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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: Kiwi Fails to Hold Above 0.6000 After RBNZ Decision, Bearish Pressure Increases

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  • July 9, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair is in pressure, hovering close to a two-week low following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision to leave interest rates unchanged, as had been largely anticipated. While there was an initial post-RBNZ jump, the Kiwi could not hold ground amid a firmer US Dollar, bolstered by fading Fed rate cut hopes and persisting trade tensions. Technically, the decline of the pair through important moving averages and bearish signals indicates downside potential. A breakdown of the support at 0.5970 may then expose greater losses to 0.5900, with the recovery meeting resistance around 0.6025 and 0.6060. KEY LOOKOUTS • A solid breakout below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level may signal further losses to 0.5900 and the June low of 0.5880. • A stronger US Dollar supported by lower Fed rate cut speculation and safe-haven demand during trade uncertainties continues to suppress the Kiwi. • Any near-term recovery attempts could be met with resistance at 0.6025 (50% Fibo) and 0.6060 (38.2% Fibo), with an important breakout level at 0.6120. • The market response to the RBNZ’s rate hold remains subdued; upcoming Kiwi direction could depend on global risk appetite and US economic signals. NZD/USD currency pair is trading under pressure at a two-week low, unable to sustain its short-lived post-RBNZ gains after the central bank opted to leave interest rates steady. A robust US Dollar, driven by weakening hopes of Fed rate cuts and ongoing trade tensions, remains overwhelmingly bearish on the Kiwi. Technically, a breakdown through the 100-period SMA and bearish momentum indicators point towards additional downside risk. Unless the pair takes out important resistance areas above 0.6025, it is at risk of further losses, particularly if it breaks decisively below the 0.5970 support area. NZD/USD is trading close to a two-week low after an inability to hold gains of the RBNZ rate decision. Bearish technical conditions and a stronger USD suggest further decline below the 0.6000 level. Important support is at 0.5970, with resistance capped at 0.6025. • Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s closely anticipated hold on rates provided minimal support to the Kiwi. • NZD/USD touched 0.6015 briefly but reversed sharply, indicating weak bullish conviction. • Lower Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven flows into the USD are squeezing the NZD. • The pair declined below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. • A persistent break below this Fibonacci level may lead the way to 0.5935 and 0.5880. • Any rebound could short out at this level, followed by the 0.6060 and 0.6100 areas. • Market direction is dictated by global trade uncertainties and US policy worries. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to be burdened by wider macroeconomic forces, led by the continued strength of the US Dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left interest rates unchanged, as predicted, but the move did not give a confidence boost to investors in the Kiwi. The focus has instead turned to international events, particularly in the US, where trade policy issues and inflation expectations are directing currency flows. Since the US is holding its ground regarding tariffs and economic protectionism, the risk appetite of the market has been curbed, curtailing demand for risk-correlative assets such as the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts is also lending credence to the US Dollar’s support. Investors currently look for the Fed to hold off on any easing, keeping US yields sexy and firming up demand for the greenback. Furthermore, fear about global growth due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding trade talks continues to be the main theme in markets. This wider environment provides a challenging environment for the NZD to rally, despite calm local policy from the RBNZ. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has crossed below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which indicates bearish momentum change. Oscillators on both the hourly and daily charts are moving in negative directions, signifying building lower pressure. The pair is now trading below the important psychological level of 0.6000, and a resistance break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of around 0.5970 could signal a deeper bearish extension. Immediate support is at the 0.6025 level, with deeper levels of resistance at 0.6060 and 0.6100. Unless the pair recovers these levels, the technical bias is tilted in favor of sellers. FORECAST Should NZD/USD hold above the support area of 0.5970 and consolidate, a short-term recovery can be anticipated. The initial challenge for the bulls would be at the 0.6025 level, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall. A successful breach above this may direct the pair towards the 0.6060 area and possibly retest the 0.6100 level. Sustained buying momentum past this point may unlock the way towards the recent high at 0.6120, which can serve as a key resistance level for any such sustained bullish trend. Conversely, a failure to stay above 0.5970 may ignite new selling pressure, and the pair may be exposed to further losses. The next level of support comes in at 0.5935, and below that there is the psychologically relevant 0.5900 level. A breach below this might send NZD/USD towards the June monthly swing low of 0.5880. Based on prevailing market mood and technical indications, the downside looks more likely unless solid bullish momentum re-emerges.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Retreats Below 0.6000 Amid Mixed NZ Data and Pre-FOMC Caution

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  • May 7, 2025
