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Gold Prices Float below $3,300 as Traders Look to US PCE Data with Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty Looming

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  • May 30, 2025
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Gold prices are kept in check below the $3,300 level as tame U.S. Dollar firmness puts pressure to the downside before the highly anticipated release of the U.S. PCE Price Index. Despite the dip, downside movement appears limited amid renewed trade tensions, ongoing geopolitical risks, and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A reinstated tariff ruling and uncertainty surrounding global conflict zones have kept investor sentiment cautious, lending support to the safe-haven metal. Though technical indicators imply further downside potential, the majority of traders are in waiting mode for new impetus from U.S. inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone is watching for the next U.S. inflation data release, which has the potential to have a meaningful impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations and near-term direction for the USD and gold. • Russia-Ukraine conflict developments and Middle East ceasefire negotiations still underpin safe-haven demand for gold, offering a potential defense against further losses. • Re-imposition of Trump’s tariffs and rumors of additional trade actions could inject pressure into the markets and indirectly support gold’s appeal in risk-off conditions. • Unclear signals from Fed officials regarding the timing and probability of interest rate reductions leave markets in suspense, rendering short-term gold direction dependent on upcoming data and comments. Investors should pay close attention to the publication of the U.S. PCE Price Index since it has the potential to dramatically alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and subsequently affect gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as the lack of progress in Middle East ceasefire talks and doubts over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, continue to provide support to gold’s safe-haven allure. Furthermore, the revival of trade policy uncertainty since the reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs has added additional market volatility, which has made gold a popular hedge. In contrast, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials underscore the significance of future economic releases in informing monetary policy, leaving traders nervous and price dynamics in gold very responsive to further developments. Gold traders are monitoring the next U.S. PCE Price Index closely for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty remain in favor of gold’s safe-haven status, limiting downside even with nascent USD firmness. •  Gold stays under $3,300 due to mild U.S. Dollar strength suppressing demand. •  Markets look to the U.S. PCE Price Index, which may frame rate-cut expectations at the Fed. •  Reinstalled Trump-style tariffs introduce trade uncertainty that favors safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe keep supporting gold’s demand. •  Fed officials are still divided, sending conflicting signals on upcoming rate action. •  Technical indicators indicate bearish momentum, and there could be downside towards $3,245–$3,200. •  Resistance is at $3,325–$3,350 and the breach above might unleash fresh buying interest. Gold prices continue to weaken as market participants wait for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be released, a core inflation measure that may have implications for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The information is likely to give more guidance on whether the Fed will continue with rate cuts in the second half of the year, a consideration that has made market players conservative. Although the U.S. Dollar has been mildly firmer, prospects of a more dovish Fed position in the months ahead still underpin interest in gold as a non-yielding asset generally. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides economic statistics, growing geopolitical tensions and reviving trade policy anxieties are keeping gold in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset. The latest imposition of tariffs by a U.S. federal appeals court, along with concurrent wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have contributed to worldwide uncertainty. These together with dovish comments by several Federal Reserve officials have been adding to a watch-and-wait mood in the market that has been upholding gold as a hedge against general macroeconomic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold comes up against near-term resistance in the $3,325–$3,326 area, which has already failed to breach on higher attempts. The inability to break above the $3,300 level indicates no strong bullish strength, and short-term indicators are starting to reflect renewed selling pressure. If the price continues to have trouble below important resistance levels, a downward move to the next support zones could be expected. Yet any such sustained break above the $3,325 ceiling may initiate fresh buying interest and potentially leave the way open for a retest of upper levels. FORECAST If the future U.S. PCE figures indicate slowing inflation, this may further support Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, weakening the U.S. Dollar and driving gold prices higher. In that case, gold could see fresh buying interest, with room to test levels higher than the $3,300 mark. A continued break past the $3,325–$3,350 resistance level could prompt short-covering and propel prices towards the $3,400 area, buoyed by safe-haven demand as geopolitical and trade tensions continue to hold sway. Conversely, in the event of PCE data surprise to the upside signifying sticky inflation, it might temper hopes of near-future Fed rate cuts and enhance the U.S. Dollar, putting fresh downward pressure on gold. In such a scenario, prices might fall further, with scope to test support levels at $3,280 and potentially carry losses up to the $3,245–$3,200 region. Further dollar strength or resolve on trade and geopolitical fronts would also diminish the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to the bearish risk.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 Amid US-China Trade Optimism and USD Recovery

