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Commodities Gold

Gold Rallies in the Face of Intensifying Trade War: Safe-Haven Demand and Market Uncertainty Push Prices Up

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  • March 4, 2025
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Gold jumped more than 1% as intensifying trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China drove demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from these nations, leading to retaliatory actions, including a 25% tariff from Canada and up to 15% levies from China on U.S. agricultural goods. The trade war uncertainty, combined with weakening U.S. Treasury yields at a five-month low, has bolstered the appeal of gold. Technicals are pointing towards more bullish pressure, with the main resistance at $2,917 and possible support at $2,866. Market players are also watching Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, which have climbed to 85.6%, further shaping the path of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • The back-and-forth tariffs among the U.S., Canada, and China are also sparking uncertainty and leading investors towards safe-haven investments such as gold. • The U.S. 10-year yield registered a five-month low at 4.11%, making gold even more appealing as a bet against economic unrest and inflation. • With 85.6% chances of a Fed interest rate cut within six months, falling interest rates would further continue gold’s momentum. • Gold is resisting at $2,917 while support at $2,866 is critical to break in order to avoid another fall in the market. Gold is gaining further traction as rising trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China push investors towards safe-haven. The move by the U.S. to impose retaliatory tariffs, such as Canada’s 25% tariff on American imports and China’s 15% tariffs on agricultural products, has increased market uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a five-month low of 4.11%, enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic turmoil further. As Federal Reserve rate cut hopes surged to 85.6% by June, decreasing interest rates could be supportive of gold prices further. From a technical standpoint, gold has resistance at $2,917, and support at $2,866 has to remain firm to avoid further downward pressure. Gold holds up as rising tensions in trade pressure safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury yields decline to a five-month low. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also stand at 85.6% and back bullish sentiment further, as central resistance at $2,917 and support at $2,866 will indicate the next move. • Tariffs imposed by the U.S., Canada, and China continue to fuel the uncertainty in markets and raise the safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold rose more than 1% and trades at about $2,910 on concerns of trade war and weakening U.S. Treasury yields. • The U.S. 10-year yield reached a five-month low at 4.11%, contributing to gold’s appeal as an alternative asset. • Market odds for a Fed rate cut within six months are up to 85.6%, further supporting gold’s bullishness. • Gold is encountering resistance at $2,917, with the record high of $2,956 the next big level to respect. • Support at $2,866 is vital to stave off more losses, with further support available at $2,842 in case selling rises. • Congested price bars signal uncertainty on the part of investors, while safe-haven demand is due to keep gold propped up against further backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gold continues to be in focus for investors amid rising trade tensions between the U.S., China, and Canada. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to charge tariffs on Chinese and Canadian imports has sparked reprisals with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on American goods and China imposing 15% tariffs on major agriculture products. This back-and-forth trade war has spurred economic volatility, causing safe-haven asset demand to increase, such as gold. With global markets responding to the latest disagreements, investors are keeping an eye on further policy actions and economic reactions from the involved countries. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Also, concerns regarding the general economic outlook still shape investor mood. The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure to reduce interest rates, with market expectations for a rate cut by June reaching 85.6%. Geopolitical news, such as the U.S. temporarily suspending military aid to Ukraine, also contributes to the uncertainty. As inflation worries linger and economic growth continues to slow, the position of gold as a hedge against uncertainty will continue to be strong, rendering it an attractive asset for conservative investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to exhibit good momentum, building on its recent gains as market uncertainty persists. The price is currently consolidating in a tight band, demonstrating indecision from investors following last week’s volatility. The intraday Pivot Point of $2,879 is acting as the main support, with resistance at $2,917 being the next level to monitor for further upward movement. If the bullish momentum continues, a possible test of the all-time high of $2,956 is still on the cards. On the bearish side, $2,866 is a very important support level, corresponding to earlier lows. A fall below this level may result in additional selling pressure towards $2,842. Investors need to keep a close eye on these levels, as any breakout would determine the direction of the next trend. FORECAST The bullish momentum in gold is still intact as global uncertainties push investors towards safe-haven assets. If trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China continue to escalate, gold prices may witness a further rally. A breakout above the crucial resistance at $2,917 could drive prices towards the all-time high of $2,956. Moreover, growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June can also add to gold’s upside, as lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar weaker and hence gold more desirable. If inflation fears continue along with slowing growth, gold could stay in favor, and upward pressure on prices would persist. Conversely, any easing of trade tensions or diplomatic breakthroughs can dampen gold’s safe-haven appeal. A rising U.S. dollar, potentially driven by more positive economic readings or lowered expectations for interest-rate cuts, would also serve as a potential damper for gold prices. In the event that selling builds momentum, falling through the significant support at $2,866 might lead to more losses to $2,842. More profound correction can

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall With USD Strength, Trade Policy Risks: Reactions and Forecast

