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Gold Bulls Hold Ground as Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Uncertainty Push XAU/USD to Record Highs

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  • September 12, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is holding its ground near record highs as a mix of Fed rate cut speculation, a soft US Dollar, and heightened geopolitical tensions power safe-haven demand. Weaker US labor market data and softer inflation have eclipsed more robust inflation, underpinning expectations for sharp policy easing by the Federal Reserve, and increased political instability in France and Japan, rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, and Middle East unrest further add to the attractions of gold. In spite of overbought sentiment and bullish market tone capping aggressive purchases, the metal is poised for a fourth straight week of robust gains, with the potential for further gains to $3,700. KEY LOOKOUTS • Three rate cuts this year are fully priced in by markets, beginning with a 25 bps cut next FOMC meeting. • USD stays down at multi-month lows as Treasury yields fall to five-month low, underpinning gold prices. • Safe-haven demand is fueled by rising tensions from Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East instability, and fresh trade sanctions. • Major resistance is at $3,675–$3,700, with short-term support at $3,630 and more heavily at $3,580–$3,560. Prices for gold are remaining close to historic highs as investors persist in preferring the metal against the backdrop of anticipated multiple cuts in Fed rates and continued geopolitical tensions. Weaker than expected US labor market data strengthened the argument for drastic monetary easing, keeping the US Dollar weak and Treasury yields at multi-month lows that in turn support non-yielding gold. Rising tensions in Russia and Ukraine, political upheavals in Europe and Asia, and continuing trade frictions also add to the metal’s safe-haven attraction. In spite of overbought technical levels, the overall outlook is bullish, and gold is headed for its fourth straight week of gains. Gold remains near record levels as Fed rate cut expectations and a soft US Dollar fuel safe-haven demand. Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties additionally support the bullish momentum, keeping the metal headed for weekly gains. • Gold (XAU/USD) remains near record levels on the back of Fed rate cut expectations. • Mild US labor market indicators have taken attention away from high inflation readings, adding to policy easing speculation. • Three Fed rate cuts are being priced in this year, beginning at the next FOMC meeting. • US Dollar is at multi-month lows as Treasury yields reach a five-month trough. • Geopolitical tensions from Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East unrest, political instability in France and Japan enhance safe-haven demand. • Technical analysis indicates resistance at $3,675–$3,700 and support at $3,630–$3,580 levels. • Gold is poised for its fourth straight week of solid gains on the back of overbought levels. Gold remains in high demand with investors as hopes for several Federal Reserve rate reductions linger strongly on the US Dollar and underpin demand for the haven metal. Weaker US labor market reports have overshadowed stronger inflation reports to further cement the argument for aggressive monetary easing throughout the year. With Treasury yields trending downward to multi-month lows, the non-yielding yellow metal is still a popular choice for investors looking for stability in uncertain times. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In addition to monetary policy, increasing geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in major economies further increase gold’s appeal. The Russia-Ukraine war, continuing instability in the Middle East, and trade pressures on international markets have all contributed to safe-haven inflows. Furthermore, political unrest in France and Japan contribute to the uncertain environment, making gold a choice asset for risk-shy investors and keeping sentiment decidedly supportive. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold holds a bullish setup by trading near all-time highs, although overbought daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings warrant caution. Near-term resistance is in the $3,657–$3,675 area, with a broken trendline above opening the door for the psychological $3,700 level. On the flip side, near support is at $3,630, and then at $3,612 and $3,600, which are solid cushions, which, if broken, might initiate a bigger correction towards the $3,580–$3,560 area. Technically, the outlook remains positive for buyers as long as gold remains above its crucial support levels. FORECAST Gold is well-placed to carry on with its rally as Fed rate cut hopes, muted US Dollar, and geopolitical tensions continue to present a favorable situation. A clean break above the $3,675–$3,700 level may pave the way for new all-time highs, with momentum propelling prices towards the $3,720–$3,750 level. Safe-haven demand, along with continued US yield weakness, is set to support bullish sentiment in the short term. Conversely, overbought technical levels and an overall upbeat risk sentiment may cap aggressive purchases, prompting profit-taking in the near term. Gold may test lower levels at $3,600 and $3,580 if it falls below the $3,630 support level, with a deeper correction laying bare the $3,560–$3,510 area. Although the underlying picture is favorable, short-term declines cannot be discounted as investors book profits following recent record prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Slips as Risk-On Sentiment and USD Uptick Weigh Before US CPI Report

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  • September 11, 2025
