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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Weakens near 0.5900 due to Poor NZ GDP and USD Post-FOMC Recovery Hurting Kiwi

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  • September 18, 2025
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NZD/USD continued to fall for the second consecutive day, plummeting towards the 0.5900 mark after New Zealand’s Q2 GDP fell by 0.9%, much lower than forecasts. The poor numbers stoked expectations of additional RBNZ rate cuts, taking a heavy toll on the Kiwi, while the US Dollar recovered from multi-year lows in the post-FOMC session, further exerting downward pressure. Bears currently target a decisive break below 0.5900 to validate further declines, with initial support at 0.5875 and further targets around 0.5835 and 0.5800. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Q2 GDP fall of 0.9% places additional pressure on the RBNZ to weigh up additional rate cuts, suppressing the Kiwi. • The US Dollar’s recovery after the FOMC from multi-year lows still puts pressure on NZD/USD to the downside. • A continued dip below the 0.5900 level, supported by significant Fibonacci and moving average resistance, may initiate deeper losses. • Any bounce attempts are confronted with instant resistance at 0.5935–0.5960, with tougher barriers at 0.6000 and higher. NZD/USD is facing intense selling pressure, ranging near the 0.5900 confluence point as downbeat New Zealand GDP news and a stronger US Dollar bear heavily on the pair. The more-than-anticipated 0.9% Q2 GDP slump boosted expectations of more RBNZ rate cuts, weakening sentiment against the Kiwi. In contrast, the USD is gaining traction on post-FOMC rebound, lending further support to the bearish bias. Any break below 0.5900 may pave the way for further losses, while any bounce will be likely to be resisted around 0.5935–0.5960 and at the 0.6000 psychological level. NZD/USD is trading under pressure at 0.5900 after New Zealand’s Q2 GDP fell sharply, increasing hopes of RBNZ rate cuts. The pair is also facing additional downside pressures from a rising US Dollar, and the bears are looking to break below key technical levels for additional losses. • NZD/USD declines for a second consecutive day, underpinned by soft local data and a rising USD. • Q2 NZ GDP contracted 0.9% QoQ, worse than the forecast 0.3% fall, reversing last quarter’s expansion. • Rate cut expectations increase for the RBNZ, further weighing on New Zealand Dollar demand. • USD strengthens on FOMC recovery from multi-year lows, adding to Kiwi weakness. • A crucial support at 0.5900 coincides with the 200-period SMA (4H) and 50% Fibonacci retracement. • Further downside levels are at 0.5875, 0.5835, and the 0.5800 August swing low. • Upside resistance is at 0.5935–0.5960, with firmer hurdles at 0.6000 and 0.6045. The New Zealand Dollar fell under renewed pressure after the nation’s economy posted a steep contraction in the second quarter. Statistics New Zealand posted a 0.9% slump in GDP, significantly worse than the anticipated 0.3% fall, reversing the previous quarter’s growth. Disappointing results have fuelled fears over the health of the New Zealand economy and heightened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could turn to further interest rate cuts in the months ahead. This change of sentiment has been a heavy burden on investor confidence, pushing demand away from the Kiwi. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps firming as it consolidates its post-FOMC bounce from multi-year lows. Market players are recalibrating expectations on US monetary policy, and the greenback’s confidence returns following the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy stance. The increasing policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Fed is pressuring the New Zealand Dollar, and it is hard for the pair to establish sustainable support. Market participants are on edge, eyeing future economic data and central bank statements for additional guidance regarding the move of the currency pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is also perched at the key 0.5900 confluence point, where the 200-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally meet. Oscillators on the daily chart have started to turn south, which reflects increasing bearish pressure. A clean break below this level may fuel the decline towards the 0.5875 and 0.5835 supports, while the upside has key resistance at 0.5935–0.5960, followed by the psychological 0.6000 barrier. FORECAST NZD/USD is still susceptible to weakness as poor local growth numbers and heightened RBNZ rate-cut expectations bear down on the Kiwi. A clear fall below the 0.5900 support level may open the door to further losses, with 0.5875 and 0.5835 serving as critical downside targets. Further descent towards the 0.5800 August swing low cannot be discounted if bearish pressure intensifies. Conversely, if the pair can hold through the 0.5900 level and regain its upward momentum, a rebound towards 0.5935–0.5960 is likely. Persistent strength above these levels would set up a retest of the 0.6000 psychological level. A breach above 0.6000 would send sentiment increasingly positive, clearing the way for further gains towards 0.6045 and potentially the 0.6100–0.6120 area.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Loses Ground Prior to US CPI on Back of Fed and RBNZ Rate Projections Clouding the Kiwi

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  • September 11, 2025
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NZD/USD weakened beneath 0.5950 yesterday, easing close to 0.5930 in early European activity as the US Dollar regained poise in advance of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Investors are considering bets on future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with Barclays predicting three 25-bps cuts through the end of the year, versus the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) intention to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5% by 2025 year-end. While additional Fed cuts may help defend the Kiwi, nervousness regarding economic statistics and worldwide growth issues continues to dog the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will closely watch the August CPI data, as it could influence the USD direction and impact NZD/USD volatility. • Market sentiment is focused on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with three 25-bps reductions projected for 2025. • Any updates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding the pace of OCR reductions could affect the Kiwi’s performance. • Signs of New Zealand’s economic weakness or rebound, such as US tariff effects, can influence investor attitudes and the NZD/USD pair. NZD/USD dipped lower to near 0.5930 in early European trades on Thursday as a recovery in the US Dollar weighed ahead of the significant US CPI report for August. Traders are balancing hopes for three possible Federal Reserve rate reductions by the end of 2025, as predicted by