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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weighed Down by Stronger US Dollar and Risk Averse Markets as US NFP Report Looms

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  • June 6, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to be under pressure for the second day in a row with dismal domestic data coupled with increasing hopes over US-China trade negotiations detracting from the safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stays supported ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, though gains remain limited due to growing expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year. In spite of the prevailing bearishness surrounding the Yen, the disparity between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, as well as ongoing geopolitical concerns, could assist in limiting further declines in the JPY and limiting substantial upside to the USD/JPY pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are keenly observing the release of future US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which might have a considerable impact on USD/JPY direction based on the strength of the labor market and implications for Federal Reserve policy. • Speculation that the Bank of Japan might continue to hike rates as the Federal Reserve ponders cutting in 2025 might cap USD upside and underpin JPY resiliency on the medium term. • The USD/JPY currency pair is probing important resistance at the 144.00 level, and a breakout above it—especially above 144.40—can be seen as a sign of fresh bullish momentum. • Declining Japanese household spending and wages increase recession possibilities, which can weaken consumer activity and negatively impact JPY sentiment unless met with accommodative policy actions. Japanese Yen continues to decline against the US Dollar as a mix of weak Japanese economic data and upbeat sentiment regarding US-China trade relations suppresses demand for the safe-haven currency. The USD/JPY pair is still underpinned, though momentum is subdued ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which may tilt expectations for future Fed policy actions. As the Yen is under downward pressure, losses for it could be capped by the Bank of Japan’s growing hawkish attitude and ongoing geopolitical risks that might revive demand for safe-haven assets. The Japanese Yen is under pressure in weak domestic data and stronger US Dollar in the run-up to the NFP report. Nevertheless, BoJ’s hawkish bias and global tensions might limit additional JPY losses. Traders remain cautious around crucial technical levels. • The Japanese Yen is still on the backfoot for the second consecutive day on account of disappointing domestic spending and wage figures. • The US Dollar receives support from repositioning in anticipation of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. • Divergent policy expectations—BoJ tilting hawkish, Fed anticipating rate cuts in 2025—may cap any further USD/JPY gains. • Hopes regarding resumed US-China trade talks diminish the safe-haven demand for the Yen. • The 144.00 and 144.40 levels are pivotal resistance levels for USD/JPY, with bullish strength depending on a breakout. • A fall below 142.75 may open up the pair to further losses towards the support area of 141.60. • US fiscal worries and global tensions can prevent the JPY from falling sharply, acting as a safeguard for the currency. The Japanese Yen is currently under pressure downwards as recent economic figures from Japan indicate slowing consumer expenditure and falling real wages. These trends are of concern to Japan’s economic prospects, particularly as private consumption contributes a major percentage of the nation’s GDP. Concurrently, increased hopes about the return of US-China trade negotiations have reduced the appeal of the Yen as a safe-haven currency, and investors have turned towards riskier assets. In the meantime, the US Dollar is still relatively firm as traders look towards the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) soon, which will be an important gauge of the US labor market’s health and can have an impact on subsequent Federal Reserve policy making. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Despite the current pressure on the Yen, expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain a tighter monetary policy contrast with the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts next year, creating a policy divergence that could limit further depreciation of the Yen. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns about global economic stability continue to support demand for safer assets, including the Yen. Japan-US trade talks are also advancing, as Japan has put on the negotiating table a more flexible US auto tariff approach that could further impact currency trends. Overall, while the Yen is strained in the short run, there are many factors that could stabilize the currency in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a specific range, establishing a pattern since the beginning of the week. Strong resistance is seen at the 144.00 and 144.40 levels, the latter of which closely corresponds to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A clean break above those levels might reflect a change in favor of bullish traders, who might send the pair to the psychological 145.00 level. On the negative side, support levels near 143.50, 143.00, and below near 142.70 and 141.60 will be pivotal in deciding whether bearish pressure continues. Oscillator indices indicate mild bearish inclination at the moment, meaning that any rallies will encounter selling interest at resistance levels. FORECAST The short-term USD/JPY outlook indicates cautious upside potential if the pair is able to convincingly break and hold above the important resistance of 144.40. A move up could be bullish, prompting traders to drive the pair towards the next psychological hurdle at 145.00. The scenario would be supported by firm US economic numbers or increased risk appetite, maybe fueling additional USD strength versus the Yen. In contrast, if USD/JPY is unable to break resistance and instead drops below support levels around 143.50 and 143.00, the pair may encounter fresh selling pressure. An extended drop below 142.70 may intensify the downtrend, exposing lower support areas around 142.10 and 141.60. This bearish scenario would be driven by poorer US data, rising risk aversion, or rising bets for a more dovish Federal Reserve, which would favor the lower-yielding Yen.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weakens on BoJ’s Dovish Forecast, Traders Look to Governor Ueda’s Remarks for Rate-Hike Hints in the Future