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  • April 28, 2025
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Gold is having trouble gaining traction below the $3,300 level as optimism towards the prospects of a US-China trade deal and a small recovery in the US Dollar bear down on the metal. Deterioration in China’s gold consumption, especially in jewelry, also weighs on the precious metal. In spite of this, geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and June Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations lend some support to gold as a safe-haven asset. Investors continue to hold back, looking to major US economic data due out this week that may bring more clarity on Fed policy expectations. Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may continue their recent fall if they are unable to hold above key support levels, but a bounce above $3,300 may set the stage for a move towards higher resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing optimism regarding a possible US-China trade deal may put pressure on gold prices, but any setbacks or reversals in trade negotiations may prompt a renewed demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Markets are on the lookout closely for signals that the Federal Reserve will make more rate cuts in the future. Any signals for more aggressive loosening will limit the US Dollar’s rebound and offer support for gold prices. •  Russia-Ukraine fighting and North Korean participation in the war continue as the primary geopolitical risks that could support demand for gold as an insurance asset if tensions increase. •  Future important economic reports such as the JOLTS job openings, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and non-farm payrolls (NFP) could have an impact on market sentiment and the policy stance of the Fed, which may give new direction to gold prices. Various important factors affecting gold prices in the short term need to be watched closely by investors. The latest news in US-China trade talks continues to be paramount, with any indication of improvement potentially diminishing safe-haven demand, whereas disappointments may provoke new buying. The Federal Reserve policy direction is also being watched, with markets assuming the possibility of rate cuts that would devalue the US Dollar and boost gold. Geopolitical tensions, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict and North Korea’s involvement, continue to support the metal’s safe-haven demand. Lastly, this week’s US economic releases, such as JOLTS, PCE, and the NFP report, are likely to give more indications on the Fed’s direction, which may create volatility in gold prices. Gold prices are still sensitive to US-China trade updates, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and geopolitical tensions. Future US economic releases, such as PCE and non-farm payrolls, may offer new direction. Investors are observing key support at $3,260 and resistance at $3,331. •  Expectations for the easing of trade tensions between the US and China are putting pressure on gold prices, with advances in the negotiations having the potential to lower safe-haven asset demand. •  A small increase in the US Dollar has been helping gold struggle below the $3,300 level, although additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have the potential to curb dollar gains. •  A year-over-year decrease of 5.96% in Chinese gold consumption, particularly in jewelry, places pressure on gold prices even as there is increased demand for gold bars and coins. • Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and North Korea’s activities, continue to benefit gold as a safe-haven asset. • Bets in the market for additional Federal Reserve rate reductions, possibly starting in June, may depress the USD and support gold prices as a non-yielding asset. • Major US reports such as the JOLTS job openings, PCE, and non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be instrumental in determining the Fed’s future policy actions and may drive gold price action. •  Gold is now probing important support at $3,260, with overhead resistance at $3,331. A decline below support would put further losses in train, while a bounce above resistance could pave the way for a reversal to the upside. Gold prices are under pressure from several sources, including expectation for a possible US-China trade agreement and a small US Dollar recovery. With trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies easing, investors are less willing to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset. And China’s decreasing demand for gold, particularly for jewelry, has also helped the prices of gold decline, since the country is among the largest consumers of gold. This falling consumption is part of more general economic headwinds, including the high price of gold that is slowing down demand for more conventional types of gold investment. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView Gold is being buoyed despite these headwinds by geopolitical uncertainty, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict that continues to fuel demand for assets that are perceived as being safer in times of uncertainty. In addition, anticipation of additional interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve may keep the US Dollar from appreciating much, providing some degree of support for gold. With markets waiting for major US economic releases, such as the JOLTS report and non-farm payrolls, there is a degree of caution, with investors seeking greater clarity on the monetary policy of the Fed and how it may affect both the Dollar and gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are now testing crucial support levels near $3,260, and a possible breakdown below here could indicate more downside risk. If the price is unable to hold this support, it could trigger a move towards the $3,225 area or even the psychological $3,200 level. On the positive side, gold encounters resistance around the $3,331-$3,332 levels, and a firm break above this level can possibly pave the way for a bounce back to the $3,366-$3,368 supply zone. A strong push above this zone can potentially pave the way for a larger rally, with the $3,400 level and higher serving as key targets for bulls. The major price action over the next few days will be largely influenced by the interaction of general economic data and geopolitical events. FORECAST Gold may see a bounce if geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, keep

