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Commodities Gold

Gold price Struggles near record highs as USD gains, Fed Rate speculations in focus

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  • February 7, 2025
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The gold price XAU/USD has remained at near record levels but failed to make any real momentum as the US Dollar was slightly higher going into the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Though trade war tensions and a general expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut should keep the precious metal well supported, caution continues to prevail in bullish traders’ camp. Deteriorating US Treasury yields and persisting economic jitters remain supportive of safe-haven gold. However, the technical indicators provide an overbought reading-a precursor to near-term consolidation before an extended move, after which the key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will watch the breach down for further correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next NFP report will dictate the market expectations about the Fed’s rate path and, hence, the USD demand and the gold price direction in the near future. • Multiple Fed rate cuts by 2025 are supporting gold, but strong labor market data could alter this scenario. • Increasing geopolitical risks and retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US goods improve the safe-haven appeal of gold, capping downside risks despite short-term USD strength. • Gold remains near record highs, but RSI signals overbought conditions, with key support at $2,855 and resistance near $2,900 for further momentum. Gold price remains near record highs as investors weigh multiple factors, including the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and escalating US-China trade tensions. While the weakening US Treasury yields and safe-haven demand support gold, a modest USD uptick ahead of key economic data creates short-term uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, signaling a potential consolidation before any further uptrend. Key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will be crucial in determining the next move, while resistance near $2,900 could challenge bullish momentum in the near term. Gold price lingers around record highs due to Fed rate cut expectations and trade tensions, yet it faces strong resistance from a modest USD uptick. Determinative key levels will be for the next step: $2,855 and $2,900. The technical indicators go even further to suggest short-term consolidation. • Gold refuses to hold its ground off the all-time high for a modest USD uptick. • Market speculations of several Fed rate cuts in 2025 support gold’s bullish view even with positive labor market numbers. • The NFP release will influence USD demand and is likely to push gold in one direction or another. • Growing geopolitical tensions, along with China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, will continue to boost gold’s safe-haven status. • Declining bond yields make non-yielding assets, such as gold, more appealing and add more support. • This RSI indication of overbuying could eventually lead to temporary consolidation before entering an extended rise. • Areas of support here are at the levels of $2,855 and $2,800 and resistance is capped near $2,900 for the bulls Gold price in XAU/USD stays almost at all time highs but under pressure due to a slight upside in the USD as investors focus on the NFP from the US. While positive expectations about rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US Treasury yields continue to support the bullish outlook on metal, short-term consolidation seems probable because of technical overbought conditions. Apart from those factors, geopolitical risks, particularly increasing tensions in the US-China trade, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, preventing a more significant downtrend despite some profit-taking. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The price of gold is trading close to record highs due to the expectations of cuts in the Federal Reserve rate and safe-haven demand amid US-China trade tensions. However, a modest increase in the US Dollar ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report has capped the further upside and thus the market sentiment is cautious. The technical indicators are also pointing towards an overbought situation, and a short-term pullback may occur before the next breakout. The important resistance levels are at $2,900 while support at $2,855 and $2,800 will definitely be the make or break situation. Traders are closely observing any significant change in economic data and geopolitical development which will define gold’s price action in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend but faces resistance near the $2,900 level, while key support is seen at $2,855 and $2,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the market is overbought, so the price might enter into short-term consolidation before another breakout. A decisive move above $2,900 will open the way to further growth, while a break below $2,800 will trigger additional selling pressure. Although the moving averages stay aligned in favour of bulls and continue to confirm the overall bullish trend, traders should expect corrections before fresh long positions. FORECAST Gold prices remain in long-term bullish, supported by expected multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, and declining U.S. Treasury yields. If the NFP data does indicate a weakness in the US labor market, it would bode well for gold, potentially pushing prices beyond the key resistance at $2,900. A sustained move above this would open the path for further rallies towards $2,950 and even $3,000 within the next week or so. Furthermore, growing US-China trade tensions and a general sense of economic uncertainty might keep demand pretty high for the yellow metal since investors are still looking for safety from market volatilities. Despite its strong rally, gold faces short-term downside risks due to overbought technical conditions, with the RSI signaling the possibility of a pullback. If the US Dollar strengthens further or NFP data beats expectations, gold could see a correction toward the $2,855 and $2,800 support levels. A decisive break below $2,800 could trigger additional selling pressure, potentially dragging prices toward $2,750 or lower. However, some fundamentals – such as monetary policy by central banks and political uncertainty – would be unlikely to let gold decline sharply and will keep the gold supported in the long term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold hits record high on fears of US-China trade war and Fed rate cut speculations

