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Commodities Gold

Gold Fails to Hold Above $3,500 on Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitics

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  • September 2, 2025
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Gold continued its streak of gains to a new record high of more than $3,500 on rising bets of a September rate cut by the Fed, ongoing safe-haven demand, and escalating geopolitical tensions. The metal, however, could not find firm acceptance above the important psychological level due to a limited U.S. Dollar recovery and overbought levels dampening upside momentum. Investors now shift their attention to future U.S. macroeconomic statistics, such as the ISM PMI, JOLTS, and Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls report, for new indications on the Fed policy trail and the next gold directional bias. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing market optimism on a September rate cut continues to drive solid buying demand for gold. • Gold finds it hard to gain acceptance above the $3,500 psychological level, with overbought indicators calling for caution. • Russia-Ukraine tensions, Middle East hostilities, and U.S. tariff wars are fueling safe-haven demand. • ISM PMI, JOLTS, ADP jobs report, and Nonfarm Payrolls are some economic indicators that might prescribe the next directional move in gold. Gold is still riding an extremely bullish wave, with expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and ongoing safe-haven flows in the face of global uncertainties. The precious metal briefly touched a record peak above $3,500 but struggled to sustain gains at this psychological level as a modest U.S. Dollar rebound and overbought technical conditions capped further upside. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff disputes remain in focus, keeping demand for gold intact. Investors now await key U.S. economic data releases this week for fresh direction, with particular attention on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Gold reached a new record of over $3,500, boosted by bets on Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand, but was unable to hold gains at the critical level. Future U.S. economic indicators, such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report, will probably decide its future direction. • Gold set a new all-time high at over $3,500 in the Asian session. • Increasing hopes of a September Fed rate cut continue to propel demand. • Safe-haven flows are robust in the face of geopolitical tensions and tariff wars. • The U.S. Dollar’s weak pullback put an end to gold’s upside momentum. • Overbought technical levels warn of caution ahead of further uplift. • Important U.S. economic data releases this week, including NFP, will dictate the next direction. • Support is near $3,440, and resistance is at the $3,500 psychological level. Gold continues to be in the limelight as investors increasingly factor in the possibility of a Federal Reserve cut in interest rates this September, keeping the non-yielding asset in demand. The safe-haven demand for gold has also been strengthened by increased geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and continued uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs. All these have combined to provide a bullish climate for bullion, with market players looking for stability in the face of economic and political instability. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the trend, fears over the Federal Reserve’s independence have joined the fray following recent political meddling and attacks on its leadership. This has further agitated investors, who have gone out looking for refuge in gold. Meanwhile, focus now turns to a string of high-impact U.S. economic data releases due to come out over the next week or so, which should give us more insight into the Fed’s policy direction. In the meantime, gold should continue to hold strong attraction as an investment hedge and as a gauge of generalized market uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent break above the $3,440 resistance level put an end to its multi-month consolidation and indicated very bullish strength. But the metal has not been able to maintain firmly above the $3,500 psychological handle, indicating that bulls are getting nervous at higher prices. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought, signaling the likely probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation before advancing the next leg higher. On the flip side, near-term support rests at $3,475–$3,474, with the $3,440 pivot zone in tow, which should see fresh buying interest if touched. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens again, gold may decisively break above the $3,500 psychological level and set the stage for additional gains. Ongoing safe-haven flows in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions, combined with increasing confidence in a September Fed rate cut, would offer robust tailwinds to buyers. A persistent break above this point may have gold tracing new record highs, as investors want shelter from uncertainty in global politics and monetary policy alike. Conversely, inability to find acceptance at prices above $3,500 might prompt some profit-taking and a corrective pullback. Short-term overbought levels, along with some modest U.S. Dollar improvement, might bear down on prices. Under such circumstances, gold could retest the $3,475–$3,474 level, while a further slide could find support near $3,440. A firm breach through this level could attract more selling pressure and drive the metal towards the $3,410–$3,400 area.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Retreats to $3,400 Ahead of US PCE Inflation Data as Dollar and Yields Strengthen