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  • May 1, 2025
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Japanese Yen has continued to fall for the third straight day, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and cut its inflation and growth projections. The BoJ’s conservative attitude, in anticipation of US tariffs and a potential de-escalation of US-China trade tensions, has prompted the weakening of the Yen. Investors are now turning to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s next words for clues on the direction of interest rates ahead, with hopes that the BoJ will lift rates in 2025. Even so, wider market forces, such as softening US economic numbers and even potential Federal Reserve rate cuts down the road, indicate the Yen can hold some support in the near term, with traders keeping close watch on key technical levels for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market participants are eagerly looking forward to the remarks of BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take cues on future possible rate increases and the central bank’s views on inflation and economic growth, which will decide the direction of the Yen. •  The recent US GDP decline and soft ADP employment numbers are sparking fears of a possible US recession, which can impact the monetary policy of the Fed and the USD/JPY pair. • US-China trade talks developments, or any potential easing, have the potential to meaningfully affect sentiment in markets, with potential to influence the safe-haven demand of the Yen. • The USD/JPY currency pair is making a move toward a critical resistance point at 144.00. A breakout here could trigger more gains, or a drop below 142.60 might bring momentum back into the hands of Yen bulls. Japanese Yen is under sustained pressure after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.5% and reduced its growth and inflation projections, indicating a more dovish stance. Market participants are now looking to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s next comments to gauge the central bank’s future rate-hike path, with some speculating that rates could increase in 2025 as inflation slowly accelerates. Meanwhile, softer US economic news, such as a decline in GDP and less-than-anticipated private-sector job growth, may induce a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, potentially favoring the Yen. In the meantime, global risk sentiment, such as any US-China trade talks news, will be important in determining near-term direction for the Yen. Important technical levels for the USD/JPY pair are also in the spotlight, with resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.60 guiding the next possible directions. The Japanese Yen remains soft in the wake of BoJ’s dovish bias, with the market anticipating Governor Ueda’s words for clues on upcoming rate hikes. Downward revisions in US economic data and global trade news bring added uncertainty, with major technical levels for USD/JPY still firmly in the market’s sights for possible action. • The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% and reduced its growth and inflation projections, indicating a conservative stance. • Market participants are looking for clues from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on future rate hikes, with speculation of a rate hike in 2025. • US GDP fell in Q1 2025, and private-sector employment figures were lower than expected, sparking fears of a recession. • Expectations of Fed rate reductions later in the year by the markets may pressure the US Dollar, propping up the lower-yielding Yen. • Any news in US-China trade negotiations, especially de-escalation, may impact risk sentiment and trigger demand for the Yen as a safe-haven currency. • Important resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.60 are key levels for the USD/JPY pair, dictating future possible price movements. • The BoJ’s projection of inflation at around 2% over the period 2027 implies Japan’s economic situation is going to have a major influence on future monetary policy. The Japanese Yen has been under stress after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) announcement to maintain its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% alongside reducing its forecast for economic growth and inflation. This action mirrors the BoJ’s conservative perspective under the cloud of global trade tensions, especially with the US. The central bank has stated that it will also keep economic conditions under close observation, though while lowering its near-term inflation estimates, it maintained that it expected inflation to stick around its 2% goal in the medium term. Market focus now shifts to remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who should also offer clarity regarding the way ahead for interest rates. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Deteriorating US economic fundamentals, also comprising a negative print in GDP along with muted-than-forecast private sector employment, accompany weakening Yen. These events have fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in the near term, potentially supporting the Yen as a lower-yielding currency. Furthermore, continued uncertainties surrounding global trade, especially US-China relations, can have profound effects on market sentiment and the Yen as a safe-haven asset. With these dynamics changing, investors will be keeping a close eye on any commentary from central banks and major economic indicators that could impact the path of the Yen over the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is probing important resistance points, and the 144.00 level has become an important stumbling block. A move above the level would indicate more bullish pressure, which could propel the pair into higher resistance areas. On the negative, the 142.60-142.65 region is regarded as key support, and a break below this region could spark a turnaround, moving the pair downward. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is also acting as support, while the general market sentiment, guided by the BoJ’s dovish policy and US economic releases, will probably drive the next significant moves. The sellers will be keeping a close eye on these technical levels in order to decide the direction of the pair in the near future. FORECAST USD/JPY pair crosses above the 144.00 resistance level, it may create further upside momentum, with the next important target in the vicinity of the 144.60-144.65 zone. This will indicate a continuation of the current bullish

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Dovish Before BoJ Speech Despite Weaker Domestic Figures and USD Recuperation

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  • March 19, 2025
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The Japanese Yen continues to dip after the Bank of Japan announced that it maintained interest rates levels and weaker than anticipated domestic economic data, which include weak machinery orders and unfavorable business sentiment. Although Japan’s trade balance showed improvement and wage growth prospects remain strong, investors remain cautious ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech for clues on future monetary policy moves. Meanwhile, a modest recovery in the US Dollar from a multi-month low has pushed USD/JPY above mid-149.00s, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. Yet, market players wait for significant cues from the BoJ as well as the next FOMC meeting before taking bold directional wagers. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players wait for Ueda’s words for definite indications of future rate hikes and the central bank’s policy direction in the near future. • The 150.00 psychological level continues to be a crucial resistance; a consistent breakout would set off new bullish momentum towards 150.75–151.00 levels. • Deteriorating machinery orders and weakening business sentiment remain in focus for JPY, while trade balance has improved and wages have firmed up. • Attention turns towards the US Federal Reserve policy move, which could have a bearing on USD strength and overall USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen also remains on the weaker side as markets absorb the Bank of Japan’s move to leave interest rates unchanged and lower-than-anticipated domestic data such as disappointing machinery orders and falling business sentiment. Although a tighter trade balance and improving wage deals provide some respite to Japan’s economic prospects, investor sentiment continues to be risk-off ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech, where he is set to give a clue on when rate hikes can be expected. On the other hand, a slight rally in the US Dollar has driven USD/JPY past mid-149.00s, and technical readings are indicating possible additional upside if the pair successfully crosses the 150.00 resistance mark. All eyes now focus on the result of the FOMC meeting, which will potentially mold the path for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen continues to be weak in the face of weak domestic data and the BoJ’s continued rate stance. Now, the markets are waiting for Governor Ueda’s speech and the FOMC result for more direction. A breach above the level of 150.00 may ignite fresh upside in USD/JPY. • The Japanese Yen stays low following the Bank of Japan maintaining its interest rate unchanged at its latest policy meeting. • Sluggish domestic data, such as declining machinery orders and declining business sentiment, weighed on the JPY. • Japan’s trade balance turned positive, driven by robust exports and lower imports. • USD/JPY pushed beyond mid-149.00s on the back of a modest rebound in the US Dollar from a multi-month low. • The resistance in the USD/JPY technicals stands at 150.00, and a clear breakout would encourage additional upside into the 150.75–151.00 zone. • Highly expected are comments from BoJ Governor Ueda for a pointer towards additional interest rate hike cycles and a monetary policy cue. • Markets eagerly await the outcome of the FOMC meeting, as this will drive the next decision in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen is still under pressure after the Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate target unchanged. The action was taken as concerns over Japan’s economic prospects have been increasing, with recent figures indicating a fall in machinery orders and a decline in business sentiment among manufacturers. While the trade balance of the country improved as exports grew and imports decreased, these encouraging trends were dampened by general economic uncertainty. The central bank also admitted that economic growth and inflation risks are still high, making investors hesitant to anticipate the timing of any subsequent policy changes. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, focus turns to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech later this week, set to provide perspective on the direction of future bank policy. Other investors are paying close attention as well to what comes out of the two-day FOMC meeting in America, which would have implications on global financial markets and overall currency trends. In contrast to domestic woes, the news from Japan’s quarterly spring labor talks came as a welcome relief, with companies consenting to healthy wage increases for the third year in a row — something that could aid consumer consumption and push inflation higher in the months ahead incrementally. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has evidenced renewed vigor after rebounding above the mid-149.00s, reflecting buying bias. The latest price action indicates that the buyers are taking over, particularly after a breakout above the important moving averages on the short-term charts. Nevertheless, the pair has a significant resistance level around the 150.00 psychological level, and a break above this level could lead to further upside. To the disadvantage, instant support exists in the proximity of 149.20–149.00, and breaking below that zone can reflect on the impending stall or change of trend to the current uptrend. Buyers and sellers are set to keep close watch at these levels in awaiting verification of the upcoming trend direction. FORECAST As long as the general market mood continues to lean toward the US Dollar and BoJ plays defensive, USD/JPY will quietly drift upward. A clean penetration above the all-important 150.00 psychological level would lay the groundwork for additional gains, with the possible target being in the 150.75–151.00 area in the short term. Upside momentum could be supported by solid US economic fundamentals and any hawkish undertones in the FOMC meeting. Additionally, positive wage growth in Japan could have inflationary ramifications, but with no policy changes indicated by the BoJ, the Yen would find it challenging to regain resilience. Alternatively, if BoJ Governor Ueda signals a tighter outlook or in case of any disappointing US economic data, USD/JPY may be on the downside. A breakout below the 149.00 level may mark a reversal of recent trend and send the currency back into correction. Additive weakness may see the pair decline towards the 148.20–148.00 region, and if mood turns sharply risk-averse,

