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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls On US-Japan Trade Deal Optimism, Yet Fed Uncertainty Remains Bullish Hopeful

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  • July 23, 2025
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Gold prices are still in the doldrums even after a fleeting one-month high, due to optimism over a just-announced US-Japan trade agreement suppressing safe-haven buying. Despite positive global risk appetite and a small recovery in the US Dollar, anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve’s cut-rate trajectory and its autonomy remains supportive. Traders are waiting, however, for leading US housing figures and global PMI prints for further guidance. Technically, recent advances above the $3,400 mark indicate bull momentum is still in place, although further consolidation is likely to be seen close to important resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hopes for the US-Japan trade deal continue to drive risk sentiment higher, lowering demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates and fears regarding its autonomy are weakening the US Dollar, lending some support to gold prices. • Gold’s short-term support is at around $3,400, with resistance established around $3,438–3,452. A breakout above would pave the way for retracing the all-time high of $3,500. • Market players are looking at US Existing Home Sales and world flash PMIs for guidance on economic resilience and possible direction in the XAU/USD currency pair. Gold prices are muted as a positive backdrop to the US-Japan trade agreement continues to improve global risk appetite, making safe-haven assets less attractive. In spite of this, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and whether it can maintain its independence remain supportive of the precious metal. Though the US Dollar displays signs of a modest revamp, its general weakness in the face of diverging economic indicators restricts gold’s downside. The traders now wait for crucial data releases such as US Existing Home Sales and world PMIs for new cues that may have an impact on the subsequent directional movement in the XAU/USD pair. Gold price is still in pressure due to positive sentiment from the US-Japan trade agreement lowering safe-haven demand. Uncertainty over the Fed rate-cut trajectory and a weaker US Dollar, however, continue to provide support. Market players now look to crucial economic data for new directional signals. • Gold price fell after reaching a one-month high during the Asian session, dragged down by better risk appetite. • US-Japan trade deal hopes have improved sentiment, lowering demand for havens such as gold. • US Dollar registers a small rebound from two-week lows, imposing pressure on gold in early trading. • Fears about the independence of the Fed and rate-cutting uncertainty are limiting aggressive gains in USD, supporting gold. • Technical breakout above $3,400 indicates underlying bullish momentum in spite of intraday pullbacks. • Resistance is immediate at $3,438–3,452, with scope for a push toward the $3,500 all-time high should it break. • Market participants look to upcoming US housing data as well as global PMIs for new market direction and sentiment guidance. Gold prices continue to come under pressure following the announcement of a wide-ranging US-Japan trade agreement, with the deal, including mutual tariffs and increased market access for major industries like autos and agriculture, having allayed investor concerns and diverted attention from safe-haven assets like gold. The change in sentiment is indicative of increasing enthusiasm regarding global trade stability and calls for investors to explore higher-risk opportunities. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The political tensions in the United States, however, continue to affect market dynamics. President Trump’s frequent demands for reduced interest rates and attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had rekindled fears over the independence of the central bank. The uncertainty further increases with the pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for an internal review of the Fed. All these advances have kept the US Dollar subdued, providing some underlying support to gold in spite of the brightening global atmosphere. Market players now seek shelter in key economic indicators to get further details on the overall outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently broke above the important horizontal resistance at $3,370 and passed the psychological $3,400 marker, which pointed towards bullish strength. Daily chart oscillators are still positive and bear no signs of overboughtness, which implies the possibility of further gains. The nearest resistance is located at $3,438–3,452, with a continuation past that likely setting the stage for the all-time high at $3,500. On the negative, the $3,400 level is now a solid support, followed by the $3,370 zone, which can cap any further pullback unless intense selling pressure surfaces. FORECAST If the bullish impetus holds good, gold may try to stage a new rally towards the near-term resistance levels of $3,438–3,452. The breakout above this area would most likely trigger further buying interest, paving the way for a move towards the psychological level of $3,500 — seen in April. Any further weakness in the US Dollar, dovish Fed speak, or new geopolitical tensions may serve as major catalysts triggering this positive move. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,400 level of support could induce short-term profit-taking and drive gold back to the $3,370 region — which has since become a key support-turned-resistance. A breakdown here could herald a more pronounced corrective cycle, potentially sending the price to the $3,340 level or below. Yet ongoing uncertainty regarding Fed policy and global risk factors might serve to cushion any significant decline in the immediate future.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Rises Above $3,350 as Fed’s Dovish Shift, Sinking Dollar Fuel Demand for Bullion

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  • July 19, 2025
