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Gold Climbs Above $3,670 as Dip Buyers Take Advantage of Firm US Dollar and Strong Asian Demand

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  • September 20, 2025
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Gold rebound above $3,670 on Friday after briefly reaching weekly lows of $3,630, as dip buyers jumped in despite a strong US Dollar and an increase in US Treasury yields. The demand was underpinned by strong demand from China and India, which countered the plunge in Swiss exports to the US under tariff uncertainty. The last 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, which indicates a low-rate regime, also supported bullion, aiding XAU/USD’s bounce back following successive bearish days. Technical analysis indicates the bullish trend may persist, with possible tests of all-time highs around $3,703 if the momentum is sustained. KEY LOOKOUTS • Future Fed actions and economic statistics, such as Core PCE, Durable Goods, and GDP releases, may determine gold’s direction. • Robust demand from China and India continues to provide a strong underpinning for bullion, counterbalancing weakness in Western markets. • A sturdy US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields may pressure gold, so XAU/USD’s stability is even more noteworthy. • Important support at $3,650 and resistance around $3,703–$3,750 will dictate short-term price action. Gold remains resilient as it bounces back above $3,670 on the back of dip buyers and robust Asia demand, even with a solid US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields. The recent cut by the Fed in interest rates has made the low-rate environment friendly, prompting investors to shift back to the non-yielding metal. Even though Swiss exports to the US collapsed strongly on the back of tariff uncertainty, sharply higher shipments to China and India have supported bullion’s upside. Technical charts indicate the rally could persist, with $3,703 and $3,750 serving as pivotal resistance levels to monitor. Gold recovers over $3,670 as decline buyers return, with healthy demand from China and India. With a firm US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields, the uptrend in bullion holds. Pivotal resistance levels to monitor are $3,703 and $3,750. • Gold rebounded off weekly lows at around $3,630 and trades above $3,670. • Dip buyers intervened in the face of a strong US Dollar and increasing US Treasury yields. • China and India’s robust demand helped underpin bullion over faltering Swiss exports to the US. • The recent 25-basis-point Fed rate cut set a positive low-rate backdrop for gold. • XAU/USD reversed following back-to-back bearish sessions, up more than 0.69%. • Technical indicators indicate possible resistance at $3,703, $3,750, and $3,800. • The key support levels are $3,650, $3,613, and $3,600 in case the uptrend weakens. Gold is gaining momentum as buyers step in to purchase after declines, underpinned by renewed demand from significant Asian markets. Imports from China and India have risen sharply, counteracting the disruption of Swiss exports to the US due to tariff uncertainty. The appeal of the metal is also enhanced by the recent Fed rate cut, which has established a conducive environment of low interest rates that usually favors non-yielding assets such as gold. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with global economic factors still driving bullion demand. As the US Dollar and Treasury yields remain robust, solid consumer and industrial demand from Asia has been supportive of gold prices. Market players are keeping a close eye on upcoming economic data and central bank moves, which are set to drive market trends in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has moved back into its uptrend after rebounding above $3,670, with momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registering fresh bullish momentum after recovering from overbought territory. The key resistance levels to monitor are $3,703, $3,750, and $3,800, which may serve as potential targets in case the buying pressure is maintained. On the other hand, support is expected around $3,650, with additional cushioning near $3,613 and $3,600, giving traders clear levels for entry and exit points. FORECAST Gold will continue to go higher in the near term on the back of firm Asian buying and the supportive low-rate environment fostered by the recent Fed rate cut. If buying continues, XAU/USD may touch key resistance at $3,703 and even $3,750, with a possible revisit to $3,800 on sustained momentum. But a turn around cannot be avoided if the US Dollar gets stronger or Treasury yields shoot up sharply. Then gold will be under selling pressure, with initial support at $3,650 and further down targets at $3,613 and $3,600, which can be used as crucial levels for dip buyers to again get in.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Hits Record $3,600 as Soft US Jobs Data Spurs Fed Rate Cut Hopes

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  • September 6, 2025
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Gold soared to an all-time high of $3,600 on Friday after disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data fueled speculations of Federal Reserve rate reductions. The report released 22,000 jobs in August, short of expectations, and sent the unemployment rate to 4.3%, while wage growth stagnated. As a response, US Treasury yields fell, the US Dollar lost value, and investors rushed towards the safety of Gold. Concerns from the market regarding Fed independence, combined with speculation of a possible 50-basis-point reduction by analysts, helped sustain bullion’s rally before next week’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). KEY LOOKOUTS • Next week’s CPI data will be closely monitored by investors to determine inflation patterns and likely Fed rate cuts. • Expectations of a 25–50 bps rate reduction will shape Gold’s short-term course. • Dropping yields and a weak Dollar continue to propel Gold’s bullish trend. • Gold is at major resistance of $3,650 and $3,700, while a fall below $3,600 would potentially pave the way to $3,511 and $3,500. Gold reached an all-time high at $3,600 as weak US labor