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Bulls Reign Supreme as BoJ Tightening Bets Pile Up and USD Falters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar, fueled by rising bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and decreasing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. Latest statistics revealing sustained inflation and robust wage increases in Japan has reaffirmed prospects of sustained BoJ policy firming, sending Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. Conversely, the US Dollar is weakening with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to reduce interest rates later this year after weaker-than-anticipated job market data. Also, geopolitical risks and renewed US trade policy concerns are increasing the safe-haven demand for the Yen, keeping the USD/JPY currency pair bearish. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market expects additional BoJ tightening due to ongoing inflation and wage growth, underpinning Japanese Yen strength versus the US Dollar. • Constricting interest rate differential continues to favor the lower-yielding Yen, putting additional downside pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. • Sluggish US employment data and economic worries support multi-Fed rate cut expectations, further undermining the Dollar outlook. • Increasing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty boost investor demand for the Yen as a haven currency. The Japanese Yen continues to be on a solid ground as markets increasingly factor in additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to increasing wage growth and lingering inflation in the local economy. This has seen the yields of Japanese government bonds shoot up, even further reducing the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. In the meantime, the US Dollar falters under increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will launch a rate-cutting cycle after weak labor market data. Contributing to the Yen’s attractiveness is its safe-haven status, which gathers strength in the face of global trade uncertainty and economic worries over US trade policy. These factors combined continue to bear down on the USD/JPY pair, pointing to further downside momentum in the near term. The Japanese Yen remains firm on increasing hopes of BoJ rate hikes and declining US-Japan yield differentials. Poor US economic data and safe-haven buying further dampen the USD/JPY pair. • Rising inflation and robust wage growth enhance the prospects of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. • Japanese government bond yields jumped to 2009 highs, aiding Yen appreciation. • The US-Japan interest rate spread is still decreasing in favor of the Japanese Yen compared to the US Dollar. • Current US jobs data and economic reports increase anticipation of several Fed rate cuts in the current year. • Global uncertainties and trade tensions boost the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • USD/JPY continues to be bearish, with support at around 146.00 and room for further downward movement towards 145.00. The Japanese Yen is still strengthening as hopes rise for additional interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Robust wage growth and ongoing inflation in Japan have supported the view that the central bank will further tighten its monetary policy. This follows a rise in government bond yields and a significant shift in Japan’s economic landscape, where labor unions are demanding substantial wage hikes. The overall mood indicates increasing optimism over Japan’s economic strength and the BoJ’s willingness to intervene against inflationary pressures. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the US Dollar is in a bearish mood as a result of less-than-anticipated employment figures and increasing fears about the US economic outlook. Market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates ahead of schedule, further eroding the Dollar’s attractiveness. Also, doubts regarding US trade policy and global economic threats continue to fuel the safe-haven appetite for the Japanese Yen. Such divergence in Japan-US central bank policies and attitudes towards the economy continues to remain a major impetus in tightening the Yen’s grip in world markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair presents a bearish picture as it continues to hover below major resistance levels, signifying downward movement. A persistent dip below the 147.00 level can validate further weakening, with the support areas of 146.50 and 146.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels, implying that while the pair might witness some short-term correction or minor pullback, the overall trend will be bearish. Overall, the technical configuration is in favor of sellers, with any bounce likely to meet stiff resistance around 148.00 to 148.70 levels. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 147.00 mark and increases its bullish strength, it could try to undergo a short-term bounce-back. Under such circumstances, the initial resistance would most probably be encountered at the 148.00 level, followed by a stronger resistance near the 148.65–148.70 area. A prolonged passage above this area could initiate further upward momentum towards the psychological 149.00 level. If positive sentiment intensifies, the pair could even rise towards the 149.80–150.00 level, where major supply could restrict further advancements. Conversely, if the pair breaks and holds below 147.00, it may validate additional bearish pressure. The subsequent pivotal support is at 146.50, and a strong break below here would trigger the way for a deeper fall towards 146.00. Further selling momentum can see the pair probe the 145.25–145.00 region, before further support in the vicinity of the 144.80–144.75 region. The overall technical perspective is one of vulnerability for further downside price action, and only strong bullish drivers would help turn the outlook in favor of the pair.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Reaches More Than Two-Month High Versus USD on BoJ Rate Hike Speculation and Global Risk Aversion