Barclays, against Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s strategy to bring down the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% gradually by the end of the year. Unidades. Though chances of Fed easing may favor the Kiwi, continued concerns regarding New Zealand’s recovery and the challenges of global growth, such as from US tariffs, continue to cap upside for the pair. NZD/USD fell to near 0.5930 as the US Dollar gained on the eve of the release of August CPI. Market participants are waiting for Fed rate cuts and RBNZ’s OCR trajectory while cautiousness remains prevailing due to concerns about global growth. • NZD/USD retreated below 0.5950, sliding close to 0.5930 during early European trading. • The US Dollar recovered in anticipation of the release of August US CPI, weighing on the Kiwi. • Barclays is predicting three 25-bps Fed rate cuts within 2025. • Market expectations of Fed easing have increased following a softer-than-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. • RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby expects the OCR to decline to 2.5% by the end of the year. • The timing of RBNZ rate cuts will be data- and recovery-dependent. • Global growth fears and US tariff effects can persist to drive NZD/USD volatility. NZD/USD is coming under pressure as markets prepare for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Investor sentiment is being driven by hopes of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Barclays seeing three 25-basis-point cuts through the end of 2025. The latest soft US Nonfarm Payrolls print has only added to speculation of Fed easing, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has also indicated a steady cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5% by the end of the year. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby emphasized that how quickly the rate cutting will proceed hinges on new data and the overall health of New Zealand’s economic upturn. Policymakers are paying attention to global trends in growth and US tariffs affecting local businesses, which may have a bearing on future policy settings. Market participants are still careful, watching both US and New Zealand data keenly to gauge the wider prospects for the Kiwi and international financial markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is exhibiting a reluctant downward bias as it hovers below the 0.5950 mark, with short-term support around 0.5925. Resistance should be found around 0.5965–0.5980, where intraday highs in recent sessions have been halted. Mild bearish pressure is indicated by momentum indicators, while moving averages are converging, pointing toward potential consolidation on the horizon. Buyers and sellers alike might look for a decisive break above resistance or below support to indicate the direction of the next move, especially in response to Friday’s upcoming US CPI figures. FORECAST In the event that NZD/USD picks up, a higher Kiwi could drive the pair to the 0.5965–0.5980 resistance area. Better-than-expected New Zealand economic data or below-forecast US CPI inflation would be needed to attract risk appetite and trigger further upside momentum. A break through key levels of resistance might set the path towards 0.6000, drawing short-term traders wanting to take advantage of a reversal. On the negative side, fresh US Dollar strength or weak New Zealand economic data might pull NZD/USD down to the 0.5925 support level. Any indications of slower-than-anticipated New Zealand recovery or increased world growth fears might add bearish momentum. A break of support might speed the fall further to 0.5900, dictating caution among traders and investors in the short term.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Dollar Rises as Investors Look to US NFP Data and Fed Rate Cut Prospects

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  • September 5, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tops its counterparts on Friday, driving NZD/USD to the vicinity of 0.5870 before closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The risk-on market sentiment, underpinned by surging S&P 500 futures, fuels demand for the Kiwi, with the US Dollar experiencing selling pressure. Investors anticipate the NFP report to indicate modest job growth and a minor rise in unemployment, confirming market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Technical indicators, however, reveal conflicting momentum, with significant resistance around 0.5887 and risk of downside to 0.5800 if bearish indications intensify. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to indicate 75K job additions and unemployment at 4.3%. • Weaker labor statistics may support bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. • Higher S&P 500 futures reflect better risk appetite among investors, which supports the New Zealand Dollar. • Strong resistance is around the 20-day EMA at 0.5887 and support at 0.5800 and lower at 0.5730. The New Zealand Dollar rises against the US Dollar today, with NZD/USD trading at around 0.5870 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls releases. Market sentiment is still risk-on thanks to elevated S&P 500 futures, supporting demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. Meanwhile, the US Dollar loses strength ahead of labor market data set to reflect moderate job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, which is supporting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The technical indicators reflect mixed momentum, with resistance at 0.5887 and major support at 0.5800. NZD/USD tests around 0.5870 as the Kiwi leads peers prior to US NFP figures. Risk-on market sentiment and expectations of Fed rate cuts bear on the US Dollar. The key levels to monitor are resistance at 0.5887 and support at 0.5800. • NZD/USD rises to 0.5870 as the New Zealand Dollar leads peers in Friday’s European session. • Risk-on sentiment fuels demand for the Kiwi amid a rise in S&P 500 futures. • US Dollar inches lower before the release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls data, due at 12:30 GMT. • NFP anticipated at 75K job addition, with the Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 4.3%. • Fed rate cut expectations firm up, with markets heavily expecting a policy loosening this month. • Technical resistance anticipated around the 20-day EMA at 0.5887, while RSI remains around 40.00. • Major downside levels are 0.5800, 0.5730, and the psychological support level at 0.5700, with upside potential above 0.6000. The New Zealand Dollar picked up speed on Friday, with NZD/USD rising as investors turned positive ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Increased risk-on sentiment, underscored by gains in S&P 500 futures, fueled demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi Dollar. In contrast, the US Dollar weakened as market players prepared for new labor market data that could inform expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Friday’s release of NFP is expected to indicate modest growth in jobs accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment, which, if materializes, can further bolster the argument for a rate cut by the Fed during this month. The investors are keenly focused on these announcements because the US labor market statistics will probably determine the mood of the markets and monetary policy path in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is meeting resistance close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.5887, which continues to dictate the ceiling to rising moves. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 40.00, indicating declining bullish power and the danger of new bearish pressure if it continues to decline. On the contrary, a drop below the level of 0.5800 would leave the pair vulnerable to April’s low of 0.5730 as well as the psychological support at 0.5700, and on the flip side, a clear break above 0.6000 would leave the door open for gains to 0.6040 and 0.6100. FORECAST If NZD/USD is able to hold above the 0.5870 levels and cross the psychological level of 0.6000, the pair may pick up bullish momentum. This would hopefully invite fresh buying and set the stage towards June 19 high of 0.6040 and beyond to the September 11 low of 0.6100. A favorable risk-on sentiment and increasing Fed rate cut expectations would prove crucial in triggering this upside action. Conversely, a failure to maintain above near-term support levels could leave the Kiwi vulnerable to further selling pressure. A fall below the Aug 2 low of 0.5800 would indicate further frailty, clearing the way down to April’s low of 0.5730 and the key round-figure support at 0.5700. Stronger-than-anticipated US labour market statistics may drive a USD recovery, suppressing the NZD/USD pair.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Hits Four-Month Lows at 0.5800 as Markets Await Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

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  • August 22, 2025
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New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its losing streak for the fifth consecutive session, dropping to a four-month low of near 0.5800 against the US Dollar prior to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The Kiwi continues to come under pressure following the dovish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier this week, while the US Dollar is supported by safe-haven demand and hopes of hawkish policy cues. Market participants are wary, but a break below 0.5800 for an extended period is viewed as a catalyst for further losses, despite the oversold conditions hinting at the possibility of a short-term bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets wait with bated breath for policy signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and hawkish comments will send the US Dollar higher again. • The recent 25 bps OCR reduction and dovish split voting keep weighing on the Kiwi, setting up higher expectations for further easing to come. • Support is at 0.5800 immediately, with greater risk of downside to 0.5765 should it break, and resistance at 0.5835–0.5870. • Risk-off sentiment and safe-haven demand for the US Dollar can continue to weigh on NZD/USD in the short term. NZD/USD declined to the 0.5800 level, a four-month low, as investors grew cautious before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much-awaited speech in Jackson Hole. The duo is under pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish rate cut late in the week, which boosted expectations of more monetary easing, while the US Dollar remains buoyant on safe-haven buying. Market attention now is on comments by Powell, with hawkish messages expected to push the pair down to the next support level of 0.5765, although oversold levels could curb further decline in the short term. NZD/USD fell to 0.5800, four-month low, as risk appetite continues to be weak in anticipation of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The Kiwi remains vulnerable to the dovish tilt by the RBNZ, while the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. • NZD/USD fell to 0.5800, the lowest since mid-April. • The pair is set to post a nearly 2% weekly loss. • Pre-Powell’s Jackson Hole risk-averse sentiment is supporting the US Dollar. • A dovish tone is suppressing the Kiwi after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced the OCR by 25 bps to 3%. • Technical analysis pinpoints 0.5800 as key support, with more downside to 0.5765 if breached. • High resistance at 0.5835 and 0.5870 now caps potential rebounds. • Overbought conditions indicate a potential short-term rebound, although general sentiment is still bearish. The New Zealand Dollar is still under intense pressure as investors respond to changing global monetary policies and increasing uncertainty in financial markets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate reduction by 25 basis points this week has cemented a dovish tone, with policymakers indicating room for additional easing in the future. The action has eroded confidence in the Kiwi, with traders still expecting weakening domestic growth and softer labor market conditions. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar is getting support from risk aversion and investor hesitancy before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole. Markets are closely monitoring for any signal on the Fed’s future actions, with the chance of hawkish comments to support the Dollar’s superiority. Joined with the ongoing international economic worries, the defensive sentiment has left the New Zealand Dollar fighting to find buyers, underpinning the general spread of central bank divergences. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is at the level of critical support of 0.5800, a breakdown below which could pave the way toward the next bearish target of 0.5765. Although the pair is still oversold following the last few days of straight decline, support levels are limited to 0.5835 and 0.5870, maintaining the overall bearish stance. The pair needs a clean break above these support points to start a sustained rebound, but as long as the pair is below 0.5870, the downward momentum is likely to prevail. FORECAST In the near term, NZD/USD may experience a limited bounce if oversold levels prompt profit-taking or Powell’s speech provides a dovish surprise. A rally back to 0.5835 and perhaps 0.5870 is feasible, although gains are likely to be limited unless general market sentiment turns positive towards risk assets. Any indications of stabilisation from the RBNZ or positive local data would also support the Kiwi. On the negative side, a convincing break below the 0.5800 level would leave the pair vulnerable to further weakness, with the next substantial support at 0.5765. Powdering hawkish statements by Powell or chronic risk aversion in world markets would drive selling pressure on the Kiwi. If short-term bearish momentum continues, the danger of a lengthy decline towards fresh yearly lows would rise, keeping NZD/USD under bearish dominance in the near future.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Climbs Past 0.5950 as Dovish Fed Outlook and Robust Chinese Trade Figures Support Kiwi