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Gold prices surged to above $3,350 in Friday’s North American session after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and a weakening US Dollar fueled demand for bullion. Waller’s endorsement of a possible July rate cut led the US Treasury yields down and made non-yielding instruments such as gold relatively more attractive. In contrast, the US Dollar Index declined to 98.48, making gold more attractive to foreign investors. Bullish sentiment from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, which showed weakening long-term inflation expectations, also propelled gold’s bullishness. Investors are now looking at upcoming US economic reports for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold price climbed to $3,353, buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller who supported a rate cut in July. • US Dollar Index fell to 98.48, making gold more desirable to foreign investors since it becomes less expensive in other currencies. • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, while long-term inflation expectations relaxed, reinforcing the attractiveness of gold. • US Treasury yields softened, with 10-year yield decreasing to 4.421%, further increasing demand for non-interest-paying gold. Gold prices surged above the $3,350 mark on Friday, driven by a weaker US Dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s support for a potential rate cut at the July meeting sparked a decline in US Treasury yields, which in turn lifted demand for the non-yielding metal. Adding to the positive sentiment, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated better economic optimism and a decline in long-term inflation expectations. The weaker Dollar, as evidenced by the decline in the DXY to 98.48, also made gold more attractive to foreign buyers, adding to upward pressure on the precious metal. Gold rose above $3,350 after Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments increased rate cut hopes and pushed US Treasury yields down. A softer US Dollar also underpinned gold prices, making the metal more appealing to foreign investors. •  Gold price advanced to $3,353 after dovish words from Fed Governor Christopher Waller favoring a July rate cut. •  The US Dollar Index slid to 98.48, enhancing the allure of gold for foreign investors. •  US Treasury yields fell, hence non-yielding instruments such as gold became more desirable. •  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, signaling increasing optimism in the US economy. •  Long-run inflation expectations relaxed, aiding gold’s safe-haven appeal. •   Traders have priced in 45 basis points of Fed easing by the end of the year, higher than 42 bps before. •  US economic releases, such as housing data, PMIs, and unemployment claims, next week could determine the direction of gold. Gold prices were heavily supported this week as bets for a July Fed rate cut strengthened. A dovish turn from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that inflation is decelerating and the economy can use easier monetary policy, underpinned the price. His comments assisted in altering market sentiment, raising the prospect of policy easing by year-end. This shift in belief has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly as investors want stability in a possibly falling interest rate environment. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to gold’s momentum were last week’s figures in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which indicated Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy. Long-term inflation expectations were also revised lower, signaling increasing confidence in price stability. These trends combined with a muted US Dollar have made gold a growing choice for investors seeking to hedge eventual uncertainty while maintaining capital. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is holding a bullish chart pattern at the $3,350 level, with traders looking to key resistance points. A breakout above the weekly peak of $3,377 would open the way for a move into $3,400 and possibly the June 16 high of $3,452. A subsequent breakout would set the stage for a test of the all-time high at $3,500. The downside, however, is support at $3,300, which a break below might prompt a fall to the June 30 low of $3,246, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average coming in around $3,209. FORECAST Should bullish momentum prevail, gold may break out of the near-term resistance at $3,377, clearing the way for a rise towards $3,400. A sustained move above this point would indicate robust market optimism, pushing the price to the June 16 high of $3,452. If further support comes from economic data or Fed commentary on a dovish bias, gold could challenge the psychological level of $3,500 in the near future. On the other hand, if gold cannot maintain above the $3,350 region and drops below $3,300, it may provoke an even more serious correction. The second line of support would be near $3,246, the June 30 low, then the 100-day Simple Moving Average near $3,209. A reinforcing US Dollar, hawkish Fed cues, or resilient economic reports can all induce downward pressure on the metal.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Jumps Towards $3,340 As Global Trade Tensions Rise and Safe-Haven Demand Increases

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  • July 11, 2025
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The prices of gold (XAU/USD) continued their three-day winning streak, rising to almost $3,340 levels due to renewed global trade tensions, which triggered safe-haven demand. The rise comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of significant 35% tariffs against Canada and the potential to add 15–20% duties on other countries, including the EU, has shaken world risk sentiment. Market players are thus keeping a keen eye on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in June, which may further drive the direction of gold prices, particularly considering that the metal has a good track record during inflationary times. KEY LOOKOUTS • President Trump’s action to impose a 35% tariff on Canada and potential additional tariffs on the EU may heighten global trade tensions, fueling safe-haven gold demand. • The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for June will be a key gold catalyst, as elevated inflation usually buoys precious metal prices. • Gold is approaching a critical resistance around $3,500; a convincing breakout above here would send prices into new realms, with subsequent targets at $3,550 and $3,600. • On the bearish side, monitor support at $3,245; a close below here might send prices lower to $3,200 and $3,121. Gold prices have risen to near $3,340 as investors buy safe-haven assets in response to rising global trade