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Gold Prices Rally Near Two-Week High as USD Weakens on US Fiscal Worries and Global Geopolitical Risks

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  • May 22, 2025
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Gold prices rallied to a near two-week high, holding above $3,300, as a weakening US dollar combined with rising fiscal worries in the US. Investor concern over growing US deficit, amid Moody’s recent downgrade of the nation’s sovereign credit rating and divisive tax bill, has dented dollar confidence. Fears of renewed US-China trade tensions and rising geopolitical threats, such as simmering Middle Eastern conflicts, have further fueled demand for gold as a haven asset. Technical indicators further indicate a positive outlook for gold, with the price breaking key resistance levels and ready to test higher targets in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Investors will watch closely what happens with the US tax-cut and spending bill, which could dramatically add to the national debt and affect market sentiment. •  Bets on additional Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 in response to weakening growth and softening inflation continue to be a key driver of the US dollar and gold prices. • Disputes over export controls and technology restrictions linger, potentially raising geopolitical risks, and underpinning gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and major-power rivalries between countries such as Russia are also fueling uncertainty, underscoring gold’s use as a defensive asset. Investors are watching closely as the evolving US fiscal situation plays out, with the approval of a large tax-cut and spending measure risking expansion of the national debt and dampening market sentiment. While that is on its way out, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2025 as the economy slows and inflation eases continue to weigh on the US dollar, supporting gold’s allure. Increased tensions in US-China trade relations, specifically on tech exports, provide another source of geopolitical uncertainty, supporting safe-haven purchases. Furthermore, continued unrest in the Middle East and tensions among world powers maintain uncertainty, adding to gold’s role as a sanctuary in uncertain times. Markets continue to be preoccupied with US fiscal woes and possible Fed rate reductions, which are depressing the dollar and bolstering gold prices. Increased US-China trade tensions and continued geopolitical unrest continue to fuel safe-haven demand for the metal. • Gold prices went higher for the fourth straight day to set a near two-week peak of more than $3,300. • The US dollar is weak because of increasing fiscal fears and anticipations of Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. • Moody’s reduction of the US sovereign credit rating and concerns regarding the widening US deficit overhang market sentiment. •  The Republican-sponsored tax-cut and spending package may add trillions to the US debt, yet another reason for concern. •  Resurgent US-China trade tensions, particularly on the export of advanced technology, are amplifying geopolitical risks. •  Middle Eastern conflicts and tense international relations remain strong fundamentals for the demand for gold. •  Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, as prices break resistance levels and head towards $3,365 and further to $3,400. Gold prices have continued to climb as a background of increasing economic and geopolitical risks. Concerns among investors regarding the fiscal health of the United States are still at the forefront, particularly in the wake of Moody’s recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The threat of the passage of a large tax-cut and spending measure, which will add trillions to the national debt, has further spooked markets. Further, the US dollar has lost strength on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in 2025 as economic growth slows and inflation eases. This pairing has made gold a more attractive safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, escalating US-China tensions over the export of technologies have fueled geopolitical risks, underpinning a risk-averse market mood. Middle Eastern conflicts, such as ongoing military interventions and humanitarian issues, provide another source of uncertainty, prompting investors to find shelter in gold. As several sources of risk coalesce, gold remains in favor with buyers in search of stability in a context of economic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has shown robust bullish strength, powering past major resistance levels of $3,250-$3,255 and holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of its latest bear move. Daily chart oscillators are becoming increasingly positive, implying upward trend momentum and that the direction of least resistance still is to the upside. This technical resilience is indicative of further advances toward the $3,365 area and even toward the $3,400 level, as long as the price remains above key support levels around $3,300. But any meaningful break below support might attract selling pressure, pushing lower levels of $3,250 and $3,200. FORECAST Gold prices are set to maintain their ascending direction as long as they remain above major support levels of $3,300. Favorable momentum and robust safe-haven demand fueled by continuing geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries would propel prices to the next resistance level of $3,365. A break below this level would see gold challenging the psychologically important $3,400 level, boosted by continuing US dollar weakness and hopes of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the flip side, inability to find support near the $3,300 level could pave the way for a corrective pullback. Sellers could engage near $3,255 if gold drops below $3,285. Yet a clear break below this support level may result in additional technical selling, pushing prices to the $3,200 level. Such a situation could occur if risk appetite upgrades considerably or if US economic reports lower expectations for monetary easing.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Retains Gains Near $3,250 as Safe-Haven Demand Increases Due to Economic and Geopolitical Fears

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  • May 19, 2025
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Gold has recovered to sit near the higher end of the intraday range at $3,250, amid increased safe-haven demand due to rising economic and geopolitical concerns. The recent credit downgrade of the US government by Moody’s, in combination with fears of growing debt and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has increased investor demand for the non-yielding metal. In addition, hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and a weaker US Dollar are still supporting gold’s attractiveness despite hopes of a US-China trade truce and new trade agreements capping gains. Technical analysis suggests cautious optimism, with key resistance levels at $3,252 and $3,275 to watch before further gains can be confirmed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold’s ability to sustain gains above the $3,250-$3,252 resistance zone will be crucial to confirm a potential rebound and open the way toward the $3,300 mark. • Keeping a watch on US economic data and Federal Reserve statements is crucial, as dovish comments may continue to undermine the US Dollar and bolster gold prices. • The ever-present geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to be essential factors that may fuel safe-haven demand and shape gold’s direction. • A dip below the $3,200 support level may expose gold to more weakness towards $3,178 and even further to the $3,120-$3,100 area, probing lower support levels. Investors