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Gold prices dipped on Thursday due to a higher risk-on sentiment across global equities and a slight rise in the US Dollar that prompted profit-taking on the precious metal. Though the safe-haven demand for gold softened as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei set all-time highs, hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week still hold back the downside. Geopolitical tensions, trade-related uncertainty, and political instability in Europe and Asia are also supporting losses, and now traders wait for the US CPI numbers for new direction on monetary policy and gold’s short-term fortunes. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be key to influencing expectations of the Fed’s next rate action. • Markets overwhelmingly expect a September rate cut, and some are factoring in the potential for a jumbo cut. • Increasing dangers of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO intervention, and fresh sanctions can bolster safe-haven demand. • Global equities’ record highs are taking away from gold’s traditional safe-haven status. Gold moves lower on Thursday as market players turn to riskier assets with record gains on world equities and a modest recovery in the US Dollar. The yellow metal is unable to build on its recent advance, although loss is capped by strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week and increased geopolitical tensions. Traders are now focusing on the next US CPI reading for new hints about the Fed’s policy course, which has the potential to deliver the next significant directional catalyst for gold. Gold dips as a firmer risk-on sentiment and a small USD recovery test the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, expectations for Fed rate cuts and the threat of geopolitics will act as a buffer against the downside in advance of the US CPI report. • Gold drifts down on Thursday with risk-on sentiment prevailing across global markets. • All-time highs in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei weaken safe-haven demand. • Slight US Dollar upturn contributes to pressure on gold prices. • Anticipation of rate cuts by the Fed next week caps the downside for the yellow metal. • US CPI report awaited for new policy signals and direction in the markets. • Geopolitical tensions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and fresh sanctions are supportive. •  Technical levels indicate $3,600 as short-term support, with resistance around $3,658–$3,675. Gold is trading cautiously as investors balance a positive risk-on sentiment in global markets with expectations of future Federal Reserve policy easing. All-time records in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei have diminished the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets, leading some to profit-taking in the yellow metal. Meanwhile, recent weakness in US producer price data has underpinned speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates at its policy meeting next week, maintaining gold at bay despite prevailing selling pressure. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from economic signals, geopolitical and political concerns are still in play as far as influencing investor attitudes towards gold. With tensions in the Russia-Ukraine crisis heightened further due to NATO involvement, coupled with an air of uncertainty within France and Japan, the safe-haven appeal of the metal is still emphasized. Trade tensions such as tariffs and sanctions enforced by the US are another risk component in the broader picture. These considerations are set to maintain gold in the spotlight as investors await the US CPI report for further direction on what the Fed is likely to do next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is displaying indications of short-term consolidation as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels, indicating the possibility of a brief pause or soft correction. Support is close by around the $3,600 mark, with more substantial cushions at $3,580 if selling continues. To the upside, there is resistance at $3,649–$3,658, with a retest of the all-time high at about $3,675 likely if investors are able to push higher. A sustained break above this range would clear the way towards the psychological $3,700 level. FORECAST Gold may pick up again on the upside if the next US CPI report indicates easing inflation, solidifying bets for swift Fed rate cuts. Any validation of gentler price pressures would probably top the US Dollar’s bounce and increase the demand for the non-yielding precious metal. In that case, gold could test its recent highs near $3,675, with the possibility to extend gains towards the $3,700 psychological level. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties could also sustain bullish conviction. Conversely, solid US CPI readings may temper hopes for rapid Fed policy easing, sparking renewed demand for the US Dollar and suppressing gold prices. The risk-on mood in equity markets may continue to undermine safe-haven inflows into gold. Here, prices would fall towards $3,600, with a steeper decline towards $3,580 if the selling pressure mounts further. Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical concerns should keep a steep corrective fall in check.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls on Modest USD Strength, but Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Provide Support

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  • August 4, 2025