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has reached a more than two-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as escalating speculation of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes pushes Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to record-high levels. This narrowing differential rate enhances the Yen’s attractiveness, again fueled by worldwide risk aversion after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs. Even with the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bias, the USD cannot find footing, with investors watching for key support levels around the 150.00 psychological level for USD/JPY. If the bearish pressure persists, the pair may dip further, with resistance around 151.00-152.65 potentially capping any attempts at an upside. Market players now look to US economic data and Fed rhetoric for guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher bets on more BoJ rate hikes drive Japanese government bond yields up, bolstering the Yen and reducing the rate spread. • Investor morale deteriorates as US President Donald Trump hints at fresh tariffs, triggering global risk aversion and increasing demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 psychological level, with a possible downside extension to 149.00 should bearish momentum continue. • Even with a hawkish Fed, the US Dollar fails to make headway, with future economic data and FOMC speeches likely to guide market direction. The Japanese Yen maintains its bullish run on increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and spiking Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate gap bolsters the Yen, and the global risk aversion, which is fueled by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs, adds to safe-haven demand. The US Dollar is still unable to attract buyers, despite the hawkish tone set by the Federal Reserve, and keeps USD/JPY trading below the 150.00 psychological level. Traders now look for major support levels, Fed policy indications, and future US economic data to drive the pair. The Japanese Yen rises as increased BoJ rate hike hopes and jumping JGB yields lift demand. Risk aversion is driven by Trump’s tariff threats, also helping the Yen. The US Dollar, however, lags in spite of the Fed’s hawkishness, leaving USD/JPY close to the pivotal 150.00 mark.  • Increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes drive Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to their highest level in more than a decade. • The Japanese Yen jumps to a two-month high versus the US Dollar as the declining rate differential enhances its attractiveness. • US President Donald Trump’s proposals for fresh tariffs induce global risk aversion, and demand for the safe-haven Yen rises. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 level, with additional downside potential towards 149.00 if bearish momentum persists. • In spite of the Federal Reserve’s conservative sentiment and inflationary worries, the US Dollar has a hard time gaining momentum versus the rising Yen. • Japan’s Trade Minister is set to discuss tariff exclusions with the US, something that may have implications on trade and currency trends. • Market participants look for significant US economic indicators, such as jobless claims and Fed speeches, to provide additional guidance on the USD/JPY currency pair. The Japanese Yen is still firming as hopes rise that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. Increased Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are a sign of the central bank moving away from its extremely loose monetary stance, and this makes the Yen more appealing to investors. Further, the latest economic news, such as Japan’s better-than-expected Q4 GDP, back up the argument that the Japanese economy is healthy enough to digest a rise in interest rates. Such a move in monetary policy is regarded as being a pivotal decision for Japan while it faces the challenges of economic recovery and taming inflation. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, geopolitics and trade tensions contribute to the attractiveness of the Yen as a safe-haven currency. US President Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding new tariffs have disturbed world markets, and investors have turned to more secure assets such as the Yen for stability. Japan’s Trade Minister is also scheduled to discuss possible exemptions from the tariffs, underlining the current trade tensions. In contrast, while taking into consideration the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance with regards to next rate decisions, the US Dollar has not significantly appreciated, as market players still await forthcoming economic data and policy updates from the two nations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair flirts with key 150.00 psychological benchmark, with speculative traders closely looking at key supports and resistances. A clean break below 150.00 would further boost bearish momentum, driving the pair to the 149.60-149.55 area and then down to 149.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, reflecting persistent selling pressure without yet showing signs of being oversold. On the upside, the 150.90-151.00 area now serves as a first resistance level, with any break above likely to initiate a short-covering rally to 151.40. Additional gains may encounter selling interest near the 152.00 level, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.65 is an important pivot point for short-term traders. FORECAST If the USD/JPY pair can hold above the 150.90-151.00 resistance area, it may cause a short-term rebound. Breaking above the level could prompt buyers to take the pair towards the next important barrier at 151.40. Above this, additional upside may be challenged in the vicinity of the 152.00 psychological level, where selling pressure would be expected. But if bullish momentum persists, the level of 152.65, coinciding with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), will be an important level to monitor. A firm break above this would potentially set the stage for additional gains, drawing buyers into higher resistance areas. On the negative side, persistent bear momentum would lead USD/JPY to break below the pivotal 150.00 psychological support. A clean break below this level might boost the selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the subsequent support area of 149.60-149.55. If this level is also breached, the downtrend might continue towards the 149.00 level, followed

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Resilience Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs and BoJ Rate Hike Bets

