Forex Trading Tools and Services

Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Leap Higher as US Economic Downturn and Rising US-China Trade Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices jumped as softer-than-anticipated US economic reports and rising US-China trade tensions fueled safe-haven buying. The ISM Services PMI flashed a contraction in business activity, while the ADP employment report registered slower private-sector hiring, highlighting a slowing US economy. President Trump’s executive order increasing tariffs for steel and aluminum to 50% added to trade fears in the meantime. While US Treasury yields and the US Dollar weakened, gold strengthened above $3,380 on hopes of possible Federal Reserve easing later this year. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Monitor coming Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) reports, which will further indicate the condition of the US labor market and will impact Federal Reserve policy expectations. •  Keep an eye on continuing trade negotiations and any fresh tariff news or executive orders that have the potential to ratchet tensions up and fuel safe-haven demand for gold. •  Watch for comments from Fed officials and interest rate cut market pricing, as dovish monetary policy almost invariably supports gold prices at higher levels. •  Watch gold’s price action around major resistance levels of $3,400, $3,438, and the all-time high of $3,500 for breakout or reversal signs. Gold’s recent run-up is a reflection of increasing fears that the US economy is slowing down and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China. The publication of softer-than-anticipated economic reports, such as a decline in the ISM Services PMI and less robust private job growth numbers, has cooled US growth expectations. At the same time, President Trump’s move to double the tariffs on steel and aluminum raised the uncertainty around international trade flows, pushing investors to take cover in safe-haven assets such as gold. As US Treasury yields declined and the dollar weakened, gold prices have gathered strength though resistance at the $3,400 level is a significant obstacle to keep an eye on. Gold prices jumped as signs of slowing US economic activity and US-China trade tensions picked up. Falling economic data and escalating tariffs fueled safe-haven demand, sending gold past $3,380. Attention now turns to coming US employment reports and Fed policy cues. •  Gold prices bounced more than 0.80% in the North American session, hitting more than $3,380. •  Downbeat US economic reports, such as a decline in ISM Services PMI and weaker ADP employment, pointed towards slowing economy. •  President Trump signed an executive order that raised tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, raising US-China trade tensions. •  Declining US Treasury yields and a declining US Dollar fueled gold’s safe-haven demand. •  The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.44% to 98.81, propelling gold higher. •  Speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts in the latter part of this year has bolstered gold demand. •  The critical technical resistance for gold is at $3,400, $3,438, and the record high of $3,500, while support is around $3,300 and $3,235. Gold prices have jumped in recent times, fueled by a mix of softer-than-expected US economic indicators and rising trade tensions between the United States and China. The Institute for Supply Management’s report showed a contraction in the services sector for the first time in almost a year, as employment data indicated a deceleration in private hiring. These moves have heightened concerns over the health of the US economy, causing investors to look for safer alternatives like gold. Concurrently, US President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% has added to overall uncertainty surrounding global trade relations, further fueling the metal as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The current trade war and indicators of cooling in the economy have also weighed on Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market participants are increasingly expecting the Fed to ease monetary policy toward the end of this year to stimulate growth, particularly with the effect of tariffs on inflation uncertain. This expectation, coupled with a weakening US Dollar and declining Treasury yields, has provided a good climate for prices for gold. While traders look forward to the release of future US jobs data and trade talks, gold is still an asset worth monitoring in the face of the changing economic environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is in a positive trend but is facing resistance at the $3,400 zone, where it has not been able to break decisively of late. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing high buying momentum, which implies that the buyers are still dominant. If gold does break above $3,400, it may set the stage for testing upper resistance points at $3,438 and all-time highs near $3,500. Alternatively, a move below the $3,300 support could prompt a correction, taking prices to the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235 or lower to support at $3,167. FORECAST If gold prices manage to overcome the $3,400 resistance level, then the rally may develop strong momentum, driving the metal towards strategic targets of $3,438 and even test the all-time high around $3,500. More deterioration in US economic indicators, combined with sustained trade tensions and hopes for Federal Reserve easing, would most probably fuel further gains in gold. Safe-haven demand among investors can rise, particularly in case geopolitical tensions escalate or inflation worries mount. On the flip side, if gold cannot hold ground at the $3,400 level and breaks the $3,300 support level, a bearish phase can materialize. This can bring about a fall to the 50-day Simple Moving Average at about $3,235 and further to the support around $3,167. Such a pullback can be caused by a stronger US Dollar, favorable trade relations, or more positive than expected US economic data that reduce safe-haven demand. Traders need to monitor these levels for a reversal or consolidation.

