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Gold Remains Steady Near $3,350 as Markets Wait for US CPI Figures and Clarity on Tariff Policy

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  • August 12, 2025
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Gold remained steady around $3,350 on Tuesday after yesterday’s steep fall, as investors waited for the July US CPI figures to get new leads on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Market sentiment was positive following US President Donald Trump’s declaration exempting Gold imports from new levies, together with hopes of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and an extension of the US-China tariff moratorium. Although geopolitical and trade dynamics gave some respite, investors remained on guard, with the next inflation data due soon to be the catalyst for Gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  July inflation report should reveal headline CPI at 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, with core CPI expected to increase 0.3% MoM. • Trump’s revelation exempting Gold imports from new tariffs relieved supply chain fears but markets are holding out for an official executive order. • Hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and a 90-day US-China tariff truce extension have soothed near-term market nerves. • Gold continues below important resistance at $3,400 with bears risks to $3,320 and $3,250 unless CPI data triggers a bounce. Gold prices recovered around $3,350 on Tuesday after Monday’s steep 1.6% decline to a one-week low as markets waited for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. The valuable metal gained modest support from a weaker US Dollar and stable Treasury yields, as well as relief at US President Donald Trump’s announcement that Gold imports would be excluded from new tariffs. Hopes of possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the extension of the US-China tariff truce have alleviated near-term geopolitical and trade tensions. But with Gold still below the crucial $3,400 resistance level and technical indicators pointing to declining momentum, the next inflation report may be the ultimate catalyst for near-term price direction. Gold is trading at near $3,350 as market players wait for crucial US CPI data for new policy signals. Tariff relief on Gold imports and reduced geopolitical tensions provide comfort, but prices continue to be capped below $3,400 resistance. • Gold stabilizes around $3,350 after Monday’s 1.6% loss to a one-week low. • Traders look to July US CPI figures, due to demonstrate headline inflation at 2.8% YoY. • Trump declares Gold imports to be exempt from new US tariffs, alleviating supply fears. • Hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a 90-day US-China tariff truce extension improve mood. • US Dollar and Treasury yields are still subdued ahead of inflation data. • Technical charts indicate resistance at $3,400, with downside objectives at $3,320 and $3,250. • Weaker CPI might favor Gold prices, while hotter inflation might support the US Dollar and weigh on bullion. Gold prices traded around $3,350 on Tuesday as investors remained on their guard before the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, a key event likely to shape the next policy action by the Federal Reserve. The market gleaned some respite after US President Donald Trump announced Gold imports would be exempt from fresh US tariffs, easing fears over near-term supply chain disruptions. Optimism regarding potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce also eased market tensions, although investors continue to look for near-term economic data for clearer direction. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView July CPI is seen to report headline inflation increasing 0.2% MoM, with the year-over-year rate rising to 2.8%. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy, is seen increasing 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY, reflecting continued underlying pressures. These are watched closely for evidence that tariffs are being passed through into inflation and for their likely influence on the Fed’s September interest rate decision. Further focus will shift to comments from Fed officials later in the day, as well as future economic releases such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales that may continue to influence market forecasts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to struggle beneath the crucial $3,400 psychological level, with repeated failure to push higher maintaining it as a firm resistance area. On the 4-hourly chart, the prices are below both the 21-period SMA at $3,377 and the 50-period SMA at $3,363, showing diminishing bullish momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37, reflecting increasing downside momentum short of oversold levels, while the MACD remains in negative levels with a bearish crossover, reinforcing seller supremacy. There is immediate resistance at $3,363 and $3,377, with support at $3,330–$3,320, a break below which could reveal the $3,250 range floor. FORECAST If the US CPI report later this week is softer than forecasted, it may cement market views of a September interest rate reduction, weakening the US Dollar and enhancing the demand for Gold. A dovish turn in Fed commentary, combined with geopolitical and trade calm, may give Gold the push to retest the $3,377–$3,400 resistance range. A clear break above $3,400 would pave the way for a move to $3,450, with still higher gains on offer should safe-haven demand pick up. On the other hand, a hotter-than-anticipated CPI print would curb rate cut hopes, advance the US Dollar, and bear heavily on Gold prices. A breakdown below the $3,330–$3,320 support level may initiate a more severe correction to the floor of the $3,250 range. An extended violation of this level might intensify selling pressure, which could bring the $3,000 level back into play if risk appetite turns against safe-haven assets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Spikes Over $3,350 as Trump Ramps Up EU Trade War and US Fiscal Risks Become Deeper