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  • February 3, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) staged a bit of resilience against the US Dollar (USD), pulling out from its multi-day low even as fears continue to simmer on US President Trump’s proposed trade tariffs. While the widening US-Japan rate differential and global risk-off sentiment weigh on the Yen, bets for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and rising inflation in Tokyo provide some support. However, fears about the economic fallout from new tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, coupled with broad USD strength, continue to limit the Yen’s potential. The BoJ’s ongoing discussions about tightening monetary policy and the narrowing interest rate gap with other economies play a pivotal role in the Yen’s recovery, but its future remains tied to upcoming US macroeconomic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Bank of Japan’s potential interest rate hikes could provide crucial support to the Japanese Yen amidst global uncertainties. • New trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada, Mexico, and China could weigh on global markets, making the JPY vulnerable to economic spillover. • The continued convergence in interest rates between the United States and Japan continues to have a smoothing effect on the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair. • The global risk-off sentiment, induced by geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainty, may further enhance the safe-haven status of the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been experiencing mixed pressures lately in trading. The potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) offer some support, but global uncertainty is still present. The narrowing US-Japan yield differential keeps the USD/JPY pair in check, but the Yen remains vulnerable to concerns about the economic impact of US President Trump’s trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. With stronger US Dollar tariffs added to that mix, it will continue weighing down on the Yen’s bullish moment. Yet the safe haven status of JPY is still in place given global risk-off, and more specifically, some data from the United States economy would be seen such as Nonfarm Payrolls for further guidance to the currency pair. The Japanese Yen is supported by Bank of Japan rate hike bets and safe-haven demand amidst global uncertainty, though concerns over US trade tariffs and a strong US Dollar cap its upside potential. Key US economic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls report, will likely influence future price action for USD/JPY. • The Bank of Japan’s discussions on further rate hikes provide some support to the Yen despite global challenges. • Added pressure from Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China limits Yen’s bullish side. • Continuation of the broad-based USD strength continues weighing on the Yen and supports the positive bias on USD/JPY. • Geopolitical and economic risks globally are spurring a risk-off mood; this is seen in the enhanced demand for the Yen as a safe haven currency. • Japan and US have an interest rate differential that helps cap the upside of the pair USD/JPY. • Inflation is rising in Tokyo, and expectations for a hike in BoJ policy support it. The pressure on the Yen has been alleviated a little. • For the next decision in USD/JPY, the upcoming US economic reports are very important, especially Nonfarm Payrolls. The Japanese Yen is facing support and pressure due to various reasons, both at the global level and domestically, in the Forex market. Another hand that perhaps because of increasing inflation in the Tokyo region, the Bank of Japan may increase interest rates. Safe-haven demand amidst global uncertainty also acted as a minor recovery catalyst for the Yen against the US Dollar. However, the imposition of new trade tariffs by US President Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China is continuing to weigh on the Yen on fears of further deleterious impact on the global economy, pushing up the economic instability and curbing gains in the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The interest rate differential continues to narrow between Japan and the US as the former has kept the policy rate at zero, limiting the upside of USD/JPY. Although the US Dollar is generally strong, the Yen finds some refuge in its status as a safe haven and bears the risk-off sentiment. While attention in the markets focuses on major US economic releases-the most impactful perhaps will be the Nonfarm Payrolls-the direction of the USD/JPY pair will largely be guided by whether the US economy remains resilient or if global trade tensions mount further pressure on risk assets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis is a methodology applied in forex and other financial markets to determine the future course of price movement by studying the historical data primarily through charts and technical indicators. The traders try to find potential entry and exit points by concentrating on patterns, trends, and market signals like support and resistance levels, moving averages, and candlestick formations. Unlike fundamental analysis, which focuses on economic data, technical analysis considers that all the information is incorporated into the price, making it a very powerful tool for the short-term trading strategy. Therefore, by noticing recurring price patterns and trends, traders can be better informed about their decisions as well as handle risk better. FORECAST Japanese Yen will see some near-term upswings with expectations of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Tokyo’s inflation increased at its fastest pace in almost a year. In this light, the BoJ may also look to continue the tightening of monetary policy and is likely to continue supporting the Yen. In any case, safe-haven demand for the Yen is also unlikely to lose any steam with heightened global geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment. If there is further weakness in the US Dollar such as losing significant strength within disappointing US economic data, or trade tensions rise higher, the Yen might appreciate further. That would put pressure on the USD/JPY pair from its upper side, mainly when and if it breaks the important support levels. In contrast, the Yen

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen’s Tug of War: BoJ Rate Hike Bets vs. USD Strength Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