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Gold prices started the week lower, pulling back from recent highs as the US Dollar recovered some ground against a modest rise in Treasury yields. But the negative for the precious metal seems to be in short supply given rising market hopes for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, political tension over the Fed’s independence, and rising geopolitical tensions following the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia. All this continues to support gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, and the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish even with short-term ups and downs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing speculation of a rate cut continues to limit USD strength and underpins gold prices. • Deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia increases safe-haven demand in the face of increasing global uncertainty. • Deterioration in weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers and revisions signal a slowing economy, supporting gold. • Look for support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,370–$3,400 for possible breakout or pullback signals. Gold prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week as reduced Treasury yield pressures allowed the US Dollar to recover some ground. This slight fall aside, the forward-looking precious metal continues to be supported by increasing anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has moderated wider USD advances. Further, geopolitical uncertainties—specifically the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia—are also lending additional support to gold’s safe-haven status. Traders are now looking to future US economic data and risk sentiment for guidance on the next move for XAU/USD. Gold price inches lower on modest USD strength but is underpinned by expectations of Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical tensions. Market attention now turns to release of US economic data and overall risk appetite for further guidance. • Gold price retreated from more than one-week high at $3,369 on fresh USD buying. • Modest recovery in US Treasury yields underpinned the US Dollar, driving gold prices lower. • September Fed rate cut hopes remain to cap non-yielding gold’s downside. • Soft US jobs data, including below-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls, fueled rate cut expectations. • Political tension surrounding the independence of the Fed is suppressing aggressive USD rebound. • Geopolitical concerns escalated after the US sent nuclear submarines to the vicinity of Russia. • Technical support remains at $3,300, and a breach above $3,370 may lead to $3,400+. Gold still draws the interest of investors amidst a complicated combination of economic and geopolitical events. Although the metal started the week weaker, its long-term attraction is firm because market belief is increasingly building that the Federal Reserve is moving towards the start of a rate-cutting cycle, perhaps in September. The latest US jobs report, which recorded a significant slowdown in job recruitment and a rise in unemployment, has added to the perception that the US economy is slowing. This supports the case for softer interest rates, which have traditionally helped gold since it does not pay interest and tends to thrive in low-rate conditions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, political uncertainty is growing. The impromptu removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics by President Trump and the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor have spooked the market with fears over the independence of the Fed. The incidents raise the wariness of investors and improve the attraction of safe-haven instruments such as gold. Geopolitical tensions also continue to mount, with the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia in response to aggressive rhetoric, adding further to concerns of international instability. These considerations together create a solid fundamental underpin for gold over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the resistance level of $3,335 recently and also above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Oscillators are becoming positively more bullish, indicating ongoing dip-buying interest near support levels. Primary support now resides in the vicinity of $3,340–$3,338, with additional buying anticipated near $3,320 if that does come under test. On the positive side, a continued move through the new high of $3,369–$3,370 would seal the bullish trend and leave the way open toward the psychological $3,400 level, potentially retesting the all-time high around $3,500 if support persists. FORECAST If positive sentiment prevails, fueled by a hoped-for September Fed rate cut and increased geopolitical tensions, gold might reattack the $3,370 resistance level. A breach above this region may trigger a retest of the $3,400 psychological level. Continued buying and positive risk-off sentiment might even propel the metal to the $3,434–$3,435 obstacle, and ultimately, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 is still in play if uncertainty in the world continues. Conversely, if the US Dollar continues to appreciate further based on more robust-than-expected economic data or a more aggressive Fed stance, gold could experience selling pressure. Support begins around the $3,340–$3,338 area, which lines up with the 100-period SMA. A firm break below this zone could set further losses in motion towards $3,320, and sustained losses might take the price towards the make-or-break $3,300 level. A violation of this mark could turn momentum in the bears’ direction.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Retains Mild Gains Prior to FOMC; Strong US Dollar Puts Upside on a Lid

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  • July 29, 2025
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Gold prices are trading with a mild positive bias on Tuesday, trying to stage a recovery from a multi-week low in the vicinity of the $3,300 region after fresh safe-haven interest was stirred up by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty before the FOMC policy decision. Although optimism around trade and continued US-China negotiations provides some respite, the potential upside continues to be capped by a stronger US Dollar as it is sustained by expectations of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period. Investors are waiting and want to see important cues from the Fed statement and Chair Powell’s speech that will define the short-term trajectory of the XAU/USD pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Fed interest rate move and Chair Powell’s speech this week are awaited by markets for leads on the rate path ahead, which may trigger significant gold moves. • The USD is solid in expectations of extended higher interest rates, serving as a significant headwind to gold’s potential upside. • Concerns over the Russia-Ukraine crisis and US-China trade