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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stands Firm with Trade Uncertainty and Divided Fed Cues

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  • July 10, 2025
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Gold prices maintain a firm bias for the second day running on the back of safe-haven demand due to rising trade tensions and a weakened US Dollar. Even as risk aversion is heightened by uncertainty about President Trump’s recent tariff policies, divided cues from the Federal Reserve on further rate cuts leave investors hesitant. The release of the FOMC minutes showed limited immediate support for a rate cut, capping gold’s upside despite falling US bond yields. As markets await US jobless claims data and further comments from Fed officials, gold remains range-bound near the $3,320 mark, with key resistance and support levels in focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key short-term trigger that could influence Fed rate cut expectations and Gold’s direction. • Any dovish or hawkish language would affect market sentiment surrounding interest rates and the USD. • Ongoing USD weakness and falling Treasury yields might be bullish for gold prices. • Reactions to Trump’s fresh tariffs and any retaliation will be a primary driver of safe-haven flows. Gold prices are holding up near $3,320 as investors grapple with a blend of global trade tensions and ambiguous Fed policy indications. President Trump’s most recent tariff announcements, such as a 50% tariff on copper imports, have further fueled market anxiety, pushing safe-haven flows into gold. The Fed’s meeting minutes meanwhile showed the policymakers were divided in their stance on rate cuts this month, although most policymakers continue to foresee easing later this year. This volatility, complemented by declining US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar, still provides underlying support to the non-yielding metal despite upside being capped by better risk sentiment in the equities. Gold prices are supported by increasing trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar, trading firmly around $3,320. Yet, dovish Fed signals and firmer equities are capping further gains. US jobless claims and Fed commentary are now awaited for direction. • Gold trades at $3,320 with a small intraday gain for the second consecutive day. • Trade tensions rise following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and warning of no exemptions or extensions. • Mixed opinions about rate cuts in FOMC minutes, with minimal near-term support but anticipation of easing towards year-end. • US Dollar again weakens for the second straight day, supporting Gold’s safe-haven status. • US bond yields fall, following the strong 10-year Treasury auction, underpinning non-yielding assets such as Gold. • Technical resistance at $3,335 and $3,360; breaking through could take Gold up to the $3,400 level. •  Key data ahead includes US Weekly Jobless Claims and Fed speeches, which could drive short-term market direction. Gold continues under the spotlight as international financial markets respond to heightened trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The latest action from US President Donald Trump to introduce new tariffs on various trading partners, including a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, has created uncertainty among investors. This geopolitical tension has rekindled demand for classic safe-haven assets such as gold, with market players seeking stability in the face of growing policy uncertainty and the possibility of retaliation from impacted countries. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes reflect intramural discord, as some policymakers are not keen to reduce interest rates in the near future. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement that rate reductions might be necessary later in the year if inflation remains benign and trade tensions suppress economic growth. These themes, together with a deteriorating US Dollar and risk-averse sentiment, continue to provide a bullish environment for gold in the larger market context. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains at the $3,320 level with a marginal bullish bias. Initial resistance is at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3,335, followed by a stronger zone of supply between $3,358 and $3,360. A forceful breakout above this area might initiate more bullish pressure, perhaps driving prices towards the $3,400 psychological mark. To the downside, a break below the support at $3,300 might reveal the $3,283–3,282 area, with additional losses risking a descent towards the monthly low at $3,248–3,247. Generally, traders need to look out for a definitive breakout or breakdown from these decisive technical levels for affirmation of the next move. FORECAST If geopolitical tension continues to spike and the US Dollar stays pressured, gold prices may witness fresh buying interest. A breakout above the $3,335 resistance level would set the stage for a move towards the $3,358–3,360 supply zone. Sizing through this barrier may initiate a short-covering rally, which has the potential to drive prices towards the $3,400 psychological level in the near future, provided that forward US economic data or Fed rhetoric aids the rate-cutting case. On the other hand, if the US is not able to negotiate trade deals by the August 1 tariff deadline, worldwide trade tensions could rise aggressively, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar. Also, if near-term UK economic releases are disappointing or worry over rising national debt and geopolitical tensions picks up pace, the GBP could be underpinned. A breakdown below the 1.3500 psychological support level may result in additional declines towards the next major point at 1.3400.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Holds Above $3,300 Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty

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  • July 8, 2025
