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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stands Firm with Trade Uncertainty and Divided Fed Cues

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  • July 10, 2025
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Gold prices maintain a firm bias for the second day running on the back of safe-haven demand due to rising trade tensions and a weakened US Dollar. Even as risk aversion is heightened by uncertainty about President Trump’s recent tariff policies, divided cues from the Federal Reserve on further rate cuts leave investors hesitant. The release of the FOMC minutes showed limited immediate support for a rate cut, capping gold’s upside despite falling US bond yields. As markets await US jobless claims data and further comments from Fed officials, gold remains range-bound near the $3,320 mark, with key resistance and support levels in focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key short-term trigger that could influence Fed rate cut expectations and Gold’s direction. • Any dovish or hawkish language would affect market sentiment surrounding interest rates and the USD. • Ongoing USD weakness and falling Treasury yields might be bullish for gold prices. • Reactions to Trump’s fresh tariffs and any retaliation will be a primary driver of safe-haven flows. Gold prices are holding up near $3,320 as investors grapple with a blend of global trade tensions and ambiguous Fed policy indications. President Trump’s most recent tariff announcements, such as a 50% tariff on copper imports, have further fueled market anxiety, pushing safe-haven flows into gold. The Fed’s meeting minutes meanwhile showed the policymakers were divided in their stance on rate cuts this month, although most policymakers continue to foresee easing later this year. This volatility, complemented by declining US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar, still provides underlying support to the non-yielding metal despite upside being capped by better risk sentiment in the equities. Gold prices are supported by increasing trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar, trading firmly around $3,320. Yet, dovish Fed signals and firmer equities are capping further gains. US jobless claims and Fed commentary are now awaited for direction. • Gold trades at $3,320 with a small intraday gain for the second consecutive day. • Trade tensions rise following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and warning of no exemptions or extensions. • Mixed opinions about rate cuts in FOMC minutes, with minimal near-term support but anticipation of easing towards year-end. • US Dollar again weakens for the second straight day, supporting Gold’s safe-haven status. • US bond yields fall, following the strong 10-year Treasury auction, underpinning non-yielding assets such as Gold. • Technical resistance at $3,335 and $3,360; breaking through could take Gold up to the $3,400 level. •  Key data ahead includes US Weekly Jobless Claims and Fed speeches, which could drive short-term market direction. Gold continues under the spotlight as international financial markets respond to heightened trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The latest action from US President Donald Trump to introduce new tariffs on various trading partners, including a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, has created uncertainty among investors. This geopolitical tension has rekindled demand for classic safe-haven assets such as gold, with market players seeking stability in the face of growing policy uncertainty and the possibility of retaliation from impacted countries. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes reflect intramural discord, as some policymakers are not keen to reduce interest rates in the near future. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement that rate reductions might be necessary later in the year if inflation remains benign and trade tensions suppress economic growth. These themes, together with a deteriorating US Dollar and risk-averse sentiment, continue to provide a bullish environment for gold in the larger market context. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains at the $3,320 level with a marginal bullish bias. Initial resistance is at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3,335, followed by a stronger zone of supply between $3,358 and $3,360. A forceful breakout above this area might initiate more bullish pressure, perhaps driving prices towards the $3,400 psychological mark. To the downside, a break below the support at $3,300 might reveal the $3,283–3,282 area, with additional losses risking a descent towards the monthly low at $3,248–3,247. Generally, traders need to look out for a definitive breakout or breakdown from these decisive technical levels for affirmation of the next move. FORECAST If geopolitical tension continues to spike and the US Dollar stays pressured, gold prices may witness fresh buying interest. A breakout above the $3,335 resistance level would set the stage for a move towards the $3,358–3,360 supply zone. Sizing through this barrier may initiate a short-covering rally, which has the potential to drive prices towards the $3,400 psychological level in the near future, provided that forward US economic data or Fed rhetoric aids the rate-cutting case. On the other hand, if the US is not able to negotiate trade deals by the August 1 tariff deadline, worldwide trade tensions could rise aggressively, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar. Also, if near-term UK economic releases are disappointing or worry over rising national debt and geopolitical tensions picks up pace, the GBP could be underpinned. A breakdown below the 1.3500 psychological support level may result in additional declines towards the next major point at 1.3400.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Sparkles at $3,330 as Trade War Uncertainties and Weaker USD Increase Safe-Haven Buying