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  • February 5, 2025
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Gold has reached a fresh all-time high of $2,862 on fears of an intensifying US-China trade war and growing expectations of further cuts in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates. Safe-haven demand continues to remain strong as investors react to China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US and signs of a weakening US labor market. This would further push down the US dollar, further propelling gold upwards, although President Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico does take a bit off the edge from risk. With the breakout above $2,800 despite technical conditions that show overbought, traders still have plenty of room for a higher run-up. Today will be more on US economic releases such as ADP employment and ISM Services PMI while Friday’s NFP report is highly anticipated. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold reached a high of $2,862 from US-China trade war fears and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, solidifying high safe haven demand. • Potential Fed rate cuts and weaker US labor market data kept the USD under pressure, resulting in further bullish momentum for XAU/USD. • Uncertainty persisted following China’s retaliatory tariffs on US imports; otherwise, gold prices would have collapsed in the face of Trump’s temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico. • Investors will look at US ADP employment data, ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for the immediate direction of the gold price. Gold has reached a record $2,862 as investors take shelter from increasing US-China trade war tensions and expectations of more Federal Reserve rate cuts. The softening US labor market, as marked by the decline in job openings, has continued to ignite rumors for further monetary relief, pressing down on the US currency and pushing up demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. While risk aversion remained slightly subdued after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, China’s retaliatory tariffs kept uncertainty elevated in the market. Traders now await key economic reports, including the US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report expected to influence gold’s short-term trajectory. Despite the overbought RSI signaling caution, technical support near $2,830 and $2,800 suggests potential buying opportunities, reinforcing the metal’s bullish momentum. Gold prices surged to a record high of $2,862 amid US-China trade war fears and Fed rate cut expectations. Weak US labor market data pressured the USD, boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal. Traders now await key economic reports, with technical support near $2,830 and $2,800 signaling potential buying opportunities. • Gold price hit an all-time peak of $2,862 amid escalating US-China trade war concerns and safe-haven demand. • The USD has come under pressure as the Fed has reduced its expectations on the fed rate cut, coupled with the slowdown in the US labor market. • China’s imposition of tariffs on imports from the US intensified trade tensions, which bolstered demand for gold as an investment against uncertainty. • A brief reprieve of US tariffs on Canada and Mexico eased risk concerns but failed to dent gold’s strong bullish sentiment. • Investors are keeping an eye on the US ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for market-moving signals. • Overbought RSI calls for caution, but strong support near $2,830 and $2,800 indicates continued buying interest in gold. • The breakout above $2,800 confirms the upward trend of gold, and investors are looking for further gains amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Gold prices have touched fresh all-time highs at $2,862 as investors run to safety amid growing US-China trade war fears and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US imports have recently heightened their concerns over economic instability in the global economy and are pushing up demand for this yellow metal as a safe haven. Moreover, softer US labor market indicators, such as the job openings, have created an expectation that the Fed might maintain its dovish stance with monetary policy easing. This, in turn, has exerted downward pressure on the US dollar, and therefore gold has further strengthened its bullish trend. Though Trump has offered some relief by temporarily suspending tariffs on Canada and Mexico, this hasn’t dented the appeal of gold in a risk-averse scenario. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Traders are now closely watching upcoming economic data, including the US ADP employment report and ISM Services PMI, for short-term market direction. However, the focus remains on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Fed’s rate decision and, consequently, gold prices. From a technical perspective, the overbought RSI signals a potential pullback, but strong support near $2,830 and $2,800 suggests buying interest remains intact. The recent break above the $2,800 level further enhances the bullish direction, as traders expect more rise in the coming days due to uncertainty in world markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now in a firm uptrend as it has taken out the main resistance level at $2,800. As such, its bullish trend remains intact. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is overbought on both the daily and the hourly charts. There is strong support seen close to the areas of $2,830 and $2,800 that could work as a buying zone in case prices fall back. A strong move above $2,862 could open doors for further upsides toward $2,900 whereas breaks below $2,800 might trigger deeper retracement toward the $2,772 support zone. Traders must monitor price action at these important levels and soon-to-be released economic data to confirm the continuation of the trend. FORECAST The robust bullish momentum that gold has must be taken advantage of, given the persistence of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The US-China trade war rages on while expectations of a further cut by the Federal Reserve in interest rates continue to bolster the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. If gold manages to stay above that important $2,800 key support level, then the possibility of breaking through to a level around $2,900 increases. Further upside can also come in due to the softness in the labor market,

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls from Record Highs as USD Strength and Market Uncertainty Take Hold