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Gold prices remain resilient above the $3,300 level amid a complex mix of global economic and political factors. While diminishing hopes for a July Fed rate cut and Trump’s renewed tariff threats exert downward pressure, ongoing concerns over US fiscal stability and rising global risk aversion continue to support safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. US Dollar volatility contributes to the uncertainty, with gold prices stuck in a trading range until the more definitive indications from the FOMC meeting minutes ahead. There were no major economic data releases and market sentiment is being shaped predominantly by geopolitical events and US monetary policy expectations. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The issuance of tariff deadline extensions and aggressive threats against BRICS-aligned countries are intensifying concerns of international trade disruption, weighing on market sentiment. • Increasing expectations of sustained high interest rates based on expected inflation from tariffs are dampening gold’s potential upside. • As the USD reached a two-week high, fiscal worries and risk aversion are limiting further advances, providing minimal support for gold prices. • Resistance at $3,347–$3,360 and support at $3,295–$3,270 are key levels to watch for traders as gold looks for direction in a muddled fundamental environment. Gold prices are under modest pressure but stay firm above the $3,300 level as markets absorb mixed signals on the global and domestic fronts. The fading prospects of a July Fed rate cut due to inflation fears fueled by Trump’s brash tariff policy is limiting the non-yielding metal’s upside momentum. Yet safe-haven demand remains as a result of mounting geopolitical tensions, doubt over US fiscal health, and widespread risk aversion across global equity markets. Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar acts to offset gold’s losses, with market players now looking to the coming FOMC meeting minutes for clearer direction on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Gold price lingers near $3,300 as markets balance ebbing Fed rate-cut hopes against increasing global risk aversion. Tariff threats by Trump and a tempered US Dollar cap losses, holding gold firm in advance of key FOMC minutes. •  Gold holds above $3,300 despite small intraday declines, buoyed by safe-haven demand. •  Ebbing hopes for a July Fed rate cut weigh on the non-yielding metal due to inflation worries. •  Trump’s prolonged tariff threats against BRICS-aligned countries increase global economic insecurity. •  The US Dollar hit a two-week peak but finds it difficult to rise further on fiscal and trade-related concerns. •  Insufficient aggressive bearish bets on gold indicate investors remain cautious amid conflicting market cues. •  Technical resistance around $3,347–$3,360 caps upside, whereas support at $3,295–$3,270 remains pivotal. • Market attention turns to FOMC minutes for more precise guidance on the Fed’s next rate trajectory and USD direction. Gold prices are stable above the $3,300 level as investors remain conservative in light of increasing global uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s return to threats to impose higher tariffs—particularly on nations aligning with BRICS—has renewed apprehension regarding global trade disruptions and inflation. This change in trade policy has not just shaken market sentiment but also made it more difficult for the Federal Reserve’s strategy, as policymakers might now be required to hold higher interest rates for a longer period than expected to suppress inflationary pressures. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, the US Dollar has also indicated strength but is held back by perceptions related to the fiscal health of the country and the general impact on the economy of tariff hikes. The dearth of specific economic data during the early part of the week has kept markets focused on wider geopolitical events and future policy guidance from the Federal Reserve. Here, gold is still taking advantage of its safe-haven demand, as global equities are experiencing distress and investor sentiment remaining weak. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is running into resistance at the $3,347-$3,348 level, which is around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A continued advance beyond this level may trigger short-covering and send prices to the $3,360 supply zone, with a break-out opening up the psychological $3,400 mark. To the downside, near-term support is in the $3,300–$3,295 area, which has thus far managed to cap further declines. A firm fall through this level may fan selling pressure, leading the metal to the next major support at $3,270, and even lower down to June’s low around $3,247. FORECAST If gold can clear the near-term resistance at $3,348 and hold on for more than the $3,360 supply zone, it may signal a bullish breakout. This could draw in new buying interest, creating a short-term rally toward the $3,400 psychological level. Ongoing global risk aversion, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or any dovish comments from the upcoming FOMC minutes could further fuel the upside path for gold. On the other hand, if gold is unable to sustain the $3,300–$3,295 support level, it can expect to come under more selling pressure. A firm break below the range can pave the way to the $3,270 support level, and more losses can bring the price down to the June swing low of approximately $3,247. A stronger US Dollar, hardline Fed perspective, or decline in global tensions can serve as triggers for this bearish move.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Sparkles at $3,330 as Trade War Uncertainties and Weaker USD Increase Safe-Haven Buying

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  • July 5, 2025
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Gold prices remain in the spotlight, trading above $3,330 and heading for a more than 1.5% weekly increase, as an escalation of global trade tensions and a softer US Dollar increase safe-haven buying. US President Trump’s announcement of tariffs between 10% and 70% to kick in on August 1 has increased market wariness, and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks regarding potential retaliatory tariffs in 100 countries further fueled uncertainty. Strong US labor fundamentals and stiff Treasury yields notwithstanding, expectations of a Federal Reserve pause in interest rates are sustaining bearish optimism. Investors are waiting with bated breath for future FOMC minutes and jobless claims releases for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders await the effect of Trump’s suggested 10% to 70% tariffs and their effect on global trade and safe-haven investments such as gold. • As there is decent labor data and consistent yields, traders are waiting for hints in future FOMC meeting minutes on any likely rate actions. • Declining US Dollar in the face of growing national debt and conservative Fed rhetoric may continue to buoy gold prices. • The key resistance remains at $3,400 and $3,452, while a break below $3,300 may pave the way towards $3,246 or even $3,120. Gold is holding firm above $3,330, rising more than 1.5% this week as investors move towards safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and fears of trade wars. The revelation of possible US tariffs of 10% to 70%, to be rolled out on August 1, triggered fears of the strain on world economies, further damaging the US Dollar and supporting bullion demand. Though robust US labor statistics and solid Treasury yields will constrain upside potential, hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve policy are sustaining gold’s rally. Traders now anticipate FOMC minutes and jobless claims for better hints at monetary policy. Gold prices creep up past $3,330 with trade war concerns and a weakening US Dollar driving safe-haven demand. Investors will be waiting for important Fed cues next week, with FOMC minutes and jobless claims being watched. • Gold is trading above $3,330, more than 1.5% higher for the week, on safe-haven demand. • Trump imposes tariffs of 10% to 70%, starting August 1, raising specter of trade war. • US Treasury Secretary expects retaliatory tariffs from about 100 nations. • US Dollar drops under pressure from surging national debt and policy uncertainty. • US labor market remains resilient, but private sector hiring weakens in face of economic prudence. • Gold’s rally limited by solid US Treasury yields, with the 10-year at 4.338%. • Technical levels to monitor: Resistance at $3,400/$3,452, support at $3,300/$3,246. Gold is picking up steam as investors flock to the yellow metal for safe haven as geopolitical and economic tensions grow. Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of future tariffs between 10% and 70% on various nations has set the markets in a state of panic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that almost 100 nations were potentially in the crosshairs for reciprocal tariffs, which has heightened fears over global trade disruptions. These events have boosted demand for gold, a classic safe-haven investment, particularly as market players prepare for possible ripple effects on economies. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the trade tensions, political events and fiscal issues in the US are contributing to the allure of gold. The suggested extension of the 2017 tax reductions through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit, which could weaken the US Dollar in the long run. At the same time, geopolitical discussions—like Trump’s recent talks with Russia and Ukraine leaders—show that there is still instability, driving investors deeper into assets such as gold. As markets are taking in these wider risks, gold continues to reap the rewards of acting as a hedge against uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still consolidating above the pivotal $3,300 support level, and momentum gauges such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are holding near the middle ground, hinting at a slowdown in bull runs. Gold has not broken out above its last cycle high of $3,452, which implies that the buyers are going to require stronger drivers to turn the prices higher. A breakout above $3,400 and $3,452 would confirm renewed bullish strength, targeting the all-time high near $3,500. On the downside, sustained weakness below $3,300 could open the door for a pullback toward $3,246, a critical level for maintaining the broader uptrend. FORECAST If the geopolitical tensions rise further and the US Dollar stays weak, gold may return to strong bullish momentum. A clear break above the $3,400 level would most probably attract more buyers, with the subsequent target lying at $3,452—the former cycle high. Breaking above this resistance area might move prices towards the psychological benchmark of $3,500, particularly if the Federal Reserve sticks to a dovish policy or economic uncertainty accelerates. On the other hand, if US data remains to be resilient—specifically in labor markets and inflation—and Treasury yields continue to advance, gold can come under selling pressure. A break below the $3,300 support level might initiate a more profound correction down to $3,246. If this support level also breaks, further losses might result in a test of the $3,120 area where buyers might re-enter to protect the longer-term bullish trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Poised for First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks on US Fiscal Jitters and Trade Uncertainty

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  • July 4, 2025
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Gold price is set to record its first weekly gain in three weeks, boosted by US fiscal jitters and revived trade uncertainty. Despite a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report that reduced hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, the US Dollar struggled to sustain gains amid rising fears over the country’s long-term debt trajectory following President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. Additionally, upcoming tariff changes and holiday-thinned trading conditions are keeping market participants cautious, yet the underlying safe-haven demand continues to support the precious metal, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising fears over long-term debt due to President Trump’s tax and spending bill are weighing on the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven demand for Gold. • A more-than-anticipated NFP reading has dulled near-term rate cut expectations, but softer wage growth leaves the door open for policy relaxation in the latter part of the year. • Gold price is battling a critical resistance level around the $3,352–$3,355 levels; a convincing break above may spark additional gains towards $3,400. • With US markets being shut on Independence Day, low trading volumes can induce volatility and risk aversion among XAU/USD traders. Gold price stays strong as it targets its first weekly advance in three weeks, supported by rising US fiscal tensions and ongoing trade-related volatilities. While the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls report briefly boosted the US Dollar and cooled speculation of an imminent Fed rate cut, the signing into law of President Trump’s tax-reduction and spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion to national debt, has lifted longer-term economic worries, topping USD gains. Combined with imminent tariff realignments and holiday-thinned market liquidity, these demand drivers still provide support to Gold