need to carefully monitor if gold is able to stay above the key $3,250–$3,252 resistance level, as a break above this level could set the stage for advances to the $3,300 level. Critical upcoming releases of US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches will also be crucial, as dovish indications can continue to weaken the US Dollar and underpin prices for gold. In the meantime, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to underpin safe-haven demand. On the other hand, a firm fall below the $3,200 support area may initiate additional selling pressure and drive gold to the $3,120–$3,100 levels to probe lower support levels. Gold’s next move depends on a break above the $3,250 resistance to reach $3,300, aided by safe-haven buying and a weaker US Dollar. Major US economic indicators and geopolitical tensions will also drive price action, while a fall below $3,200 may indicate deeper losses. • Gold price is hovering at the upper limit of its intraday range at $3,250 on the back of safe-haven demand. • Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concern about the fiscal health of the US, adding to the attractiveness of gold. • US Dollar is weighed down by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and is supporting gold prices. • Positivity toward a US-China trade truce and possible new trade agreements tops the gold’s upside. • Political tensions in the Middle East and persistent Russia-Ukraine conflict support safe-haven buying. • The key resistance zones to monitor are $3,250–$3,252 and $3,274–$3,275; a break above may take prices to $3,300. • Support zones are around $3,200 and $3,178–$3,177; a break below may see prices fall further to $3,120–$3,100. Gold prices have strengthened recently as investors seek safety amid mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The surprise downgrade of the US government’s credit rating by Moody’s has raised concerns about the nation’s fiscal health and growing debt, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2025 have weighed on the US Dollar, further enhancing gold’s appeal. Geopolitical tensions, especially persistent conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, still keep demand for the precious metal as a defensive asset on the rise. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of some optimism over a short-term US-China trade truce and expectations of more trade deals, these encouraging developments have yet to assuage investor worries to a great extent. Ongoing risks such as revived threats of tariffs from the US administration and patchy economic indicators of diminishing growth keep investors in a subdued mood. Consequently, gold continues to be a popular choice for investors who wish to hedge against economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now probing major resistance levels, implying subdued optimism among traders. The metal is testing resistance at its recent highs, which indicates that buyers are unwilling to drive prices much higher without greater momentum. Technical indicators and moving averages imply that gold might be consolidating and will wait for a definitive breakout to establish a sustained uptrend. On the other hand, any inability to penetrate these points of resistance may bring about temporary pullbacks, and thus it would be crucial that investors observe price action carefully before entering into new positions. FORECAST If gold can pierce the present resistance levels, it may be able to draw in fresh buying interest, sending prices higher. All this could be fueled by sustained geopolitical tensions, continuing US credit rating fears, and ongoing hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions. Under these circumstances, gold may be able to experience a sustained rally as investors turn to it for protection against economic uncertainty and weakness in currencies. On the negative side, supportive news such as advancements in US-China trade talks or indications of more vigorous economic growth may undermine the attraction of gold as a haven. Moreover, any surprise hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve or revival of the US Dollar could act as a dampener on the prices of gold. Failing to support key levels of support might induce additional selling pressure leading to a pullback as market players reconsider risk appetite and migrate to high-yielding assets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from Record Levels as US Trade Negotiations Ease Market Nerves

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  • April 17, 2025
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Gold prices pulled back from a new all-time high of $3,358, pulling back below the $3,300 level, as hopes for the United States’ success in trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico eased global market nerves somewhat. Nevertheless, the downside for gold is still limited, as persistent US-China trade tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand. The US Dollar also gained modest strength after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and indications of diplomatic progress in trade talks. Although investors took some profits, the overall gold outlook remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns and robust technical momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Although the recent correction from its all-time high of $3,358, gold’s overall trend is still bullish, underpinned by solid technical indicators such as the 14-day RSI remaining above 70 and EMAs pointing upwards. • The current dignity-driven confrontation between the US and China continues to offer a support level for gold prices, sustaining safe-haven demand in the face of global economic uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index recovered from close to a three-year low after trade talks with Japan and Mexico indicated advances, alleviating short-term concerns over global dislocation and weighing on gold. • Gold has firm resistance at the $3,400 level, while the 20-day EMA near $3,135.50 will serve as crucial support in case the correction further intensifies. Gold prices pulled back from a record high of $3,358 as progress in U.S. trade talks with Japan and Mexico slightly calmed global market jitters, prompting some investors to book profits. However, the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions continue to support the precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, limiting further downside. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar made a small comeback, assisted by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and declining trade uncertainty, which also dented gold’s near-term momentum. Even with the correction, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, underpinned by robust technicals and ongoing global economic risks. Gold prices eased from a new all-time high of $3,358 as the advance in U.S. trade talks with Japan and Mexico calmed global economic uncertainty. Yet, current U.S.-China tensions are still boosting safe-haven demand, keeping the overall bullish stance for gold in place. • Gold prices corrected from a new all-time high of $3,358, falling back below $3,300 on profit-booking. •  Unsolved US-China trade tensions continue to provide underlying support for gold as a safe-haven asset. •  The U.S. Dollar recovered modestly from a near three-year low, limiting gold’s upside in the near term. •  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments indicated optimism about U.S. economic stability, which strengthened the dollar. •  Technical indicators are still bullish, with the 14-day RSI still above 70 and all key EMAs pointing upwards. •  $3,135.50 as solid support (20-day EMA) and $3,400 as key resistance. Gold prices softened as hopes increased about the advancement of U.S. trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico. Encouraging news from U.S. President Trump on the continuation of talks eased global market uncertainty, leading some investors to divert attention away from safe-haven commodities such as gold. The alleviation of trade tensions has for the moment dulled fears about possible disruptions in the global economy. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView But even with this advance, the unresolved China-U.S. trade row remains a lurking presence in the background, keeping market sentiment in check. The prospect of a standoff more about political ego than commerce, however, poses a guarantee that gold continues to be a critical buffer in times of uncertainty for investors. The market continues to be waiting for further developments as global economic risks are yet to run their course. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in the robust bullish trajectory despite recent correcting from an all-time high at $3,358. Prices are still trending well above principal moving averages, with all the short-to-medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) rising – indicating prolonged demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still cruising above the level of 70, which implies that bull pressure is still firmly in place though some profit-booking at these high levels comes naturally. If the price continues its decline, the 20-day EMA at $3,135.50 is likely to serve as a strong support level, and on the upside, the $3,400 level is an important resistance barrier for any potential break. FORECAST Gold’s medium-term perspective is bullish, driven by ongoing global economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand, particularly as U.S.-China trade tensions persist. If positive momentum is regained, prices may retest the $3,300 level and target the psychological resistance of $3,400. Ongoing uncertainty regarding global trade relations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies can continue to drive further rallies in gold prices. On the negative side, any serious breakthrough in U.S. trade negotiations — particularly if the U.S. and China resume talks — would soothe global market jitters, taking some heat off gold. As long as profit-taking continues and the U.S. Dollar gains strength, prices of gold may drift toward the 20-day EMA level of $3,135.50, the next support point of note. A break through this would invite further corrections towards the $3,100 level.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Glitters at Record Highs as US-China Trade War and Fed Cut Speculation Fuel Rally

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  • April 11, 2025
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Gold prices are climbing near record highs at about $3,220 as tensions in the US-China trade war escalate and speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts rises to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. The US Dollar remains weakening, and foreign investors find gold increasingly appealing, while softer-than-anticipated US inflation readings have made the case for monetary easing as early as June even stronger. In spite of a brief tariff reprieve for most US trading partners, the sudden spike in tariffs on Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, further boosting gold’s bullish trend. With technicals signaling further upside, gold may be set to test the $3,250–$3,300 level in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Momentum remains positive as the metal teases lifetime highs. A break above $3,250 on a sustained basis could set the stage for $3,300 and higher. • Weaker US inflation data spurs speculation of Fed rate cuts from June, with markets pricing up to 100 bps of cuts by year-end. • China’s retaliatory duties and the aggressive tariff increase of Chinese products by the US are escalating worldwide economic concerns, fostering safe-haven demand. • The DXY keeps declining, trading close to 100.20, as investors respond to trade volatility and mixed economic signs. Gold prices still fluctuate around historic highs at $3,220 with market sentiment remaining fueled by a combination of economic and geopolitical issues. The increasing US-China trade war, defined by reciprocal tariff increases, has increased worldwide uncertainty, prompting investors to turn towards safe-haven assets such as gold. While simultaneously, gentler-than-anticipated US inflation figures have enhanced hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts beginning as early as June, fueling the rally of the metal even further. The weakening US Dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, joins the positive sentiment. With technical indicators still pointing toward upside space, gold may be in line to test the pivotal resistance point at $3,250 and possibly target $3,300 in the near term. Gold prices fluctuate near all-time highs of $3,220, supported by increasing US-China trade tensions and heightened hopes of Fed rate cuts. The weakening US Dollar and safe-haven demand still drive the bullish momentum of the metal. Focus now shifts to the $3,250 resistance level for the next break-out. • Gold prices are trading near all-time highs of $3,220 in the wake of increasing global uncertainty. • The heightening US-China trade conflict has prompted investor flight to safe-haven assets such as gold. • China responded with a 125% duty on US goods following the US imposition of a 145% charge on imports from China. • Weaker US inflation data has reinforced hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions from June. • The US Dollar continues to deteriorate, making gold more desirable to foreign investors. • Policymakers at the Federal Reserve worry about reconciling inflation restraint with a weakening growth in the economy. • Gold is still in high demand as a protection against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold prices are attracting firm investor attention as worldwide economic tensions escalate, led by the deepening US-China trade war. The most recent round of tariff hikes — with the US increasing duties to 145% on Chinese imports and China hitting back with a sharp 125% tariff on US goods — has introduced a new degree of uncertainty into world markets. These trends have renewed fears of dampening global growth and possible dislocations in international trade, causing investors to flock to safe havens such as gold, which historically does well during periods of geopolitical tension. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the allure of gold is the changing economic outlook in the United States. Economic indicators most recently provided were softer than anticipated, solidifying expectations the Federal Reserve could start reducing interest rates as soon as June. The lower rates make assets that don’t pay interest, such as gold, more appealing since the cost opportunity of holding them is reduced. Coupled with a soft US Dollar and general concerns over economic deceleration, these forces are fueling rising demand for gold, making it a sought-after hedge in the uncertain world today. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is firmly bullish-trending, with the daily chart registering continuous upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels, indicating considerable buying interest yet potentially flashing signs of exhaustion if the rally is not paused. Key levels of support have moved higher, showing strong demand on dips. While near-term resistance is observed around the $3,250 psychological level, a decisive break above this level may spur a new round of buying demand. On the downside, any corrective falls are set to find support around $3,200 and lower still at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which means the general trend is still very much in favor of bulls unless the levels are broken convincingly. FORECAST Gold is set to continue its rally in the near term courtesy of a combination of factors such as geopolitical tensions, the weakening US Dollar, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate reductions. If macroeconomic sentiment remains unclear and inflation keeps declining, gold may experience more investment inflows in search of shelter. A break above the psychological $3,250 level can pave the way for more advances, with the $3,300 level seeming like a reasonable medium-term objective. Ongoing safe-haven demand and global risk aversion might maintain pressure on the metal to rise. In spite of the powerful momentum, gold is subject to potential downside risk if any sudden pickup in US-China trade tensions or a better-than-anticipated recovery in US economic data were to occur. This would potentially lift the US Dollar and lower the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts, both of which could become bearish for gold prices. On the other hand, if the ongoing rally is followed by profit-taking or technical indicators signal signs of being overbought, a short-term correction to $3,200 or even $3,000 cannot be eliminated. But such dips can be interpreted as buying opportunities, provided the overall economic situation remains weak.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rises to $3,125 as Tariff Uncertainty and Fed Policy Drive Bullion Rally

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  • April 10, 2025
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Gold prices rose above the $3,100 level on Thursday, reaching $3,125 in the US session, on the back of rising global trade tensions and changing interest rate expectations. The rally comes in the wake of President Trump’s declaration of a 90-day tariff reprieve on 56 nations and the EU, and a steep hike in tariffs on Chinese imports, raising concerns about a deepening trade war. In parallel, the People’s Bank of China continues to debase the Yuan, further roiling global markets. In the face of volatile financial markets and diminished expectations of a near-term Fed rate reduction, investors are increasingly seeking the refuge of gold, driving the metal to within shouting distance of its record highs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold is testing the R1 resistance level of $3,131, with the record high of $3,167 and the R2 resistance level of $3,180 as key levels to monitor if the rally persists. • On the negative side, the $3,050 Pivot Point and the solid support zone around $3,000—involving the March 14 high and psychological level—are crucial levels that might draw buyers in case prices correct. • The sudden escalation of US-China tariffs and Beijing’s retaliatory actions risk extended trade tensions, which might maintain gold demand at a high level as a hedge. • The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a sharp decline in May rate cut probabilities (to 19.5%), but June still looks probable at 75.3%, which makes future Fed commentary pivotal to gold’s next direction. Investors in gold need to closely monitor important technical and geopolitical events that may determine the metal’s next direction. The $3,131 resistance is being tested, and the all-time high of $3,167 and R2 level at $3,180 are the key upside targets if the bull momentum persists. At the downside, solid support is around the $3,000 level, bolstered by prior highs and the psychological level. Geopolitical tensions continue to be high as the US-China trade war heats up, with retaliatory tariffs and currency fluctuations introducing uncertainty. Also, changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts—now less likely in May but still likely in June—are affecting investor attitudes and may have a decisive role to play in gold’s near-term direction. Gold is probing significant resistance levels as it moves above $3,125 on the back of intensifying US-China trade tensions and changing Fed rate cut hopes. The region of solid support lies around $3,000, with coming economic data releases and geo-political developments likely to play a decisive role in determining its next course. • Gold climbed to $3,125, taking out the below-$3,000 barrier with increased market uncertainty. • President Trump imposed a 90-day tariff holiday on 56 countries and the EU, which generated bullish sentiment. • Tariffs on China rose to 125%, provoking concerns about an even more serious US-China trade war and enhancing safe-haven buying. • The Yuan is still weakening, indicating Beijing will use currency depreciation as a bargaining chip. • May fed rate cut probabilities fell to 19.5%, but June cut expectations are still high at 75.3%. • Technical resistance is at $3,131 and $3,167, while $3,000 is a solid support level. • Gold has risen 18% year-to-date, underpinned by central bank purchases and investor demand during financial market uncertainty. Gold is seeing a dramatic rise in demand as economic uncertainty around the world increases, spurred primarily by intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China. President Trump’s declaration of a 90-day tariff suspension on some countries and the European Union provided fleeting relief to markets, but the sudden tariff increase on Chinese imports has renewed fears of an extended trade war. China’s retaliation and depreciation of the Yuan indicate that the conflict could continue to intensify, driving investors into safer assets such as gold. As a historical hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold is gaining from the increasing discomfort among global investors. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from trade-related concerns, changing expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy are also driving gold’s increasing attractiveness. While the likelihood of a May interest rate cut has dimmed, a potential reduction in June remains probable, indicating the Federal Reserve could still tilt toward loosening if economic conditions deteriorate. In addition, news on China’s stimulus talks continues to fuel overall market volatility. With this backdrop of financial uncertainty and declining confidence in other asset classes, gold is a consistent store of value, drawing the attention of both institutional investors and long-term buyers alike. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has rallied strongly, unwinding recent declines and moving higher on renewed bullish momentum. The metal is now approaching critical resistance levels, with robust upside momentum indicating ongoing buyer interest. As long as prices stay high, investors are watching closely for a breakout above recent highs to confirm further potential upside. On the other hand, any retracement will find a floor in former consolidation levels, maintaining the general trend in tact as long as gold remains above its key support levels. FORECAST With constant geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China, and underlying issues of global economic stability, gold will continue to be sought after as a safe-haven asset. Assuming the current trend persists, backed by hopes for future stimulus in leading economies and potential Fed rate cuts in the near months, gold may set new all-time highs. Investors’ increasing demand for riskless assets during stock market turbulence and deteriorating global growth prospects could give gold the spark necessary to move above its historic peak. In a bullish climate, gold has risks on the downside as well. Resolution or attenuation of trade tensions could see investors regain faith in equities and risk assets, diminishing gold’s appeal. Also, if future economic data reveals surprise resilience in the US economy, the Federal Reserve could hold off on rate cuts, which would exert downward pressure on gold prices. Any sudden appreciation of the US dollar or sudden revival in world markets could also trigger profit-taking in gold, causing short-term price corrections.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Reaches Record High at $3,045 Before Fed Decision as Geopolitical Tensions Rise and the Market Remains Uncertain