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  • March 1, 2025
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Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, reaching $2,845, as the US Dollar rose to a 10-day high of 107.66 on concerns about increasing trade policy risks and recession. The market responded violently to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the expectation of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 with the first cut expected in June. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also indicated that progress toward the 2% inflation goal was being made, further stoking speculation of monetary ease. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped modestly, underpinning the USD rally, and traders took profits before the weekend. In spite of the recent bearish pressure, Goldman Sachs kept its medium-term bullish call, predicting the price of gold to hit $3,100 by the last quarter of 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar rallied in light of increasing trade tensions, as Trump levied 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, triggering market anxiety and recession jitters. • Markets expect a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, with the initial cut expected in June, which may affect gold prices and investor attitudes. • XAU/USD has critical support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900, with bearish momentum ongoing as traders take profits and rebalance portfolios. • In spite of short-term declines, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, forecasting gold prices to touch $3,100 by 2025-end. Gold prices have come under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% this week as the US Dollar gained strength in the face of increasing trade tensions and recession concerns. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China has created market uncertainty, pushing investors towards the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in June, have further influenced market sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s Core PCE Price Index signaled steady progress toward the 2% inflation target, reinforcing speculation of policy easing. Technically, XAU/USD struggles below $2,850, with key support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900. In spite of the recent decline, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about the long-term prospects, predicting gold prices to reach $3,100 by the end of 2025. Gold prices dived more than 3% this week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of trade policy worries and recession risk. Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada heightened market uncertainty, and the prospect of a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025 contributed to volatility. In the short term, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, predicting gold to hit $3,100 by the close of 2025. • XAU/USD dropped to $2,845 as the US Dollar gained strength due to trade tensions and recession fears. • The US imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China, creating uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 107.66, putting pressure on gold prices and drawing investors due to economic worries. • Markets are expecting a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, starting with the June cut, guiding gold’s movement. • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell modestly, driven by fears of economic slowdown and even monetary easing. • Gold has resistance at $2,900 and support at $2,800, as bearish momentum continues in the short term. • In spite of recent setbacks, Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, holding an upbeat long-term estimate. Gold prices came under heavy pressure this week as global economic issues and policy announcements influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar rallied with increased trade tensions, with President Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% on Chinese imports. These policies have contributed to economic uncertainty worldwide, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets and review their portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also showed consistent advancement toward the 2% goal, supporting expectations of monetary policy loosening in the months ahead. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, market attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with investors expecting a 70-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the initial cut expected in June. As growth forecasts for the economy change, worries about a possible recession continue to guide investments. The Atlanta Fed’s most recent GDPNow estimate is an indicator that the US economy is going into contraction, fueling speculation for future policy action. In the midst of these developments, financial markets across the globe are on tenterhooks, with investors keenly watching economic signals and policy initiatives that may impact financial markets over the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Precious gold prices have shown a bearish trend, posting consecutive losses as investors take profits and rebalance portfolios. XAU/USD was unable to sustain above the $2,850 level after dipping from its high point of $2,885, with major support at $2,800. A fall below this level would reveal further downside to the October 31 high at $2,790 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770. Support on the upside is at $2,900, then the year-to-date high of $2,956. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.229% has so far capped bullion’s rally, with falling real yields presenting ambivalent cues for gold’s next direction. With sustained market volatility, investors are on guard, weighing whether gold can stabilize or continue to lose ground. FORECAST Gold prices can expect bullish pressure in the next few months if market fears continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2025, with the first decrease scheduled for June, will weaken the US Dollar, making gold more desirable to investors. Furthermore, should inflationary forces continue or there is a ratcheting of geopolitical tensions, gold may turn stronger again with possible resistance areas at $2,900 and the year-high of $2,956. Long-term views, like that of Goldman Sachs’ expectation that gold will trade at $3,100 through the end of 2025, suggest the metal will