safe-haven demand and maintain its near-term outlook biased to the upside. Gold price remains robust, underpinned by US fiscal worries and trade uncertainty even in the face of more-than-expected jobs data. Holiday-thinned market liquidity and the proximity of resistance to the 100-SMA may suppress the upside but overall remain bullish. • Gold is set to end a two-week losing streak, which will reflect renewed bullish momentum. • Fears surrounding President Trump’s spending bill and its $3.4 trillion debt burden are putting pressure on the US Dollar. • Stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data cut short-term Fed rate cut speculation but failed to fully bolster the Dollar. • Lower wage growth tempered inflation concerns, keeping hopes high for easing Fed policy in the future. • Gold finds it difficult to move past the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart at $3,352–$3,355, a pivotal zone. • US Independence Day has trimmed market liquidity, and traders are being cautious. • Continued trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to fuel demand for Gold. Gold is poised to break its two-week losing spree, underpinned by a favorable fundamental environment fueled by increasing fiscal worries in the United States and continued worldwide trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s huge tax-cut and spending bill’s approval has sent alarm bells ringing about the nation’s long-term debt horizon, shattering the US Dollar and causing an uptick in demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. Also, uncertainty over planned tariff increases has further boosted investor appetite for Gold, with markets getting ready for prospective trade disruptions before the July 9 deadline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figure temporarily supported the US Dollar earlier by suppressing short-term Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Slower wage gains in the same release, though, smoothed out inflation worries, and left the window open for potential later-year monetary easing. With US markets shut on Independence Day, trading has been subdued but the underlying drivers still support a bullish sentiment in Gold as investors flock towards it for safety against increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is finding it difficult to clear the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which is behaving as a good resistance around the $3,352–$3,355 level. A breakdown past this level may set the stage for an extended rally to the $3,366 area and, possibly, the $3,400 psychological level. To the downside, near-term support comes in around the $3,326–$3,325 area, followed by more robust support at $3,311 and $3,300. A collapse below these levels may turn the tide in the bears’ direction, threatening to expose the $3,270 support zone and even the monthly low of $3,248 if the pressure from the bears mounts. FORECAST If Gold price is able to break and hold above the 100-period SMA in the vicinity of $3,355, it may create fresh bullish momentum. This will most probably pave the way for a move towards the next resistance at $3,366, followed by the psychological hurdle of $3,400. A long-term rally above these levels with a weak US Dollar and safe-haven demand could further push the price towards $3,420 in the short term. Conversely, a failure to breach the 100-SMA resistance can draw Gold back towards the immediate support level at $3,325. Breaking through this area can invite additional selling pressure, taking Gold down to $3,311 and further to the key $3,300 level. If selling momentum gathers pace, the fall can go as far as the $3,270 level, with a possible retest of the monthly low around $3,248.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Increases and Geopolitical Trade Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 1, 2025
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Gold prices are moving higher, reaching a three-day high of around $3,333 on increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased geopolitical trade uncertainties. The US Dollar dipped to its lowest point since February 2022, as the downwardly pressured economic data, fears of a widening fiscal deficit, and Trump’s hawkish trade approach before the July 9 tariff expiration day weighed. Safe-haven interest in gold is also underpinned by political tensions and volatility around key US macroeconomic events during the week, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and highly expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are factoring in a 74% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, with scope for easing as early as July, which continues to sustain gold prices. •  The USD has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 on the back of growing fiscal worries and dovish expectations of monetary policy. •  Trump’s latest tariff threat on several nations may ignite safe-haven buying and push gold even higher. •  Major releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be keenly observed for new direction in USD and gold price movements. Gold prices are still rising as investors react to increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global trade tensions. The weakening US Dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, reflects market concerns over the Fed’s potential policy easing and the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold are uncertainties surrounding former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, with the July 9 deadline looming. Traders also look toward critical US economic reports this week—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Nonfarm Payrolls report—that may continue to impact gold’s near-term trend. Gold prices rise with Fed rate cut expectations and trade uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand. A softer US Dollar and threatened tariffs by Trump further bolster the bullish case. Traders now look to critical US data, including the NFP report, for additional guidance. • Gold prices increase for the second day in a row, hitting approximately $3,333 on the back of firm safe-haven demand. • Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut before September increase gold and push the US Dollar down. • The USD declines to its lowest level since February 2022 as a result of fiscal worries and poor economic data. • Trump’s fresh trade warnings prior to the July 9 deadline contribute to global uncertainty and underpin gold. • US Treasury Secretary hints at potential tariff increases from 11% to 50%, reinforcing market conservativeness. • Market participants are looking for important US macroeconomic releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and NFP. • Technical resistance is around $3,350–$3,370 and major support is at $3,245–$3,200. Gold remains a focus for investors as world markets respond to a combination of economic and political events. Increasing bets the Federal Reserve will follow quickly with rate cuts in coming weeks have reduced the US Dollar, boosting the allure of gold as a non-yielding haven asset. In the meantime, recent indicators of shrinking consumer spending and worries about a growing federal deficit are putting further pressure on the central bank to step in, supporting the market’s dovish bias. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a significant part in favoring gold. Former President Donald Trump has intensified his trade rhetoric, threatening higher tariffs on nations that don’t seal agreements before the July 9 deadline. Those threats and the prospect of rising trade tensions have contributed to investor wariness. As markets expect major US economic releases this week, gold is preferred by traders who want stability in the face of economic and policy-related uncertainties. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is depicting a consistent bullish inclination while it is trading close to a three-day high level of $3,333. The nearest resistance can be seen in the $3,324–$3,325 range, a breakout above which might pave the way for additional upsides towards the $3,350 and $3,370 levels. Long-term strength above these levels can push the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, initial support comes at $3,300, followed by stronger support around $3,276 and $3,245. A fall below these levels may switch momentum back in the favor of the bears and reveal the $3,210–$3,200 zone. FORECAST Gold could pierce near-term resistance at the $3,325 level and target the next significant barrier at $3,350. A clear breach above this level could set the stage for the $3,370 area, and eventually, the psychological $3,400 threshold. Sustained dollar weakness, added assurance on Fed rate cut expectations, and growing worldwide trade tensions would more than likely drive further rises in gold prices. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,300 support level may invite a bearish pullback, revealing the $3,276 and $3,245 levels. A break below these supports might speed up the fall towards the $3,210–$3,200 range. Further downside risk might emerge if future US macroeconomic indicators surprise to the upside, alleviating pressure on the Fed and bolstering the US Dollar, hence diminishing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

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  • June 27, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Above $3,300 on Fed Uncertainty and Tenuous Israel-Iran Ceasefire

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  • June 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) enjoys a modest intraday bullish bias, trading well above the $3,300 level on mixed market directions. Although expectations for impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts keep the US Dollar in check and provide support to the non-yielding metal, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a generally upbeat risk sentiment cap strong upside strength. Lack of confidence in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire introduces a geopolitical risk premium that underlies gold’s safe-haven status. Market participants now look to major US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, jobless claims, and the PCE Price Index, which can offer further guidance for the USD and prices of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • At least 50 bps of Fed rate reductions by year-end are being priced in by markets, with attention on whether July will see a move and the testimony by Powell for additional indications. • Ongoing anxiety regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire and looming concerns about renewed hostilities are continuing to fuel gold’s safe-haven demand. • Traders look to Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the PCE Price Index later this week, potentially altering Fed expectations and affecting USD and gold. • Strong support at around $3,300 with scope for downside towards $3,245 if broken; upside limited near $3,370–$3,400 unless robust bullish momentum is seen. Gold price stays firm above the $3,300 level on Wednesday, buoyed by subdued US Dollar sentiment and persisting geopolitical volatility around the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Although the precious metal is buoyed by safe-haven buying and anticipations of rate cuts by the Fed this year, dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have cooled bullish enthusiasm. Investors seem guarded before critical US macroeconomic releases, such as GDP numbers and the PCE Price Index, which may determine forthcoming Fed policy and, therefore, affect gold’s short-term direction. Gold price remains above $3,300 despite conflicting signals from Fed rhetoric and geopolitical tensions. Soft USD and tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in place to underpin safe-haven demand for the metal. Bulls remain on hold pending crucial US data releases that will determine the direction in Fed policy and gold pricing. •  Markets expect at least 50 bps of rate cuts by end of year, keeping the USD on back foot. •  Additional information from the Fed Chair will provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy direction. •  The major releases such as Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and PCE Index will have an impact on sentiment. •  Any escalation in tensions may push gold demand towards safe-haven. •  Gold’s direction is still very much dependent on USD weakness or strength. •  Keep an eye on price action in the $3,300 support and $3,370–$3,400 resistance areas. • Short-term gold price direction will be influenced by equity market trends and geopolitical announcements. Gold price remains in a modestly bullish stance, underpinned by increasing market optimism that the Federal Reserve can start its rate-cutting journey towards the end of this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s comments in recent times presaged a subtle move towards easing policy, yet investors are still eyeing the general economic context, which indicates decelerating inflation and weakening labor markets. This kindles hopes of policy accommodation, which usually helps non-yielding assets such as gold. Uncertainty in global markets also preserves the safe-haven credentials of gold despite overall sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events also prove instrumental in sustaining support for gold. Although a formal ceasefire has been observed between Israel and Iran, recent cross-border military operations by both nations have thrown its longevity into doubt. The tensions are a promoter of a risk-averse environment, pushing investors to hold on to safe-haven assets. In the meantime, some expectation is building for major US economic data releases this week, which may have implications both for the Federal Reserve’s positioning and subsequent market action. Therefore, gold is still in the spotlight as traders weigh interest rate expectations against continuing geopolitical threats. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price has recently broken below a short-term rising channel, confirming the potential for a change in momentum to the downside. Oscillators on the daily and 4-hourly charts are gaining bearish momentum, reflecting increasing pressure from the bears. The level of major resistance is now close to the $3,368–$3,370 area, which was earlier acting as channel support. Unless bulls overcome this level with strength, any rallies can be met with selling. On the bearish side, a clear break below the $3,300 level can pave the way for fall towards the $3,245–$3,210 support level. FORECAST If the geopolitics further deteriorate or if future US macroeconomic indicators continue to support the expectation of a near-term Fed rate cut, gold may regain positive bullish traction. A follow-through above the $3,370 resistance band could trigger new buying interest, prompting the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. Additional strength above this level may set the stage for a test of the $3,420–$3,450 region, particularly if the US Dollar further depreciates. Conversely, if the ceasefire in Israel-Iran persists and future US economic releases are stronger than anticipated, it might reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. If the price breaks below the support level of $3,300, it would be a bearish indicator and might result in a fall to $3,245. Sustained selling pressure can continue the decline even lower to the $3,210–$3,200 level, while further losses can be envisaged if the US Dollar gains traction or Fed rate cut expectations are diminished.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Under Pressure: Hawkish Fed Weighs on XAU/USD Despite Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainties

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  • June 20, 2025
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Gold prices continue to trade under selling pressure and are on the cusp of weekly losses, powered largely by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause and the stronger US Dollar. Even while backed by supportive drivers like elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and existing trade uncertainties—notably regarding U.S. tariff threats—safe-haven demand for gold has been unable to muster much potency. Although these risks might cap further downside, technicals indicate the possibility of a more severe correction unless there is robust dip-buying. General market sentiment remains cautious as investors balance meager rate cut hopes against rising global risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve’s inflation hawk and diminished expectations for rate reductions continue to underpin the US Dollar and put gold prices under pressure. • Increased Iran-Israel conflict, with potential U.S. intervention, would rekindle demand for the gold safe-haven. • Threatened U.S. tariffs, especially in the pharma space, and Trump’s “liberation day” deadline of July 9 can cause market volatility. • Monitor significant support levels around $3,323-$3,322 and resistance around $3,375 and $3,400 for short-term directional indications. Gold prices continue to be underpinned as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias supports the US Dollar and reduces the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and anticipated trade uncertainties, especially surrounding future U.S. tariffs, are helping support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Investors are sitting on the sidelines, weighing scant rate cut hopes against the threat of an escalation of broader conflict in the region. The technical picture also leaves the way open for further decline unless major support levels trigger fresh buying interest. Gold lingers under pressure from a hawkish Fed and firm US Dollar, on course for weekly losses. Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty should cap downside, but technical pressure remains. • Gold price under strain from Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause. • US Dollar strengthens, diminishing demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. • Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven demand. • Trade uncertainty rises ahead of the July 9 deadline for U.S. tariffs. • Fed forecasts two rate cuts by the end of 2025, capping gold potential. • Technicals signal further downside to the $3,300 support level. • Resistance at $3,375 and $3,400, with a possible retest of the $3,451 high if mood changes. Gold prices remain under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone that has supported the US Dollar’s strength. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it indicated reduced rate cuts in the future, that dulled investor demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. Such a policy sentiment has outshined some market-friendly factors such as persistent geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties and has held gold on a weaker path during the week. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, increasing world risks are providing a counterweight to bearishness. Mounting tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel have raised regional stability fears, which could attract investor interest back to safe-haven assets. Furthermore, threatened U.S. tariffs and trade policy changes under the Trump administration are introducing new uncertainty into the markets. These considerations may inspire hedge positioning by investors, as the wider risk environment remains extremely fluid. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS XAU/USD has fallen below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which indicates short-term weakness. The price is moving towards significant support close to the lower edge of a short-term uptrend channel, at about the $3,323–$3,322 region. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are weakening, while on hourly charts there is increasing bearish momentum, indicating the possibility of further falls. On the other hand, initial resistance is evident at $3,374–$3,375, followed by $3,400; a prolonged break above this level may lead to a retest of the recent high of around $3,451. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions do not abate and trade uncertainties further increase, gold will likely recapture its safe-haven status, driving fresh purchasing interest. The sustained break above the $3,375 resistance level would then pave the way for a rise towards the $3,400 psychological mark. Should bullish momentum continue to gather pace, the price would revisit the recent high of $3,451, and even target the all-time high of $3,500 in the near future. On the negative side, sustained strength in the US Dollar driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy can continue to put pressure on gold. A break below the $3,323–$3,322 support zone could trigger intensified selling, driving prices towards the $3,300 level. If bearishness persists, the metal can move into a further correction phase, especially if risk mood improves and rate cut hopes are confined.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Back from Two-Month Highs Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty over Fed Policy

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  • June 16, 2025
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Gold prices fell back slightly after hitting almost a two-month high during the Asian session, as a upbeat risk appetite in equity markets took its toll on the safe-haven commodity. In spite of the decline, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran, still provide support for gold. Also, market participants are holding back in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to give new guidance on interest-rate reductions with evidence of easing U.S. inflation. As a moderate gain in the U.S. dollar places a limit on further advancement, overall gold’s downside is circumscribed, technicals indicating that any slide will offer new buying opportunities. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate prognosis, and this may have a strong impact on the U.S. dollar as well as gold prices. • The Israeli-Iran conflict persists in offering safe-haven support to gold amidst general market uncertainty. • Any major movement in the USD, particularly around its recent lows, could have a direct bearing on direction of gold prices. • Major resistance is at the $3,452-$3,500 level, and support around $3,400 and $3,360 levels of the uptrend channel. Gold prices have softened slightly after hitting a two-month high, weighed down by the positive sentiment in Asian equities. Nevertheless, the metal still finds support in heightening Middle Eastern tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors are also eyeing closely the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may give new signals about future interest rate cuts as there were signs of slowing U.S. inflation. Although the U.S. dollar’s modest recovery has limited some of gold’s advances, the downside is still constrained as traders remain jittery in anticipation of major economic and geopolitical events. Gold prices drop back from two-month high as Asian stocks climb, but safe-haven buying continues amidst tensions in the Middle East. FOMC meeting awaited for direction on prospective U.S. interest rate cuts, capping the downside for gold. • Gold prices decline slightly after reaching a two-month high in Asian trading. • Encouraging risk appetite in the equity markets suppresses the safe-haven demand for gold. • Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to underpin gold prices. • Traders tread carefully in anticipation of next week’s FOMC policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to leave the rates unchanged but is likely to indicate future cuts as inflation weakens. • The U.S. dollar gets a modest boost, capping gold’s near-term upside. • Key levels are resistance at $3,452-$3,500 and support at $3,400-$3,360. Gold prices are seeing mild pressure after they hit their highest level in almost two months. The positive mood in the Asian equity markets has somewhat reduced the allure of the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel remains a driving force for investor demand for safer assets. The military skirmishes between the two countries have intensified, with both sides firing at each other, contributing to global market anxiety and sustaining gold in general support. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, attention is turning to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold but investors are seeking clues over potential future cuts after inflation slowed and the economy was shown to have pockets of weakness. The Fed’s guidance will be influential in setting up expectations for the rest of the year, and any dovish sentiments can further impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the $3,400 threshold recently, indicating bullish vigor underpinned by the development of a rising trend channel on short-term charts. Bulls are still in control according to positive oscillators on the daily chart, and resistance is found at the $3,452-$3,453 levels. A distinct breakout above this level could potentially lead to a retest of the all-time high around the $3,500 psychological level. On the other hand, any pullback would likely find firm support around $3,400, and a sustained fall below $3,360 would invalidate the bullish setup, and it could switch the near-term bias towards sellers. FORECAST Should gold be able to break over the recent high in the $3,452-$3,453 region, it would potentially set the stage for a challenge of the psychological $3,500 mark. A convincing move above this obstacle might invite new buying interest and drive prices still higher, potentially continuing the current bullish trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions or a dovish Federal Reserve comment could serve as catalysts for sustained upside momentum. On the negative side, nearest support is seen at the $3,400 level, and subsequent weakness could push gold down towards the $3,360 zone, which is the lower end of the current uptrend channel. A move below this level with some conviction would change market sentiment and attract more selling pressure, potentially creating a more severe correction in the near term.

