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NZD/USD Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Stabilises, To Consolidate Between 0.5540 and 0.5760 – UOB Group

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  • April 10, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stabilised against the US Dollar (USD), FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of UOB Group report. After a brief fall to 0.5485, the NZD rallied sharply, ending stronger at 0.5650—a strong intraday gain. This move, particularly the break above the strong resistance level of 0.5650, suggests that the recent downtrend in NZD might have ended. Short term, the NZD/USD pair will test 0.5695, with consolidation expected in the wider range of 0.5540 to 0.5760. KEY LOOKOUTS •  NZD/USD may probe the 0.5695 level in the near term, as long as it remains above minor support at 0.5620 and key support at 0.5580. •  Although upside momentum is increasing, the major resistance level at 0.5760 is unlikely to be tested in the near term. •  The steep reversal and break above 0.5650 signal that recent NZD weakness has most probably stabilised and the outlook has turned from bearish to neutral. •  In the next 1–3 weeks, NZD/USD should consolidate between the 0.5540–0.5760 levels as market sentiment comes back into equilibrium. NZD/USD has turned as recent price action indicates that New Zealand Dollar weakness has stabilized. After dipping to 0.5485, the pair snapped back strongly and cleared the major resistance level at 0.5650, marking the end of the bear trend. The NZD is now expected by UOB Group analysts to range in a clear area of 0.5540 to 0.5760 in the short term. A 0.5695 test is on the cards if the currency remains above 0.5580, though a break through key resistance at 0.5760 is not expected in the short term. The New Zealand Dollar has probably settled versus the US Dollar, with NZD/USD likely to trade in the 0.5540-0.5760 range. A near-term 0.5695 test is on the cards if support at 0.5580 is maintained, though a break above 0.5760 is still not expected just yet. • The recent NZD/USD rebound indicates the earlier weakness is most likely stabilised. • NZD rose from the low point of 0.5485 to close strongly higher at 0.5650, rising 2.07% in a day. • The pair broke above strong resistance point of 0.5650, which is indicative of a change in short-term momentum. • NZD/USD can test 0.5695 if it holds above 0.5580. • Important support points to observe are at 0.5580 and 0.5620. • NZD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 over the next few days and weeks. • In spite of recent strength, the key resistance at 0.5760 is unlikely to be broken in the near future. The New Zealand Dollar seems to have returned to stability following a volatile period, indicating a more stable phase in its performance. This is a welcome relief for traders and market observers who have tracked the currency’s recent fluctuations. Analysts at UOB Group believe that the current market sentiment regarding NZD has moved from bearish to neutral, with indications favoring a consolidation phase instead of sustained volatility. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView This change in tone implies that the wider market will now turn attention to other drivers such as economic data releases, global risk appetite, and central bank commentary. The removal of pressure on the NZD creates room for investors to reconsider their strategy and projections without the initial pressure of wild volatility. On balance, the environment is more neutral, and the currency is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has made a strong recovery after it temporarily touched 0.5485, crossing above the significant resistance level at 0.5650. Such a breakout points to a possible change in momentum, meaning that the recent downtrend is likely over. The pair would now consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760, with weak support at 0.5580 and 0.5620. A short-term test of 0.5695 is conceivable if the levels of support are maintained, but the key resistance of 0.5760 will not be tested unless greater bullish momentum arises. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue to push higher moderately, particularly if it can find support just above 0.5580. The pair would move towards the next target of 0.5695 with the help of better market sentiment and technical support. With sustained buying interest, the higher end of the prevailing consolidation range at 0.5760 could be in view, although it should serve as a robust resistance in the short term. On the flip side, if NZD/USD fails to hold above 0.5580, it might unleash fresh selling pressure. Breaking below this level can drive the pair towards 0.5540, the lower boundary of the anticipated consolidation zone. Although the prior low of 0.5485 holds firm for the time being, any persistent weakness can re-open the way towards the crucial support level at 0.5450, which was recently a key level to monitor.

