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Gold Further Rises on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Tensions

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  • September 24, 2025
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Gold continued to rise on Wednesday, propelled by speculation of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions. The metal drew dip-buyers despite a limited recovery in the US Dollar, which limited some upside following overbought conditions. Increased tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened tensions in the Middle East strengthened gold’s safe-haven attract. Traders now look to a series of important US economic indicators, such as New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due to impact near-term price action. In general, however, the least resistant path for gold is still higher, although resistance around the $3,800 level may challenge bullish pressure. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are monitoring US Federal Reserve signals closely, with markets hoping for possible rate cuts in October and December. • Rising tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East are continuing to underpin gold as a safe-haven asset. • Such important releases as New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and PCE Price Index can impact gold and USD price actions. • Gold encounters short-term resistance at the highest level of $3,800, with support of $3,710 to $3,750, which could dictate the future course of action. Gold is still clinging to its gains as speculation of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained geopolitical tensions support the safe-haven metal. Even with a slight recovery in the US Dollar, gold attracted dip-buyers, solidifying its northbound push from the $3,750 area. Traders continue to eye important forthcoming US economic releases, such as New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may shape near-term price action. Despite strong bullish sentiment, resistance at the $3,800 level and support in the region of $3,710–$3,750 will be decisive in setting the direction of XAU/USD’s next move. Gold is underpinned by hopes for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions, drawing dip-buyers despite a small USD recovery. Important resistance at $3,800 and support at $3,710–$3,750 will determine short-term prices. • Gold moves further higher on US Federal Reserve rate cut hopes. • Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflict tensions enhance safe-haven demand. • The modest US Dollar recovery could limit short-term XAU/USD upside. • Gold is drawing dip-buyers in the $3,750 area. • The $3,800 resistance level is poised to challenge bullish support. • Levels of support range from $3,710 to $3,750, providing a solid foundation for dips. • Near-term gold catalysts include the following US economic reports: New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and PCE Price Index. Gold is still gaining momentum as investors act on anticipations of more US Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Recent fighting in Ukraine and the Middle East has strengthened the attractiveness of gold as a haven asset, attracting the interest of purchasers wanting to hedge against uncertainty. The market is focused on Fed cues, with speculators expecting possible monetary easing later this year, which is bolstering gold’s underlying demand. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from geopolitical and monetary policy considerations, the coming US economic numbers would also shape sentiment. The New Home Sales, Q2 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index reports are eyed by market participants. In general, the mix of policy expectations, geopolitical tension, and major economic indicators is maintaining high interest in gold as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is floating above the $3,750 level of support, reflecting sustained bullishness in the near term. The short-term charts reflect overbought levels, and higher movements can be expected to encounter resistance near the $3,800 zone. A clear break above this mark can pave the way for further upsides, but a fall below the $3,750 region can probe support around $3,710–$3,700. On the whole, the technical configuration is looking cautiously bullish, with the main levels providing cues for prospective entries and exits for the traders. FORECAST Gold is likely to continue its upward trajectory as long as Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions remain supportive. A sustained move above the $3,800 level could attract further buying interest, potentially extending gains toward new highs in the near term. Strong demand from safe-haven seekers may reinforce bullish momentum, especially if upcoming US economic data remains soft or below expectations. On the negative side, gold may come under pressure if the US Dollar hardens or Fed cues imply a reduced rate cut pace. A breakdown below the $3,750 support area may lead to follow-through selling, which can bring out the $3,710–$3,700 area. These important support levels need to be monitored closely by traders, as a strong break may open the doors to more severe corrective moves.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Pulls Back from All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Rate Verdict: Will Powell Trigger the Next Rally?

