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Gold Under Pressure: Dollar Strength and Profit-Taking Weigh, Fed Uncertainty Provides Cushion

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  • August 27, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is selling off in Wednesday’s early European trading session, giving back a two-week high of $3,395 as dollar strength and profit-taking pressure the metal. Nevertheless, doubts regarding the independence of the US Federal Reserve, sparked by the bid to oust a Fed governor from former President Donald Trump, give the metal underlying support as investors look for safe havens. Traders currently look to Friday’s US July PCE inflation reading for new direction, with warmer-than-expected numbers set to restrict the Fed’s space for cutting rates. In addition, geopolitical tensions, most notably from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are also dominant drivers of short-term gold price action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Profit-taking and firmer US Dollar are weighing on Gold below its recent two-week peak. • Fed independence fears as Trump tries to remove a governor are underpinning safe-haven demand. • US July PCE inflation reading on Friday may set the tone for Fed’s rate-reduction trajectory. • Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, could spur new volatility in Gold prices. Gold prices declined during initial European trading on Wednesday amid profit-taking and a small recovery in the US Dollar, which dragged the metal lower from a two-week high. Even this pullback has not dissuaded worries about the independence of the US Federal Reserve after former President Donald Trump’s bid to oust a Fed governor. Investors now focus on Friday’s US July PCE inflation report, which is seen to shape the Fed policy perspective and might determine Gold’s next direction. Also, persisting geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine war, remain a major driver for market sentiment of the yellow metal. Gold recedes from two-week peak as profit-taking and US Dollar strength hamper prices. Nonetheless, Fed independence fears and geopolitical tensions continue to offer safe-haven support prior to the US July PCE inflation report. • Gold pulls back from a two-week peak of $3,395 as profit-taking and US Dollar strength bear down on prices. • Worry about the independence of the US Federal Reserve helps to underpin safe-haven demand for Gold. • Donald Trump’s attempts to oust a Fed governor have injected political uncertainty. • The US July PCE inflation report, expected at 2.6% YoY headline and 2.9% core, is awaited by traders. • A more-than-anticipated PCE print would cap the Fed’s rate-cutting ability in September. • Geopolitics, more so the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, continue to be major drivers of Gold sentiment. • Despite near-term sell-offs, Gold remains in a bullish longer-term tone underpinned by safe-haven demand. Gold is now walking a fine line as global market sentiment continues to be driven by both political and economic events. A stronger US Dollar and profit-taking have put pressure on it, yet safe-haven demand still supports the yellow metal. Political uncertainty has increased after Donald Trump’s actions against a Fed governor, raising doubts about the independence of the US Federal Reserve, prompting investors to turn to gold as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, investors are watching closely for coming economic statistics, specifically the US July PCE inflation reading, which will set the tone for monetary policy expectations. Aside from economic metrics, geopolitics such as the Russia-Ukraine war continue to be important, as further tensions will boost demand for gold, while indications of peace could soften its attraction. All these factors put gold in the limelight as investors consider risk versus security in an uncertain world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold holds a bullish bias even after the recent pullback, with prices keeping above the crucial 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the midline at around 56.80, indicating continued bullish bias. The nearest resistance comes at the $3,400–$3,410 band, a breach of which could open the way for $3,439 and possibly the $3,500 level. On the downside, sustained weakness below $3,325 could expose the next support around $3,200, keeping traders cautious of any deeper correction. FORECAST Gold can continue to make gains if the price is pushed above the key $3,400–$3,410 resistance level. The journey upward can be sustained further towards $3,439, then the psychological $3,500 mark, which coincides with April’s highs. Safe-haven buying prompted by Fed independence fears and geopolitical tensions can add to the bullish momentum in the short term. Conversely, however, if profit-taking and US Dollar strength remain in control, Gold may once again come under pressure. A firm breach below $3,325 would likely leave the next significant level of support at $3,200, which is the lower edge of the Bollinger Band. Any less-than-expected inflation figures or reduced geopolitical tensions would further fuel this downward move, curbing gold’s short-term attractiveness.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls Below $3,400 as Tariff Tensions and Fed Uncertainty Halt Rally

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  • August 6, 2025
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Gold retreated below the $3,400 level on Wednesday, breaking a four-day rally as investors became wary with increasing U.S. Treasury yields, fresh tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump, and Fed policy uncertainty. The gold metal ran into resistance at the psychological level, with pace slowing down even as geopolitics continued to remain tense and hopes were raised of a September rate cut. Weak U.S. economic indicators, such as ISM Services, and lingering inflation risks further dulled market sentiment, while rumors surrounding Fed leadership transition fuelled the defensive mood in money markets. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are closely observing for signs on a possible rate cut next month amidst conflicting economic data and political stress on the Fed. •  Trump’s new tariff threats—against pharma, semiconductors, India, and Russia—may trigger renewed trade tensions and affect safe-haven demand for gold. •  Gold is still struggling with the pivotal $3,400 level, with momentum indicators reflecting indecision and potential downside risks. •  The next nomination to fill departing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s seat could affect the policy tone at the Fed and cause market fluctuations. Gold prices dipped slightly below the $3,400 level on Wednesday, ending a four-day uptrend as investors reevaluated the Federal Reserve’s policy path and responded to revived global trade tensions. The metal also encountered solid resistance near the psychological threshold, with advances capped by a firm U.S. Dollar and Treasury yield rebound before a crucial debt auction. Political risks increased after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned and Trump’s hawkish tariff talk against various industries and nations. Expectations for a September rate cut remain intact, but the mix of economic uncertainty, inflation fear, and geopolitical events continues to instill a defensive trading tone for gold. Gold took a breather, dipping below $3,400 levels as investors balanced