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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Firm as Safe-Haven Demand Grows with Trade Tensions and Dollar Pullback

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  • July 16, 2025
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Gold price stays firm at the $3,340 level as fresh safe-haven demand is building up on increasing trade tensions and a declining risk tone in the global markets. Downbeat equity sentiment fueled by fears over US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy and ongoing inflationary pressures is fostering the attractiveness of the non-yielding yellow metal. At the same time, a small retracement in the US Dollar from recent highs is also supportive, although anticipation of sustained higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve might temper meaningful upside. While markets wait for decisive US Producer Price Index data as well as additional comments from the Fed, gold traders are cautiously optimistic. KEY LOOKOUTS • US Producer Price Index data, when released, will likely shape inflation expectations and Fed rate projections, having a direct bearing on gold prices. • Comments from FOMC members, particularly regarding the timing of rate cuts as well as inflation risks, will be closely monitored for any monetary policy guidance. • Persistent trade tensions, such as Trump’s threatened pharmaceutical and copper tariffs, sustain safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold is confronted with instant resistance at $3,342–$3,343 and has to break above this level to challenge higher levels of $3,365 and even the $3,400 level. Gold price remains steady around the $3,340 level as safe-haven interest comes back to the metal with increasing global uncertainties and a modest pullback in the US Dollar. Market mood remains risk-averse due to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff declarations, which have caused concerns for possible inflation hikes and economic repercussions. In the meantime, hopes for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a more extended period of time remain a headwind for the precious metal. With the next US Producer Price Index figures and additional Fed statements looming in the background, investors are exercising caution, balancing geopolitical threats against monetary policy cues. Gold price stabilizes at $3,340 as safe-haven demand is resurgent due to trade tensions and a less positive risk tone. A declining US Dollar provides support, but Fed rate hike prospects could contain further gains. Traders now look for US PPI data and Fed commentary for new direction. • Gold price stabilizes at $3,340, underpinned by safe-haven buying in the face of global risk aversion. • Trade tensions rise as Trump promises new tariffs, fueling inflation and economic hardship concerns. • US Dollar pulls back from multi-week highs, providing modest aid to gold. • Fed likely to hold rates higher for longer, capping meaningful upside for non-yielding metal. • US CPI increased 0.3% in June, spurring concerns over surging inflation from trade policies. • Focus shifts to US PPI and future Fed speeches for leads on monetary policy direction. • Technical resistance at $3,342–$3,343, stronger resistance around $3,365 and $3,400. Gold maintains investor attraction as a safe-haven asset in a heightened global economic uncertainty environment. Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump about imposing sharp tariffs on drug and copper imports fueled renewed fears of inflation triggered by trade and dampened economic growth. The concerns have prompted a wary market sentiment, with stocks under pressure and demand increasing for historically safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors grow nncreasingly worried about the long-term effects these trade policies might have, particularly when inflationary pressures begin to build up. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve continues to hold firm on keeping higher interest rates in place to bring inflation under control. Comments from Fed officials such as Susan Collins and Lorie Logan indicate that excessive easing could damage the economy’s momentum for the near future. The combination of ongoing inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy expectations, and international trade tensions has provided a backdrop under which gold is a strategic hedge. As investors track closely the release of economic data and central bank speeches, gold continues to be an important gauge of market sentiment and risk aversion. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price is displaying resilience just below $3,340, trading around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Although the metal has halted its pullback from a three-week peak, momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD remain even-keel, providing no clear indication of a reversal being bullish. A persistent move over the near-term resistance at $3,342–$3,343 can bring out the way to the $3,365–$3,366 region, with additional buying forcing the price nearer to the psychological $3,400 level. On the flip side, any dip below $3,320 may initiate new selling pressure, opening up support at $3,300 and $3,282. FORECAST Should gold be able to maintain the pressure over the $3,342–$3,343 resistance level, it could set the stage for a retest of the $3,365–$3,366 barrier in the near future. A firm break over this point would tend to draw further bullish attention, driving prices toward the psychologically significant $3,400 figure. Ongoing safe-haven buying interest, a correction in the US Dollar, or dovish statements from Federal Reserve representatives could further encourage this rallying action. Conversely, a failure to remain above the $3,320 support may spark a more pronounced corrective fall. In that case, gold could slide towards the critical $3,300 support region, and a breakdown below this level may expose the $3,283–$3,282 level, which was a recent one-week low. A firmer US Dollar, hawkish Fed, or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could sour the mood and hasten the downside journey to the July swing low near the $3,248–$3,247 range.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Poised for First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks on US Fiscal Jitters and Trade Uncertainty

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  • July 4, 2025