tensions. U.S. President Trump’s 35% tariffs declaration against Canada and the potential for further duties against the European Union have unsettled market sentiment, decreasing risk appetite for riskier assets. The geopolitical risk has made gold more attractive, particularly as investors watch for influential U.S. inflation data for June. As inflation worries still persist, the coming CPI report can decisively influence gold’s movement, perhaps solidifying its upward momentum if price pressures continue. Gold prices move towards $3,340 as new U.S. tariff threats drive safe-haven demand. The markets now focus on the next U.S. CPI data, which might further drive gold’s momentum. •  Gold continues its streak, increasing for the third straight day and getting close to $3,340. •  U.S. President Trump institutes 35% tariffs on Canada, triggering global trade tensions. •  More EU tariffs are anticipated, further adding to market uncertainty. •  Safe-haven demand surges as investors flee riskier assets. • Gold nears critical technical levels, with resistance at $3,500 and support at $3,245. • June U.S. CPI data is a prime impending trigger that will determine gold’s next move. •  RSI reflects sideways movement, while a breakout or breakdown may determine short-term direction. Gold prices have gained solid traction as investors respond to escalating global trade tensions fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s most recent tariff actions. The imposition of 35% tariffs on imports from Canada, as well as threats of further tariffs on the European Union, has caused broad-based market anxiety. Consequently, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold has increased sharply, reflecting investor nervousness amid rising geopolitical and economic risks. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This ramp-up in gold demand is also fuelled by hopes for U.S. inflation, with markets looking intensely at the imminent publication of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics. During periods of high inflation or economic turmoil, gold is historically considered a sure thing for safekeeping. The increasing fears surrounding disrupted global trade and possible domestic cost pressures are turning gold into a desirable option for investors looking for stability in a volatile world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is hovering close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of about $3,330, indicating possible stabilization following recent advances. That said, it is still below the top line of an Ascending Triangle pattern, with the main resistance at about the $3,500 level. A decisive move above this level would set the stage for new highs, but inability to hold above support around $3,245 could initiate a pullback to $3,200 or $3,121. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, trading between 40 and 60, and this indicates the absence of strong short-term directional momentum. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions keep increasing and inflation persists, gold may breach the $3,500 psychological level. A breakout above this level, once confirmed, can trigger a healthy bullish move, possibly setting its sights on $3,550 and even $3,600 in the near future. Sustained demand for safe havens, combined with dovish central bank signals, would add strength to this upward move. Conversely, should trade tensions subside or future U.S. CPI figures indicate tempering inflation, gold can reverse recent gains. A fall below the important support level of $3,245 might unleash further losses towards $3,200 and $3,121. Even a more robust U.S. dollar or more hawkish Fed statements might exert downward pressure on gold prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stands Firm with Trade Uncertainty and Divided Fed Cues

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  • July 10, 2025
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Gold prices maintain a firm bias for the second day running on the back of safe-haven demand due to rising trade tensions and a weakened US Dollar. Even as risk aversion is heightened by uncertainty about President Trump’s recent tariff policies, divided cues from the Federal Reserve on further rate cuts leave investors hesitant. The release of the FOMC minutes showed limited immediate support for a rate cut, capping gold’s upside despite falling US bond yields. As markets await US jobless claims data and further comments from Fed officials, gold remains range-bound near the $3,320 mark, with key resistance and support levels in focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key short-term trigger that could influence Fed rate cut expectations and Gold’s direction. • Any dovish or hawkish language would affect market sentiment surrounding interest rates and the USD. • Ongoing USD weakness and falling Treasury yields might be bullish for gold prices. • Reactions to Trump’s fresh tariffs and any retaliation will be a primary driver of safe-haven flows. Gold prices are holding up near $3,320 as investors grapple with a blend of global trade tensions and ambiguous Fed policy indications. President Trump’s most recent tariff announcements, such as a 50% tariff on copper imports, have further fueled market anxiety, pushing safe-haven flows into gold. The Fed’s meeting minutes meanwhile showed the policymakers were divided in their stance on rate cuts this month, although most policymakers continue to foresee easing later this year. This volatility, complemented by declining US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar, still provides underlying support to the non-yielding metal despite upside being capped by better risk sentiment in the equities. Gold prices are supported by increasing trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar, trading firmly around $3,320. Yet, dovish Fed signals and firmer equities are capping further gains. US jobless claims and Fed commentary are now awaited for direction. • Gold trades at $3,320 with a small intraday gain for the second consecutive day. • Trade tensions rise following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and warning of no exemptions or extensions. • Mixed opinions about rate cuts in FOMC minutes, with minimal near-term support but anticipation of easing towards year-end. • US Dollar again weakens for the second straight day, supporting Gold’s safe-haven status. • US bond yields fall, following the strong 10-year Treasury auction, underpinning non-yielding assets such as Gold. • Technical resistance at $3,335 and $3,360; breaking through could take Gold up to the $3,400 level. •  Key data ahead includes US Weekly Jobless Claims and Fed speeches, which could drive short-term market direction. Gold continues under the spotlight as international financial markets respond to heightened trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The latest action from US President Donald Trump to introduce new tariffs on various trading partners, including a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, has created uncertainty among investors. This geopolitical tension has rekindled demand for classic safe-haven assets such as gold, with market players seeking stability in the face of growing policy uncertainty and the possibility of retaliation from impacted countries. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes reflect intramural discord, as some policymakers are not keen to reduce interest rates in the near future. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement that rate reductions might be necessary later in the year if inflation remains benign and trade tensions suppress economic growth. These themes, together with a deteriorating US Dollar and risk-averse sentiment, continue to provide a bullish environment for gold in the larger market context. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains at the $3,320 level with a marginal bullish bias. Initial resistance is at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3,335, followed by a stronger zone of supply between $3,358 and $3,360. A forceful breakout above this area might initiate more bullish pressure, perhaps driving prices towards the $3,400 psychological mark. To the downside, a break below the support at $3,300 might reveal the $3,283–3,282 area, with additional losses risking a descent towards the monthly low at $3,248–3,247. Generally, traders need to look out for a definitive breakout or breakdown from these decisive technical levels for affirmation of the next move. FORECAST If geopolitical tension continues to spike and the US Dollar stays pressured, gold prices may witness fresh buying interest. A breakout above the $3,335 resistance level would set the stage for a move towards the $3,358–3,360 supply zone. Sizing through this barrier may initiate a short-covering rally, which has the potential to drive prices towards the $3,400 psychological level in the near future, provided that forward US economic data or Fed rhetoric aids the rate-cutting case. On the other hand, if the US is not able to negotiate trade deals by the August 1 tariff deadline, worldwide trade tensions could rise aggressively, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar. Also, if near-term UK economic releases are disappointing or worry over rising national debt and geopolitical tensions picks up pace, the GBP could be underpinned. A breakdown below the 1.3500 psychological support level may result in additional declines towards the next major point at 1.3400.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Holds Above $3,300 Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty

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  • July 8, 2025
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Gold prices remain resilient above the $3,300 level amid a complex mix of global economic and political factors. While diminishing hopes for a July Fed rate cut and Trump’s renewed tariff threats exert downward pressure, ongoing concerns over US fiscal stability and rising global risk aversion continue to support safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. US Dollar volatility contributes to the uncertainty, with gold prices stuck in a trading range until the more definitive indications from the FOMC meeting minutes ahead. There were no major economic data releases and market sentiment is being shaped predominantly by geopolitical events and US monetary policy expectations. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The issuance of tariff deadline extensions and aggressive threats against BRICS-aligned countries are intensifying concerns of international trade disruption, weighing on market sentiment. • Increasing expectations of sustained high interest rates based on expected inflation from tariffs are dampening gold’s potential upside. • As the USD reached a two-week high, fiscal worries and risk aversion are limiting further advances, providing minimal support for gold prices. • Resistance at $3,347–$3,360 and support at $3,295–$3,270 are key levels to watch for traders as gold looks for direction in a muddled fundamental environment. Gold prices are under modest pressure but stay firm above the $3,300 level as markets absorb mixed signals on the global and domestic fronts. The fading prospects of a July Fed rate cut due to inflation fears fueled by Trump’s brash tariff policy is limiting the non-yielding metal’s upside momentum. Yet safe-haven demand remains as a result of mounting geopolitical tensions, doubt over US fiscal health, and widespread risk aversion across global equity markets. Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar acts to offset gold’s losses, with market players now looking to the coming FOMC meeting minutes for clearer direction on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Gold price lingers near $3,300 as markets balance ebbing Fed rate-cut hopes against increasing global risk aversion. Tariff threats by Trump and a tempered US Dollar cap losses, holding gold firm in advance of key FOMC minutes. •  Gold holds above $3,300 despite small intraday declines, buoyed by safe-haven demand. •  Ebbing hopes for a July Fed rate cut weigh on the non-yielding metal due to inflation worries. •  Trump’s prolonged tariff threats against BRICS-aligned countries increase global economic insecurity. •  The US Dollar hit a two-week peak but finds it difficult to rise further on fiscal and trade-related concerns. •  Insufficient aggressive bearish bets on gold indicate investors remain cautious amid conflicting market cues. •  Technical resistance around $3,347–$3,360 caps upside, whereas support at $3,295–$3,270 remains pivotal. • Market attention turns to FOMC minutes for more precise guidance on the Fed’s next rate trajectory and USD direction. Gold prices are stable above the $3,300 level as investors remain conservative in light of increasing global uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s return to threats to impose higher tariffs—particularly on nations aligning with BRICS—has renewed apprehension regarding global trade disruptions and inflation. This change in trade policy has not just shaken market sentiment but also made it more difficult for the Federal Reserve’s strategy, as policymakers might now be required to hold higher interest rates for a longer period than expected to suppress inflationary pressures. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, the US Dollar has also indicated strength but is held back by perceptions related to the fiscal health of the country and the general impact on the economy of tariff hikes. The dearth of specific economic data during the early part of the week has kept markets focused on wider geopolitical events and future policy guidance from the Federal Reserve. Here, gold is still taking advantage of its safe-haven demand, as global equities are experiencing distress and investor sentiment remaining weak. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is running into resistance at the $3,347-$3,348 level, which is around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A continued advance beyond this level may trigger short-covering and send prices to the $3,360 supply zone, with a break-out opening up the psychological $3,400 mark. To the downside, near-term support is in the $3,300–$3,295 area, which has thus far managed to cap further declines. A firm fall through this level may fan selling pressure, leading the metal to the next major support at $3,270, and even lower down to June’s low around $3,247. FORECAST If gold can clear the near-term resistance at $3,348 and hold on for more than the $3,360 supply zone, it may signal a bullish breakout. This could draw in new buying interest, creating a short-term rally toward the $3,400 psychological level. Ongoing global risk aversion, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or any dovish comments from the upcoming FOMC minutes could further fuel the upside path for gold. On the other hand, if gold is unable to sustain the $3,300–$3,295 support level, it can expect to come under more selling pressure. A firm break below the range can pave the way to the $3,270 support level, and more losses can bring the price down to the June swing low of approximately $3,247. A stronger US Dollar, hardline Fed perspective, or decline in global tensions can serve as triggers for this bearish move.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Sparkles at $3,330 as Trade War Uncertainties and Weaker USD Increase Safe-Haven Buying

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  • July 5, 2025
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Gold prices remain in the spotlight, trading above $3,330 and heading for a more than 1.5% weekly increase, as an escalation of global trade tensions and a softer US Dollar increase safe-haven buying. US President Trump’s announcement of tariffs between 10% and 70% to kick in on August 1 has increased market wariness, and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks regarding potential retaliatory tariffs in 100 countries further fueled uncertainty. Strong US labor fundamentals and stiff Treasury yields notwithstanding, expectations of a Federal Reserve pause in interest rates are sustaining bearish optimism. Investors are waiting with bated breath for future FOMC minutes and jobless claims releases for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders await the effect of Trump’s suggested 10% to 70% tariffs and their effect on global trade and safe-haven investments such as gold. • As there is decent labor data and consistent yields, traders are waiting for hints in future FOMC meeting minutes on any likely rate actions. • Declining US Dollar in the face of growing national debt and conservative Fed rhetoric may continue to buoy gold prices. • The key resistance remains at $3,400 and $3,452, while a break below $3,300 may pave the way towards $3,246 or even $3,120. Gold is holding firm above $3,330, rising more than 1.5% this week as investors move towards safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and fears of trade wars. The revelation of possible US tariffs of 10% to 70%, to be rolled out on August 1, triggered fears of the strain on world economies, further damaging the US Dollar and supporting bullion demand. Though robust US labor statistics and solid Treasury yields will constrain upside potential, hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve policy are sustaining gold’s rally. Traders now anticipate FOMC minutes and jobless claims for better hints at monetary policy. Gold prices creep up past $3,330 with trade war concerns and a weakening US Dollar driving safe-haven demand. Investors will be waiting for important Fed cues next week, with FOMC minutes and jobless claims being watched. • Gold is trading above $3,330, more than 1.5% higher for the week, on safe-haven demand. • Trump imposes tariffs of 10% to 70%, starting August 1, raising specter of trade war. • US Treasury Secretary expects retaliatory tariffs from about 100 nations. • US Dollar drops under pressure from surging national debt and policy uncertainty. • US labor market remains resilient, but private sector hiring weakens in face of economic prudence. • Gold’s rally limited by solid US Treasury yields, with the 10-year at 4.338%. • Technical levels to monitor: Resistance at $3,400/$3,452, support at $3,300/$3,246. Gold is picking up steam as investors flock to the yellow metal for safe haven as geopolitical and economic tensions grow. Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of future tariffs between 10% and 70% on various nations has set the markets in a state of panic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that almost 100 nations were potentially in the crosshairs for reciprocal tariffs, which has heightened fears over global trade disruptions. These events have boosted demand for gold, a classic safe-haven investment, particularly as market players prepare for possible ripple effects on economies. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the trade tensions, political events and fiscal issues in the US are contributing to the allure of gold. The suggested extension of the 2017 tax reductions through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit, which could weaken the US Dollar in the long run. At the same time, geopolitical discussions—like Trump’s recent talks with Russia and Ukraine leaders—show that there is still instability, driving investors deeper into assets such as gold. As markets are taking in these wider risks, gold continues to reap the rewards of acting as a hedge against uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still consolidating above the pivotal $3,300 support level, and momentum gauges such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are holding near the middle ground, hinting at a slowdown in bull runs. Gold has not broken out above its last cycle high of $3,452, which implies that the buyers are going to require stronger drivers to turn the prices higher. A breakout above $3,400 and $3,452 would confirm renewed bullish strength, targeting the all-time high near $3,500. On the downside, sustained weakness below $3,300 could open the door for a pullback toward $3,246, a critical level for maintaining the broader uptrend. FORECAST If the geopolitical tensions rise further and the US Dollar stays weak, gold may return to strong bullish momentum. A clear break above the $3,400 level would most probably attract more buyers, with the subsequent target lying at $3,452—the former cycle high. Breaking above this resistance area might move prices towards the psychological benchmark of $3,500, particularly if the Federal Reserve sticks to a dovish policy or economic uncertainty accelerates. On the other hand, if US data remains to be resilient—specifically in labor markets and inflation—and Treasury yields continue to advance, gold can come under selling pressure. A break below the $3,300 support level might initiate a more profound correction down to $3,246. If this support level also breaks, further losses might result in a test of the $3,120 area where buyers might re-enter to protect the longer-term bullish trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Poised for First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks on US Fiscal Jitters and Trade Uncertainty

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  • July 4, 2025
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Gold price is set to record its first weekly gain in three weeks, boosted by US fiscal jitters and revived trade uncertainty. Despite a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report that reduced hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, the US Dollar struggled to sustain gains amid rising fears over the country’s long-term debt trajectory following President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. Additionally, upcoming tariff changes and holiday-thinned trading conditions are keeping market participants cautious, yet the underlying safe-haven demand continues to support the precious metal, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising fears over long-term debt due to President Trump’s tax and spending bill are weighing on the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven demand for Gold. • A more-than-anticipated NFP reading has dulled near-term rate cut expectations, but softer wage growth leaves the door open for policy relaxation in the latter part of the year. • Gold price is battling a critical resistance level around the $3,352–$3,355 levels; a convincing break above may spark additional gains towards $3,400. • With US markets being shut on Independence Day, low trading volumes can induce volatility and risk aversion among XAU/USD traders. Gold price stays strong as it targets its first weekly advance in three weeks, supported by rising US fiscal tensions and ongoing trade-related volatilities. While the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls report briefly boosted the US Dollar and cooled speculation of an imminent Fed rate cut, the signing into law of President Trump’s tax-reduction and spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion to national debt, has lifted longer-term economic worries, topping USD gains. Combined with imminent tariff realignments and holiday-thinned market liquidity, these demand drivers still provide support to Gold safe-haven demand and maintain its near-term outlook biased to the upside. Gold price remains robust, underpinned by US fiscal worries and trade uncertainty even in the face of more-than-expected jobs data. Holiday-thinned market liquidity and the proximity of resistance to the 100-SMA may suppress the upside but overall remain bullish. • Gold is set to end a two-week losing streak, which will reflect renewed bullish momentum. • Fears surrounding President Trump’s spending bill and its $3.4 trillion debt burden are putting pressure on the US Dollar. • Stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data cut short-term Fed rate cut speculation but failed to fully bolster the Dollar. • Lower wage growth tempered inflation concerns, keeping hopes high for easing Fed policy in the future. • Gold finds it difficult to move past the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart at $3,352–$3,355, a pivotal zone. • US Independence Day has trimmed market liquidity, and traders are being cautious. • Continued trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to fuel demand for Gold. Gold is poised to break its two-week losing spree, underpinned by a favorable fundamental environment fueled by increasing fiscal worries in the United States and continued worldwide trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s huge tax-cut and spending bill’s approval has sent alarm bells ringing about the nation’s long-term debt horizon, shattering the US Dollar and causing an uptick in demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. Also, uncertainty over planned tariff increases has further boosted investor appetite for Gold, with markets getting ready for prospective trade disruptions before the July 9 deadline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figure temporarily supported the US Dollar earlier by suppressing short-term Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Slower wage gains in the same release, though, smoothed out inflation worries, and left the window open for potential later-year monetary easing. With US markets shut on Independence Day, trading has been subdued but the underlying drivers still support a bullish sentiment in Gold as investors flock towards it for safety against increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is finding it difficult to clear the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which is behaving as a good resistance around the $3,352–$3,355 level. A breakdown past this level may set the stage for an extended rally to the $3,366 area and, possibly, the $3,400 psychological level. To the downside, near-term support comes