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Gold Pulls Back from All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Rate Verdict: Will Powell Trigger the Next Rally?

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  • September 17, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back from all-time highs around $3,703 as market participants wait with bated breath for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, set to offer a 25 basis point reduction. As of writing, the metal trades at about $3,675, pushed lower by a minor US Dollar rebound but underpinned by muted Treasury yields and robust safe-haven buying. Although profit-taking has pulled recent advances, the overall bullish trend is intact, with the Fed’s policy expectation and Powell’s comment guiding whether Gold resumes its advance towards fresh highs or gets into a sharper correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone expects a 25 bps cut, but even suggestions of more or quicker easing could have a big influence on Gold’s direction. • The tone of Fed Chair regarding inflation, labor market conditions, and future policy direction will be essential for determining market sentiment. • Levels of immediate support are $3,650–$3,645, and resistance levels are $3,675–$3,700, with $3,703 as the primary breakout level. • Geopolitical uncertainties and economic uncertainty remain the drivers of Gold’s bullish thesis in spite of interim corrections. Prices of Gold are settling back from their new all-time highs at around $3,703, with market players waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for the next directional signal. The precious metal is at around $3,675, down fractionally on the day as investors take profits and the US Dollar demonstrates mild firmness. Market expectations are strongly biased towards a 25 basis point rate reduction, but focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s direction and the revised economic projections for hints on the speed of future easing. Even as the recent pullback from Gold exists, its broader bullish trend continues to be underpinned by safe-haven demand, tame Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Gold drops from record highs of about $3,703 as traders wait for the Fed’s rate move, with markets penciled in for a 25 bps cut. XAU/USD is trading at $3,675, with Powell’s direction set to guide the next major move in prices. The pullback notwithstanding, safe-haven demand still remains bullish for the overall outlook. • Gold pulls back from record highs of about $3,703 as traders hold on for the Fed’s policy move. • XAU/USD is trading at about $3,675, down close to 0.35% on the day. • The markets are forecasting a 25 bps Fed rate cut, bringing the funds rate down to 4.00%-4.25%. • Powell’s press conference and new economic projections will be driving market sentiment. • Support in the immediate vicinity is $3,650–$3,645 and resistance of $3,675–$3,700. • Safe-haven buying, muted yields, and geopolitical tensions support Gold’s overall uptrend. • A dovish Fed may initiate new highs, while caution would risk a more significant correction. Gold is giving a breather to its record-breaking rally, as investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The precious metal’s price has been boosted by hopes of looser US monetary policy, ongoing global uncertainties, and healthy safe-haven demand. Investors are keeping a close eye on how the Fed will weigh slowing job growth and sticky inflation since its policy framework will be instrumental in determining the market direction for the remainder of the year. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from monetary policy, Gold is underpinned by broader macroeconomic and political variables. The continued geopolitical tensions, worry about world growth, and increased uncertainty of US politics continue to uphold its status as a safe-haven asset. With major banks expecting several rate cuts through the end of the year, the overall background still supports Gold, and thus the Fed’s guidance is a key event for market players in focus. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is steadying around $3,675 after pulling back from the all-time high of $3,703. Initial support is found at $3,650–$3,645, corresponding to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while the resistance is at $3,675–$3,700. A move below support would risk exposing the $3,620 area, while a rebound might force a retest of the all-time high, with possible extension to $3,750. The RSI at 51 indicates neutral momentum after cooling from overbought, while the MACD reflects declining bullish strength, indicating the Fed’s move is likely to be the catalyst for the next big move. FORECAST If the Fed communicates a dovish tone with the broadly anticipated 25 bps rate cut, Gold may get back into gear and test the record high of $3,703. A firm breakdown above this level may set the path towards $3,750 and beyond, backed by safe-haven demand, muted yields, and forecasts of additional policy accommodation. Increased geopolitical risk or indications that the US economy is weakening can further drive buying interest. Conversely, if Powell’s advice is conservative or reduces expectations on the extent of future cuts, Gold could attract selling pressure again. Breaking below the $3,650 support area could reveal lower levels around $3,620 and the psychological $3,600 level. A sharper US Dollar recovery or a reduction in geopolitical tensions could also deter bullion, bringing in a longer-term corrective phase before any new rally attempt.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rebounds Ahead of Trump-Zelensky Meeting as Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost Safe-Haven Demand