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dives to Three-Week Low in Face of Steeper USD and Fed Policy Sentiment Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have fallen to a three-week low, closer to the $2,850 level, after a steeper US Dollar and anticipation of the Federal Reserve extending its hawkish policy pushed it lower. While there has been a risk-off market mood as well as lower US Treasury bond yields, the precious metal persists in its bearish trend for the second session in a row. Investors are waiting with bated breath for the coming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation gauge that may shape the Fed’s interest rate view and dictate gold’s short-term direction. Technicals also paint a bearish picture, with more room for decline if support levels are broken. KEY LOOKOUTS • A generally firmer USD continues to weigh on gold prices as investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the face of ongoing inflation fears. • The release of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is likely to impact Fed interest rate decisions and may determine the direction of gold in the near future. • Gold has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which could mean an extended decline if major support levels near $2,800 hold firm. • Investors are wary of global economic risks, such as possible inflationary pressures from Trump’s planned tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and European Union imports. Gold prices continue to decline, hitting a three-week low of about $2,850 as a firmer US Dollar and the anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve dampen the market. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation indicator that may affect the Fed’s interest rate policy and, in turn, gold’s direction. Gold is still under selling pressure despite a risk-off mood and declining US Treasury yields. Technical indicators are signaling further weakness if major support levels, especially around $2,800, are broken. Moreover, market anxiety regarding possible inflationary impacts from Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and the European Union contributes to uncertainty in gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices declined to a three-week low around $2,850 due to a stronger USD and the anticipation of a hawkish Fed. Market participants are waiting for US PCE inflation data that could have implications for interest rates and gold’s direction. Technical indicators indicate more downside if support levels are breached. • XAU/USD declines around $2,850 as a stronger US Dollar weighs down on the market. • The US Dollar remains on the mend with expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. • Market participants look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for guidance on the Fed’s next step. • Policymakers focus on taming inflation, dampening expectations of rate cuts. • Gold falls below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating further losses if major support around $2,800 breaks. • In spite of market uncertainties, gold finds it difficult to attract safe-haven demand. • Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU can affect inflation and guide gold’s direction. Gold prices continue to be pressured due to a firming US Dollar and anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve depressing market sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is a key inflation indicator, is in the spotlight as market participants seek guidance on future interest rate action. As inflation fears continue, Fed policymakers have signaled a prudent stance towards cutting interest rates, supporting the Dollar’s strength. Moreover, recent evidence of steady US economic growth also makes the argument for maintaining interest rates high, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical and trade-related concerns contribute to the uncertainty. Investors are intently watching proposed tariffs by former US President Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, which can be inflationary in nature. These trade measures can influence global economic stability, shaping market sentiment for safe-haven assets. In the meanwhile, falling US Treasury bond yields and general risk-off market conditions have not gone far in favor of gold since traders are staying guarded before critical economic data and policy indications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has fallen beneath significant support points, suggesting potential extension of its corrective decline. The price has fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line of the rally from December through February, portending growing bearish momentum. Daily chart oscillators are establishing negative momentum, supporting the chance for further falls. If the sellers force the price down below the $2,855 level, the next major support is close to the $2,834 area, and then the 38.2% Fibonacci of $2,815-$2,810. A clear fall below the psychological $2,800 level could seal a bearish reversal. Conversely, a bounce above $2,867 might encounter resistance around the $2,885-$2,900 area, with continuous buying potentially revealing the all-time high of $2,956. FORECAST Gold may strengthen if future US economic releases, especially the PCE Price Index, indicate decelerating inflation, leading to hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve. A lower inflation reading can raise the chances of interest rate reductions, weakening the US Dollar and strengthening demand for gold as a safe-haven. Should gold recover the $2,867 resistance level, it may probe the $2,885-$2,900 zone, while a sustained breakout may propel it towards the $2,915 level. Stronger follow-through buying could take prices even closer to the lifetime high of $2,956 as buying interest picks up. Against the downside, gold will continue to be at risk if inflation does not recede and Fed officials continue to hint at a hawkish bias, underpinning the resilience of the US Dollar. A failure at levels above $2,855 would unleash a further bout of selling pressure that would push the price towards $2,834 support. A firm break beneath the $2,815-$2,810 zone would invite a slide toward the important psychological level of $2,800. If fear prevails, further losses look likely, that could push the price below $2,780, indicating an extended correction off recent highs.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Floats Close to Weekly Lows Despite Increasing US Bond Yields and Trade Risk

