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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Moves Above 0.6000 Despite Rate Cut Speculation as US Dollar Lags Due to Debt Fears

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  • May 26, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair jumped above 0.6000, hitting new six-month highs around 0.6030 in Asian trading on Monday, even as rate cut speculation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) picks up. The New Zealand dollar strength is being witnessed against the backdrop of ongoing US Dollar weakness due to increasing concerns over the US fiscal deficit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cautioned that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposed by former President Trump would increase the deficit by $3.8 billion via tax loopholes, putting additional pressure on US bond yields and economic prospects. Half of NZIER’s Shadow Board members meanwhile suggest a 25 basis-point OCR cut in the next RBNZ decision, mirroring the nation’s lackluster inflation and weak growth. KEY LOOKOUTS •Markets are keenly observing if the RBNZ will act on NZIER’s suggestion of $25 basis-point rate cut in view of low inflation and sluggish economic growth. •The fate of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate might have a big bearing on the US Dollar, particularly if the estimated $3.8 billion increase in the deficit comes to pass. •Itching US bond yields could continue to prop up borrowing costs, heightening economic uncertainty and affecting currency flows. •Sustained weakness in the US Dollar, underpinned by debt issues, could assist NZD/USD in the near term, particularly if risk appetite remains positive. Investors will need to watch the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy announcement on Wednesday closely, as markets expect a potential 25 basis-point rate reduction in the face of muted inflation and slow growth. Meanwhile, events in regard to ex-President Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” could continue to take a toll on the US Dollar, particularly if the projected $3.8 billion rise in the fiscal deficit actually happens. Increasing US bond yields, driven by deficit worries, may also maintain pressure on the US economy by perpetuating elevated borrowing costs. In summary, NZD/USD is still responsive to changes in monetary policy expectations and investor sentiment risk, which will be major drivers in the near term. The markets are waiting for the RBNZ’s rate decision, with a majority of people expecting a 25 basis-point reduction with dismal growth. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness is sustained by Trump’s proposed bill due to raised deficit concerns, keeping NZD/USD underpinned at six-month highs. •  NZD/USD broke the 0.6000 barrier, reaching a six-month high of about 0.6030 during Asian trading on Monday. •  The New Zealand Dollar firmed even as speculation for an RBNZ rate reduction this week increased. •  Fifty percent of NZIER’s Shadow Board suggested a 25 basis-point cut in OCR, while others proposed a bigger cut or no change. • US Dollar weakness persists amid increasing fears about the US fiscal deficit and economic prospects. • Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” would cost the US $3.8 billion in additional deficit, predicts the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). • Higher US bond yields fueled by deficit worries may prolong high borrowing costs, injecting economic uncertainty. • Short-term market sentiment continues to favor NZD/USD as investors wait for significant monetary policy announcements. New Zealand Dollar continues to strengthen with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forthcoming monetary policy announcement pending. Though certain members of NZIER’s Shadow Board have suggested a rate cut, broader market sentiment and external influences continue to support the NZD. The RBNZ has a difficult call to make as it weighs low inflation with persisting fears of the nation’s lackluster economic growth. While a cut in the rate is an option, the central bank can also opt to stay on the sidelines amid worldwide uncertainties. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar comes under pressure as worries over the nation’s expanding fiscal deficit grow. And former President Donald Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” has come under scrutiny, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating it would increase the national deficit by $3.8 billion. The bill, which contains tax reductions for tipped employees and automobile purchasers, has raised concerns about long-term budgetary pressure. These events are creating uncertainty in US economic prospects, which is affecting global currency flows and favoring stronger performance from such currencies as the NZD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has pierced the important psychological resistance level of 0.6000, which points to positive momentum. The pair is around 0.6030, its highest in six months, which suggests ongoing buying interest. If this rally continues, the next resistance area could be around 0.6060–0.6080. On the negative side, there is immediate support at 0.5970, with further support at 0.5930. Momentum oscillators