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  • August 18, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded sharply from a two-week low on Monday, gaining support from retreating US Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The safe-haven metal also attracted buying interest as US President Donald Trump was meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some of the most important European leaders to talk of a possible peace deal with Russia. But a weak appreciation in the US Dollar and a general risk-on mood in the global markets might cap the upside momentum, with traders keeping a close eye on future FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for new policy signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is more and more expecting a rate reduction in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating at least two reductions by the end of the year. • Bilateral negotiations and then European discussions of a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement are watched by investors for geopolitical signals. • Falling Treasury yields underpin gold, but a modest USD recovery could limit gains. • Traders look to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for transparency on the Fed’s short-term policy direction. Gold prices made a sharp rebound from a two-week trough on Monday, underpinned by declining US Treasury yields and increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in September. The yellow metal’s safe-haven demand was additionally fueled by expectations of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders to talk about a possible peace agreement with Russia. But a modest recovery for the US Dollar and a broadly positive risk appetite in world markets may cap additional gains for gold, with traders waiting for the next FOMC Minutes and speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium for more definitive policy cues. Gold recovered from a two-week low as US bond yields ease and bets on Fed rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal. Geopolitical events, such as Trump-Zelensky discussions, and future Fed signals will be main motivators for its next direction. • Gold (XAU/USD) recovered more than $30 from a two-week low on Monday. • Falling US Treasury yields and September bets on Fed rate cuts boosted the metal. • CME FedWatch Tool indicates two or more cuts by end-year probability. • Trump-Zelensky summit and European leaders’ negotiations on a peace agreement provided geopolitical boost. • Modest US Dollar strength and risk-on market tone put a lid on additional advance. • Traders look for policy guidance from FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. • Technicals indicate resistance around $3,355-$3,374 and support around $3,324-$3,323. Gold picked up steam at the beginning of the week, tapping strength from declining US Treasury bond yields and increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve will reopen the rate-cutting taps in September. The change in monetary policy expectations has rekindled appetite for the non-yielding precious metal, which is appealing to investors looking for stability. In addition, the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, followed by further discussions with European leaders on a possible Russia-Ukraine peace accord, has boosted safe-haven demand for gold in the face of heightened geopolitical interest. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, recent US economic data have shaped market sentiment. Although retail sales were growing steadily, inflation expectations crept up, indicating persisting price pressures. Consumer confidence, though, softened appreciably, reflecting caution in households regarding the economic environment. It is against this that investors are keenly observing the publication of FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for direction on the speed of monetary loosening that will determine gold’s near-term demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has strongly bounced back from the $3,324–3,323 support level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July rally. The above 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart recovery indicates fresh bullish strength, with the oscillators also shifting into positive territory. A continued advance above the $3,355 level, which is equivalent to the 50% retracement, may set the stage for more gains toward $3,372–3,374 and potentially the $3,400 psychological level. To the negative, near-term support lies in the $3,346 area, with a violation unleashing the $3,300 round number and further losses toward $3,283–3,282. FORECAST If gold is able to hold its recovery above important resistance levels, the momentum may stretch to the $3,372–3,374 range based on Fed rate cut hopes and safe-haven buying in a climate of geopolitical uncertainty. Another push may enable the metal to retake the $3,400 level and even test the monthly high around $3,408–3,410 levels, particularly if bond yields continue to decline and the US Dollar loses ground. Conversely, not breaking above near-term support at $3,346 or a break below $3,324–3,323 support would re-ignite selling pressure. This would expose gold to retesting of the $3,300 psychological barrier, with further losses potentially pushing it down toward $3,283–3,282 and even the end-June swing low around $3,268 should risk appetite firm up and the US Dollar regain momentum.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Above $3,300 on Fed Uncertainty and Tenuous Israel-Iran Ceasefire