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  • February 27, 2025
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Gold prices are under strain, trading close to a weekly low of less than $2,900 as increasing US Treasury bond yields strengthen the US Dollar. A minor USD rebound combined with a good equity market mood has dented demand for the safe-haven metal. Nonetheless, volatility regarding US President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy and persisting concerns about the ongoing trade war lends some support to XAU/USD. While in the meantime hopes for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts based on indications that the US economy is slowing offer a cap to gold losses, market participants look to future US economic releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index, for more market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher US Treasury bond yields are favoring the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices and capping upside moves. • Doubts surrounding President Trump’s plans on tariffs, especially on imports from the EU, Mexico, and Canada, can affect safe-haven demand for gold. • Market expectations of more Fed rate cuts due to weakening US economic growth can act as a floor to gold, capping its downside. • Major releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will provide new information about economic conditions and gold price action. Gold prices are still volatile as investors closely watch major economic and geopolitical events. The increasing US Treasury bond yields have supported the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on the precious metal. In the meantime, uncertainty regarding President Trump’s tariffs strategies, particularly possible levies on European goods, persists and continues to move markets. Regardless of these bearish elements, hopes for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts as evidenced by slowing US growth could offer some purchasing pressure support for gold. Further, near-term US economic data releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will be instrumental in deciding the future direction for XAU/USD. Gold prices remain under pressure as rising US bond yields strengthen the US Dollar, weighing on the metal. Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans and expectations of Fed rate cuts may influence price movements. Key US economic data, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, will provide further direction. • XAU/USD trades below $2,900, pressured by rising US bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. • A US Treasury yield rally strengthens the USD, putting downward pressure on gold prices. • New tariffs on EU imports and Mexican and Canadian tariff delays instill market uncertainty, affecting gold demand. • Market speculation of additional Fed rate cuts in a slowing US economy can be bullish for gold. • Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will be key drivers of short-term gold price action. • The key support is at $2,888, and a break below $2,860 could initiate further weakness down to $2,800. • A breakout above $2,920 may see selling pressure around $2,930, but persistent strength can drive gold up to $2,950-$2,955 resistance. Gold prices continue to be shaped by general economic and geopolitical conditions as investors weigh the effects of increasing US bond yields and trade tensions. The rising US Dollar, bolstered by a recovery in Treasury yields, continues to pressure the precious metal. But worries over President Trump’s tariff policies, including possible tariffs on European imports and ongoing trade tensions with Mexico and Canada, foster an environment of uncertainty. These geopolitical trends tend to propel safe-haven demand, making gold still a part of investors’ investment portfolios. Further Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, fueled by the indications of an economic growth slowdown, may also influence gold’s long-term attractiveness. GOLD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Market participants are now keenly observing the significant US economic data releases that may further indicate the economic outlook. Data releases like Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will assist in assessing the US economy’s strength and impact investor mood. Further guidance on the central bank’s future monetary policy may also be provided by speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Against these events, gold continues to be an asset of interest, with investors weighing its safe-haven attraction against changing macroeconomic fundamentals. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are immediately supported at the $2,888 level, with further downside risk to the $2,860-$2,855 area if bearish momentum continues. A break below this area would increase selling pressure, driving prices towards the $2,834 level and potentially the psychological $2,800 level. To the upside, resistance is found near the $2,920 level, with further selling pressure anticipated around the $2,930 area. A continued breakout above this barrier may set the stage for additional gains towards the $2,950-$2,955 resistance zone, which is the record high achieved earlier this week. The next direction will be closely monitored by traders through price action at these significant levels. FORECAST Gold prices might experience increased downward pressure in the near term on account of a rising US Dollar and an increase in Treasury bond yields. As the USD recovers from multi-month lows, investor psychology can be inclined towards riskier assets, decreasing demand for the safe-haven metal. Further, a bullish sentiment in equity markets and confusion over US tariff policies can be adding to short-term selling pressure. If bearish momentum grows, gold may test lower supports at $2,860, with further downside potential towards $2,834 or even $2,800. On the plus side, gold still has recovery potential if macroeconomic conditions become favorable to it. Rising hopes of cuts in Federal Reserve rates, underpinned by evidence of declining US economic growth, may raise gold demand since lower interest rates lower the opportunity cost of carrying non-yielding assets. Apart from that, geopolitical tensions in the form of trade uncertainties with regards to President Trump’s policy of tariffs might underpin safe-haven purchasing. If gold is able to overcome the $2,920 resistance level, it could gain more momentum towards the $2,950-$2,955 zone, with the possibility of testing new highs if positive sentiment continues to build.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Retreats On Profit-Taking, But Bullish Momentum Intact

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  • February 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its intraday drop from a record high, falling to the $2,929 area as investors take profits. Yet, worries about US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts still support the precious metal. In spite of a modest recovery in the US Dollar, softer macroeconomic data and gold-backed ETF inflows support the bullish view. Short-term consolidation or a mild pullback is probable, but the general direction is higher, with robust support at $2,920-$2,915. Market participants now look to important US economic releases and FOMC speeches for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Robust support around $2,920-$2,915 may see dip buyers, capping further losses. • FOMC commentary and US economic reports could issue new directional impulses for XAU/USD. • The levels of $2,900 and $2,880 serve as pivotal support zones, while an upward break over recent highs will trigger additional strength. Price of gold remains under the microscope as it pullbacks from fresh record highs through profit-taking but the overall upward trend remains very much in tact. Market sentiment is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over US trade policies, which continue to support demand for the safe-haven metal. Strong technical support near the $2,920-$2,915 zone may attract dip buyers, preventing deeper losses. Meanwhile, upcoming US economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index and PCE Price Index, along with FOMC speeches, could influence the next move in XAU/USD. Traders are on guard, monitoring major support and resistance levels for additional price action. Gold price pulls back from highs on profit-taking, yet Fed rate cut expectations and fear of trade war ensure bullish drive continues. Major support around $2,920-$2,915 would catch dip buyers, though future US economic releases may dictate future price action. • Gold price pulls back from highs as traders take profits, though overall bullish trend continues. • Bets on additional Federal Reserve rate cuts underpin the non-yielding bullion, capping deeper losses. • US President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs increase economic uncertainty, enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Firm buying interest anticipated in the $2,920-$2,915 area, followed by $2,900 and $2,880 as key downside levels. • A modest recovery in the US Dollar places some pressure on gold, but softer macroeconomic data maintains bullish sentiment. • Investors look to US Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Manufacturing Index, and PCE Price Index for new market signals. • Latest numbers reflect the highest weekly inflow in physically backed gold ETFs since March 2022, reflecting gold’s high demand. Investors are focusing on gold because market mood is driven by policy choices and economic uncertainties. Profit-taking saw some back-tracking from new highs, though, but the deeper drivers in terms of concern around trade war risks and the possibility of Fed rate cuts have ensured its use as a haven asset remains supported. With potential escalations on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs being a danger signal for international markets, market players are all ears for their implications. Furthermore, the most recent economic indicators indicate a slowdown, further boosting the demand for gold as an economic stability hedge. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Investor demand for gold-backed ETFs has also increased, with the biggest weekly inflow since March 2022, indicating ongoing confidence in the metal. In the meantime, Federal Reserve policymakers are still cautious on future rate moves, highlighting the requirement for additional economic clarity before additional cuts. As inflation reports and consumer confidence data are revealed, gold is still a favored asset in times of market uncertainty. Investors and traders are still watching geopolitical events and economic data, keeping gold on their radar as a long-term volatility hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a consolidation phase after hitting all-time highs, with solid support at the $2,920-$2,915 area. The price action indicates that the recent dip is actually a temporary correction and not a trend reversal, as the overall bullish momentum is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the overbought area, suggesting possible short-term consolidation before another move upward. If gold holds support at $2,900, it may draw new buying interest, while a clean break below this level could set the stage for further losses to the $2,880-$2,855 area. Resistance is close to recent highs, and a breakout above those levels could set the stage for additional gains. Traders will be watching closely for upcoming US economic data and Fed commentary for possible direction. FORECAST Gold’s bullish impulse continues to ride high, supported by hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global economic unrest keeping the safe-haven commodity buoyant. Should market sentiment be in the direction of yet more monetary policy loosening, gold may re-ignite its buying interest with prices potentially approaching new highs. A break sustained above recent tops may set up for more strength, with fund demand and ETF inflows also serving as supplementary drivers. Any indication of heightened economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions would help further boost the appeal of gold, maintaining the bearish trend intact. Downside, gold could witness occasional pullbacks on account of profit-taking and short-term US Dollar strength. In case of failure of key supports around levels of $2,920-$2,915, a more significant correction towards the levels of $2,900 and $2,880 is possible. Strong economic reports or a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials may also put pressure on gold, causing short-term losses. As long as the overall trend is positive, however, dips will tend to draw in new buyers, capping deeper losses and supporting gold’s long-term trend.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

