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Gold Consolidates Below Record Highs as Traders Wait for Key US Labor Market Data

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  • September 4, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating below its all-time high of $3,578.50 as traders take profits and the US Dollar remains firm, tempering recent bullish momentum. Despite the respite, safe-haven demand is supported by softening US Treasury yields, tranquil global bond markets, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. With investor attention now on the ADP Employment report and upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls, labor market data will be crucial in determining near-term direction for Gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • ADP Employment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be instrumental in deciding Gold’s next move. • Markets price in high probability of a September rate cut, supporting safe-haven demand. • A firm Dollar and softening bond yields continue to shape Gold’s short-term path. • Calmer conditions in Japan and the UK lower safe-haven rush but support amid persistent fiscal risks. Gold prices are taking a breather below record highs as investors weigh profit-taking against persistent safe-haven demand. While the US Dollar’s firmness is weighing on sentiment, softer Treasury yields and tranquil global bond markets are helping to cushion the downside. With the Federal Reserve widely anticipated to cut rates in September, attention now shifts to US labor market data, including the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which are poised to guide Gold’s near-term direction. Gold is consolidating below its record high as traders wait for key US labor market data. Softening Treasury yields and Fed rate cut expectations support safe-haven demand, while the US Dollar’s firmness caps upside momentum. • Gold reached a record high of $3,578.50 before consolidating around $3,540. • Profit-taking and a firm US Dollar are weighing on sentiment. • Softening US Treasury yields are helping to cap downside pressure. • Tranquil global bond markets lower safe-haven rush but still support Gold. • Markets are pricing in a September Fed rate cut, supporting bullish bias. • Investor attention shifts to ADP Employment data and Nonfarm Payrolls for labor market cues. • Key support is at $3,500–3,450, while resistance remains at the record high of $3,578. Gold is taking a breather after a record-breaking run that pushed prices to new record highs, with investors looking to the next US labor market data for direction. The yellow metal remains supported by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, as cheaper borrowing makes it more attractive as a safe-haven asset. Softer global bond markets and declining US Treasury yields have also supported sentiment, keeping bullion demand well supported despite light profit-taking. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView The overall environment for Gold remains supportive as economic uncertainty, global trade tensions, and fiscal credibility concerns in major economies continue to underpin its status as a risk hedge. With markets already fully pricing in policy easing from the Fed, investors are now looking to the ADP Employment report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which are expected to dictate the direction of Gold’s next move. Meanwhile, the safe-haven theme continues to underpin the precious metal. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its record high of $3,578.50, with momentum indicators pointing to a potential cooling phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels above 70 but is trending lower, indicating room for a pause or pullback. Prices are also testing the upper Bollinger Band at $3,543, indicating stretched bullish momentum and the potential for a retreat to the 20-day moving average at $3,398 if profit-taking intensifies. Immediate support is at $3,511 and $3,500, while resistance is at the $3,578 peak, with a breakout opening the way to the $3,600 level. FORECAST If US labor market data is softer than anticipated, Gold may regain strong bullish momentum as hopes for a September Fed rate cut intensify. A sustained break above the record high of $3,578 would open the way for a move to the psychological $3,600 level, with further potential for upside if safe-haven demand picks up pace amid continued global economic and fiscal uncertainties. Conversely, more robust US jobs data or a more resilient US Dollar may provoke more aggressive profit-taking, sending Gold lower in the near term. Critical support levels are at $3,511 and the $3,500 psychological level, with a further drop potentially reaching the $3,450 area. A breakdown below these levels could indicate a more extensive correction, although the long-term bullish bias is still in place.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Remains Steady Near $3,350 as Markets Wait for US CPI Figures and Clarity on Tariff Policy

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  • August 12, 2025