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NZD/USD pair slipped back below the key 0.6000 level after briefly touching a two-week high during the Asian session, pressured by mixed New Zealand labor market data and a modest rebound in the US Dollar. Though US-China trade talk news and stable unemployment levels initially buoyed the Kiwi, weak wage growth and minimal job increases rekindled expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. In addition, risk-off sentiment in front of the Federal Reserve’s coming policy decision and Chair Powell’s comments has speculators holding off on new directional wagers, leaving the pair on the back foot. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players wait for the result of the Fed’s two-day conclave, with attention on the policy statement and the signals on future rate cuts by Chair Jerome Powell. • Weaker wage growth and muted employment increases continue to underpin bets that the RBNZ may cut rates to 2.75% by the end of the year, bearing down on NZD sentiment. • Hopes of resumed US-China trade negotiations in Switzerland could provide some support to risk-sensitive currencies such as the NZD, subject to developments. • A slight US Dollar recovery puts further pressure on the pair to the downside, and any sustained US Dollar strength would limit NZD/USD gains in the near term. NZD/USD pair continues to be exposed to further weakness as investors wait for important macroeconomic events and policy announcements. The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s words will be carefully monitored for rate path guidance, which will have a substantial bearing on USD demand. Meanwhile, ongoing bets on rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand—despite soft wage growth and lackluster employment numbers—are set to cap any meaningful upside for the Kiwi. In addition, some short-term relief may be provided by developments in US-China trade talks, but overall sentiment is still cautious and keeps the NZD/USD pair under selling pressure. NZD/USD pair is under downward pressure as markets look to the Fed’s policy decision and direction from Chair Powell. Combined New Zealand jobs data and expectations for a rate cut by the RBNZ continue to keep the Kiwi weighed down, with US-China trade talks providing minimal support. • NZD/USD retreated below 0.6000 after momentarily reaching a two-week high at around 0.6025 in the Asian session. •  Confusing New Zealand jobs data provided early support but couldn’t hold pace because of slow wage growth and limited employment gains. •  RBNZ rate cut bets are still intact, with markets pricing in a potential fall to 2.75% by the end of the year. •   US Dollar strength puts pressure on the pair with a modest bounce before pivotal Fed events. •   FOMC rate decision and Powell testimony are in high focus for new guidance on US monetary policy and rate expectations. •  Optimism on US-China trade talks provided a fleeting lift to market mood but not enough to sustain a rally. •  Market players are hesitant, staying out of large positions until after the Fed announcement and the related policy guidance. NZD/USD currency pair is currently driven by a combination of economic data and overall market mood. New Zealand’s recent labor market data displayed stability in unemployment rates, yet weak wage growth and minimal employment generation have contributed to concerns about the economic pace of the nation. These pressures have supported expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would potentially weigh further interest rate reductions in the months ahead to ensure domestic growth. The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report also noted dangers related to global trade uncertainty, which remains a drag on the economic forecast. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, market focus is on the approaching Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are anxiously awaiting any indication from the Fed on the direction of future US monetary policy. Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be crucial in determining expectations for interest rate movements. Concurrently with this, progress in US-China trade relations, notably the scheduled talks in Switzerland, is also under close observation. These global developments will have an important bearing on investor attitude and currency market direction in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD could not hold above the 0.6000 psychological level, showing high resistance around the 0.6020–0.6025 region. The pair’s rejection around this region may indicate a temporary halt in the recent upsurge. Major support comes in around 0.5960, and then firm demand around 0.5925. A near-term close back above 0.6000 would be required to renew short-term bullish sentiment, or a break below support levels may risk further losses. Momentum indicators also soften, underpinning the defensive near-term outlook. FORECAST Should risk appetite strengthen and market sentiment improve—especially on the back of favorable US-China trade talks news or a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve—NZD/USD may try and recapture the 0.6000 level. A continued break through this level could lead to further advances towards the 0.6025 resistance area, and if pace is maintained, the pair may aim at the 0.6060–0.6080 band. Also, any RBNZ surprise indicating a more dovish approach towards rate reductions could also provide upside support to the Kiwi. To the contrary, in the event of the Fed pursuing a hawkish stance or transmitting rate delay hints, the US Dollar would surge higher, depressing NZD/USD further. A violation below near-term support at 0.5960 would open up the pair for further declines down to 0.5925, with prospects for extended decline down towards 0.5900. Additionally, sustained weakening in New Zealand’s economic markers or a weakness in global trade sentiment would contribute to the bearish pressure in the near term.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Faces Pressure Below 0.5700 as Tariff Tensions with Trump Weigh, Along with Mixed PMI from China

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  • January 27, 2025