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  • June 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) enjoys a modest intraday bullish bias, trading well above the $3,300 level on mixed market directions. Although expectations for impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts keep the US Dollar in check and provide support to the non-yielding metal, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a generally upbeat risk sentiment cap strong upside strength. Lack of confidence in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire introduces a geopolitical risk premium that underlies gold’s safe-haven status. Market participants now look to major US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, jobless claims, and the PCE Price Index, which can offer further guidance for the USD and prices of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • At least 50 bps of Fed rate reductions by year-end are being priced in by markets, with attention on whether July will see a move and the testimony by Powell for additional indications. • Ongoing anxiety regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire and looming concerns about renewed hostilities are continuing to fuel gold’s safe-haven demand. • Traders look to Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the PCE Price Index later this week, potentially altering Fed expectations and affecting USD and gold. • Strong support at around $3,300 with scope for downside towards $3,245 if broken; upside limited near $3,370–$3,400 unless robust bullish momentum is seen. Gold price stays firm above the $3,300 level on Wednesday, buoyed by subdued US Dollar sentiment and persisting geopolitical volatility around the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Although the precious metal is buoyed by safe-haven buying and anticipations of rate cuts by the Fed this year, dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have cooled bullish enthusiasm. Investors seem guarded before critical US macroeconomic releases, such as GDP numbers and the PCE Price Index, which may determine forthcoming Fed policy and, therefore, affect gold’s short-term direction. Gold price remains above $3,300 despite conflicting signals from Fed rhetoric and geopolitical tensions. Soft USD and tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in place to underpin safe-haven demand for the metal. Bulls remain on hold pending crucial US data releases that will determine the direction in Fed policy and gold pricing. •  Markets expect at least 50 bps of rate cuts by end of year, keeping the USD on back foot. •  Additional information from the Fed Chair will provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy direction. •  The major releases such as Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and PCE Index will have an impact on sentiment. •  Any escalation in tensions may push gold demand towards safe-haven. •  Gold’s direction is still very much dependent on USD weakness or strength. •  Keep an eye on price action in the $3,300 support and $3,370–$3,400 resistance areas. • Short-term gold price direction will be influenced by equity market trends and geopolitical announcements. Gold price remains in a modestly bullish stance, underpinned by increasing market optimism that the Federal Reserve can start its rate-cutting journey towards the end of this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s comments in recent times presaged a subtle move towards easing policy, yet investors are still eyeing the general economic context, which indicates decelerating inflation and weakening labor markets. This kindles hopes of policy accommodation, which usually helps non-yielding assets such as gold. Uncertainty in global markets also preserves the safe-haven credentials of gold despite overall sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events also prove instrumental in sustaining support for gold. Although a formal ceasefire has been observed between Israel and Iran, recent cross-border military operations by both nations have thrown its longevity into doubt. The tensions are a promoter of a risk-averse environment, pushing investors to hold on to safe-haven assets. In the meantime, some expectation is building for major US economic data releases this week, which may have implications both for the Federal Reserve’s positioning and subsequent market action. Therefore, gold is still in the spotlight as traders weigh interest rate expectations against continuing geopolitical threats. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price has recently broken below a short-term rising channel, confirming the potential for a change in momentum to the downside. Oscillators on the daily and 4-hourly charts are gaining bearish momentum, reflecting increasing pressure from the bears. The level of major resistance is now close to the $3,368–$3,370 area, which was earlier acting as channel support. Unless bulls overcome this level with strength, any rallies can be met with selling. On the bearish side, a clear break below the $3,300 level can pave the way for fall towards the $3,245–$3,210 support level. FORECAST If the geopolitics further deteriorate or if future US macroeconomic indicators continue to support the expectation of a near-term Fed rate cut, gold may regain positive bullish traction. A follow-through above the $3,370 resistance band could trigger new buying interest, prompting the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. Additional strength above this level may set the stage for a test of the $3,420–$3,450 region, particularly if the US Dollar further depreciates. Conversely, if the ceasefire in Israel-Iran persists and future US economic releases are stronger than anticipated, it might reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. If the price breaks below the support level of $3,300, it would be a bearish indicator and might result in a fall to $3,245. Sustained selling pressure can continue the decline even lower to the $3,210–$3,200 level, while further losses can be envisaged if the US Dollar gains traction or Fed rate cut expectations are diminished.