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Gold remained steady around $3,350 on Tuesday after yesterday’s steep fall, as investors waited for the July US CPI figures to get new leads on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Market sentiment was positive following US President Donald Trump’s declaration exempting Gold imports from new levies, together with hopes of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and an extension of the US-China tariff moratorium. Although geopolitical and trade dynamics gave some respite, investors remained on guard, with the next inflation data due soon to be the catalyst for Gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  July inflation report should reveal headline CPI at 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, with core CPI expected to increase 0.3% MoM. • Trump’s revelation exempting Gold imports from new tariffs relieved supply chain fears but markets are holding out for an official executive order. • Hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and a 90-day US-China tariff truce extension have soothed near-term market nerves. • Gold continues below important resistance at $3,400 with bears risks to $3,320 and $3,250 unless CPI data triggers a bounce. Gold prices recovered around $3,350 on Tuesday after Monday’s steep 1.6% decline to a one-week low as markets waited for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. The valuable metal gained modest support from a weaker US Dollar and stable Treasury yields, as well as relief at US President Donald Trump’s announcement that Gold imports would be excluded from new tariffs. Hopes of possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the extension of the US-China tariff truce have alleviated near-term geopolitical and trade tensions. But with Gold still below the crucial $3,400 resistance level and technical indicators pointing to declining momentum, the next inflation report may be the ultimate catalyst for near-term price direction. Gold is trading at near $3,350 as market players wait for crucial US CPI data for new policy signals. Tariff relief on Gold imports and reduced geopolitical tensions provide comfort, but prices continue to be capped below $3,400 resistance. • Gold stabilizes around $3,350 after Monday’s 1.6% loss to a one-week low. • Traders look to July US CPI figures, due to demonstrate headline inflation at 2.8% YoY. • Trump declares Gold imports to be exempt from new US tariffs, alleviating supply fears. • Hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a 90-day US-China tariff truce extension improve mood. • US Dollar and Treasury yields are still subdued ahead of inflation data. • Technical charts indicate resistance at $3,400, with downside objectives at $3,320 and $3,250. • Weaker CPI might favor Gold prices, while hotter inflation might support the US Dollar and weigh on bullion. Gold prices traded around $3,350 on Tuesday as investors remained on their guard before the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, a key event likely to shape the next policy action by the Federal Reserve. The market gleaned some respite after US President Donald Trump announced Gold imports would be exempt from fresh US tariffs, easing fears over near-term supply chain disruptions. Optimism regarding potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce also eased market tensions, although investors continue to look for near-term economic data for clearer direction. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView July CPI is seen to report headline inflation increasing 0.2% MoM, with the year-over-year rate rising to 2.8%. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy, is seen increasing 0.3% MoM and 3% YoY, reflecting continued underlying pressures. These are watched closely for evidence that tariffs are being passed through into inflation and for their likely influence on the Fed’s September interest rate decision. Further focus will shift to comments from Fed officials later in the day, as well as future economic releases such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales that may continue to influence market forecasts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to struggle beneath the crucial $3,400 psychological level, with repeated failure to push higher maintaining it as a firm resistance area. On the 4-hourly chart, the prices are below both the 21-period SMA at $3,377 and the 50-period SMA at $3,363, showing diminishing bullish momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37, reflecting increasing downside momentum short of oversold levels, while the MACD remains in negative levels with a bearish crossover, reinforcing seller supremacy. There is immediate resistance at $3,363 and $3,377, with support at $3,330–$3,320, a break below which could reveal the $3,250 range floor. FORECAST If the US CPI report later this week is softer than forecasted, it may cement market views of a September interest rate reduction, weakening the US Dollar and enhancing the demand for Gold. A dovish turn in Fed commentary, combined with geopolitical and trade calm, may give Gold the push to retest the $3,377–$3,400 resistance range. A clear break above $3,400 would pave the way for a move to $3,450, with still higher gains on offer should safe-haven demand pick up. On the other hand, a hotter-than-anticipated CPI print would curb rate cut hopes, advance the US Dollar, and bear heavily on Gold prices. A breakdown below the $3,330–$3,320 support level may initiate a more severe correction to the floor of the $3,250 range. An extended violation of this level might intensify selling pressure, which could bring the $3,000 level back into play if risk appetite turns against safe-haven assets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Steady Near $2,900: Market Sentiment, USD Influence, and Prospects Ahead