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  • September 17, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back from all-time highs around $3,703 as market participants wait with bated breath for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, set to offer a 25 basis point reduction. As of writing, the metal trades at about $3,675, pushed lower by a minor US Dollar rebound but underpinned by muted Treasury yields and robust safe-haven buying. Although profit-taking has pulled recent advances, the overall bullish trend is intact, with the Fed’s policy expectation and Powell’s comment guiding whether Gold resumes its advance towards fresh highs or gets into a sharper correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone expects a 25 bps cut, but even suggestions of more or quicker easing could have a big influence on Gold’s direction. • The tone of Fed Chair regarding inflation, labor market conditions, and future policy direction will be essential for determining market sentiment. • Levels of immediate support are $3,650–$3,645, and resistance levels are $3,675–$3,700, with $3,703 as the primary breakout level. • Geopolitical uncertainties and economic uncertainty remain the drivers of Gold’s bullish thesis in spite of interim corrections. Prices of Gold are settling back from their new all-time highs at around $3,703, with market players waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for the next directional signal. The precious metal is at around $3,675, down fractionally on the day as investors take profits and the US Dollar demonstrates mild firmness. Market expectations are strongly biased towards a 25 basis point rate reduction, but focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s direction and the revised economic projections for hints on the speed of future easing. Even as the recent pullback from Gold exists, its broader bullish trend continues to be underpinned by safe-haven demand, tame Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Gold drops from record highs of about $3,703 as traders wait for the Fed’s rate move, with markets penciled in for a 25 bps cut. XAU/USD is trading at $3,675, with Powell’s direction set to guide the next major move in prices. The pullback notwithstanding, safe-haven demand still remains bullish for the overall outlook. • Gold pulls back from record highs of about $3,703 as traders hold on for the Fed’s policy move. • XAU/USD is trading at about $3,675, down close to 0.35% on the day. • The markets are forecasting a 25 bps Fed rate cut, bringing the funds rate down to 4.00%-4.25%. • Powell’s press conference and new economic projections will be driving market sentiment. • Support in the immediate vicinity is $3,650–$3,645 and resistance of $3,675–$3,700. • Safe-haven buying, muted yields, and geopolitical tensions support Gold’s overall uptrend. • A dovish Fed may initiate new highs, while caution would risk a more significant correction. Gold is giving a breather to its record-breaking rally, as investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The precious metal’s price has been boosted by hopes of looser US monetary policy, ongoing global uncertainties, and healthy safe-haven demand. Investors are keeping a close eye on how the Fed will weigh slowing job growth and sticky inflation since its policy framework will be instrumental in determining the market direction for the remainder of the year. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from monetary policy, Gold is underpinned by broader macroeconomic and political variables. The continued geopolitical tensions, worry about world growth, and increased uncertainty of US politics continue to uphold its status as a safe-haven asset. With major banks expecting several rate cuts through the end of the year, the overall background still supports Gold, and thus the Fed’s guidance is a key event for market players in focus. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is steadying around $3,675 after pulling back from the all-time high of $3,703. Initial support is found at $3,650–$3,645, corresponding to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while the resistance is at $3,675–$3,700. A move below support would risk exposing the $3,620 area, while a rebound might force a retest of the all-time high, with possible extension to $3,750. The RSI at 51 indicates neutral momentum after cooling from overbought, while the MACD reflects declining bullish strength, indicating the Fed’s move is likely to be the catalyst for the next big move. FORECAST If the Fed communicates a dovish tone with the broadly anticipated 25 bps rate cut, Gold may get back into gear and test the record high of $3,703. A firm breakdown above this level may set the path towards $3,750 and beyond, backed by safe-haven demand, muted yields, and forecasts of additional policy accommodation. Increased geopolitical risk or indications that the US economy is weakening can further drive buying interest. Conversely, if Powell’s advice is conservative or reduces expectations on the extent of future cuts, Gold could attract selling pressure again. Breaking below the $3,650 support area could reveal lower levels around $3,620 and the psychological $3,600 level. A sharper US Dollar recovery or a reduction in geopolitical tensions could also deter bullion, bringing in a longer-term corrective phase before any new rally attempt.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Hovers Near Record Levels as US Federal Reserve Rate Cut Spec Bets Lose Strength US Dollar

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  • September 16, 2025
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Gold prices hover around record levels after reaching the $3,690 level, as increasing hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut continue to spur weakness in the US Dollar and shore up the non-yielding metal. Though overbought conditions have driven marginal profit-taking in advance of pivotal central bank announcements this week, such as Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ decisions, downside for Gold is still limited. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to support safe-haven demand, maintaining the overall Gold outlook bullish in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets overwhelmingly anticipate a 25 bps rate cut, with Powell’s cues for subsequent policy actions to influence Gold’s next path. • Policy statements from the BoC, BoE, and BoJ towards the end of this week can introduce volatility in Gold prices. • Overbought RSI readings above 70 indicate modest upside momentum at the $3,700 level, instilling caution for new entries. • Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to offer safe-haven support to Gold. Gold continues in a bullish consolidation close to record levels as investors wait for pivotal central bank announcements this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates by 25 bps, but the focus lies on Powell’s comments on the speed of future easing, which will have a significant bearing on the US Dollar and the path of Gold. While technicals indicate overbought levels that can constrain near-term gains above the $3,700 level, safe-haven demand fueled by recurring geopolitical tensions still buffers the downside, maintaining a positive tone for the precious metal. Gold hovers at all-time highs near $3,690 as Fed rate-cut speculation damps the US Dollar. Overbought levels restrain near-term upside, though geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand remain supportive of the bullish trend. • Gold approached a new record high at around $3,690 in the Asian session on Tuesday. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the US Dollar, supporting Gold’s allure. • Markets expect a 25 bps reduction with an eye on Powell’s hint on additional easing ahead. • Overbought RSI values greater than 70 indicate slim room for near-term upside profits. • Decision from major central banks from BoC, BoE, and BoJ this week could contribute to volatility. • Geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine fighting and Middle East unrest offer safe-haven support. • Firm support levels appear at $3,645 and $3,610, while $3,700 is the major resistance barrier. Gold is trading close to record highs as investors continue to be interested in the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. As markets are mostly pricing in a 25 bps cut, all eyes now turn towards the Fed’s revised economic projections and Powell’s comments, which will likely influence expectations for the pace of easing over the next few months. The dovish bias has been putting significant downward pressure on the US Dollar, lifting demand for the non-yielding precious metal. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the Fed, investors are keeping a close eye on other central bank announcements this week, such as decisions by the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. In addition, increased geopolitical tensions—covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict to renewed Middle East upheaval—are creating further safe-haven demand for Gold. This mix of supportive fundamentals and geopolitical tensions continues to have investor sentiment firmly bullish. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent breakout above a bullish flag pattern is an indicator of strong upside momentum, though the daily RSI remaining above 70 is an indicator of overbought conditions and caution is needed. The $3,700 level has now emerged as a critical psychological resistance, while near-term support is in the form of $3,645, followed by $3,610. A break and hold above $3,700 could lead to further increases, but a break below $3,600 could see a more severe corrective move towards the $3,500 area. FORECAST In the event that the Fed reaffirms a dovish policy and hints at several rate cuts in the near future, Gold can penetrate the $3,700 psychological level and continue its rally. Ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, combined with geopolitical tensions-driven safe-haven demand, may drive more upside momentum and maintain buyers firmly in charge. Conversely, if the Fed provides a dovish outlook or cues a slower pace of easing, Gold can come under profit-taking pressure. A retreat below $3,645 can put the $3,610–$3,600 zone in jeopardy, and a further fall can even put the $3,500 level in the spotlight, particularly if risk appetite picks up in overseas markets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Bulls Hold Ground as Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Uncertainty Push XAU/USD to Record Highs

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  • September 12, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is holding its ground near record highs as a mix of Fed rate cut speculation, a soft US Dollar, and heightened geopolitical tensions power safe-haven demand. Weaker US labor market data and softer inflation have eclipsed more robust inflation, underpinning expectations for sharp policy easing by the Federal Reserve, and increased political instability in France and Japan, rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, and Middle East unrest further add to the attractions of gold. In spite of overbought sentiment and bullish market tone capping aggressive purchases, the metal is poised for a fourth straight week of robust gains, with the potential for further gains to $3,700. KEY LOOKOUTS • Three rate cuts this year are fully priced in by markets, beginning with a 25 bps cut next FOMC meeting. • USD stays down at multi-month lows as Treasury yields fall to five-month low, underpinning gold prices. • Safe-haven demand is fueled by rising tensions from Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East instability, and fresh trade sanctions. • Major resistance is at $3,675–$3,700, with short-term support at $3,630 and more heavily at $3,580–$3,560. Prices for gold are remaining close to historic highs as investors persist in preferring the metal against the backdrop of anticipated multiple cuts in Fed rates and continued geopolitical tensions. Weaker than expected US labor market data strengthened the argument for drastic monetary easing, keeping the US Dollar weak and Treasury yields at multi-month lows that in turn support non-yielding gold. Rising tensions in Russia and Ukraine, political upheavals in Europe and Asia, and continuing trade frictions also add to the metal’s safe-haven attraction. In spite of overbought technical levels, the overall outlook is bullish, and gold is headed for its fourth straight week of gains. Gold remains near record levels as Fed rate cut expectations and a soft US Dollar fuel safe-haven demand. Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties additionally support the bullish momentum, keeping the metal headed for weekly gains. • Gold (XAU/USD) remains near record levels on the back of Fed rate cut expectations. • Mild US labor market indicators have taken attention away from high inflation readings, adding to policy easing speculation. • Three Fed rate cuts are being priced in this year, beginning at the next FOMC meeting. • US Dollar is at multi-month lows as Treasury yields reach a five-month trough. • Geopolitical tensions from Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East unrest, political instability in France and Japan enhance safe-haven demand. • Technical analysis indicates resistance at $3,675–$3,700 and support at $3,630–$3,580 levels. • Gold is poised for its fourth straight week of solid gains on the back of overbought levels. Gold remains in high demand with investors as hopes for several Federal Reserve rate reductions linger strongly on the US Dollar and underpin demand for the haven metal. Weaker US labor market reports have overshadowed stronger inflation reports to further cement the argument for aggressive monetary easing throughout the year. With Treasury yields trending downward to multi-month lows, the non-yielding yellow metal is still a popular choice for investors looking for stability in uncertain times. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In addition to monetary policy, increasing geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in major economies further increase gold’s appeal. The Russia-Ukraine war, continuing instability in the Middle East, and trade pressures on international markets have all contributed to safe-haven inflows. Furthermore, political unrest in France and Japan contribute to the uncertain environment, making gold a choice asset for risk-shy investors and keeping sentiment decidedly supportive. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold holds a bullish setup by trading near all-time highs, although overbought daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings warrant caution. Near-term resistance is in the $3,657–$3,675 area, with a broken trendline above opening the door for the psychological $3,700 level. On the flip side, near support is at $3,630, and then at $3,612 and $3,600, which are solid cushions, which, if broken, might initiate a bigger correction towards the $3,580–$3,560 area. Technically, the outlook remains positive for buyers as long as gold remains above its crucial support levels. FORECAST Gold is well-placed to carry on with its rally as Fed rate cut hopes, muted US Dollar, and geopolitical tensions continue to present a favorable situation. A clean break above the $3,675–$3,700 level may pave the way for new all-time highs, with momentum propelling prices towards the $3,720–$3,750 level. Safe-haven demand, along with continued US yield weakness, is set to support bullish sentiment in the short term. Conversely, overbought technical levels and an overall upbeat risk sentiment may cap aggressive purchases, prompting profit-taking in the near term. Gold may test lower levels at $3,600 and $3,580 if it falls below the $3,630 support level, with a deeper correction laying bare the $3,560–$3,510 area. Although the underlying picture is favorable, short-term declines cannot be discounted as investors book profits following recent record prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rises to All-Time Highs Over $3,600 on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Safe-Haven Buying Panic

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  • September 8, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to new all-time highs over $3,600 per ounce on safe-haven buying panic and growing speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Soft US labor market numbers, topped by a big miss in Nonfarm Payrolls and an increase in unemployment, confirmed expectations of a 25 bps cut, with some speculators even looking at a bigger move. A declining US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and international geopolitical and political doubts continued to fuel the rally, maintaining Gold’s bullish momentum as the markets now anticipate the next US PPI and CPI releases for confirmation of the Fed’s next policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets price in a full 25 bps September Fed cut, with mounting speculation of a bigger 50 bps move. • This week’s PPI and CPI releases will be important in building expectations for the policy inclination of the Fed. • Geopolitical tensions, Japanese and French political unrest, and trade risks across the globe continue to enhance the attraction of Gold. • Support at the moment is close to $3,550–$3,500, while targets on the upside extend towards $3,650 and $3,700. Gold extends record-breaking surge, trading above $3,630 as safe-haven buying and strong Federal Reserve rate cut expectations keep the trend in motion. Poor US labor market statistics, such as a big miss in Nonfarm Payrolls and increasing unemployment, added to the expectation of a September rate cut, and declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar provided additional support. Geopolitical concerns and political uncertainties in France and Japan have strengthened the safe-haven strength of Gold, with buyers firmly in command as the market looks at major US inflation data later this week to see if the Fed chooses to make a standard 25 bps cut or weigh a bigger move. Gold jumps to new record highs near $3,630 on rising safe-haven demand and bets on Fed interest rate cuts, fueled by weak US labor, a weaker Dollar, and declining Treasury yields. Traders look to near-term PPI and CPI reports for policy direction. • Gold rises further above $3,630, posting new record highs. • Markets price almost a sure 25 bps September rate reduction with only a 10% chance of 50 bps. • August NFP created only 22K jobs versus 75K anticipated; unemployment level rose to 4.3%. • PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday are more important for determining Fed’s move. • Benchmark 10-year yield falls closer to 4.05%, favoring Gold’s bullish side. • Political instability in Japan and France together with trade risks perk up safe-haven demand. • Firm support at $3,550–$3,500 with upside targets at $3,650 and $3,700. Gold has risen to new all-time highs above $3,600 per ounce as a mix of safe-haven buying and increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September pushed the yellow metal to the highest level ever. The rally took hold after softer-than-anticipated US jobs numbers revealed a mere 22,000 jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate reaching its worst level since 2021. This supported expectations of a rate cut, which markets now perceive as nearly certain, as policymakers turn their attention to stabilizing the labor market and boosting growth. A weaker US Dollar and falling Treasury yields have added to the metal’s attractiveness, making Gold one of the year’s best-performing assets. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from economic releases, outside factors are also driving investor appetite for Gold. Central banks globally are still diversifying their reserves out of the US Dollar, and geopolitical risks and political instability in nations such as Japan and France are strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets. Trade policy risk in the United States provides investors with an additional note of caution, as they are increasingly looking toward Gold as a store of value. With inflation readings coming out later this week, attention now turns to how these points will influence the Federal Reserve’s next move, keeping Gold in the forefront as investors look for stability in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is solidly bullish as it trades way above its short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating high underlying momentum. The breach of the $3,500 consolidation range has laid the way to higher grounds, and the initial upside targets are at $3,650 and $3,700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought levels, which implies the threat of near-term pullbacks, but the trend continues as long as prices stay above the support zone of $3,550–$3,500. The Average Directional Index (ADX) greater than 30 also indicates the strength of the current rally, where the buyers are in command. FORECAST Gold’s momentum continues strong as investors price in nearly certain Fed rate cut in September, and growing speculation on a bigger 50 bps move if inflation data remains weak. Weak US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and continued geopolitical tensions offer further support, with the bias still upward. If safe-haven demand continues, Gold may test new psychological levels at $3,650 and perhaps $3,700 in the coming term. Despite the dominant bullish trend, threats of a corrective pullback persist as technical measures signal overbought readings. Any better-than-anticipated US PPI or CPI reading this week could reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, triggering profit-taking in Gold. Supportively, $3,550 is instant support, and a deeper retracement to $3,500 is possible if market sentiment changes.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Below $3,400 as Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Trade Nerves are Offset by Profit-Taking