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Gold price is set to record its first weekly gain in three weeks, boosted by US fiscal jitters and revived trade uncertainty. Despite a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report that reduced hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, the US Dollar struggled to sustain gains amid rising fears over the country’s long-term debt trajectory following President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. Additionally, upcoming tariff changes and holiday-thinned trading conditions are keeping market participants cautious, yet the underlying safe-haven demand continues to support the precious metal, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising fears over long-term debt due to President Trump’s tax and spending bill are weighing on the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven demand for Gold. • A more-than-anticipated NFP reading has dulled near-term rate cut expectations, but softer wage growth leaves the door open for policy relaxation in the latter part of the year. • Gold price is battling a critical resistance level around the $3,352–$3,355 levels; a convincing break above may spark additional gains towards $3,400. • With US markets being shut on Independence Day, low trading volumes can induce volatility and risk aversion among XAU/USD traders. Gold price stays strong as it targets its first weekly advance in three weeks, supported by rising US fiscal tensions and ongoing trade-related volatilities. While the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls report briefly boosted the US Dollar and cooled speculation of an imminent Fed rate cut, the signing into law of President Trump’s tax-reduction and spending bill, which is expected to add $3.4 trillion to national debt, has lifted longer-term economic worries, topping USD gains. Combined with imminent tariff realignments and holiday-thinned market liquidity, these demand drivers still provide support to Gold safe-haven demand and maintain its near-term outlook biased to the upside. Gold price remains robust, underpinned by US fiscal worries and trade uncertainty even in the face of more-than-expected jobs data. Holiday-thinned market liquidity and the proximity of resistance to the 100-SMA may suppress the upside but overall remain bullish. • Gold is set to end a two-week losing streak, which will reflect renewed bullish momentum. • Fears surrounding President Trump’s spending bill and its $3.4 trillion debt burden are putting pressure on the US Dollar. • Stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data cut short-term Fed rate cut speculation but failed to fully bolster the Dollar. • Lower wage growth tempered inflation concerns, keeping hopes high for easing Fed policy in the future. • Gold finds it difficult to move past the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart at $3,352–$3,355, a pivotal zone. • US Independence Day has trimmed market liquidity, and traders are being cautious. • Continued trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to fuel demand for Gold. Gold is poised to break its two-week losing spree, underpinned by a favorable fundamental environment fueled by increasing fiscal worries in the United States and continued worldwide trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s huge tax-cut and spending bill’s approval has sent alarm bells ringing about the nation’s long-term debt horizon, shattering the US Dollar and causing an uptick in demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold. Also, uncertainty over planned tariff increases has further boosted investor appetite for Gold, with markets getting ready for prospective trade disruptions before the July 9 deadline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figure temporarily supported the US Dollar earlier by suppressing short-term Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Slower wage gains in the same release, though, smoothed out inflation worries, and left the window open for potential later-year monetary easing. With US markets shut on Independence Day, trading has been subdued but the underlying drivers still support a bullish sentiment in Gold as investors flock towards it for safety against increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is finding it difficult to clear the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which is behaving as a good resistance around the $3,352–$3,355 level. A breakdown past this level may set the stage for an extended rally to the $3,366 area and, possibly, the $3,400 psychological level. To the downside, near-term support comes in around the $3,326–$3,325 area, followed by more robust support at $3,311 and $3,300. A collapse below these levels may turn the tide in the bears’ direction, threatening to expose the $3,270 support zone and even the monthly low of $3,248 if the pressure from the bears mounts. FORECAST If Gold price is able to break and hold above the 100-period SMA in the vicinity of $3,355, it may create fresh bullish momentum. This will most probably pave the way for a move towards the next resistance at $3,366, followed by the psychological hurdle of $3,400. A long-term rally above these levels with a weak US Dollar and safe-haven demand could further push the price towards $3,420 in the short term. Conversely, a failure to breach the 100-SMA resistance can draw Gold back towards the immediate support level at $3,325. Breaking through this area can invite additional selling pressure, taking Gold down to $3,311 and further to the key $3,300 level. If selling momentum gathers pace, the fall can go as far as the $3,270 level, with a possible retest of the monthly low around $3,248.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

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  • June 27, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Back from Two-Month Highs Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty over Fed Policy

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  • June 16, 2025
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Gold prices fell back slightly after hitting almost a two-month high during the Asian session, as a upbeat risk appetite in equity markets took its toll on the safe-haven commodity. In spite of the decline, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran, still provide support for gold. Also, market participants are holding back in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to give new guidance on interest-rate reductions with evidence of easing U.S. inflation. As a moderate gain in the U.S. dollar places a limit on further advancement, overall gold’s downside is circumscribed, technicals indicating that any slide will offer new buying opportunities. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate prognosis, and this may have a strong impact on the U.S. dollar as well as gold prices. • The Israeli-Iran conflict persists in offering safe-haven support to gold amidst general market uncertainty. • Any major movement in the USD, particularly around its recent lows, could have a direct bearing on direction of gold prices. • Major resistance is at the $3,452-$3,500 level, and support around $3,400 and $3,360 levels of the uptrend channel. Gold prices have softened slightly after hitting a two-month high, weighed down by the positive sentiment in Asian equities. Nevertheless, the metal still finds support in heightening Middle Eastern tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors are also eyeing closely the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may give new signals about future interest rate cuts as there were signs of slowing U.S. inflation. Although the U.S. dollar’s modest recovery has limited some of gold’s advances, the downside is still constrained as traders remain jittery in anticipation of major economic and geopolitical events. Gold prices drop back from two-month high as Asian stocks climb, but safe-haven buying continues amidst tensions in the Middle East. FOMC meeting awaited for direction on prospective U.S. interest rate cuts, capping the downside for gold. • Gold prices decline slightly after reaching a two-month high in Asian trading. • Encouraging risk appetite in the equity markets suppresses the safe-haven demand for gold. • Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to underpin gold prices. • Traders tread carefully in anticipation of next week’s FOMC policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to leave the rates unchanged but is likely to indicate future cuts as inflation weakens. • The U.S. dollar gets a modest boost, capping gold’s near-term upside. • Key levels are resistance at $3,452-$3,500 and support at $3,400-$3,360. Gold prices are seeing mild pressure after they hit their highest level in almost two months. The positive mood in the Asian equity markets has somewhat reduced the allure of the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel remains a driving force for investor demand for safer assets. The military skirmishes between the two countries have intensified, with both sides firing at each other, contributing to global market anxiety and sustaining gold in general support. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, attention is turning to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold but investors are seeking clues over potential future cuts after inflation slowed and the economy was shown to have pockets of weakness. The Fed’s guidance will be influential in setting up expectations for the rest of the year, and any dovish sentiments can further impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the $3,400 threshold recently, indicating bullish vigor underpinned by the development of a rising trend channel on short-term charts. Bulls are still in control according to positive oscillators on the daily chart, and resistance is found at the $3,452-$3,453 levels. A distinct breakout above this level could potentially lead to a retest of the all-time high around the $3,500 psychological level. On the other hand, any pullback would likely find firm support around $3,400, and a sustained fall below $3,360 would invalidate the bullish setup, and it could switch the near-term bias towards sellers. FORECAST Should gold be able to break over the recent high in the $3,452-$3,453 region, it would potentially set the stage for a challenge of the psychological $3,500 mark. A convincing move above this obstacle might invite new buying interest and drive prices still higher, potentially continuing the current bullish trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions or a dovish Federal Reserve comment could serve as catalysts for sustained upside momentum. On the negative side, nearest support is seen at the $3,400 level, and subsequent weakness could push gold down towards the $3,360 zone, which is the lower end of the current uptrend channel. A move below this level with some conviction would change market sentiment and attract more selling pressure, potentially creating a more severe correction in the near term.

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Gold

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Falters Below $3,345 as Markets Wait for US CPI Report

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  • June 11, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is moderately higher, holding on to a slightly weaker US Dollar as investors go cautious in anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Although it posted gains, the commodity is encountering strong resistance around the $3,345 area, after a recent retreat from the previous week’s $3,400 top. Market sentiment is still weak following doubt about the sustainability of the US-China trade deal, with potential for further volatility if inflation data next week exceeds expectations. Technically, gold still seems to be in a corrective A-B-C sequence with the ability to test higher levels before continuing its southward trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is keenly observing the next US Consumer Price Index reading, which has the potential to shape inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. • Concern about the longevity of the US-China “framework” accord remains over market sentiment and go-safe-haven demand • Gold is experiencing stiff resistance around the $3,345 level, with further upside limited unless there is a breakthrough. • The ongoing A-B-C corrective phase points toward eventual short-term gains to $3,375 before bearish momentum resumes. Gold prices are trading with a modest positive bias as the US Dollar tapers globally, fueled by investor wariness prior to the highly anticipated US CPI report. XAU/USD, still under pressure below $3,345 resistance, continues to fail to revisit last week’s highs of around $3,400. The subdued market reaction to the US-China trade agreement, owing to its vagueness, contributes to the uncertainty. With inflation numbers set to bring in new signals, traders are being cautious, holding gold in a tight range of consolidation. Gold maintains modest gains as the US Dollar falters in anticipation of significant US CPI numbers. Resistance at $3,345 is holding back further gains, as doubts about the US-China trade agreement have investors in wait-and-see mode. Markets look to inflation numbers for the next move. • Gold (XAU/USD) makes modest gains in the face of widespread US Dollar weakness. • Resistance at $3,345 still caps further up-limits. • Investors are hesitant in anticipation of the release of US CPI. • Doubts surrounding US-China trade deal augment gold’s safe-haven buying. • Technicals indicate an ongoing A-B-C corrective pattern. • Potential short-term price higher towards $3,375 before possible further downswing. • Critical support is at $3,290 and then $3,245. Gold is supported since market players take a defensive approach prior to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The inflation reading is likely to give vital clues regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve going forward. With the uncertainty of price pressure and potential interest rate hikes, investors are shunning big positions, especially in the US Dollar, to provide indirect support to gold. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the newly signed US-China trade deal, presented as a “framework” to ease tensions, has not been able to generate robust market optimism. Insufficient tangible specifics and doubts over the long-term sustainability of the deal have kept the market mood cautious. This prevailing uncertainty continues to drive demand for safe-haven instruments such as gold, with investors seeking cover against possible global economic turbulence. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is in a corrective phase after its pullback from the recent high at around $3,400. Price is forming a narrow range, with resistance at $3,345 capping upside attempts. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is drifting around the neutral 50 level, reflecting indecision among traders. Elliott Wave shows a current A-B-C correction, with potential extension up to the $3,375 zone before any fresh selling momentum. Key support levels at $3,290 and $3,245 could attract buyers if approached. FORECAST If bullish momentum strengthens, gold may break above current resistance at $3,345. A breakout would potentially clear the way to the $3,375 area, which sits along the reverse trendline and may encourage additional buying interest. Further US Dollar weakness and a softer-than-anticipated US CPI print may serve as the catalyst needed for gold to retest higher prices and move toward last week’s high near $3,400. On the negative side, inability to breach the $3,345 resistance level can result in fresh selling pressure. A drop below near-term support at $3,290 can leave gold vulnerable to further losses, with the subsequent support area at $3,245, seen by past highs and lows. A higher-than-expected US CPI figure or favorable risk sentiment due to geopolitical events can push gold down as appetite for safe-haven assets fades.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls on Robust US Jobs Data but Remains Ahead of Key Fed Meeting

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  • June 7, 2025
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Gold prices fell for a second consecutive day after a better-than-expected US May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data sapped optimism for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut and strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Even though it dropped 0.84% on Friday to $3,322, XAU/USD is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30%, underpinned by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. Traders are now looking forward to next week’s inflation data releases and the Fed policy meeting soon, as the market re-adjusts for monetary easing further down the line in 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The strong NFP data lowers expectations for near-term rate reductions, with markets now pricing fewer than two cuts by the end of 2025. • XAU/USD needs to stay above the key $3,300 support or risk further losses down to $3,250 or lower. • Next week’s CPI, PPI, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment could continue to drive market sentiment and Fed policy expectations. • Tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East, and constant central bank gold buying, continue to offer a positive environment for Gold. Gold prices declined on Friday after a better-than-expected US jobs report strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields and lowered chances of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Even after the day’s loss, XAU/USD is still up more than 1.30% for the week, buoyed by persistent geopolitical tensions and consistent central bank buying. The market is now setting its sights on pivotal US inflation data releases later next week, which may further influence expectations leading up to the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting. Staying above the $3,300 support level is still vital for Gold to continue its bullish configuration in the near term. Gold declined following robust US jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the Dollar and yields higher. Gold maintains weekly gains above 1.30% despite the decline, underpinned by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. •  Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 0.84% on Friday, trading around $3,322 following robust US NFP data. •  The US created 139K jobs in May, topping estimates and maintaining the unemployment level at 4.2%. • Hawkish data prompted traders to trim back Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. • Gold is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30% despite losses on each day of the current week. • Key support for XAU/USD at $3,300 holds; a break here could see $3,250 or lower. • Market attention turns to next week’s US CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment releases. •  Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing geopolitics risks and central bank gold purchases. Gold was strong this week despite being challenged by a stronger-than-forecast US Nonfarm Payrolls for May. The on-going strength in the labor market, with 139K new jobs added and unemployment remaining at 4.2%, supported the view that the US economy is still strong. This information changed market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory, prompting investors to reduce rate reduction bets in the short term. This caused the US Dollar and Treasury yields to rise, which temporarily weakened Gold prices. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nonetheless, wider macroeconomic and geopolitical forces underpin the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset. Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and persistent uncertainty among global financial markets have sustained demand for bullion. Further, central banks continue to buy Gold to diversify away from US Dollar reserves. These structural forces might still underpin the long-term value of Gold irrespective of short-term volatility in economic fundamentals or market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in an extended bull trend despite recent retreats. The price is consolidating above the support level of $3,300, which is a pivotal base for continued upward momentum. A breakout and hold above this level may set the stage for a retest of the high of late at $3,403, with additional upside to the $3,450 level and all-time high of $3,500. However, if XAU/USD breaches below $3,300, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly bearish, suggesting a possible continuation of short-term weakness before any rebound. FORECAST If Gold holds resistance above the $3,300 level, bullish interest may resume, which could propel XAU/USD back towards the recent high of $3,403. A breach above that level could attract additional buying, taking prices up to the $3,450 resistance zone. If bullish sentiment gains strength, particularly against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions or low inflation readings, Gold may even test its record high near $3,500 in the sessions ahead. On the other hand, a firm break below the $3,300 support would activate a steeper correction. In that case, Gold can go down towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235, followed by the next major support area around $3,167, which was the high of early April. Strength in the US Dollar and increasing yields can provide additional pressure on the downside, especially if coming inflation data supports a hawkish Fed outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls as Better US Jobs and Trade Hopes Cool Rate Cut Bets

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  • May 3, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) continued to fall on Friday, weighed down by better-than-expected US jobs data and fresh optimism regarding US-China trade talks, both of which took the shine off the safe-haven asset. April’s Nonfarm Payrolls topped expectations, maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.2%, prompting traders to reprice expectations for hawkish Federal Reserve rate cuts. At the same time, China’s indication that it is willing to restart trade talks with the US improved market mood, triggering risk-taking and causing profit-taking in Gold. As XAU/USD pulled back from highs of about $3,269 to move near $3,226, the metal is set to close out the week with losses of more than 2.5%, with technicals indicating a break below major support at $3,200 in the cards. KEY LOOKOUTS •  April Nonfarm Payrolls surpassed expectations, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, leading traders to reduce aggressive Fed easing expectations. •  XAU/USD fell below $3,250 and is headed for a steep weekly fall as profit-taking gains momentum with better risk sentiment. •  China’s receptiveness to trade negotiations with the US boosted global risk appetite, lowering investor appetite for Gold. • RSI lower trends with XAU/USD expected to break the $3,200 support line to expose downside targets at $3,167 and the 50-day SMA at around $3,080. Gold (XAU/USD) declined on Friday as better-than-expected US jobs data and softening US-China trade tensions reduced demand for the safe-haven commodity. The April Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed job gains beating forecasts, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%, prompting traders to dial back bets on deep Federal Reserve rate cuts. Adding to the squeeze, China’s commerce ministry indicated that the US was receptive to trade negotiations, lifting market optimism and risk appetite. Consequently, Gold fell under the $3,250 price level, reaching around $3,226 and poised to break even for a weekly loss in excess of 2.5%, with its technical indicators in favor of moving below the support level of $3,200. Gold (XAU/USD) fell to about $3,226 as robust US jobs data and fresh trade optimism cut safe-haven demand. Traders trimmed Fed rate cut expectations, sending Gold towards a weekly decline of more than 2.5%. A fall below $3,200 may reveal additional downside levels. • Gold (XAU/USD) fell more than 0.35% on Friday, trading at about $3,226 and on track for a weekly decline of over 2.5%. •  Solid US Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecasts, with 177K jobs created in April and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, lowering the chances of hawkish Fed rate cuts. •   Investors now discount 78 basis points of Fed rate cuts, falling from earlier forecasts, shifting sentiment away from safe-haven assets such as Gold. • US Treasury yields increased strongly, with the 10-year yield increasing nine basis points to 4.312%, putting additional pressure on Gold. • Optimism surrounding trade improved risk appetite in markets, following confirmation that China has acknowledged that the US is willing to restart trade talks. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.20%, in spite of more robust yields, as markets responded mixed fashion. • Gold is near major technical support around $3,200 and faces increasing risk of further declines to $3,167 and the 50-day SMA around $3,080 if selling persists. Gold prices slipped this week as investor sentiment changed in response to strong US economic data and better US-China trade relations. The US labor market reported unexpected strength in April, with Nonfarm Payrolls beating estimates and the unemployment rate holding firm. This firm economic performance prompted most market players to rethink their interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, as a more robust job market lessens the need for monetary easing. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, global risk appetite improved after China’s commerce ministry said the U.S. was open to restarting trade talks. This newfound optimism in trade relations tempered demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold, with investors more inclined to take on risk elsewhere. Therefore, Gold experienced some selling pressure as traders sought to lock in profits and rebalance their portfolios in relation to changing macroeconomic conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) could not sustain above the $3,250 level, declining after not being able to overcome resistance at about $3,270. Price action is weakening bullish power, with the sellers taking the lead as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns lower. A continued decline below the important $3,200 support level may pave the way for further losses, targeting the next support at $3,167, then the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,080. On the other hand, if the buyers find their footing and drive the price back above $3,300, it may indicate a new attempt to test $3,350. FORECAST If bullish pressure returns, Gold (XAU/USD) may recover above the $3,200 level and target to regain resistance at $3,250. A clean break above this range would most likely draw fresh buying interest, which could drive prices towards $3,300. If that level is broken, the way could be open to challenge the $3,350 resistance, with $3,400 being a psychological level of importance. Increased geopolitical tensions, softer economic data, or dovish Federal Reserve signals would serve as catalysts for a move higher. On the negative side, a strong break below the $3,200 support level would speed up selling pressure, with Gold likely to move towards the next significant support at $3,167, which had served as resistance in early April. Persistent support for US economic metrics and eroding expectations for Fed interest rate cuts can also weaken demand for the metal further. Should the bearish strength continue, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $3,080 will become the next downside target, triggering a further correction in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Shines Bright: Prices Rally Amid Dollar Weakness and Trade Uncertainty

