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Gold Bounces Near Historic Highs on Safe-Haven Demand and Dovish Fed Projections Fueling XAU/USD

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  • October 2, 2025
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Gold is trading steadily near historic highs, underpinned by safe-haven demand during the current US government shutdown and increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. XAU/USD touched a new all-time high around $3,895 recently and remains above significant support at $3,850 levels, with dip-buying maintaining positive momentum. Weaker US economic figures, muted Treasury yields, and a weaker US Dollar continue to add support to the precious metal demand, as investors await more shutdown news and Fed policy signals to chart the next course of action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Safe-haven buying gains traction as the shutdown postpones major economic data releases, such as Nonfarm Payrolls. • Markets place almost 99% probability of an October rate cut, further sustaining Gold’s bullish trend. • Robust demand remains above $3,850, with further support at $3,800, sustaining the uptrend. • Dull US Dollar and soft Treasury yields still support upside potential for XAU/USD. Gold (XAU/USD) is near record highs as investors seek safe-haven assets in the face of the extended US government shutdown and growing hope for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The metal has continued its string of gains, drawing solid support near $3,850 and supported by a weaker US Dollar and subdued Treasury yields. With important economic data releases postponed and uncertainty in the markets growing, dip-buying is still supporting the bull momentum in Gold, keeping the bias skewed to the positive side. Gold trades at record levels near $3,885 on the back of safe-haven buying and dovish expectations for the Fed. The US shutdown, soft economic data, and muted Treasury yields continue to keep the outlook bullish, with good support at $3,850. • Gold trades close to record levels after reaching $3,895 this week. • Safe-haven buying is stronger on account of the continuing US government shutdown. • The US key economic data, such as NFP, is postponed due to the shutdown. • Markets strongly anticipate the Fed to reduce rates in October, with almost 99% likelihood. • US Dollar falls, while Treasury yields continue to be low, enhancing Gold’s attractiveness. • Strong technical support at $3,850 and $3,800 caps risk on the downside. • Bullish momentum intact as dip-buying sends XAU/USD soaring. Gold remains steadfast close to record highs as investors bet on safety in the face of growing United States uncertainty. The current government shutdown has interfered with the release of vital economic information, increasing market jitters and supporting safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Meanwhile, softer US private sector jobs and delays in critical reports such as Nonfarm Payrolls have provided a backdrop in which investors opt for the security of Gold over riskier investments. XAU/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView Another strong influence fueling momentum is increasing belief that the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate reductions this month. Reduced interest rates generally cause non-yielding assets such as Gold to become more appealing, while a weakening US Dollar also increases its appeal. With Treasury yields calm and global trade tensions also on the table, sentiment is supportive for Gold, keeping it in the spotlight as one of the most popular assets during uncertain times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is well-supported at levels above the $3,850 zone, which has been a firm floor for the buying side. The $3,800 psychological level also adds some support, as moving averages are converging in this region to provide further strength to the support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains high in the vicinity of 68, indicating high bullish momentum, but just below the overbought zones. While the Average Directional Index (ADX) has declined to the vicinity of 27, showing less trend strength, the overall picture remains positive as long as the prices remain above $3,800, with the path of least resistance remaining to the upside. FORECAST As long as Gold remains able to draw safe-haven buying during the US government shutdown and prospects of a rate cut by the Fed, XAU/USD may move above its recent high of $3,895. A prolonged break above this level could set the stage towards the $3,920–$3,950 range, where new all-time highs could be reached. Favorable technicals, aided by subdued Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar, support the idea of buyers rushing in on any minor pullbacks, preserving the bullish bias. On the other side, however, if markets notice advances towards closing the shutdown or if economic statistics surprise to the higher side once they are released, Gold can experience some profit-taking. A drop below the $3,850 level of support could precipitate a more serious correction to $3,800, where more solid technical and psychological support exists. A clean break below $3,800 would risk undermining the positive outlook in the short term and pull prices down to $3,750.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Slips as Risk-On Sentiment and USD Uptick Weigh Before US CPI Report

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  • September 11, 2025
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Gold prices dipped on Thursday due to a higher risk-on sentiment across global equities and a slight rise in the US Dollar that prompted profit-taking on the precious metal. Though the safe-haven demand for gold softened as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei set all-time highs, hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week still hold back the downside. Geopolitical tensions, trade-related uncertainty, and political instability in Europe and Asia are also supporting losses, and now traders wait for the US CPI numbers for new direction on monetary policy and gold’s short-term fortunes. