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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Stabilises, To Consolidate Between 0.5540 and 0.5760 – UOB Group

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  • April 10, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stabilised against the US Dollar (USD), FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of UOB Group report. After a brief fall to 0.5485, the NZD rallied sharply, ending stronger at 0.5650—a strong intraday gain. This move, particularly the break above the strong resistance level of 0.5650, suggests that the recent downtrend in NZD might have ended. Short term, the NZD/USD pair will test 0.5695, with consolidation expected in the wider range of 0.5540 to 0.5760. KEY LOOKOUTS •  NZD/USD may probe the 0.5695 level in the near term, as long as it remains above minor support at 0.5620 and key support at 0.5580. •  Although upside momentum is increasing, the major resistance level at 0.5760 is unlikely to be tested in the near term. •  The steep reversal and break above 0.5650 signal that recent NZD weakness has most probably stabilised and the outlook has turned from bearish to neutral. •  In the next 1–3 weeks, NZD/USD should consolidate between the 0.5540–0.5760 levels as market sentiment comes back into equilibrium. NZD/USD has turned as recent price action indicates that New Zealand Dollar weakness has stabilized. After dipping to 0.5485, the pair snapped back strongly and cleared the major resistance level at 0.5650, marking the end of the bear trend. The NZD is now expected by UOB Group analysts to range in a clear area of 0.5540 to 0.5760 in the short term. A 0.5695 test is on the cards if the currency remains above 0.5580, though a break through key resistance at 0.5760 is not expected in the short term. The New Zealand Dollar has probably settled versus the US Dollar, with NZD/USD likely to trade in the 0.5540-0.5760 range. A near-term 0.5695 test is on the cards if support at 0.5580 is maintained, though a break above 0.5760 is still not expected just yet. • The recent NZD/USD rebound indicates the earlier weakness is most likely stabilised. • NZD rose from the low point of 0.5485 to close strongly higher at 0.5650, rising 2.07% in a day. • The pair broke above strong resistance point of 0.5650, which is indicative of a change in short-term momentum. • NZD/USD can test 0.5695 if it holds above 0.5580. • Important support points to observe are at 0.5580 and 0.5620. • NZD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 over the next few days and weeks. • In spite of recent strength, the key resistance at 0.5760 is unlikely to be broken in the near future. The New Zealand Dollar seems to have returned to stability following a volatile period, indicating a more stable phase in its performance. This is a welcome relief for traders and market observers who have tracked the currency’s recent fluctuations. Analysts at UOB Group believe that the current market sentiment regarding NZD has moved from bearish to neutral, with indications favoring a consolidation phase instead of sustained volatility. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView This change in tone implies that the wider market will now turn attention to other drivers such as economic data releases, global risk appetite, and central bank commentary. The removal of pressure on the NZD creates room for investors to reconsider their strategy and projections without the initial pressure of wild volatility. On balance, the environment is more neutral, and the currency is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has made a strong recovery after it temporarily touched 0.5485, crossing above the significant resistance level at 0.5650. Such a breakout points to a possible change in momentum, meaning that the recent downtrend is likely over. The pair would now consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760, with weak support at 0.5580 and 0.5620. A short-term test of 0.5695 is conceivable if the levels of support are maintained, but the key resistance of 0.5760 will not be tested unless greater bullish momentum arises. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue to push higher moderately, particularly if it can find support just above 0.5580. The pair would move towards the next target of 0.5695 with the help of better market sentiment and technical support. With sustained buying interest, the higher end of the prevailing consolidation range at 0.5760 could be in view, although it should serve as a robust resistance in the short term. On the flip side, if NZD/USD fails to hold above 0.5580, it might unleash fresh selling pressure. Breaking below this level can drive the pair towards 0.5540, the lower boundary of the anticipated consolidation zone. Although the prior low of 0.5485 holds firm for the time being, any persistent weakness can re-open the way towards the crucial support level at 0.5450, which was recently a key level to monitor.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Sustains Strength With China’s Optimistic Services PMI and RBNZ Leadership Change