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  • April 19, 2025
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Gold prices ended the week on a high, gaining more than 2.79% as escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and a declining US Dollar stoked investor appetite for the safe-haven metal. Although hawkish rhetoric by Federal Reserve policymakers, such as Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, momentarily capped gains briefly, gold still managed to maintain above critical technical levels. The precious metal nudged a fresh all-time high of $3,358 before easing back marginally to $3,326, as market participants booked profits ahead of the long Easter break. Looking forward, all attention is fixed on US economic releases ahead, which will determine the next move of the dollar and the gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • Next week’s releases, which are the S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan final Consumer Sentiment report, will all be closely watched by traders and could decide gold’s next move. •  A crowded calendar of Fed speakers may provide new information on interest rate expectations, particularly following Powell’s recent hawkish comments that signaled ongoing policy tightening. • Gold is still in an uptrend, with $3,300 as pivotal support and the $3,350–$3,400 area providing the next resistance area. A break above would indicate new all-time highs. • Prolonged global trade tensions and geopolitical concerns are set to continue propping up gold safe-haven demand, despite the rise in real yields and Fed caution. Gold traders will continue to focus on some significant catalysts which may direct price action over the next few days. A hectic US economic calendar, with Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, will provide new hints about the state of the economy and possible interest rate action. In addition, a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials may back up or undermine the market’s existing rate assumptions, particularly in the wake of Powell’s recent hawkish comments. On the technical front, gold still trades above key support levels at $3,300, and a move through $3,350 may pave the way for a new record high. At the same time, unresolved trade tensions and geopolitical threats are set to continue keeping safe-haven demand active, supporting bullion beneath on-the-nose real yields rising. Gold traders will look to next week’s US economic releases and Fed speeches for new rate signals. Technical levels in the $3,300–$3,350 range continue to be key to direction. Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty should continue to support safe-haven demand. •  Gold prices rallied more than 2.79% this week, driven by a weaker US Dollar as global trade tensions and geopolitical risks escalate. •  XAU/USD reached a record high of $3,358 before profit-taking took prices back to $3,326 in the run-up to the extended Easter weekend. •  Federal Reserve’s hawkishness, including comments by Powell and Daly, capped further gains but not the trend for gold prices to the upside. •  US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.333%, with real yields increasing — posing short-term headwinds for gold prices. •  Technical perspective is bullish as far as prices remain above the $3,300 support level, with sights on $3,350 and $3,400 as the next goals. •  Investors look ahead to a packed week of US data, which includes Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Sentiment, for new direction in the markets. •  Continued trade and geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin safe-haven demand for gold despite rising real yields. Gold closed the week on an upbeat note as international trade tensions and geopolitical risks continued to push investors towards safe-haven assets. Even with assurances from the Federal Reserve on the robustness of the U.S. economy, ongoing worries surrounding global trade policy and possible slowdowns in the economy maintained the demand for gold firm. Market sentiment was also affected by increasing perceptions that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance could stay restrictive for a longer period, contributing to the risk-averse sentiment in global markets. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides trade and policy issues, investor attention is also being diverted towards next week’s release of some of the most important U.S. economic indicators, which will provide further insight into the state of the economy. A busy slate, which includes manufacturing activity, durable goods orders, and consumer sentiment readings, is likely to frame market expectations for the period ahead. Geopolitical tensions and worldwide uncertainty, however, are expected to maintain gold as an asset of choice for risk-averse investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s upmove is intact despite experiencing some profit-taking pressure after hitting its all-time high of $3,358. The precious metal still maintains above the crucial support level of $3,300, indicating that buyers are still present on pullbacks. A break above the $3,350 level for a sustained period could pave the way for another attempt towards the $3,400 psychological mark. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests overbought levels, the absence of substantial downside follow-through suggests limited selling interest at this time. So long as prices hold above the April 16 low of $3,229, the larger uptrend is likely to remain intact. FORECAST Gold’s upmove is firmly supported as long as prices are above the $3,300 level. A decisive break over $3,350 may see fresh buying strength, setting the stage for a possible retest of the record high at $3,358. If tensions in global trade and geopolitical uncertainties continue, safe-haven buying could intensify, driving gold to the next psychological level of $3,400. On the negative side, any inability to stay above the $3,300 support line may result in a more profound correction, with the next support being close to the April 16 low of $3,229. Increasing US real yields and Federal Reserve hawkish hints may dampen gold’s attractiveness in the short term, raising the chances of a pullback if economic reports surprise to the upside.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Reaches Two-Week High as Trade Tensions, Fed Rate Cut Speculation Continue to Fuel Bullishness