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  • March 19, 2025
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Gold reached a new record high of $3,045 on Wednesday amid rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The rally was driven by disconcerting reports from Turkey and Ukraine, and fears of possible economic slowdown in the U.S. even with a temporary ceasefire deal between President Trump and President Putin. While gold’s momentum is still robust, analysts are cautioning of a potential pullback, particularly if the Fed indicates fewer rate cuts than anticipated. While markets wait with bated breath for Jerome Powell’s remarks and economic forecasts, gold traders are eagerly waiting for signals that would determine the next major move in the precious metal. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Fed’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts, which may influence the direction of gold in the subsequent sessions. • Political instability in Turkey and uncertainty in Ukraine are still backing gold prices as safe-haven demand continues to stay high. • Keep an eye on critical resistance levels of $3,048 and $3,063; a break above might spark a new wave of gold bullishness. • Gold’s strong rally could get a near-term correction if the Fed gives cues of less rate cuts or turns hawkish. Gold’s stellar rally to an all-time high of $3,045 is a reflection of increasing geopolitical tensions and increased investor wariness in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement. The metal’s safe-haven demand has been supported by political turmoil in Turkey and continued uncertainty in Ukraine, as market players look to the Fed’s interest rate outlook and economic forecasts for 2025 and beyond. A hawkish Fed or less-than-anticipated rate cut signals may provoke a short-term retreat in gold prices. Yet, technical resistance levels at $3,048 and $3,063 are still crucial to monitor, as a break above these levels would ignite more upside momentum. Gold reached a record high of $3,045 in the wake of increasing geopolitical tensions and before the key Fed interest rate decision. Investors now wait for cues on subsequent rate cuts, while technical resistance at $3,048 would decide the direction of gold prices next. • Gold rose to a record high of $3,045 on Wednesday, fueled by geopolitical tensions and market expectation. • Political instability in Turkey and ongoing uncertainty in Ukraine have bolstered safe-haven demand for gold. • Investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts for future policy guidance. • Any hawkish rhetoric from the Fed or lower rate cut expectations could lead to a short-term gold correction. • Technical resistance points at $3,048 and $3,063 may define further upside potential in gold prices. • Levels of support to monitor are $3,024, $3,010, and the psychological $3,000 level. • Gold’s rally may be overbought despite bullish sentiment, with traders wary of a potential pullback. Gold hit a new record high of $3,045 as investors grew increasingly nervous over increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty. Prices rose as markets responded to important political events, such as the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, a prominent opposition leader in Turkey, and persistent turmoil in Ukraine. These occurrences have bolstered gold’s reputation as a historical safe-haven asset, as investors turn to it for security in uncertain global headlines. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To the uncertainty, attention now turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will make its most recent interest rate decision and release new economic forecasts. While the market generally expects no change, expectations for future rate reductions have the potential to impact overall market sentiment. With a backdrop of nervous optimism and geopolitical tension, gold remains a focus as a hedge against prospective financial volatility and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent surge to an all-time high of $3,045 reflects robust bullish momentum in the market. The short-term attention now turns to critical resistance levels near $3,048 and $3,063, which may serve as prospective breakout areas in case of further pressure on the upside. On the downside, levels near $3,024, $3,010, and the psychological level of $3,000 are crucial checkpoints in the event of a pullback. While the trend remains positive, traders should stay cautious, as overbought conditions could lead to short-term corrections before the next leg higher. FORECAST Gold’s latest rally implies there is scope for further price rises in the immediate term, provided geopolitical tensions prevail or the Federal Reserve introduces dovish policy measures. A repeated breach above $3,045 could lead to the opening up of higher levels of resistance levels, and it is investor psyche that could bring prices towards the $3,063 levels or higher. Fresh fears over international economic stability as well as the demand for haven assets may yet continue to power bullish sentiment across the gold complex. Even with the aggressive rally, there is still potential for a short-term correction as gold begins to appear somewhat overbought. If the Federal Reserve leans more toward being hawkish or indicates fewer rate reductions than expected, it has the potential to place downward pressure on prices. In that case, gold could fall back towards important support levels at $3,024 or even flirt with the psychological $3,000 threshold. A more pronounced correction can then follow if sentiment in the larger markets turns away from risk aversion.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rally Stalls at Record as Tariff Worries and Weaker U.S. Data Compel Pause

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  • February 22, 2025
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Gold rose for eight weeks running, reaching an all-time peak of $2,954 amidst uncertainty caused by widened U.S. tariffs imposed on lumber and soft commodities that further fueled market jitters. Whereas safe-haven buying drove bullion up against the backdrop of Trump’s strong trade rhetoric, conflicting U.S. economic readings—characterized by a positive Manufacturing PMI but a collapsed Services PMI, declining existing home sales, and softening consumer sentiment—kept investors tentative. Technical indicators indicate while gold’s upward bias is still intact, the possibility of retracement exists if there is a breach of major support levels around $2,900, all against the backdrop of expected monetary easing in 2025 by the Fed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s widening tariffs on lumber and soft commodities power market anxieties, driving safe-haven purchases, but pose downside risks in the context of global trade tensions. • While production improves, falling services PMI, decreasing home sales, and weaker consumer sentiment signal increasing caution. • Gold’s strength falters; an RSI exit from overbought levels and support at $2,900 could trigger a corrective pullback. • Central bank buying rose by more than 54% YoY, supporting bullishness in the face of trade uncertainty, while the Fed’s expected easing in 2025 is a long-term tailwind. Investors closely follow the deepening trade policy uncertainty as Trump’s soft commodities and lumber tariffs continue to stimulate market anxiety and safe-haven purchases. Meanwhile, diverging U.S. economic indicators come with rising manufacturing activity paired against