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Gold Price Jumps Towards $3,340 As Global Trade Tensions Rise and Safe-Haven Demand Increases

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  • July 11, 2025
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The prices of gold (XAU/USD) continued their three-day winning streak, rising to almost $3,340 levels due to renewed global trade tensions, which triggered safe-haven demand. The rise comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of significant 35% tariffs against Canada and the potential to add 15–20% duties on other countries, including the EU, has shaken world risk sentiment. Market players are thus keeping a keen eye on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June, which may further drive the direction of gold prices, particularly considering that the metal has a good track record during inflationary times. KEY LOOKOUTS • President Trump’s action to impose a 35% tariff on Canada and potential additional tariffs on the EU may heighten global trade tensions, fueling safe-haven gold demand. • The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for June will be a key gold catalyst, as elevated inflation usually buoys precious metal prices. • Gold is approaching a critical resistance around $3,500; a convincing breakout above here would send prices into new realms, with subsequent targets at $3,550 and $3,600. • On the bearish side, monitor support at $3,245; a close below here might send prices lower to $3,200 and $3,121. Gold prices have risen to near $3,340 as investors buy safe-haven assets in response to rising global trade tensions. U.S. President Trump’s 35% tariffs declaration against Canada and the potential for further duties against the European Union have unsettled market sentiment, decreasing risk appetite for riskier assets. The geopolitical risk has made gold more attractive, particularly as investors watch for influential U.S. inflation data for June. As inflation worries still persist, the coming CPI report can decisively influence gold’s movement, perhaps solidifying its upward momentum if price pressures continue. Gold prices move towards $3,340 as new U.S. tariff threats drive safe-haven demand. The markets now focus on the next U.S. CPI data, which might further drive gold’s momentum. •  Gold continues its streak, increasing for the third straight day and getting close to $3,340. •  U.S. President Trump institutes 35% tariffs on Canada, triggering global trade tensions. •  More EU tariffs are anticipated, further adding to market uncertainty. •  Safe-haven demand surges as investors flee riskier assets. • Gold nears critical technical levels, with resistance at $3,500 and support at $3,245. • June U.S. CPI data is a prime impending trigger that will determine gold’s next move. •  RSI reflects sideways movement, while a breakout or breakdown may determine short-term direction. Gold prices have gained solid traction as investors respond to escalating global trade tensions fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s most recent tariff actions. The imposition of 35% tariffs on imports from Canada, as well as threats of further tariffs on the European Union, has caused broad-based market anxiety. Consequently, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold has increased sharply, reflecting investor nervousness amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This ramp-up in gold demand is also fuelled by hopes for U.S. inflation, with markets looking intensely at the imminent publication of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics. During periods of high inflation or economic turmoil, gold is historically considered a sure thing for safekeeping. The increasing fears surrounding disrupted global trade and possible domestic cost pressures are turning gold into a desirable option for investors looking for stability in a volatile world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is hovering close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of about $3,330, indicating possible stabilization following recent advances. That said, it is still below the top line of an Ascending Triangle pattern, with the main resistance at about the $3,500 level. A decisive move above this level would set the stage for new highs, but inability to hold above support around $3,245 could initiate a pullback to $3,200 or $3,121. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, trading between 40 and 60, and this indicates the absence of strong short-term directional momentum. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions keep increasing and inflation persists, gold may breach the $3,500 psychological level. A breakout above this level, once confirmed, can trigger a healthy bullish move, possibly setting its sights on $3,550 and even $3,600 in the near future. Sustained demand for safe havens, combined with dovish central bank signals, would add strength to this upward move. Conversely, should trade tensions subside or future U.S. CPI figures indicate tempering inflation, gold can reverse recent gains. A fall below the important support level of $3,245 might unleash further losses towards $3,200 and $3,121. Even a more robust U.S. dollar or more hawkish Fed statements might exert downward pressure on gold prices.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthened as Chronic Inflation Threats and Global Tariff Disputes Persist

