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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls on Robust US Jobs Data but Remains Ahead of Key Fed Meeting

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  • June 7, 2025
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Gold prices fell for a second consecutive day after a better-than-expected US May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data sapped optimism for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut and strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Even though it dropped 0.84% on Friday to $3,322, XAU/USD is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30%, underpinned by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. Traders are now looking forward to next week’s inflation data releases and the Fed policy meeting soon, as the market re-adjusts for monetary easing further down the line in 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The strong NFP data lowers expectations for near-term rate reductions, with markets now pricing fewer than two cuts by the end of 2025. • XAU/USD needs to stay above the key $3,300 support or risk further losses down to $3,250 or lower. • Next week’s CPI, PPI, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment could continue to drive market sentiment and Fed policy expectations. • Tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East, and constant central bank gold buying, continue to offer a positive environment for Gold. Gold prices declined on Friday after a better-than-expected US jobs report strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields and lowered chances of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Even after the day’s loss, XAU/USD is still up more than 1.30% for the week, buoyed by persistent geopolitical tensions and consistent central bank buying. The market is now setting its sights on pivotal US inflation data releases later next week, which may further influence expectations leading up to the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting. Staying above the $3,300 support level is still vital for Gold to continue its bullish configuration in the near term. Gold declined following robust US jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the Dollar and yields higher. Gold maintains weekly gains above 1.30% despite the decline, underpinned by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. •  Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 0.84% on Friday, trading around $3,322 following robust US NFP data. •  The US created 139K jobs in May, topping estimates and maintaining the unemployment level at 4.2%. • Hawkish data prompted traders to trim back Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. • Gold is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30% despite losses on each day of the current week. • Key support for XAU/USD at $3,300 holds; a break here could see $3,250 or lower. • Market attention turns to next week’s US CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment releases. •  Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing geopolitics risks and central bank gold purchases. Gold was strong this week despite being challenged by a stronger-than-forecast US Nonfarm Payrolls for May. The on-going strength in the labor market, with 139K new jobs added and unemployment remaining at 4.2%, supported the view that the US economy is still strong. This information changed market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory, prompting investors to reduce rate reduction bets in the short term. This caused the US Dollar and Treasury yields to rise, which temporarily weakened Gold prices. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nonetheless, wider macroeconomic and geopolitical forces underpin the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset. Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and persistent uncertainty among global financial markets have sustained demand for bullion. Further, central banks continue to buy Gold to diversify away from US Dollar reserves. These structural forces might still underpin the long-term value of Gold irrespective of short-term volatility in economic fundamentals or market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in an extended bull trend despite recent retreats. The price is consolidating above the support level of $3,300, which is a pivotal base for continued upward momentum. A breakout and hold above this level may set the stage for a retest of the high of late at $3,403, with additional upside to the $3,450 level and all-time high of $3,500. However, if XAU/USD breaches below $3,300, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly bearish, suggesting a possible continuation of short-term weakness before any rebound. FORECAST If Gold holds resistance above the $3,300 level, bullish interest may resume, which could propel XAU/USD back towards the recent high of $3,403. A breach above that level could attract additional buying, taking prices up to the $3,450 resistance zone. If bullish sentiment gains strength, particularly against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions or low inflation readings, Gold may even test its record high near $3,500 in the sessions ahead. On the other hand, a firm break below the $3,300 support would activate a steeper correction. In that case, Gold can go down towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235, followed by the next major support area around $3,167, which was the high of early April. Strength in the US Dollar and increasing yields can provide additional pressure on the downside, especially if coming inflation data supports a hawkish Fed outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dips on Trade Optimism but Resists Bets on Fed Cut and Geopolitical Threats

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  • May 26, 2025