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  • February 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stable near the $2,900 level, buoyed by persistent fears of a global trade war owing to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff measures. Though the precious metal gains from a softer US Dollar in the wake of disappointing retail sales figures, the market remains on guard as the Federal Reserve continues to stick to its hawkish stance. Optimism in US-Russia peace negotiations and positive risk mood have capped gains. Technically, gold’s positive bias holds good, with important resistance levels at $2,925 and an all-time high at $2,943, and key support levels of $2,885 and $2,855. Any solid break below $2,785 would lead to a sharp correction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Fears over Trump’s possible trade tariffs, such as on autos, may propel safe-haven demand for gold, greatly affecting price action. • The Fed’s aggressive stance and anticipation of extended higher rates can affect gold’s attractiveness, with market now looking towards a possible rate cut in September. • USD movement, as driven by economic releases and Treasury yields, is still a pivotal determinant of gold’s short-term price direction. • Gold is resisted at $2,925 and $2,943, while significant support levels at $2,885 and $2,855 may determine the next market direction. Gold price is still sensitive to various issues, such as US tariff policy, Federal Reserve actions, and the US Dollar strength. Increased fear of Trump’s possible trade tariffs, especially on cars, has supported safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, sentiment remains skewed towards a September Fed rate cut over year-end, which is supporting market views. The price action of the US Dollar, fueled by Treasury yields and economic data, is instrumental in setting the near-term gold direction. Technically, resistance around $2,925 and $2,943 could cap advances, with support around $2,885 and $2,855 being the game-changers in stopping a steeper correction. Gold price fluctuates around $2,900, pushed by US tariff worries, Fed actions, and USD fluctuations. Important resistance at $2,925 and support at $2,885 are still pivotal. • Gold price holds steady at the $2,900 level, buoyed by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical and economic risks. • Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs and possible automobile tariffs stoke fear of a worldwide trade war, making gold more attractive. • The hawkishness of the Fed and anticipation of a rate cut delay influence gold’s short-term price action. • A bearish US Dollar, fueled by poor US Retail Sales figures, has temporarily boosted gold prices. • US-Russia talks, as well as increased tensions in Ukraine, bolster gold’s safe-haven demand. • The resistance is found at $2,925 and $2,943, and the key support areas are at $2,885 and $2,855, dictating price action. • A combination of risk-on mood and tension about inflation impacts gold’s ability to hold gains or correct lower. Gold price continues to be technically resilient, holding on to its bullish foundation around the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off from overbought levels, diminishing the likelihood of an immediate correction while continuing to support additional upside potential. Critical resistance levels to monitor are $2,925, followed by the all-time high around $2,943. A successful breakout above this area could stimulate fresh buying, continuing the uptrend and opening the door to higher levels. Moving averages also show a strong bullish trend, supporting the potential for additional gains if market conditions continue to be favorable. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the downside, near-term support is at $2,885, followed by a more robust support area around $2,855 and $2,834. If gold falls below these levels, buyers might come in to support the uptrend, capping losses. Still, a clear-cut breakdown below $2,800 might turn sentiment to bearish side, causing a more extensive correction towards $2,785-$2,784. Participants also need to keep an eye on global economic news, specifically US interest rate expectations and geopolitics, that might fuel volatility and impact gold’s price movements in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price continues to be in bullish territory, sustaining itself at the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from the overbought territory, indicating scope for further action, with other oscillators remaining in positive favor. Near-term resistance is at $2,925, with the all-time high around $2,943. A convincing breakout above this level would propel fresh buying momentum, extending the current uptrend. Support is seen at $2,885 on the downside, with firm demand likely at $2,855 and $2,834. A break below $2,800 with continued momentum would indicate a deeper correction, and possibly a bearish change in direction. FORECAST Gold price is well-set up for additional gains, with good technical support and safe-haven demand being major drivers. If the price holds above the $2,900 level, an initial drive up towards the $2,925 resistance level is anticipated. A clean breakout above this level can see gold challenge its all-time high of $2,943, and if the momentum continues, it might stretch further to $2,960-$2,975. Events like continued US Dollar weakness, heightened geopolitical tensions, or a dovish turn in the Federal Reserve stance may further accelerate the rally in gold. Gold’s positive outlook notwithstanding, downside risks are present. If the price is rejected at resistance levels and goes below $2,885, it may lead to a pullback to $2,855 and then to $2,834. A breach below the crucial psychological level of $2,800 would mark a change in sentiment, leading to a more significant correction to $2,785 or even $2,750. Improved US economic data, a US Dollar rebound, or decreased geopolitical tensions may cap gold’s upside and mount selling pressure in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Soar to New All-Time Highs as Trade War Jitters, Inflation Loom