in around the $3,326–$3,325 area, followed by more robust support at $3,311 and $3,300. A collapse below these levels may turn the tide in the bears’ direction, threatening to expose the $3,270 support zone and even the monthly low of $3,248 if the pressure from the bears mounts. FORECAST If Gold price is able to break and hold above the 100-period SMA in the vicinity of $3,355, it may create fresh bullish momentum. This will most probably pave the way for a move towards the next resistance at $3,366, followed by the psychological hurdle of $3,400. A long-term rally above these levels with a weak US Dollar and safe-haven demand could further push the price towards $3,420 in the short term. Conversely, a failure to breach the 100-SMA resistance can draw Gold back towards the immediate support level at $3,325. Breaking through this area can invite additional selling pressure, taking Gold down to $3,311 and further to the key $3,300 level. If selling momentum gathers pace, the fall can go as far as the $3,270 level, with a possible retest of the monthly low around $3,248.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Increases and Geopolitical Trade Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 1, 2025
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Gold prices are moving higher, reaching a three-day high of around $3,333 on increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased geopolitical trade uncertainties. The US Dollar dipped to its lowest point since February 2022, as the downwardly pressured economic data, fears of a widening fiscal deficit, and Trump’s hawkish trade approach before the July 9 tariff expiration day weighed. Safe-haven interest in gold is also underpinned by political tensions and volatility around key US macroeconomic events during the week, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and highly expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are factoring in a 74% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, with scope for easing as early as July, which continues to sustain gold prices. •  The USD has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 on the back of growing fiscal worries and dovish expectations of monetary policy. •  Trump’s latest tariff threat on several nations may ignite safe-haven buying and push gold even higher. •  Major releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be keenly observed for new direction in USD and gold price movements. Gold prices are still rising as investors react to increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global trade tensions. The weakening US Dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, reflects market concerns over the Fed’s potential policy easing and the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold are uncertainties surrounding former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, with the July 9 deadline looming. Traders also look toward critical US economic reports this week—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Nonfarm Payrolls report—that may continue to impact gold’s near-term trend. Gold prices rise with Fed rate cut expectations and trade uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand. A softer US Dollar and threatened tariffs by Trump further bolster the bullish case. Traders now look to critical US data, including the NFP report, for additional guidance. • Gold prices increase for the second day in a row, hitting approximately $3,333 on the back of firm safe-haven demand. • Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut before September increase gold and push the US Dollar down. • The USD declines to its lowest level since February 2022 as a result of fiscal worries and poor economic data. • Trump’s fresh trade warnings prior to the July 9 deadline contribute to global uncertainty and underpin gold. • US Treasury Secretary hints at potential tariff increases from 11% to 50%, reinforcing market conservativeness. • Market participants are looking for important US macroeconomic releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and NFP. • Technical resistance is around $3,350–$3,370 and major support is at $3,245–$3,200. Gold remains a focus for investors as world markets respond to a combination of economic and political events. Increasing bets the Federal Reserve will follow quickly with rate cuts in coming weeks have reduced the US Dollar, boosting the allure of gold as a non-yielding haven asset. In the meantime, recent indicators of shrinking consumer spending and worries about a growing federal deficit are putting further pressure on the central bank to step in, supporting the market’s dovish bias. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a significant part in favoring gold. Former President Donald Trump has intensified his trade rhetoric, threatening higher tariffs on nations that don’t seal agreements before the July 9 deadline. Those threats and the prospect of rising trade tensions have contributed to investor wariness. As markets expect major US economic releases this week, gold is preferred by traders who want stability in the face of economic and policy-related uncertainties. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is depicting a consistent bullish inclination while it is trading close to a three-day high level of $3,333. The nearest resistance can be seen in the $3,324–$3,325 range, a breakout above which might pave the way for additional upsides towards the $3,350 and $3,370 levels. Long-term strength above these levels can push the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, initial support comes at $3,300, followed by stronger support around $3,276 and $3,245. A fall below these levels may switch momentum back in the favor of the bears and reveal the $3,210–$3,200 zone. FORECAST Gold could pierce near-term resistance at the $3,325 level and target the next significant barrier at $3,350. A clear breach above this level could set the stage for the $3,370 area, and eventually, the psychological $3,400 threshold. Sustained dollar weakness, added assurance on Fed rate cut expectations, and growing worldwide trade tensions would more than likely drive further rises in gold prices. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,300 support level may invite a bearish pullback, revealing the $3,276 and $3,245 levels. A break below these supports might speed up the fall towards the $3,210–$3,200 range. Further downside risk might emerge if future US macroeconomic indicators surprise to the upside, alleviating pressure on the Fed and bolstering the US Dollar, hence diminishing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