talks continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. • Important resistance is at $3,340 and $3,367, with the possibility of further decline to the $3,260 support area on a break below $3,300. Gold prices are exhibiting minor gains above the $3,300 mark as investors anticipate Wednesday’s pivotal FOMC policy announcement. While the metal is supported by safe-haven demand in the face of geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions, its bullishness is capped by the ongoing strength of the US Dollar underpinned by expectations of extending higher interest rates. Investors are holding back and awaiting direction from the Federal Reserve on future monetary policy, as well as keeping an eye on US economic indicators and world risk appetite for short-term guidance. Gold prices trade with marginal gains above $3,300 on amid cautious market sentiment before the FOMC announcement. The strong US Dollar and expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside, and safe-haven demand provides limited support. • Gold price trades with a mild positive bias above the $3,300 level, bouncing back from a multi-week low. • Safe-haven demand finds support for gold amidst continued geopolitical tensions and global trade news. • The US Dollar continues to be solid, capping the potential for gold higher on expectations of sustained higher interest rates. • Traders are hesitant prior to the FOMC rate decision, anticipating no rate move but wanting clues on subsequent policy. • Technical resistance is around $3,340–$3,368, and key support is at $3,260–$3,255, just near the 100-day SMA. • Optimism over US-China and US-EU trade fills in a positive note, but insufficient to fuel aggressive gold buying. • Future US economic releases (JOLTS, Consumer Confidence) can potentially drive near-term USD action and affect gold prices. Gold prices are holding firm above the $3,300 threshold as investor attention is turned to this week’s pivotal FOMC policy announcement. With the Federal Reserve strongly anticipated to hold interest rates steady, market players are eagerly awaiting any indication of potential future rate actions that may influence larger financial market directions. The risk-averse sentiment among traders is an indicator of skepticism regarding the policy direction of the US central bank, particularly in the face of sticky inflation and pockets of economic strength. Meanwhile, gold keeps gaining modestly from its safe-haven demand as investors respond to global geopolitical events. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Compounding market mood is also a new wave of trade-related optimism following recent US agreements with the EU and Japan. In addition, pre-scheduled negotiations between US and Chinese top leaders indicate continued attempts to contain economic tensions between the world’s largest two economies. At the same time, geopolitical tensions related to Russia and Ukraine, especially in the wake of the US President’s fresh deadline and warning on sanctions, maintain global risk sentiment nervous. All these factors together provide a conservative but bull market environment for gold, despite the US Dollar remaining steadfast. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is finding it hard to pierce the near resistance area of $3,340–$3,368, which has thwarted recent attempts at recovery. The persistent inability to hold above this point indicates the establishment of a possible multiple top pattern on the daily chart. Further, momentum indicators have begun to reflect bearish divergence, indicating waning bullish bias. If prices slide beneath the $3,300 psychological level, then it may lead to further losses towards the $3,260–$3,255 support area, which coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and may act as a decisive pivot area for the next move. FORECAST If gold is able to hold above the $3,300 mark and break over the nearest resistance of $3,340, then it may lead to a short-covering rally. A break decisively above the $3,368 level can potentially pave the way for a further upward move to the psychological $3,400 level. Sustained strength here could drive prices towards the $3,434–$3,435 area, with scope to test the all-time high in the vicinity of $3,500 if positive sentiment gains more momentum, particularly on back of dovish Fed hints or escalating geopolitical tensions. On the negative side, inability to maintain the $3,300 support level may confirm the bearish bias and intensify declines towards the $3,260–$3,255 area, a crucial region demarcated by the 100-day SMA. Sinking below this area may trigger further selling pressure, potentially pushing gold prices down towards the $3,230 level or even $3,200 in the near future. Continuing USD strength or a more hawkish Fed tone may further dampen the metal and intensify the corrective move.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls on Robust US Jobs Data but Remains Ahead of Key Fed Meeting

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  • June 7, 2025
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Gold prices fell for a second consecutive day after a better-than-expected US May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data sapped optimism for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut and strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Even though it dropped 0.84% on Friday to $3,322, XAU/USD is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30%, underpinned by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. Traders are now looking forward to next week’s inflation data releases and the Fed policy meeting soon, as the market re-adjusts for monetary easing further down the line in 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The strong NFP data lowers expectations for near-term rate reductions, with markets now pricing fewer than two cuts by the end of 2025. • XAU/USD needs to stay above the key $3,300 support or risk further losses down to $3,250 or lower. • Next week’s CPI, PPI, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment could continue to drive market sentiment and Fed policy