market statistics kindled hopes of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report was disappointing with a mere 22,000 jobs being added, nudging unemployment upwards while leaving wage growth unchanged. Declining Treasury yields and a weakening US Dollar added to the bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Market fear of Fed independence, as well as hopes of a potential 50-basis-point reduction, has supported Gold’s positive bias before next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Gold broke the all-time high at $3,600 following dismal US jobs numbers that increased prospects of Fed interest rate reductions. Declining Treasury yields and weaker Dollar powered the rally, with markets now looking towards next week’s CPI release for direction. • Gold touched an all-time high of $3,600 after soft US Nonfarm Payrolls data. • August jobs report reported adding just 22,000 jobs, below estimates of 75,000. • US unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, while wage growth stabilized at 0.3% MoM. • US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year note, plummeted hard, increasing Gold’s attractiveness. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.70% due to risk-off flows. • Potential Fed rate cuts of 50 bps or so are anticipated by analysts, such as Standard Chartered. • Gold near-term technical resistance is at $3,650 and $3,700, with near-term support at $3,511–$3,500. Gold jumped to a record $3,600 as softer-than-forecast US labor market data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated just 22,000 jobs added, below forecasts, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% and wage growth was steady. Disappointing jobs numbers raised concerns about the health of the US economy, and investors turned to the safety of Gold. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Market sentiment was also impacted by declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar, both of which benefited bullion’s attractiveness. Analysts such as those at Standard Chartered emphasized prospects for material Fed easing over the next few months, enhancing expectations for rate cuts before next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Political uncertainty with regard to the Fed’s independence contributed further to the bearish outlook for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s technical bias is strongly bullish following a break above the $3,600 level, indicating a strong uptrend. The immediate levels to watch for resistance are $3,650 and $3,700, where profit-taking might occur. On the bearish side, a close below $3,600 on the daily chart might open up support at $3,511, and then come the psychological $3,500 level. On a general basis, the trend indicates that the bulls are dominant, and additional gains are expected if Gold manages to hold above support levels. FORECAST Gold is expected to remain on a rising course in the short term if market sentiment is supportive. On expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and a softer US Dollar, prices have the potential to test resistance levels around $3,650 and even $3,700. The positive momentum can continue as investors look to safe-haven assets in anticipation of key US economic data. But negative risks persist if Gold cannot stay above $3,600. A sustained decline below this may push prices into correction to $3,511, then $3,500, as investors may take profits or respond to better-than-forecast US economic statistics. Reactions of markets to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement will be pivotal to deciding the next way forward.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Consolidates Below Record Highs as Traders Wait for Key US Labor Market Data

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  • September 4, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating below its all-time high of $3,578.50 as traders take profits and the US Dollar remains firm, tempering recent bullish momentum. Despite the respite, safe-haven demand is supported by softening US Treasury yields, tranquil global bond markets, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. With investor attention now on the ADP Employment report and upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls, labor market data will be crucial in determining near-term direction for Gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • ADP Employment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be instrumental in deciding Gold’s next move. • Markets price in high probability of a September rate cut, supporting safe-haven demand. • A firm Dollar and softening bond yields continue to shape Gold’s short-term path. • Calmer conditions in Japan and the UK lower safe-haven rush but support amid persistent fiscal risks. Gold prices are taking a breather below record highs as investors weigh profit-taking against persistent safe-haven demand. While the US Dollar’s firmness is weighing on sentiment, softer Treasury yields and tranquil global bond markets are helping to cushion the downside. With the Federal Reserve widely anticipated to cut rates in September, attention now shifts to US labor market data, including the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which are poised to guide Gold’s near-term direction. Gold is consolidating below its record high as traders wait for key US labor market data. Softening Treasury yields and Fed rate cut expectations support safe-haven demand, while the US Dollar’s firmness caps upside momentum. • Gold reached a record high of $3,578.50 before consolidating around $3,540. • Profit-taking and a firm US Dollar are weighing on sentiment. • Softening US Treasury yields are helping to cap downside pressure. • Tranquil global bond markets lower safe-haven rush but still support Gold. • Markets are pricing in a September Fed rate cut, supporting bullish bias. • Investor attention shifts to ADP Employment data and Nonfarm Payrolls for labor market cues. • Key support is at $3,500–3,450, while resistance remains at the record high of $3,578. Gold is taking a breather after a record-breaking run that pushed prices to new record highs, with investors looking to the next US labor market data for direction. The yellow metal remains supported by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, as cheaper borrowing makes it more attractive as a safe-haven asset. Softer global bond markets and declining US Treasury yields have also supported sentiment, keeping bullion demand well supported despite light profit-taking. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView The overall environment for Gold remains supportive as economic uncertainty, global trade tensions, and fiscal credibility concerns in major economies continue to underpin its status as a risk hedge. With markets already fully pricing in policy easing from the Fed, investors are now looking to the ADP Employment report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which are expected to dictate the direction of Gold’s next move. Meanwhile, the safe-haven theme continues to underpin the precious metal. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its record high of $3,578.50, with momentum indicators pointing to a potential cooling phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels above 70 but is trending lower, indicating room for a pause or pullback. Prices are also testing the upper Bollinger Band at $3,543, indicating stretched bullish momentum and the potential for a retreat to the 20-day moving average at $3,398 if profit-taking intensifies. Immediate support is at $3,511 and $3,500, while resistance is at the $3,578 peak, with a breakout opening the way to the $3,600 level. FORECAST If US labor market data is softer than anticipated, Gold may regain strong bullish momentum as hopes for a September Fed rate cut intensify. A sustained break above the record high of $3,578 would open the way for a move to the psychological $3,600 level, with further potential for upside if safe-haven demand picks up pace amid continued global economic and fiscal uncertainties. Conversely, more robust US jobs data or a more resilient US Dollar may provoke more aggressive profit-taking, sending Gold lower in the near term. Critical support levels are at $3,511 and the $3,500 psychological level, with a further drop potentially reaching the $3,450 area. A breakdown below these levels could indicate a more extensive correction, although the long-term bullish bias is still in place.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Slips as Hawkish Fed, Robust USD, and Russia-Ukraine Peace Hopes Dampen XAU/USD

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  • August 21, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) slid on Thursday after a hawkish FOMC minutes tone bolstered the US Dollar, while peace hopes for Russia and Ukraine further bruised safe-haven demand. The officials’ concerns over inflation and diminished chances of sharp rate cuts in September kept the USD firm. Geopolitical events, such as comments by Russian and US officials, in addition to market expectations surrounding near-term global PMIs and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address, will likely drive the short-term trend of the yellow metal. On a technical basis, Gold has support at $3,312 and resistance at $3,352, so a conservative trading range is in the offing. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will look to the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory and policy direction, which may influence short-term Gold action. • Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index reports might shape risk sentiment and influence safe-haven Gold demand. • Hawkish FOMC minutes are making the USD stronger, which usually puts pressure on non-yielding Gold. • Developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and statements from world leaders might influence Gold’s safe-haven appeal. Gold remained under pressure on Thursday, weighed down by a strong US Dollar after hawkish FOMC minutes and optimism on the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war. The minutes emphasized inflation fears, downscaling expectations for aggressive rate cuts in September and lending support to the Greenback. Traders are now looking forward to soon-to-be-released flash global PMIs and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for further guidance. Technically, Gold sees near-term support at $3,312 and resistance at $3,352, suggesting cautious trading range as investors consider economic and geopolitical signals. USD/CHF inches up to 0.8050 with the US Dollar finding refuge in the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation. Investors keep an eye on Powell’s Jackson Hole address, Swiss Trade Balance data, and US PMIs for fresh direction in markets. • Gold drifts lower on a stronger US Dollar propped up by dovish FOMC minutes. •  July FOMC meeting minutes emphasized inflation pressures and decreased the risk of aggressive September rate cuts. •  Hopes for a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement are curbing demand for the safe-haven metal. •  Market participants are waiting closely for upcoming flash global PMIs that will reflect the health of the economy and sentiment towards risk. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium continues to be a key market driver. • Technical support for Gold is around $3,312, whereas resistance is around $3,352 and $3,375. • A break below $3,300 would trigger additional technical selling, whereas strength above $3,352 might produce a short-covering rally towards $3,400. Gold came under fresh pressure on Thursday as the combination of a stronger US Dollar and geopolitical optimism depressed the safe-haven metal. The hawkish tone in the July FOMC minutes, highlighting fears of inflation, cooled the expectations for forceful interest rate cuts in September. Meanwhile, optimism over a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict also lowered demand for Gold, which usually gains from geopolitical tensions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are currently looking ahead to forthcoming economic indicators, such as flash global PMIs, and also to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors will be searching for indications on the direction of central bank policy and overall economic environment, which could shape risk sentiment and commodity flows. In the meantime, political events, like US President Trump’s verbal attacks on Fed officials, contribute to an additional layer of uncertainty in the market climate. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at near major support and resistance levels, thus reflecting a conservative market attitude. Short-term support is seen in the vicinity of the $3,312 area, which previously served as a pivot point and assisted in capping downside endeavors. On the positive side, resistance at $3,352–$3,375 represents near-term obstacles that may precipitate a bounce if broken. A continued breakdown below support might pave the way to $3,300 and the lower edge of the range around $3,270–$3,265, while a firm breakout above resistance might lay the ground for additional upside momentum to $3,400 and higher. FORECAST If Gold can hold on to the buying momentum over the near resistance of $3,352, short-covering and fresh buying interest may propel prices towards $3,375 and even breach the $3,400 level. A break above these levels might set up the stage for extended advances to the top edge of the multi-month trading range around $3,434–$3,435, which will be a very bullish phase in XAU/USD. On the negative, a move below the crucial support of $3,312 may provoke technical selling, driving Gold to $3,300. If this resistance level is not maintained, the following key support is close to $3,270–$3,265, which is the lower end of the three-month range. A breakdown there can signal further near-term weakness, adding more pressure to the yellow metal.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Below $3,400 as Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Trade Nerves are Offset by Profit-Taking

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  • August 8, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) stayed under the $3,400 level on Friday, cutting intraday losses thanks to profit-taking and a small US Dollar rebound. An overall risk-on tone in international markets constrained safe-haven seeking, but trade tensions, sparked by US President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariff policies, and robust expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut softened the downside. Further support was provided by China’s ongoing gold buying for a ninth consecutive month, as weak US labor market indicators supported dovish Fed sentiment. Technical levels are overall bullish biased, albeit short-term gains are resisted, while investors wait for new signals from future FOMC speeches. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are pricing more than a 90% chance of a September rate cut, with at least two cuts by end-year, underpinning gold price. •  Trump’s new tariffs on Indian imports and scheduled levies on semiconductors and pharma keep safe-haven demand in the limelight. •  Upside capped at $3,422–$3,435, with robust support at $3,350 and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. •  Ongoing accumulation by China’s central bank for the ninth straight month provides a fundamental tailwind for bullion. Gold prices remained below the $3,400 level on Friday as profit-taking and a modest US Dollar recovery dented the metal, even as trade tensions and dovish Federal Reserve expectations provided support. Market sentiment favored the day on the back of Asian equity gains, damping safe-haven demand, but Trump’s new tariff moves and China’s nine months of consecutive buying of gold capped the downside. Weak US labor market data further supported expectations for a September rate cut, maintaining the overall outlook as cautiously bullish while technical resistance levels remain to cap near-term gains. Gold prices remained below $3,400 on Friday as profit-taking negated the positive impacts of trade tensions and expectations for Fed rate cuts. China’s ongoing gold purchases and soft US labor data supported, though robust technical resistance curbed further advances. •  Gold price (XAU/USD) still below $3,400 due to profit-taking and a modest recovery in the US Dollar. •  Risk-on mood from rallying Asian equities diminishes safe-haven demand. •  Trump’s new Indian import tariffs and forthcoming levies on other products maintain trade tensions. •  China’s central bank is buying gold for the ninth consecutive month in July. •  Soft US labor market data supports hopes of a September Fed rate cut. •  Technical resistance at $3,422–$3,435 and robust support at $3,350. •  General bullish tilt remains in place, but investors look for new direction from future FOMC orations. Gold prices remained firm below the $3,400 mark on Friday as markets weighed profit-taking against continued support from international economic and geopolitical realities. Risk-on sentiment in equities, especially in Asia, relaxed some safe-haven demand, while a slight US Dollar rebound placed mild pressure. But increased trade tensions—fueled by US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff action against Indian imports and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals—kept investors on guard. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continued its gold shopping binge for the ninth straight month in July, adding to demand for the metal from a strategic reserve viewpoint. XAUUSD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the macro level, soft US labor market data put more credibility to bets that the Federal Reserve will restart its rate-cutting cycle this September as markets are pricing in a high probability of several cuts by the end of the year. The US Jobless Claims report indicated an increase in unemployment applications, indicating a slowing jobs market and building the case for easier monetary policy. At the same time, political events surrounding the leadership of the Fed—like the President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran and possible successors to Chair Jerome Powell—provided an added layer of uncertainty for investors. These factors combined still dictate gold’s position as both a hedge against economic uncertainty and an overarching strategic asset for central banks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent climb through the $3,383–$3,385 zone of supply, combined with upbeat daily chart oscillators, is bearish for now, but short-term