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  • July 9, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rise against the US Dollar (USD), fueled by chronic inflation threats highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and escalating global trade tensions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the ongoing influence of high labor costs and poor productivity on inflation, which is a signal of possible rate-cut delays. In the meantime, global sentiment is still risk-averse in the face of escalating US tariffs by President Trump, which involve steep tariffs on copper, drugs, and products of several countries. The AUD remains strong despite a stable US Dollar, riding on its strong trade relations with China and hope for China’s reforms. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is currently on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after it left rates unchanged at 3.85% despite speculation of a reduction. Risks to inflation may delay the easing. • The market is paying close attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes in anticipation of direction on the US Fed’s interest rate path and its implication for movement of USD. • US President Trump’s suggested 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, as well as sweeping levies against several nations, are contributing to worldwide trade tensions and affecting risk sentiment. • China’s PPI and CPI readings and widening offshore access to Chinese bond markets could have a major impact on AUD trends given Australia’s penetration of China economically. Australian Dollar is holding strong against the US Dollar, underpinned by ongoing inflation fears and guarded optimism over China’s economy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments on ongoing inflation on the back of higher labor costs and poor productivity have pushed back expectations of a near-future rate cut, despite market expectations of easing in August. While, in the meantime, growing trade tensions sparked by US President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy have unsettled global markets, AUD still stands to gain from its intimate trade correlation with China, particularly with China’s determination to open up its capital markets as well as rev up economic growth. Australian Dollar remains strong in the face of ongoing inflation risks highlighted by the RBA and rising global trade tensions. High fundamentals with China and hopes for economic reforms keep AUD fundamentals strong. Markets now look to FOMC Minutes for further guidance. • AUD/USD rallies for a second consecutive session, buoyed by Australian inflation concerns. •  RBA maintains interest rates at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a 25 bps reduction, due to persisting inflation risks. •  Governor Michele Bullock says that high labor costs and poor productivity may sustain inflation at elevated levels. •  China’s CPI increases by 0.1% YoY, some good news for Australia’s export-oriented economy. •  Trump imposes new tariffs, including a 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, escalating global trade tensions. • US Dollar holds firm, with attention turning to the next FOMC Minutes for guidance on policy. • Technicals are bullish, with AUD/USD eyeing resistance around 0.6535 and maybe even 0.6590. The Australian Dollar is strengthening after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hints at ongoing inflation threats through high unit labor costs and reducing productivity. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed that the full effects of past interest rate reductions are yet to be realized, and thereby advised caution before making any further monetary policy moves. Though market players and key Australian banks had been expecting a rate cut, the central bank’s resolve to remain tight shows it is serious about fighting inflation. This move mirrors the RBA’s focus on long-term price stability and its resolve to watch more data before policy changes. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In international news, increased trade tensions initiated by US President Donald Trump’s confrontational tariff policy are driving economic uncertainty. New taxes on a broad array of imports—ranging from copper and pharmaceuticals to imports from several countries—are likely to remake world supply chains and affect trade flows. Under these circumstances, Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China is even more important, particularly as China introduces reforms to increase investment access and compensate for export interruption. These economic and geopolitical changes are molding currency markets, with the Australian Dollar remaining robust in the midst of the global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a bullish inclination while trading around the 0.6530 level and holding tight in an upward sloping channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the midpoint 50, signaling fair bullish momentum. Though, the pair is now testing resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535. A clean break above this point could open the door towards the recent peak of 0.6590 and even beyond to higher levels around the top of the channel at 0.6680. Support on the downside is around 0.6510, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6475. FORECAST If the Australian Dollar can take out and hold above the short-term resistance level at 0.6535 (nine-day EMA), it would gain more bullish momentum. A successful breach above this level may take the AUD/USD pair towards the recent high of 0.6590, and potentially challenge the upper edge of the rising channel around 0.6680. Positive news from China’s economic sector or additional hawkish indications from the RBA would further push the Aussie Dollar higher. Conversely, a failure to clear 0.6535 could see a short-term pullback. The first support is at the lower border of the ascending channel at 0.6510, then the 50-day EMA at 0.6475. A firm break below these could turn sentiment bearish, bringing the pair towards the two-month low of 0.6372. Increased tensions in global trade or a slightly firmer-than-expected US Dollar due to the FOMC Minutes could hasten this decline.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Retreats In the Face of US Dollar Recovery and Changing Global Economic Patterns