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  • February 10, 2025
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Prices of gold (XAU/USD) have maintained their bull run and even reached new all-time highs near the $2,896-$2,897 level as haven demand increases amidst heightened trade war jitters and inflationary pressure. US President Donald Trump declared new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, in addition to threatened retaliatory measures, which raised uncertainty and have prompted investors to rush to the safe haven. Meanwhile, upbeat US jobs data and persistent inflation worries are expected to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, providing further support to gold prices. Despite modest US Dollar strength and overbought technical conditions, the fundamental backdrop suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and key inflation data for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum escalate US-China tensions, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold amid economic uncertainty. • Rising inflation fears, fueled by protectionist policies, strengthen gold’s appeal as a hedge against price increases despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. • The Fed’s decision on interest rates remains key, as resilient labor market data and inflation trends could impact gold’s bullish momentum. • Gold faces resistance near $2,900, while overbought RSI signals possible consolidation; key support levels to watch are $2,855 and $2,834. Gold prices continue to rally amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Investors seek refuge in the safe-haven metal as economic uncertainty looms, while inflationary pressures further boost gold’s appeal. Despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, resilient US labor market data and persistent inflation could limit room for further rate cuts, supporting gold’s bullish outlook. However, technical indicators signal overbought conditions, suggesting potential consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level, with key support at $2,855 and $2,834 to watch for potential pullbacks. Gold prices surge to record highs amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. While the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance supports gold, overbought technical conditions hint at possible consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level. • XAU/USD reaches a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region amid strong safe-haven demand. • Trump’s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports escalate US-China tensions, boosting gold’s appeal. • Protectionist policies may reactivate inflation, reinforcing the reasons to hold gold as a hedge against rising prices. • Strong labor market and inflationary worries might prevent the Fed from reducing interest rates, further supporting gold’s bullish outlook. • A slight USD advance might cap the rally in gold, but the fundamental setup is supportive. • Gold is resisted around the $2,900 area, with overbought RSI conditions pointing to consolidation. • Immediate support lies at $2,855 and $2,834, with a further decline targeting the $2,815-$2,800 range. Gold prices continue their upward trajectory, reaching a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region as investors seek refuge in the safe-haven asset amid rising economic uncertainty. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has intensified fears of a trade war, prompting increased demand for gold. Additionally, concerns over inflationary pressures due to protectionist policies have further strengthened gold’s status as a hedge against rising prices. Meanwhile, the US labor market remains resilient, with a lower-than-expected unemployment rate, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy. Despite modest US Dollar strength, gold maintains its bullish momentum, signaling strong investor confidence in the metal. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a potential short-term consolidation or pullback. The key resistance level stands at $2,900, and a sustained break above this could push prices toward $2,920-$2,930. On the downside, initial support lies at $2,855-$2,854, with stronger buying interest expected around $2,834. If bearish pressure intensifies, the next critical support zone is near $2,815-$2,800. Moving averages indicate continued strength, reinforcing the long-term uptrend, while traders closely watch upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve signals for further price direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate the possibility of short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before further gains. The immediate resistance lies at the psychological $2,900 level, and a sustained