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  • February 21, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold’s Rally Gains Momentum on US-Russia Peace Negotiations and Market Sentiment

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  • February 18, 2025
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Gold maintains its rally for the second day running, reaching over $2,900 as market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions boost demand for the precious metal. The peace negotiations between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia have also boosted investor appetite, while Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for gold to $3,100 per ounce. With inflation worries and changing Federal Reserve policy, traders are paying close attention to key resistance points, and a daily close above $2,910 could lay the groundwork for a new all-time high. But technical indicators, including an overbought RSI, point to a potential cooling-off period before additional gains.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors are intently following US-Russia peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia since any significant result has the potential to influence considerably the safe-haven status of gold and its price movement. • Remarks from Fed officials like Patrick Harker and Mary Daly can impact sentiment in the markets, especially about interest rate announcements and inflation projections. • A close above $2,910 on a daily basis may signal a bullish break, with bulls targeting $2,921 and the all-time high of $2,942 as important resistance levels. • Trump’s delays and exclusions in trade policy are generating economic uncertainty, reaffirming the position of gold as a value store amid world trade worries. Gold’s pace is strong with traders keeping close tabs on key geopolitical and economic events. US-Russia peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia are the primary point of interest, with any advancement having the ability to shift sentiment in markets. Comments by Federal Reserve officials on inflation and interest rates would also impact gold’s direction, particularly following Patrick Harker’s comments on leaving current rates alone. A close above $2,910 daily would affirm bull strength, with buyers targeting resistance at $2,921 and the all-time high of $2,942. At the same time, uncertainty over US tariff policies continues to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s rally persists as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty fuel demand, with traders closely monitoring key resistance levels for a possible all-time high. US-Russia peace talks and Federal Reserve policies continue to be key drivers of market sentiment. • Gold extends rally to $2,910 amid geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty lifting demand for safe-haven precious metal. • Investors keep their eyes on developments in Saudi Arabia, where breakthroughs could revive gold’s appeal as a haven. • Public comments by Fed officials on interest rates and inflation may affect direction of gold, with traders keeping an eye for policy cues. • The gold forecast for the year-end has been raised to $3,100 per ounce by the investment bank, which attributes this to central bank purchases and ETF inflows. • A close above $2,910 on any given day will indicate more bullish momentum, and the major resistance levels are $2,921 and the all-time high at $2,942. • Trade policy delays and exclusions during Trump’s administration are building economic uncertainty, making gold’s appeal as a hedge stronger. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling overbought levels, meaning traders can hold off for a dip in price before opening new positions. Gold remains in its bullish trend, breaking above $2,900 as investors clamor for the safe haven amidst geopolitical and economic tensions. US-Russia peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia continue to be a key area of interest, with any advancement having the potential to influence gold as a safe-haven asset. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials such as Patrick Harker and Mary Daly will also appear, giving future interest rate directions. Since the Fed is showing caution regarding inflation, market actors are paying particular attention to looking for signs which can guide the direction of gold. In between, Goldman Sachs has increased the year-end bullion target price to $3,100 an ounce on solid central bank buying and rising flows into bullion-backed ETFs. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s rally goes on as it crosses $2,900 on the back of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Investors are waiting with bated breath for US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia, which may affect gold’s safe-haven demand. In addition, Federal Reserve officials’ future comments on inflation and interest rates might further shape market sentiment. Goldman Sachs’ updated year-end forecast of $3,100 an ounce emphasizes strong central bank demand and ETF inflows underpinning the metal’s bullishness. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical position of gold continues to be bullish, with the price recovering main resistance at $2,910 and positioning the market for increased gains. Closing above this price on the daily chart would support the bullish move, with players targeting the subsequent resistance at $2,921 and the historic high of $2,942. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is, however, showing signs of overbuying, warning that the market action could get overheated. This implies the possibility of a pullback or consolidation before another breakout. Target levels to monitor are $2,893, which has already held through the Asian session, and $2,881 as the next key downside target. A break below these would initiate a short-term correction, but overall momentum is strong for further upside. FORECAST Gold’s upward momentum persists as it remains above key resistance at $2,910, indicating further potential gains. Should prices close above this mark, the next resistance target would be $2,921, with $2,942 being the all-time high. Breaking above $2,942 would take gold towards Goldman Sachs’ updated year-end target of $3,100 per ounce on the back of robust central bank demand and safe-haven appetite. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Russia peace talks and worldwide trade uncertainties, would lead investors to gold, further supporting its bullish trend. Gold has a potential downside risk even after the strong rally because overbought technical readings are present. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price is reaching dangerous levels of overheating, which may correct or consolidate before another increase. Immediate support is at $2,893, with $2,881 providing further support as buffers against a further drop. If selling pressure continues to build, then gold may fall towards $2,860 or even lower if Federal Reserve officials indicate a less