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  • August 8, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) stayed under the $3,400 level on Friday, cutting intraday losses thanks to profit-taking and a small US Dollar rebound. An overall risk-on tone in international markets constrained safe-haven seeking, but trade tensions, sparked by US President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariff policies, and robust expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut softened the downside. Further support was provided by China’s ongoing gold buying for a ninth consecutive month, as weak US labor market indicators supported dovish Fed sentiment. Technical levels are overall bullish biased, albeit short-term gains are resisted, while investors wait for new signals from future FOMC speeches. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are pricing more than a 90% chance of a September rate cut, with at least two cuts by end-year, underpinning gold price. •  Trump’s new tariffs on Indian imports and scheduled levies on semiconductors and pharma keep safe-haven demand in the limelight. •  Upside capped at $3,422–$3,435, with robust support at $3,350 and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. •  Ongoing accumulation by China’s central bank for the ninth straight month provides a fundamental tailwind for bullion. Gold prices remained below the $3,400 level on Friday as profit-taking and a modest US Dollar recovery dented the metal, even as trade tensions and dovish Federal Reserve expectations provided support. Market sentiment favored the day on the back of Asian equity gains, damping safe-haven demand, but Trump’s new tariff moves and China’s nine months of consecutive buying of gold capped the downside. Weak US labor market data further supported expectations for a September rate cut, maintaining the overall outlook as cautiously bullish while technical resistance levels remain to cap near-term gains. Gold prices remained below $3,400 on Friday as profit-taking negated the positive impacts of trade tensions and expectations for Fed rate cuts. China’s ongoing gold purchases and soft US labor data supported, though robust technical resistance curbed further advances. •  Gold price (XAU/USD) still below $3,400 due to profit-taking and a modest recovery in the US Dollar. •  Risk-on mood from rallying Asian equities diminishes safe-haven demand. •  Trump’s new Indian import tariffs and forthcoming levies on other products maintain trade tensions. •  China’s central bank is buying gold for the ninth consecutive month in July. •  Soft US labor market data supports hopes of a September Fed rate cut. •  Technical resistance at $3,422–$3,435 and robust support at $3,350. •  General bullish tilt remains in place, but investors look for new direction from future FOMC orations. Gold prices remained firm below the $3,400 mark on Friday as markets weighed profit-taking against continued support from international economic and geopolitical realities. Risk-on sentiment in equities, especially in Asia, relaxed some safe-haven demand, while a slight US Dollar rebound placed mild pressure. But increased trade tensions—fueled by US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff action against Indian imports and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals—kept investors on guard. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continued its gold shopping binge for the ninth straight month in July, adding to demand for the metal from a strategic reserve viewpoint. XAUUSD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the macro level, soft US labor market data put more credibility to bets that the Federal Reserve will restart its rate-cutting cycle this September as markets are pricing in a high probability of several cuts by the end of the year. The US Jobless Claims report indicated an increase in unemployment applications, indicating a slowing jobs market and building the case for easier monetary policy. At the same time, political events surrounding the leadership of the Fed—like the President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran and possible successors to Chair Jerome Powell—provided an added layer of uncertainty for investors. These factors combined still dictate gold’s position as both a hedge against economic uncertainty and an overarching strategic asset for central banks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent climb through the $3,383–$3,385 zone of supply, combined with upbeat daily chart oscillators, is bearish for now, but short-term upside momentum is held back at around $3,422–$3,423 and the $3,434–$3,435 area. A convincing break above here may send the door ajar toward the $3,500 psychological level last visited in April. On the negative side, the $3,353–$3,350 region—coinciding with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—is still a critical support level, with a break below opening up $3,315 and $3,300 before revisiting the one-month low of $3,268. FORECAST If gold can hold on to its buying momentum beyond the $3,385 support area, the metal may revisit the $3,422–$3,423 resistance zone, with added strength leading towards $3,434–$3,435. A break above this area would most likely prompt bullish investors to head for the $3,500 psychological level, spurred possibly by ongoing Fed rate cut hopes, trade tensions, and central bank buying. Conversely, a breakdown below the $3,353–$3,350 support—underpinned by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—may change sentiment in favour of sellers, highlighting $3,315 as the next bearish target. Subsequent weakness below this level may drive prices towards the $3,300 round number and eventually the one-month low at $3,268, if risk appetite firms up and the US Dollar mounts a stronger recovery.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stable as USD Weakens Pre-FOMC; Trade Optimism Limits Gains

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  • July 28, 2025
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Gold prices began the week with a small bearish gap but regained their poise within short order as muted US Dollar demand provided some relief prior to the important Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although dip-buying re-emerged around the $3,312–3,311 level, investor trepidation dominated as a result of forthcoming US macroeconomic data releases such as GDP, PCE, and NFP. Hope for US trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and continued negotiations with China fueled risk appetite, capping gold’s upward potential. In contrast, political stress on the Fed and conflicting rate-cut expectations kept the USD under pressure, providing a lightly supportive environment for the safe-haven metal. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement and forward guidance, which will have a substantial influence on USD strength and gold demand. • Advanced Q2 GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be key in determining the near-term movement of both the USD and gold. • Bullish sentiment from US trade agreements with the EU and Japan, and additional negotiations with China, might persist in keeping a lid on gold’s safe-haven demand. • Political pressure from President Trump on the Fed, particularly on interest rates, could add volatility and direct investor sentiment to the USD and gold. Gold prices opened the week tentatively, filling a small bearish gap amidst tepid demand for the US Dollar as investors awaited the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Though the weaker dollar supported the non-yielding yellow metal to some extent, overall market enthusiasm fuelled by fresh US trade deals with the EU and Japan capped gold’s safe-haven bid. As with major US economic indicators—GDP, PCE, and NFP—due out later this week, traders are likely to exercise caution until more definitive signals come through regarding the Fed’s monetary policy direction and how it translates into both the dollar and gold. Gold prices rallied support around $3,312 as the US Dollar weakened before the key FOMC decision. But recent trade optimism and next US economic releases may cap further gains. Investors are cautious, expecting signals on the Fed’s policy shift. • Gold price filled a small bearish gap, touching support near the $3,312–3,311 area in the Asian session. • Mild USD demand prior to the FOMC meeting supported dip-buying interest in gold. • Investors look to important US data releases this week, including GDP, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls, that may affect USD and gold prices. • Recent US trade agreements with the EU and Japan supported risk sentiment, limiting gold’s safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates unchanged, in spite of political pressure from President Trump for a cut. • Market attention is on the FOMC decision and Powell’s words, which may influence expectations of future monetary policy. • Gold’s rally seems limited in the near term, as optimism in trade offsets the effect of a softer dollar. Gold prices began the new week in a guarded manner, winning modest buy interest as investors waited on the sidelines for the closely watched Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. As the US Dollar retreated from a two-day winning streak, gold attracted some dip-buyers, particularly since markets anticipate direction on future monetary policy. Over all, the market mood remained upbeat, fueled by developments on the trade front recently, including pacts between the US and major partners such as the European Union and Japan. These accords contributed to wider optimism, directing some investors into riskier assets while maintaining interest in conventional safe-havens such as gold in check. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, focus is shifting to a range of high-impact US economic reports due out this week, such as second-quarter GDP, the PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls. These figures are likely to give greater insight into the US economy’s health and may have a significant role to play in determining investor hopes on inflation and direction of policy. In the meantime, political pressure on the Federal Reserve from President Trump’s public calls for rate cuts remains raising questions about the independence of the central bank. This combination of economic and political developments is making it a complicated scene for gold traders, leading to a wait-and-watch scenario without any near-term triggers. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is exhibiting signs of consolidation after closing a small bearish gap, with the price action finding support in the vicinity of the $3,312–3,311 support zone. This zone is drawing dip-buying interest, indicating that buyers are short-term defending this level. But momentum gauges are neutral, indicating investor indecision in advance of important macroeconomic events. A break above the $3,325 resistance level could pave the way for a rebound, while slipping below the $3,311 support area may leave gold vulnerable to further losses. Overall, the technical context remains range-bound until a clear directional catalyst is established. FORECAST Gold can witness bullish momentum if the Federal Reserve hints at a dovish policy during the next FOMC meeting, particularly if Chair Jerome Powell indicates future rate reductions or economic imperfections. Moreover, below-estimate US macroeconomic data—like a deceleration in GDP growth, lower inflation through the PCE index, or a poor NFP report—can drag on the US Dollar, further enhancing gold’s attractiveness. Any rise in geopolitical tensions or market volatility could also push investors back to the safe-haven metal, potentially bringing prices above the $3,325 resistance level and opening the way towards higher targets. Conversely, however, if the Fed retains a more hawkish or neutral tone and rejects the requirement for rate cuts, the US Dollar is likely to regain strength, placing downward pressure on gold. Robust US economic data this week, especially higher-than-expected GDP and jobs data, could further suppress demand for the non-yielding metal. In addition, more optimism about developing global trade, including a possible breakthrough in US-China trade talks, may direct investor attention towards riskier assets, suppressing gold’s safe-haven demand and enhancing the possibility of a pullback towards the $3,300 or even $3,285 support levels.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls On US-Japan Trade Deal Optimism, Yet Fed Uncertainty Remains Bullish Hopeful

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  • July 23, 2025
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Gold prices are still in the doldrums even after a fleeting one-month high, due to optimism over a just-announced US-Japan trade agreement suppressing safe-haven buying. Despite positive global risk appetite and a small recovery in the US Dollar, anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve’s cut-rate trajectory and its autonomy remains supportive. Traders are waiting, however, for leading US housing figures and global PMI prints for further guidance. Technically, recent advances above the $3,400 mark indicate bull momentum is still in place, although further consolidation is likely to be seen close to important resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hopes for the US-Japan trade deal continue to drive risk sentiment higher, lowering demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates and fears regarding its autonomy are weakening the US Dollar, lending some support to gold prices. • Gold’s short-term support is at around $3,400, with resistance established around $3,438–3,452. A breakout above would pave the way for retracing the all-time high of $3,500. • Market players are looking at US Existing Home Sales and world flash PMIs for guidance on economic resilience and possible direction in the XAU/USD currency pair. Gold prices are muted as a positive backdrop to the US-Japan trade agreement continues to improve global risk appetite, making safe-haven assets less attractive. In spite of this, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and whether it can maintain its independence remain supportive of the precious metal. Though the US Dollar displays signs of a modest revamp, its general weakness in the face of diverging economic indicators restricts gold’s downside. The traders now wait for crucial data releases such as US