breakout above this could push prices toward the $2,920-$2,930 range. On the downside, initial support is seen at $2,855-$2,854, with further key levels at $2,834 and $2,815. If gold breaks below these levels, a deeper retracement toward the $2,800 mark could follow. Moving averages continue to move up, specifically 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Traders would watch the short-term momentum indicators and price action for a breakout confirmation in either direction, given that short-term direction could shift based on upcoming US inflation numbers and signals coming from the Fed. FORECAST The current trend in the gold prices continues to remain uptrended; safe haven, as well as inflation, would continue to sustain the uptrend. The bullish momentum suggests that gold could break above the psychological $2,900 mark, with the next potential target around $2,920-$2,930. If trade tensions between the US and China escalate further or inflation fears intensify, gold may see additional upside, attracting more investors seeking a hedge against economic instability. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates will also play a crucial role in sustaining the bullish momentum. Should the Fed signal a more dovish approach due to persistent economic risks, gold could gain further, testing new record highs in the coming weeks. Despite gold’s strong rally, short-term pullbacks remain a possibility due to overbought technical conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is approaching an overextended zone, suggesting the potential for a temporary correction. If profit-taking sets in, initial support is expected near the $2,855-$2,854 region, followed by stronger support at $2,834. A deeper retracement could bring the price down to $2,815 or even the $2,800 psychological level, where fresh buying interest

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Commodities Gold

Gold price Struggles near record highs as USD gains, Fed Rate speculations in focus

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  • February 7, 2025
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The gold price XAU/USD has remained at near record levels but failed to make any real momentum as the US Dollar was slightly higher going into the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Though trade war tensions and a general expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut should keep the precious metal well supported, caution continues to prevail in bullish traders’ camp. Deteriorating US Treasury yields and persisting economic jitters remain supportive of safe-haven gold. However, the technical indicators provide an overbought reading-a precursor to near-term consolidation before an extended move, after which the key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will watch the breach down for further correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next NFP report will dictate the market expectations about the Fed’s rate path and, hence, the USD demand and the gold price direction in the near future. • Multiple Fed rate cuts by 2025 are supporting gold, but strong labor market data could alter this scenario. • Increasing geopolitical risks and retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US goods improve the safe-haven appeal of gold, capping downside risks despite short-term USD strength. • Gold remains near record highs, but RSI signals overbought conditions, with key support at $2,855 and resistance near $2,900 for further momentum. Gold price remains near record highs as investors weigh multiple factors, including the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and escalating US-China trade tensions. While the weakening US Treasury yields and safe-haven demand support gold, a modest USD uptick ahead of key economic data creates short-term uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, signaling a potential consolidation before any further uptrend. Key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will be crucial in determining the next move, while resistance near $2,900 could challenge bullish momentum in the near term. Gold price lingers around record highs due to Fed rate cut expectations and trade tensions, yet it faces strong resistance from a modest USD uptick. Determinative key levels will be for the next step: $2,855 and $2,900. The technical indicators go even further to suggest short-term consolidation. • Gold refuses to hold its ground off the all-time high for a modest USD uptick. • Market speculations of several Fed rate cuts in 2025 support gold’s bullish view even with positive labor market numbers. • The NFP release will influence USD demand and is likely to push gold in one direction or another. • Growing geopolitical tensions, along with China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, will continue to boost gold’s safe-haven status. • Declining bond yields make non-yielding assets, such as gold, more appealing and add more support. • This RSI indication of overbuying could eventually lead to temporary consolidation before entering an extended rise. • Areas of support here are at the levels of $2,855 and $2,800 and resistance is capped near $2,900 for the bulls Gold price in XAU/USD stays almost at all time highs but under pressure due to a slight upside in the USD as investors focus on the NFP from the US. While positive expectations about rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US Treasury yields continue to support the bullish outlook on metal, short-term consolidation seems probable because of technical overbought conditions. Apart from those factors, geopolitical risks, particularly increasing tensions in the US-China trade, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, preventing a more significant downtrend despite some profit-taking. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The price of gold is trading close to record highs due to the expectations of cuts in the Federal Reserve rate and safe-haven demand amid US-China trade tensions. However, a modest increase in the US Dollar ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report has capped the further upside and thus the market sentiment is cautious. The technical indicators are also pointing towards an overbought situation, and a short-term pullback may occur before the next breakout. The important resistance levels are at $2,900 while support at $2,855 and $2,800 will definitely be the make or break situation. Traders are closely observing any significant change in economic data and geopolitical development which will define gold’s price action in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend but faces resistance near the $2,900 level, while key support is seen at $2,855 and $2,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the market is overbought, so the price might enter into short-term consolidation before another breakout. A decisive move above $2,900 will open the way to further growth, while a break below $2,800 will trigger additional selling pressure. Although the moving averages stay aligned in favour of bulls and continue to confirm the overall bullish trend, traders should expect corrections before fresh long positions. FORECAST Gold prices remain in long-term bullish, supported by expected multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, and declining U.S. Treasury yields. If the NFP data does indicate a weakness in the US labor market, it would bode well for gold, potentially pushing prices beyond the key resistance at $2,900. A sustained move above this would open the path for further rallies towards $2,950 and even $3,000 within the next week or so. Furthermore, growing US-China trade tensions and a general sense of economic uncertainty might keep demand pretty high for the yellow metal since investors are still looking for safety from market volatilities. Despite its strong rally, gold faces short-term downside risks due to overbought technical conditions, with the RSI signaling the possibility of a pullback. If the US Dollar strengthens further or NFP data beats expectations, gold could see a correction toward the $2,855 and $2,800 support levels. A decisive break below $2,800 could trigger additional selling pressure, potentially dragging prices toward $2,750 or lower. However, some fundamentals – such as monetary policy by central banks and political uncertainty – would be unlikely to let gold decline sharply and will keep the gold supported in the long term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls from Record Highs as USD Strength and Market Uncertainty Take Hold

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  • February 4, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its all-time high amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and improved economic data. While Trump’s three-month tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada gives the market hope, concern for the bigger picture still has his broader trade policies and the inflationary impact sustaining gold as a safe haven. Even on near-term consolidation, the overall trend remains bullish, with strong supports around $2,773-2,772 going to limit the downward moves. Investors remain cautious ahead of US economic data releases, which could influence both the USD and gold’s trajectory. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold loses ground from records as a resurgent US dollar and rising Treasury yields cap near-term upside potential for the yellow metal. • Fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs and their implications on inflation will continue to prop up gold as a safe-haven asset even as US-Mexico-Canada relations stabilize. • A dovish yet cautious Fed cuts, fueled by solid economic statistics, supports the USD, curtailing gold’s short-term bullish prospects. • Support lies at $2,773-2,772 with resistance at $2,830. A breakout would determine the course to be chosen for gold amid increasing market uncertainty. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats off record high; strength US Dollar, surging yields in Treasury weigh on momentum, as Trump’s timed tariff pause on Mexico and Canada bolsters market confidence, but overall worries for trade policies and a runaway inflation scenario continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts have further strengthened the USD, limiting gold’s immediate upside. However, key support at $2,773-2,772 is expected to cushion any downside, while a break above $2,830 could reignite bullish momentum. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming US economic data, which could influence gold’s trajectory. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its record high as a stronger US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields limit gains. Concerns over Trump’s trade policies and inflation support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Key levels at $2,773-2,772 provide support, while a breakout above $2,830 could signal further upside. • XAU/USD retreats from its all-time peak as a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weigh on bullish momentum. • The temporary suspension of Mexico-Canada tariffs provides a boost to market confidence, but overall trade policy fears and inflation worries keep the safe-haven appeal of gold locked in place. • Strong US economic data and the Fed’s gentle approach to cuts further support the USD, making gold less appealing in the near term. • Gold remains supported around $2,773-2,772; any drop below this could extend declines toward $2,755 and $2,725. • Bulls must overcome this level in order to get back on an uptrend and a successful breakout could propel gold to even more significant targets. • JOLTS job openings and factory orders reports, the next few days, will shape both the action of the USD and gold • Despite near-term consolidation, gold is in an uptrend as inflation worries and global economic uncertainty weigh. The US Dollar’s resurgence, which has been coupled with rebounding Treasury bond yields and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, is leading to a pullback in the gold price from its record high. Although President Trump’s move to temporarily halt tariffs on Mexico and Canada boosted investor confidence, overall concerns regarding trade wars and inflation remain. Strong US economic data, including a rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and inflation indicators, has further strengthened the greenback, making gold less attractive in the short term. However, gold remains well-positioned as a hedge against inflationary pressures, limiting the downside and keeping the overall bullish trend intact. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s near-term price action suggests consolidation, with key support around the $2,773-2,772 region. Any breakdown beneath this point would be followed by fresh declines toward $2,755 and then conceivably to $2,725. On the upside, resistance at $2,830—Monday’s record high—is the final hurdle in the way of further advances. In the case of renewed bullish momentum, an extension of the rally from December’s $2,583 low might see prices rise. Market players are closely watching the upcoming US economic data, such as JOLTS job openings and factory orders, which may give further direction for both the USD and gold’s next move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase after hitting its all-time high. The key support levels are at $2,773-2,772. A breakdown below this zone could extend losses toward $2,755 and further to the $2,725-$2,720 region. However, the bigger picture trend is still positive, and each dip will only attract buying. On the way up, near-term resistance rests at $2,830 – the recent peak – and if it breaks convincingly above here, the momentum could get fired up again with a view towards new highs. The RSI is overbought, meaning a short-term pullback into the next leg higher is quite possible. Traders will be closely monitoring price action around the important levels for possible trades. FORECAST XAU/USD price in gold keeps a positive scenario despite the short-term consolidation and still enjoys a key level resistance area at $2,830 as an important breakthrough. If the spot above this level can be sustained, the new rally towards $2,850 is expected with further continuation towards the psychological level of $2,900. The continued inflation fears, as well as uncertainty about US trade policies, could maintain demand for gold as a hedge. Also, any dovish shift by the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected US economic data will help support gold’s upside momentum. The yellow metal remains well-positioned for further gains in the medium term given the broader uptrend from December’s swing low at $2,583. Although gold has a bullish structure, the upside is capped by downside risks, mainly fueled by a rising US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields. If selling pressure increases, the first layer of defense for gold is $2,773-2,772, which is a crucial support area. A break below this level will expose the commodity to further

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Continues Rising, With Potential to Rise Further, Amid Economic Uncertainty and Declining US Bond Yields

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  • January 30, 2025
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Gold prices are trading near weekly highs above $2,765 as it continues its steady climb, driven by declining US bond yields and increasing concerns over the economic impact of former President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs. While the hawkish pause by the Federal Reserve retains a semblance of stability in the US Dollar, sliding Treasury yields and expectations of future policy easing lend support to the non-yielding metal. Investors remain cautious as the market awaits key economic events, which include the European Central Bank (ECB) decision and the US Q4 GDP report. As for technicals, the cue of moving above the resistance zone of $2,772-$2,773 could provide room for a higher move toward $2,786 and even the record high of $2,790. However, the $2,745 support break below could attract some selling pressures, which is more likely at $2,730-$2,725. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve’s rate hold puts some immediate easing before policy but keeps the US Dollar resilient enough to cap the uptrend of the Gold. • Sliding US Treasury yields weaken the US Dollar, enhancing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. • Potential economic fallout from Trump’s tariff plans increases market volatility, driving safe-haven demand for Gold as investors assess global trade risks. • A breakout above $2,772-$2,773 could push Gold toward all-time highs, while a drop below $2,745 may trigger further downside. Gold prices continue upward, driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, sliding US bond yields, and safe-haven demand amid worries over Donald Trump’s trade policies. The Fed’s hawkish pause keeps the US Dollar relatively strong, thereby limiting immediate upside potential for gold, but future policy easing and lower interest rates continue to buoy bullish sentiment. Investors are careful to follow the key technical levels and, in the event of a breakdown above $2,772-$2,773, prices may move up towards all-time highs at $2,790. However, a fall below $2,745 could be seen carrying on further downward pressure. Therefore, the next price move will largely depend on the upcoming European Central Bank’s decisions and US economic releases. Gold prices remain strong amid economic uncertainty, sliding US bond yields, and trade concerns. A breakout above $2,772 could push prices higher, while support near $2,745 remains crucial. Investors await key economic data for further direction. • XAU/USD trades above $2,765, supported by declining US bond yields and safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady keeps the US Dollar strong, limiting Gold’s upside potential. • Sliding US Treasury yields weaken the USD making Gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset. • Worries about an economic backlash from the proposed Trump tariffs boost safe-haven demand for Gold. • Breaking above $2,772-$2,773 may take Gold up to the $2,786-$2,790 area, very close to its all-time highs. • A slide below $2,745 may provide the catalyst for further declines, strong supportive below $2,725-$2,730. • Investors focus on the ECB policy decision and US Q4 GDP report for further market direction. Gold prices continue to trade near weekly highs, benefiting from sliding US bond yields and safe-haven demand amid growing economic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause has kept interest rates steady, supporting the US Dollar and limiting Gold’s gains. However, fears of the economic implications of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and his calls for lower interest rates have further fueled expectations of future monetary easing, adding to Gold’s appeal. Declining US Treasury yields have also further weakened the USD, making the non-yielding yellow metal an attractive investment option. Investors are currently closely following the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision and the release of US Q4 GDP later today for more market direction. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold is still strong at current levels near weekly highs while investors continue reacting to economic uncertainty, falling US bond yields, and trade policy concerns. The hawkish Federal Reserve stance has provided some support to the US Dollar. However, with expectations of further rate cuts and inflationary pressures, the upside momentum of Gold remains favored. A breakout above the $2,772-$2,773 resistance zone would push prices to $2,786 and test the all-time high of $2,790. However, if Gold is unable to sustain its gains, a break below $2,745 could fuel further declines. Support could then be found around $2,725-$2,730. Market participants are focusing on the major economic events, such as a policy decision by the European Central Bank and US PCE inflation data, which will define the next move for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains bullish as it broke above its major resistance zone of $2,720-$2,725. The next major sell-off area is at $2,772-$2,773, and a successful breakout above that may send the prices to the range of $2,786-$2,790 and close to all-time highs. Positive oscillators on the daily chart support the continuation of the rally. On the downside, initial support is placed at $2,745 with stronger support placed in the area of $2,725-$2,730. A move below these will continue to see selling pressure accelerating, and eventually, prices are expected to plummet to $2,707 and then to $2,684. Market participants will be focused on market sentiment and key events in the economic calendar to gauge the next directional move in the price of Gold. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to move higher as bullish momentum is further supported by the decline in US bond yields, economic uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. A breakout above the key resistance at $2,772-$2,773 could open the door for an extended rally toward $2,786, followed by the all-time high near $2,790. If buying pressure continues, a further push beyond the $2,800 psychological level could trigger fresh bullish sentiment, reinforcing Gold’s well-established uptrend. Also, there is an expectation of further future monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, which can be the reasons for further surge in Gold’s price in the future sessions. Yet, the bullish view cannot fully remove the vulnerability of Gold towards possible downside corrections. If the price fails to hold above $2,772, it might

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