Fed policy risks and fresh tariff threats from President Trump. Higher Treasury yields and conflicting U.S. economic data further contributed to market caution, limiting gold’s upside. • Gold fell below $3,400 after rallying for four days, with strong resistance at the psychological level. • U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield reversing from a three-month low. • Trump ramped up tariff threats, versus pharma, semiconductors, India, and Russia, heightening geopolitics risk. •  ISM Services PMI declined to 50.1, marking stagnation in services and persisting labor market softness. •  Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stepped down, heightening uncertainty regarding the Fed’s course prior to the September policy meeting. •  Markets anticipate an 87% probability of a September rate cut, capturing anticipations of looser policy. • Technicals indicate indecision, with gold consolidating close to support at the 50-day SMA and resistance in the region of $3,390–$3,400. Gold prices continued to face pressure as investors became cautious amidst a jumbled array of political, economic, and monetary events. Former President Donald Trump rekindled global trade worries by using forceful tariff threats on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and nations such as India and Russia. These remarks injected new layers of geopolitical uncertainty, and investors sat on their hands. In the meantime, U.S. economic data have provided mixed signals with the ISM Services PMI flattening in July and increasing input costs suggesting chronic inflation, further clouding the question of the strength of the U.S. economy. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from economic considerations, political events at the Federal Reserve have also commanded investor interest. The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has left a key vacancy at a time of heightened market anxiety about imminent interest rate choices. Gossip regarding her replacement—plus Trump’s potential role in shaping the direction of the central bank—has served to further enhance the market’s conservative mood. With nothing significant on the horizon in terms of data releases, eyes now shift to future comments from Federal Reserve officials for possible hints at policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now consolidating just above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,346, having been unable to hold the breakout above the resistance zone of $3,390–$3,400. The metal briefly broke below the lower trendline of an ascending triangle pattern last week but bounced back above the 100-day SMA near $3,282. Momentum indicators are still mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuating around the neutral 52 level, indicating a lack of strong directional polarity. The MACD is displaying initial signs of a recovery with a small bullish crossover, pointing to ebbing bearish pressure. A conclusive close above $3,400 may initiate a rally towards $3,450 or even retest all-time highs of around $3,500. FORECAST If gold can overcome the critical $3,390–$3,400 resistance level with solid volume, it may spark renewed buying pressure. A breakout success would tend to draw new buying interest, clearing the way toward $3,450. Continued advances above that may revisit the all-time high at about $3,500, particularly if geopolitical tensions continue and market expectations for a September Fed rate cut grow further. On the negative side, if support at the 50-day SMA around $3,346 fails, gold could be vulnerable to further losses. Such a breach will set the stage for the retesting of the 100-day SMA around $3,282, which was a strong support level in the last week’s selloff. If bearish pressure grows stronger and prices sink below that, the subsequent targets would be close to $3,200 and $3,150, particularly if U.S. economic indicators surprise to the higher side or political uncertainty surrounding the Fed diminishes.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Climbs Above $3,300 as Trade Tensions and Tariff Deadlines Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 31, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) has rallied above the $3,300 level after it reached a one-month low, fueled by fresh safe-haven demand with heightened global trade tensions on the back of the August 1 tariff deadline. The rally follows as the US Dollar weakens from recent highs and markets respond to President Trump’s tough tariff moves on nations such as India and Brazil. At the same time, uncertainty over trade deals, especially with China, and dovish hints from the Federal Reserve have left market sentiment weak. In spite of the Fed not raising rates, declining bond yields and robust institutional appetite, as captured in World Gold Council data, have also aided gold’s rebound. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets wait for final US tariff announcements, which can greatly influence risk sentiment and safe-haven investment into gold. • Investors watch the Core PCE Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims for new clues on inflation and the policy direction of the Fed. • XAU/USD continues to be stuck between $3,250 and $3,450, and a break above $3,350 or break below $3,250 will most likely determine the next trend. • Ongoing institutional buying, particularly through gold ETFs and central bank reserves, will be important in maintaining bullish momentum. Gold is trading around $3,306 after recovering from a one-month low, buoyed by fresh safe-haven demand as global trade tensions increase ahead of the August 1 deadline for US tariffs. President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies against India, Brazil, and other countries have spooked markets, while a softer US dollar and falling Treasury yields are also helping gold’s rebound. Investors are now waiting closely for major US inflation data and Fed remarks for additional guidance. Gold continues to be stuck in a range from $3,250 to $3,450, even with recent volatility, with institutional buying and central bank demand still offering underlying support. Gold is recovered above $3,300 as safe-haven demand rises and trade tensions escalate. Markets are waiting for August 1 tariff announcements and important US inflation numbers for additional guidance. The metal is stable between $3,250 and $3,450. • Gold recovers to $3,306 after falling to a one-month low of $3,268 due to renewed safe-haven demand. • US deadline for tariffs approaches August 1, with markets anticipating last-minute announcements from President Trump. • Aggressive trade actions are a 25% tariff on Indian imports and higher duties on Brazilian products. • Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% with no evident timeline for possible cuts as pressures build regarding inflation. • Bond yields fall, reducing the pressure on gold even as the Fed is taking a hawkish stance. •  Gold demand increased 3% YoY as ETF inflows and central bank buying drove H1 2025 performance. •  XAU/USD is range-stuck in between $3,250 and $3,450 with no clear momentum for breaking out. Gold is gaining increasing popularity with investors as tensions regarding the trade and geopolitics rise internationally. The focus has remained with the impending August 1 tariff deadline, with President Trump to reveal last-minute actions against nations such as India, Brazil, and others. This action has increased uncertainty in the market and restored demand for safe-haven investments in gold. Furthermore, the US has