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  • August 29, 2025
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Gold is stabilizing around $3,407 after pulling back from the one-month high, with investors looking to the US core PCE inflation figures that will determine the Federal Reserve’s next step. A firming Dollar and stable Treasury yields are keeping prices under pressure, but safe-haven buying, tensions in geopolitics, and rate cut expectations are still favoring Gold’s overall bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Core PCE Price Index released today at 12:30 GMT will be the major determinant of Gold’s future direction. • A firmer US Dollar and solid Treasury yields are putting pressure on the precious metal. • Weaker PCE might fuel hopes for a September Fed rate cut, while stronger numbers might limit Gold’s upside. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership remain supporting safe-haven demand. Gold is consolidating slightly above the $3,400 level on Friday after pulling back from one-month high of $3,423, as traders become cautious before the release of the US core PCE Price Index. A firmer US Dollar and stronger Treasury yields are behind the pressure on the precious metal, as profit booking contributes to the retreat. The markets look for core PCE to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.9% on a yearly basis, and the result should influence anticipation for a September Fed rate reduction. Although corrected briefly, geopolitical tensions, issues regarding Fed autonomy, and the general safe-haven nature of Gold remain in favor of its bullish predisposition. Gold retreats towards $3,400 as investors look to the US core PCE inflation reading, which is a critical indicator of the Fed policy path. The stronger US Dollar and consistent Treasury yields dampen the metal, although its safe-haven status is still intact due to geopolitical and policy risks. • Gold falls to about $3,407 after Thursday’s one-month high of $3,423. • A stronger US Dollar and flat Treasury yields are weighing on the metal. • Expectations for a July US core PCE Price Index increase to 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. • A softer result can solidify hopes of a September Fed rate cut. • Improved inflation figures would support the Dollar and add further pressure to Gold. • Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns of Fed independence sustain safe-haven buying. • Technical levels of importance: support around $3,400 and $3,395; resistance at $3,423 and $3,450. Gold is trading close to $3,407 on Friday, falling slightly after hitting a high not seen since late July. The decline comes as market players go cautious in the wake of the release of US core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, which is likely to indicate a slight increase. A firmer US Dollar and strong Treasury yields are also contributing to the sentiment, while month-end profit-taking added to the decline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of the near-term consolidation, the overall outlook for Gold remains underpinned by enduring geopolitical tensions and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. Safe-haven buying has been supported by continued tensions in Ukraine and the legal battle over the Fed governor’s removal attempt. Added to the anticipation of policy easing in the second half of this year, these points continue to support Gold’s long-term bullish story across global markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is trading just above the $3,400 psychological floor following Thursday’s surge to $3,423, its best level since late July. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has relaxed from overbought levels to about 61, indicating abating momentum but still in the buyers’ favor. The next support is at $3,400, followed by the 21-period EMA at about $3,395 and the 100-period EMA at about $3,365. On the positive side, there is resistance at $3,423, with a steady break paving the way towards the $3,450 zone. Generally, the technical setup indicates dips can find fresh buying interest if major supports remain intact. FORECAST If the coming US core PCE inflation data is softer than anticipated, it might increase speculation for a September Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar and increasing Gold demand. In that case, a powerful break above $3,423 could set the stage for further advances to the $3,450 area, continuing to support the bullish momentum as safe-haven demand stays high. On the other hand, a better-than-anticipated PCE print will likely stem dovish Fed bets, boost the Dollar, and pressure Gold prices. Falling through the $3,400 support level may prompt a retreat back to $3,395 and possibly further to the $3,380–$3,370 region, where renewed buying interest might be seen.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Retains Gains Near $3,250 as Safe-Haven Demand Increases Due to Economic and Geopolitical Fears