Commodities Gold

Gold Soars to Record $3,500 Amid Fed Turmoil and Political Uncertainty

Gold prices hit a record high of $3,500 in April, with over 10% gains for the month as political tensions and economic uncertainty rock global markets. The aggressive rebound is led by increasing fear over the independence of the Federal Reserve, as US President Trump viciously criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and demanded cuts in interest rates immediately. While investors rush out of riskier assets amid worries over policy volatility and weakening US economic fundamentals, gold remains the safe-haven of choice. Although the price fell briefly on profit-taking, technical indicators indicate the bullish trend may continue if support levels hold. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold has reached a record high of $3,500, and a continued daily close above the $3,447 resistance level may set the stage for additional gains in April. • Increased political tension between Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump is fueling concerns over central bank independence, a major market sentiment driver. • In a weakening US Dollar and Treasury yield uncertainty environment, gold remains on the radar as the “only true safe-haven asset,” says Jefferies. • Short-term reversals are imminent as traders book profits around the $3,500 psychological mark, with crucial support levels at $3,360 and $3,296 to monitor for potential bounces. Gold’s sudden surge to an all-time high of $3,500 reflects increasing investor nervousness as political tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve escalate. With President Trump publicly slamming Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and urging hawkish rate reductions, worries surrounding the independence of the central bank have eroded market confidence and sent the US Dollar to multi-year lows. This has provoked robust safe-haven demand for gold, which remains on track despite sporadic profit-taking in and around prominent psychological levels. As world markets absorb corporate profits and navigate a weak economic environment, gold continues to be squarely in the spotlight, with technicals indicating the possibility of continued volatility in the days ahead. Gold hit an all-time high at $3,500 as President Trump’s political tensions with the Federal Reserve sent market uncertainty running high. Demand for safe havens is robust, though there has been some profit-taking sending prices down modestly. Traders now keep an eye on key support and resistance levels awaiting the next move. • Prices of WTI oil skyrocketed to around $63.50 per barrel amid short-covering after Monday’s heavy selling. • US President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and push for immediate rate cuts prompted market volatility. • Increasing uncertainty about US monetary policy and global economic threats have cemented gold’s position as the safest-haven asset. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to its lowest since 2022, further propelling gold’s rally as investors fled USD-denominated assets. • After reaching $3,500, gold experienced modest corrections following profit-taking near the psychological resistance. • A close above $3,447 on a daily basis could seal more gains to the upside, with important support at $3,360 and $3,296 in case of a reversal. • With Fed uncertainty, political tensions, and earnings season on the agenda, investors prepare for even more gold price fluctuations in the upcoming sessions. Gold prices have risen to record levels this April, fueled by increasing political and economic uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve. The steep rally follows rising tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as Trump publicly criticized the central bank’s rate policy and suggested possible attempts to replace Powell with someone more sympathetic to his agenda. This unprecedented political confrontation on the Fed’s independence has been sending alarm through the global markets, prompting investors to take cover in gold as U.S. financial leadership credibility crumbles. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the political intrigue, the demand for gold has increased as the overall sentiment on the market goes bearish. Concerns about the stability of U.S. economic prospects, shifts in global trade dynamics, and changes in interest rates have compelled investors to reevaluate the security of conventional assets such as Treasuries and the dollar. Most investors now consider gold one of the few safe havens in a very uncertain world. As events unfold, gold remains the mirror of the market’s safety flight in reaction to both economic and political hot spots. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent upsurge emphasizes robust bullish momentum as it continues to establish new record highs. The price action indicates that buyers are solidly in command, with every dip drawing fresh demand. Having reached the psychological mark of $3,500, gold witnessed some natural profit-taking, but the overall direction is still higher as long as the market remains above key support zones. Analysts note that the ongoing strength suggests the metal is likely to consolidate before attempting another leg higher, especially if global uncertainty and investor risk aversion persist. The absence of major technical resistance beyond its all-time highs leaves room for further advances, while healthy pullbacks could offer opportunities for buyers to re-enter the market. FORECAST The outlook for gold remains bullish as long as global uncertainty and political tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment. If safe-haven demand stays strong, gold could see fresh attempts to retest and possibly break above its recent record high of $3,500. Ongoing pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, concerns over interest rate decisions, and a weaker U.S. Dollars are all factors that could support further upside in the coming weeks. If geopolitical or financial instability deepens, gold could see its rally extend past present levels as more and more investors move away from riskier assets. Even with its good run, gold is not exempt from short-term corrections, particularly after dramatic rallies. If political stability is established or if the Federal Reserve issues a clear and strong policy signal, investor risk appetite may revive, causing gold prices to pull back. Profit-taking is another normal phenomenon that would cause short-term dips, particularly after psychological resistance levels are reached. A stronger U.S. Dollar or ease inflation concerns may also lower the demand for gold, driving prices further down towards previously set support levels before a possible bounce.