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  • January 31, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish camps, as expectations of more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) clash with the strength of the US Dollar (USD). Latest statistics showing increasing inflation and strong industrial production in Japan will also give further justification to further monetary tightening, which makes the Yen resistant. However, geopolitical tensions are still in the limelight: rising tensions at the Sea of Japan and continued US trade policy uncertainties, making market sentiment very fragile. Low price action for the USD and anticipation of the US PCE Price Index report will cap further gains in the USD/JPY pair. While technical indicators suggest downside risks toward the 153.00 level, a breakout above the 155.00 mark could trigger a short-covering rally, potentially shifting the near-term bias in favor of the bulls. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising Tokyo CPI and robust economic data fuel expectations of further BoJ tightening, supporting the Yen against excessive depreciation. • Russian military activity near Japan and uncertainties in US trade policies could raise safe-haven demand for the JPY, influencing its short-term movement. • Watch out for this preferred inflation gauge of the Fed, as it may dictate further strength in USD strength and next move in USD/JPY. • A break below 153.00 could confirm further downside, and sustained strength above 155.00 might encourage a bullish breakout in USD/JPY. The trajectory of the Japanese Yen continues to be shaped by a mix of domestic economic indicators, global geopolitical developments, and US monetary policy expectations. The strength in Tokyo CPI and robust industrial growth enhance the probability of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes, which should continue to underpin the JPY. Geopolitical risks, however, such as Russian military activities near Japan and trade tensions between the US, add layers of uncertainty, potentially boosting safe-haven demand. All eyes are on the US PCE Price Index, which is an important indicator for Federal Reserve policy direction, and may influence USD strength and subsequently USD/JPY movements. From a technical perspective, a breakdown below 153.00 could trigger further losses for the pair, while sustained momentum above the 155.00 level may fuel a bullish rally. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure despite expectations of further BoJ rate hikes, supported by rising inflation and strong economic data. Geopolitical tensions and US trade policies add uncertainty, while the upcoming US PCE inflation data could influence USD/JPY movements. A break below 153.00 may signal further downside, while sustained gains above 155.00 could trigger a bullish rally. • Higher Tokyo CPI and robust industrial growth feed into speculation that the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy, supporting the Yen. • Russian military move closer to Japan and US trade policies introduce uncertainty which could increase safe havens for JPY. • The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure remains in focus for its effects on USD strength and the movement of USD/JPY. • The latest US GDP data showed a decline in growth, which may influence Fed policy and overall market sentiment. • A drop below 153.00 could signal further losses, while a sustained move above 155.00 may trigger a bullish breakout. • US President Donald Trump’s threats of higher tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and BRICS nations could impact global markets and JPY’s safe-haven appeal. • Higher Treasury yields, which are fueled by inflation fears, are supportive for the USD. Expectations for Fed policy are critical going forward for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen remains trapped in a gossamer balance between BoJ rate hike expectations and greater global economic forces. Recent data show a rise in Tokyo’s CPI and strong industrial production, hinting that the central bank of Japan will be on its course toward policy normalization. This boosts the Yen from excessive depreciation. However, there are geopolitical risks, such as Russian military activities near Japan, and trade tensions between the US and other nations, which leave market sentiment unsure. US President Donald Trump’s warnings of a potential hike in tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and BRICS could trigger volatility in the markets. The latter is likely to raise safe haven demand for JPY. USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA However, attention now turns to US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index that can be taken as the preferred measure of inflation at the Fed’s end and influence the USD strength. A stronger-than-expected reading should reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative, sending USD/JPY higher, and a softer reading should cap upside for the Dollar. Another issue is that the US economy also slowed in Q4, thus economic momentum-related concerns should begin to factor in market expectations as well. On the technical side, levels to watch are support near 153.00, where a collapse could speed losses, and resistance at 155.00, where a sustained move above could trigger a bullish breakout. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY now stands at a critical juncture that depicts both key support and resistance in dictating its next move. A protracted break below 153.00 could accelerate selling, which in turn would likely send the currency pair lower again to the range of 152.40 to 152.00. From there, possible support is a 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If on the other hand, USD/JPY breaks above the strong resistance of 154.50 and through 155.00 psychological, which is considered quite a big milestone, it is likely to unlock a bullish run. Further upside may drive the pair towards 155.40-155.45, with a further extension to 156.00 and the weekly high of 156.25. Oscillators on the daily chart are gaining negative traction but remain outside the oversold zone, which suggests room for further correction unless strong buying momentum emerges. FORECAST USD/JPY remains intact if the pair manages to sustain above the 154.50 level, with the next major hurdle being the 155.00 psychological mark. A decisive breakout above this level may trigger fresh impetus for bulls, to attain further gains towards 155.40-155.45. Further buying pressure may take the pair up to about 156.00 and even attack the 156.25 weekly high. Freshly built strength of the

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Catches a Hold, Holding Steady Despite Hawkish BoJ Expectations and Tariff Concerns: Key Levels to Watch

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  • January 28, 2025
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The Japanese Yen has been failing near a daily low against the US Dollar. In early European trading, the USD/JPY pair reaches close to 156.00. Hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan help keep losses to JPY to some extent due to potential policy tightening and pay hikes support. Meanwhile, renewed US President Donald Trump tariff threats on the varied industries with US Treasury yields rebounding strengthen USD, and JPY is weakly positioned compared with the lower yielding ones. Markets look for guidance with the incoming US macro data along with two days of the FOMC Federal Reserve meet scheduled. USD/JPY charts are technically biased southward and, hence, this pair faces critical resistance in 156.00 and immediate support nearby 155.00. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, including continued rate hikes and policy adjustments, could be supportive of the Japanese Yen and limit its losses against the US Dollar. • Proposed tariffs by President Trump on key industries, including pharmaceuticals and metals, are likely to raise market volatility and impact USD/JPY movements through their influence on inflation and bond yields. • The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions during its two-day meeting will play a critical role in shaping the USD’s trajectory and the overall direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Key resistance around 156.00 and support near 155.00 will guide traders, with a break below 154.50 signaling potential further downside for the USD/JPY pair. The USD/JPY pair remains under focus as the Japanese Yen struggles near daily lows amid diverging monetary policies and global economic uncertainties. Hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan, including potential rate hikes and policy adjustments, help limit JPY losses despite modest USD strength fueled by rebounding US Treasury yields and President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on various industries. Market participants are eyeing key technical levels, with resistance around 156.00 and support near 155.00, while awaiting critical US macroeconomic data and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. These factors will likely determine the pair’s next directional move in the coming sessions. The USD/JPY pair hovers near daily lows as rebounding US Treasury yields and Trump’s tariff threats continue to bolster the USD, and hawkish BoJ expectations limit JPY losses. Market participants will watch for further cues from the outcome of the FOMC meeting. • Japanese Yen fails against US Dollar; pairs are seen nearing 156.00 on back of rebounding US Treasury yields and tariff threats by Trump. • This kind of sign by the Bank of Japan, including rate hikes and fostering wage growth, caps losses for JPY. • Fresh tariff threats by President Trump on pharmaceuticals and metals increase volatility in the market and make USD rise. • Traders are most likely to wait for cues from the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve to see what happens with USD and the overall market. • Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index will shed some light on US economic outlook • Resistance levels are located near 156.00, with the immediate support levels around 155.00 and a break below 154.50 would push the pair towards further losses • The pair is still under pressure due to differences in policy directions between BoJ and Fed along with global uncertainty. The USD/JPY pair remains close to daily lows. The Japanese currency is under considerable pressure against the greenback due to diverging monetary policies and surging global economic uncertainties. Positive support for the Yen comes through the hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan, which implies rate hikes or policy adjustments. However, the US Dollar holds firm as the Treasury yields begin to rebound and President Trump’s threat to impose fresh tariffs on pharmaceuticals and metals may reactivate inflationary forces. Traders are following these reports closely as they create market sentiment and push volatility for the currency pair USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Focus, meanwhile, would be on crucial US macro data, which is a mix of Durable Goods Orders, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Together, they may give clues as to the prospects of the US economy. This will also help determine the trend of the dollar as the Fed concludes its two-day FOMC meeting. On the technical side, resistance for USD/JPY is observed at 156.00, and immediate support is located around 155.00. A strong break below 154.50 would likely mean a continuation of the downside pressure, keeping traders alert for any directional guidance in the following sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is trading within a critical range. Resistance is located near the 156.00 level, which is also aligned with the trend-channel support breakpoint now turned into resistance. The next zone in concert with the supply from 156.60 to 156.70 might cap further movements upwards. Psychologically speaking, the zone between 155.00 on the downside should work as support with the next horizon zone situated from 154.55 down to 154.50, along with the zone for 154.00. Continued breakdown through such levels will definitely reinforce the view of further falling and bring further declines into 153.70 and beyond and potentially 153.30 and perhaps 153.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are showing negative traction and suggesting that USD/JPY’s path of least resistance in the short term could be lower. FORECAST The pair might have only limited upside to it as it gets close to some key resistances near 156.00 and the supply zone at 156.60-156.70. Drivers to the upside will include rebounding US Treasury yields and continued US Dollar strength, with President Trump’s tariff policies and inflationary pressures being the biggest culprits. Strong US economic data or a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve in the FOMC meeting also could fuel additional demand for USD, pushing the pair higher. However, these gains will likely be capped by the divergent policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The USD/JPY pair faces immediate support near the 155.00 psychological level, followed by critical zones at 154.55-154.50 and the 154.00 mark. A break below these