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  • February 4, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its all-time high amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and improved economic data. While Trump’s three-month tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada gives the market hope, concern for the bigger picture still has his broader trade policies and the inflationary impact sustaining gold as a safe haven. Even on near-term consolidation, the overall trend remains bullish, with strong supports around $2,773-2,772 going to limit the downward moves. Investors remain cautious ahead of US economic data releases, which could influence both the USD and gold’s trajectory. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold loses ground from records as a resurgent US dollar and rising Treasury yields cap near-term upside potential for the yellow metal. • Fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs and their implications on inflation will continue to prop up gold as a safe-haven asset even as US-Mexico-Canada relations stabilize. • A dovish yet cautious Fed cuts, fueled by solid economic statistics, supports the USD, curtailing gold’s short-term bullish prospects. • Support lies at $2,773-2,772 with resistance at $2,830. A breakout would determine the course to be chosen for gold amid increasing market uncertainty. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats off record high; strength US Dollar, surging yields in Treasury weigh on momentum, as Trump’s timed tariff pause on Mexico and Canada bolsters market confidence, but overall worries for trade policies and a runaway inflation scenario continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts have further strengthened the USD, limiting gold’s immediate upside. However, key support at $2,773-2,772 is expected to cushion any downside, while a break above $2,830 could reignite bullish momentum. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming US economic data, which could influence gold’s trajectory. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its record high as a stronger US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields limit gains. Concerns over Trump’s trade policies and inflation support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Key levels at $2,773-2,772 provide support, while a breakout above $2,830 could signal further upside. • XAU/USD retreats from its all-time peak as a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weigh on bullish momentum. • The temporary suspension of Mexico-Canada tariffs provides a boost to market confidence, but overall trade policy fears and inflation worries keep the safe-haven appeal of gold locked in place. • Strong US economic data and the Fed’s gentle approach to cuts further support the USD, making gold less appealing in the near term. • Gold remains supported around $2,773-2,772; any drop below this could extend declines toward $2,755 and $2,725. • Bulls must overcome this level in order to get back on an uptrend and a successful breakout could propel gold to even more significant targets. • JOLTS job openings and factory orders reports, the next few days, will shape both the action of the USD and gold • Despite near-term consolidation, gold is in an uptrend as inflation worries and global economic uncertainty weigh. The US Dollar’s resurgence, which has been coupled with rebounding Treasury bond yields and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, is leading to a pullback in the gold price from its record high. Although President Trump’s move to temporarily halt tariffs on Mexico and Canada boosted investor confidence, overall concerns regarding trade wars and inflation remain. Strong US economic data, including a rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and inflation indicators, has further strengthened the greenback, making gold less attractive in the short term. However, gold remains well-positioned as a hedge against inflationary pressures, limiting the downside and keeping the overall bullish trend intact. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s near-term price action suggests consolidation, with key support around the $2,773-2,772 region. Any breakdown beneath this point would be followed by fresh declines toward $2,755 and then conceivably to $2,725. On the upside, resistance at $2,830—Monday’s record high—is the final hurdle in the way of further advances. In the case of renewed bullish momentum, an extension of the rally from December’s $2,583 low might see prices rise. Market players are closely watching the upcoming US economic data, such as JOLTS job openings and factory orders, which may give further direction for both the USD and gold’s next move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase after hitting its all-time high. The key support levels are at $2,773-2,772. A breakdown below this zone could extend losses toward $2,755 and further to the $2,725-$2,720 region. However, the bigger picture trend is still positive, and each dip will only attract buying. On the way up, near-term resistance rests at $2,830 – the recent peak – and if it breaks convincingly above here, the momentum could get fired up again with a view towards new highs. The RSI is overbought, meaning a short-term pullback into the next leg higher is quite possible. Traders will be closely monitoring price action around the important levels for possible trades. FORECAST XAU/USD price in gold keeps a positive scenario despite the short-term consolidation and still enjoys a key level resistance area at $2,830 as an important breakthrough. If the spot above this level can be sustained, the new rally towards $2,850 is expected with further continuation towards the psychological level of $2,900. The continued inflation fears, as well as uncertainty about US trade policies, could maintain demand for gold as a hedge. Also, any dovish shift by the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected US economic data will help support gold’s upside momentum. The yellow metal remains well-positioned for further gains in the medium term given the broader uptrend from December’s swing low at $2,583. Although gold has a bullish structure, the upside is capped by downside risks, mainly fueled by a rising US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields. If selling pressure increases, the first layer of defense for gold is $2,773-2,772, which is a crucial support area. A break below this level will expose the commodity to further