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Gold

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Falters Below $3,345 as Markets Wait for US CPI Report

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  • June 11, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is moderately higher, holding on to a slightly weaker US Dollar as investors go cautious in anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Although it posted gains, the commodity is encountering strong resistance around the $3,345 area, after a recent retreat from the previous week’s $3,400 top. Market sentiment is still weak following doubt about the sustainability of the US-China trade deal, with potential for further volatility if inflation data next week exceeds expectations. Technically, gold still seems to be in a corrective A-B-C sequence with the ability to test higher levels before continuing its southward trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is keenly observing the next US Consumer Price Index reading, which has the potential to shape inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. • Concern about the longevity of the US-China “framework” accord remains over market sentiment and go-safe-haven demand • Gold is experiencing stiff resistance around the $3,345 level, with further upside limited unless there is a breakthrough. • The ongoing A-B-C corrective phase points toward eventual short-term gains to $3,375 before bearish momentum resumes. Gold prices are trading with a modest positive bias as the US Dollar tapers globally, fueled by investor wariness prior to the highly anticipated US CPI report. XAU/USD, still under pressure below $3,345 resistance, continues to fail to revisit last week’s highs of around $3,400. The subdued market reaction to the US-China trade agreement, owing to its vagueness, contributes to the uncertainty. With inflation numbers set to bring in new signals, traders are being cautious, holding gold in a tight range of consolidation. Gold maintains modest gains as the US Dollar falters in anticipation of significant US CPI numbers. Resistance at $3,345 is holding back further gains, as doubts about the US-China trade agreement have investors in wait-and-see mode. Markets look to inflation numbers for the next move. • Gold (XAU/USD) makes modest gains in the face of widespread US Dollar weakness. • Resistance at $3,345 still caps further up-limits. • Investors are hesitant in anticipation of the release of US CPI. • Doubts surrounding US-China trade deal augment gold’s safe-haven buying. • Technicals indicate an ongoing A-B-C corrective pattern. • Potential short-term price higher towards $3,375 before possible further downswing. • Critical support is at $3,290 and then $3,245. Gold is supported since market players take a defensive approach prior to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The inflation reading is likely to give vital clues regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve going forward. With the uncertainty of price pressure and potential interest rate hikes, investors are shunning big positions, especially in the US Dollar, to provide indirect support to gold. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the newly signed US-China trade deal, presented as a “framework” to ease tensions, has not been able to generate robust market optimism. Insufficient tangible specifics and doubts over the long-term sustainability of the deal have kept the market mood cautious. This prevailing uncertainty continues to drive demand for safe-haven instruments such as gold, with investors seeking cover against possible global economic turbulence. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is in a corrective phase after its pullback from the recent high at around $3,400. Price is forming a narrow range, with resistance at $3,345 capping upside attempts. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is drifting around the neutral 50 level, reflecting indecision among traders. Elliott Wave shows a current A-B-C correction, with potential extension up to the $3,375 zone before any fresh selling momentum. Key support levels at $3,290 and $3,245 could attract buyers if approached. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens, gold may break above current resistance at $3,345. A breakout would potentially clear the way to the $3,375 area, which sits along the reverse trendline and may encourage additional buying interest. Further US Dollar weakness and a softer-than-anticipated US CPI print may serve as the catalyst needed for gold to retest higher prices and move toward last week’s high near $3,400. On the negative side, inability to breach the $3,345 resistance level can result in fresh selling pressure. A drop below near-term support at $3,290 can leave gold vulnerable to further losses, with the subsequent support area at $3,245, seen by past highs and lows. A higher-than-expected US CPI figure or favorable risk sentiment due to geopolitical events can push gold down as appetite for safe-haven assets fades.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Staggers Despite Growing Appetite for Risk and Strengthening USD, but Bets on Fed Rate Cut Provide Comfort

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  • May 1, 2025
