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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stands Firm with Trade Uncertainty and Divided Fed Cues

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  • July 10, 2025
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Gold prices maintain a firm bias for the second day running on the back of safe-haven demand due to rising trade tensions and a weakened US Dollar. Even as risk aversion is heightened by uncertainty about President Trump’s recent tariff policies, divided cues from the Federal Reserve on further rate cuts leave investors hesitant. The release of the FOMC minutes showed limited immediate support for a rate cut, capping gold’s upside despite falling US bond yields. As markets await US jobless claims data and further comments from Fed officials, gold remains range-bound near the $3,320 mark, with key resistance and support levels in focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key short-term trigger that could influence Fed rate cut expectations and Gold’s direction. • Any dovish or hawkish language would affect market sentiment surrounding interest rates and the USD. • Ongoing USD weakness and falling Treasury yields might be bullish for gold prices. • Reactions to Trump’s fresh tariffs and any retaliation will be a primary driver of safe-haven flows. Gold prices are holding up near $3,320 as investors grapple with a blend of global trade tensions and ambiguous Fed policy indications. President Trump’s most recent tariff announcements, such as a 50% tariff on copper imports, have further fueled market anxiety, pushing safe-haven flows into gold. The Fed’s meeting minutes meanwhile showed the policymakers were divided in their stance on rate cuts this month, although most policymakers continue to foresee easing later this year. This volatility, complemented by declining US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar, still provides underlying support to the non-yielding metal despite upside being capped by better risk sentiment in the equities. Gold prices are supported by increasing trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar, trading firmly around $3,320. Yet, dovish Fed signals and firmer equities are capping further gains. US jobless claims and Fed commentary are now awaited for direction. • Gold trades at $3,320 with a small intraday gain for the second consecutive day. • Trade tensions rise following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and warning of no exemptions or extensions. • Mixed opinions about rate cuts in FOMC minutes, with minimal near-term support but anticipation of easing towards year-end. • US Dollar again weakens for the second straight day, supporting Gold’s safe-haven status. • US bond yields fall, following the strong 10-year Treasury auction, underpinning non-yielding assets such as Gold. • Technical resistance at $3,335 and $3,360; breaking through could take Gold up to the $3,400 level. •  Key data ahead includes US Weekly Jobless Claims and Fed speeches, which could drive short-term market direction. Gold continues under the spotlight as international financial markets respond to heightened trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The latest action from US President Donald Trump to introduce new tariffs on various trading partners, including a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, has created uncertainty among investors. This geopolitical tension has rekindled demand for classic safe-haven assets such as gold, with market players seeking stability in the face of growing policy uncertainty and the possibility of retaliation from impacted countries. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes reflect intramural discord, as some policymakers are not keen to reduce interest rates in the near future. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement that rate reductions might be necessary later in the year if inflation remains benign and trade tensions suppress economic growth. These themes, together with a deteriorating US Dollar and risk-averse sentiment, continue to provide a bullish environment for gold in the larger market context. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains at the $3,320 level with a marginal bullish bias. Initial resistance is at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3,335, followed by a stronger zone of supply between $3,358 and $3,360. A forceful breakout above this area might initiate more bullish pressure, perhaps driving prices towards the $3,400 psychological mark. To the downside, a break below the support at $3,300 might reveal the $3,283–3,282 area, with additional losses risking a descent towards the monthly low at $3,248–3,247. Generally, traders need to look out for a definitive breakout or breakdown from these decisive technical levels for affirmation of the next move. FORECAST If geopolitical tension continues to spike and the US Dollar stays pressured, gold prices may witness fresh buying interest. A breakout above the $3,335 resistance level would set the stage for a move towards the $3,358–3,360 supply zone. Sizing through this barrier may initiate a short-covering rally, which has the potential to drive prices towards the $3,400 psychological level in the near future, provided that forward US economic data or Fed rhetoric aids the rate-cutting case. On the other hand, if the US is not able to negotiate trade deals by the August 1 tariff deadline, worldwide trade tensions could rise aggressively, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar. Also, if near-term UK economic releases are disappointing or worry over rising national debt and geopolitical tensions picks up pace, the GBP could be underpinned. A breakdown below the 1.3500 psychological support level may result in additional declines towards the next major point at 1.3400.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Holds Above $3,300 Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty

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  • July 8, 2025