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Commodities Gold

Gold price recovery: Steadying into risk-off sentiment and trade tariff concerns

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  • February 3, 2025
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The gold price bounced back from its early slide as investors seek safety in the precious metal amid global uncertainty. The price climbed close to the $2,800 mark. Fears over US President Trump’s new trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have continued to fuel concerns of inflation and a slowing economy, further supporting the appeal of gold as a hedge. However, a strengthening US Dollar, fueled by speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, will continue to cap the upside potential for gold. As traders wait for key US economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, gold’s next moves will depend on whether it can maintain its momentum past the $2,800 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • New tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could increase inflation, driving more investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. • The advance in the USD can put a top on gold upside, with continued strength in greenback through anticipation of further rate cuts from the Fed. • The next important resistance on gold prices would come at around $2,800. On breaking down, further fall will come into play, with a first significant support near $2,772. • US ISM Manufacturing PMI, coming this week, would be of extreme importance, since the numbers coming out from that might set direction for gold also. Gold prices are moving through a tough environment at the moment, as concerns over increasing inflation and the economic impact of US President Trump’s new trade tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico underpin them. The tariffs have increased the apprehension of the slowdown in the economy, thereby making gold a safe haven to invest in. However, the strengthening US Dollar, which is gaining on expectations of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may cap gold’s further upside. The traders are also keeping a close eye on key support levels around $2,772 and resistance near $2,800 as they await the release of important US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, to determine gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices are recovering, driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and rising inflation, which bolster its safe-haven appeal. However, a strong US Dollar and upcoming US economic data, particularly the ISM PMI, could limit further gains. Traders are watching key levels around $2,800 for signs of continued bullish momentum. • Gold has climbed back toward $2,800 after an intraday dip, supported by risk-off sentiment and concerns over economic fallout. • New tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico increase inflationary pressures, making gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation. • The USD continues to rise, supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which may cap the upside for gold. • Trade war fears and geopolitical tensions continue to fuel demand for gold, supporting its upward movement. • Gold is finding support around $2,772 and if broken below, this level will likely lead to another decline toward $2,755 and $2,720. • Gold faces an immediate resistance in the $2,790-$2,800 area, with a next major hurdle near the all-time high of $2,817. • Traders would be waiting for the US ISM Manufacturing PMI that will give an update on the economic health status and its impact on the direction of the gold price. Gold prices have recovered some lost ground lately, and are climbing back toward the $2,800 mark as market sentiment remains dominated by concerns over US President Trump’s new trade tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. The tariffs are feared to fuel inflation, which in turn fuels gold’s appeal as a hedge against potential economic fallout. The trade war concerns also curb the risk appetite of investors, pushing them to move towards the safe haven status offered by gold. However, while these factors remain in favor of gold, the strengthening US Dollar, which gained momentum due to speculations of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, would cap the precious metal’s rally. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Key technical levels remain under close attention, and a support level that has been quite pivotal is at $2,772. If this support breaks, then gold may witness additional falls toward $2,755 or $2,720. Resistance may come in around $2,790-$2,800. This all-time high of $2,817 presents a formidable obstacle. This week, crucial US economic indicators will be announced, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, with traders now awaiting more evidence regarding the near-term direction for the economy. It’s still a careful market, for any change in the macro can take gold both ways. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis on gold shows a few key points of support and resistance that are going to set the short-term price action of gold. Here, gold is testing the lower support level at $2,772, which has been the point of a lot of play in its price action. Breaking below this point could take the price further downwards to $2,755 or $2,720. On the upside, immediate resistance is $2,790-$2,800, and all-time high around $2,817 is a significant hurdle. Technical indicators such as moving averages and oscillators begin to suggest a continuation of the uptrend as long as gold can hold above its key support. Traders pay careful attention to these levels and wait for potential breaks or reversals. FORECAST Gold may continue its upward trend if geopolitical risks and trade tariff concerns continue to exist, as these will fuel demand for safe-haven assets. As the US Dollar remains strong, it may push gold into a resistance zone between $2,790 and $2,800, potentially leading to new highs if market uncertainty grows further. Moreover, any bad news about inflation or economic stability may further help gold to be a hedge again, and hence the uptrend stays alive. So if gold takes out the resistance level of $2,800 and sustains an upward course, the next stop may be the all-time high at around $2,817. On the flip side, if the US Dollar continues to rise as it expects that the Federal Reserve would delay its

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Near Record High: Market Awaits US PCE Price Index for Next Move