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Gold prices began the week on a weaker footing, dragged by weakening safe-haven demand as US-EU trade optimism picked up following President Trump’s postponement of planned tariffs. Still, the negative seems contained as fears about the US fiscal situation, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and increasing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations continue to underpin the yellow metal. Although the recent decline, technicals and overall fundamentals indicate any drop is likely to be considered a buying opportunity, with major support at $3,325 and major resistance at $3,400–$3,500 levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will be looking closely at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for hints regarding the timing and magnitude of expected interest rate reductions, which can play a huge role in determining the price of gold. • All-important data releases such as Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday), Preliminary GDP (Thursday), and the PCE Price Index (Friday) will give more indication of the health of the US economy and influence market sentiment. • Rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and whatever fresh sanctions or reactions from major powers, will continue to be key drivers of safe-haven appetite for gold. • The $3,325–$3,324 trendline is support, with a break lower potentially challenging $3,300 and $3,283. On the upside, breaking above $3,366 could set the stage for $3,400, $3,430, and perhaps the all-time high at $3,500. Gold prices continue in the spotlight as markets await economic indicators and geopolitical events. This week, the spotlight will be on the release of the FOMC minutes and significant US data such as Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and the PCE Price Index, which have the potential to influence expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, ongoing worries about the US fiscal deficit and rising geopolitical tensions—specifically in Ukraine and the Middle East—are set to maintain safe-haven demand. From a technical perspective, gold is clinging to support around $3,325, and a move above $3,366 could set the stage for a break towards the $3,400–$3,500 zone, maintaining bullish strength. Gold prices are supported by prospects of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions despite pressure from weakening safe-haven demand. Gold prices will be watched for new directions this week by traders as they await key US data and FOMC minutes. A break above $3,366 can propel towards the $3,400–$3,500 zone. • Gold prices softened slightly as optimism in trade alleviated safe-haven demand after President Trump postponed EU tariffs. • Support is in place as Fed rate cut expectations continue to rise on weak US inflation and slowing growth. • Geopolitical uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to support gold demand. • US fiscal worries escalate as Trump’s budget bill threatens to exacerbate the budget deficit, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge. • The US Dollar falls, reaching a new monthly low, supporting gold prices by making foreign purchases less expensive. • FOMC minutes and economic data from the US such as GDP and PCE Index are major events this week that will determine the direction of gold. • Technicals indicate support at $3,325–$3,324, and resistance at $3,366; a breakout can reach the $3,400–$3,500 levels. Gold prices began the week on weaker footing as declining trade tensions between the US and the European Union lessened the urgent demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump’s announcement to postpone the imposition of a 50% tariff on the EU boosted optimism across global markets, leading investors to take on a more risk-on stance. Yet, that optimism is moderated by ongoing fears of the US fiscal situation, after the passing of a huge budget bill that has the potential to greatly expand the federal deficit in the years ahead. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks remain the support for gold’s attractiveness. The Ukraine war, combined with elevated Middle East tensions, keeps investors on edge and underpins demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates later this year—fuelled by disappointing inflation readings and a slowing growth picture—contribute to the bullish tone around the metal. With global uncertainty persisting, gold continues to be a popular hedge against economic turmoil and political shocks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still underpinned by a wider bullish pattern, and recent price action continues to look resilient above important trendline levels. In spite of a minor pullback, the metal continues to be traded in an uptrend channel, reflecting continued buying interest on dips. Momentum indicators on the hourly and daily charts continue to reflect a positive bias, which indicates that any downside is going to be contained. So long as gold remains above near-term supports, the current trend benefits buyers with scope for continuation higher if bull sentiment advances. FORECAST Prices of gold can continue higher in the next sessions with support from dovish expectations over monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. With markets already factoring in several rate reductions this year because of dampening inflation and a slow economic environment, falling interest rates may further erode the strength of the US Dollar and make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions as well as fears regarding US fiscal health are set to maintain strong investor appetite for safe-haven assets. If bullishness prevails, gold may revisit key psychological points, with room to test old highs. On the bearish side, gold may come under pressure if trade sentiment continues to improve or if near-term US macroeconomic data surprises to the upside, reducing the need for rate cuts. Any indications of resilience in inflation or better-than-forecast economic data would lead to a more hawkish stance by the Fed, favoring the US Dollar and making gold less appealing. Although overall fundamentals remain generally favorable, any short-term change could come from a fleeting shift in risk appetite or profit-taking if support levels are broken.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Staggers Despite Growing Appetite for Risk and Strengthening USD, but Bets on Fed Rate Cut Provide Comfort

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  • May 1, 2025