completed trade agreements with a number of countries, including South Korea, Japan, and the European Union, but talks with China are ongoing, contributing to the general sense of uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, macroeconomic numbers and central bank rhetoric are adding to the allure of gold. The Federal Reserve has recently left interest rates unchanged and signaled vigilance on future policy action, citing ongoing risks from inflation. Investors are also keeping a close eye on several imminent US economic releases, including the PCE Price Index and jobless claims, which are likely to affect sentiment. Gold’s function as an inflation and uncertainty hedge remains popular among retail and institutional investors alike, as evidenced by the robust flows into gold ETFs and ongoing central bank demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a clearly established sideways channel between $3,250 and $3,450, suggesting market indecision. The $3,250 level is solid support after having witnessed substantial buying interest in the past, and nearest resistance is at $3,350, which coincides with the 20-day Simple Moving Average as well as the middle Bollinger Band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, reflecting neutral to mildly bearish momentum, and the very low Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 11.28 indicates weak trend. Unless there’s a clear breakout above resistance or breakdown below support, gold is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. FORECAST If the trade tensions further intensify and the US Dollar drops on negative economic data, Gold may break above the resistance level of $3,350. A clear break above this region may set the stage for the higher zone around $3,450, and if the momentum picks up, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 may be possible. Increased gold ETF inflows, increasing geopolitical tensions, and dovish changes in Fed sentiment may also contribute to a sustained upside. On the flip side, if future US economic data makes the case for extended higher interest rates or trade-related threats dissipate through diplomatic agreements, Gold can lose safe-haven demand. Breaking below the $3,250 support will set off additional losses towards $3,150, which can serve as the next support cushion for buyers. Further, picking up Treasury yields and an uptick in the US Dollar will push gold prices down in the near future.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near $3,350 as USD Rebounds and Geopolitical Fears Persist

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  • June 3, 2025
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Gold prices remained close to the $3,350 level, falling from a near four-week high as the US dollar maintained modest intraday gains. Despite some profit-taking pressure associated with the dollar’s recovery and upbeat risk sentiment in global markets, continued geopolitical tensions, US-China trade tensions, and fears about the US fiscal situation continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Market participants also are wary in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025, which could cap substantial price falls in gold. Technical indications indicate limited downside risk around key support points, but a breakout above $3,400 might set the stage for a new challenge of the $3,500 psychological level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Keep an eye out for additional USD strength or weakness, as it will be one of the main drivers of gold’s short-term price action. • Market expectations of rate cuts in 2025 will act as a ceiling for USD gains and will give underlying support to gold. • Continuing US-China trade tensions and escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine, may boost safe-haven demand for gold. • Monitor key support near $3,324–$3,326 and resistance around $3,400–$3,432, which will determine gold’s next directional move. Investors should closely monitor the US dollar’s trajectory, as its strength or weakness continues to heavily influence gold prices in the near term. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 are likely to limit aggressive USD rallies, providing a supportive backdrop for gold. In contrast, surging geopolitical tensions, notably between the US and China, and simmering conflicts like Ukraine are driving safe-haven demand for the metal. From a technical standpoint, gold’s action around crucial support points of $3,324–$3,326 and resistance levels of $3,400 to $3,432 will be decisive in ascertaining if the precious metal can continue its upward momentum or experience further pullbacks. Watch the US dollar’s action and Fed rate cutting expectations, which significantly influence gold prices. Geopolitical tensions and trade tensions are still supporting safe-haven demand. The next direction of gold will be driven by key technical levels between $3,324 and $3,432. • Gold price slightly below $3,350, easing from a near four-week high as there is a modest US dollar bounce. • Stronger USD and upbeat global risk appetite are weighing on haven gold. • Continuing US-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks sustain gold’s safe-haven demand. • Market anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 serves to cap sharp falls in gold prices. • US fiscal outlook concerns contribute to USD caution, helping indirectly to support gold. • Technical support is around $3,324–$3,326, with resistance around $3,400–$3,432 key to further advances. • A sustained breakout above $3,432 may prompt an effort to try and retest the all-time highs around $3,500. Gold prices are currently trading just above the $3,350 level, somewhat driven by the US dollar’s modest retreat from recent lows. The strength of the dollar has prompted some investors to take some profits in gold, which is perceived as a safe-haven commodity. Yet the metal remains to gain from continued geopolitical tensions such as increasing trade tensions between China and the US and increased threats of the Ukrainian conflict. These risks are causing investors to remain defensive and underpinning gold demand as a hedge against global uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, hopes that the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates in 2025 are capping any sudden gains in the US dollar and offering underlying support to gold. Fears regarding the US fiscal outlook are also leading to a defensive mood towards the dollar, which tends to favor non-yielding assets such as gold. With these dynamics in place, gold stands to continue being an important asset for those investors who want to hedge in the face of a messy and uncertain global economic landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold just broke above important resistance levels of $3,324 to $3,326, indicating bullish sentiment among dealers. The ability of the price to stay above these levels of support indicates underlying strength, and the next key area to monitor is the $3,400 to $3,432 range, which may serve as resistance before gold tries to challenge its all-time highs. Technicals on daily and hourly charts continue to be bullish, suggesting that the overall direction remains towards more upside. But any protracted fall below the set support levels can pave the way for a more profound correction towards the $3,300 level. FORECAST If gold manages to maintain support above the $3,324–$3,326 area, it could gain momentum and push toward the next resistance zone around $3,400–$3,432. Breaking through this level would likely open the way for gold to challenge its all-time highs near $3,500, fueled by ongoing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties. On the flip side, a consistent drop below the $3,324 support might intensify selling pressure, which could propel gold prices lower to the $3,300 level or even beyond. Enhanced US dollar strength or an unexpected relief in geopolitical tensions may suppress the demand for gold, heightening the chances of a more extensive pullback in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from Record Levels as US Trade Negotiations Ease Market Nerves