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  • January 31, 2025
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Gold prices have reached an all-time high of $2,800 as geopolitical tensions, trade war concerns, and expectations of rising inflation under US President Donald Trump’s policies continue to drive the price up. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and rebounding US Treasury yields have capped further gains, as traders remain cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While sustained strength above $2,800 could trigger further bullish momentum, technical indicators suggest the possibility of a short-term consolidation or pullback. Key support levels lie between $2,773 and $2,720, with any break below these points potentially signaling a deeper correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders await the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights into future monetary policy and gold’s next movement. • The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates and its cautious approach to rate cuts could impact gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. • The tariff threats from Trump and the geopolitical events, such as Russia’s military actions, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold in uncertain markets. • A sustained break above $2,800 is likely to add more bullish strength, while the key support levels at $2,773 and $2,720 are likely to cap the downside risks. Gold prices continue to hover close to record highs, and the US PCE Price Index is being closely watched for further market direction. The stance of the Federal Reserve remaining hawkish, along with steady interest rates, means that its influence continues to deprive the precious metal of further upside. However, both global geopolitical unrest and US President Donald Trump’s announcement of trade tariffs have sustained gold’s safe haven appeal. Technically, any break above $2,800 could provide substantial upside momentum, while key support levels at $2,773 and $2,720 could act as price stabilizers during a pullback. In expectation of market movement based on tomorrow’s US PCE Price Index, gold sits at a hair’s breadth off record levels today. Geopolitical tensions further drive the urge for safe heavens, but from a technical angle, two figures stand between trading and those barriers: $2,800, and $2,773 • Gold tops all-time, at $2,800 – Inflation Fear, Geopolitical Tension Boosts Spot Price. • Release of US PCE Price Index, which happens to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide clues regarding future monetary policy. • The Fed remains tight-fisted and will not reduce the interest rates, hinting at no hurry in slashing borrowing costs, thus restricts the further upside in gold. • Trump’s tariff threats to Mexico, Canada and BRICS nations are creating uncertainty in the markets that increases gold as a safe haven commodity. • Russia’s military mobilizations and worldwide tensions are going to drive demand for gold as an avenue for hedging uncertainty. • A sustained move above $2,800 is set to trigger further upward steam, while key support levels at $2,773 and then $2,720 are crucial. • The modest recovery of US Treasury bond yields and US Dollar’s strength put slight pressure on this upward movement. Gold prices have hit an all-time high of $2,800, as the metal benefits from safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats on Mexico, Canada, and BRICS nations added to market uncertainty, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability. Additionally, investors are closely monitoring the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights into future monetary policy. While the Fed has maintained a hawkish stance by keeping interest rates steady, traders remain cautious, waiting for fresh economic data before making significant moves.  XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold remains well-positioned for further gains if it sustains strength above the $2,800 mark. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests overbought conditions, indicating a possible short-term consolidation or pullback. Key support levels are seen at $2,773 and $2,720, which could provide stability in case of a downturn. Meanwhile, a stronger US Dollar and a modest recovery in Treasury bond yields could put slight pressure on gold’s rally. Traders will now look for the US economic data and other global events that will determine gold’s next direction in the market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a strong uptrend, as the price continues to hold around its all-time high of $2,800. A break above this level decisively may lead to more bullish momentum and open the way for higher resistance levels. However, the daily Relative Strength Index is moving toward overbought territory and could see some short-term consolidation or pullback before another leg higher. Support zones are around $2,773 and $2,720, where buyers might step in to defend the uptrend. A break below these levels may see increased selling pressure, dragging gold down toward $2,700 or even lower. Traders are now watching price action closely to determine whether gold can sustain its bullish breakout or undergo a temporary correction. FORECAST Gold’s bullish momentum is intact and still holds above its record high at $2,800. If this current price action above the major psychological level can be held in support, further buying interest might appear, pushing gold on to the next resistance levels available at $2,820 and $2,850. Continued geopolitical tensions, worries over the trade policies of Trump, and anticipation of inflationary pressure would be the forces driving safe haven demand, hence further supporting the upward move. If the next US PCE Price Index report hints at an inflationary environment, gold might gain renewed attention as a hedge, and therefore strengthen its stance above the $2,800 mark. A weaker US Dollar along with sinking Treasury yields would further fuel the rally and drive it toward a potential test of $2,900 in the short term. Although gold has rallied convincingly during this time frame, weakness can be seen when these markets are overbought and when interference is noticed from external markets. The Relative Strength Index is nearing the overbought zone, which might usher a short-term correction or consolidation. If gold does not

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Continues Rising, With Potential to Rise Further, Amid Economic Uncertainty and Declining US Bond Yields