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  • August 8, 2025
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NZD/USD pair jumped above 0.5950 on Friday, continuing its three-day winning streak as dovish Federal Reserve policy expectations and robust Chinese trade figures supported the New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi picked up speed following China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, announcing a greater-than-anticipated trade surplus in July and support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation expectations. Market mood was again boosted by increasing speculation of a September 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 93% chance. Though, upside potential is still contained with worries regarding the economic cost of newly implemented 15% US tariffs on New Zealand exports. KEY LOOKOUTS  • Pair continues three-day win streak on dovish Fed view and robust Chinese trade surplus. • Statistics favor Kiwi despite weaker 12-month and two-year forecasts. • CME FedWatch indicates 93% chance of 25 September bps reduction, sharply up from last week. • New 15% US tariff on New Zealand exports could cap further progress. NZD/USD broke above 0.5950 in Friday’s Asian session, its third day running of gains, as dovish Fed bets and strong Chinese trade figures supported the New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi derived its strength from China’s wider-than-anticipated July trade surplus, in conjunction with dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations data, while softening US labor market readings fueled rumors of a September Fed rate cut. Nonetheless, ongoing concerns over the economic implications of a recently introduced 15% tariff on New Zealand exports to the US may cap the pair’s upward momentum. NZD/USD pushed higher past 0.5950 on the back of robust Chinese trade data and increasing Fed rate cut prospects. Nevertheless, upside could be constrained by the recently imposed 15% US tariff on New Zealand exports. • NZD/USD is trading at 0.5960, extending a three-day winning streak. • Robust Chinese July trade surplus bolsters New Zealand Dollar sentiment. • RBNZ inflation expectations underpin Kiwi despite marginal reductions in outlook. • US Initial Jobless Claims increase to 226K, indicating cooling labor market. • CME FedWatch indicates 93% chance of a September 25 bps Fed rate cut. • Dovish Fed stance further bolsters risk sentiment. • Newly imposed 15% US tariff on NZ exports presents possible economic risks. The New Zealand Dollar found strong support on Friday as positive economic cues from China and dovish expectations for US monetary policy boosted investor confidence. China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, posted a significantly higher trade surplus in July, signaling robust export performance. This, combined with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest inflation expectations data, helped strengthen the Kiwi’s position in the market. The general mood was also supported by increasing speculation that the US Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates from as soon as September, which helped improve overall risk appetite. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The positive mood, however, is balanced by trade-related fears. A 15% tariff on New Zealand goods being shipped to the United States took effect on Thursday, which has sent concerns over its possible effect on the nation’s export-led economy. As the US is one of New Zealand’s major markets for its products, these tariffs might put pressure on some sectors and burden overall growth. Market players now are closely observing forthcoming Chinese inflation numbers for additional indication on regional economic momentum, which might affect both trade flows and currency movements in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is in a bullish mood as it is trading above the pivotal 0.5950 level, boosted by unwavering buying interest in the last three sessions. The pair is trading firmly above its short-term moving averages, reflecting unabated momentum higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in positive territory without yet indicating overbought conditions. A decisive spike above the nearest resistance around 0.5980 may allow for a push toward the 0.6000 psychological level, while initial support is around 0.5920, followed by the 0.5900 area, which may serve as a pivot point should bearish pressure surface. FORECAST Should bullish momentum hold, NZD/USD may drive further towards the 0.5980 resistance point, a sustained break of which would see the psychological 0.6000 level within reach. Encouragement from solid Chinese trade data, along with dovish Fed policy expectations, may supply the necessary tailwind to force the currency higher. Further cues of softening US inflation and weaker labor market data may further boost buying interest and sustain an extended uptrend. Conversely, fresh selling pressure may arise if market attention turns to the bearish economic implications of the newly introduced 15% US tariff on New Zealand exports. A fall below the 0.5920 support point may expose the pair to further losses toward 0.5900 or even 0.5880. Poor Chinese inflation readings or surprising hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve may also bear on the Kiwi, prompting a possible reversal in recent advances.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises Above 0.6000 as New Zealand Trade Surplus Supports Kiwi, Trade on US Dollar Fades on Ceasefire Hopes

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  • June 25, 2025
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NZD/USD pair rose above the 0.6000 level, continuing its successive winning rally for the third consecutive session, supported by New Zealand’s stronger-than-anticipated trade surplus and a weak US Dollar. New Zealand’s trade surplus increased to NZD1,235 million in May, ahead of market expectations and lifting the Kiwi. At the same time, relaxing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and better risk sentiment pressured the safe-haven US Dollar. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at postponing interest rate reductions, market attention was still on favorable trade headlines and Middle Eastern geopolitical news, providing support to the bull trend in NZD/USD. KEY LOOKOUTS • A better-than-anticipated trade surplus of NZD1,235 million for May boosted the Kiwi, indicating strong export performance. • The USD came under pressure as global risk appetite improved with the Iranian-Israel ceasefire. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled rate cuts could be pushed back to Q4, injecting caution among USD traders even though there are inflationary worries. • While tensions were relaxed, uncertainties remain over the sustainability of the ceasefire, keeping markets vigilant for any updates. NZD/USD currency pair was following its rising trend, breaking above the psychological level of 0.6000 due to favorable economic data and a decrease in geopolitical tensions boosting the New Zealand Dollar. New Zealand’s trade surplus in May was higher than anticipated, at NZD1,235 million, which served to enhance investor sentiment towards the Kiwi. Simultaneously, the US Dollar continued to weaken as a result of decreased safe-haven demand after a cease-fire was announced between Iran and Israel. Ignoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding postponing rate cuts till the fourth quarter, overall risk-on sentiment was in favor of the NZD, and hence the pair remained strongly bid in early European trading. NZD/USD climbed over 0.6000, boosted by New Zealand’s higher-than-anticipated trade surplus and improving global risk appetite. The US Dollar continued to be weak with the calming of Middle East tensions and cautious signals from the Fed about future rate cuts. • NZD/USD climbed over 0.6000, its third straight session of gains. • New Zealand’s trade surplus was NZD1,235 million, ahead of the NZD1,060 million anticipated for May. • The exports rose to NZD7.7 billion, while imports rose to NZD6.4 billion, indicating robust trade activity. • The US Dollar was under pressure as safe-haven demand eased amid a reported ceasefire between Iran and Israel. • US Fed Chair Powell hinted that interest rate cuts would be delayed and, most probably, postponed until the fourth quarter. • Market mood strengthened as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East temporarily subsided. • Technical indicators indicate further upside in NZD/USD, with resistance around 0.6075 and support at 0.5980. The New Zealand Dollar picked up momentum following the nation’s announcement of a better-than-projected trade surplus of NZD1,235 million in May. This was due to a resilient economy and good export activity, which reinforced investor appetite. An increase in exports as well as imports reflects a good trade sector, further improving the economic profile of New Zealand. The Kiwi drew purchasing in worldwide currency markets from the positive trend. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, de-escalation in the Middle East was one reason that had helped to shift market mood, lowering demand for classic safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar. The Iran-Israel ceasefire announcement, confirmed by US President Donald Trump, served to help calm nerves and promote risk-taking in all markets. In the meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s reserved approach to cutting interest rates signaled policy restraint, but had little to boost the US Dollar while markets were attentive to geopolitical stability and economic news. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is clinging on above the important psychological level of 0.6000, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. The duo is supported by a rising trendline and is trading well above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, continuing the positive bias. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are also pointing higher but below overbought levels, indicating scope for further appreciation. A break above 0.6030 could pave the way to the next hurdle at 0.6075, while support in the immediate vicinity is at 0.5980. FORECAST If positive risk sentiment continues and the economic momentum of New Zealand keeps going strong, NZD/USD can continue its rally to 0.6075, which is the next significant resistance level. If a break and close above 0.6075 are achieved, the road will be open for a rally to the 0.6120–0.6150 zone, supported by ongoing Kiwi-buying on trade reports and subsequent USD weakness from delayed easing by the Fed. Alternatively, if geopolitical tensions flare up or US economic figures surprise on the higher side—leading to a turnaround in the US Dollar—NZD/USD would retreat towards the 0.5980 support level. A break below 0.5980 would risk further pullbacks to 0.5930 and possibly to the 0.5900 level, where buyers may come in to protect the psychological floor.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Climbs Around 0.6040 as US Tariff Policy Fosters Uncertainty and Undermines Dollar

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  • June 12, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair bounced back to trade around 0.6040 in early European morning on Thursday, driven by the weakness of the US Dollar due to increasing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a seven-week low at about 98.30 after President Donald Trump announced plans to send formal letters to trading partners detailing ultimate trade deals and tariff rates, focusing on those not negotiating in good faith. As the New Zealand Dollar rose against the Greenback, it lagged the other currencies on concerns the US-China trade truce was unsustainable, with China committing to provide rare earth elements and magnets, while the US would slap much higher tariffs in retaliation. KEY LOOKOUTS • President Trump’s decision to submit final trade terms to trading partners is being closely followed by markets, and it could affect global trade and currency movements. • The DXY’s decline to a seven-week low at about 98.30 continues to shape NZD/USD, with more weakness potentially propping up the Kiwi. • There are still concerns about the long-term sustainability of the US-China deal, particularly considering the disparity in tariff levels and trade concessions. • China’s commitment to supply rare earths and magnets could ease some industrial pressures but may also signal deeper geopolitical complexities. NZD/USD pair regained strength and climbed to near 0.6040 as the US Dollar weakened amid rising uncertainty over the United States’ tariff policy. President Trump’s pledge to unilaterally send the last trade deals to non-cooperating trading partners has contributed to market unease, sending the US Dollar Index to a seven-week low near 98.30. Although the New Zealand Dollar found refuge against the Greenback, doubts surrounding the longevity of the US-China trade ceasefire persist, particularly as the agreement significantly tilts US tariff rates and China commits to providing rare earths and magnets. NZD/USD rose close to 0.6040 as the US Dollar struggled in the wake of heightened uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy. President Trump’s move to send concluding trade terms to partners put pressure on the Greenback, with uncertainty still surrounding how long-lasting the US-China trade accord will be. The China supply of rare earths brings some solace but injects uncertainty into long-term trade stability. • NZD/USD appreciates around 0.6040 as the US Dollar loses strength in early European session trading. • US Dollar Index (DXY) falls to a seven-week low around 98.30, indicating growing pressure on the Greenback. • President Trump reveals intentions to submit final trade deals to partners who are not negotiating in good faith. • Market uncertainty increases about the future direction of US tariff policies and possible world trade tensions. • China commits to exporting rare earths and magnets, offering industrial inputs vital for US industry. • Imbalance in tariffs is worrisome, with 55% tariffs imposed by the US against 10% from China, which could put strain on the trade truce. • NZD finds support from USD but trails against other major currencies owing to ongoing trade concerns. The latest updates on US trade policy have been closely followed by global markets. President Donald Trump’s move to proceed with submitting final trade deals to countries not in active talks adds an extra layer of uncertainty to global trade relations. By suggesting fixed terms and tariffs rates without additional negotiations, the US government is indicating a harder line that could actually redefine global trade policies. This step has sent investors into contemplation mode as they determine the potential long-term effects of such one-sided action. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the deal between the US and China, where China agreed to provide rare earth elements and magnets, points to the strategic significance of key resources in trade discussions. Trump’s remarks also emphasized the continued educational and cultural exchanges, with Chinese students still taking up study in the US. While the significant imbalance in tariff levels — with the US charging much higher tariffs — has created concerns over the longevity of this deal and the wider implications for future US-China relations, the changing circumstances continue to shape market mood and global economic expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is stabilizing after the early losses, with the pair near a critical resistance level around 0.6040. If the pair holds above this level, it could open the way for further upside towards the next resistance at 0.6070-0.6100. To the downside, initial support is at 0.6000, followed by firmer support around 0.5970, which has worked as a pivot zone in the past. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD point to a neutral to marginally bullish bias, however, traders are being cautious with constant trade developments. FORECAST If the NZD/USD currency pair is able to hold firm on its upward momentum above the level of 0.6040, it should try to test the subsequent resistance areas of 0.6070 and 0.6100. A continued break above these levels would encourage additional buying pressure and may drive the pair up to the region of 0.6150. Positive news on global trade talks or additional strength in the US Dollar could also contribute to further upside traction. On the flip side, in case the pair is not able to hold above 0.6040, it could come under fresh selling pressure. The first support comes at the 0.6000 psychological mark, followed by more robust support near 0.5970. A fall below these levels would indicate more severe losses, potentially until the 0.5920 level. Any adverse news on trade tensions or better US economic data will bear upon the pair.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Surges Near 0.6050 on Easing US-China Trade Tensions and Strong US Jobs Data

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  • June 9, 2025
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NZD/USD pair surged to near 0.6050, supported by easing trade tensions between the United States and China, as both sides agreed to resume trade negotiations. The New Zealand Dollar strengthened amid a weaker US Dollar, which faced downward pressure partly due to a technical correction. Meanwhile, robust US jobs data for May, including stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls and steady unemployment, tempered expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, limiting the Dollar’s downside. Market watchers also noted forecasts from Citigroup predicting several rate cuts later this year and into early 2026, adding complexity to the currency outlook. KEY LOOKOUTS • Upcoming trade talks in London between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials, which could further ease or escalate trade tensions. •  The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, especially any signals about interest rate cuts or holds in the coming months. • Future US employment reports, including Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data, which will influence Fed rate expectations and USD strength. • Technical price levels around 0.6050 for NZD/USD, which may act as resistance or support depending on market momentum. The NZD/USD pair has gained momentum amid positive developments in the US-China trade relationship, with high-level meetings set to resume negotiations aimed at resolving ongoing disputes. This diplomatic progress, combined with a softer US Dollar influenced by a technical correction and strong US employment data, has boosted the New Zealand Dollar’s appeal. While the robust labor market data suggests the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady in the near term, market expectations for rate cuts later this year keep investors cautious. Overall, the interplay between trade dynamics and monetary policy will be critical in shaping the NZD/USD trajectory in the coming weeks. NZD/USD climbed close to 0.6050, supported by easing US-China trade tensions and a weaker US Dollar. Strong US jobs data tempered expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts, keeping the pair’s outlook balanced. • NZD/USD surged near 0.6050 amid easing US-China trade tensions. • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese officials in London to resume trade talks. • The New Zealand Dollar strengthened as the US Dollar declined partly due to technical correction. • Strong US May jobs data, including 139,000 new Nonfarm Payroll jobs, boosted confidence in the US labor market. • The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2%, with Average Hourly Earnings unchanged at 3.9%. •  Federal Reserve expected to keep rates unchanged in June, but Citigroup forecasts multiple rate cuts starting September 2024. • Future trade negotiations and US employment data remain key factors influencing NZD/USD direction. The NZD/USD currency pair has experienced a notable rise, primarily driven by positive developments in the trade relationship between the United States and China. Recent discussions between the two nations have sparked hopes for a resolution to the ongoing trade dispute, with high-level meetings scheduled to continue efforts toward an agreement. This easing of trade tensions has provided significant support to the New Zealand Dollar, reflecting growing investor confidence in the region’s economic outlook. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US labor market has demonstrated resilience, with May’s employment figures exceeding expectations. This strength in the job market has contributed to a more cautious stance regarding changes to US monetary policy in the near term. Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meetings, forecasts of potential rate cuts later this year add an element of uncertainty. Overall, the combination of improved trade relations and a solid US economy is shaping a complex environment for the NZD/USD pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD’s recent surge toward the 0.6050 level marks a key resistance zone that traders will be watching closely. The pair has recovered from previous losses, supported by bullish momentum and a weakening US Dollar. Moving averages are beginning to align in favor of the bulls, while key support levels near 0.6000 provide a safety net for further upside. However, a sustained break above 0.6050 would be needed to confirm continued strength, whereas failure to hold above this level could see the pair retreat to lower support zones. Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism but highlight the importance of monitoring price action around these critical levels. FORECAST The near-term outlook for NZD/USD appears cautiously optimistic, with the pair likely to test and potentially break above the 0.6050 resistance level if positive momentum from easing US-China trade tensions continues. Further progress in trade negotiations could boost investor confidence and provide additional support to the New Zealand Dollar. Moreover, if the US Dollar remains under pressure due to softer-than-expected economic data or shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the NZD/USD pair may see further gains. Conversely, downside risks remain if trade talks falter or if stronger-than-expected US economic data reinforces the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. In such a scenario, the US Dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on the NZD/USD pair to retreat toward support levels around 0.6000 or lower. Market participants should watch key upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments closely, as these will play a critical role in determining the currency pair’s direction in the medium term.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Poised to Extend Rally Toward 0.6100 on Weak US Data, Bullish Momentum

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  • June 5, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair rallied to a seven-month high at around 0.6055, on the back of widespread strength in the New Zealand Dollar and weakness in the US Dollar despite persisting US-China trade tensions on weak US economic data. The Kiwi remained upbeat despite sustained US-China trade tensions, drawing strength from declining US Treasury yields and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Technically, the pair is close to a bullish breakout through the consolidation range, with leaders such as the 20-day EMA and RSI hinting at upward momentum. A sustained break above 0.6050 might pave the way for a rally towards 0.6100 and further. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A break above this level might initiate bullish momentum towards 0.6100 and 0.6145. •  Any additional softness in US data can boost bets on a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar. •  Escalating tensions might affect risk sentiment and indirectly burden the NZD given New Zealand’s trade relationships with China. •  The bullish flag pattern, increasing 20-day EMA, and RSI above 60.00 all indicate further potential to go higher. NZD/USD pair maintains its rally, hitting a new seven-month high of around 0.6055 as the New Zealand Dollar trounces peers. The strength holds despite persistent US-China trade tensions, demonstrating the Kiwi’s resilience in a world filled with uncertainty. Subpar US economic data, such as weak ADP employment and ISM services data, has weighed on US Treasury yields and stoked hopes for a possible Fed rate reduction, further eroding the US Dollar. Technically, the couple is set to report a bullish break out of its latest consolidation range with momentum indicators such as the RSI and 20-day EMA favoring the move higher. A clean break above 0.6050 could set the stage towards the 0.6100–0.6145 resistance area. NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055 due to US Dollar weakness and healthy Kiwi demand. Bullish technical indications point towards a near-term breakout towards 0.6100. Weak US data and expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to pressure the Greenback. • NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055, propelled by general Kiwi strength. • Weak US economic indicators (ADP jobs, ISM Services) pressure US Treasury yields and the USD. • Speculation of Fed rate cut weighs on the US Dollar Index around 98.60. • US-China trade tensions continue, but the NZD stays resilient to potential threats. • Breakout expected technically, as NZD/USD nears the upper end of a bullish flag pattern. • RSI rises above 60, and the 20-day EMA steepens, indicating bullish momentum. • Next resistance levels are 0.6100 and 0.6145, while major support is at 0.5846. The NZD/USD pair has gained strong traction, reaching a seven-month high as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms amid a backdrop of global uncertainty. Despite ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, the Kiwi has shown resilience, supported by investor confidence in New Zealand’s economic stability. Statements from the previous US President Donald Trump on how hard it is to get a trade deal done with China have raised geopolitical concerns without suppressing demand for the NZD. This level of strength is particularly surprising considering New Zealand’s close economic relationship with China, and it shows the market’s faith in the Kiwi currency. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar is under pressure from soft local economic data. The most recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for May missed expectations, which raised doubts regarding the health of the US labor market and service sector. These reports have resulted in lower US Treasury yields and heightened speculation regarding monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in future meetings. In turn, investors are turning away from the USD, and this provides additional support to NZD/USD appreciation in the larger market environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is showing robust bullish momentum as it nears the upper limit of a Bullish Flag pattern, traditionally a continuation signal that foretells additional upside. The pair has moved out of its range of consolidation between 0.5846 and 0.6024, and this points to the possibility of an extended rally. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pointing higher at 0.5925, supporting the upward trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved past the 60.00 threshold, indicating building buying pressure. In the event that the pair remains above the level of 0.6050, it may reach the next significant resistance points of 0.6100 and 0.6145. FORECAST NZD/USD can see further upside if it continues above the 0.6050 level. A breakout above this level, supported by good technicals and weak US Dollar sentiment, could see the pair towards the next hurdle of 0.6100, then 0.6145. Ongoing weak US economic news, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and calm risk appetite would also see the pair see the bullish path through. Conversely, if NZD/USD cannot maintain a level above the 0.6050 region and comes under renewed pressure from external risk factors—like rising US-China trade tensions or higher-than-expected US data release—the pair may retreat. A fall below the May 12 low of 0.5846 would leave it vulnerable to further downside towards the 0.5800 psychological level, with further support at the April 10 high of 0.5767.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Under Pressure as US-China Trade Tensions Flare and US Dollar Strengthens in Advance of Important US GDP Release

