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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Poised to Extend Rally Toward 0.6100 on Weak US Data, Bullish Momentum

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  • June 5, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair rallied to a seven-month high at around 0.6055, on the back of widespread strength in the New Zealand Dollar and weakness in the US Dollar despite persisting US-China trade tensions on weak US economic data. The Kiwi remained upbeat despite sustained US-China trade tensions, drawing strength from declining US Treasury yields and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Technically, the pair is close to a bullish breakout through the consolidation range, with leaders such as the 20-day EMA and RSI hinting at upward momentum. A sustained break above 0.6050 might pave the way for a rally towards 0.6100 and further. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A break above this level might initiate bullish momentum towards 0.6100 and 0.6145. •  Any additional softness in US data can boost bets on a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar. •  Escalating tensions might affect risk sentiment and indirectly burden the NZD given New Zealand’s trade relationships with China. •  The bullish flag pattern, increasing 20-day EMA, and RSI above 60.00 all indicate further potential to go higher. NZD/USD pair maintains its rally, hitting a new seven-month high of around 0.6055 as the New Zealand Dollar trounces peers. The strength holds despite persistent US-China trade tensions, demonstrating the Kiwi’s resilience in a world filled with uncertainty. Subpar US economic data, such as weak ADP employment and ISM services data, has weighed on US Treasury yields and stoked hopes for a possible Fed rate reduction, further eroding the US Dollar. Technically, the couple is set to report a bullish break out of its latest consolidation range with momentum indicators such as the RSI and 20-day EMA favoring the move higher. A clean break above 0.6050 could set the stage towards the 0.6100–0.6145 resistance area. NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055 due to US Dollar weakness and healthy Kiwi demand. Bullish technical indications point towards a near-term breakout towards 0.6100. Weak US data and expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to pressure the Greenback. • NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055, propelled by general Kiwi strength. • Weak US economic indicators (ADP jobs, ISM Services) pressure US Treasury yields and the USD. • Speculation of Fed rate cut weighs on the US Dollar Index around 98.60. • US-China trade tensions continue, but the NZD stays resilient to potential threats. • Breakout expected technically, as NZD/USD nears the upper end of a bullish flag pattern. • RSI rises above 60, and the 20-day EMA steepens, indicating bullish momentum. • Next resistance levels are 0.6100 and 0.6145, while major support is at 0.5846. The NZD/USD pair has gained strong traction, reaching a seven-month high as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms amid a backdrop of global uncertainty. Despite ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, the Kiwi has shown resilience, supported by investor confidence in New Zealand’s economic stability. Statements from the previous US President Donald Trump on how hard it is to get a trade deal done with China have raised geopolitical concerns without suppressing demand for the NZD. This level of strength is particularly surprising considering New Zealand’s close economic relationship with China, and it shows the market’s faith in the Kiwi currency. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar is under pressure from soft local economic data. The most recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for May missed expectations, which raised doubts regarding the health of the US labor market and service sector. These reports have resulted in lower US Treasury yields and heightened speculation regarding monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in future meetings. In turn, investors are turning away from the USD, and this provides additional support to NZD/USD appreciation in the larger market environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is showing robust bullish momentum as it nears the upper limit of a Bullish Flag pattern, traditionally a continuation signal that foretells additional upside. The pair has moved out of its range of consolidation between 0.5846 and 0.6024, and this points to the possibility of an extended rally. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pointing higher at 0.5925, supporting the upward trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved past the 60.00 threshold, indicating building buying pressure. In the event that the pair remains above the level of 0.6050, it may reach the next significant resistance points of 0.6100 and 0.6145. FORECAST NZD/USD can see further upside if it continues above the 0.6050 level. A breakout above this level, supported by good technicals and weak US Dollar sentiment, could see the pair towards the next hurdle of 0.6100, then 0.6145. Ongoing weak US economic news, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and calm risk appetite would also see the pair see the bullish path through. Conversely, if NZD/USD cannot maintain a level above the 0.6050 region and comes under renewed pressure from external risk factors—like rising US-China trade tensions or higher-than-expected US data release—the pair may retreat. A fall below the May 12 low of 0.5846 would leave it vulnerable to further downside towards the 0.5800 psychological level, with further support at the April 10 high of 0.5767.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Under Pressure as US-China Trade Tensions Flare and US Dollar Strengthens in Advance of Important US GDP Release

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  • May 29, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair declined to close to 0.5935 in early Asian trading on Thursday under pressure from a stronger US Dollar as well as strengthened US-China trade tensions. The suspension of vital technology sales to China by the Trump administration, as well as strengthened restrictions by China on mineral exports, has increased fears of supply chain disruptions. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 25-basis-point rate reduction last week was partially defused by hints that easing is coming to an end. Contributing to volatility, a US federal court halted Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, further bolstering the US Dollar. Market participants now look to the US Q1 GDP preliminary reading, which can greatly impact the pair’s short-term direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any intensification or relaxation of trade tensions between the US and China would have a major influence on NZD/USD, as New Zealand has a significant trade relationship with China. • The first release of US GDP figures will also be watched closely. A softer-than-anticipated reading can soften the US Dollar and see support for the Kiwi. •   Expectations of future Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts remain subdued. Any shifts in RBNZ tone or policy signals may affect NZD/USD sentiment. •  General strength or weakness of the US Dollar, dependent on items like court decisions regarding tariffs and overall economy data, will remain a fundamental driver for the currency pair. Market players will be paying close attention to a number of factors influencing the near-term direction of NZD/USD. Excluding tensions between the US and China are a key risk, as further escalation may bear down on the New Zealand dollar owing