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Gold prices remain resilient above the $3,300 level amid a complex mix of global economic and political factors. While diminishing hopes for a July Fed rate cut and Trump’s renewed tariff threats exert downward pressure, ongoing concerns over US fiscal stability and rising global risk aversion continue to support safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. US Dollar volatility contributes to the uncertainty, with gold prices stuck in a trading range until the more definitive indications from the FOMC meeting minutes ahead. There were no major economic data releases and market sentiment is being shaped predominantly by geopolitical events and US monetary policy expectations. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The issuance of tariff deadline extensions and aggressive threats against BRICS-aligned countries are intensifying concerns of international trade disruption, weighing on market sentiment. • Increasing expectations of sustained high interest rates based on expected inflation from tariffs are dampening gold’s potential upside. • As the USD reached a two-week high, fiscal worries and risk aversion are limiting further advances, providing minimal support for gold prices. • Resistance at $3,347–$3,360 and support at $3,295–$3,270 are key levels to watch for traders as gold looks for direction in a muddled fundamental environment. Gold prices are under modest pressure but stay firm above the $3,300 level as markets absorb mixed signals on the global and domestic fronts. The fading prospects of a July Fed rate cut due to inflation fears fueled by Trump’s brash tariff policy is limiting the non-yielding metal’s upside momentum. Yet safe-haven demand remains as a result of mounting geopolitical tensions, doubt over US fiscal health, and widespread risk aversion across global equity markets. Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar acts to offset gold’s losses, with market players now looking to the coming FOMC meeting minutes for clearer direction on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Gold price lingers near $3,300 as markets balance ebbing Fed rate-cut hopes against increasing global risk aversion. Tariff threats by Trump and a tempered US Dollar cap losses, holding gold firm in advance of key FOMC minutes. •  Gold holds above $3,300 despite small intraday declines, buoyed by safe-haven demand. •  Ebbing hopes for a July Fed rate cut weigh on the non-yielding metal due to inflation worries. •  Trump’s prolonged tariff threats against BRICS-aligned countries increase global economic insecurity. •  The US Dollar hit a two-week peak but finds it difficult to rise further on fiscal and trade-related concerns. •  Insufficient aggressive bearish bets on gold indicate investors remain cautious amid conflicting market cues. •  Technical resistance around $3,347–$3,360 caps upside, whereas support at $3,295–$3,270 remains pivotal. • Market attention turns to FOMC minutes for more precise guidance on the Fed’s next rate trajectory and USD direction. Gold prices are stable above the $3,300 level as investors remain conservative in light of increasing global uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s return to threats to impose higher tariffs—particularly on nations aligning with BRICS—has renewed apprehension regarding global trade disruptions and inflation. This change in trade policy has not just shaken market sentiment but also made it more difficult for the Federal Reserve’s strategy, as policymakers might now be required to hold higher interest rates for a longer period than expected to suppress inflationary pressures. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, the US Dollar has also indicated strength but is held back by perceptions related to the fiscal health of the country and the general impact on the economy of tariff hikes. The dearth of specific economic data during the early part of the week has kept markets focused on wider geopolitical events and future policy guidance from the Federal Reserve. Here, gold is still taking advantage of its safe-haven demand, as global equities are experiencing distress and investor sentiment remaining weak. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is running into resistance at the $3,347-$3,348 level, which is around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A continued advance beyond this level may trigger short-covering and send prices to the $3,360 supply zone, with a break-out opening up the psychological $3,400 mark. To the downside, near-term support is in the $3,300–$3,295 area, which has thus far managed to cap further declines. A firm fall through this level may fan selling pressure, leading the metal to the next major support at $3,270, and even lower down to June’s low around $3,247. FORECAST If gold can clear the near-term resistance at $3,348 and hold on for more than the $3,360 supply zone, it may signal a bullish breakout. This could draw in new buying interest, creating a short-term rally toward the $3,400 psychological level. Ongoing global risk aversion, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or any dovish comments from the upcoming FOMC minutes could further fuel the upside path for gold. On the other hand, if gold is unable to sustain the $3,300–$3,295 support level, it can expect to come under more selling pressure. A firm break below the range can pave the way to the $3,270 support level, and more losses can bring the price down to the June swing low of approximately $3,247. A stronger US Dollar, hardline Fed perspective, or decline in global tensions can serve as triggers for this bearish move.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Float below $3,300 as Traders Look to US PCE Data with Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty Looming

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  • May 30, 2025