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  • July 5, 2025
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Gold prices remain in the spotlight, trading above $3,330 and heading for a more than 1.5% weekly increase, as an escalation of global trade tensions and a softer US Dollar increase safe-haven buying. US President Trump’s announcement of tariffs between 10% and 70% to kick in on August 1 has increased market wariness, and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks regarding potential retaliatory tariffs in 100 countries further fueled uncertainty. Strong US labor fundamentals and stiff Treasury yields notwithstanding, expectations of a Federal Reserve pause in interest rates are sustaining bearish optimism. Investors are waiting with bated breath for future FOMC minutes and jobless claims releases for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders await the effect of Trump’s suggested 10% to 70% tariffs and their effect on global trade and safe-haven investments such as gold. • As there is decent labor data and consistent yields, traders are waiting for hints in future FOMC meeting minutes on any likely rate actions. • Declining US Dollar in the face of growing national debt and conservative Fed rhetoric may continue to buoy gold prices. • The key resistance remains at $3,400 and $3,452, while a break below $3,300 may pave the way towards $3,246 or even $3,120. Gold is holding firm above $3,330, rising more than 1.5% this week as investors move towards safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and fears of trade wars. The revelation of possible US tariffs of 10% to 70%, to be rolled out on August 1, triggered fears of the strain on world economies, further damaging the US Dollar and supporting bullion demand. Though robust US labor statistics and solid Treasury yields will constrain upside potential, hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve policy are sustaining gold’s rally. Traders now anticipate FOMC minutes and jobless claims for better hints at monetary policy. Gold prices creep up past $3,330 with trade war concerns and a weakening US Dollar driving safe-haven demand. Investors will be waiting for important Fed cues next week, with FOMC minutes and jobless claims being watched. • Gold is trading above $3,330, more than 1.5% higher for the week, on safe-haven demand. • Trump imposes tariffs of 10% to 70%, starting August 1, raising specter of trade war. • US Treasury Secretary expects retaliatory tariffs from about 100 nations. • US Dollar drops under pressure from surging national debt and policy uncertainty. • US labor market remains resilient, but private sector hiring weakens in face of economic prudence. • Gold’s rally limited by solid US Treasury yields, with the 10-year at 4.338%. • Technical levels to monitor: Resistance at $3,400/$3,452, support at $3,300/$3,246. Gold is picking up steam as investors flock to the yellow metal for safe haven as geopolitical and economic tensions grow. Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of future tariffs between 10% and 70% on various nations has set the markets in a state of panic. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that almost 100 nations were potentially in the crosshairs for reciprocal tariffs, which has heightened fears over global trade disruptions. These events have boosted demand for gold, a classic safe-haven investment, particularly as market players prepare for possible ripple effects on economies. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the trade tensions, political events and fiscal issues in the US are contributing to the allure of gold. The suggested extension of the 2017 tax reductions through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit, which could weaken the US Dollar in the long run. At the same time, geopolitical discussions—like Trump’s recent talks with Russia and Ukraine leaders—show that there is still instability, driving investors deeper into assets such as gold. As markets are taking in these wider risks, gold continues to reap the rewards of acting as a hedge against uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still consolidating above the pivotal $3,300 support level, and momentum gauges such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are holding near the middle ground, hinting at a slowdown in bull runs. Gold has not broken out above its last cycle high of $3,452, which implies that the buyers are going to require stronger drivers to turn the prices higher. A breakout above $3,400 and $3,452 would confirm renewed bullish strength, targeting the all-time high near $3,500. On the downside, sustained weakness below $3,300 could open the door for a pullback toward $3,246, a critical level for maintaining the broader uptrend. FORECAST If the geopolitical tensions rise further and the US Dollar stays weak, gold may return to strong bullish momentum. A clear break above the $3,400 level would most probably attract more buyers, with the subsequent target lying at $3,452—the former cycle high. Breaking above this resistance area might move prices towards the psychological benchmark of $3,500, particularly if the Federal Reserve sticks to a dovish policy or economic uncertainty accelerates. On the other hand, if US data remains to be resilient—specifically in labor markets and inflation—and Treasury yields continue to advance, gold can come under selling pressure. A break below the $3,300 support level might initiate a more profound correction down to $3,246. If this support level also breaks, further losses might result in a test of the $3,120 area where buyers might re-enter to protect the longer-term bullish trend.

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