expectations. • Tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East, and constant central bank gold buying, continue to offer a positive environment for Gold. Gold prices declined on Friday after a better-than-expected US jobs report strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields and lowered chances of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Even after the day’s loss, XAU/USD is still up more than 1.30% for the week, buoyed by persistent geopolitical tensions and consistent central bank buying. The market is now setting its sights on pivotal US inflation data releases later next week, which may further influence expectations leading up to the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting. Staying above the $3,300 support level is still vital for Gold to continue its bullish configuration in the near term. Gold declined following robust US jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the Dollar and yields higher. Gold maintains weekly gains above 1.30% despite the decline, underpinned by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. •  Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 0.84% on Friday, trading around $3,322 following robust US NFP data. •  The US created 139K jobs in May, topping estimates and maintaining the unemployment level at 4.2%. • Hawkish data prompted traders to trim back Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. • Gold is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30% despite losses on each day of the current week. • Key support for XAU/USD at $3,300 holds; a break here could see $3,250 or lower. • Market attention turns to next week’s US CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment releases. •  Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing geopolitics risks and central bank gold purchases. Gold was strong this week despite being challenged by a stronger-than-forecast US Nonfarm Payrolls for May. The on-going strength in the labor market, with 139K new jobs added and unemployment remaining at 4.2%, supported the view that the US economy is still strong. This information changed market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory, prompting investors to reduce rate reduction bets in the short term. This caused the US Dollar and Treasury yields to rise, which temporarily weakened Gold prices. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nonetheless, wider macroeconomic and geopolitical forces underpin the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset. Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and persistent uncertainty among global financial markets have sustained demand for bullion. Further, central banks continue to buy Gold to diversify away from US Dollar reserves. These structural forces might still underpin the long-term value of Gold irrespective of short-term volatility in economic fundamentals or market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in an extended bull trend despite recent retreats. The price is consolidating above the support level of $3,300, which is a pivotal base for continued upward momentum. A breakout and hold above this level may set the stage for a retest of the high of late at $3,403, with additional upside to the $3,450 level and all-time high of $3,500. However, if XAU/USD breaches below $3,300, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly bearish, suggesting a possible continuation of short-term weakness before any rebound. FORECAST If Gold holds resistance above the $3,300 level, bullish interest may resume, which could propel XAU/USD back towards the recent high of $3,403. A breach above that level could attract additional buying, taking prices up to the $3,450 resistance zone. If bullish sentiment gains strength, particularly against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions or low inflation readings, Gold may even test its record high near $3,500 in the sessions ahead. On the other hand, a firm break below the $3,300 support would activate a steeper correction. In that case, Gold can go down towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235, followed by the next major support area around $3,167, which was the high of early April. Strength in the US Dollar and increasing yields can provide additional pressure on the downside, especially if coming inflation data supports a hawkish Fed outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dips on Trade Optimism but Resists Bets on Fed Cut and Geopolitical Threats

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  • May 26, 2025
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Gold prices began the week on a weaker footing, dragged by weakening safe-haven demand as US-EU trade optimism picked up following President Trump’s postponement of planned tariffs. Still, the negative seems contained as fears about the US fiscal situation, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and increasing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations continue to underpin the yellow metal. Although the recent decline, technicals and overall fundamentals indicate any drop is likely to be considered a buying opportunity, with major support at $3,325 and major resistance at $3,400–$3,500 levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will be looking closely at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for hints regarding the timing and magnitude of expected interest rate reductions, which can play a huge role in determining the price of gold. • All-important data releases such as Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday), Preliminary GDP (Thursday), and the PCE Price Index (Friday) will give more indication of the health of the US economy and influence market sentiment. • Rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and whatever fresh sanctions or reactions from major powers, will continue to be key drivers of safe-haven appetite for gold. • The $3,325–$3,324 trendline is support, with a break lower potentially challenging $3,300 and $3,283. On the upside, breaking above $3,366 could set the stage for $3,400, $3,430, and perhaps the all-time high at $3,500. Gold