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Gold prices are kept in check below the $3,300 level as tame U.S. Dollar firmness puts pressure to the downside before the highly anticipated release of the U.S. PCE Price Index. Despite the dip, downside movement appears limited amid renewed trade tensions, ongoing geopolitical risks, and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A reinstated tariff ruling and uncertainty surrounding global conflict zones have kept investor sentiment cautious, lending support to the safe-haven metal. Though technical indicators imply further downside potential, the majority of traders are in waiting mode for new impetus from U.S. inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone is watching for the next U.S. inflation data release, which has the potential to have a meaningful impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations and near-term direction for the USD and gold. • Russia-Ukraine conflict developments and Middle East ceasefire negotiations still underpin safe-haven demand for gold, offering a potential defense against further losses. • Re-imposition of Trump’s tariffs and rumors of additional trade actions could inject pressure into the markets and indirectly support gold’s appeal in risk-off conditions. • Unclear signals from Fed officials regarding the timing and probability of interest rate reductions leave markets in suspense, rendering short-term gold direction dependent on upcoming data and comments. Investors should pay close attention to the publication of the U.S. PCE Price Index since it has the potential to dramatically alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and subsequently affect gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as the lack of progress in Middle East ceasefire talks and doubts over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, continue to provide support to gold’s safe-haven allure. Furthermore, the revival of trade policy uncertainty since the reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs has added additional market volatility, which has made gold a popular hedge. In contrast, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials underscore the significance of future economic releases in informing monetary policy, leaving traders nervous and price dynamics in gold very responsive to further developments. Gold traders are monitoring the next U.S. PCE Price Index closely for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty remain in favor of gold’s safe-haven status, limiting downside even with nascent USD firmness. •  Gold stays under $3,300 due to mild U.S. Dollar strength suppressing demand. •  Markets look to the U.S. PCE Price Index, which may frame rate-cut expectations at the Fed. •  Reinstalled Trump-style tariffs introduce trade uncertainty that favors safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe keep supporting gold’s demand. •  Fed officials are still divided, sending conflicting signals on upcoming rate action. •  Technical indicators indicate bearish momentum, and there could be downside towards $3,245–$3,200. •  Resistance is at $3,325–$3,350 and the breach above might unleash fresh buying interest. Gold prices continue to weaken as market participants wait for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be released, a core inflation measure that may have implications for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The information is likely to give more guidance on whether the Fed will continue with rate cuts in the second half of the year, a consideration that has made market players conservative. Although the U.S. Dollar has been mildly firmer, prospects of a more dovish Fed position in the months ahead still underpin interest in gold as a non-yielding asset generally. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides economic statistics, growing geopolitical tensions and reviving trade policy anxieties are keeping gold in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset. The latest imposition of tariffs by a U.S. federal appeals court, along with concurrent wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have contributed to worldwide uncertainty. These together with dovish comments by several Federal Reserve officials have been adding to a watch-and-wait mood in the market that has been upholding gold as a hedge against general macroeconomic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold comes up against near-term resistance in the $3,325–$3,326 area, which has already failed to breach on higher attempts. The inability to break above the $3,300 level indicates no strong bullish strength, and short-term indicators are starting to reflect renewed selling pressure. If the price continues to have trouble below important resistance levels, a downward move to the next support zones could be expected. Yet any such sustained break above the $3,325 ceiling may initiate fresh buying interest and potentially leave the way open for a retest of upper levels. FORECAST If the future U.S. PCE figures indicate slowing inflation, this may further support Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, weakening the U.S. Dollar and driving gold prices higher. In that case, gold could see fresh buying interest, with room to test levels higher than the $3,300 mark. A continued break past the $3,325–$3,350 resistance level could prompt short-covering and propel prices towards the $3,400 area, buoyed by safe-haven demand as geopolitical and trade tensions continue to hold sway. Conversely, in the event of PCE data surprise to the upside signifying sticky inflation, it might temper hopes of near-future Fed rate cuts and enhance the U.S. Dollar, putting fresh downward pressure on gold. In such a scenario, prices might fall further, with scope to test support levels at $3,280 and potentially carry losses up to the $3,245–$3,200 region. Further dollar strength or resolve on trade and geopolitical fronts would also diminish the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to the bearish risk.

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