upside momentum is held back at around $3,422–$3,423 and the $3,434–$3,435 area. A convincing break above here may send the door ajar toward the $3,500 psychological level last visited in April. On the negative side, the $3,353–$3,350 region—coinciding with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—is still a critical support level, with a break below opening up $3,315 and $3,300 before revisiting the one-month low of $3,268. FORECAST If gold can hold on to its buying momentum beyond the $3,385 support area, the metal may revisit the $3,422–$3,423 resistance zone, with added strength leading towards $3,434–$3,435. A break above this area would most likely prompt bullish investors to head for the $3,500 psychological level, spurred possibly by ongoing Fed rate cut hopes, trade tensions, and central bank buying. Conversely, a breakdown below the $3,353–$3,350 support—underpinned by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—may change sentiment in favour of sellers, highlighting $3,315 as the next bearish target. Subsequent weakness below this level may drive prices towards the $3,300 round number and eventually the one-month low at $3,268, if risk appetite firms up and the US Dollar mounts a stronger recovery.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Firm as Safe-Haven Demand Grows with Trade Tensions and Dollar Pullback

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  • July 16, 2025
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Gold price stays firm at the $3,340 level as fresh safe-haven demand is building up on increasing trade tensions and a declining risk tone in the global markets. Downbeat equity sentiment fueled by fears over US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy and ongoing inflationary pressures is fostering the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal. At the same time, a small retracement in the US Dollar from recent highs is also supportive, although anticipation of sustained higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve might temper meaningful upside. While markets wait for decisive US Producer Price Index data as well as additional comments from the Fed, gold traders are cautiously optimistic. KEY LOOKOUTS • US Producer Price Index data, when released, will likely shape inflation expectations and Fed rate projections, having a direct bearing on gold prices. • Comments from FOMC members, particularly regarding the timing of rate cuts as well as inflation risks, will be closely monitored for any monetary policy guidance. • Persistent trade tensions, such as Trump’s threatened pharmaceutical and copper tariffs, sustain safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold is confronted with instant resistance at $3,342–$3,343 and has to break above this level to challenge higher levels of $3,365 and even the $3,400 level. Gold price remains steady around the $3,340 level as safe-haven interest comes back to the metal with increasing global uncertainties and a modest pullback in the US Dollar. Market mood remains risk-averse due to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff declarations, which have caused concerns for possible inflation hikes and economic repercussions. In the meantime, hopes for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a more extended period of time remain a headwind for the precious metal. With the next US Producer Price Index figures and additional Fed statements looming in the background, investors are exercising caution, balancing geopolitical threats against monetary policy cues. Gold price stabilizes at $3,340 as safe-haven demand is resurgent due to trade tensions and a less positive risk tone. A declining US Dollar provides support, but Fed rate hike prospects could contain further gains. Traders now look for US PPI data and Fed commentary for new direction. • Gold price stabilizes at $3,340, underpinned by safe-haven buying in the face of global risk aversion. • Trade tensions rise as Trump promises new tariffs, fueling inflation and economic hardship concerns. • US Dollar pulls back from multi-week highs, providing modest aid to gold. • Fed likely to hold rates higher for longer, capping meaningful upside for non-yielding metal. • US CPI increased 0.3% in June, spurring concerns over surging inflation from trade policies. • Focus shifts to US PPI and future Fed speeches for leads on monetary policy direction. • Technical resistance at $3,342–$3,343, stronger resistance around $3,365 and $3,400. Gold maintains investor attraction as a safe-haven asset in a heightened global economic uncertainty environment. Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump about imposing sharp tariffs on drug and copper imports fueled renewed fears of inflation triggered by trade and dampened economic growth. The concerns have prompted a wary market sentiment, with stocks under pressure and demand increasing for historically safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors grow nncreasingly worried about the long-term effects these trade policies might have, particularly when inflationary pressures begin to build up. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve continues to hold firm on keeping higher interest rates in place to bring inflation under control. Comments from Fed officials such as Susan Collins and Lorie Logan indicate that excessive easing could damage the economy’s momentum for the near future. The combination of ongoing inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy expectations, and international trade tensions has provided a backdrop under which gold is a strategic hedge. As investors track closely the release of economic data and central bank speeches, gold continues to be an important gauge of market sentiment and risk aversion. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price is displaying resilience just below $3,340, trading around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Although the metal has halted its pullback from a three-week peak, momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD remain even-keel, providing no clear indication of a reversal being bullish. A persistent move over the near-term resistance at $3,342–$3,343 can bring out the way to the $3,365–$3,366 region, with additional buying forcing the price nearer to the psychological $3,400 level. On the flip side, any dip below $3,320 may initiate new selling pressure, opening up support at $3,300 and $3,282. FORECAST Should gold be able to maintain the pressure over the $3,342–$3,343 resistance level, it could set the stage for a retest of the $3,365–$3,366 barrier in the near future. A firm break over this point would tend to draw further bullish attention, driving prices toward the psychologically significant $3,400 figure. Ongoing safe-haven buying interest, a correction in the US Dollar, or dovish statements from Federal Reserve representatives could further encourage this rallying action. Conversely, a failure to remain above the $3,320 support may spark a more pronounced corrective fall. In that case, gold could slide towards the critical $3,300 support region, and a breakdown below this level may expose the $3,283–$3,282 level, which was a recent one-week low. A firmer US Dollar, hawkish Fed, or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could sour the mood and hasten the downside journey to the July swing low near the $3,248–$3,247 range.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Poised for First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks on US Fiscal Jitters and Trade Uncertainty

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  • July 4, 2025
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Gold price is set to record its first weekly gain in three weeks, boosted by US fiscal jitters and revived trade uncertainty. Despite a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report that reduced hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, the US Dollar struggled to sustain gains amid rising fears over the country’s long-term debt trajectory following President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. Additionally, upcoming tariff changes and holiday-thinned trading conditions are keeping market participants cautious, yet the underlying safe-haven demand continues to support the precious metal, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising fears over long-term debt due to President Trump’s tax and spending bill are weighing on the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven demand for Gold. • A more-than-anticipated NFP reading has dulled near-term rate cut expectations, but softer wage growth leaves the door open for policy relaxation in the latter part of the year. • Gold price is battling a critical resistance level around the $3,352–$3,355 levels; a convincing break above may spark additional gains towards $3,400. • With US markets being shut on Independence Day, low trading volumes can induce volatility and risk aversion among XAU/USD traders. Gold price stays strong as it targets its first weekly advance in three weeks, supported by rising US fiscal tensions and ongoing trade-related volatilities. While the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls report briefly boosted the US Dollar and cooled speculation of an imminent Fed rate cut, the signing into law of President Trump’s tax-reduction and spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion to national debt, has lifted longer-term economic worries, topping USD gains. Combined with imminent tariff realignments and holiday-thinned market liquidity, these demand drivers still provide support to Gold safe-haven demand and maintain its near-term outlook biased to the upside. Gold price remains robust, underpinned by US fiscal worries and trade uncertainty even in the face of more-than-expected jobs data. Holiday-thinned market liquidity and the proximity of resistance to the 100-SMA may suppress the upside but overall remain bullish. • Gold is set to end a two-week losing streak, which will reflect renewed bullish momentum. • Fears surrounding President Trump’s spending bill and its $3.4 trillion debt burden are putting pressure on the US Dollar. • Stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data cut short-term Fed rate cut speculation but failed to fully bolster the Dollar. • Lower wage growth tempered inflation concerns, keeping hopes high for easing Fed policy in the future. • Gold finds it difficult to move past the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart at $3,352–$3,355, a pivotal zone. • US Independence Day has trimmed market liquidity, and traders are being cautious. • Continued trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to fuel demand for Gold. Gold is poised to break its two-week losing spree, underpinned by a favorable fundamental environment fueled by increasing fiscal worries in the United States and continued worldwide trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s huge tax-cut and spending bill’s approval has sent alarm bells ringing about the nation’s long-term debt horizon, shattering the US Dollar and causing an uptick in demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. Also, uncertainty over planned tariff increases has further boosted investor appetite for Gold, with markets getting ready for prospective trade disruptions before the July 9 deadline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figure temporarily supported the US Dollar earlier by suppressing short-term Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Slower wage gains in the same release, though, smoothed out inflation worries, and left the window open for potential later-year monetary easing. With US markets shut on Independence Day, trading has been subdued but the underlying drivers still support a bullish sentiment in Gold as investors flock towards it for safety against increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is finding it difficult to clear the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which is behaving as a good resistance around the $3,352–$3,355 level. A breakdown past this level may set the stage for an extended rally to the $3,366 area and, possibly, the $3,400 psychological level. To the downside, near-term support comes in around the $3,326–$3,325 area, followed by more robust support at $3,311 and $3,300. A collapse below these levels may turn the tide in the bears’ direction, threatening to expose the $3,270 support zone and even the monthly low of $3,248 if the pressure from the bears mounts. FORECAST If Gold price is able to break and hold above the 100-period SMA in the vicinity of $3,355, it may create fresh bullish momentum. This will most probably pave the way for a move towards the next resistance at $3,366, followed by the psychological hurdle of $3,400. A long-term rally above these levels with a weak US Dollar and safe-haven demand could further push the price towards $3,420 in the short term. Conversely, a failure to breach the 100-SMA resistance can draw Gold back towards the immediate support level at $3,325. Breaking through this area can invite additional selling pressure, taking Gold down to $3,311 and further to the key $3,300 level. If selling momentum gathers pace, the fall can go as far as the $3,270 level, with a possible retest of the monthly low around $3,248.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