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be key to influencing expectations of the Fed’s next rate action. • Markets overwhelmingly expect a September rate cut, and some are factoring in the potential for a jumbo cut. • Increasing dangers of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO intervention, and fresh sanctions can bolster safe-haven demand. • Global equities’ record highs are taking away from gold’s traditional safe-haven status. Gold moves lower on Thursday as market players turn to riskier assets with record gains on world equities and a modest recovery in the US Dollar. The yellow metal is unable to build on its recent advance, although loss is capped by strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week and increased geopolitical tensions. Traders are now focusing on the next US CPI reading for new hints about the Fed’s policy course, which has the potential to deliver the next significant directional catalyst for gold. Gold dips as a firmer risk-on sentiment and a small USD recovery test the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, expectations for Fed rate cuts and the threat of geopolitics will act as a buffer against the downside in advance of the US CPI report. • Gold drifts down on Thursday with risk-on sentiment prevailing across global markets. • All-time highs in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei weaken safe-haven demand. • Slight US Dollar upturn contributes to pressure on gold prices. • Anticipation of rate cuts by the Fed next week caps the downside for the yellow metal. • US CPI report awaited for new policy signals and direction in the markets. • Geopolitical tensions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and fresh sanctions are supportive. •  Technical levels indicate $3,600 as short-term support, with resistance around $3,658–$3,675. Gold is trading cautiously as investors balance a positive risk-on sentiment in global markets with expectations of future Federal Reserve policy easing. All-time records in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei have diminished the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets, leading some to profit-taking in the yellow metal. Meanwhile, recent weakness in US producer price data has underpinned speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates at its policy meeting next week, maintaining gold at bay despite prevailing selling pressure. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from economic signals, geopolitical and political concerns are still in play as far as influencing investor attitudes towards gold. With tensions in the Russia-Ukraine crisis heightened further due to NATO involvement, coupled with an air of uncertainty within France and Japan, the safe-haven appeal of the metal is still emphasized. Trade tensions such as tariffs and sanctions enforced by the US are another risk component in the broader picture. These considerations are set to maintain gold in the spotlight as investors await the US CPI report for further direction on what the Fed is likely to do next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is displaying indications of short-term consolidation as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels, indicating the possibility of a brief pause or soft correction. Support is close by around the $3,600 mark, with more substantial cushions at $3,580 if selling continues. To the upside, there is resistance at $3,649–$3,658, with a retest of the all-time high at about $3,675 likely if investors are able to push higher. A sustained break above this range would clear the way towards the psychological $3,700 level. FORECAST Gold may pick up again on the upside if the next US CPI report indicates easing inflation, solidifying bets for swift Fed rate cuts. Any validation of gentler price pressures would probably top the US Dollar’s bounce and increase the demand for the non-yielding precious metal. In that case, gold could test its recent highs near $3,675, with the possibility to extend gains towards the $3,700 psychological level. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainties could also sustain bullish conviction. Conversely, solid US CPI readings may temper hopes for rapid Fed policy easing, sparking renewed demand for the US Dollar and suppressing gold prices. The risk-on mood in equity markets may continue to undermine safe-haven inflows into gold. Here, prices would fall towards $3,600, with a steeper decline towards $3,580 if the selling pressure mounts further. Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical concerns should keep a steep corrective fall in check.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Consolidates Below Record Highs as Traders Wait for Key US Labor Market Data

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  • September 4, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating below its all-time high of $3,578.50 as traders take profits and the US Dollar remains firm, tempering recent bullish momentum. Despite the respite, safe-haven demand is supported by softening US Treasury yields, tranquil global bond markets, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. With investor attention now on the ADP Employment report and upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls, labor market data will be crucial in determining near-term direction for Gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • ADP Employment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be instrumental in deciding Gold’s next move. • Markets price in high probability of a September rate cut, supporting safe-haven demand. • A firm Dollar and softening bond yields continue to shape Gold’s short-term path. • Calmer conditions in Japan and the UK lower safe-haven rush but support amid persistent fiscal risks. Gold prices are taking a breather below record highs as investors weigh profit-taking against persistent safe-haven demand. While the US Dollar’s firmness is weighing on sentiment, softer Treasury yields and tranquil global bond markets are helping to cushion the downside. With the Federal Reserve widely anticipated to cut rates in September, attention now shifts to US labor market data, including the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which are poised to guide Gold’s near-term direction. Gold is consolidating below its record high as traders wait for key US labor market data. Softening Treasury yields and Fed rate cut expectations support safe-haven demand, while the US Dollar’s firmness caps upside momentum. • Gold reached a record high of $3,578.50 before consolidating around $3,540. • Profit-taking and a firm US Dollar are weighing on sentiment. • Softening US Treasury yields are helping to cap downside pressure. • Tranquil global bond markets lower safe-haven rush but still support Gold. • Markets are pricing in a September Fed rate cut, supporting bullish bias. • Investor attention shifts to ADP Employment data and Nonfarm Payrolls for labor market cues. • Key support is at $3,500–3,450, while resistance remains at the record high of $3,578. Gold is taking a breather after a record-breaking run that pushed prices to new record highs, with investors looking to the next US labor market data for direction. The yellow metal remains supported by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, as cheaper borrowing makes it more attractive as a safe-haven asset. Softer global bond markets and declining US Treasury yields have also supported sentiment, keeping bullion demand well supported despite light profit-taking. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView The overall environment for Gold remains supportive as economic uncertainty, global trade tensions, and fiscal credibility concerns in major economies continue to underpin its status as a risk hedge. With markets already fully pricing in policy easing from the Fed, investors are now looking to the ADP Employment report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which are expected to dictate the direction of Gold’s next move. Meanwhile, the safe-haven theme continues to underpin the precious metal. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its record high of $3,578.50, with momentum indicators pointing to a potential cooling phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels above 70 but is trending lower, indicating room for a pause or pullback. Prices are also testing the upper Bollinger Band at $3,543, indicating stretched bullish momentum and the potential for a retreat to the 20-day moving average at $3,398 if profit-taking intensifies. Immediate support is at $3,511 and $3,500, while resistance is at the $3,578 peak, with a breakout opening the way to the $3,600 level. FORECAST If US labor market data is softer than anticipated, Gold may regain strong bullish momentum as hopes for a September Fed rate cut intensify. A sustained break above the record high of $3,578 would open the way for a move to the psychological $3,600 level, with further potential for upside if safe-haven demand picks up pace amid continued global economic and fiscal uncertainties. Conversely, more robust US jobs data or a more resilient US Dollar may provoke more aggressive profit-taking, sending Gold lower in the near term. Critical support levels are at $3,511 and the $3,500 psychological level, with a further drop potentially reaching the $3,450 area. A breakdown below these levels could indicate a more extensive correction, although the long-term bullish bias is still in place.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Fails to Hold Above $3,500 on Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitics

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  • September 2, 2025
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Gold continued its streak of gains to a new record high of more than $3,500 on rising bets of a September rate cut by the Fed, ongoing safe-haven demand, and escalating geopolitical tensions. The metal, however, could not find firm acceptance above the important psychological level due to a limited U.S. Dollar recovery and overbought levels dampening upside momentum. Investors now shift their attention to future U.S. macroeconomic statistics, such as the ISM PMI, JOLTS, and Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls report, for new indications on the Fed policy trail and the next gold directional bias. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing market optimism on a September rate cut continues to drive solid buying demand for gold. • Gold finds it hard to gain acceptance above the $3,500 psychological level, with overbought indicators calling for caution. • Russia-Ukraine tensions, Middle East hostilities, and U.S. tariff wars are fueling safe-haven demand. • ISM PMI, JOLTS, ADP jobs report, and Nonfarm Payrolls are some economic indicators that might prescribe the next directional move in gold. Gold is still riding an extremely bullish wave, with expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and ongoing safe-haven flows in the face of global uncertainties. The precious metal briefly touched a record peak above $3,500 but struggled to sustain gains at this psychological level as a modest U.S. Dollar rebound and overbought technical conditions capped further upside. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff disputes remain in focus, keeping demand for gold intact. Investors now await key U.S. economic data releases this week for fresh direction, with particular attention on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Gold reached a new record of over $3,500, boosted by bets on Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand, but was unable to hold gains at the critical level. Future U.S. economic indicators, such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report, will probably decide its future direction. • Gold set a new all-time high at over $3,500 in the Asian session. • Increasing hopes of a September Fed rate cut continue to propel demand. • Safe-haven flows are robust in the face of geopolitical tensions and tariff wars. • The U.S. Dollar’s weak pullback put an end to gold’s upside momentum. • Overbought technical levels warn of caution ahead of further uplift. • Important U.S. economic data releases this week, including NFP, will dictate the next direction. • Support is near $3,440, and resistance is at the $3,500 psychological level. Gold continues to be in the limelight as investors increasingly factor in the possibility of a Federal Reserve cut in interest rates this September, keeping the non-yielding asset in demand. The safe-haven demand for gold has also been strengthened by increased geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and continued uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs. All these have combined to provide a bullish climate for bullion, with market players looking for stability in the face of economic and political instability. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the trend, fears over the Federal Reserve’s independence have joined the fray following recent political meddling and attacks on its leadership. This has further agitated investors, who have gone out looking for refuge in gold. Meanwhile, focus now turns to a string of high-impact U.S. economic data releases due to come out over the next week or so, which should give us more insight into the Fed’s policy direction. In the meantime, gold should continue to hold strong attraction as an investment hedge and as a gauge of generalized market uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent break above the $3,440 resistance level put an end to its multi-month consolidation and indicated very bullish strength. But the metal has not been able to maintain firmly above the $3,500 psychological handle, indicating that bulls are getting nervous at higher prices. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought, signaling the likely probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation before advancing the next leg higher. On the flip side, near-term support rests at $3,475–$3,474, with the $3,440 pivot zone in tow, which should see fresh buying interest if touched. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens again, gold may decisively break above the $3,500 psychological level and set the stage for additional gains. Ongoing safe-haven flows in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions, combined with increasing confidence in a September Fed rate cut, would offer robust tailwinds to buyers. A persistent break above this point may have gold tracing new record highs, as investors want shelter from uncertainty in global politics and monetary policy alike. Conversely, inability to find acceptance at prices above $3,500 might prompt some profit-taking and a corrective pullback. Short-term overbought levels, along with some modest U.S. Dollar improvement, might bear down on prices. Under such circumstances, gold could retest the $3,475–$3,474 level, while a further slide could find support near $3,440. A firm breach through this level could attract more selling pressure and drive the metal towards the $3,410–$3,400 area.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Retreats to $3,400 Ahead of US PCE Inflation Data as Dollar and Yields Strengthen