contracting services PMI, softer home sales, and a cooling consumer mood to provide even greater caution. Technical indicators indicate that gold’s rally could be running out of steam, as the RSI leaves overbought levels and support at $2,900 is key. In addition, central bank buying jumped more than 54% YoY, and hopes for a 50 basis point Fed easing in 2025 provide additional bullish backing. Investors are paying close attention to Trump’s wider tariffs, which have sent gold prices to near historic highs due to safe-haven demand. Cautiousness may be appropriate based on mixed U.S. data and weakening technical momentum, with important support at $2,900. • Gold reached a new high of $2,954 following eight weeks of continuous increases. • Trump’s imposition of wider tariffs on lumber and soft commodities created market uncertainty. • American economic news recorded a higher Manufacturing PMI but a downgrading Services PMI. • Sinking current home sales and consumer attitudes deepened investors’ hesitations. • Indications in the technical arena show the market potentially reeling, with prime support around $2,900. • Central bank purchases surged more than 54% YoY, sustaining bull-like expectations. • Fed funds futures project that the next rate reduction will be a 50 basis point drop sometime in 2025. Gold has risen for eight straight weeks to a record $2,954 as policy uncertainty in global trade has been building. The announcement by President Trump to target tariffs on lumber and soft goods added to uncertainty in the markets, with investors turning to gold as a haven asset. Geopolitical anxiety underpinning the trend further involves ongoing diplomatic talks to calm the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has kept markets around the globe in a watchful mood. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Conversely, US economic data has a mixed report. Although there has been some resilience in manufacturing activity, softer services sector performance and weakening consumer sentiment indicate underlying economic issues. Moreover, the rise in central bank gold purchases indicates expanding optimism in the metal as a store of value. Investors continue to monitor further policy action, especially with hopes for a possible loosening by the Federal Reserve during 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis shows that although gold still has an upward bias, momentum seems to be waning since the Relative Strength Index leaves overbought conditions. Critical support is set near $2,900, and a violation of this level can open the doors for a drop towards prior swing lows. Alternatively, if the price succeeds in breaking through resistance near $2,950, it might reflect further upwards progress towards the $3,000 level. FORECAST If gold can break through important resistance levels—particularly around the psychological level of $2,950—then further bullish pressure could push prices to the $3,000 level. Positive global trade trends and ongoing central bank demand for gold could further support investor attitudes, leading to a prolonged rally and cementing the metal’s position as a safe haven. On the other hand, if gold fails to break through these resistance points or if newly released economic data indicates improved risk sentiment, a retracement back to the support level of $2,900 will be seen. A change in market fundamentals, perhaps an enhanced understanding of trade policies or good economic recovery indicators, would result in profit-taking and cause prices to pull back temporarily.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Records All-Time High as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle World Markets

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  • February 19, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) shot up to a new all-time high above $2,945 on Wednesday, extending its upward trend for the third straight day. The bull run was propelled by increased geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump re-emphasized his vow to implement 25% tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and drug imports. Naysays regarding US-Russia tensions, combined with market volatility pre-Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes report, contributed to the allure of gold as an insurance asset. Technicals present a possible challenge in the neighborhood of $2,951 and $2,966, though any dovish undertones the Fed may carry could further move gold towards psychological $3,000. There is still possible reversal, nonetheless, if sentiment responds to the economic data or Fed policy tilt. KEY LOOKOUTS • The threat of 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and drugs inspires market uncertainty and pushes gold to all-time highs. • Federal Reserve January meeting minutes may guide gold’s performance, with speculators looking for clues on next interest rate actions. • Gold is resisted at $2,951 and $2,966, with potential to push further to $3,000 in case of continuous bullish momentum. • Safe-haven demand is boosted by US-Russia tensions and Trump’s hardline on Ukraine, supporting gold prices in the face of worldwide uncertainty. Gold’s record-setting sprint to a new all-time high of over $2,945 shows the market’s responsiveness to economic and geopolitical events. With Trump’s return to tit-for-tat tariffs shaking markets and uncertainty hanging over US-Russia relations, investors are hedging against volatility with gold. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC Minutes release provides further anticipation, as any sign of policy changes could influence market mood. Although gold’s upward trend is still intact, resistance levels around $2,951 and $2,966 may hinder further advances unless a dovish Fed or rising tensions provide further impetus for the rally. Gold rockets above $2,945 on Trump tariff plans and geopolitics. Market direction is now expected from the Fed’s FOMC Minutes. • XAU/USD rockets above $2,945, its third day of advance amidst global uncertainty. • The U.S. President reaffirms 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, heightening market fears. • Trump’s aggressive stance on Ukraine and US-Russia relations further contributes to investor uncertainty, supporting gold’s safe-haven status. • Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting may affect gold’s direction based on signals about interest rate policy. • Gold has strong resistance at $2,951 and $2,966 levels, with possibilities of a run to $3,000. • The 10-year benchmark yield is just shy of 4.56%, affecting the direction of gold as market players determine risk mood. • Koza Altin’s plan to make 40+ tons of gold in five years reflects the industry’s solid demand and prospects for growth. Gold’s rise to an all-time new high is a sign of increasing investor worries on geopolitical tensions and economic policies. The recent gold price boost follows U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirming his decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. The decision has augmented concerns over trade disruption, and investors are resorting to the safety of gold as a safe-haven instrument. Furthermore, Trump’s tough statements on Ukraine have contributed to the uncertainty in the market, particularly after the initial negotiations between U.S. and Russian leaders failed to defuse tensions. In this context, investors and traders continue to pour into gold as a safe-haven asset against economic turmoil.