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Steady Near $2,900: Market Sentiment, USD Influence, and Prospects Ahead

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  • February 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stable near the $2,900 level, buoyed by persistent fears of a global trade war owing to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff measures. Though the precious metal gains from a softer US Dollar in the wake of disappointing retail sales figures, the market remains on guard as the Federal Reserve continues to stick to its hawkish stance. Optimism in US-Russia peace negotiations and positive risk mood have capped gains. Technically, gold’s positive bias holds good, with important resistance levels at $2,925 and an all-time high at $2,943, and key support levels of $2,885 and $2,855. Any solid break below $2,785 would lead to a sharp correction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Fears over Trump’s possible trade tariffs, such as on autos, may propel safe-haven demand for gold, greatly affecting price action. • The Fed’s aggressive stance and anticipation of extended higher rates can affect gold’s attractiveness, with market now looking towards a possible rate cut in September. • USD movement, as driven by economic releases and Treasury yields, is still a pivotal determinant of gold’s short-term price direction. • Gold is resisted at $2,925 and $2,943, while significant support levels at $2,885 and $2,855 may determine the next market direction. Gold price is still sensitive to various issues, such as US tariff policy, Federal Reserve actions, and the US Dollar strength. Increased fear of Trump’s possible trade tariffs, especially on cars, has supported safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, sentiment remains skewed towards a September Fed rate cut over year-end, which is supporting market views. The price action of the US Dollar, fueled by Treasury yields and economic data, is instrumental in setting the near-term gold direction. Technically, resistance around $2,925 and $2,943 could cap advances, with support around $2,885 and $2,855 being the game-changers in stopping a steeper correction. Gold price fluctuates around $2,900, pushed by US tariff worries, Fed actions, and USD fluctuations. Important resistance at $2,925 and support at $2,885 are still pivotal. • Gold price holds steady at the $2,900 level, buoyed by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical and economic risks. • Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs and possible automobile tariffs stoke fear of a worldwide trade war, making gold more attractive. • The hawkishness of the Fed and anticipation of a rate cut delay influence gold’s short-term price action. • A bearish US Dollar, fueled by poor US Retail Sales figures, has temporarily boosted gold prices. • US-Russia talks, as well as increased tensions in Ukraine, bolster gold’s safe-haven demand. • The resistance is found at $2,925 and $2,943, and the key support areas are at $2,885 and $2,855, dictating price action. • A combination of risk-on mood and tension about inflation impacts gold’s ability to hold gains or correct lower. Gold price continues to be technically resilient, holding on to its bullish foundation around the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off from overbought levels, diminishing the likelihood of an immediate correction while continuing to support additional upside potential. Critical resistance levels to monitor are $2,925, followed by the all-time high around $2,943. A successful breakout above this area could stimulate fresh buying, continuing the uptrend and opening the door to higher levels. Moving averages also show a strong bullish trend, supporting the potential for additional gains if market conditions continue to be favorable. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the downside, near-term support is at $2,885, followed by a more robust support area around $2,855 and $2,834. If gold falls below these levels, buyers might come in to support the uptrend, capping losses. Still, a clear-cut breakdown below $2,800 might turn sentiment to bearish side, causing a more extensive correction towards $2,785-$2,784. Participants also need to keep an eye on global economic news, specifically US interest rate expectations and geopolitics, that might fuel volatility and impact gold’s price movements in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price continues to be in bullish territory, sustaining itself at the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from the overbought territory, indicating scope for further action, with other oscillators remaining in positive favor. Near-term resistance is at $2,925, with the all-time high around $2,943. A convincing breakout above this level would propel fresh buying momentum, extending the current uptrend. Support is seen at $2,885 on the downside, with firm demand likely at $2,855 and $2,834. A break below $2,800 with continued momentum would indicate a deeper correction, and possibly a bearish change in direction. FORECAST Gold price is well-set up for additional gains, with good technical support and safe-haven demand being major drivers. If the price holds above the $2,900 level, an initial drive up towards the $2,925 resistance level is anticipated. A clean breakout above this level can see gold challenge its all-time high of $2,943, and if the momentum continues, it might stretch further to $2,960-$2,975. Events like continued US Dollar weakness, heightened geopolitical tensions, or a dovish turn in the Federal Reserve stance may further accelerate the rally in gold. Gold’s positive outlook notwithstanding, downside risks are present. If the price is rejected at resistance levels and goes below $2,885, it may lead to a pullback to $2,855 and then to $2,834. A breach below the crucial psychological level of $2,800 would mark a change in sentiment, leading to a more significant correction to $2,785 or even $2,750. Improved US economic data, a US Dollar rebound, or decreased geopolitical tensions may cap gold’s upside and mount selling pressure in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise Despite Market Uncertainty: Investors Look to Fed Rate Reductions and Central Bank Buying