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  • August 29, 2025
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Gold is stabilizing around $3,407 after pulling back from the one-month high, with investors looking to the US core PCE inflation figures that will determine the Federal Reserve’s next step. A firming Dollar and stable Treasury yields are keeping prices under pressure, but safe-haven buying, tensions in geopolitics, and rate cut expectations are still favoring Gold’s overall bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Core PCE Price Index released today at 12:30 GMT will be the major determinant of Gold’s future direction. • A firmer US Dollar and solid Treasury yields are putting pressure on the precious metal. • Weaker PCE might fuel hopes for a September Fed rate cut, while stronger numbers might limit Gold’s upside. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership remain supporting safe-haven demand. Gold is consolidating slightly above the $3,400 level on Friday after pulling back from one-month high of $3,423, as traders become cautious before the release of the US core PCE Price Index. A firmer US Dollar and stronger Treasury yields are behind the pressure on the precious metal, as profit booking contributes to the retreat. The markets look for core PCE to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.9% on a yearly basis, and the result should influence anticipation for a September Fed rate reduction. Although corrected briefly, geopolitical tensions, issues regarding Fed autonomy, and the general safe-haven nature of Gold remain in favor of its bullish predisposition. Gold retreats towards $3,400 as investors look to the US core PCE inflation reading, which is a critical indicator of the Fed policy path. The stronger US Dollar and consistent Treasury yields dampen the metal, although its safe-haven status is still intact due to geopolitical and policy risks. • Gold falls to about $3,407 after Thursday’s one-month high of $3,423. • A stronger US Dollar and flat Treasury yields are weighing on the metal. • Expectations for a July US core PCE Price Index increase to 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. • A softer result can solidify hopes of a September Fed rate cut. • Improved inflation figures would support the Dollar and add further pressure to Gold. • Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns of Fed independence sustain safe-haven buying. • Technical levels of importance: support around $3,400 and $3,395; resistance at $3,423 and $3,450. Gold is trading close to $3,407 on Friday, falling slightly after hitting a high not seen since late July. The decline comes as market players go cautious in the wake of the release of US core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, which is likely to indicate a slight increase. A firmer US Dollar and strong Treasury yields are also contributing to the sentiment, while month-end profit-taking added to the decline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of the near-term consolidation, the overall outlook for Gold remains underpinned by enduring geopolitical tensions and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. Safe-haven buying has been supported by continued tensions in Ukraine and the legal battle over the Fed governor’s removal attempt. Added to the anticipation of policy easing in the second half of this year, these points continue to support Gold’s long-term bullish story across global markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is trading just above the $3,400 psychological floor following Thursday’s surge to $3,423, its best level since late July. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has relaxed from overbought levels to about 61, indicating abating momentum but still in the buyers’ favor. The next support is at $3,400, followed by the 21-period EMA at about $3,395 and the 100-period EMA at about $3,365. On the positive side, there is resistance at $3,423, with a steady break paving the way towards the $3,450 zone. Generally, the technical setup indicates dips can find fresh buying interest if major supports remain intact. FORECAST If the coming US core PCE inflation data is softer than anticipated, it might increase speculation for a September Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar and increasing Gold demand. In that case, a powerful break above $3,423 could set the stage for further advances to the $3,450 area, continuing to support the bullish momentum as safe-haven demand stays high. On the other hand, a better-than-anticipated PCE print will likely stem dovish Fed bets, boost the Dollar, and pressure Gold prices. Falling through the $3,400 support level may prompt a retreat back to $3,395 and possibly further to the $3,380–$3,370 region, where renewed buying interest might be seen.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Under Pressure as Dollar Strength and Yields Climb Before Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

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  • August 22, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to come under pressure for the second day in a row, down due to a climbing US Dollar and higher Treasury yields before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly awaited speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The gold bullion is floating in the vicinity of $3,325, still within its tight $3,320–$3,350 trading range, while investors wait for policy signals from Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech before his term expires in 2026. With Fed officials adopting a generally cautious and hawkish stance, markets have trimmed hopes of a September rate reduction, keeping bullion underpinned despite persistent geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia-Ukraine that still underpin safe-haven demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets look for cues on the Fed’s stance, with investors interested in assessing if Powell supports a data-dependent strategy or suggests easing. • Strong dollar and steep yields are the largest headwinds for Gold, limiting its upside potential. • Markets have reduced the probability of a September rate cut to about 70%, from near-certainty last week, making coming labor and inflation reports pivotal. • Russia-Ukraine uncertainty keeps on offering safe-haven support, capping deeper losses in Gold irrespective of bearish pressure. Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive session as a firmer US Dollar and higher Treasury yields sour the mood ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The valuable metal is stuck in the $3,320–$3,350 bandwidth, with investors holding back ahead of Powell’s comments, as they might alter expectations around future monetary policy action. The Fed is not likely to provide a September rate cut signal, but the market continues to be responsive to inflation and employment data, which will determine the next move from the central bank. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks associated with Russia-Ukraine tensions also continue to provide some safe-haven support, thus avoiding a steeper fall in bullion prices. Gold remains under pressure at $3,325 as a strong US Dollar and higher Treasury yields dictate in anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Markets look for policy signals from his words, while geopolitical risks provide some safe-haven support to bullion. • Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at around $3,325, down for a second consecutive day. • Bullion continues to be the main headwinds with strong US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. • Investors are looking forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at Jackson Hole, his final appearance before his 2026 term expires. • The markets now assign a 70% probability to a 25 bps rate decrease in September from almost certainty last week. • Recent hawkish comments by Fed officials have cooled expectations of aggressive easing. • Technical charts indicate Gold trading above crucial support at $3,330, with resistance set at $3,350. • Geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue to support safe-haven demand. Gold is muted as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. His words are likely to influence market mood on the Fed’s policy course, particularly in the face of conflicting economic messages in the US. While consumer spending is holding up, the labor market is slowing and inflation remains above target. Powell is expected to reassure markets by highlighting the Fed’s data-dependent approach over rushing to make changes right now, a diplomatic stance that has kept markets nervous. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Outside of the Fed, the larger geopolitical tensions backdrop remains shaping market mood. Continuing uncertainty on Russia-Ukraine peace discussions and the US move to take a step back from direct mediation remind of persistent threats that keep safe-haven Gold demand in check. With political pressure mounting on the Fed and global risks yet to be solved, investors remain on edge, looking for direction from policymakers while holding exposure to safe assets such as bullion. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is probing a critical support area around $3,330 that also represents the upper edge of a downtrend channel on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at around 44, just below the neutral 50 level, indicating waning momentum and a modestly bearish inclination. The MACD continues to trade below the zero line as well as the signal line, further supporting a lack of bullish enthusiasm. A decisive fall below $3,330 would provide a route for the downtrend to continue towards $3,310 and $3,300, whereas a bounce above $3,350 on the back of the 100-period SMA would make the argument for the bounce back towards $3,370 and possibly $3,400 more appealing. FORECAST If Gold can hold above the $3,330 support and gain traction, a bounce back to the $3,350 resistance level is imminent. A consistent push higher, supported by positive signals from Powell’s address or new geopolitical risks, could set the stage for testing $3,370 again. If the buying pressure intensifies, the next target on the upside would be in the vicinity of $3,400, providing the bulls with a stronger technical grip to rise further. On the other hand, a decisive fall through the $3,330 level will leave the metal vulnerable to further losses, with immediate support at $3,310 and then at $3,300. A continued fall below these levels would increase bear pressure, which could lead to a change in market sentiment and open the way for a larger retracement. Under such circumstances, Gold’s safe-haven demand could come under pressure unless fresh support comes from renewed geopolitical tensions or softer US data.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Slips as Hawkish Fed, Robust USD, and Russia-Ukraine Peace Hopes Dampen XAU/USD

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  • August 21, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) slid on Thursday after a hawkish FOMC minutes tone bolstered the US Dollar, while peace hopes for Russia and Ukraine further bruised safe-haven demand. The officials’ concerns over inflation and diminished chances of sharp rate cuts in September kept the USD firm. Geopolitical events, such as comments by Russian and US officials, in addition to market expectations surrounding near-term global PMIs and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address, will likely drive the short-term trend of the yellow metal. On a technical basis, Gold has support at $3,312 and resistance at $3,352, so a conservative trading range is in the offing. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will look to the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory and policy direction, which may influence short-term Gold action. • Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index reports might shape risk sentiment and influence safe-haven Gold demand. • Hawkish FOMC minutes are making the USD stronger, which usually puts pressure on non-yielding Gold. • Developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and statements from world leaders might influence Gold’s safe-haven appeal. Gold remained under pressure on Thursday, weighed down by a strong US Dollar after hawkish FOMC minutes and optimism on the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war. The minutes emphasized inflation fears, downscaling expectations for aggressive rate cuts in September and lending support to the Greenback. Traders are now looking forward to soon-to-be-released flash global PMIs and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for further guidance. Technically, Gold sees near-term support at $3,312 and resistance at $3,352, suggesting cautious trading range as investors consider economic and geopolitical signals. USD/CHF inches up to 0.8050 with the US Dollar finding refuge in the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation. Investors keep an eye on Powell’s Jackson Hole address, Swiss Trade Balance data, and US PMIs for fresh direction in markets. • Gold drifts lower on a stronger US Dollar propped up by dovish FOMC minutes. •  July FOMC meeting minutes emphasized inflation pressures and decreased the risk of aggressive September rate cuts. •  Hopes for a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement are curbing demand for the safe-haven metal. •  Market participants are waiting closely for upcoming flash global PMIs that will reflect the health of the economy and sentiment towards risk. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium continues to be a key market driver. • Technical support for Gold is around $3,312, whereas resistance is around $3,352 and $3,375. • A break below $3,300 would trigger additional technical selling, whereas strength above $3,352 might produce a short-covering rally towards $3,400. Gold came under fresh pressure on Thursday as the combination of a stronger US Dollar and geopolitical optimism depressed the safe-haven metal. The hawkish tone in the July FOMC minutes, highlighting fears of inflation, cooled the expectations for forceful interest rate cuts in September. Meanwhile, optimism over a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict also lowered demand for Gold, which usually gains from geopolitical tensions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are currently looking ahead to forthcoming economic indicators, such as flash global PMIs, and also to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors will be searching for indications on the direction of central bank policy and overall economic environment, which could shape risk sentiment and commodity flows. In the meantime, political events, like US President Trump’s verbal attacks on Fed officials, contribute to an additional layer of uncertainty in the market climate. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at near major support and resistance levels, thus reflecting a conservative market attitude. Short-term support is seen in the vicinity of the $3,312 area, which previously served as a pivot point and assisted in capping downside endeavors. On the positive side, resistance at $3,352–$3,375 represents near-term obstacles that may precipitate a bounce if broken. A continued breakdown below support might pave the way to $3,300 and the lower edge of the range around $3,270–$3,265, while a firm breakout above resistance might lay the ground for additional upside momentum to $3,400 and higher. FORECAST If Gold can hold on to the buying momentum over the near resistance of $3,352, short-covering and fresh buying interest may propel prices towards $3,375 and even breach the $3,400 level. A break above these levels might set up the stage for extended advances to the top edge of the multi-month trading range around $3,434–$3,435, which will be a very bullish phase in XAU/USD. On the negative, a move below the crucial support of $3,312 may provoke technical selling, driving Gold to $3,300. If this resistance level is not maintained, the following key support is close to $3,270–$3,265, which is the lower end of the three-month range. A breakdown there can signal further near-term weakness, adding more pressure to the yellow metal.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rebounds Ahead of Trump-Zelensky Meeting as Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost Safe-Haven Demand

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  • August 18, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded sharply from a two-week low on Monday, gaining support from retreating US Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The safe-haven metal also attracted buying interest as US President Donald Trump was meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some of the most important European leaders to talk of a possible peace deal with Russia. But a weak appreciation in the US Dollar and a general risk-on mood in the global markets might cap the upside momentum, with traders keeping a close eye on future FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for new policy signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is more and more expecting a rate reduction in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating at least two reductions by the end of the year. • Bilateral negotiations and then European discussions of a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement are watched by investors for geopolitical signals. • Falling Treasury yields underpin gold, but a modest USD recovery could limit gains. • Traders look to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for transparency on the Fed’s short-term policy direction. Gold prices made a sharp rebound from a two-week trough on Monday, underpinned by declining US Treasury yields and increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in September. The yellow metal’s safe-haven demand was additionally fueled by expectations of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders to talk about a possible peace agreement with Russia. But a modest recovery for the US Dollar and a broadly positive risk appetite in world markets may cap additional gains for gold, with traders waiting for the next FOMC Minutes and speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium for more definitive policy cues. Gold recovered from a two-week low as US bond yields ease and bets on Fed rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal. Geopolitical events, such as Trump-Zelensky discussions, and future Fed signals will be main motivators for its next direction. • Gold (XAU/USD) recovered more than $30 from a two-week low on Monday. • Falling US Treasury yields and September bets on Fed rate cuts boosted the metal. • CME FedWatch Tool indicates two or more cuts by end-year probability. • Trump-Zelensky summit and European leaders’ negotiations on a peace agreement provided geopolitical boost. • Modest US Dollar strength and risk-on market tone put a lid on additional advance. • Traders look for policy guidance from FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. • Technicals indicate resistance around $3,355-$3,374 and support around $3,324-$3,323. Gold picked up steam at the beginning of the week, tapping strength from declining US Treasury bond yields and increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve will reopen the rate-cutting taps in September. The change in monetary policy expectations has rekindled appetite for the non-yielding precious metal, which is appealing to investors looking for stability. In addition, the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, followed by further discussions with European leaders on a possible Russia-Ukraine peace accord, has boosted safe-haven demand for gold in the face of heightened geopolitical interest. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, recent US economic data have shaped market sentiment. Although retail sales were growing steadily, inflation expectations crept up, indicating persisting price pressures. Consumer confidence, though, softened appreciably, reflecting caution in households regarding the economic environment. It is against this that investors are keenly observing the publication of FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for direction on the speed of monetary loosening that will determine gold’s near-term demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has strongly bounced back from the $3,324–3,323 support level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July rally. The above 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart recovery indicates fresh bullish strength, with the oscillators also shifting into positive territory. A continued advance above the $3,355 level, which is equivalent to the 50% retracement, may set the stage for more gains toward $3,372–3,374 and potentially the $3,400 psychological level. To the negative, near-term support lies in the $3,346 area, with a violation unleashing the $3,300 round number and further losses toward $3,283–3,282. FORECAST If gold is able to hold its recovery above important resistance levels, the momentum may stretch to the $3,372–3,374 range based on Fed rate cut hopes and safe-haven buying in a climate of geopolitical uncertainty. Another push may enable the metal to retake the $3,400 level and even test the monthly high around $3,408–3,410 levels, particularly if bond yields continue to decline and the US Dollar loses ground. Conversely, not breaking above near-term support at $3,346 or a break below $3,324–3,323 support would re-ignite selling pressure. This would expose gold to retesting of the $3,300 psychological barrier, with further losses potentially pushing it down toward $3,283–3,282 and even the end-June swing low around $3,268 should risk appetite firm up and the US Dollar regain momentum.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Faces Weekly Loss on Solid US Data and Fading Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 26, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is poised to record a weekly loss as firmer-than-anticipated U.S. economic data and better global trade sentiment reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Strong labor market data, such as a fourth straight decline in Initial Jobless Claims, combined with fading concerns over trade tensions—most notably gains in U.S.-EU talks—strengthened the U.S. Dollar and dampened investor demand for Gold. Even with declining U.S. Treasury yields, the metal fell to a weekly low of $3,325, with technicals pointing towards further downside risk if important support levels do not hold. The market is now focusing on the coming Federal Reserve decision and important macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The markets generally anticipate the Fed to leave interest rates steady; surprises or forward guidance could do much to influence Gold prices. •  Solid readings could further bolster the US Dollar and diminish Gold’s attractiveness, while softer data could provide some stimulus for the metal. •  A leading indicator of labor market fitness—ongoing strength might support a hawkish Fed profile, which would put pressure on Gold. • Safe-haven demand may remain subdued, pushing Gold lower, with progress towards a deal continuing to weigh and the potential for renewed buying interest after setbacks. Gold prices will close out the week lower as strong United States economic data and fresh trade optimism temper safe-haven demand. A solid rebound in the United States. Dollar, buoyed by stronger-than-anticipated labor market statistics and indications of advancement in US-EU trade negotiations, has kept the precious metal under pressure. Even as U.S. Treasury yields dipped, XAU/USD dipped to $3,325, its third day of losses in a row. Investors now await the next Federal Reserve policy announcement and a series of key economic reports that may influence Gold’s short-term course further. Gold suffers weekly losses due to robust U.S. data and trade optimism weakening safe-haven demand. XAU/USD weakened to $3,325, with players now waiting for the Fed’s next policy decision and major economic releases. • Gold (XAU/USD) slid to a weekly low of $3,325, weighed down by robust U.S. economic data and softening trade tensions. • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims reduced for the fourth week, indicating strength in the labor market and lowering safe-haven demand. • Durable Goods Orders fell by 9.6% in June, yet Core Orders continued to increase by 0.2%, showing the true resilience of underlying business investment. • Trade expectations had improved after the U.S.-Japan deal, and possibly there is more to come before August 1 on an EU agreement. • The U.S. Dollar rebounded in this report, making Gold pricier to foreigners despite falling Treasury yields. •  Technical support for Gold is around $3,320, where key SMAs converge and RSI goes bearish. •  Future releases such as Fed decision, Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and NFP will play a significant role in determining Gold’s next direction. Gold is set to log a weekly decline amid robust economic data from the United States and softening global trade tensions cutting the metal’s safe-haven demand. Supporting data, such as ongoing declines in Initial Jobless Claims, have continued to prop up expectations for the resilience of the U.S. labor market. At the same time, optimism surrounding trade has gained momentum after an agreement between the U.S. and Japan was finalized, and indications are that a deal with the European Union can be reached ahead of the August 1 deadline. These events have kept investor interest in Gold in check, which normally flourishes during times of insecurity and economic hardship. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The U.S. Dollar also picked up momentum this week, making it costlier for foreign buyers to purchase Gold and further testing its attractiveness. Although U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, the optimism in the U.S. economy and trade talks has adequately countered the typical lift Gold gains due to decreasing yields. Market participants are now focused intently on next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate determination and a string of high-impact economics releases, such as GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls, scheduled to influence market mood and possibly redefine the short-term prognosis for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) has registered three consecutive down days, below the $3,350 level and probing significant support at the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around $3,342 and $3,332, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has become bearish, reflecting waning bullishness in the near term. A sustained break below the $3,320 level would bring out deeper support at the 100-day SMA and the June 30 low of $3,238–$3,246. On the upside, a move above $3,400 would be necessary to regain positive momentum, with possible resistance at $3,438 and the June high of $3,452. FORECAST If future U.S. economic releases, like Q2 GDP or Core PCE, reflect tempering inflation or slowing growth, Gold may re-gain bullish momentum as investors flee to safe-haven assets. Any dovish Federal Reserve tone or any suggestion of future rate cuts can also sustain Gold prices by lessening the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Geopolitical tensions or stalling in completing trade deals might also fuel the safe-haven demand, which could send XAU/USD higher again above the $3,400 handle. On the other hand, if economic conditions continue to signal strength—particularly via strong Nonfarm Payrolls or resilient consumerism—anticipation of a sustained higher-rate cycle can mount, further pressuring Gold. Further strengthening in the U.S. Dollar and closing of trade agreements, notably with the EU, would certainly bear down on Gold demand. In such an event, XAU/USD may meander down, possibly testing critical support lines around $3,320 or even $3,250 in the near term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Retains Gains Near $3,250 as Safe-Haven Demand Increases Due to Economic and Geopolitical Fears