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Commodities Gold

Gold Shines Bright: Prices Rally Amid Dollar Weakness and Trade Uncertainty

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  • April 19, 2025
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Gold prices ended the week on a high, gaining more than 2.79% as escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and a declining US Dollar stoked investor appetite for the safe-haven metal. Although hawkish rhetoric by Federal Reserve policymakers, such as Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, momentarily capped gains briefly, gold still managed to maintain above critical technical levels. The precious metal nudged a fresh all-time high of $3,358 before easing back marginally to $3,326, as market participants booked profits ahead of the long Easter break. Looking forward, all attention is fixed on US economic releases ahead, which will determine the next move of the dollar and the gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • Next week’s releases, which are the S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan final Consumer Sentiment report, will all be closely watched by traders and could decide gold’s next move. •  A crowded calendar of Fed speakers may provide new information on interest rate expectations, particularly following Powell’s recent hawkish comments that signaled ongoing policy tightening. • Gold is still in an uptrend, with $3,300 as pivotal support and the $3,350–$3,400 area providing the next resistance area. A break above would indicate new all-time highs. • Prolonged global trade tensions and geopolitical concerns are set to continue propping up gold safe-haven demand, despite the rise in real yields and Fed caution. Gold traders will continue to focus on some significant catalysts which may direct price action over the next few days. A hectic US economic calendar, with Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, will provide new hints about the state of the economy and possible interest rate action. In addition, a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials may back up or undermine the market’s existing rate assumptions, particularly in the wake of Powell’s recent hawkish comments. On the technical front, gold still trades above key support levels at $3,300, and a move through $3,350 may pave the way for a new record high. At the same time, unresolved trade tensions and geopolitical threats are set to continue keeping safe-haven demand active, supporting bullion beneath on-the-nose real yields rising. Gold traders will look to next week’s US economic releases and Fed speeches for new rate signals. Technical levels in the $3,300–$3,350 range continue to be key to direction. Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty should continue to support safe-haven demand. •  Gold prices rallied more than 2.79% this week, driven by a weaker US Dollar as global trade tensions and geopolitical risks escalate. •  XAU/USD reached a record high of $3,358 before profit-taking took prices back to $3,326 in the run-up to the extended Easter weekend. •  Federal Reserve’s hawkishness, including comments by Powell and Daly, capped further gains but not the trend for gold prices to the upside. •  US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.333%, with real yields increasing — posing short-term headwinds for gold prices. •  Technical perspective is bullish as far as prices remain above the $3,300 support level, with sights on $3,350 and $3,400 as the next goals. •  Investors look ahead to a packed week of US data, which includes Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Sentiment, for new direction in the markets. •  Continued trade and geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin safe-haven demand for gold despite rising real yields. Gold closed the week on an upbeat note as international trade tensions and geopolitical risks continued to push investors towards safe-haven assets. Even with assurances from the Federal Reserve on the robustness of the U.S. economy, ongoing worries surrounding global trade policy and possible slowdowns in the economy maintained the demand for gold firm. Market sentiment was also affected by increasing perceptions that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance could stay restrictive for a longer period, contributing to the risk-averse sentiment in global markets. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides trade and policy issues, investor attention is also being diverted towards next week’s release of some of the most important U.S. economic indicators, which will provide further insight into the state of the economy. A busy slate, which includes manufacturing activity, durable goods orders, and consumer sentiment readings, is likely to frame market expectations for the period ahead. Geopolitical tensions and worldwide uncertainty, however, are expected to maintain gold as an asset of choice for risk-averse investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s upmove is intact despite experiencing some profit-taking pressure after hitting its all-time high of $3,358. The precious metal still maintains above the crucial support level of $3,300, indicating that buyers are still present on pullbacks. A break above the $3,350 level for a sustained period could pave the way for another attempt towards the $3,400 psychological mark. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests overbought levels, the absence of substantial downside follow-through suggests limited selling interest at this time. So long as prices hold above the April 16 low of $3,229, the larger uptrend is likely to remain intact. FORECAST Gold’s upmove is firmly supported as long as prices are above the $3,300 level. A decisive break over $3,350 may see fresh buying strength, setting the stage for a possible retest of the record high at $3,358. If tensions in global trade and geopolitical uncertainties continue, safe-haven buying could intensify, driving gold to the next psychological level of $3,400. On the negative side, any inability to stay above the $3,300 support line may result in a more profound correction, with the next support being close to the April 16 low of $3,229. Increasing US real yields and Federal Reserve hawkish hints may dampen gold’s attractiveness in the short term, raising the chances of a pullback if economic reports surprise to the upside.

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