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  • June 27, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Back from Two-Month Highs Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty over Fed Policy

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  • June 16, 2025
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Gold prices fell back slightly after hitting almost a two-month high during the Asian session, as a upbeat risk appetite in equity markets took its toll on the safe-haven commodity. In spite of the decline, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran, still provide support for gold. Also, market participants are holding back in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to give new guidance on interest-rate reductions with evidence of easing U.S. inflation. As a moderate gain in the U.S. dollar places a limit on further advancement, overall gold’s downside is circumscribed, technicals indicating that any slide will offer new buying opportunities. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate prognosis, and this may have a strong impact on the U.S. dollar as well as gold prices. • The Israeli-Iran conflict persists in offering safe-haven support to gold amidst general market uncertainty. • Any major movement in the USD, particularly around its recent lows, could have a direct bearing on direction of gold prices. • Major resistance is at the $3,452-$3,500 level, and support around $3,400 and $3,360 levels of the uptrend channel. Gold prices have softened slightly after hitting a two-month high, weighed down by the positive sentiment in Asian equities. Nevertheless, the metal still finds support in heightening Middle Eastern tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors are also eyeing closely the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may give new signals about future interest rate cuts as there were signs of slowing U.S. inflation. Although the U.S. dollar’s modest recovery has limited some of gold’s advances, the downside is still constrained as traders remain jittery in anticipation of major economic and geopolitical events. Gold prices drop back from two-month high as Asian stocks climb, but safe-haven buying continues amidst tensions in the Middle East. FOMC meeting awaited for direction on prospective U.S. interest rate cuts, capping the downside for gold. • Gold prices decline slightly after reaching a two-month high in Asian trading. • Encouraging risk appetite in the equity markets suppresses the safe-haven demand for gold. • Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to underpin gold prices. • Traders tread carefully in anticipation of next week’s FOMC policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to leave the rates unchanged but is likely to indicate future cuts as inflation weakens. • The U.S. dollar gets a modest boost, capping gold’s near-term upside. • Key levels are resistance at $3,452-$3,500 and support at $3,400-$3,360. Gold prices are seeing mild pressure after they hit their highest level in almost two months. The positive mood in the Asian equity markets has somewhat reduced the allure of the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel remains a driving force for investor demand for safer assets. The military skirmishes between the two countries have intensified, with both sides firing at each other, contributing to global market anxiety and sustaining gold in general support. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, attention is turning to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold but investors are seeking clues over potential future cuts after inflation slowed and the economy was shown to have pockets of weakness. The Fed’s guidance will be influential in setting up expectations for the rest of the year, and any dovish sentiments can further impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the $3,400 threshold recently, indicating bullish vigor underpinned by the development of a rising trend channel on short-term charts. Bulls are still in control according to positive oscillators on the daily chart, and resistance is found at the $3,452-$3,453 levels. A distinct breakout above this level could potentially lead to a retest of the all-time high around the $3,500 psychological level. On the other hand, any pullback would likely find firm support around $3,400, and a sustained fall below $3,360 would invalidate the bullish setup, and it could switch the near-term bias towards sellers. FORECAST Should gold be able to break over the recent high in the $3,452-$3,453 region, it would potentially set the stage for a challenge of the psychological $3,500 mark. A convincing move above this obstacle might invite new buying interest and drive prices still higher, potentially continuing the current bullish trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions or a dovish Federal Reserve comment could serve as catalysts for sustained upside momentum. On the negative side, nearest support is seen at the $3,400 level, and subsequent weakness could push gold down towards the $3,360 zone, which is the lower end of the current uptrend channel. A move below this level with some conviction would change market sentiment and attract more selling pressure, potentially creating a more severe correction in the near term.