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The NZD/USD continues to be in pressure below the 0.5700 levels as risk aversion increases with Trump’s advisors stating that the administration is considering 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Colombia dodged sanctions due to its commitment to US terms, the Kiwi remains under pressure after mixed PMI data from China indicated weaker economic activity in one of New Zealand’s main trading partners. China did not manage to spur its equity markets with an investment program valued at 52 billion Yuan as the Kiwi could not overcome losses made as the US Dollar Index DXY broke above its lows and traded close to 107.70. KEY LOOKOUTS • Monitor for the updates of the mooted 25% tariffs by Trump’s advisories so that they may fuel further risk aversion, which would impact global trade dynamics. • Pay close attention to the influence of weak readings from Chinese Manufacturing (49.1) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (50.2) on New Zealand’s trade and economic prospects. • US Dollar Index (DXY) is staging a recovery from its monthly lows, currently situated at near 107.70 levels, which may weight on NZD/USD further. • Watch for China’s 52-billion-Yuan stock investment program’s success in reviving its equity market and whether it is supporting risk-sensitive assets like NZD. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to face selling pressure and trading below 0.5700 as risk sentiment weakens amid escalating trade tensions and disappointing economic data. The voted proposals of imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, advocated by the advisers of Trump, have raised market uncertainty whereas mixed Chinese PMI figures hint at a slowdown in New Zealand’s key trading partner’s economy. Manufacturing PMI for China slipped to 49.1, indicating contraction and its Non-Manufacturing PMI also slipped to 50.2, barely in expansion territory.”. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded from its monthly lows, further weighing on the risk-sensitive NZD, despite China’s stimulus efforts to support its equity markets. These combined factors continue to challenge the pair, keeping it under significant selling pressure. The NZD/USD pair continues to be under pressure below 0.5700 due to rising trade tensions, including the reported US tariffs on Mexico and Canada and weak Chinese PMI data that are weighing on sentiments. The US Dollar’s rebound and limited impact of China’s stimulus measures are further challenging the risk-sensitive Kiwi. • Increasing backing among Trump’s advisors for 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada has increased the sense of risk aversion in the market. • Tensions eased after Colombia agreed to US terms, avoiding sanctions and returning diplomatic stability. • China’s Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.1, indicating contraction, while Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, barely holding above expansion. • Weak Chinese economic data weighs heavily on the NZD, given China’s significant trade ties with New Zealand. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded to 107.70, further pressuring the NZD/USD pair. • New stimulus efforts worth 52 billion Yuan are aimed at reviving China’s equity markets but provide little support to the Kiwi. • Global risk aversion continues to plague the NZD/USD pair, pushing it below key support levels. The NZD/USD pair remains under heavy selling pressure, trading below 0.5700 amid escalating trade tensions and weak economic signals. The risk-sensitive Kiwi has taken a beating as the advisors of Trump push for 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, further creating uncertainty in the world economies and investor sentiment. Although tension with Colombia faded somewhat after that country agreed to US demands, trade policies remain a heavy burden for the market. Adding to the bearish tone, mixed Chinese PMI data shows a slowdown in New Zealand’s major trading partner as Manufacturing PMI shrinks at 49.1 and Non-Manufacturing PMI expands at a slow rate of 50.2. NZD/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to 107.70, with the rebound yielding to safe-haven demand and limiting a potential recovery for the NZD. Risk sentiment remains lackluster and unmoved by China’s new stimulus measures, which included a 52 billion yuan investment in equity markets. With aversion to risk being dominant, the NZD/USD pair remains at risk and vulnerable at the hands of broader market sentiment and updates on global trade policies that will dictate near-term moves. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD still moves under bearish influence, below the main key resistances in place around 0.5700. The price could not reapproach the moving average line that started to function at 50-days, confirming another fall on this side. Strong support remains to be 0.5660, a penetration level that might let the pair test the lows seen around 0.5600. On the positive side, resistance at 0.5725 needs to be cleared for any meaningful recovery, though broader bearish trends limit upside potential. The RSI hovers near oversold territory, suggesting a potential for short-term consolidation; however, overall momentum indicators, including the MACD, point to sustained bearish pressure. Traders should watch for any break of key support or resistance levels for directional cues. FORECAST The NZD/USD pair is likely to stay under pressure in the short term as the downside risks are more than any immediate recovery prospects. Risk aversion, fueled by rising US trade tensions with Mexico and Canada and weak Chinese economic data, will likely cap upside movements. If the pair breaks below the key support level of 0.5660, it could slide further and test the 0.5600 level. Weak global risk sentiment and a rising US Dollar Index (DXY) only make things worse for the Kiwi, as it is difficult to hold any rallies. On top of that, if China’s PMI numbers continue to show contractionary signs, then the NZD/USD pair might see further downward pressure. But on the other hand, if market sentiment improves or if some positive news comes regarding global trade policies, then there might be a slight bounce. Should the pair break above resistance at 0.5725, it could gain momentum to test higher levels around 0.5800. Improved risk appetite, effective implementation of China’s stimulus measures, or signs of Chinese economic stabilization should support the Kiwi. Any upside

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