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  • April 17, 2025
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Gold prices pulled back from a new all-time high of $3,358, pulling back below the $3,300 level, as hopes for the United States’ success in trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico eased global market nerves somewhat. Nevertheless, the downside for gold is still limited, as persistent US-China trade tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand. The US Dollar also gained modest strength after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and indications of diplomatic progress in trade talks. Although investors took some profits, the overall gold outlook remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns and robust technical momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Although the recent correction from its all-time high of $3,358, gold’s overall trend is still bullish, underpinned by solid technical indicators such as the 14-day RSI remaining above 70 and EMAs pointing upwards. • The current dignity-driven confrontation between the US and China continues to offer a support level for gold prices, sustaining safe-haven demand in the face of global economic uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index recovered from close to a three-year low after trade talks with Japan and Mexico indicated advances, alleviating short-term concerns over global dislocation and weighing on gold. • Gold has firm resistance at the $3,400 level, while the 20-day EMA near $3,135.50 will serve as crucial support in case the correction further intensifies. Gold prices pulled back from a record high of $3,358 as progress in U.S. trade talks with Japan and Mexico slightly calmed global market jitters, prompting some investors to book profits. However, the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions continue to support the precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, limiting further downside. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar made a small comeback, assisted by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and declining trade uncertainty, which also dented gold’s near-term momentum. Even with the correction, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, underpinned by robust technicals and ongoing global economic risks. Gold prices eased from a new all-time high of $3,358 as the advance in U.S. trade talks with Japan and Mexico calmed global economic uncertainty. Yet, current U.S.-China tensions are still boosting safe-haven demand, keeping the overall bullish stance for gold in place. • Gold prices corrected from a new all-time high of $3,358, falling back below $3,300 on profit-booking. •  Unsolved US-China trade tensions continue to provide underlying support for gold as a safe-haven asset. •  The U.S. Dollar recovered modestly from a near three-year low, limiting gold’s upside in the near term. •  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments indicated optimism about U.S. economic stability, which strengthened the dollar. •  Technical indicators are still bullish, with the 14-day RSI still above 70 and all key EMAs pointing upwards. •  $3,135.50 as solid support (20-day EMA) and $3,400 as key resistance. Gold prices softened as hopes increased about the advancement of U.S. trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico. Encouraging news from U.S. President Trump on the continuation of talks eased global market uncertainty, leading some investors to divert attention away from safe-haven commodities such as gold. The alleviation of trade tensions has for the moment dulled fears about possible disruptions in the global economy. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView But even with this advance, the unresolved China-U.S. trade row remains a lurking presence in the background, keeping market sentiment in check. The prospect of a standoff more about political ego than commerce, however, poses a guarantee that gold continues to be a critical buffer in times of uncertainty for investors. The market continues to be waiting for further developments as global economic risks are yet to run their course. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in the robust bullish trajectory despite recent correcting from an all-time high at $3,358. Prices are still trending well above principal moving averages, with all the short-to-medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) rising – indicating prolonged demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still cruising above the level of 70, which implies that bull pressure is still firmly in place though some profit-booking at these high levels comes naturally. If the price continues its decline, the 20-day EMA at $3,135.50 is likely to serve as a strong support level, and on the upside, the $3,400 level is an important resistance barrier for any potential break. FORECAST Gold’s medium-term perspective is bullish, driven by ongoing global economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand, particularly as U.S.-China trade tensions persist. If positive momentum is regained, prices may retest the $3,300 level and target the psychological resistance of $3,400. Ongoing uncertainty regarding global trade relations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies can continue to drive further rallies in gold prices. On the negative side, any serious breakthrough in U.S. trade negotiations — particularly if the U.S. and China resume talks — would soothe global market jitters, taking some heat off gold. As long as profit-taking continues and the U.S. Dollar gains strength, prices of gold may drift toward the 20-day EMA level of $3,135.50, the next support point of note. A break through this would invite further corrections towards the $3,100 level.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Clings Above $3,000 Despite Pullback, Poised for Weekly Gain as Strong US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions Sustain Prices

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  • March 22, 2025