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  • March 13, 2025
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Gold prices have continued to push higher, touching a two-week high as trade tensions, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and a lower US Dollar drive strong support. Concerns that the economic costs of President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would prompt the EU and Canada to respond with their own measures have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, hopes for multiple rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve amid a slowing labor market and decreasing inflation have only added to gold’s allure. With the US Dollar close to multi-month lows, technical considerations indicate that gold could go higher, potentially into its all-time high of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • Concerns about increasing US President Trump tariffs and heightened trade tensions against the EU and Canada remain pushing safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold’s attractiveness grows with hopes for several Federal Reserve interest rate reductions this year under diminishing inflation and signs of moderation in the labor market. • A low US Dollar, closer to multi-month lows, contributes to further bullish support for gold, which has made it an even more sought-after asset for alternative assets investors. • Gold’s recent breakout above major resistance levels indicates additional upside potential, with the all-time high of $2,956 within reach if the momentum continues. Gold prices have been trending higher, fueled by fears of rising trade tensions, especially President Trump’s tariffs and retaliatory actions by the EU and Canada. These concerns have prompted investors to seek refuge in gold. Moreover, anticipation of several Federal Reserve rate reductions in the course of this year, driven by the evidence of deceleration in the labor market and decelerating inflation, has supported the attractiveness of gold further. The US Dollar, downgraded to multi-month levels, still supports gold, with it remaining an investor darling. With technical levels pointing toward ongoing momentum, gold is looking to test its record high, which further entrenches the bull case for the metal. Gold prices are rising, boosted by increasing trade tensions and Federal Reserve rate cut hopes. Weakness in the US Dollar is also boosting gold’s attractiveness, bringing it near its all-time high. • Increasing fears surrounding US tariffs and retaliation from the EU and Canada are compelling investors to seek safety in havens such as gold. • Wagers on several Federal Reserve rate reductions this year are supporting gold, as diminishing rates enhance the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. • A battered US Dollar, close to multi-month lows, is also lending support to gold, making it more appealing to investors. • Concerns over possible economic repercussions from trade wars and slowing inflation are still driving demand for gold. • A break above crucial resistance levels, such as $2,928-2,930, indicates additional upside potential, potentially reaching its record high of $2,956. • A lower-than-expected US inflation reading has boosted the rate cut expectations further, supporting gold’s price rally further. • While geopolitical uncertainties increase, gold continues to be a top choice as a hedge against market uncertainty, showing strong upward momentum in the short run. Gold prices have been trending higher on increased concerns about trade tensions, mainly President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs on foreign imports and resulting retaliations by the EU and Canada. Such fears of future economic slowdown are prompting investors towards gold, long regarded as a safe-haven investment when markets are uncertain. The growing market volatility from the current trade tensions has further driven demand for gold, as it is seen as a safe store of value amid geopolitical uncertainty. GOLD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides trade worries, hopes for several Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout the year have also helped to increase gold’s appeal. With signs of a cooling labor market and easing inflation, many market participants are betting that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy, which supports non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, a weakening US Dollar continues to provide favorable conditions for gold, as it makes the precious metal more attractive to investors looking for alternatives. Consequently, gold is in a solid uptrend, with investors following developments in the global economy very closely. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices have demonstrated strong bullish momentum, overcoming key resistance levels, such as the $2,928-2,930 range, opening the way for additional potential on the upside. The price action suggests gold is ready to test its all-time high of $2,956, with oscillators on the daily chart still firmly in positive ground, indicating room for further extension without touching overbought levels. So long as gold remains above the pivotal $2,930 support level, the outlook is good, and the rising trend can extend towards new highs. FORECAST Gold prices are set to maintain their rising trend, driven by persisting trade tensions and a softening US Dollar. As investor worries regarding the economic effect of tariffs and the risk of slowing down remain, demand for safe-haven gold should be firm. Furthermore, if Federal Reserve rate-cut hopes become a reality, this will add support to gold, taking prices to the all-time high of $2,956. With technical indicators continuing to reflect positive momentum, gold may break resistance levels and experience additional gains in the near future. Conversely, however, if the geopolitical environment stabilizes and trade tensions subside, there may be a gold price pullback as investor interest in safe-haven investments dissipates. A better-than-expected economic recovery or more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening of monetary policy could also blunt the attractiveness of gold. In these situations, gold could come under pressure, dropping back towards support levels near $2,912-$2,900 and potentially even lower in the event of a shift in favorable market conditions toward risk assets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Below $2,910 on Increasing US Yields and Firm Job Growth