prices continue in the spotlight as markets await economic indicators and geopolitical events. This week, the spotlight will be on the release of the FOMC minutes and significant US data such as Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and the PCE Price Index, which have the potential to influence expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, ongoing worries about the US fiscal deficit and rising geopolitical tensions—specifically in Ukraine and the Middle East—are set to maintain safe-haven demand. From a technical perspective, gold is clinging to support around $3,325, and a move above $3,366 could set the stage for a break towards the $3,400–$3,500 zone, maintaining bullish strength. Gold prices are supported by prospects of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions despite pressure from weakening safe-haven demand. Gold prices will be watched for new directions this week by traders as they await key US data and FOMC minutes. A break above $3,366 can propel towards the $3,400–$3,500 zone. • Gold prices softened slightly as optimism in trade alleviated safe-haven demand after President Trump postponed EU tariffs. • Support is in place as Fed rate cut expectations continue to rise on weak US inflation and slowing growth. • Geopolitical uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to support gold demand. • US fiscal worries escalate as Trump’s budget bill threatens to exacerbate the budget deficit, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge. • The US Dollar falls, reaching a new monthly low, supporting gold prices by making foreign purchases less expensive. • FOMC minutes and economic data from the US such as GDP and PCE Index are major events this week that will determine the direction of gold. • Technicals indicate support at $3,325–$3,324, and resistance at $3,366; a breakout can reach the $3,400–$3,500 levels. Gold prices began the week on weaker footing as declining trade tensions between the US and the European Union lessened the urgent demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump’s announcement to postpone the imposition of a 50% tariff on the EU boosted optimism across global markets, leading investors to take on a more risk-on stance. Yet, that optimism is moderated by ongoing fears of the US fiscal situation, after the passing of a huge budget bill that has the potential to greatly expand the federal deficit in the years ahead. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks remain the support for gold’s attractiveness. The Ukraine war, combined with elevated Middle East tensions, keeps investors on edge and underpins demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates later this year—fuelled by disappointing inflation readings and a slowing growth picture—contribute to the bullish tone around the metal. With global uncertainty persisting, gold continues to be a popular hedge against economic turmoil and political shocks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still underpinned by a wider bullish pattern, and recent price action continues to look resilient above important trendline levels. In spite of a minor pullback, the metal continues to be traded in an uptrend channel, reflecting continued buying interest on dips. Momentum indicators on the hourly and daily charts continue to reflect a positive bias, which indicates that any downside is going to be contained. So long as gold remains above near-term supports, the current trend benefits buyers with scope for continuation higher if bull sentiment advances. FORECAST Prices of gold can continue higher in the next sessions with support from dovish expectations over monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. With markets already factoring in several rate reductions this year because of dampening inflation and a slow economic environment, falling interest rates may further erode the strength of the US Dollar and make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions as well as fears regarding US fiscal health are set to maintain strong investor appetite for safe-haven assets. If bullishness prevails, gold may revisit key psychological points, with room to test old highs. On the bearish side, gold may come under pressure if trade sentiment continues to improve or if near-term US macroeconomic data surprises to the upside, reducing the need for rate cuts. Any indications of resilience in inflation or better-than-forecast economic data would lead to a more hawkish stance by the Fed, favoring the US Dollar and making gold less appealing. Although overall fundamentals remain generally favorable, any short-term change could come from a fleeting shift in risk appetite or profit-taking if support levels are broken.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Staggers Despite Growing Appetite for Risk and Strengthening USD, but Bets on Fed Rate Cut Provide Comfort

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  • May 1, 2025
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Gold prices are now down for a third day in a row, having plunged to a two-week low, as a stronger US Dollar and better risk appetite—fuelled by a reduction in US-China tensions and positive trade rhetoric—tarnish the demand for the safe-haven metal. But the drawback looks limited as disappointing US macroeconomic data, such as a surprise GDP decline and lower inflation readings, drive expectations for dovish Federal Reserve rate cuts. These expectations, in turn, limit USD appreciation and give gold a cushion. Investors now look to important US economic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for more definitive guidance on the Fed’s policy course and gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Focus in the market is on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may have a major impact on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and gold’s direction. •  Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Lower GDP and softening inflation add to expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, which may cap USD strength and prop up gold prices. •  Geopolitical Updates: Any strengthening