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  • January 30, 2025
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Gold prices are trading near weekly highs above $2,765 as it continues its steady climb, driven by declining US bond yields and increasing concerns over the economic impact of former President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs. While the hawkish pause by the Federal Reserve retains a semblance of stability in the US Dollar, sliding Treasury yields and expectations of future policy easing lend support to the non-yielding metal. Investors remain cautious as the market awaits key economic events, which include the European Central Bank (ECB) decision and the US Q4 GDP report. As for technicals, the cue of moving above the resistance zone of $2,772-$2,773 could provide room for a higher move toward $2,786 and even the record high of $2,790. However, the $2,745 support break below could attract some selling pressures, which is more likely at $2,730-$2,725. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve’s rate hold puts some immediate easing before policy but keeps the US Dollar resilient enough to cap the uptrend of the Gold. • Sliding US Treasury yields weaken the US Dollar, enhancing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. • Potential economic fallout from Trump’s tariff plans increases market volatility, driving safe-haven demand for Gold as investors assess global trade risks. • A breakout above $2,772-$2,773 could push Gold toward all-time highs, while a drop below $2,745 may trigger further downside. Gold prices continue upward, driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, sliding US bond yields, and safe-haven demand amid worries over Donald Trump’s trade policies. The Fed’s hawkish pause keeps the US Dollar relatively strong, thereby limiting immediate upside potential for gold, but future policy easing and lower interest rates continue to buoy bullish sentiment. Investors are careful to follow the key technical levels and, in the event of a breakdown above $2,772-$2,773, prices may move up towards all-time highs at $2,790. However, a fall below $2,745 could be seen carrying on further downward pressure. Therefore, the next price move will largely depend on the upcoming European Central Bank’s decisions and US economic releases. Gold prices remain strong amid economic uncertainty, sliding US bond yields, and trade concerns. A breakout above $2,772 could push prices higher, while support near $2,745 remains crucial. Investors await key economic data for further direction. • XAU/USD trades above $2,765, supported by declining US bond yields and safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady keeps the US Dollar strong, limiting Gold’s upside potential. • Sliding US Treasury yields weaken the USD making Gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset. • Worries about an economic backlash from the proposed Trump tariffs boost safe-haven demand for Gold. • Breaking above $2,772-$2,773 may take Gold up to the $2,786-$2,790 area, very close to its all-time highs. • A slide below $2,745 may provide the catalyst for further declines, strong supportive below $2,725-$2,730. • Investors focus on the ECB policy decision and US Q4 GDP report for further market direction. Gold prices continue to trade near weekly highs, benefiting from sliding US bond yields and safe-haven demand amid growing economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause has kept interest rates steady, supporting the US Dollar and limiting Gold’s gains. However, fears of the economic implications of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and his calls for lower interest rates have further fueled expectations of future monetary easing, adding to Gold’s appeal. Declining US Treasury yields have also further weakened the USD, making the non-yielding yellow metal an attractive investment option. Investors are currently closely following the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision and the release of US Q4 GDP later today for more market direction. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold is still strong at current levels near weekly highs while investors continue reacting to economic uncertainty, falling US bond yields, and trade policy concerns. The hawkish Federal Reserve stance has provided some support to the US Dollar. However, with expectations of further rate cuts and inflationary pressures, the upside momentum of Gold remains favored. A breakout above the $2,772-$2,773 resistance zone would push prices to $2,786 and test the all-time high of $2,790. However, if Gold is unable to sustain its gains, a break below $2,745 could fuel further declines. Support could then be found around $2,725-$2,730. Market participants are focusing on the major economic events, such as a policy decision by the European Central Bank and US PCE inflation data, which will define the next move for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains bullish as it broke above its major resistance zone of $2,720-$2,725. The next major sell-off area is at $2,772-$2,773, and a successful breakout above that may send the prices to the range of $2,786-$2,790 and close to all-time highs. Positive oscillators on the daily chart support the continuation of the rally. On the downside, initial support is placed at $2,745 with stronger support placed in the area of $2,725-$2,730. A move below these will continue to see selling pressure accelerating, and eventually, prices are expected to plummet to $2,707 and then to $2,684. Market participants will be focused on market sentiment and key events in the economic calendar to gauge the next directional move in the price of Gold. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to move higher as bullish momentum is further supported by the decline in US bond yields, economic uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. A breakout above the key resistance at $2,772-$2,773 could open the door for an extended rally toward $2,786, followed by the all-time high near $2,790. If buying pressure continues, a further push beyond the $2,800 psychological level could trigger fresh bullish sentiment, reinforcing Gold’s well-established uptrend. Also, there is an expectation of further future monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, which can be the reasons for further surge in Gold’s price in the future sessions. Yet, the bullish view cannot fully remove the vulnerability of Gold towards possible downside corrections. If the price fails to hold above $2,772, it might

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Under Pressure Amid USD Recovery: Will the Downside Hold?