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Gold prices fell for the second day in a row on Friday, dropping to about $3,019 as investors took profits and the US Dollar gained strength. Gold is still poised for weekly gains, however, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the market. The strong position of Federal Reserve officials, with no hurry to lower interest rates in the face of economic uncertainty and the effect of President Trump’s trade policy, has also added strength to the Greenback. Rising tensions in Gaza have meanwhile contributed to market anxiety, sustaining gold’s safe-haven appeal despite momentum indicators pointing towards a possible short-term correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Short-term pullbacks notwithstanding, gold’s resilience in remaining above the psychological $3,000 level reflects underlying bullishness and further potential for the price to go higher if investors buy back. • The strengthening US Dollar and the dovish stance of Fed officials, who don’t see an immediate need to reduce interest rates, still depress gold prices short term. • Gaza violence and increasing geopolitical tensions may provide support to gold as a safe-haven asset, keeping investors in suspense. • The nearest support is at $3,020, then the key $3,000 and $2,954 levels. On the upside, a move above $3,050 may lead the way to the $3,100 Gold traders are keenly observing key factors that may determine price action in the next few days. In spite of recent profit-taking and the strength of the US Dollar, gold’s resilience to remain above the pivotal $3,000 level indicates sustained investor appetite. The Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to interest rate reductions and increasing US Treasury yields are pinning down bullion, but geopolitical tensions—most notably the renewed hostilities in Gaza—are sustaining gold’s safe-haven demand. Market participants will also be watching key technical levels, support around $3,020 and resistance at $3,050, which might dictate the direction of XAU/USD in the next session. Gold continues to hold up above the $3,000 level despite temporary profit-taking and a firmer US Dollar. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s hawkish tone remain at play and continue to affect market sentiment, with investors ready to watch out for key technical breakouts. • Gold prices fall for the second day in a row but stay above the $3,000 mark. • Gold is poised to record weekly gains despite the retreat, driven by market uncertainty. • US Dollar gains as investors react to Fed’s conservative approach to rate cuts. • Fed officials signal no hurry to loosen policy, citing economic uncertainty and Trump’s tariffs. • Geopolitical tensions increase as Israel renews attacks in Gaza, fueling safe-haven demand. • Technical perspective indicates short-term support at $3,020 and major resistance at $3,050. • Momentum indicators indicate a possible short-term pullback, but long-term trend is bullish. Gold prices have remained resilient this week, holding firm despite a temporary dip towards the close of the trading sessions. The market still struggles with a stronger US Dollar, fueled by cautious indications from Federal Reserve officials who have reaffirmed their policy of keeping interest rates unchanged in the face of economic uncertainties. With no imminent intention to loosen monetary policy, investors are closely watching how trade policies, particularly the effects of newly imposed tariffs, will influence the overall economic outlook in the next few months. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Grappling with market tensions are mounting geopolitical threats, especially in the Middle East. The recent restart of hostilities in Gaza after a two-month ceasefire has ratcheted up global uncertainty. Such events usually heighten demand for safe-haven assets such as gold since investors want insulation from possible worldwide instability. Despite short-term threats, long-term economic and geopolitical issues continue to underpin the role of gold in diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold still shows a widely bullish trend in spite of recent declines. The metal has managed to hold above the important psychological level of $3,000, reflecting strong underlying support. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) do, however, indicate a short-term loss of bullish momentum, with the index having fallen for the second day in a row. If selling pressure intensifies, gold may test lower support zones at $3,020 and major resistance at $3,050 , while a rebound above recent resistance could reignite upward momentum. Traders are closely watching these key levels to determine the next directional move. FORECAST Gold prices could see a fresh rally in the coming sessions. A sustained move above recent resistance levels may open the path toward higher targets, potentially revisiting the $3,050 zone and beyond. Sustained geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global trade policies, and any economic softening would further enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold. And on the Federal Reserve front, any change in tone to a dovish position could be the trigger for fresh bullion buying interest. Conversely, if profit-taking persists and the US Dollar stays firm, gold could experience more downside pressure. A breakdown below the $3,000 psychological level would instigate a more serious correction, sending prices down to the next support levels. Increasing US Treasury yields and ongoing hawkish messages by Fed officials could also hamper sentiment, inducing transitory losses in gold’s positive trend. Unless key support levels are broken decisively, however, the overall outlook should still remain positive in the medium term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Retreats On Quadruple Witching: Rally Halts Near $3,030 but Bullish Traction Remains Unscathed

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  • March 21, 2025
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Gold prices backed off on Friday, falling from their all-time highs during the turmoil of Quadruple Witching — a market phenomenon that involves the concurrent expiry of different futures and options contracts. Having earlier reached a new all-time high of $3,057, gold fell back to a level of about $3,030 in the European session, as investors practiced profit-taking. Even after the pullback, the yellow metal is still well-supported above the crucial $3,000 level, and geopolitical tensions as well as uncertainty in the global economy continue to support its allure. Analysts are still hopeful, with expectations that gold can rally further to the $3,500 level in the months ahead. KEY LOOKOUTS        • Gold is still firmly supported above the psychological $3,000 level despite the recent fall, which keeps the bull run alive. • Near-term resistance is at $3,042, followed by the new all-time high of $3,057. A breakout higher would set the stage for $3,074 and higher. • Ongoing violence in Gaza and Ukraine, and pending U.S. tariff releases, can continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. • Expiration of several futures and options contracts can produce near-term volatility, but also present strategic buying opportunities for investors. Gold’s recent fall to about $3,030 is in the midst of increased market volatility fueled by Quadruple Witching, providing a chance for profit-taking among traders. The overall outlook, however, remains positive as the precious metal continues to trade above the important $3,000 support level. Important resistance levels at $3,042 and the recent all-time high of $3,057 will be closely monitored, with additional upside potential towards $3,074 if the momentum picks up. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and imminent trade tariffs remain supporting gold’s safe-haven demand, maintaining investor appetite strong and a possible rally to $3,500 in the cards. Gold remains firm above the critical $3,000 mark even as it fell back after Quadruple Witching profit-taking. Geopolitical tensions and fears of a trade war keep bullish momentum intact, with the $3,500 target within reach. • Gold experiences a small pullback after setting a new all-time high, largely because of Quadruple Witching profit-taking. • The precious metal continues to be well-supported above the psychological $3,000 mark, reflecting sustained bullishness. • Middle Eastern and Ukrainian geopolitical tensions continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. • Trade war worries and future U.S. tariffs are other drivers of investor interest in gold. • Gold has produced solid gains in 2025, including 15 record highs so far this year and a 16% gain. • Institutional funds and pension plans are increasingly relying on gold as a safe bet. • Forecasts see additional gains, with some predicting that gold may rise to $3,500 amidst continuing global uncertainty. Gold remains a favored safe-haven asset, propelled by persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty worldwide. Investors are looking more and more to the precious metal in light of Middle East and Ukrainian conflicts, as well as fears of possible trade interruptions. The quest for stability during uncertain times has driven a robust rally this year, underscoring gold’s position as a safe store of value. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To add to its popularity, institutional buying is also increasing interest in gold. Pension funds and big investment institutions have reported solid returns from their commodity exposure, including gold. For example, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan recently recorded hefty gains, thanks in part to its commodity investments in gold. With analysts predicting even more elevated price targets, gold remains a magnet for individual and institutional investors looking for long-term safety. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent action displays a healthy period of consolidation following its robust run-up. Despite the prices trimming some of the gains, overall structure remains positive with support holding strong and registering ongoing buying pressure. The market is experiencing customary profit-taking as the market normally experiences during periods like Quadruple Witching but significant resistance points are still reachable. As long as gold remains in a position above critical levels of support, the upward trend is going to keep on going, and the trader will have opportunities to get in on dips and participate in the general trend. FORECAST Gold will continue on its bullish path in the medium to long term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and growing institutional investor demand. With the analysts setting targets as high as $3,500, the metal continues to draw safe-haven flows. If global tensions escalate or economic worries deepen, gold may witness fresh buying traction, driving prices above recent all-time highs. Central bank buying and inflation pressures could also serve as added tailwinds to the metal’s rally. While there is a robust overall prognosis, gold is not exempt from downside risks. Short-term adjustments could happen as a result of profit-taking, volatility in the markets, or change in investor mood during significant financial events such as Quadruple Witching. An appreciating U.S. dollar, increasing bond yields, or relaxation in geopolitical tensions could short-term pressure prices. If gold falls below important support levels, it can induce a more serious correction, inducing caution among market participants. But such pullbacks will be considered as buying opportunities unless there is a significant change in broader market fundamentals.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Soars to Record High on Middle East Tensions and Global Geopolitical Uncertainty

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  • March 18, 2025
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Gold reached a new all-time high of $3,028 as rising geopolitical tensions spark a demand for safe-haven assets. The increase comes after Israel pounded Gaza with airstrikes that signal the breakdown of a ceasefire agreement, stimulating concerns of wider regional war and retaliation by militant factions. Also, world markets are in suspense before a high-stakes telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with fears of sidelining Ukraine from peace negotiations. Soft U.S. economic data, upcoming Federal Reserve actions, and Germany’s anticipated defense spending increase further add to bullish momentum in gold, as investors look to higher levels with increasing uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS • Israeli attacks on Gaza bringing an end to the ceasefire agreement have increased market anxiety, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven investments such as gold. • The imminent telephone conversation between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin has the potential to change global geopolitics, guiding gold’s future direction. • Weak U.S. retail sales and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate stability are enhancing gold’s safe-haven status. • Gold has crossed major resistance levels with traders now looking to $3,030 as the next target and $3,200 as a possible medium-term milestone. Gold traders are factoring in the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the consequences of Israeli attacks on Gaza and possible retaliatory measures that would boost further safe-haven demand. Market players are also keenly observing the result of the expected Trump-Putin phone conversation, which can have a sizeable impact on global risk appetite and investor sentiment. Moreover, Germany’s referendum on a large defense budget and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in the next meeting are pivotal drivers of gold’s movement. Gold traders need to keep an eye out for increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Trump-Putin’s upcoming phone call. Attention is also focused on Germany’s defense budget vote and on the Fed policy stance, as both have the potential to continue fueling the trend. Major technical levels at $3,020–$3,030 are still pivotal for short-term direction. • Gold records a new all-time high of $3,028 as geopolitical tensions increase and safe-haven buying. • Israeli attacks on Gaza signal the collapse of the ceasefire, threatening wider regional war. • Investors turn to gold as a safe-haven commodity in times of global uncertainty and economic anxiety. • Trump-Putin telephone call hangs over the horizon, threatening to reshape the geopolitical landscape and affect gold prices. • German parliament to approve a $49 billion defense budget, which could give further impetus to the gold rally. • Weakening U.S. retail sales and dovish Fed policy lean favor rate cut expectations, underpinning gold demand. • Technical breakout still in play, with near-term resistance at key levels of $3,020 and $3,030 and support at $3,014/$3,007. Gold has again asserted its strength as a sound safe-haven instrument, hitting an all-time record in the backdrop of rising worldwide tensions. The recent Israeli bombardment of Gaza, marking the end of the ceasefire, has heightened concerns of a wider regional war, causing investors to flock to precious metals. The demand for gold in this instance mirrors increasing nervousness in international markets, where geopolitical tensions tend to push investors toward safer assets. As tensions in the Middle East escalate, gold remains in the spotlight as a value store in times of uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Joining the overall tension is a much-awaited phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin which is of particular interest. Given that the conversation is set to be around