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  • May 19, 2025
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Gold has recovered to sit near the higher end of the intraday range at $3,250, amid increased safe-haven demand due to rising economic and geopolitical concerns. The recent credit downgrade of the US government by Moody’s, in combination with fears of growing debt and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has increased investor demand for the non-yielding metal. In addition, hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and a weaker US Dollar are still supporting gold’s attractiveness despite hopes of a US-China trade truce and new trade agreements capping gains. Technical analysis suggests cautious optimism, with key resistance levels at $3,252 and $3,275 to watch before further gains can be confirmed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold’s ability to sustain gains above the $3,250-$3,252 resistance zone will be crucial to confirm a potential rebound and open the way toward the $3,300 mark. • Keeping a watch on US economic data and Federal Reserve statements is crucial, as dovish comments may continue to undermine the US Dollar and bolster gold prices. • The ever-present geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to be essential factors that may fuel safe-haven demand and shape gold’s direction. • A dip below the $3,200 support level may expose gold to more weakness towards $3,178 and even further to the $3,120-$3,100 area, probing lower support levels. Investors need to carefully monitor if gold is able to stay above the key $3,250–$3,252 resistance level, as a break above this level could set the stage for advances to the $3,300 level. Critical upcoming releases of US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches will also be crucial, as dovish indications can continue to weaken the US Dollar and underpin prices for gold. In the meantime, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to underpin safe-haven demand. On the other hand, a firm fall below the $3,200 support area may initiate additional selling pressure and drive gold to the $3,120–$3,100 levels to probe lower support levels. Gold’s next move depends on a break above the $3,250 resistance to reach $3,300, aided by safe-haven buying and a weaker US Dollar. Major US economic indicators and geopolitical tensions will also drive price action, while a fall below $3,200 may indicate deeper losses. • Gold price is hovering at the upper limit of its intraday range at $3,250 on the back of safe-haven demand. • Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concern about the fiscal health of the US, adding to the attractiveness of gold. • US Dollar is weighed down by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and is supporting gold prices. • Positivity toward a US-China trade truce and possible new trade agreements tops the gold’s upside. • Political tensions in the Middle East and persistent Russia-Ukraine conflict support safe-haven buying. • The key resistance zones to monitor are $3,250–$3,252 and $3,274–$3,275; a break above may take prices to $3,300. • Support zones are around $3,200 and $3,178–$3,177; a break below may see prices fall further to $3,120–$3,100. Gold prices have strengthened recently as investors seek safety amid mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The surprise downgrade of the US government’s credit rating by Moody’s has raised concerns about the nation’s fiscal health and growing debt, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2025 have weighed on the US Dollar, further enhancing gold’s appeal. Geopolitical tensions, especially persistent conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, still keep demand for the precious metal as a defensive asset on the rise. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of some optimism over a short-term US-China trade truce and expectations of more trade deals, these encouraging developments have yet to assuage investor worries to a great extent. Ongoing risks such as revived threats of tariffs from the US administration and patchy economic indicators of diminishing growth keep investors in a subdued mood. Consequently, gold continues to be a popular choice for investors who wish to hedge against economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now probing major resistance levels, implying subdued optimism among traders. The metal is testing resistance at its recent highs, which indicates that buyers are unwilling to drive prices much higher without greater momentum. Technical indicators and moving averages imply that gold might be consolidating and will wait for a definitive breakout to establish a sustained uptrend. On the other hand, any inability to penetrate these points of resistance may bring about temporary pullbacks, and thus it would be crucial that investors observe price action carefully before entering into new positions. FORECAST If gold can pierce the present resistance levels, it may be able to draw in fresh buying interest, sending prices higher. All this could be fueled by sustained geopolitical tensions, continuing US credit rating fears, and ongoing hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions. Under these circumstances, gold may be able to experience a sustained rally as investors turn to it for protection against economic uncertainty and weakness in currencies. On the negative side, supportive news such as advancements in US-China trade talks or indications of more vigorous economic growth may undermine the attraction of gold as a haven. Moreover, any surprise hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve or revival of the US Dollar could act as a dampener on the prices of gold. Failing to support key levels of support might induce additional selling pressure leading to a pullback as market players reconsider risk appetite and migrate to high-yielding assets.

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