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Gold prices are now down for a third day in a row, having plunged to a two-week low, as a stronger US Dollar and better risk appetite—fuelled by a reduction in US-China tensions and positive trade rhetoric—tarnish the demand for the safe-haven metal. But the drawback looks limited as disappointing US macroeconomic data, such as a surprise GDP decline and lower inflation readings, drive expectations for dovish Federal Reserve rate cuts. These expectations, in turn, limit USD appreciation and give gold a cushion. Investors now look to important US economic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for more definitive guidance on the Fed’s policy course and gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Focus in the market is on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may have a major impact on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and gold’s direction. •  Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Lower GDP and softening inflation add to expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, which may cap USD strength and prop up gold prices. •  Geopolitical Updates: Any strengthening of geopolitical tensions, especially including Russia or US-China relations, might reactivate safe-haven demand for gold. •  Technical Levels under Scrutiny: A confirmed breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support level could trigger further downtrends towards $3,200 and $3,160, while attempts to recover are repelled at $3,260–$3,265 and $3,300. Multiple important factors that can influence the metal’s short-term direction are being closely observed by gold traders. All attention is now focused on forthcoming US economic data, especially the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may impact hopes surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Softer inflation and a shock GDP contraction earlier have already fueled market expectations for deep rate cuts, potentially curbing additional gains for the USD and underpinning gold. Geopolitical threats, particularly escalating tensions between Russia and events in US-China relations, also continue to be in the spotlight as possible drivers of safe-haven flows. Technically, a persistent breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support area could pave the way for further losses, while resistance around $3,265 and $3,300 could limit attempts at recovery. Gold’s short-term prospects are contingent upon pivotal US data releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls release, and shifting Fed rate cut expectations. Geopolitical uncertainty and USD strength will also be influential, with technical support at $3,229 continuing to be paramount for direction of price. • Gold prices are under pressure, near a two-week low due to firmer USD and risk-friendly sentiment. •  US-China trade optimism and easing tensions are lifting investor sentiment, lowering demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  US Dollar strength is suppressing gold, underpinned by positive sentiment and hawkish comments. •  Soft US macro data—such as a surprise contraction in GDP and weaker inflation—are fueling hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. •  Markets now expect as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through year-end, which could top USD gains and underpin gold. •  Geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe, could give a safety bid and cap gold’s downside. •  Key technical levels to monitor are support at $3,229 and resistance at $3,265–$3,300, which will determine short-term price action. Gold still wanders through a geopolitical and macroeconomic maze, where market sentiment is influenced by a mix of economic instability and changing international dynamics. The recent relaxation of US-China tensions and upbeat trade talks have heightened investor optimism, limiting the attractiveness of conventional safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, improved US Dollar performance with supportive comments about international trade agreements has dampened demand for gold. This notwithstanding, gold is being underpinned by increasing fear about the US economy’s health, as demonstrated by a surprising GDP contraction and decelerating private sector hiring. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Inflationary pressure also seems to be abating, with the most recent information indicating a deceleration in both headline and core inflation. These events have reinforced market expectations of further aggressive interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve over the next few months. As market players adjust strategies to meet new economic data and central bank cues, gold still has some underlying support. At the same time, lingering geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to Russia and Eastern Europe, continue to introduce uncertainty that can maintain interest in the precious metal as a long-term hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently fell below the crucial support range of $3,265–$3,260, prompting a cascade of selling pressure and driving prices to a two-week low of $3,221. Although momentum indicators have begun to lose bullish momentum, a clear break below the next significant support at $3,229–$3,228 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would affirm a bearish continuation towards the $3,200 level and potentially the $3,160 zone. On the upside, any recovery attempts may face resistance near the $3,260–$3,265 zone, followed by stronger barriers around the $3,300 mark and the $3,348–$3,350 supply region, where renewed selling interest could emerge. FORECAST If upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls report, reinforces expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold could find renewed support and begin to recover. A softer labor market or softer inflation numbers can heighten pressure on the Fed to cut policy, softening the US Dollar and making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Gold prices in such a case can recover towards the $3,300 mark and even retest higher resistance levels if risk-off sentiment returns owing to geopolitical tensions or global economic issues. On the other hand, in case the US economic data surprise positively—indicating resilience in the labor market or more sticky inflation—market expectations of Fed rate cuts diminish, a stronger USD results, and gold comes under additional downward pressure. Continued absence of safe-haven demand on account of bettering risk sentiment, particularly following positive global trade updates, could also be responsible for further losses. If gold falls below the $3,229 support level decisively, it may lead to a deeper correction towards $3,200 and even the $3,160 region in

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