the Ukrainian war, markets are preparing for any significant geopolitical change. In addition, Germany’s impending vote on a large defense spending bill is a sign of a larger trend of heightened military emphasis among world powers. Combined with soft U.S. economic data and uncertainty regarding future policy direction, these events are supporting gold’s status as a premier asset during periods of global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has exhibited healthy bullish momentum by overcoming prior resistance areas and posting a fresh all-time high. The rally shows sustained investor belief, with price action recording higher highs consistently. Experts indicate psychological levels of $3,020 and $3,030 can be important zones for the short term, while earlier resistance becomes support. As key institutions start to forecast targets around $3,200, sentiment is still bullish; however, traders should be careful of reversals, as overbought rallies tend to attract profit-taking and corrective action. FORECAST Gold remains strong in bullish motion. The precious metal is highly situated to rise further, particularly if turmoil in the Middle East intensifies or world powers are unable to achieve diplomatic solutions. Moreover, hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts and higher defense spending by major economies may continue to drive investor appetite for gold as a safe-haven asset. Most analysts now believe that gold can test higher levels, with estimates looking toward the $3,100–$3,200 level in the medium term, driven by persistent market interest and supportive macroeconomic conditions. Even with the current rally, gold is not exempt from corrections. If geopolitical tensions subside or diplomatic developments occur—e.g., a fruitful Trump-Putin deal or a fresh Middle East ceasefire—investor psychology may move away from safe-haven assets. And if stronger-than-anticipated U.S. economic data comes out soon or the Federal Reserve hints at a more aggressive posture, gold may come under pressure. An abrupt shift in market positioning or profit-taking at higher levels can also induce short-term pullbacks, moving prices toward significant support areas and temporarily tempering the bullish trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Holds Steady Near Record Highs Amid Trade Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Bets

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  • March 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate near its all-time highs, supported by rising trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Despite a subdued start to the week, the precious metal remains well bid due to safe-haven demand, while a weaker US Dollar further underpins the bullish outlook. Although China’s recent economic stimulus has improved global risk sentiment and capped immediate gains, the overall trend remains in favor of the bulls. Market participants now await the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh direction, with the broader setup suggesting potential for further upside momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS • All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is expected to provide clarity on interest rate cuts and drive the next major move in XAU/USD • Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising trade war fears continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, keeping it near record highs. • A weaker US Dollar, hovering near multi-month lows, remains a supportive factor for gold prices. Any shift in USD sentiment could influence gold’s direction. • Key support lies near $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 zones, while a sustained move above $3,000 could open doors for the next bullish leg in gold’s uptrend. As gold prices hover near record highs, market participants are closely watching several key factors that could influence the next move in XAU/USD. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision remains a critical event, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2025 supporting the bullish outlook for the non-yielding metal. At the same time, heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade conflicts continue to boost safe-haven demand. Additionally, the US Dollar’s weakness near multi-month lows lends further support to gold prices. On the technical front, crucial support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are in focus, while a clear break above the psychological $3,000 level could trigger a fresh bullish rally. Gold price remains well-supported near record highs amid Fed rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. A weaker US Dollar adds to the bullish momentum, while key technical levels around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 remain crucial for near-term direction. All eyes now turn to the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh cues. • Gold consolidates near all-time highs, staying just below the $3,000 psychological mark. • Safe-haven demand rises amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. • Fed rate cut expectations for 2025 continue to support the bullish outlook for XAU/USD. • US Dollar remains weak, hovering near multi-month lows, further boosting gold prices. • China’s economic stimulus lifts market sentiment, capping immediate gains in gold. • Technical support levels at $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are key zones to watch for any pullback. • The upcoming FOMC meeting is the most awaited event, likely to provide fresh direction for gold. Gold continues to hold its ground near record highs, driven by growing global uncertainties and strong safe-haven demand. Rising trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, including escalating situations in the Middle East and concerns over global economic stability, have reinforced gold’s appeal as a reliable store of value. Additionally, the market sentiment is being shaped by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates multiple times in 2025, as signs of economic slowdown and softer inflation data emerge in the U.S. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Adding to the supportive environment for gold, the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure amid these rate cut expectations, making the precious metal more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, including initiatives to boost domestic consumption and support the housing sector, have helped improve market confidence globally. However, gold continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe haven amid global instability, keeping it in focus for investors seeking long-term security. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, having recently broken above key resistance levels and now consolidating near its all-time highs. The overall market structure suggests continued upward momentum, supported by strong buying interest on any dips. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, signaling a possibility of short-term consolidation, the broader chart pattern still favors the bulls. Key support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 could act as potential entry points for buyers, while a sustained move above the $3,000 psychological mark may open the door for further upside in the coming sessions. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory if current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions persist. Expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, combined with ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties, could continue to fuel safe-haven demand. A sustained weak US Dollar would further support this bullish outlook, potentially pushing gold beyond the $3,000 psychological mark. If risk sentiment weakens and investors seek safety, gold could attract more inflows, paving the way for new record highs in the coming months. On the flip side, any signs of easing geopolitical tensions or a shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone toward a more hawkish stance could limit gold’s gains or even trigger a pullback. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US economic data or a rebound in the US Dollar may reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal. If global markets regain stability and risk appetite improves, investors might shift focus away from safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a moderate decline in prices from current elevated levels.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Struggles Amid Mixed Signals: Key Levels to Watch Below $2,750