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  • February 15, 2025
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Gold prices are poised to post a weekly gain of more than 0.80%, following a Friday dip, as investors absorb soft US Retail Sales data and declining Treasury yields. The US Dollar declined, boosting bullion’s appeal, while markets factored in more than a single Federal Reserve rate reduction, further bolstering gold’s longer-term prospects. Central bank buying continues to be robust, with more than 1,000 tons purchased for the third year in a row, supporting gold’s bullishness. Technically, XAU/USD is still in an uptrend, with support at $2,850 and resistance around its all-time high of $2,942. Traders continue to watch FOMC minutes and upcoming economic releases for additional price guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Multiple Fed rate cuts are being priced in by investors, enhancing gold’s attractiveness as the lowering of interest rates lessens the opportunity cost of holding bullion. • A weakening US Dollar, caused by disappointing retail sales, is making gold look more attractive as a safe-haven asset with economic uncertainty. • Central banks worldwide continue heavy gold purchases at more than 1,000 tons for the third year running, strengthening long-term bullish trend. • Gold has crucial resistance at $2,942, with the potential breakout point at $3,000, and support at $2,850 and $2,790 in the event of pullbacks. Gold continues to be poised for significant gains as several factors underpin its bullish trend. Disappointingly low US Retail Sales have stoked a dip in the US Dollar, bolstering gold’s safe-haven status. Investors are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering Treasury yields and making non-yielding assets such as gold more appealing. Moreover, central bank buying is still going through the roof, with more than 1,000 tons of gold purchased for the third year in a row, bolstering demand. Technically, although gold encounters resistance at its all-time high of $2,942, a breakout has the potential to drive prices to the $3,000 level, while support levels are critical at $2,850 and $2,790. Gold will close the week with strong gains in spite of Friday’s decline, propelled by softer US Retail Sales, weakening US Dollar, and rising Fed rate cut probabilities. Central bank buying keeps surging, supporting long-term fundamentals. Strong resistance at $2,942, with a possible breakout to $3,000. • Gold will close the week 0.80% higher in spite of a Friday pullback, demonstrating exceptional bullish sentiment. • Weaker-than-projected US Retail Sales caused a weakening US Dollar, improving gold’s safe-haven demand. • Investors expect several Federal Reserve rate cuts, lowering Treasury yields and making gold even more appealing. • Global central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third year in a row, consolidating long-term bullish pressure. • The Greenback reached yearly lows, supporting higher gold prices further. • Major resistance is at $2,942, with the possibility of moving towards $3,000 if the buyers are able to maintain momentum. • Gold’s nearest support is at $2,850, then key levels at $2,790 and $2,730 in the event of a retracement. Gold is set to end the week with robust gains of 0.80%, despite Friday’s pullback, as investors respond to softer US Retail Sales and declining Treasury yields. The US Dollar has depreciated strongly, touching all-time lows on a yearly basis, and has further improved gold’s position as a safe haven. Second, investors now have priced in several Federal Reserve rate cuts, resulting in bond yields falling and making non-yielding assets such as gold attractive. Central bank demand also continues to be a primary driving force, as more than 1,000 tons of gold bought for the third year running continues its long-term bullish impetus. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold is to close out the week on firm gains of 0.80%, even after Friday’s pullback, as softer US Retail Sales and a falling US Dollar enhance its safe-haven status. Investors are now factoring in several Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing Treasury yields to decline and further bolstering the long-term picture for gold. Central banks continued their aggressive gold buying, fueling the optimism. On the technical side, gold is supported at $2,942 with a possible breakout to $3,000, while critical supports are $2,850 and $2,790. Market players now wait for the FOMC minutes to see what else they might indicate regarding monetary policy direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical outlook for gold is still bullish, even as the metal pulls back recently, trading currently close to $2,883 following a two-day low of $2,878. The uptrend continues intact provided buyers protect crucial support points starting at $2,850, then $2,790 and $2,730. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of overbought levels, indicating a possible consolidation before the next move higher. If gold is able to break above the $2,900 level, the next important resistance is at the all-time high of $2,942, with an extension possible towards the psychological $3,000 level. Traders will watch price action and future economic releases closely for additional confirmation of trend direction. FORECAST Gold prices’ bullish run is still on as a number of underlying and technical drivers remain in favor of higher prices. If the purchasing interest can propel gold above the $2,900 mark, the next threshold to watch is the all-time high price of $2,942. A move above this may cause additional gains towards the psychological level of $3,000. With investors already factoring in several Federal Reserve rate reductions and central banks still making robust gold purchases, the longer-term picture is still positive. Moreover, persistent US Dollar weakness and lower Treasury yields add to the support, and gold is a good hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. While the overall trend is positive, gold is subject to potential downside risks from profit-taking and important support levels being tested. If the metal dips below $2,850, more declines would send it to the October 31 cycle high support at $2,790, and then to the next important level at $2,730. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of overbought levels, which means there could be a short-term correction. If US economic indicators surprise on the upside