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  • May 27, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) declined below the 0.6500 level on Tuesday after retreating from a six-month peak, while the US Dollar (USD) recovered losses in recent days as Treasury yields declined for the third day running. Improved Chinese industrial profit growth and weakening US-EU trade tensions are giving conflicting signals for the AUD/USD, but concerns about US fiscal deficits and debt levels remain to underpin the Greenback. The recent Australian Reserve Bank rate cut and outlook for additional monetary accommodation may cap AUD’s gains, but technical indicators are favoring optimistic caution for a possible rebound if major resistance levels can be broken. Traders continue to be alert to future US economic news and geopolitical events that affect trade relations, which will tend to have the greatest influence on currency movements in the near future. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for future releases such as Durable Goods Orders, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and Consumer Confidence, which may affect the strength of the USD. • Additional Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts may cap AUD advances and burden the currency’s medium-term prospects. • Evolving trade relations—especially the US-China truce and postponed EU tariff deadlines—could impact global risk sentiment and support the AUD. • Monitor resistance at 0.6537 and support at the nine-day EMA (0.6456). A breakout above resistance could target 0.6687, while a drop below support may trigger deeper declines. Traders should closely monitor several key factors influencing the AUD/USD pair in the near term. Future US economic releases, such as Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data, may influence the recovery path of the US Dollar. In the meantime, chances for additional Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts may cap the Australian Dollar’s upside potential. Developments in global trade—i.e., the US-China ceasefire and postponed US-EU tariff announcement—may influence risk perception and indirectly help prop up the AUD given the robust trade linkages between Australia and China. Moreover, technical levels are still important, and the pair should break above 0.6537 in order to continue its bullish trend, while a fall below the nine-day EMA at 0.6456 could open further declines. Traders need to monitor major US economic indicators and additional Reserve Bank of Australia rate decisions that can influence AUD/USD action. Global trade tensions and China’s economic performance continue to be key drivers given Australia’s high trade dependencies. Technically, breaking above 0.6537 would confirm additional advances, with support around 0.6456. • The Australian dollar fell from a six-month high of 0.6537, below the psychological 0.6500 barrier. • The USD recovered as Treasury yields fell for the third consecutive day, giving support to the Greenback. • April reported a 3% YoY increase in China’s industrial profits, which indicated economic strength and aided AUD sentiment. • The Reserve Bank of Australia just cut rates by 25 bps and signaled additional easing if the economic outlook deteriorates. • President Trump pushed out the EU tariff deadline, which improved risk sentiment and provided indirect support for the AUD. • Increasing deficit forecasts and Moody’s credit rating reduction are exerting long-term pressure on the USD. • Resistance is at 0.6537 and the support is at the 9-day EMA (0.6456); a break either way may dictate the next direction. The Australian Dollar continues to be under pressure due to the overall global economic changes and continued policy updates. In spite of a recent lift from China’s better industrial profits—up 3% year-on-year in April—the AUD has failed to continue being positive. China’s economic performance is of great influence over the Australian Dollar because of their strong trade relationship, especially in commodity and manufacturing industries. Also, relaxing US-European Union trade tensions, such as President Trump postponing new tariffs, have favored general market sentiment, indirectly helping risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, US economy concerns continue to capture market attention. The US Dollar has provided signs of strength in the face of increasing fiscal concerns, such as a projected $3.8 billion deficit increase from proposed legislation and Moody’s reduction of the US credit rating. Indications from Federal Reserve officials indicate doubt regarding future policy actions, especially with regard to increasing tariffs and fiscal uncertainty. As markets absorb these updates, traders are also monitoring Australia-China relations and any geopolitical changes that may influence trade dynamics in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair holds a mildly bullish inclination as it trades close to the 0.6500 mark, buoyed by its stand above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the neutral 50 level, showing continued buying interest. A persistent break above the latest high of 0.6537 would strengthen the momentum to the upside and leave the way open for a test of higher levels of resistance. On the other hand, if the pair drops below the nine-day EMA at 0.6456, it may indicate diminishing bullish strength and leave the pair vulnerable to more aggressive correction. Traders should watch these levels for near-term guidance. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may regain its strength against the US Dollar if there is further improvement in global risk appetite, particularly with declining trade tensions between the US and EU and China’s steady industrial growth. Favorable developments in China’s economy, especially those in high-tech and equipment industries, may further push the AUD higher owing to Australia’s robust trade relationships. Also, if US economic statistics fail to meet expectations or Federal Reserve officials start to signal rate cuts in the coming weeks, the Greenback may weaken, creating space for the AUD/USD pair to advance. Another bout of buying above 0.6537 might test further gains towards the 0.6600–0.6687 levels in the near term. On the downside, the Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to further losses if the Reserve Bank of Australia proceeds with additional rate cuts or if Australia-China relations worsen, especially amid rising diplomatic tensions like the Darwin Port lease issue. Persistent concerns over the US fiscal deficit and high bond yields may continue to offer support to the USD. A heavy fall

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