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  • January 28, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade in a range below the $2,750 level, as a mix of factors weighs on the yellow metal, including rebounding US bond yields, revived USD demand, and inflationary concerns triggered by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff threats. While these factors weigh on the yellow metal, worries about economic fallout and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts provide support. Traders are careful ahead of the FOMC meeting and US economic data, with immediate resistance near $2,755-2,757 and key support around $2,725-2,750. A breakout above $2,800 could indicate a fresh bullish trend, while further declines may target key Fibonacci levels below $2,705. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold faces strong resistance near $2,757, with a potential breakout above $2,800 needed to confirm a bullish continuation. Watch for momentum around these levels. • Supportive levels range from $2,725 to $2,705. If this support breaks, a bigger decline will occur towards the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement. • Gold’s prices are vulnerable in the short term because of the possible effects on US bond yields and USD as a result of inflation worries raised by the tariff threats made by Trump on the US. • A Federal Reserve decision will dictate market behavior and guide further USD strength moves and potentially a better idea for the future movement of gold. Gold prices are hovering in a tight range below $2,750 as mixed cues rule the market sentiment. The revival of US bond yields, mainly due to inflationary concerns over President Trump’s tariff threats, continues to support the US Dollar while weighing on the precious metal. However, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over potential economic fallout from protectionist policies give gold prices a floor. Traders are observing key resistance at $2,755-$2,757 and a support at $2,725-$2,705 levels while the upcoming FOMC meeting and US economic data are to be considered the determinants for the next move. A breakout above $2,800 could signal renewed bullish momentum while the break below the key support would open doors for further decline. Gold prices still trade below $2,750 as US bond yields rise on inflationary fears from the tariffs threats. Gold traders are eyeing the FOMC for clearer direction. • Gold is consolidating at the lows around $2,750 and can’t capitalize on the recent bounce from multi-day lows. • US bond yields pick up on the inflationary concerns from President Trump’s trade tariffs, which pushes the USD and weighs on gold. • Bottom support in between $2,725-$2,705, while targets are made on the downside 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels. • Markets see immediate resistance near $2,755-$2,757 with a breach above $2,800 likely to initiate positive momentum. • Market expectations of two consecutive 25 bps Fed rate cuts this year would restrict US bond yields and maintain gold prices. • All eyes on the US Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Confidence Index for the upcoming short-term moves of gold. • This monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would go a long way in shaping the dynamics in the USD and further directional move for gold. Prices in gold (XAU/USD) continue to consolidate below $2,750. There are clearly mixed sentiments at play that prevent prices from rallying higher. Reviving the US bond yields through threats from President Trump’s trade tariffs on inflation has resurged the USD and pushed back on gold. However, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and apprehensions over the economic implications of protectionist policies are supporting the yellow metal. The immediate resistance levels are seen around $2,755-$2,757, and a breakout above $2,800 would be required to confirm a fresh bullish trend. On the downside, key support levels are pegged at $2,725-$2,705, which, if breached, could signal a deeper correction toward critical Fibonacci retracement levels. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled to provide further clarity on US monetary policy and implications for the USD. US economic data, such as Durable Goods Orders and the Consumer Confidence Index, could offer short-term direction for gold. The metal continues to hold up well against mixed market signals above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the December-January rally. With key data and events on the horizon, the next move in the gold market will be heavily influenced by how these impacts the bond yields, the US Dollar, and market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) continues to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally from above. The break above the $2,720-$2,725 resistance zone has now flipped this zone into a key support level, but for now, it cushions price to further decline. Oscillators on the daily charts have remained in positive territory, bolstering the upside move of the stock. Resistance comes at the immediately higher price levels of $2,755-$2,757, then the swing high at $2,772-$2,773 and the all-time peak near $2,790. A break above $2,800 would be sustained and confirm the continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, a break below $2,725 may lead to a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,705 and potentially deeper corrections. FORECAST Gold prices will continue to head higher if resistance levels are broken. A break above the $2,755-$2,757 area might push prices up toward the $2,772-$2,773 area. But a drive past that point may be what gets to the all-time high around $2,790. If buyers continue their momentum, breaking the psychologically sensitive $2,800 mark may help solidify a continued continuation of the trend upward due to concerns of inflation in the markets and dovish policies by the Federal Reserve. Positive momentum indicators, along with maintaining above retracement levels at major support points, add fuel to this view. Failure at near $2,725-$2,705 might deepen corrections into gold, breaking through those might slide towards a further 38.2% retracement level, close to the point of $2,705 with selling, even further to potentially breach the zone toward the 50% retracement point about $2,684. A stronger US Dollar and rising US bond yields, driven by hawkish

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