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  • March 8, 2025
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Gold prices declined below $2,910 as US Treasury yields bounced back after the release of the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, which revealed firm job growth though missing estimates. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, reaffirmed that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, maintaining monetary policy intact for the time being. Although inflation is still a worry, Powell made it clear that the journey to 2% inflation will be rough. Central banks such as China’s PBoC and Poland’s NBP also continue to build up their gold reserves, giving some support to the metal. But increasing US real yields and declining geopolitical tensions capped gold’s upside potential. KEY LOOKOUTS • A US Treasury yield rebound can continue to put pressure on gold prices, particularly with increasing real yields affecting gold’s attractiveness. • The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates and Powell’s inflation remarks indicate that monetary policy will be tight, capping gold’s potential. • Softening geopolitical tensions, especially in Ukraine and Russia negotiations, may dampen gold’s safe-haven demand and pressure prices. • Continuous gold buying by large central banks such as China and Poland might offer price-supporting underlying fundamentals, counteracting general market pressure. Prices in gold are being pressured downwards by US Treasury yields recovering and real yields increasing, which has been historically inversely affecting gold’s attractiveness. The Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizing that achieving 2% inflation will be a “bumpy” process, suggesting that interest rates will stay steady for the time being. Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, have also reduced the safe-haven demand for gold. But central banks, such as China’s PBoC and Poland’s NBP, keep on taking gold, which should lend some underlying support to the precious metal in spite of overall market difficulties. Gold prices are in pressure because US Treasury yields move higher and the Fed indicates a stable direction for interest rates. Although softening geopolitical tensions lower safe-haven demand, central bank buying, especially by China and Poland, lends some support to gold prices. • Gold drops below $2,910 as US Treasury yields recover, exerting downward pressure on the metal. • The February Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates consistent job growth, with 151K jobs created, though missing expectations. • Federal Reserve officials, including Jerome Powell, indicate no hurry to reduce rates, stressing the necessity of a cautious approach to inflation. • Powell reaffirms that the path to 2% inflation will be “bumpy,” maintaining monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future. • Ukraine-Russia progress and US pressure on Hamas lower gold’s safe-haven demand, capping gains for the metal. • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and Poland’s National Bank (NBP) have added gold reserves, with Poland purchasing the most since 2019. • US real yields, especially on 10-year TIPS, rise, presenting a headwind to gold prices by lowering its relative attractiveness. Gold prices are under pressure following increases in US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve holding firm on interest rates. The latest US jobs report evidenced stable growth within the labor market with more joining the workforce while numbers fell short of expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the central bank isn’t in any hurry to cut rates, given that the route to 2% inflation is uncertain and tough. This risk-averse policy stance has caused a more balanced economic outlook, taking away some of the gold’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, relaxing geopolitical tensions, especially between Russia and Ukraine, have reduced the need for gold as a safe haven from world uncertainties. Improvement in ceasefire negotiations, coupled with a reduction in tensions in the Middle East, has also dampened gold’s presence in investors’ portfolios. In the meantime, central banks such as China’s People’s Bank of China and Poland’s National Bank are still buying gold, offering some sustained support to the metal. These central bank interventions, together with a strengthening global economic outlook, could assist in stabilizing gold prices in the face of wider market pressures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are met with resistance at the $2,930 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating that there is still room for additional upside. The metal has, however, been unable to climb above this mark, signifying a period of consolidation. A fall below the $2,900 level might indicate further downside risk, with the next significant support levels being the February 28 low of $2,832 and the $2,800 level. On the other hand, a break above $2,930 could pave the way for a possible rally towards $2,950 and even $3,000, if momentum keeps accelerating. The market is still in a tight consolidation, with the price action of gold very closely related to movements in US Treasury yields and general market sentiment. FORECAST If gold can break above the current levels of resistance, notably the $2,930 level, prices could have the potential to rise further. A sustained rally could have gold pushing through the $2,950 level, with a possibility of reaching the all-time high of $2,954. If momentum keeps gaining and overall market conditions are supportive, like further central bank gold buying and geopolitical tensions, the $3,000 mark could come into view. Also, if inflation remains in play or the Fed is signaling to postpone rate cuts, gold might attract even more strength as a hedge against economic uncertainty. On the negative side, if gold is unable to hold above the $2,900 level, further selling could be witnessed. A breakdown below this level would likely lead to a move towards the February 28 low of $2,832, followed by a possible test of the $2,800 support. Increasing real yields and a firmer US dollar can continue to depress gold, as it becomes less appealing relative to other assets. If the US economy continues to demonstrate strength, with the Fed still being aggressive on rates, gold may see further pressure, potentially pulling prices down in the near term.

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