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Gold

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Falters Below $3,345 as Markets Wait for US CPI Report

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  • June 11, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is moderately higher, holding on to a slightly weaker US Dollar as investors go cautious in anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Although it posted gains, the commodity is encountering strong resistance around the $3,345 area, after a recent retreat from the previous week’s $3,400 top. Market sentiment is still weak following doubt about the sustainability of the US-China trade deal, with potential for further volatility if inflation data next week exceeds expectations. Technically, gold still seems to be in a corrective A-B-C sequence with the ability to test higher levels before continuing its southward trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is keenly observing the next US Consumer Price Index reading, which has the potential to shape inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. • Concern about the longevity of the US-China “framework” accord remains over market sentiment and go-safe-haven demand • Gold is experiencing stiff resistance around the $3,345 level, with further upside limited unless there is a breakthrough. • The ongoing A-B-C corrective phase points toward eventual short-term gains to $3,375 before bearish momentum resumes. Gold prices are trading with a modest positive bias as the US Dollar tapers globally, fueled by investor wariness prior to the highly anticipated US CPI report. XAU/USD, still under pressure below $3,345 resistance, continues to fail to revisit last week’s highs of around $3,400. The subdued market reaction to the US-China trade agreement, owing to its vagueness, contributes to the uncertainty. With inflation numbers set to bring in new signals, traders are being cautious, holding gold in a tight range of consolidation. Gold maintains modest gains as the US Dollar falters in anticipation of significant US CPI numbers. Resistance at $3,345 is holding back further gains, as doubts about the US-China trade agreement have investors in wait-and-see mode. Markets look to inflation numbers for the next move. • Gold (XAU/USD) makes modest gains in the face of widespread US Dollar weakness. • Resistance at $3,345 still caps further up-limits. • Investors are hesitant in anticipation of the release of US CPI. • Doubts surrounding US-China trade deal augment gold’s safe-haven buying. • Technicals indicate an ongoing A-B-C corrective pattern. • Potential short-term price higher towards $3,375 before possible further downswing. • Critical support is at $3,290 and then $3,245. Gold is supported since market players take a defensive approach prior to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The inflation reading is likely to give vital clues regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve going forward. With the uncertainty of price pressure and potential interest rate hikes, investors are shunning big positions, especially in the US Dollar, to provide indirect support to gold. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the newly signed US-China trade deal, presented as a “framework” to ease tensions, has not been able to generate robust market optimism. Insufficient tangible specifics and doubts over the long-term sustainability of the deal have kept the market mood cautious. This prevailing uncertainty continues to drive demand for safe-haven instruments such as gold, with investors seeking cover against possible global economic turbulence. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is in a corrective phase after its pullback from the recent high at around $3,400. Price is forming a narrow range, with resistance at $3,345 capping upside attempts. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is drifting around the neutral 50 level, reflecting indecision among traders. Elliott Wave shows a current A-B-C correction, with potential extension up to the $3,375 zone before any fresh selling momentum. Key support levels at $3,290 and $3,245 could attract buyers if approached. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens, gold may break above current resistance at $3,345. A breakout would potentially clear the way to the $3,375 area, which sits along the reverse trendline and may encourage additional buying interest. Further US Dollar weakness and a softer-than-anticipated US CPI print may serve as the catalyst needed for gold to retest higher prices and move toward last week’s high near $3,400. On the negative side, inability to breach the $3,345 resistance level can result in fresh selling pressure. A drop below near-term support at $3,290 can leave gold vulnerable to further losses, with the subsequent support area at $3,245, seen by past highs and lows. A higher-than-expected US CPI figure or favorable risk sentiment due to geopolitical events can push gold down as appetite for safe-haven assets fades.

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