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  • March 5, 2025
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NZD/USD sustains strength at about 0.5650 as China’s Services PMI picked up optimistically despite a substantial leadership change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The more-than-anticipated increase in China’s Services PMI to 51.4 indicates healthy economic momentum that can affect the New Zealand Dollar on account of good trade relationships. At the same time, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation introduces uncertainty, as Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby takes over on an acting basis until March 31. On the US side, the Greenback comes under pressure as markets respond to newly imposed tariffs by President Trump and rumors of a policy flip. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at around 105.70 amidst increasing fears regarding economic growth and trade policies. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s Services PMI rise to 51.4 indicates economic strength, which could strengthen the New Zealand Dollar as a result of robust trade relations. • Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is uncertain, where Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will hold position temporarily until March 31, waiting for an interim replacement. • President Trump’s tariff increase on Canada, Mexico, and China is under scrutiny, and there are rumors that he might reverse policies in face of economic uncertainty. • US Dollar Index (DXY) near 105.70 captures market anxiety regarding trade tensions and possible changes in Trump’s tariff policy. NZD/USD is holding firm at 0.5650 following a higher-than-expected China Services PMI and major events at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). China’s PMI increased to 51.4, supporting economic durability and possibly underpinning the New Zealand Dollar because of close trading relationships. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is an added uncertainty, with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby holding the fort until a temporary appointment is made. On the American side, President Trump’s latest tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China are under fire, with talk of him revisiting his policy in light of economic worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady at 105.70, a measure of market jitters over trade tensions and policy changes. NZD/USD remains stable around 0.5650 amid a positive China Services PMI and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation. On the other hand, US tariff concerns drag on the US Dollar. • The pair remains stable around 0.5650 amid positive Chinese economic data and leadership changes at the RBNZ. • The index increased to 51.4 in February, above forecast, and points to economic resilience, which could be supportive of the New Zealand Dollar. • Governor Adrian Orr resigns, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby on an acting basis until March 31. • President Trump’s tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China raise market fears, with talk of policy change reversal. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is traded around 105.70, under pressure from below as trade tensions and fears of economic slowdown weigh. • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggests that Trump is considering revising his tariff position within less than 48 hours of imposition. • Economic statistics and trade policy from China, New Zealand, and the US continue to drive market movement and currency performance. NZD/USD stays stable as events on the global economic and political front continue. China’s Services PMI unexpectedly climbed to 51.4, indicating a stronger economy, which is important to New Zealand given their robust trade relationship. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also changing leadership, as Governor Adrian Orr has resigned. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby has taken over as acting governor until March 31, and this brings with it an element of transition within the nation’s financial leadership. Though these elements have contributed to confidence in the market, there are still doubts on how new leadership will influence monetary policies in the future. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Internationally, the US is increasingly plagued by concerns with its recent tariffs. President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has raised questions over possible economic impacts. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the administration could revisit the tariffs, but reports say Trump is keen to keep them in place. This constant uncertainty over trade policies may affect global markets and investor sentiment as companies and governments weigh the long-term effects of these actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading flat at the 0.5650 level, reflecting consolidation following recent market action. The duo encounters instant resistance around the 0.5680 handle, with a break higher perhaps paving the way for more upside momentum. On the flip side, the area of 0.5620 has been a recent support level that has held firm. The 50-day moving average is in a neutral trend, and RSI hovers in a balanced zone, indicating indecision in the market. If the buying momentum picks up, the pair would challenge higher levels of resistance, while a breakdown below significant support levels would initiate further downward movement. FORECAST NZD/USD may steady higher above the 0.5680 resistance level and potentially as far as 0.5720 in the near term. A convincing breakout above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment and drive the pair to 0.5750. Supporting factors for this upward movement would be sustained economic strength in China, favorable sentiment regarding New Zealand’s trade prospects, and weakness in the US Dollar if market worries about trade tariffs increase. Moreover, any dovish communication from the Federal Reserve or de-escalation of US trade tensions would further propel upside movement. To the downside, as selling pressure builds, NZD/USD may test support around 0.5620, and a breakdown below this may see a further fall to 0.5580. A stronger US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand or expectations of hawkish monetary policy, may speed up this decline. On top of that, any negative Chinese economic news or doubt about Reserve Bank of New Zealand leadership succession might act as a drag on the New Zealand Dollar. Under deteriorating global risk sentiment, the pair might experience further losses, with 0.5550 being a key support level to monitor.

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