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Gold prices are now down for a third day in a row, having plunged to a two-week low, as a stronger US Dollar and better risk appetite—fuelled by a reduction in US-China tensions and positive trade rhetoric—tarnish the demand for the safe-haven metal. But the drawback looks limited as disappointing US macroeconomic data, such as a surprise GDP decline and lower inflation readings, drive expectations for dovish Federal Reserve rate cuts. These expectations, in turn, limit USD appreciation and give gold a cushion. Investors now look to important US economic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for more definitive guidance on the Fed’s policy course and gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Focus in the market is on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may have a major impact on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and gold’s direction. •  Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Lower GDP and softening inflation add to expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, which may cap USD strength and prop up gold prices. •  Geopolitical Updates: Any strengthening of geopolitical tensions, especially including Russia or US-China relations, might reactivate safe-haven demand for gold. •  Technical Levels under Scrutiny: A confirmed breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support level could trigger further downtrends towards $3,200 and $3,160, while attempts to recover are repelled at $3,260–$3,265 and $3,300. Multiple important factors that can influence the metal’s short-term direction are being closely observed by gold traders. All attention is now focused on forthcoming US economic data, especially the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may impact hopes surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Softer inflation and a shock GDP contraction earlier have already fueled market expectations for deep rate cuts, potentially curbing additional gains for the USD and underpinning gold. Geopolitical threats, particularly escalating tensions between Russia and events in US-China relations, also continue to be in the spotlight as possible drivers of safe-haven flows. Technically, a persistent breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support area could pave the way for further losses, while resistance around $3,265 and $3,300 could limit attempts at recovery. Gold’s short-term prospects are contingent upon pivotal US data releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls release, and shifting Fed rate cut expectations. Geopolitical uncertainty and USD strength will also be influential, with technical support at $3,229 continuing to be paramount for direction of price. • Gold prices are under pressure, near a two-week low due to firmer USD and risk-friendly sentiment. •  US-China trade optimism and easing tensions are lifting investor sentiment, lowering demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  US Dollar strength is suppressing gold, underpinned by positive sentiment and hawkish comments. •  Soft US macro data—such as a surprise contraction in GDP and weaker inflation—are fueling hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. •  Markets now expect as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through year-end, which could top USD gains and underpin gold. •  Geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe, could give a safety bid and cap gold’s downside. •  Key technical levels to monitor are support at $3,229 and resistance at $3,265–$3,300, which will determine short-term price action. Gold still wanders through a geopolitical and macroeconomic maze, where market sentiment is influenced by a mix of economic instability and changing international dynamics. The recent relaxation of US-China tensions and upbeat trade talks have heightened investor optimism, limiting the attractiveness of conventional safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, improved US Dollar performance with supportive comments about international trade agreements has dampened demand for gold. This notwithstanding, gold is being underpinned by increasing fear about the US economy’s health, as demonstrated by a surprising GDP contraction and decelerating private sector hiring. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Inflationary pressure also seems to be abating, with the most recent information indicating a deceleration in both headline and core inflation. These events have reinforced market expectations of further aggressive interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve over the next few months. As market players adjust strategies to meet new economic data and central bank cues, gold still has some underlying support. At the same time, lingering geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to Russia and Eastern Europe, continue to introduce uncertainty that can maintain interest in the precious metal as a long-term hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently fell below the crucial support range of $3,265–$3,260, prompting a cascade of selling pressure and driving prices to a two-week low of $3,221. Although momentum indicators have begun to lose bullish momentum, a clear break below the next significant support at $3,229–$3,228 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would affirm a bearish continuation towards the $3,200 level and potentially the $3,160 zone. On the upside, any recovery attempts may face resistance near the $3,260–$3,265 zone, followed by stronger barriers around the $3,300 mark and the $3,348–$3,350 supply region, where renewed selling interest could emerge. FORECAST If upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls report, reinforces expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold could find renewed support and begin to recover. A softer labor market or softer inflation numbers can heighten pressure on the Fed to cut policy, softening the US Dollar and making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Gold prices in such a case can recover towards the $3,300 mark and even retest higher resistance levels if risk-off sentiment returns owing to geopolitical tensions or global economic issues. On the other hand, in case the US economic data surprise positively—indicating resilience in the labor market or more sticky inflation—market expectations of Fed rate cuts diminish, a stronger USD results, and gold comes under additional downward pressure. Continued absence of safe-haven demand on account of bettering risk sentiment, particularly following positive global trade updates, could also be responsible for further losses. If gold falls below the $3,229 support level decisively, it may lead to a deeper correction towards $3,200 and even the $3,160 region in

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Below $2,910 on Increasing US Yields and Firm Job Growth

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  • March 8, 2025