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Gold

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Falters Below $3,345 as Markets Wait for US CPI Report

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  • June 11, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is moderately higher, holding on to a slightly weaker US Dollar as investors go cautious in anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Although it posted gains, the commodity is encountering strong resistance around the $3,345 area, after a recent retreat from the previous week’s $3,400 top. Market sentiment is still weak following doubt about the sustainability of the US-China trade deal, with potential for further volatility if inflation data next week exceeds expectations. Technically, gold still seems to be in a corrective A-B-C sequence with the ability to test higher levels before continuing its southward trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is keenly observing the next US Consumer Price Index reading, which has the potential to shape inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. • Concern about the longevity of the US-China “framework” accord remains over market sentiment and go-safe-haven demand • Gold is experiencing stiff resistance around the $3,345 level, with further upside limited unless there is a breakthrough. • The ongoing A-B-C corrective phase points toward eventual short-term gains to $3,375 before bearish momentum resumes. Gold prices are trading with a modest positive bias as the US Dollar tapers globally, fueled by investor wariness prior to the highly anticipated US CPI report. XAU/USD, still under pressure below $3,345 resistance, continues to fail to revisit last week’s highs of around $3,400. The subdued market reaction to the US-China trade agreement, owing to its vagueness, contributes to the uncertainty. With inflation numbers set to bring in new signals, traders are being cautious, holding gold in a tight range of consolidation. Gold maintains modest gains as the US Dollar falters in anticipation of significant US CPI numbers. Resistance at $3,345 is holding back further gains, as doubts about the US-China trade agreement have investors in wait-and-see mode. Markets look to inflation numbers for the next move. • Gold (XAU/USD) makes modest gains in the face of widespread US Dollar weakness. • Resistance at $3,345 still caps further up-limits. • Investors are hesitant in anticipation of the release of US CPI. • Doubts surrounding US-China trade deal augment gold’s safe-haven buying. • Technicals indicate an ongoing A-B-C corrective pattern. • Potential short-term price higher towards $3,375 before possible further downswing. • Critical support is at $3,290 and then $3,245. Gold is supported since market players take a defensive approach prior to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The inflation reading is likely to give vital clues regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve going forward. With the uncertainty of price pressure and potential interest rate hikes, investors are shunning big positions, especially in the US Dollar, to provide indirect support to gold. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the newly signed US-China trade deal, presented as a “framework” to ease tensions, has not been able to generate robust market optimism. Insufficient tangible specifics and doubts over the long-term sustainability of the deal have kept the market mood cautious. This prevailing uncertainty continues to drive demand for safe-haven instruments such as gold, with investors seeking cover against possible global economic turbulence. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is in a corrective phase after its pullback from the recent high at around $3,400. Price is forming a narrow range, with resistance at $3,345 capping upside attempts. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is drifting around the neutral 50 level, reflecting indecision among traders. Elliott Wave shows a current A-B-C correction, with potential extension up to the $3,375 zone before any fresh selling momentum. Key support levels at $3,290 and $3,245 could attract buyers if approached. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens, gold may break above current resistance at $3,345. A breakout would potentially clear the way to the $3,375 area, which sits along the reverse trendline and may encourage additional buying interest. Further US Dollar weakness and a softer-than-anticipated US CPI print may serve as the catalyst needed for gold to retest higher prices and move toward last week’s high near $3,400. On the negative side, inability to breach the $3,345 resistance level can result in fresh selling pressure. A drop below near-term support at $3,290 can leave gold vulnerable to further losses, with the subsequent support area at $3,245, seen by past highs and lows. A higher-than-expected US CPI figure or favorable risk sentiment due to geopolitical events can push gold down as appetite for safe-haven assets fades.

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