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  • January 27, 2025
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Gold prices continue to be soft as the US Dollar stages a modest recovery from its one-month low, which has dampened the appeal of the precious metal. Renewed trade war concerns, triggered by President Trump’s announcement of emergency tariffs on Colombia, have weighed on risk appetite, providing some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD pair. Meanwhile, expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and declining US Treasury yields may cap any significant USD gains, limiting further downside for Gold. Traders are closely monitoring key levels around $2,750, with support at $2,736 and resistance near $2,772, to gauge the next directional move amid ongoing market volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • Strength of US Dollar is recovering from one-month low, weighing upon the attractiveness of Gold and market sentiment. • Trade tensions due to the reinstatement of tariffs on Colombia by Trump may dent risk appetite and see Gold have stronger safe-haven appeal • Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 might curb gains in USD and will be highly instrumental in the decision of near-term movement of Gold. • Monitor Gold’s key support at $2,736 and resistance near $2,772 as breaks could indicate the next significant directional move. US Dollar recovers modestly and is driven by renewed trade tensions after President Trump announced tariffs on Colombian imports. This has subdued risk appetite and indirectly supported Gold as a safe haven. Meanwhile, market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US Treasury yields might cap further upside in the USD, thereby capping further declines in Gold. Traders now await the technical levels, support at $2,736 and resistance at $2,772, and a breach here would set the stage for the next major move in XAU/USD. The price of gold faces selling pressure from the recovery in USD, driven by renewed trade tensions and tariff announcements. However, Fed rate cut speculations and the slide in US bond yields could limit further declines. The levels to watch include the support at $2,736 and resistance around $2,772. • Gold prices are pressed by a moderate recovery in the US Dollar from its one-month low. • Trade war jitters resurfaced through the imposition of tariffs on Colombian imports by Trump. These weigh on market psychology and indirectly support Gold. • Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 limit further strength in USD and thus act as a cushion to Gold prices. • Resolving US Treasury yields declines also support the safe-haven pair XAU/USD. • Key support for Gold is near $2,736, and resistance is around $2,772, critical to establishing future price direction. • Investors continue to be conservative, but remain bullish on Gold given the current economic uncertainty across the world and risk aversion. • Traders look forward to the US economic reports Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence Index to garner further market direction. Gold continues to come under pressure as the US Dollar experiences a slight rally and bounces off its one-month low. Renewed trade tensions after President Trump announced emergency tariffs on Colombian imports are heightening concerns about the possibility of a rise in trade wars, and the recovery is being fueled by this. The market sentiment shift has weighed on riskier assets while offering indirect support to Gold as a safe-haven asset. While expectations of two potential Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year and declining US Treasury yields are capping further USD gains, at least keeping a lid on the downside for Gold prices. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The price of Gold is trading around $2,750 with critical support levels near $2,736 and resistance around $2,772. This means if there is a breakdown below the support zone, the prices are likely to take further downside motion, possibly up to the mark of $2,700, whereas a breakdown in resistance would be a positive catalyst for its retest around the all-time high near $2,790. Market participants are also focused on key economic data, Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Confidence Index for other leads on US economic outlook that could influence the prices of Gold. As ongoing global uncertainties prevail, Gold remains an anchor for investors in the shifting risk appetite climate. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is at an important zone and finds strong support around $2,736. Its immediate resistance of importance is $2,772. If it breaks decisively below the level of support, further downward momentum towards $2,700, then likely to the significant support of $2,665-$2,662 is possible. On the other hand, a breakout above the resistance zone might open the gates for a retest of the all-time high near $2,790. The $2,800 mark shall be a very important psychological level. Momentum indicators seem to caution with Gold’s retracement from the recent highs also coinciding with overbought conditions. It is recommended to keep an eye on these levels as they would most likely guide the next directional move for XAU/USD. FORECAST The upside remains open for Gold if it is able to push through the $2,772 resistance level. That would more likely be supportive of bullish momentum to drive the prices toward the October high at $2,790 and the psychological barrier at $2,800. Among supporting factors include the expectation that the Federal Reserve may cut its rates, thus weakening the US Dollar, as well as the lower US bond yields that make Gold a more appealing non-yielding asset. Renewed geopolitical tensions or increasing trade war risks can be another factor pushing investors to safe-haven assets, providing additional fuel for a rally in Gold prices. On the flip side, a sustained break below the support of $2,736 can be used as a possible deeper loss signal for Gold. This is with a test of the $2,700 level, and if selling pressure intensifies, a decline toward the $2,665-$2,662 support area. A stronger US Dollar, in the wake of surprising positive economic data or diminished expectations for Fed rate cuts, may further expedite this downtrend. And diminished trade tensions or improved risk appetite could diminish demand for safe havens, also putting more