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen on Edge: BoJ Policy Speculation Balances Risk-On Sentiment and Limited Downside

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  • January 22, 2025
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USD/JPY is on its edge as divergence in policy speculations between Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) outweighs the modest losing downside. Still, the interest rate hike for the BoJ in its meeting next week leaves a stark divergence from the probability of Fed lowering interest rates into the latter end of this year, which somewhat caps the serious losses for JPY. The USD/JPY pair continues to show resilience, holding below the key psychological mark of 155.00, amid a broader risk-on sentiment reflected in positive equity markets. Traders are treading cautiously, awaiting clarity from the BoJ’s policy decision, which will likely shape the near-term trajectory of the JPY. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest limited bearish momentum, with spot prices poised to test immediate resistance near 156.00 or potentially climb toward multi-month highs if buying pressure sustains. KEY LOOKOUTS • Anticipated BoJ rate hikes and Fed rate cuts fuel contrasting market expectations, influencing the USD/JPY pair’s movement and limiting the Japanese Yen’s downside. • USD/JPY traded in a stable manner below 155.00, and with oscillators demonstrating weak bearish traction, there is a rather cautious mood for traders as the market waits for some clear technical breaks. • Upbeat equity markets have also negatively impacted the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status, thereby allowing tailwinds for the pair’s recovery to key resistance. • Traders are awaiting the much-awaited BoJ policy meet, with the outcome to heavily influence near-term Japanese Yen dynamics. The Japanese Yen remains subdued as traders navigate the contrasting policy outlooks of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). With the BoJ expected to hike interest rates in its upcoming meeting and the Fed anticipated to cut rates later this year, the policy divergence adds uncertainty to the USD/JPY pair’s trajectory. Positive sentiment in equity markets further undermines the Yen’s safe-haven appeal, supporting a modest recovery in the pair. However, traders remain cautious, awaiting the BoJ’s decision, which will significantly impact near-term movement. On the technical front, the USD/JPY shows resilience below the 155.00 psychological mark, while oscillators signal limited bearish momentum, suggesting a measured approach to the pair’s next moves. The Japanese Yen is still under pressure as the BoJ and Fed policy expectations are contrasting, with the BoJ’s expected rate hike supporting it. Risk-on sentiment undermines the Yen, and traders await the BoJ’s decision for clearer direction. • The anticipation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan supports the Japanese Yen and limits its downside potential. • Divergent expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year create a contrasting dynamic influencing the USD/JPY pair. • Positive equity market trends weaken the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen, supporting modest gains in USD/JPY. • USD/JPY holds firm below the 155.00 mark, with oscillators showing limited bearish momentum, signaling cautious market sentiment. • Key resistance for USD/JPY lies at the 156.00 mark, with potential for further gains toward multi-month highs if buying pressure sustains. • Market participants remain on the sidelines, awaiting the BoJ’s policy decision to determine the near-term trajectory of the Yen. • The outcome of the BoJ’s two-day meeting is expected to be pivotal, potentially reshaping market sentiment and influencing JPY movements. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as markets navigate contrasting policy expectations between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). As widely expected, a rate hike is in store during the BoJ’s two-day policy meeting. Still, later in the year, the Fed could cut interest rates, providing an opposing outlook for the JPY’s downside. This contrast along with broader risk-on equity market sentiment goes against the safe haven appeal of the Yen and hence modestly supports the USD/JPY. However, traders remain cautious, awaiting the BoJ’s decision, which could play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term trajectory of the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView Prepared By ELLYANA USD/JPY pair has shown resilience, holding steady below the psychological 155.00 mark despite bearish pressure. Oscillators on the daily chart indicate limited negative momentum, suggesting that a sustained break below key support levels is necessary for further depreciation. Immediate resistance lies near the 156.00 level, with potential for gains toward multi-month highs if buying pressure continues. The outcome of the BoJ’s policy decision will be critical in determining whether the pair accelerates higher or reverses course toward key support levels. As traders adopt a wait-and-watch approach, the Japanese Yen’s movement remains highly sensitive to policy signals and market sentiment shifts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is showing some strength as it is still holding below the psychological level of 155.00 and at the bottom side of a long-term ascending channel. Indicators on the day chart indicate that there is not sufficient bearish momentum for a big decline, meaning a major drop would need a good breakdown and persistent trade below the support of the trend-channel. Some support could be met around 154.50-154.45 and further declines could reach as low as 154.00 round figure and the mid-153.00s. On the upside, the 156.00 level acts as a strong resistance, followed by the 156.25-156.60 range. A breakout above these levels could pave the way for further gains toward the 157.00 mark and beyond, with the multi-month peak near 159.00 serving as a longer-term target. The overall setup suggests cautious optimism for bullish traders while urging bears to wait for clearer signals of sustained weakness. FORECAST The USD/JPY pair holds potential for further gains if buying pressure sustains above key resistance levels. The immediate hurdle lies near the 156.00 mark, followed by the 156.25-156.60 region. A breakout above these levels could trigger a rally toward the 157.00 psychological mark. If bullish momentum strengthens, the pair may test the 157.25-157.30 zone and extend gains to the 157.60 level, eventually targeting the multi-month peak near the 159.00 mark. Positive sentiment driven by risk-on market conditions and expectations of a dovish Fed could bolster this upward trajectory. Downside risks remain limited as the USD/JPY pair exhibits resilience near the 155.00 mark. A sustained break below this