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Gold prices declined below $2,910 as US Treasury yields bounced back after the release of the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, which revealed firm job growth though missing estimates. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, reaffirmed that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, maintaining monetary policy intact for the time being. Although inflation is still a worry, Powell made it clear that the journey to 2% inflation will be rough. Central banks such as China’s PBoC and Poland’s NBP also continue to build up their gold reserves, giving some support to the metal. But increasing US real yields and declining geopolitical tensions capped gold’s upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • A US Treasury yield rebound can continue to put pressure on gold prices, particularly with increasing real yields affecting gold’s attractiveness. • The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates and Powell’s inflation remarks indicate that monetary policy will be tight, capping gold’s potential. • Softening geopolitical tensions, especially in Ukraine and Russia negotiations, may dampen gold’s safe-haven demand and pressure prices. • Continuous gold buying by large central banks such as China and Poland might offer price-supporting underlying fundamentals, counteracting general market pressure. Prices in gold are being pressured downwards by US Treasury yields recovering and real yields increasing, which has been historically inversely affecting gold’s attractiveness. The Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizing that achieving 2% inflation will be a “bumpy” process, suggesting that interest rates will stay steady for the time being. Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, have also reduced the safe-haven demand for gold. But central banks, such as China’s PBoC and Poland’s NBP, keep on taking gold, which should lend some underlying support to the precious metal in spite of overall market difficulties. Gold prices are in pressure because US Treasury yields move higher and the Fed indicates a stable direction for interest rates. Although softening geopolitical tensions lower safe-haven demand, central bank buying, especially by China and Poland, lends some support to gold prices. • Gold drops below $2,910 as US Treasury yields recover, exerting downward pressure on the metal. • The February Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates consistent job growth, with 151K jobs created, though missing expectations. • Federal Reserve officials, including Jerome Powell, indicate no hurry to reduce rates, stressing the necessity of a cautious approach to inflation. • Powell reaffirms that the path to 2% inflation will be “bumpy,” maintaining monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future. • Ukraine-Russia progress and US pressure on Hamas lower gold’s safe-haven demand, capping gains for the metal. • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and Poland’s National Bank (NBP) have added gold reserves, with Poland purchasing the most since 2019. • US real yields, especially on 10-year TIPS, rise, presenting a headwind to gold prices by lowering its relative attractiveness. Gold prices are under pressure following increases in US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve holding firm on interest rates. The latest US jobs report evidenced stable growth within the labor market with more joining the workforce while numbers fell short of expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the central bank isn’t in any hurry to cut rates, given that the route to 2% inflation is uncertain and tough. This risk-averse policy stance has caused a more balanced economic outlook, taking away some of the gold’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, relaxing geopolitical tensions, especially between Russia and Ukraine, have reduced the need for gold as a safe haven from world uncertainties. Improvement in ceasefire negotiations, coupled with a reduction in tensions in the Middle East, has also dampened gold’s presence in investors’ portfolios. In the meantime, central banks such as China’s People’s Bank of China and Poland’s National Bank are still buying gold, offering some sustained support to the metal. These central bank interventions, together with a strengthening global economic outlook, could assist in stabilizing gold prices in the face of wider market pressures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are met with resistance at the $2,930 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating that there is still room for additional upside. The metal has, however, been unable to climb above this mark, signifying a period of consolidation. A fall below the $2,900 level might indicate further downside risk, with the next significant support levels being the February 28 low of $2,832 and the $2,800 level. On the other hand, a break above $2,930 could pave the way for a possible rally towards $2,950 and even $3,000, if momentum keeps accelerating. The market is still in a tight consolidation, with the price action of gold very closely related to movements in US Treasury yields and general market sentiment. FORECAST If gold can break above the current levels of resistance, notably the $2,930 level, prices could have the potential to rise further. A sustained rally could have gold pushing through the $2,950 level, with a possibility of reaching the all-time high of $2,954. If momentum keeps gaining and overall market conditions are supportive, like further central bank gold buying and geopolitical tensions, the $3,000 mark could come into view. Also, if inflation remains in play or the Fed is signaling to postpone rate cuts, gold might attract even more strength as a hedge against economic uncertainty. On the negative side, if gold is unable to hold above the $2,900 level, further selling could be witnessed. A breakdown below this level would likely lead to a move towards the February 28 low of $2,832, followed by a possible test of the $2,800 support. Increasing real yields and a firmer US dollar can continue to depress gold, as it becomes less appealing relative to other assets. If the US economy continues to demonstrate strength, with the Fed still being aggressive on rates, gold may see further pressure, potentially pulling prices down in the near term.

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