Existing Home Sales and world PMIs for new cues that may have an impact on the subsequent directional movement in the XAU/USD pair. Gold price is still in pressure due to positive sentiment from the US-Japan trade agreement lowering safe-haven demand. Uncertainty over the Fed rate-cut trajectory and a weaker US Dollar, however, continue to provide support. Market players now look to crucial economic data for new directional signals. • Gold price fell after reaching a one-month high during the Asian session, dragged down by better risk appetite. • US-Japan trade deal hopes have improved sentiment, lowering demand for havens such as gold. • US Dollar registers a small rebound from two-week lows, imposing pressure on gold in early trading. • Fears about the independence of the Fed and rate-cutting uncertainty are limiting aggressive gains in USD, supporting gold. • Technical breakout above $3,400 indicates underlying bullish momentum in spite of intraday pullbacks. • Resistance is immediate at $3,438–3,452, with scope for a push toward the $3,500 all-time high should it break. • Market participants look to upcoming US housing data as well as global PMIs for new market direction and sentiment guidance. Gold prices continue to come under pressure following the announcement of a wide-ranging US-Japan trade agreement, with the deal, including mutual tariffs and increased market access for major industries like autos and agriculture, having allayed investor concerns and diverted attention from safe-haven assets like gold. The change in sentiment is indicative of increasing enthusiasm regarding global trade stability and calls for investors to explore higher-risk opportunities. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The political tensions in the United States, however, continue to affect market dynamics. President Trump’s frequent demands for reduced interest rates and attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had rekindled fears over the independence of the central bank. The uncertainty further increases with the pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for an internal review of the Fed. All these advances have kept the US Dollar subdued, providing some underlying support to gold in spite of the brightening global atmosphere. Market players now seek shelter in key economic indicators to get further details on the overall outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently broke above the important horizontal resistance at $3,370 and passed the psychological $3,400 marker, which pointed towards bullish strength. Daily chart oscillators are still positive and bear no signs of overboughtness, which implies the possibility of further gains. The nearest resistance is located at $3,438–3,452, with a continuation past that likely setting the stage for the all-time high at $3,500. On the negative, the $3,400 level is now a solid support, followed by the $3,370 zone, which can cap any further pullback unless intense selling pressure surfaces. FORECAST If the bullish impetus holds good, gold may try to stage a new rally towards the near-term resistance levels of $3,438–3,452. The breakout above this area would most likely trigger further buying interest, paving the way for a move towards the psychological level of $3,500 — seen in April. Any further weakness in the US Dollar, dovish Fed speak, or new geopolitical tensions may serve as major catalysts triggering this positive move. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,400 level of support could induce short-term profit-taking and drive gold back to the $3,370 region — which has since become a key support-turned-resistance. A breakdown here could herald a more pronounced corrective cycle, potentially sending the price to the $3,340 level or below. Yet ongoing uncertainty regarding Fed policy and global risk factors might serve to cushion any significant decline in the immediate future.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Rises Above $3,350 as Fed’s Dovish Shift, Sinking Dollar Fuel Demand for Bullion

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  • July 19, 2025
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Gold prices surged to above $3,350 in Friday’s North American session after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and a weakening US Dollar fueled demand for bullion. Waller’s endorsement of a possible July rate cut led the US Treasury yields down and made non-yielding instruments such as gold relatively more attractive. In contrast, the US Dollar Index declined to 98.48, making gold more attractive to foreign investors. Bullish sentiment from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, which showed weakening long-term inflation expectations, also propelled gold’s bullishness. Investors are now looking at upcoming US economic reports for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold price climbed to $3,353, buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller who supported a rate cut in July. • US Dollar Index fell to 98.48, making gold more desirable to foreign investors since it becomes less expensive in other currencies. • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, while long-term inflation expectations relaxed, reinforcing the attractiveness of gold. • US Treasury yields softened, with 10-year yield decreasing to 4.421%, further increasing demand for non-interest-paying gold. Gold prices surged above the $3,350 mark on Friday, driven by a weaker US Dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s support for a potential rate cut at the July meeting sparked a decline in US Treasury yields, which in turn lifted demand for the non-yielding metal. Adding to the positive sentiment, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated better economic optimism and a decline in long-term inflation expectations. The weaker Dollar, as evidenced by the decline in the DXY to 98.48, also made gold more attractive to foreign buyers, adding to upward pressure on the precious metal. Gold rose above $3,350 after Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments increased rate cut hopes and pushed US Treasury yields down. A softer US Dollar also underpinned gold prices, making the metal more appealing to foreign investors. •  Gold price advanced to $3,353 after dovish words from Fed Governor Christopher Waller favoring a July rate cut. •  The US Dollar Index slid to 98.48, enhancing the allure of gold for foreign investors. •  US Treasury yields fell, hence non-yielding instruments such as gold became more desirable. •  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, signaling increasing optimism in the US economy. •  Long-run inflation expectations relaxed, aiding gold’s safe-haven appeal. •   Traders have priced in 45 basis points of Fed easing by the end of the year, higher than 42 bps before. •  US economic releases, such as housing data, PMIs, and unemployment claims, next week could determine the direction of gold. Gold prices were heavily supported this week as bets for a July Fed rate cut strengthened. A dovish turn from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that inflation is decelerating and the economy can use easier monetary policy, underpinned the price. His comments assisted in altering market sentiment, raising the prospect of policy easing by year-end. This shift in belief has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly as investors want stability in a possibly falling interest rate environment. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to gold’s momentum were last week’s figures in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which indicated Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy. Long-term inflation expectations were also revised lower, signaling increasing confidence in price stability. These trends combined with a muted US Dollar have made gold a growing choice for investors seeking to hedge eventual uncertainty while maintaining capital. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is holding a bullish chart pattern at the $3,350 level, with traders looking to key resistance points. A breakout above the weekly peak of $3,377 would open the way for a move into $3,400 and possibly the June 16 high of $3,452. A subsequent breakout would set the stage for a test of the all-time high at $3,500. The downside, however, is support at $3,300, which a break below might prompt a fall to the June 30 low of $3,246, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average coming in around $3,209. FORECAST Should bullish momentum prevail, gold may break out of the near-term resistance at $3,377, clearing the way for a rise towards $3,400. A sustained move above this point would indicate robust market optimism, pushing the price to the June 16 high of $3,452. If further support comes from economic data or Fed commentary on a dovish bias, gold could challenge the psychological level of $3,500 in the near future. On the other hand, if gold cannot maintain above the $3,350 region and drops below $3,300, it may provoke an even more serious correction. The second line of support would be near $3,246, the June 30 low, then the 100-day Simple Moving Average near $3,209. A reinforcing US Dollar, hawkish Fed cues, or resilient economic reports can all induce downward pressure on the metal.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Jumps Towards $3,340 As Global Trade Tensions Rise and Safe-Haven Demand Increases

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  • July 11, 2025
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The prices of gold (XAU/USD) continued their three-day winning streak, rising to almost $3,340 levels due to renewed global trade tensions, which triggered safe-haven demand. The rise comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of significant 35% tariffs against Canada and the potential to add 15–20% duties on other countries, including the EU, has shaken world risk sentiment. Market players are thus keeping a keen eye on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June, which may further drive the direction of gold prices, particularly considering that the metal has a good track record during inflationary times. KEY LOOKOUTS • President Trump’s action to impose a 35% tariff on Canada and potential additional tariffs on the EU may heighten global trade tensions, fueling safe-haven gold demand. • The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for June will be a key gold catalyst, as elevated inflation usually buoys precious metal prices. • Gold is approaching a critical resistance around $3,500; a convincing breakout above here would send prices into new realms, with subsequent targets at $3,550 and $3,600. • On the bearish side, monitor support at $3,245; a close below here might send prices lower to $3,200 and $3,121. Gold prices have risen to near $3,340 as investors buy safe-haven assets in response to rising global trade tensions. U.S. President Trump’s 35% tariffs declaration against Canada and the potential for further duties against the European Union have unsettled market sentiment, decreasing risk appetite for riskier assets. The geopolitical risk has made gold more attractive, particularly as investors watch for influential U.S. inflation data for June. As inflation worries still persist, the coming CPI report can decisively influence gold’s movement, perhaps solidifying its upward momentum if price pressures continue. Gold prices move towards $3,340 as new U.S. tariff threats drive safe-haven demand. The markets now focus on the next U.S. CPI data, which might further drive gold’s momentum. •  Gold continues its streak, increasing for the third straight day and getting close to $3,340. •  U.S. President Trump institutes 35% tariffs on Canada, triggering global trade tensions. •  More EU tariffs are anticipated, further adding to market uncertainty. •  Safe-haven demand surges as investors flee riskier assets. • Gold nears critical technical levels, with resistance at $3,500 and support at $3,245. • June U.S. CPI data is a prime impending trigger that will determine gold’s next move. •  RSI reflects sideways movement, while a breakout or breakdown may determine short-term direction. Gold prices have gained solid traction as investors respond to escalating global trade tensions fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s most recent tariff actions. The imposition of 35% tariffs on imports from Canada, as well as threats of further tariffs on the European Union, has caused broad-based market anxiety. Consequently, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold has increased sharply, reflecting investor nervousness amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This ramp-up in gold demand is also fuelled by hopes for U.S. inflation, with markets looking intensely at the imminent publication of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics. During periods of high inflation or economic turmoil, gold is historically considered a sure thing for safekeeping. The increasing fears surrounding disrupted global trade and possible domestic cost pressures are turning gold into a desirable option for investors looking for stability in a volatile world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is hovering close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of about $3,330, indicating possible stabilization following recent advances. That said, it is still below the top line of an Ascending Triangle pattern, with the main resistance at about the $3,500 level. A decisive move above this level would set the stage for new highs, but inability to hold above support around $3,245 could initiate a pullback to $3,200 or $3,121. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, trading between 40 and 60, and this indicates the absence of strong short-term directional momentum. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions keep increasing and inflation persists, gold may breach the $3,500 psychological level. A breakout above this level, once confirmed, can trigger a healthy bullish move, possibly setting its sights on $3,550 and even $3,600 in the near future. Sustained demand for safe havens, combined with dovish central bank signals, would add strength to this upward move. Conversely, should trade tensions subside or future U.S. CPI figures indicate tempering inflation, gold can reverse recent gains. A fall below the important support level of $3,245 might unleash further losses towards $3,200 and $3,121. Even a more robust U.S. dollar or more hawkish Fed statements might exert downward pressure on gold prices.

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