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Beyond geopolitics, market participants are also closely watching the Federal Reserve, as its upcoming FOMC Minutes release could shape future economic policies. While several Fed officials have signaled that interest rates remain at reasonable levels, inflationary concerns persist. Gold’s ongoing strength reflects the broader uncertainty in financial markets, where investors remain cautious about global economic trends. Furthermore, gold demand continues to be strong, with Turkish miner Koza Altin detailing plans to boost production over the next few years. With fears over trade, politics, and monetary policy escalating, gold is still favored as a hedge asset for stability and long-term protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s move through $2,910 has bolstered bullish sentiment, taking prices to a new all-time high above $2,945. The next important resistance points are at $2,951 and $2,966, with a likely push to the psychological $3,000 if purchasing pressure remains. But in case gold meets with rejection near these levels, a retreat to near-term support at $2,921 could happen, and further weakness might follow at $2,906. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating conditions of overbuying, implying a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The next FOMC Minutes release may serve as a pivotal catalyst, deciding whether gold continues its upward move or experiences a short-term retracement. FORECAST Gold’s historic rally above $2,945 has fueled speculation about whether the trend will persist or experience a pullback. If geopolitical tensions rise further, especially with Trump’s belligerent approach to tariffs and Ukraine, gold may experience further upside. Safe-haven demand continues to be robust as investors hedge against economic uncertainty, and any dovish tone by the Federal Reserve in its FOMC Minutes would further push gold towards the psychological $3,000 level. Moreover, ongoing inflation worries and robust central bank purchases across the globe could continue to lend support to gold’s bullishness in the coming days. To the downside, gold is exposed to a near-term correction in case market sentiment changes. The next FOMC Minutes may provide a more sobering interest rate outlook that might dampen gold’s demand. Should the trend in rising bond yields hold, investors will rotate out of gold to move into more attractive-yielding instruments. Lastly, profit-taking at record levels may even cause gold to pull back temporarily, particularly if gold is unable to gain traction above key resistance points. A stronger dollar or positive economic indicators may also weigh on gold, causing possible retracements in the upcoming sessions.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls from Record Highs as USD Strength and Market Uncertainty Take Hold

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  • February 4, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its all-time high amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and improved economic data. While Trump’s three-month tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada gives the market hope, concern for the bigger picture still has his broader trade policies and the inflationary impact sustaining gold as a safe haven. Even on near-term consolidation, the overall trend remains bullish, with strong supports around $2,773-2,772 going to limit the downward moves. Investors remain cautious ahead of US economic data releases, which could influence both the USD and gold’s trajectory. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold loses ground from records as a resurgent US dollar and rising Treasury yields cap near-term upside potential for the yellow metal. • Fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs and their implications on inflation will continue to prop up gold as a safe-haven asset even as US-Mexico-Canada relations stabilize. • A dovish yet cautious Fed cuts, fueled by solid economic statistics, supports the USD, curtailing gold’s short-term bullish prospects. • Support lies at $2,773-2,772 with resistance at $2,830. A breakout would determine the course to be chosen for gold amid increasing market uncertainty. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats off record high; strength US Dollar, surging yields in Treasury weigh on momentum, as Trump’s timed tariff pause on Mexico and Canada bolsters market confidence, but overall worries for trade policies and a runaway inflation scenario continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts have further strengthened the USD, limiting gold’s immediate upside. However, key support at $2,773-2,772 is expected to cushion any downside, while a break above $2,830 could reignite bullish momentum. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming US economic data, which could influence gold’s trajectory. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its record high as a stronger US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields limit gains. Concerns over Trump’s trade policies and inflation support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Key levels at $2,773-2,772 provide support, while a breakout above $2,830 could signal further upside. • XAU/USD retreats from its all-time peak as a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weigh on bullish momentum. • The temporary suspension of Mexico-Canada tariffs provides a boost to market confidence, but overall trade policy fears and inflation worries keep the safe-haven appeal of gold locked in place. • Strong US economic data and the Fed’s gentle approach to cuts further support the USD, making gold less appealing in the near term. • Gold remains supported around $2,773-2,772; any drop below this could extend declines toward $2,755 and $2,725. • Bulls must overcome this level in order to get back on an uptrend and a successful breakout could propel gold to even more significant targets. • JOLTS job openings and factory orders reports, the next few days, will shape both the action of the USD and gold • Despite near-term consolidation, gold is in an uptrend as inflation worries and global economic uncertainty weigh. The US Dollar’s resurgence, which has been coupled with rebounding Treasury bond yields and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, is leading to a pullback in the gold price from its record high. Although President Trump’s move to temporarily halt tariffs on Mexico and Canada boosted investor confidence, overall concerns regarding trade wars and inflation remain. Strong US economic data, including a rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and inflation indicators, has further strengthened the greenback, making gold less attractive in the short term. However, gold remains well-positioned as a hedge against inflationary pressures, limiting the downside and keeping the overall bullish trend intact. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s near-term price action suggests consolidation, with key support around the $2,773-2,772 region. Any breakdown beneath this point would be followed by fresh declines toward $2,755 and then conceivably to $2,725. On the upside, resistance at $2,830—Monday’s record high—is the final hurdle in the way of further advances. In the case of renewed bullish momentum, an extension of the rally from December’s $2,583 low might see prices rise. Market players are closely watching the upcoming US economic data, such as JOLTS job openings and factory orders, which may give further direction for both the USD and gold’s next move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase after hitting its all-time high. The key support levels are at $2,773-2,772. A breakdown below this zone could extend losses toward $2,755 and further to the $2,725-$2,720 region. However, the bigger picture trend is still positive, and each dip will only attract buying. On the way up, near-term resistance rests at $2,830 – the recent peak – and if it breaks convincingly above here, the momentum could get fired up again with a view towards new highs. The RSI is overbought, meaning a short-term pullback into the next leg higher is quite