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  • May 29, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair declined to close to 0.5935 in early Asian trading on Thursday under pressure from a stronger US Dollar as well as strengthened US-China trade tensions. The suspension of vital technology sales to China by the Trump administration, as well as strengthened restrictions by China on mineral exports, has increased fears of supply chain disruptions. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 25-basis-point rate reduction last week was partially defused by hints that easing is coming to an end. Contributing to volatility, a US federal court halted Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, further bolstering the US Dollar. Market participants now look to the US Q1 GDP preliminary reading, which can greatly impact the pair’s short-term direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any intensification or relaxation of trade tensions between the US and China would have a major influence on NZD/USD, as New Zealand has a significant trade relationship with China. • The first release of US GDP figures will also be watched closely. A softer-than-anticipated reading can soften the US Dollar and see support for the Kiwi. •   Expectations of future Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts remain subdued. Any shifts in RBNZ tone or policy signals may affect NZD/USD sentiment. •  General strength or weakness of the US Dollar, dependent on items like court decisions regarding tariffs and overall economy data, will remain a fundamental driver for the currency pair. Market players will be paying close attention to a number of factors influencing the near-term direction of NZD/USD. Excluding tensions between the US and China are a key risk, as further escalation may bear down on the New Zealand dollar owing to its trade dependence on China. Another key event is the US Q1 GDP preliminary figure, with the release potentially weakening the US Dollar and providing respite to the Kiwi if softer than anticipated. In turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s conservative approach to further rate reductions implies muted downside from monetary policy, but any change in tone would be able to rapidly influence market sentiment. Lastly, the overall resilience of the US Dollar, driven by legal updates regarding tariffs and economic prints, will remain a significant driver for the direction of the pair. NZD/USD also involve the ongoing US-China trade tensions, which can put pressure on the Kiwi because of New Zealand’s close relationship with China. Market participants are also concerned about the upcoming US Q1 GDP release as weaker-than-expected data can weaken the US Dollar and favor NZD/USD. Moreover, any changes in the RBNZ’s monetary policy expectations and overall US Dollar strength will be key considerations. •  Silver is also fluctuating around the nine-day EMA at around $33.10 and serves as a near-term support. • NZD/USD sagged to around 0.5935 against a stronger US Dollar and escalating US-China trade tensions. • The Trump administration halted US sales of key US technologies to China as a counter-measure to China’s export curbs on minerals. •  New Zealand’s proximity of trade with China exposes the Kiwi to worsening US-China relations. •  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, but suggested easing may be approaching its conclusion. •  Market expectations of another RBNZ rate cut in July have considerably decreased. • A US federal court stopped Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, which strengthened the US Dollar. • Traders look for the US Q1 preliminary GDP figures, which can shape the US Dollar and NZD/USD trend. Escalating tensions between the United States and China have brought uncertainly to New Zealand’s currency, as the nation has strong trade links with China. The recent move by the US government to limit the sale of key technologies to China is in retaliation to China imposing its own export restrictions on vital minerals. This tit-for-tat has made people uncertain about the security of global supply chains and subjected markets tied to both economies to stress. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently cut its official interest rate but signaled that more cuts may not be soon in the offing, which has somewhat comforted investors. On the American side, a federal court temporarily suspended sweeping tariffs drafted by the Trump administration, causing the US Dollar to rally. Going forward, investors are on the lookout for releases of crucial US economic statistics that would determine the direction of both currencies in the weeks ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is facing resistance around the 0.5950 level, where sell pressure has developed, curbing upside strength. The pair’s recent slide towards 0.5935 indicates bearish sentiment building support from a stronger US Dollar. Important support levels to pay attention to are around 0.5900, a breach below which could see the downward move gain momentum. To change the short-term attitude back in favor of the upside, a bounce above 0.5950 would be necessary. Market players will also be keeping a close eye on moving averages and momentum indicators for guidance on the pair’s next move. FORECAST NZD/USD currency pair is able to stay above crucial support levels and the US economic data, especially the soon-to-be-released GDP report, arrives weaker than anticipated, the Kiwi may get some reprieve. Weaker US Dollar due to weak US growth figures would tend to lift demand for the New Zealand currency. Also, any indication that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is approaching the end of its rate-cut cycle would enhance market conviction in the Kiwi to drive a possible rally above resistance levels near 0.5950. On the bearish side, further aggravation of US-China trade tensions could prove significantly bearish for NZD/USD, considering New Zealand’s economic links with China. Additional constraints or retaliatory actions might depress investor sentiment and place bearish pressure on the Kiwi. Additionally, if the US GDP figure comes in stronger than expected or the US Dollar is generally strong as a result of positive economic news or legal decisions, the NZD/USD exchange rate might come up against lower support levels around

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