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Commodities Gold

Gold price recovery: Steadying into risk-off sentiment and trade tariff concerns

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  • February 3, 2025
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The gold price bounced back from its early slide as investors seek safety in the precious metal amid global uncertainty. The price climbed close to the $2,800 mark. Fears over US President Trump’s new trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have continued to fuel concerns of inflation and a slowing economy, further supporting the appeal of gold as a hedge. However, a strengthening US Dollar, fueled by speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, will continue to cap the upside potential for gold. As traders wait for key US economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, gold’s next moves will depend on whether it can maintain its momentum past the $2,800 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • New tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could increase inflation, driving more investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. • The advance in the USD can put a top on gold upside, with continued strength in greenback through anticipation of further rate cuts from the Fed. • The next important resistance on gold prices would come at around $2,800. On breaking down, further fall will come into play, with a first significant support near $2,772. • US ISM Manufacturing PMI, coming this week, would be of extreme importance, since the numbers coming out from that might set direction for gold also. Gold prices are moving through a tough environment at the moment, as concerns over increasing inflation and the economic impact of US President Trump’s new trade tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico underpin them. The tariffs have increased the apprehension of the slowdown in the economy, thereby making gold a safe haven to invest in. However, the strengthening US Dollar, which is gaining on expectations of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may cap gold’s further upside. The traders are also keeping a close eye on key support levels around $2,772 and resistance near $2,800 as they await the release of important US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, to determine gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices are recovering, driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and rising inflation, which bolster its safe-haven appeal. However, a strong US Dollar and upcoming US economic data, particularly the ISM PMI, could limit further gains. Traders are watching key levels around $2,800 for signs of continued bullish momentum. • Gold has climbed back toward $2,800 after an intraday dip, supported by risk-off sentiment and concerns over economic fallout. • New tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico increase inflationary pressures, making gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation. • The USD continues to rise, supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which may cap the upside for gold. • Trade war fears and geopolitical tensions continue to fuel demand for gold, supporting its upward movement. • Gold is finding support around $2,772 and if broken below, this level will likely lead to another decline toward $2,755 and $2,720. • Gold faces an immediate resistance in the $2,790-$2,800 area, with a next major hurdle near the all-time high of $2,817. • Traders would be waiting for the US ISM Manufacturing PMI that will give an update on the economic health status and its impact on the direction of the gold price. Gold prices have recovered some lost ground lately, and are climbing back toward the $2,800 mark as market sentiment remains dominated by concerns over US President Trump’s new trade tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. The tariffs are feared to fuel inflation, which in turn fuels gold’s appeal as a hedge against potential economic fallout. The trade war concerns also curb the risk appetite of investors, pushing them to move towards the safe haven status offered by gold. However, while these factors remain in favor of gold, the strengthening US Dollar, which gained momentum due to speculations of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, would cap the precious metal’s rally. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Key technical levels remain under close attention, and a support level that has been quite pivotal is at $2,772. If this support breaks, then gold may witness additional falls toward $2,755 or $2,720. Resistance may come in around $2,790-$2,800. This all-time high of $2,817 presents a formidable obstacle. This week, crucial US economic indicators will be announced, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, with traders now awaiting more evidence regarding the near-term direction for the economy. It’s still a careful market, for any change in the macro can take gold both ways. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis on gold shows a few key points of support and resistance that are going to set the short-term price action of gold. Here, gold is testing the lower support level at $2,772, which has been the point of a lot of play in its price action. Breaking below this point could take the price further downwards to $2,755 or $2,720. On the upside, immediate resistance is $2,790-$2,800, and all-time high around $2,817 is a significant hurdle. Technical indicators such as moving averages and oscillators begin to suggest a continuation of the uptrend as long as gold can hold above its key support. Traders pay careful attention to these levels and wait for potential breaks or reversals. FORECAST Gold may continue its upward trend if geopolitical risks and trade tariff concerns continue to exist, as these will fuel demand for safe-haven assets. As the US Dollar remains strong, it may push gold into a resistance zone between $2,790 and $2,800, potentially leading to new highs if market uncertainty grows further. Moreover, any bad news about inflation or economic stability may further help gold to be a hedge again, and hence the uptrend stays alive. So if gold takes out the resistance level of $2,800 and sustains an upward course, the next stop may be the all-time high at around $2,817. On the flip side, if the US Dollar continues to rise as it expects that the Federal Reserve would delay its

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