to its trade dependence on China. Another key event is the US Q1 GDP preliminary figure, with the release potentially weakening the US Dollar and providing respite to the Kiwi if softer than anticipated. In turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s conservative approach to further rate reductions implies muted downside from monetary policy, but any change in tone would be able to rapidly influence market sentiment. Lastly, the overall resilience of the US Dollar, driven by legal updates regarding tariffs and economic prints, will remain a significant driver for the direction of the pair. NZD/USD also involve the ongoing US-China trade tensions, which can put pressure on the Kiwi because of New Zealand’s close relationship with China. Market participants are also concerned about the upcoming US Q1 GDP release as weaker-than-expected data can weaken the US Dollar and favor NZD/USD. Moreover, any changes in the RBNZ’s monetary policy expectations and overall US Dollar strength will be key considerations. •  Silver is also fluctuating around the nine-day EMA at around $33.10 and serves as a near-term support. • NZD/USD sagged to around 0.5935 against a stronger US Dollar and escalating US-China trade tensions. • The Trump administration halted US sales of key US technologies to China as a counter-measure to China’s export curbs on minerals. •  New Zealand’s proximity of trade with China exposes the Kiwi to worsening US-China relations. •  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, but suggested easing may be approaching its conclusion. •  Market expectations of another RBNZ rate cut in July have considerably decreased. • A US federal court stopped Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, which strengthened the US Dollar. • Traders look for the US Q1 preliminary GDP figures, which can shape the US Dollar and NZD/USD trend. Escalating tensions between the United States and China have brought uncertainly to New Zealand’s currency, as the nation has strong trade links with China. The recent move by the US government to limit the sale of key technologies to China is in retaliation to China imposing its own export restrictions on vital minerals. This tit-for-tat has made people uncertain about the security of global supply chains and subjected markets tied to both economies to stress. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently cut its official interest rate but signaled that more cuts may not be soon in the offing, which has somewhat comforted investors. On the American side, a federal court temporarily suspended sweeping tariffs drafted by the Trump administration, causing the US Dollar to rally. Going forward, investors are on the lookout for releases of crucial US economic statistics that would determine the direction of both currencies in the weeks ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is facing resistance around the 0.5950 level, where sell pressure has developed, curbing upside strength. The pair’s recent slide towards 0.5935 indicates bearish sentiment building support from a stronger US Dollar. Important support levels to pay attention to are around 0.5900, a breach below which could see the downward move gain momentum. To change the short-term attitude back in favor of the upside, a bounce above 0.5950 would be necessary. Market players will also be keeping a close eye on moving averages and momentum indicators for guidance on the pair’s next move. FORECAST NZD/USD currency pair is able to stay above crucial support levels and the US economic data, especially the soon-to-be-released GDP report, arrives weaker than anticipated, the Kiwi may get some reprieve. Weaker US Dollar due to weak US growth figures would tend to lift demand for the New Zealand currency. Also, any indication that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is approaching the end of its rate-cut cycle would enhance market conviction in the Kiwi to drive a possible rally above resistance levels near 0.5950. On the bearish side, further aggravation of US-China trade tensions could prove significantly bearish for NZD/USD, considering New Zealand’s economic links with China. Additional constraints or retaliatory actions might depress investor sentiment and place bearish pressure on the Kiwi. Additionally, if the US GDP figure comes in stronger than expected or the US Dollar is generally strong as a result of positive economic news or legal decisions, the NZD/USD exchange rate might come up against lower support levels around

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Moves Above 0.6000 Despite Rate Cut Speculation as US Dollar Lags Due to Debt Fears

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  • May 26, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair jumped above 0.6000, hitting new six-month highs around 0.6030 in Asian trading on Monday, even as rate cut speculation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) picks up. The New Zealand dollar strength is being witnessed against the backdrop of ongoing US Dollar weakness due to increasing concerns over the US fiscal deficit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cautioned that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposed by former President Trump would increase the deficit by $3.8 billion via tax loopholes, putting additional pressure on US bond yields and economic prospects. Half of NZIER’s Shadow Board members meanwhile suggest a 25 basis-point OCR cut in the next RBNZ decision, mirroring the nation’s lackluster inflation and weak growth. KEY LOOKOUTS •Markets are keenly observing if the RBNZ will act on NZIER’s suggestion of $25 basis-point rate cut in view of low inflation and sluggish economic growth. •The fate of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate might have a big bearing on the US Dollar, particularly if the estimated $3.8 billion increase in the deficit comes to pass. •Itching US bond yields could continue to prop up borrowing costs, heightening economic uncertainty and affecting currency flows. •Sustained weakness in the US Dollar, underpinned by debt issues, could assist NZD/USD in the near term, particularly if risk appetite remains positive. Investors will need to watch the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy announcement on Wednesday closely, as markets expect a potential 25 basis-point rate reduction in the face of muted inflation and slow growth. Meanwhile, events in regard to ex-President Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” could continue to take a toll on the US Dollar, particularly if the projected $3.8 billion rise in the fiscal deficit actually happens. Increasing US bond yields, driven by deficit worries, may also maintain pressure on the US economy by perpetuating elevated borrowing costs. In summary, NZD/USD is still responsive to changes in monetary policy expectations and investor sentiment risk, which will be major drivers in the near term. The markets are waiting for the RBNZ’s rate decision, with a majority of people expecting a 25 basis-point reduction with dismal growth. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness is sustained by Trump’s proposed bill due to raised deficit concerns, keeping NZD/USD underpinned at six-month highs. •  NZD/USD broke the 0.6000 barrier, reaching a six-month high of about 0.6030 during Asian trading on Monday. •  The New Zealand Dollar firmed even as speculation for an RBNZ rate reduction this week increased. •  Fifty percent of NZIER’s Shadow Board suggested a 25 basis-point cut in OCR, while others proposed a bigger cut or no change. • US Dollar weakness persists amid increasing fears about the US fiscal deficit and economic prospects. • Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” would cost the US $3.8 billion in additional deficit, predicts the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). • Higher US bond yields fueled by deficit worries may prolong high borrowing costs, injecting economic uncertainty. • Short-term market sentiment continues to favor NZD/USD as investors wait for significant monetary policy announcements. New Zealand Dollar continues to strengthen with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forthcoming monetary policy announcement pending. Though certain members of NZIER’s Shadow Board have suggested a rate cut, broader market sentiment and external influences continue to support the NZD. The RBNZ has a difficult call to make as it weighs low inflation with persisting fears of the nation’s lackluster economic growth. While a cut in the rate is an option, the central bank can also opt to stay on the sidelines amid worldwide uncertainties. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar comes under pressure as worries over the nation’s expanding fiscal deficit grow. And former President Donald Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” has come under scrutiny, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating it would increase the national deficit by $3.8 billion. The bill, which contains tax reductions for tipped employees and automobile purchasers, has raised concerns about long-term budgetary pressure. These events are creating uncertainty in US economic prospects, which is affecting global currency flows and favoring stronger performance from such currencies as the NZD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has pierced the important psychological resistance level of 0.6000, which points to positive momentum. The pair is around 0.6030, its highest in six months, which suggests ongoing buying interest. If this rally continues, the next resistance area could be around 0.6060–0.6080. On the negative side, there is immediate support at 0.5970, with further support at 0.5930. Momentum oscillators like RSI are still in bullish territory, which confirms the optimistic short-term view unless there is a drastic reversal in sentiment after the policy decision by the RBNZ. FORECAST If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes a cautious tone or postpones a cut in rates, then the NZD can continue with its bullish trend, taking NZD/USD higher. Further fall in the US Dollar, fueled by fiscal uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment surrounding the US economy, can also help the pair to gain further. If these conditions continue, the pair may test resistance levels around 0.6060 and even move towards 0.6100 in the near future. Improved market sentiment or better-than-expected New Zealand economic data would help the bullish argument further. Conversely, if the RBNZ announces a bigger-than-expected rate cut of more than 25 basis points or a more dovish easing tone, the NZD can become vulnerable. A reversal in the US Dollar, perhaps on the back of better risk appetite or better US economic readings, can also negatively impact the pair. In that case, NZD/USD may come under bear pressure, with early support around 0.5970 and further decline potentially pushing it towards 0.5930 or below. Traders need to keep an eye on changes in global risk sentiment, which has the potential to change the pair’s direction in no time.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Fights Below 0.5900 As PBoC Cuts Rate, US Credit Downgraded

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  • May 20, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair continues to face pressure at the 0.5900 level after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered its one-year Loan Prime Rate by 0.10 percentage point to 3.00% from 3.10%, a move that dented the New Zealand Dollar because of China’s close economic relationship with the latter. While blended Chinese data contributed to market volatility, New Zealand Q1 data revealed the steepest increase in producer prices in close to three years, fueling inflation fears. In contrast, the US Dollar softened following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing federal debt and fiscal difficulties. Market players now look forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision later today. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing market response to the PBoC’s reduction of the Loan Prime Rate and how that affects demand for the New Zealand Dollar, considering the nations’ robust trade relationship. • Look out for news or commentary on domestic inflation, particularly after Q1’s steep increase in producer input and output prices, which may be affecting RBNZ policy expectations. • Market sentiment may change considerably on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s future interest rate decision and guidance, affecting overall risk sentiment and AUD-cross flows. • Keep track of the market’s continuous reaction to Moody’s US credit rating downgrade and how it influences USD strength, Treasury yields, and overall risk appetite. Markets are watching carefully various factors that are affecting the NZD/USD pair. The People’s Bank of China’s recent rate cut still dents the New Zealand Dollar, evidencing the tight trade nexus between the two countries. Locally, New Zealand’s Q1 producer price surge has concerned observers with a possible resurgence in inflation pressures, which would have implications for monetary policy in the future. Also on the radar is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision next week, with a likely cut anticipated even with solid employment figures. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is under pressure after Moody’s downgrade of its credit rating, triggering wider fears about American fiscal stability. NZD/USD is under pressure with China’s rate cut and New Zealand’s renewed inflationary fears. Traders are also awaiting the RBA’s rate decision and the weakening of the US Dollar after Moody’s credit downgrade. • NZD/USD is trading close to 0.5900, still subdued after the PBoC reduced its one-year Loan Prime Rate to 3.00%. •  China policy relaxation puts the New Zealand Dollar under pressure as both nations have robust trade links. • Chinese economic data is mixed, with stronger-than-expected industrial production but soft retail sales. •  New Zealand’s Q1 statistics revealed the steepest increase in producer input and output prices in almost three years, triggering inflation fears. •  Market focus turns to the RBA, due to be cutting interest rates by 25 basis points even after solid jobs data. •  The US Dollar falls after Moody’s lowered the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing increased debt and fiscal issues. •  Broad risk sentiment remains delicate in the face of global rate policy divergence and fiscal policy uncertainty in large economies. New Zealand Dollar continues to be pressured by developments in the global economy, which continue to influence the sentiment of investors. The recent move by China to reduce its one-year Loan Prime Rate is indicative of persistent efforts to spur its economy, which has been reporting mixed signals with higher industrial output but lower retail sales. With New Zealand having a strong trade connection with China, these policy actions always have a major influence on the NZD. And at the same time, domestic inflation worries are re-emerging with the latest figures indicating a significant increase in producer prices—highlighting possible cost pressures within the economy. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView And the general market is absorbing Moody’s downgrade of the credit rating of the United States, a step that mirrors increasing concern about long-term fiscal sustainability. This move, coupled with projections of increasing debt and expanding deficits, has made markets wary globally. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is now catching investors’ attention, with expectations of an indication on how another major regional economy is coping with changing economic conditions. All these events as a whole shape market sentiment and could direct monetary policy expectations in the weeks to come. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is finding it difficult to make a strong move up from the 0.5920 level, indicating sustained resistance at this point. The pair is still trading below major moving averages on the daily chart, signifying a bearish short-term bias. In case of sustained downward pressure, support may be tested in the 0.5860–0.5880 region. In the up direction, a sustained move above 0.5950 would be necessary to show signs of a change in momentum. Technical levels like RSI are still neutral to slightly bearish, mirroring the pair’s guarded tone in the face of general market uncertainty. FORECAST Should market sentiment recover and global risk appetite improve, NZD/USD may recover towards the 0.5950–0.5980 resistance level. Upside surprises in New Zealand’s economic reports, for instance, stronger growth or contained inflation, can also help the Kiwi. In addition, any stabilization or improvement in China’s economy would improve New Zealand’s export prospects and spur bullish pressure in the NZD. A weaker US Dollar due to fears of fiscal health or poor economic data could also further contribute towards an upside move. On the negative side, NZD/USD could see renewed selling pressure if risk appetite weakens or Chinese economic data continues to weaken. A firmer US Dollar, fueled by safe-haven buying or hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, might send the pair down to the 0.5860 support level or lower. Locally, if New Zealand inflation pressures prompt worries about weakening demand or if the Reserve Bank is prudent, the Kiwi might stay on the back foot. Geopolitical tensions or global growth worries might also cap upside potential and predispose towards downside risks.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Advances to Above 0.5950 as US Dollar Weakens Further and US-China Trade Dominates the Narrative

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  • May 5, 2025
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NZD/USD pair continued its bull run during Monday’s Asian trading, moving beyond the 0.5950 level on further weakness in the US Dollar and on increasing US-China trade discussion momentum. Statements from President Trump on possible cuts to tariffs and the continued dialogue over trade added volatility to the market, with even stronger-than-projected US job numbers having little effect on the greenback. In the meantime, expectations of sharper unemployment numbers in New Zealand have driven speculation over additional monetary accommodation by the RBNZ, with a cut of 25 basis points highly anticipated later in the month. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any developments or setbacks in the trade negotiations will have a serious impact on the market mood and the direction of NZD/USD. • An increase in the unemployment level could reinforce anticipation of additional RBNZ monetary easing. • The markets are factoring in a 25 basis point rate cut; even a change in tone or guidance from the central bank has the potential to influence the Kiwi’s appreciation. • Following a robust NFP reading, ongoing weakness in the US Dollar indicates that traders are paying attention to larger macroeconomic indicators and possible Fed policy action. NZD/USD currency pair is building a firm upside momentum, trading around 0.5970 as the US Dollar loses strength with fresh attention being given to US-China trade negotiations and the dovish tone of central banks. President Trump’s comments on the possibility of reducing tariffs and the likelihood of resumed negotiations have strengthened risk appetite, propping up the Kiwi. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching upcoming labor data from New Zealand, with expectations of a higher unemployment rate likely reinforcing forecasts of further monetary easing by the RBNZ. Despite stronger-than-expected US job growth in April, the Dollar remains under pressure, keeping the NZD/USD pair supported for a second consecutive session. NZD/USD hovers around 0.5970 as the US Dollar loses strength on fresh US-China trade hopes. New Zealand’s future labor statistics are in the market’s focus, with hopes of a rate cut from the RBNZ. Even with strong US employment figures, the Kiwi keeps finding support for the second consecutive session. •  NZD/USD hovers around 0.5970, posting gains for the second consecutive session. • US Dollar declines, led by trade uncertainty and dovish policy expectations. • US-China trade talks in the spotlight, with Trump affirming that there are still talks but no meeting with Xi this week. • Trump suggests future tariff cuts, improving market mood and risk assets. •  US Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecasts, but the USD did not rally as broader concerns persist. • New Zealand unemployment likely to rise, boosting chances of RBNZ monetary easing. • Markets already price in a 25 bps RBNZ rate cut, with rates set to bottom at 2.75% by October. New Zealand Dollar is finding steady support as market focus shifts to general economic and geopolitical trends. One driving sentiment is the current US-China trade issue, and President Trump has confirmed negotiations are ongoing, although there are no scheduled direct discussions with Chinese President Xi in the week ahead. His words that he might cut tariffs have provided a welcome note of optimism to the market, particularly for nations such as New Zealand which are so reliant on world trade. At the same time, China’s Commerce Ministry said it is examining an American proposal to resume talks, adding further to the optimism. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Together with the trade story, economic news from the US and New Zealand is driving expectations. While the US posted good job growth in April, worries regarding long-term economic policy and worldwide conditions have left the Dollar under pressure. In New Zealand, forthcoming labor market figures are due to indicate a modest increase in unemployment, supporting the prognosis for additional policy assistance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Markets are already pricing in a rate cut this month, signaling a guarded but defensive climate for the Kiwi. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD continues to display bullish momentum after breaking out above the 0.5950 resistance point and now trading close to 0.5970. This higher motion indicates buyer demand is increasing, fueled by a softer US Dollar and favorable risk environment. The pair could reach the next resistance level at around 0.6000 if it holds above 0.5970. Support is lower in 0.5920, and a break below there could mark a possible halt to the ongoing uptrend. Momentum gauges such as the RSI continue to be positive, supporting the short-term bull bias. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue its advance towards the psychological level of 0.6000, with additional resistance anticipated around 0.6030. Such an advance would be supported by ongoing US Dollar weakness, a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, or a dovish policy change from the Federal Reserve. Also, if New Zealand economic numbers, especially labor market data, arrive better than anticipated, it may restrict the margin for RBNZ easing and provide further encouragement to the Kiwi. Under such circumstances, the pair may keep going up in the short term as buyers drive it in that direction. On the flip side, if upcoming New Zealand labor data shows a significant uptick in unemployment or if risk sentiment deteriorates due to stalled trade talks, NZD/USD could face downward pressure. A drop below the 0.5920 support zone might trigger further selling, potentially pulling the pair toward the next support level around 0.5880. Moreover, any surprise hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve or better-than-anticipated US data could support the Dollar and dampen the NZD. The pair might then find it difficult to sustain its latest bullish trend.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Outlook: Bullish Momentum Aims at 0.6038 Resistance, Support Remains at 0.5929