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Retreats: Key Factors Behind USD/JPY Stability Above Mid-155.00s

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  • January 21, 2025
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The Japanese Yen has retreated from its one-month high against the US Dollar after a modest recovery for the greenback and as positive equity market sentiment weighs on the safe haven currency. Nonetheless, the Japanese Yen’s downward trend seems somewhat capped as speculative anticipation of an increase in Bank of Japan’s interest rate has gained momentum going into the remainder of the week, with an 80% probability priced by the markets. US President Donald Trump’s tariff comments have rekindled inflationary worries and trade war jitters, further adding to global economic uncertainty. On the technical side, the USD/JPY remains firm above the mid-155.00s, with levels playing both supporting and resisting roles as traders wait for the BoJ’s closely watched policy meeting. This development, coupled with macroeconomic signals and geopolitical dynamics, will determine the near-term path of the currency pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are eagerly awaiting the announcement by the Bank of Japan for the rate hike that may go a long way in determining the trend of Japanese Yen and other world currencies. • A moderate USD rebound, fueled by trade-related comments and inflation concerns, will be an important driver to watch for in the direction of the USD/JPY pair. • The area of 155.00 is key support, while resistance is seen near 156.25-157.00, and these levels will help guide traders to potential breakouts or reversals in the USD/JPY pair. • The threat of tariffs from US President Donald Trump against Canada and Mexico could reignite trade tensions, which may affect market sentiment and add volatility to global currency markets. The Japanese Yen has pulled back after hitting a one-month high against the US Dollar, with a combination of factors driving the move, including a modest recovery in the Greenback and improved risk sentiment in equity markets. However, speculation of an imminent Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, fueled by hawkish remarks from BoJ officials and rising inflationary pressure, has limited the JPY’s depreciation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s tariff remarks have revived trade war fears, adding a layer of uncertainty to global markets. Technical analysis suggests resilience in the USD/JPY pair above the 155.00 mark, while traders await the crucial BoJ policy decision and monitor key support and resistance levels to gauge the pair’s next move. The Japanese Yen retreated from a one-month high against the US Dollar as markets anticipate a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff remarks add global trade uncertainty. Technical levels above 155.00 support USD/JPY stability ahead of the BoJ policy meeting. • The Japanese Yen pulled back after reaching a one-month high against the US Dollar amid a modest USD recovery and improved equity market sentiment. • Market places are pricing 80% chance of a hike in Bank of Japan rate amid hawkish comments from officials as also rising inflationary pressure in Japan • US President Donald Trump’s suggestions for placing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico sparked renewed fears of a trade war, and added to uncertainty facing global economic and currency markets. • A modest USD rebound from its two-week trough, driven by inflation concerns and trade policy expectations, was also a tailwind for USD/JPY. • The USD/JPY price remains supported close to the 155.00 mark, where resistance levels from 156.25-157.00 levels are influencing trading dynamics in the short term. • Tuesday’s trade lacked any key economic data from both Japan and the US as market focus stayed on central bank meetings as well as geo-political cues. • This is a crucial two-day BoJ policy meeting that is likely to decide the course of action for the Japanese Yen and world market sentiments. The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreated from its one-month high against the US Dollar (USD), primarily due to the combination of several market dynamics such as modest recovery in the Greenback and positive risk appetite in equity markets. However, the downside for the JPY remains limited due to rising expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, with markets pricing in an 80% probability. Hawkish comments from BoJ officials and increasing inflationary pressure in Japan have strengthened this narrative. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reignited trade war fears, adding volatility to global markets and contributing to a cautious trading environment. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA On the technical front, the USD/JPY pair has displayed resilience above the 155.00 level, with support and resistance levels guiding market participants. Traders look at a resistance area at 156.25-157.00 for upward momentum. A further decline should bring the pair to the vicinity of the 154.50 support area. With scarce economic reports out this week, all the attention goes to a two-day BoJ policy meeting that will take a big toll on the short-term trend of the JPY. This meeting combined with geopolitical factors and changing US monetary policy expectations will most probably be decisive in determining the USD/JPY pair direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair is holding strong around the 155.00 level, which has acted as an important support in a multi-month ascending trend channel. A break below here could take prices lower towards 154.50 intermediate support, possibly to 154.00 and 153.00 psychological support. Conversely, resistance remains around the 156.25 region and last night’s high at 156.60. Break above this latter level might provide a gateway for a run towards 157.00 with the next gain going towards the 157.25-157.30 area and the round figure of 158.00. Traders will look for a decisive breakdown through these levels to confirm the next directional move. FORECAST The USD/JPY currency pair may find a path towards resuming the bullish drive, should it be able to sustain trading above the critical resistance located at 156.25, targeting levels at 156.60 and then reaching the psychological mark of 157.00. Further, breaking out above 157.30 might lead the currency pair towards the 158.00 mark and potentially towards retesting the multi-month high in the 159.00 zone. This rally may be further supported by a stronger

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