possible. Traders will be closely monitoring price action around the important levels for possible trades. FORECAST XAU/USD price in gold keeps a positive scenario despite the short-term consolidation and still enjoys a key level resistance area at $2,830 as an important breakthrough. If the spot above this level can be sustained, the new rally towards $2,850 is expected with further continuation towards the psychological level of $2,900. The continued inflation fears, as well as uncertainty about US trade policies, could maintain demand for gold as a hedge. Also, any dovish shift by the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected US economic data will help support gold’s upside momentum. The yellow metal remains well-positioned for further gains in the medium term given the broader uptrend from December’s swing low at $2,583. Although gold has a bullish structure, the upside is capped by downside risks, mainly fueled by a rising US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields. If selling pressure increases, the first layer of defense for gold is $2,773-2,772, which is a crucial support area. A break below this level will expose the commodity to further

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Commodities Gold

XAU/USD: Gold Price Gains Momentum as Rate Cut Bets Intensify

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  • January 22, 2025
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Gold prices remain firm near multi-month highs, driven by safe-haven demand amid global trade uncertainties and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, coupled with fears of a fresh trade war, has boosted the appeal of the yellow metal. While a modest recovery in the US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields pose minor headwinds, the overall bullish sentiment persists. Technically, a breakout above key resistance levels suggests further upside potential, with any corrective pullback likely viewed as a buying opportunity. The outlook remains favorable for gold, with bullish traders eyeing a potential challenge to the all-time high. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trade war fears and geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive investors towards gold, solidifying its status as a safe-haven asset amid global market volatility. • Expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed this year boost gold’s appeal, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. • A break above $2,750 resistance may further intensify the bullishness of the market, and crucial support is seen near $2,720 and $2,690. • The Small bull recovery in the US Dollar may cap gold’s gains. Generally, dollar volatility is going to be a key watch for short-term direction. The gold market continues to hold near multi-month highs, supported by a global flight to safety amidst rising geopolitical concerns and a potential trade war. The potential for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year has also boosted the demand for gold, as non-yielding assets are favored under lower interest rates. A modest recovery in the US dollar and rebounding Treasury yields pose temporary headwinds, but overall sentiment remains bullish. Technically, a decisive breakout above the $2,750 resistance could pave the way for further gains, while support levels near $2,720 and $2,690 are key to sustaining the positive momentum. Gold prices remain near multi-month highs, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts. A breakout above $2,750 could signal further gains, while $2,720 acts as key support. • Gold benefits from global uncertainties and trade war fears, attracting investors as a reliable safe-haven asset. • Expectations of two rate cuts this year enhance the appeal of gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. • Concerns over US trade policies and global trade wars drive sustained demand for the yellow metal. • A modest recovery in the US Dollar poses minor resistance to gold’s upward momentum. • A breakout above the $2,750 mark could trigger further bullish momentum in gold prices. • Price corrections may find support near $2,720 and $2,690, limiting potential downside risks. • Positive oscillators on the daily chart and a breakout through resistance zones point to continued bullish sentiment for gold. Gold prices remain resilient near multi-month highs, driven by robust safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical uncertainties and trade war fears. The concerns of markets over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including probable tariffs, continue to fuel interest in the yellow metal. Secondly, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut twice this year support gold, as less interest reduces the opportunity cost to hold non-yielding assets. Despite a moderate bounce in the US Dollar and resurging US Treasury yields, the underlying remains conducive for more upside for gold prices. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView Prepared By ELLYANA Gold prices continue to trend upwards, boosted by strong safe haven demand amid concerns of a global trade war and the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The recent breakout above the $2,720 resistance zone has reinforced bullish sentiment, with $2,750 emerging as the next critical level to watch. While a modest recovery in the US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields may temporarily cap gains, the overall outlook remains positive. Technical indicators suggest room for further upside, with any pullbacks likely finding support near $2,720 and $2,690. Traders remain optimistic about a potential challenge to the all-time high of $2,790. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a technical perspective, gold prices have broken through key resistance levels, signaling strong bullish momentum. The recent breakout above the $2,720 supply zone acts as a trigger for further upside, with $2,750 emerging as the next significant resistance. The oscillators on the daily chart are still firmly in positive territory and show no signs of being overbought, which opens up more room for further gains. The key support levels are located near $2,720 and $2,690, and any corrective pullbacks are expected to attract buying interest. A sustained move above $2,750 could pave the way for gold to challenge the all-time high of $2,790, keeping the bullish outlook intact. FORECAST Prices for the yellow metal will likely remain positive, influenced by safe-haven demand due to continuing geopolitical uncertainty and trade war tensions. The non-yielding metal is also likely to be further supported by potential cuts from the Federal Reserve, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Technically speaking, a follow-through above $2,750 may provide room to surge all the way up toward the record at $2,790 as more bullish oscillators will also leave much more upside left to come. The metal should see renewed interest to purchase as gold attracts the bullish capital on further rallies into such an unpredictable market period. Positive drivers notwithstanding, the rebound in the US Dollar and ongoing recovery in US Treasury yields could dampen the upside a bit in the short term, unless the support above the $2,720-$2,690 range can be sustained. If that breaks down, technical selling would ensue, taking the price all the way to the $2,660 zone. Other downside risks will arise if the risk-on environment can intensify from lower tensions or more positive than expected economic data. In such a scenario, prices of gold would retrace back towards the $2,625 confluence, being a critical juncture that forms the 100-day EMA and an ascending trendline – which may act as a decisive point for determination of the future directional move.

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