of geopolitical tensions, especially including Russia or US-China relations, might reactivate safe-haven demand for gold. •  Technical Levels under Scrutiny: A confirmed breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support level could trigger further downtrends towards $3,200 and $3,160, while attempts to recover are repelled at $3,260–$3,265 and $3,300. Multiple important factors that can influence the metal’s short-term direction are being closely observed by gold traders. All attention is now focused on forthcoming US economic data, especially the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may impact hopes surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Softer inflation and a shock GDP contraction earlier have already fueled market expectations for deep rate cuts, potentially curbing additional gains for the USD and underpinning gold. Geopolitical threats, particularly escalating tensions between Russia and events in US-China relations, also continue to be in the spotlight as possible drivers of safe-haven flows. Technically, a persistent breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support area could pave the way for further losses, while resistance around $3,265 and $3,300 could limit attempts at recovery. Gold’s short-term prospects are contingent upon pivotal US data releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls release, and shifting Fed rate cut expectations. Geopolitical uncertainty and USD strength will also be influential, with technical support at $3,229 continuing to be paramount for direction of price. • Gold prices are under pressure, near a two-week low due to firmer USD and risk-friendly sentiment. •  US-China trade optimism and easing tensions are lifting investor sentiment, lowering demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  US Dollar strength is suppressing gold, underpinned by positive sentiment and hawkish comments. •  Soft US macro data—such as a surprise contraction in GDP and weaker inflation—are fueling hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. •  Markets now expect as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through year-end, which could top USD gains and underpin gold. •  Geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe, could give a safety bid and cap gold’s downside. •  Key technical levels to monitor are support at $3,229 and resistance at $3,265–$3,300, which will determine short-term price action. Gold still wanders through a geopolitical and macroeconomic maze, where market sentiment is influenced by a mix of economic instability and changing international dynamics. The recent relaxation of US-China tensions and upbeat trade talks have heightened investor optimism, limiting the attractiveness of conventional safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, improved US Dollar performance with supportive comments about international trade agreements has dampened demand for gold. This notwithstanding, gold is being underpinned by increasing fear about the US economy’s health, as demonstrated by a surprising GDP contraction and decelerating private sector hiring. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Inflationary pressure also seems to be abating, with the most recent information indicating a deceleration in both headline and core inflation. These events have reinforced market expectations of further aggressive interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve over the next few months. As market players adjust strategies to meet new economic data and central bank cues, gold still has some underlying support. At the same time, lingering geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to Russia and Eastern Europe, continue to introduce uncertainty that can maintain interest in the precious metal as a long-term hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently fell below the crucial support range of $3,265–$3,260, prompting a cascade of selling pressure and driving prices to a two-week low of $3,221. Although momentum indicators have begun to lose bullish momentum, a clear break below the next significant support at $3,229–$3,228 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would affirm a bearish continuation towards the $3,200 level and potentially the $3,160 zone. On the upside, any recovery attempts may face resistance near the $3,260–$3,265 zone, followed by stronger barriers around the $3,300 mark and the $3,348–$3,350 supply region, where renewed selling interest could emerge. FORECAST If upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls report, reinforces expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold could find renewed support and begin to recover. A softer labor market or softer inflation numbers can heighten pressure on the Fed to cut policy, softening the US Dollar and making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Gold prices in such a case can recover towards the $3,300 mark and even retest higher resistance levels if risk-off sentiment returns owing to geopolitical tensions or global economic issues. On the other hand, in case the US economic data surprise positively—indicating resilience in the labor market or more sticky inflation—market expectations of Fed rate cuts diminish, a stronger USD results, and gold comes under additional downward pressure. Continued absence of safe-haven demand on account of bettering risk sentiment, particularly following positive global trade updates, could also be responsible for further losses. If gold falls below the $3,229 support level decisively, it may lead to a deeper correction towards $3,200 and even the $3,160 region in

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Below $2,910 on Increasing US Yields and Firm Job Growth

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  • March 8, 2025