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  • May 24, 2025
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This week, gold prices spurted above $3,350, spurred by increased safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to ramp up trade war tensions with the European Union by threatening 50% tariffs on imports. Investor worries over fiscal stability in the U.S. added to the rally following the House’s passage of a $4 trillion debt-burdened budget. In spite of some relaxation of geopolitical tensions with developments on the Ukraine and Iran negotiations, risk aversion was still high, driving XAU/USD up by almost 5% on the week. A weakening US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and dovish Fed commentary also helped drive the bullish trend in gold markets. KEY LOOKOUTS • As the Fed’s go-to inflation indicator, the report will have a large bearing on interest rate expectations and gold prices. A less-than-expected print could make the case for cutting rates even stronger, boosting gold. • Market participants will scrutinize the wording and tone for hints on the policy direction of the central bank and the course of rates into the growing fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties. • Important economic data that will provide insight into the condition of the U.S. economy; poor data could push gold as a safe-haven asset. • If XAU/USD breaks above the $3,400 level of resistance, a test of the record high around $3,500 may come next, fueled by robust bullish momentum and a weak risk environment. Gold traders will in the coming days keep a keen eye on important U.S. economic indicators, such as the Core PCE Price Index, which might influence perceptions of future Federal Reserve policy action. The upcoming release of the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes might also indicate the central bank’s position amid increasing fiscal stability and inflation fears. Moreover, the Durable Goods Orders and the second GDP estimate will be under scrutiny as they provide additional insights into the U.S. economy’s strength. Technically, a clear break above the resistance of $3,400 can trigger a rally to the all-time high of $3,500, particularly with risk sentiment being weak. Gold dealers are looking ahead to future U.S. information, such as Core PCE inflation and revisions to GDP, for hints at Fed policy. A move above $3,400 has the potential to spark a push toward the all-time high of $3,500 while risk aversion continues and the dollar remains weak. •  Gold advanced above $3,350, up almost 5% for the week as geopolitical and economic uncertainty increased. • Trump ramped up trade tensions with threats of 50% tariffs on EU imports, fueling safe-haven demand. • U.S. House approved a $4 trillion debt-laden budget, fueling worries about fiscal stability and pushing gold higher. • The U.S. Dollar weakened, with DXY down more than 0.66%, serving as a tailwind for gold prices. • Treasury yields decreased, making gold a more attractive non-yielding asset. • Soft U.S. housing data and cautious comments from the Fed fueled investor jitters. • The major resistance is at $3,400, with a possible rise to $3,500 if positive momentum is sustained. Gold is attracting strong investor buying amid global uncertainties that are rising, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump aggressively escalated trade tensions with the European Union. His warning to place tariffs of 50% on EU imports revived fears of a wider trade conflict that is leading to a flight towards safe-haven assets such as gold. This action was combined with scathing criticism from U.S. authorities regarding the stalemate in negotiations with Europe, further weakening investor confidence. Furthermore, geopolitical events, such as continuous negotiations on Ukraine and Iran, have brought brief relief but have not considerably assuaged the risk-averse sentiment of markets. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, local fiscal worries within the United States are exerting additional pressure. The House of Representatives just voted to pass a $4 trillion budget that notably raises the national debt ceiling, and this is raising eyebrows among investors regarding long-term economic stability. Such concerns are added to by declining confidence in U.S. assets and overall caution by the Federal Reserve, as noted by major policymakers. Despite these coinciding factors, gold remains a safe-haven store of value in an otherwise volatile world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in a very strong uptrend, with bullish momentum bolstered by a positive macro environment. Price has made steadily higher highs and higher lows, reflecting ongoing support from buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is increasing but remains below overbought territory, implying potential for additional upside. Pivotal resistance levels to observe are the psychological $3,400 level, followed by May 7 high of $3,438, and the all-time high of $3,500. On the downside, near-term support is at $3,300, with stronger support at $3,204 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,199. FORECAST Gold prices will continue to get supported in the near term because of ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions. If the U.S. Dollar weakens further and Federal Reserve sends a dovish signal in the face of weakening inflation data or weakening economic trends, then gold may continue its rally. A move above the $3,400 level could set the stage for the way to the May high of $3,438, with the possibility to challenge the all-time high of $3,500. Sustained safe-haven appetite, particularly in the wake of trade tensions and fiscal worries, may maintain bullish strength. To the downside, any indications of de-escalating tensions between the U.S. and EU or better-than-anticipated U.S. economic data may temper gold’s bull run. Should the Federal Reserve take on a more hawkish stance or when yields start climbing once more, gold may be pressured. A fall below the $3,300 support mark could prompt further falls toward the $3,204 region, then the 50-day SMA around $3,199. Increased demand for risk assets and a recovery in the U.S. Dollar would also prevent gold from moving higher in the near term.

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