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Commodities Gold

Gold Faces Pressure as Risk Appetite Grows; CPI Data in Focus for Market Direction

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  • January 15, 2025
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Gold prices are currently under pressure as a “risk-on” market sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Expectations for a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts have driven flows away from the precious metal, while softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data adds further uncertainty. Traders are on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index report, which could dramatically alter the market’s perception of Fed policy going forward. A better-than-expected CPI might put a damper on gold’s rally, while weaker-than-expected data might add more fuel to the fire in terms of gold prices. From a technical perspective, gold is still in a consolidation pattern, with major resistance levels at $2,675 and $2,700, and significant support at $2,640 and $2,615. The near-term direction of gold may be dictated by the outcome of the CPI report. KEY LOOKOUTS • The CPI report will drive Fed rate cut expectations and the direction of gold. • A breakout above $2,675 may lead to further upside toward $2,726. • Support zones at $2,640 and $2,615 may prevent a deeper downside. • A risk-on sentiment may cap demand for gold and limit upside momentum. Gold prices closely correlate with market events that will be taking place soon, the US CPI report being one of the most crucial factors in expectations of future Fed rate cuts. If the data for the CPI comes in better than expected, it may affect the bullish sentiment in gold; on the contrary, weaker data may support additional price gains. Key technical levels are also focused on, and resistance is near $2,675 and $2,700, while support lies around $2,640 and $2,615. Moreover, the general market’s risk appetite will play a role in the next direction, as the risk-on environment might suppress demand for gold and cap its rally. The factors above need to be closely monitored by traders in the near future. The next US CPI report will be decisive for the outlook of gold’s price, where resistance will be found at $2,675 and support at $2,640. Market sentiment and expectations for Fed rate cuts will also guide gold’s direction. KEY POINTS Gold has been under pressure due to changing market sentiment from risk-off to risk-on. As a result, the safe haven demand of the yellow metal is being dampened. Market participants are waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) that could have a big impact on the expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. If CPI is stronger than expected, this may make the Fed sound a bit hawkish, which will send gold down. If it is weaker than expected, this will be helpful for gold in its bullishness. Technically, gold faces strong resistance around $2,675 and $2,700. If the price breaks through these barriers, it is most likely to target the December high of $2,726. On the flip side, significant support zones are present around $2,640 and $2,615. In case gold comes under downward pressure, these levels may serve as a floor. Deeper technical factors aside, more significant factors are at play here as well. Market expectations have been adjusted to only one Fed rate cut in 2025, which in turn is limiting the appeal of gold as an alternative asset. A prevailing risk-on sentiment where investors are preferring riskier assets could limit gold’s upside. Geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties may however provide some support for gold as a safe-haven investment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the midline, hence remaining in a bullish consolidation phase. Furthermore, gold continues being a “buy-the-dips” trade. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is consolidating in a bullish phase after the breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern, and the RSI of 14 days continues to print above the midline around 56. The market exhibits the sentiment of “buy the dips.” It still has key resistance at $2,675 and $2,700. Any sustained break above these could signal further upside toward the December 12 high of $2,726. On the negative side, strong support is found at $2,640, a critical zone marked by multiple moving averages and the triangle convergence. A drop below this level could lead to further declines, with $2,615 acting as the next key support area. The technical indicators suggest that gold could continue to consolidate or push higher, depending on how these key levels hold. XAUUSD Daily Price CHART Sources: TradingView, Prepared by ELLYANA FORECAST Short-term gold price forecasts are highly dependent on key technical levels and some upcoming economic data, most importantly the US CPI report. If gold can break and hold above the $2,675-$2,700 resistance zone, we may expect further upside momentum towards the December high of $2,726. A sustained break above $2,700 could open the door for a bullish run and potentially target higher levels. However, if gold breaks down, not above the resistance barrier, but is subjected to selling pressures, it will be tested to the strong support zones around $2,640 and $2,615. Below that, at $2,640, a deeper correction seems highly likely, with $2,615 being the next serious level of support. Overall market sentiment, from the risk-on mood to the Federal Reserve’s stance, will also play a large role in setting the direction for gold. If inflation data is weaker than expected, this could help push gold higher. Stronger data might send it lower.

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