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  • June 27, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Above $3,300 on Fed Uncertainty and Tenuous Israel-Iran Ceasefire

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  • June 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) enjoys a modest intraday bullish bias, trading well above the $3,300 level on mixed market directions. Although expectations for impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts keep the US Dollar in check and provide support to the non-yielding metal, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a generally upbeat risk sentiment cap strong upside strength. Lack of confidence in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire introduces a geopolitical risk premium that underlies gold’s safe-haven status. Market participants now look to major US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, jobless claims, and the PCE Price Index, which can offer further guidance for the USD and prices of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • At least 50 bps of Fed rate reductions by year-end are being priced in by markets, with attention on whether July will see a move and the testimony by Powell for additional indications. • Ongoing anxiety regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire and looming concerns about renewed hostilities are continuing to fuel gold’s safe-haven demand. • Traders look to Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the PCE Price Index later this week, potentially altering Fed expectations and affecting USD and gold. • Strong support at around $3,300 with scope for downside towards $3,245 if broken; upside limited near $3,370–$3,400 unless robust bullish momentum is seen. Gold price stays firm above the $3,300 level on Wednesday, buoyed by subdued US Dollar sentiment and persisting geopolitical volatility around the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Although the precious metal is buoyed by safe-haven buying and anticipations of rate cuts by the Fed this year, dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have cooled bullish enthusiasm. Investors seem guarded before critical US macroeconomic releases, such as GDP numbers and the PCE Price Index, which may determine forthcoming Fed policy and, therefore, affect gold’s short-term direction. Gold price remains above $3,300 despite conflicting signals from Fed rhetoric and geopolitical tensions. Soft USD and tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in place to underpin safe-haven demand for the metal. Bulls remain on hold pending crucial US data releases that will determine the direction in Fed policy and gold pricing. •  Markets expect at least 50 bps of rate cuts by end of year, keeping the USD on back foot. •  Additional information from the Fed Chair will provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy direction. •  The major releases such as Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and PCE Index will have an impact on sentiment. •  Any escalation in tensions may push gold demand towards safe-haven. •  Gold’s direction is still very much dependent on USD weakness or strength. •  Keep an eye on price action in the $3,300 support and $3,370–$3,400 resistance areas. • Short-term gold price direction will be influenced by equity market trends and geopolitical announcements. Gold price remains in a modestly bullish stance, underpinned by increasing market optimism that the Federal Reserve can start its rate-cutting journey towards the end of this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s comments in recent times presaged a subtle move towards easing policy, yet investors are still eyeing the general economic context, which indicates decelerating inflation and weakening labor markets. This kindles hopes of policy accommodation, which usually helps non-yielding assets such as gold. Uncertainty in global markets also preserves the safe-haven credentials of gold despite overall sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events also prove instrumental in sustaining support for gold. Although a formal ceasefire has been observed between Israel and Iran, recent cross-border military operations by both nations have thrown its longevity into doubt. The tensions are a promoter of a risk-averse environment, pushing investors to hold on to safe-haven assets. In the meantime, some expectation is building for major US economic data releases this week, which may have implications both for the Federal Reserve’s positioning and subsequent market action. Therefore, gold is still in the spotlight as traders weigh interest rate expectations against continuing geopolitical threats. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price has recently broken below a short-term rising channel, confirming the potential for a change in momentum to the downside. Oscillators on the daily and 4-hourly charts are gaining bearish momentum, reflecting increasing pressure from the bears. The level of major resistance is now close to the $3,368–$3,370 area, which was earlier acting as channel support. Unless bulls overcome this level with strength, any rallies can be met with selling. On the bearish side, a clear break below the $3,300 level can pave the way for fall towards the $3,245–$3,210 support level. FORECAST If the geopolitics further deteriorate or if future US macroeconomic indicators continue to support the expectation of a near-term Fed rate cut, gold may regain positive bullish traction. A follow-through above the $3,370 resistance band could trigger new buying interest, prompting the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. Additional strength above this level may set the stage for a test of the $3,420–$3,450 region, particularly if the US Dollar further depreciates. Conversely, if the ceasefire in Israel-Iran persists and future US economic releases are stronger than anticipated, it might reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. If the price breaks below the support level of $3,300, it would be a bearish indicator and might result in a fall to $3,245. Sustained selling pressure can continue the decline even lower to the $3,210–$3,200 level, while further losses can be envisaged if the US Dollar gains traction or Fed rate cut expectations are diminished.

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