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  • April 25, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair is presently facing short-term bullish momentum, holding losses under the 0.6000 level. The technical indicators are reflecting a positive bias, and the pair is currently trading above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a possible rebound towards the crucial resistance level of 0.6038, the six-month high. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at levels above 50 also underpins the positive outlook, suggesting a move to the seven-month high of 0.6350 is within reach. Yet, should the price drop below the nine-day EMA line at 0.5929, bearish pressure might be elevated, potentially testing the 50-day EMA at 0.5781, with subsequent losses focusing on the 0.5485 support level. KEY LOOKOUTS • The nine-day EMA at 0.5929 currently supports the NZD/USD pair. A decline below this level may indicate a change towards a bearish trend, and further decline towards the 50-day EMA at 0.5781. • The major resistance level of 0.6038, the six-month high, may be tested as the pair continues to show bullish momentum. A persistent break above it would set the stage for a possible rally to the seven-month high of about 0.6350. •  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is presently well above the 50 level, which means the bullish momentum continues to hold good. An advance towards the 70 level can further reinforce the bullish sentiment and enable a thrust towards higher levels of resistance. •  A continuing decline below the nine-day EMA would undermine the present bullish picture and result in a more significant fall, with 0.5781 and 0.5485 as levels to observe for additional downside potential. NZD/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength, with the price remaining above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5929, indicating the potential for further increase. The most important resistance level to monitor is 0.6038, a six-month high, which would be tested if the upward trend persists. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50 also adds to the optimistic view, and a push towards the seven-month high around 0.6350 is a possibility. Nonetheless, a breach down below the nine-day EMA would indicate a loss of the bullish momentum, leaving way open for further declines with support levels at 0.5781 and 0.5485 in the picture. NZD/USD is displaying short-term bullish momentum, underpinned by the nine-day EMA at 0.5929 and by an RSI in excess of 50, with resistance at 0.6038 in the sights. A break below the EMA may induce a move lower toward support levels at 0.5781 and 0.5485. •  NZD/USD is displaying short-term bullish momentum, retaining support above the nine-day EMA at 0.5929. • The main resistance level is 0.6038, the six-month high, which may be challenged if the up trend persists. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is greater than 50, indicating a positive bias and possibility of further upward movement. • A break above 0.6038 may trigger a run-up to the seven-month high around 0.6350. • The first support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.5929, which is essential to sustain the bullish momentum. • A fall below the nine-day EMA may undermine the short-term bullish outlook and lead to further declines. • Further weakening may drive the pair towards the 50-day EMA of 0.5781 and, if persisted, towards the 0.5485 support level. NZD/USD currency exchange rate is currently displaying a positive trend, with strength as it maintains levels around the 0.5960 point. This is fueled by general market conditions that support the New Zealand Dollar in the near future. As the pair keeps displaying a positive run, it offers potential for the achievement of future gains, particularly with traders watching key price points that could trigger more advancement. The outlook for the pair is also good, and most are focusing on potential areas of resistance to determine how well it can keep going upwards. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the future, the NZD/USD pair will continue to attract attention if it can support itself and maintain its momentum at the moment. Short-term price fluctuations are natural in the market, but generally, the tone is upbeat thanks to robust fundamentals and investor confidence. As the duo advances, focus will be on its capacity to maintain recent gains and possibly test higher levels, which would further cement the bullish expectation for the currency in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is demonstrating short-term bullish momentum, with the price remaining above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5929, reflecting positive price action in the near term. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, also in support of the bullish bias and indicating that the pair may extend its rally. A breakout above the important resistance level at 0.6038 would confirm the continuation of the rally to higher levels, while holding on above the EMA supports the positive sentiment. But any fall below the nine-day EMA might indicate a possible change in trend, and support levels need to be watched closely for further guidance. FORECAST NZD/USD is showing good short-term bullish momentum now, and if it continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it might challenge the critical resistance level at 0.6038. A successful break above this resistance would pave the way for the pair to potentially reach the seven-month high near 0.6350, last seen in October 2024. The prevailing positive market sentiment, supported by the RSI staying above 50, indicates that the pair may continue to gain ground in the near term, challenging higher resistance levels as it maintains upward momentum. On the negative side, a breach below the nine-day EMA at 0.5929 may indicate weakening of the present bullish trend. If the pair cannot maintain above this support level, it may experience further downward pressure to the 50-day EMA at 0.5781. In a more bearish setup, if bears continue to reign, the pair may test deeper support levels near 0.5485, which has not been touched since March 2020. So, a breakdown below the EMA would have alarms ringing about further depreciation, and traders

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Remains Close to Five-Month Highs Due to US Trade Policy Uncertainty and RBNZ Easing Hopes