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Blog Currencies NZD/USD

NZD Has Key Test At 0.5570 Support with Long-term Risks Downward

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  • January 11, 2025
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You sound like you are talking about the New Zealand Dollar technical outlook in regards to a level, 0.5570. Analysts from UOB Group believe that this level could come under test for the NZD, but that a sustained breach below it is unlikely. In the longer term, they are also seeing increasing risks for the NZD to trend lower, although for this to happen, it would need to break clearly below the 0.5570 support level. If it is unable to do so, support may be found for the NZD at this level or possibly bounce back. This is a type of analysis that helps understand support and resistance levels, which help traders anticipate potential price movements. Keylookouts • NZD will probably test the 0.5570 level, and this level becomes the key support zone in the near term. • The outlook for NZD in the longer term remains increasingly bearish, with risks of further declines if key levels are breached. • In case of a confirmed bearish trend, NZD must break clear below the support level of 0.5570. • A sustained break below 0.5570 seems unlikely; hence, this level may serve as support or act as a reversal point. UOB Group’s FX analysts, Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann, recommend that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) test the 0.5570 level, although a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. The NZD may hold support at this level in the near term and potentially prevent a major decline. The longer-term outlook for the NZD, however, has been moving down and analysts point to increased risk of a decline in the currency. The bearish scenario would need the NZD to break convincingly below the 0.5570 level. Until then, the NZD is expected to hold at or above this support level with potential further movement within this range. The NZD is expected to test the 0.5570 support level, but a sustained break below it is unlikely, while the longer-term outlook turns to the downside, and the clear break below 0.5570 would confirm the bearish trend. KEY POINTS 1. The NZD is testing the 0.5570 support level. 2. The immediate perspective of staying below 0.5570 doesn’t look to be in cards. 3. The outlook for NZD in the medium term is increasingly bearish. 4. A confirmed bearish trend for the NZD would occur if it could break below 0.5570 clearly. 5. In case the NZD manages to hold above 0.5570, it would then avoid a quick fall. 6.  Failure to break below 0.5570 can lead to a support or reversal 7. Traders will have to track the price actions around 0.5570 very closely to track the direction going forward. The New Zealand Dollar is testing the 0.5570 support level in the near term. A strong break below this seems unlikely, as it has acted as a key support zone. If NZD can hold above 0.5570, it could avoid a deep decline, with a possibility of finding support or even reversing at this price level. Traders should watch price action closely around this level to gauge the next potential move. With respect to the intermediate-term and long-term, risk is moving downside for the NZD. The break below the support level at 0.5570 would confirm the bearish trend. However, should such a break occur, then it would mark a direction to further downside movements. However, until then, the NZD breaks clearly below 0.5570, the risk is to bounce or trade range-bound. Technical Analysis The New Zealand Dollar is now testing the crucial 0.5570 support level, which has proven strong in recent trading. While a break below this level could happen at some point, a sustained break does not seem probable anytime soon. Meanwhile, the NZD’s long-term trend remains bearish with downside risks continuing to build for the currency. For a confirmed bearish trend to emerge, the NZD needs to break clearly below the 0.5570 support, which would indicate further declines. Until such a break, there is a possibility that the NZD could find support at this level or experience range-bound movement, and therefore, the 0.5570 level is a point of interest for traders to monitor. NZD/USD Daily Price Charts Source TradingView, prepared by Ellyana. FORECAST If the NZD can hold above the 0.5570 support level, then it may be able to push higher, with the next resistance targets likely around 0.5600 and 0.5650. A break above 0.5570 could indicate a change in momentum, which may lead to a rally if market sentiment improves or if positive economic data emerges from New Zealand. However, for a more significant upward move, the NZD would have to hold the upward pressure and break through these resistance levels, which would indicate a continued bullish trend. Monitoring these key levels will be important in determining any potential upside in the near term. If the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) breaks below the critical 0.5570 support level, it could signal the start of a bearish trend, with further downside potential. The next support levels in view will most likely be seen around 0.5500 and 0.5450. If prices are maintained below 0.5570, it could have increased downside risks on the pair as it would show broader market weakness or perhaps worse economic data. The New Zealand dollar will have more downside and a strong clear break below 0.5570 may leave room for lower prices. Traders should look for confirmation of a break below this level to gauge the likelihood of further downward movement.

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