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  • May 19, 2025
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Gold has recovered to sit near the higher end of the intraday range at $3,250, amid increased safe-haven demand due to rising economic and geopolitical concerns. The recent credit downgrade of the US government by Moody’s, in combination with fears of growing debt and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has increased investor demand for the non-yielding metal. In addition, hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and a weaker US Dollar are still supporting gold’s attractiveness despite hopes of a US-China trade truce and new trade agreements capping gains. Technical analysis suggests cautious optimism, with key resistance levels at $3,252 and $3,275 to watch before further gains can be confirmed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold’s ability to sustain gains above the $3,250-$3,252 resistance zone will be crucial to confirm a potential rebound and open the way toward the $3,300 mark. • Keeping a watch on US economic data and Federal Reserve statements is crucial, as dovish comments may continue to undermine the US Dollar and bolster gold prices. • The ever-present geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to be essential factors that may fuel safe-haven demand and shape gold’s direction. • A dip below the $3,200 support level may expose gold to more weakness towards $3,178 and even further to the $3,120-$3,100 area, probing lower support levels. Investors need to carefully monitor if gold is able to stay above the key $3,250–$3,252 resistance level, as a break above this level could set the stage for advances to the $3,300 level. Critical upcoming releases of US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches will also be crucial, as dovish indications can continue to weaken the US Dollar and underpin prices for gold. In the meantime, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to underpin safe-haven demand. On the other hand, a firm fall below the $3,200 support area may initiate additional selling pressure and drive gold to the $3,120–$3,100 levels to probe lower support levels. Gold’s next move depends on a break above the $3,250 resistance to reach $3,300, aided by safe-haven buying and a weaker US Dollar. Major US economic indicators and geopolitical tensions will also drive price action, while a fall below $3,200 may indicate deeper losses. • Gold price is hovering at the upper limit of its intraday range at $3,250 on the back of safe-haven demand. • Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concern about the fiscal health of the US, adding to the attractiveness of gold. • US Dollar is weighed down by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and is supporting gold prices. • Positivity toward a US-China trade truce and possible new trade agreements tops the gold’s upside. • Political tensions in the Middle East and persistent Russia-Ukraine conflict support safe-haven buying. • The key resistance zones to monitor are $3,250–$3,252 and $3,274–$3,275; a break above may take prices to $3,300. • Support zones are around $3,200 and $3,178–$3,177; a break below may see prices fall further to $3,120–$3,100. Gold prices have strengthened recently as investors seek safety amid mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The surprise downgrade of the US government’s credit rating by Moody’s has raised concerns about the nation’s fiscal health and growing debt, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2025 have weighed on the US Dollar, further enhancing gold’s appeal. Geopolitical tensions, especially persistent conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, still keep demand for the precious metal as a defensive asset on the rise. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of some optimism over a short-term US-China trade truce and expectations of more trade deals, these encouraging developments have yet to assuage investor worries to a great extent. Ongoing risks such as revived threats of tariffs from the US administration and patchy economic indicators of diminishing growth keep investors in a subdued mood. Consequently, gold continues to be a popular choice for investors who wish to hedge against economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now probing major resistance levels, implying subdued optimism among traders. The metal is testing resistance at its recent highs, which indicates that buyers are unwilling to drive prices much higher without greater momentum. Technical indicators and moving averages imply that gold might be consolidating and will wait for a definitive breakout to establish a sustained uptrend. On the other hand, any inability to penetrate these points of resistance may bring about temporary pullbacks, and thus it would be crucial that investors observe price action carefully before entering into new positions. FORECAST If gold can pierce the present resistance levels, it may be able to draw in fresh buying interest, sending prices higher. All this could be fueled by sustained geopolitical tensions, continuing US credit rating fears, and ongoing hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions. Under these circumstances, gold may be able to experience a sustained rally as investors turn to it for protection against economic uncertainty and weakness in currencies. On the negative side, supportive news such as advancements in US-China trade talks or indications of more vigorous economic growth may undermine the attraction of gold as a haven. Moreover, any surprise hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve or revival of the US Dollar could act as a dampener on the prices of gold. Failing to support key levels of support might induce additional selling pressure leading to a pullback as market players reconsider risk appetite and migrate to high-yielding assets.

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