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Gold prices declined below $2,910 as US Treasury yields bounced back after the release of the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, which revealed firm job growth though missing estimates. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, reaffirmed that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, maintaining monetary policy intact for the time being. Although inflation is still a worry, Powell made it clear that the journey to 2% inflation will be rough. Central banks such as China’s PBoC and Poland’s NBP also continue to build up their gold reserves, giving some support to the metal. But increasing US real yields and declining geopolitical tensions capped gold’s upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • A US Treasury yield rebound can continue to put pressure on gold prices, particularly with increasing real yields affecting gold’s attractiveness. • The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates and Powell’s inflation remarks indicate that monetary policy will be tight, capping gold’s potential. • Softening geopolitical tensions, especially in Ukraine and Russia negotiations, may dampen gold’s safe-haven demand and pressure prices. • Continuous gold buying by large central banks such as China and Poland might offer price-supporting underlying fundamentals, counteracting general market pressure. Prices in gold are being pressured downwards by US Treasury yields recovering and real yields increasing, which has been historically inversely affecting gold’s attractiveness. The Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizing that achieving 2% inflation will be a “bumpy” process, suggesting that interest rates will stay steady for the time being. Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, have also reduced the safe-haven demand for gold. But central banks, such as China’s PBoC and Poland’s NBP, keep on taking gold, which should lend some underlying support to the precious metal in spite of overall market difficulties. Gold prices are in pressure because US Treasury yields move higher and the Fed indicates a stable direction for interest rates. Although softening geopolitical tensions lower safe-haven demand, central bank buying, especially by China and Poland, lends some support to gold prices. • Gold drops below $2,910 as US Treasury yields recover, exerting downward pressure on the metal. • The February Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates consistent job growth, with 151K jobs created, though missing expectations. • Federal Reserve officials, including Jerome Powell, indicate no hurry to reduce rates, stressing the necessity of a cautious approach to inflation. • Powell reaffirms that the path to 2% inflation will be “bumpy,” maintaining monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future. • Ukraine-Russia progress and US pressure on Hamas lower gold’s safe-haven demand, capping gains for the metal. • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and Poland’s National Bank (NBP) have added gold reserves, with Poland purchasing the most since 2019. • US real yields, especially on 10-year TIPS, rise, presenting a headwind to gold prices by lowering its relative attractiveness. Gold prices are under pressure following increases in US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve holding firm on interest rates. The latest US jobs report evidenced stable growth within the labor market with more joining the workforce while numbers fell short of expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the central bank isn’t in any hurry to cut rates, given that the route to 2% inflation is uncertain and tough. This risk-averse policy stance has caused a more balanced economic outlook, taking away some of the gold’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, relaxing geopolitical tensions, especially between Russia and Ukraine, have reduced the need for gold as a safe haven from world uncertainties. Improvement in ceasefire negotiations, coupled with a reduction in tensions in the Middle East, has also dampened gold’s presence in investors’ portfolios. In the meantime, central banks such as China’s People’s Bank of China and Poland’s National Bank are still buying gold, offering some sustained support to the metal. These central bank interventions, together with a strengthening global economic outlook, could assist in stabilizing gold prices in the face of wider market pressures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are met with resistance at the $2,930 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating that there is still room for additional upside. The metal has, however, been unable to climb above this mark, signifying a period of consolidation. A fall below the $2,900 level might indicate further downside risk, with the next significant support levels being the February 28 low of $2,832 and the $2,800 level. On the other hand, a break above $2,930 could pave the way for a possible rally towards $2,950 and even $3,000, if momentum keeps accelerating. The market is still in a tight consolidation, with the price action of gold very closely related to movements in US Treasury yields and general market sentiment. FORECAST If gold can break above the current levels of resistance, notably the $2,930 level, prices could have the potential to rise further. A sustained rally could have gold pushing through the $2,950 level, with a possibility of reaching the all-time high of $2,954. If momentum keeps gaining and overall market conditions are supportive, like further central bank gold buying and geopolitical tensions, the $3,000 mark could come into view. Also, if inflation remains in play or the Fed is signaling to postpone rate cuts, gold might attract even more strength as a hedge against economic uncertainty. On the negative side, if gold is unable to hold above the $2,900 level, further selling could be witnessed. A breakdown below this level would likely lead to a move towards the February 28 low of $2,832, followed by a possible test of the $2,800 support. Increasing real yields and a firmer US dollar can continue to depress gold, as it becomes less appealing relative to other assets. If the US economy continues to demonstrate strength, with the Fed still being aggressive on rates, gold may see further pressure, potentially pulling prices down in the near term.

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