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  • April 18, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues near its five-month highs, trading around 0.5970, as investors pay close attention to US trade policy developments, especially given New Zealand’s substantial export relations with China. In spite of a recent surge, the New Zealand Dollar is rangebound due to anticipation of additional monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which is expected to reduce rates in May. US trade tensions and the fear of the economic effects of tariffs on China have seen a weakening US Dollar, driving the NZD higher. At the same time, US economic indicators revealed a drop in initial jobless claims, but an increase in continuing claims, further affecting market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any change in US trade policy, particularly with regards to tariffs on China, could have a major impact on the NZD/USD pair. With New Zealand having a strong export relationship with China, any increase or decrease in trade tensions will be closely monitored. • Hopes of further monetary easing from the RBNZ, potentially in the form of a May rate cut, may bear down on the New Zealand Dollar. Traders will monitor any official commentary or economic releases that signal the central bank’s next action. • Ongoing economic metrics, specifically labor market indicators such as jobless claims, will give indications of the strength of the US economy. A softer-than-anticipated US economy might add extra pressure on the US Dollar and give extra room for NZD upside. • In light of prevailing market volatilities, any shift in global risk sentiment, for example, fears surrounding the economic impacts of US tariffs or geopolitical pressures, may impact investor demand for riskier currencies such as the NZD. NZD/USD pair remains close to five-month highs at about 0.5970 as investors continue to watch events regarding US trade policy and their potential implications on New Zealand’s economy. The attention of the market is centered around US-China trade tensions, considering that New Zealand has a huge export relationship with China. The New Zealand Dollar is also under pressure due to anticipation of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and an anticipated rate cut in May. The US Dollar has been on the back foot with worries regarding the economic impact of tariffs and recent US labor market statistics, indicating a reduction in initial jobless claims but an upsurge in continuing claims, contributing to the uncertainty. As volume has been sparse to date given the Good Friday holiday, NZD/USD will likely realize higher levels should the US Dollar soften further but there is a great deal hanging on the further progression of trade policy and the unfolding of economic fundamentals in the days ahead. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to trade close to its five-month highs around 0.5970 as concerns over US trade policy rise and anticipation of further monetary relaxation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand grows. The New Zealand Dollar is bolstered by a weaker US Dollar as trade tensions and economic indicators continue to affect market sentiment. • The NZD/USD currency pair is trading close to its five-month high, at 0.5970, following seven consecutive days of increases. • Market participants are keenly observing US trade policy news, especially with regards to China, since New Zealand’s economy is greatly dependent on exports to China. • US-China trade tensions may impact the NZD/USD pair, particularly following US President Trump’s statement regarding the possibility of not imposing additional higher tariffs on China. •  Recent US economic statistics, such as a fall in initial jobless claims and a rise in continuing claims, are influencing market sentiment and supporting a weaker USD. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to further ease monetary policy, with markets already pricing in a rate cut in May, which may pressure the NZD. • The US Dollar has weakened on fears over the economic consequences of tariffs, offering a chance for the NZD to firm up. • Volumes in trading are bound to be light because of the Good Friday holiday, which might result in lesser market volatility in the short term. NZD/USD currency pair is trading around its five-month highs as of now, indicating a spell of relative stability in spite of continued global uncertainty. Investors are especially interested in the evolution of US trade policy, with keen interest in the possible effects of trade relations between the US and China, in light of New Zealand’s high export connections with its biggest trading partner. While the New Zealand Dollar has been able to remain robust, much of its movement is influenced by external forces, including changes in US economic strategy and general market sentiment. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, sentiment around the monetary policy moves by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is shaping the outlook for the New Zealand Dollar. With inflation remaining within the target band for the central bank, there is speculation that more easing measures might be in store. This interplay, together with a normally subdued trading session on account of the Good Friday holiday, indicates that while there is conservative optimism surrounding the NZD, its future directions will be greatly dependent on both global trade evolution and domestic economic choices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD pair is testing resistance around the five-month high of 0.5979, and it looks promising to see further potential for upside if the price can continue above this point. The pair has been exhibiting steady upward motion during the last week, with gains for seven straight days, which may be a sign of a bullish trend. Yet, as the pair lingers around crucial resistance, the traders will keenly observe for a breakout or a pullback. Support levels at 0.5900 may serve as a cushion on a reversal, while any change in market mood, especially in relation to US trade policy or the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy direction, may drive the pair in the short term. FORECAST NZD/USD pair may experience additional upside if the US

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Stabilises, To Consolidate Between 0.5540 and 0.5760 – UOB Group

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  • April 10, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stabilised against the US Dollar (USD), FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of UOB Group report. After a brief fall to 0.5485, the NZD rallied sharply, ending stronger at 0.5650—a strong intraday gain. This move, particularly the break above the strong resistance level of 0.5650, suggests that the recent downtrend in NZD might have ended. Short term, the NZD/USD pair will test 0.5695, with consolidation expected in the wider range of 0.5540 to 0.5760. KEY LOOKOUTS •  NZD/USD may probe the 0.5695 level in the near term, as long as it remains above minor support at 0.5620 and key support at 0.5580. •  Although upside momentum is increasing, the major resistance level at 0.5760 is unlikely to be tested in the near term. •  The steep reversal and break above 0.5650 signal that recent NZD weakness has most probably stabilised and the outlook has turned from bearish to neutral. •  In the next 1–3 weeks, NZD/USD should consolidate between the 0.5540–0.5760 levels as market sentiment comes back into equilibrium. NZD/USD has turned as recent price action indicates that New Zealand Dollar weakness has stabilized. After dipping to 0.5485, the pair snapped back strongly and cleared the major resistance level at 0.5650, marking the end of the bear trend. The NZD is now expected by UOB Group analysts to range in a clear area of 0.5540 to 0.5760 in the short term. A 0.5695 test is on the cards if the currency remains above 0.5580, though a break through key resistance at 0.5760 is not expected in the short term. The New Zealand Dollar has probably settled versus the US Dollar, with NZD/USD likely to trade in the 0.5540-0.5760 range. A near-term 0.5695 test is on the cards if support at 0.5580 is maintained, though a break above 0.5760 is still not expected just yet. • The recent NZD/USD rebound indicates the earlier weakness is most likely stabilised. • NZD rose from the low point of 0.5485 to close strongly higher at 0.5650, rising 2.07% in a day. • The pair broke above strong resistance point of 0.5650, which is indicative of a change in short-term momentum. • NZD/USD can test 0.5695 if it holds above 0.5580. • Important support points to observe are at 0.5580 and 0.5620. • NZD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 over the next few days and weeks. • In spite of recent strength, the key resistance at 0.5760 is unlikely to be broken in the near future. The New Zealand Dollar seems to have returned to stability following a volatile period, indicating a more stable phase in its performance. This is a welcome relief for traders and market observers who have tracked the currency’s recent fluctuations. Analysts at UOB Group believe that the current market sentiment regarding NZD has moved from bearish to neutral, with indications favoring a consolidation phase instead of sustained volatility. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView This change in tone implies that the wider market will now turn attention to other drivers such as economic data releases, global risk appetite, and central bank commentary. The removal of pressure on the NZD creates room for investors to reconsider their strategy and projections without the initial pressure of wild volatility. On balance, the environment is more neutral, and the currency is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has made a strong recovery after it temporarily touched 0.5485, crossing above the significant resistance level at 0.5650. Such a breakout points to a possible change in momentum, meaning that the recent downtrend is likely over. The pair would now consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760, with weak support at 0.5580 and 0.5620. A short-term test of 0.5695 is conceivable if the levels of support are maintained, but the key resistance of 0.5760 will not be tested unless greater bullish momentum arises. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue to push higher moderately, particularly if it can find support just above 0.5580. The pair would move towards the next target of 0.5695 with the help of better market sentiment and technical support. With sustained buying interest, the higher end of the prevailing consolidation range at 0.5760 could be in view, although it should serve as a robust resistance in the short term. On the flip side, if NZD/USD fails to hold above 0.5580, it might unleash fresh selling pressure. Breaking below this level can drive the pair towards 0.5540, the lower boundary of the anticipated consolidation zone. Although the prior low of 0.5485 holds firm for the time being, any persistent weakness can re-open the way towards the crucial support level at 0.5450, which was recently a key level to monitor.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Suffers as Fed is Cautious and Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Can China’s Stimulus Rescue the Kiwi?

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  • March 21, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues to suffer from downward pressure for a third consecutive session as slight US Dollar strength takes its toll on the Kiwi. The Federal Reserve’s position of offering no more than two rate cuts this year, together with continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, has contributed to safe-haven flows towards the Greenback. Though these forces temper the NZD’s outlook, positives surrounding China’s latest stimulus efforts provide some respite to the antipodean currency. Still, without high-profile US economic data releases, traders might still be cautious, waiting for more definitive signals before establishing a reversal in the NZD/USD trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar continues to be supported as markets absorb the Fed’s expectation of just two rate reductions by year-end. • Safe-haven demand for the Greenback continues to be fueled by ongoing Middle East conflicts and Russia-Ukraine war, putting pressure on NZD. • Hopes for China’s recent stimulus efforts may provide near-term support to the Kiwi and other antipodean currencies. • Weak US economic data may result in defensive trading, with investors waiting for a clear trend reversal in NZD/USD. The NZD/USD currency pair is under pressure against a mildly firm US Dollar, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach towards interest rate reductions and persistent geopolitical tensions. The safe-haven demand for the Greenback is supported by ambiguity over global wars, especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, hope over China’s newly proposed stimulus packages provides a possible safety net for the New Zealand Dollar, capping further losses. Without major US economic data, market players will resort to a wait-and-see strategy, awaiting clearer signs before affirming a directional change in the NZD/USD trend. NZD/USD continues to struggle for the third consecutive day against the backdrop of modest USD appreciation and increasing geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, China’s stimulus optimism might serve to confine losses for the Kiwi to a smaller extent. Traders now look for clearer signs before affirming any significant trend change. • NZD/USD is down for the third day in a row, showing ongoing Kiwi weakness in the face of moderate US Dollar firmness. • The Greenback takes support from the Fed estimating only two 25 bps interest rate reductions by the end of the year, enhancing safe-haven demand. • Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks regarding slowed inflation gains and retaliation tariff fears further buoy the Greenback. • Middle East geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain key drivers of demand for the safe-haven USD. • Recent stimulus in China provides some resilience to the New Zealand Dollar, preventing deep declines. • Traders’ restraint due to absence of key US economic data releases keeps them in wait-and-watch mode for more robust cues to take aggressive positions. • Sentiment in markets remains contradictory, with USD strength potential limited by fears of tariff-induced US economic slowdown. The NZD/USD currency pair remains under pressure as general economic and geopolitical considerations shape market sentiment. The US Dollar is supported by the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance towards interest rate reductions, with policymakers only forecasting two cuts this year. Further, comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on potential delays in meeting inflation targets due to global tariff retaliation have contributed to the Greenback’s strength. Meanwhile, continued geopolitical tensions, including Middle East tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, have increased the need for secure assets such as the US Dollar. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, some of the New Zealand Dollar’s positive momentum is coming from China’s newly announced economic stimulus policies. As a key trading partner for New Zealand, China’s economic outlook plays a crucial role in shaping the Kiwi’s performance. The stimulus efforts are expected to boost economic activity, indirectly benefiting export-driven economies like New Zealand. While these global dynamics continue to unfold, traders are closely monitoring market developments, waiting for stronger signals to determine the long-term direction of the currency pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is appearing to suffer from chronic weakness as it is not able to maintain above crucial levels of support, and new selling pressure is seen near the mid-0.5700s. The pair’s failure to hold a bounce back from the 0.5720–0.5725 area indicates that downward momentum is still intact. The markets are eagerly observing for a firm break below this area of support, which might pave the way for more downside. However, any attempt to recover is threatened by the prospects of sellers cropping up in the 0.5780–0.5800 area, unless there’s a very good bullish stimulus shifting sentiment. FORECAST Any shift in the sentiment towards the riskier assets or a decline in the strength of the US Dollar as a result of the dovish inputs from the Fed or disappointing economic reports might result in NZD/USD recovering. A continued advance past the 0.5780–0.5800 resistance level might indicate fresh buying interest and carry the pair toward the next resistance around 0.5840. Improved Chinese economic news or better-than-anticipated New Zealand data might serve as a further catalyst for further pair upside action. On the negative side, sustained US Dollar strength, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or poor market confidence may continue to keep the NZD under strain. A fall below the 0.5720 support level may initiate further losses, setting the stage for a drop towards the 0.5670–0.5650 area. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair may even test lower levels not witnessed in recent months, supporting the bearish outlook unless backed by new fundamental triggers.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises to Two-Month High: Weaker US Dollar and Optimism in Markets Fuel Gains

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  • February 17, 2025
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NZD/USD is on its third day of rise, hitting a two-month high of about 0.5750 as the US Dollar stays weak. The Greenback continues to face pressure following weak US Retail Sales data and a delay in Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, which have weakened investor mood. Meanwhile, hope for Trump’s strategy to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis contributes to the risk-on atmosphere, further backing the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and the anticipation of a major rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may limit further increases. Technically, last week’s break above 0.5700 reinforces the bullish scenario, and any short-term corrections offer a chance to buy on the cheap before the key RBNZ meeting. KEY LOOKOUTS        • The US Dollar is still under pressure from dismal Retail Sales and a hold-up in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, solidifying NZD/USD advances. • Optimism over Trump’s suggested solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosts market mood, giving strength to the Kiwi against the Greenback. • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive tone is counter to hopes of a large rate cut by the RBNZ, which could limit NZD/USD’s rally. • Last week’s break above the 0.5700 level adds to bullish momentum, setting NZD/USD up for further gains unless market conditions turn unexpectedly. NZD/USD gains momentum, rising to a two-month high with the US Dollar weakening in the face of soft Retail Sales and the hold-up of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The pair gets support from upbeat market mood following the hopes over Trump’s efforts in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, the widening gap between the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s planned rate reductions might cap additional gains. Technically, the break higher last week above 0.5700 supports a bullish view, and any near-term pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity prior to the important RBNZ meeting. NZD/USD rises to a two-month peak on back of persistent USD weakness and improved market mood. Yet Fed-RBNZ policy divergence could restrict further upside scope. • The pair maintains its upward momentum to around 0.5750 in the wake of persistent USD weakness. • Frustrating US retail sales and delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain to keep Greenback under the pump. • Positive sentiment with respect to how Trump is containing the Russia-Ukraine war bolsters NZD/USD’s strength. • The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve in comparison to hoped-for major cut by the RBNZ later can limit NZD/USD’s gains. • Last week’s break higher past the level of 0.5700 maintains the upside story for NZD/USD. • Any near-term correction would be a buying opportunity before the key RBNZ meeting. • The RBNZ meeting and additional US economic data releases will determine NZD/USD’s next direction. NZD/USD continues its bullish trend after breaching the key 0.5700 resistance level, reaffirming a strong bull trend. The breakout indicates additional upside potential, with the next target at 0.5800. The duo is still comfortably above major moving averages, indicating persistent buying pressure. Moreover, the recent price action also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the bullishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought levels, which may indicate a short-term pullback, but overall, the uptrend is intact as long as the price is above the 0.5700 support level. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA A corrective pullback should find support around 0.5700, a level that was resistance in the past and can now act as a solid floor for buyers. Below this, further support can be found around 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a break above 0.5750 should see further buying, driving the pair to 0.5800 and beyond. However, traders should exercise caution as the upcoming RBNZ meeting could introduce volatility, potentially influencing the Kiwi’s trajectory. Overall, the technical outlook favors the bulls, but market participants should watch for any fundamental shifts that could alter the trend. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has strengthened its bullish outlook after breaking above the key 0.5700 resistance level last week. This breakout indicates strong buying momentum, with the next potential upside target around 0.5800. The duo is trading above significant moving averages, maintaining a bullish inclination, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around overbought levels, which may result in a short-term correction. But any correction will find support at 0.5700, which has become a critical support level. Further appreciation will be seen if buyers continue to drive the prices higher, but care is to be exercised before the RBNZ meeting, which may create volatility. FORECAST NZD/USD’s recent break above the 0.5700 resistance line is a bullish indication of firm buying pressure, and there could be more to go if such momentum is maintained. A strong continuation above 0.5750 could open the door to testing the psychological level of 0.5800, which will serve as the next hurdle. If the bullish trend continues, the pair may even push higher to 0.5850, particularly if the US Dollar stays soft in the wake of softer economic information or a dovish Fed prognosis. Favorable risk attitudes and optimism over developments in geopolitics would also play in favor of the Kiwi, further augmenting its strength against the Greenback in the near term. In spite of the bullish inclination, NZD/USD is still susceptible to possible pullbacks, particularly if the next RBNZ meeting indicates aggressive rate cuts, which would soften the Kiwi. A breakdown below the 0.5700 support level may initiate a more significant correction, with the next significant support at 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. If selling pressure increases, the pair may fall towards 0.5600, where buyers might try to stem further losses. Furthermore, any US Dollar rebound, as a result of hawkish Fed statements or more robust than anticipated economic numbers, may cap NZD/USD’s upside and reverse momentum in favor of the bears.

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