like RSI are still in bullish territory, which confirms the optimistic short-term view unless there is a drastic reversal in sentiment after the policy decision by the RBNZ. FORECAST If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes a cautious tone or postpones a cut in rates, then the NZD can continue with its bullish trend, taking NZD/USD higher. Further fall in the US Dollar, fueled by fiscal uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment surrounding the US economy, can also help the pair to gain further. If these conditions continue, the pair may test resistance levels around 0.6060 and even move towards 0.6100 in the near future. Improved market sentiment or better-than-expected New Zealand economic data would help the bullish argument further. Conversely, if the RBNZ announces a bigger-than-expected rate cut of more than 25 basis points or a more dovish easing tone, the NZD can become vulnerable. A reversal in the US Dollar, perhaps on the back of better risk appetite or better US economic readings, can also negatively impact the pair. In that case, NZD/USD may come under bear pressure, with early support around 0.5970 and further decline potentially pushing it towards 0.5930 or below. Traders need to keep an eye on changes in global risk sentiment, which has the potential to change the pair’s direction in no time.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Fights Below 0.5900 As PBoC Cuts Rate, US Credit Downgraded

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  • May 20, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair continues to face pressure at the 0.5900 level after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered its one-year Loan Prime Rate by 0.10 percentage point to 3.00% from 3.10%, a move that dented the New Zealand Dollar because of China’s close economic relationship with the latter. While blended Chinese data contributed to market volatility, New Zealand Q1 data revealed the steepest increase in producer prices in close to three years, fueling inflation fears. In contrast, the US Dollar softened following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing federal debt and fiscal difficulties. Market players now look forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision later today. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing market response to the PBoC’s reduction of the Loan Prime Rate and how that affects demand for the New Zealand Dollar, considering the nations’ robust trade relationship. • Look out for news or commentary on domestic inflation, particularly after Q1’s steep increase in producer input and output prices, which may be affecting RBNZ policy expectations. • Market sentiment may change considerably on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s future interest rate decision and guidance, affecting overall risk sentiment and AUD-cross flows. • Keep track of the market’s continuous reaction to Moody’s US credit rating downgrade and how it influences USD strength, Treasury yields, and overall risk appetite. Markets are watching carefully various factors that are affecting the NZD/USD pair. The People’s Bank of China’s recent rate cut still dents the New Zealand Dollar, evidencing the tight trade nexus between the two countries. Locally, New Zealand’s Q1 producer price surge has concerned observers with a possible resurgence in inflation pressures, which would have implications for monetary policy in the future. Also on the radar is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision next week, with a likely cut anticipated even with solid employment figures. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is under pressure after Moody’s downgrade of its credit rating, triggering wider fears about American fiscal stability. NZD/USD is under pressure with China’s rate cut and New Zealand’s renewed inflationary fears. Traders are also awaiting the RBA’s rate decision and the weakening of the US Dollar after Moody’s credit downgrade. • NZD/USD is trading close to 0.5900, still subdued after the PBoC reduced its one-year Loan Prime Rate to 3.00%. •  China policy relaxation puts the New Zealand Dollar under pressure as both nations have robust trade links. • Chinese economic data is mixed, with stronger-than-expected industrial production but soft retail sales. •  New Zealand’s Q1 statistics revealed the steepest increase in producer input and output prices in almost three years, triggering inflation fears. •  Market focus turns to the RBA, due to be cutting interest rates by 25 basis points even after solid jobs data. •  The US Dollar falls after Moody’s lowered the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing increased debt and fiscal issues. •  Broad risk sentiment remains delicate in the face of global rate policy divergence and fiscal policy uncertainty in large economies. New Zealand Dollar continues to be pressured by developments in the global economy, which continue to influence the sentiment of investors. The recent move by China to reduce its one-year Loan Prime Rate is indicative of persistent efforts to spur its economy, which has been reporting mixed signals with higher industrial output but lower retail sales. With New Zealand having a strong trade connection with China, these policy actions always have a major influence on the NZD. And at the same time, domestic inflation worries are re-emerging with the latest figures indicating a significant increase in producer prices—highlighting possible cost pressures within the economy. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView And the general market is absorbing Moody’s downgrade of the credit rating of the United States, a step that mirrors increasing concern about long-term fiscal sustainability. This move, coupled with projections of increasing debt and expanding deficits, has made markets wary globally. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is now catching investors’ attention, with expectations of an indication on how another major regional economy is coping with changing economic conditions. All these events as a whole shape market sentiment and could direct monetary policy expectations in the weeks to come. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is finding it difficult to make a strong move up from the 0.5920 level, indicating sustained resistance at this point. The pair is still trading below major moving averages on the daily chart, signifying a bearish short-term bias. In case of sustained downward pressure, support may be tested in the 0.5860–0.5880 region. In the up direction, a sustained move above 0.5950 would be necessary to show signs of a change in momentum. Technical levels like RSI are still neutral to slightly bearish, mirroring the pair’s guarded tone in the face of general market uncertainty. FORECAST Should market sentiment recover and global risk appetite improve, NZD/USD may recover towards the 0.5950–0.5980 resistance level. Upside surprises in New Zealand’s economic reports, for instance, stronger growth or contained inflation, can also help the Kiwi. In addition, any stabilization or improvement in China’s economy would improve New Zealand’s export prospects and spur bullish pressure in the NZD. A weaker US Dollar due to fears of fiscal health or poor economic data could also further contribute towards an upside move. On the negative side, NZD/USD could see renewed selling pressure if risk appetite weakens or Chinese economic data continues to weaken. A firmer US Dollar, fueled by safe-haven buying or hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, might send the pair down to the 0.5860 support level or lower. Locally, if New Zealand inflation pressures prompt worries about weakening demand or if the Reserve Bank is prudent, the Kiwi might stay on the back foot. Geopolitical tensions or global growth worries might also cap upside potential and predispose towards downside risks.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Advances to Above 0.5950 as US Dollar Weakens Further and US-China Trade Dominates the Narrative

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  • May 5, 2025
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NZD/USD pair continued its bull run during Monday’s Asian trading, moving beyond the 0.5950 level on further weakness in the US Dollar and on increasing US-China trade discussion momentum. Statements from President Trump on possible cuts to tariffs and the continued dialogue over trade added volatility to the market, with even stronger-than-projected US job numbers having little effect on the greenback. In the meantime, expectations of sharper unemployment numbers in New Zealand have driven speculation over additional monetary accommodation by the RBNZ, with a cut of 25 basis points highly anticipated later in the month. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any developments or setbacks in the trade negotiations will have a serious impact on the market mood and the direction of NZD/USD. • An increase in the unemployment level could reinforce anticipation of additional RBNZ monetary easing. • The markets are factoring in a 25 basis point rate cut; even a change in tone or guidance from the central bank has the potential to influence the Kiwi’s appreciation. • Following a robust NFP reading, ongoing weakness in the US Dollar indicates that traders are paying attention to larger macroeconomic indicators and possible Fed policy action. NZD/USD currency pair is building a firm upside momentum, trading around 0.5970 as the US Dollar loses strength with fresh attention being given to US-China trade negotiations and the dovish tone of central banks. President Trump’s comments on the possibility of reducing tariffs and the likelihood of resumed negotiations have strengthened risk appetite, propping up the Kiwi. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching upcoming labor data from New Zealand, with expectations of a higher unemployment rate likely reinforcing forecasts of further monetary easing by the RBNZ. Despite stronger-than-expected US job growth in April, the Dollar remains under pressure, keeping the NZD/USD pair supported for a second consecutive session. NZD/USD hovers around 0.5970 as the US Dollar loses strength on fresh US-China trade hopes. New Zealand’s future labor statistics are in the market’s focus, with hopes of a rate cut from the RBNZ. Even with strong US employment figures, the Kiwi keeps finding support for the second consecutive session. •  NZD/USD hovers around 0.5970, posting gains for the second consecutive session. • US Dollar declines, led by trade uncertainty and dovish policy expectations. • US-China trade talks in the spotlight, with Trump affirming that there are still talks but no meeting with Xi this week. • Trump suggests future tariff cuts, improving market mood and risk assets. •  US Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecasts, but the USD did not rally as broader concerns persist. • New Zealand unemployment likely to rise, boosting chances of RBNZ monetary easing. • Markets already price in a 25 bps RBNZ rate cut, with rates set to bottom at 2.75% by October. New Zealand Dollar is finding steady support as market focus shifts to general economic and geopolitical trends. One driving sentiment is the current US-China trade issue, and President Trump has confirmed negotiations are ongoing, although there are no scheduled direct discussions with Chinese President Xi in the week ahead. His words that he might cut tariffs have provided a welcome note of optimism to the market, particularly for nations such as New Zealand which are so reliant on world trade. At the same time, China’s Commerce Ministry said it is examining an American proposal to resume talks, adding further to the optimism. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Together with the trade story, economic news from the US and New Zealand is driving expectations. While the US posted good job growth in April, worries regarding long-term economic policy and worldwide conditions have left the Dollar under pressure. In New Zealand, forthcoming labor market figures are due to indicate a modest increase in unemployment, supporting the prognosis for additional policy assistance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Markets are already pricing in a rate cut this month, signaling a guarded but defensive climate for the Kiwi. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD continues to display bullish momentum after breaking out above the 0.5950 resistance point and now trading close to 0.5970. This higher motion indicates buyer demand is increasing, fueled by a softer US Dollar and favorable risk environment. The pair could reach the next resistance level at around 0.6000 if it holds above 0.5970. Support is lower in 0.5920, and a break below there could mark a possible halt to the ongoing uptrend. Momentum gauges such as the RSI continue to be positive, supporting the short-term bull bias. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue its advance towards the psychological level of 0.6000, with additional resistance anticipated around 0.6030. Such an advance would be supported by ongoing US Dollar weakness, a breakthrough in US-China trade talks, or a dovish policy change from the Federal Reserve. Also, if New Zealand economic numbers, especially labor market data, arrive better than anticipated, it may restrict the margin for RBNZ easing and provide further encouragement to the Kiwi. Under such circumstances, the pair may keep going up in the short term as buyers drive it in that direction. On the flip side, if upcoming New Zealand labor data shows a significant uptick in unemployment or if risk sentiment deteriorates due to stalled trade talks, NZD/USD could face downward pressure. A drop below the 0.5920 support zone might trigger further selling, potentially pulling the pair toward the next support level around 0.5880. Moreover, any surprise hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve or better-than-anticipated US data could support the Dollar and dampen the NZD. The pair might then find it difficult to sustain its latest bullish trend.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Outlook: Bullish Momentum Aims at 0.6038 Resistance, Support Remains at 0.5929

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  • April 25, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair is presently facing short-term bullish momentum, holding losses under the 0.6000 level. The technical indicators are reflecting a positive bias, and the pair is currently trading above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a possible rebound towards the crucial resistance level of 0.6038, the six-month high. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at levels above 50 also underpins the positive outlook, suggesting a move to the seven-month high of 0.6350 is within reach. Yet, should the price drop below the nine-day EMA line at 0.5929, bearish pressure might be elevated, potentially testing the 50-day EMA at 0.5781, with subsequent losses focusing on the 0.5485 support level. KEY LOOKOUTS • The nine-day EMA at 0.5929 currently supports the NZD/USD pair. A decline below this level may indicate a change towards a bearish trend, and further decline towards the 50-day EMA at 0.5781. • The major resistance level of 0.6038, the six-month high, may be tested as the pair continues to show bullish momentum. A persistent break above it would set the stage for a possible rally to the seven-month high of about 0.6350. •  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is presently well above the 50 level, which means the bullish momentum continues to hold good. An advance towards the 70 level can further reinforce the bullish sentiment and enable a thrust towards higher levels of resistance. •  A continuing decline below the nine-day EMA would undermine the present bullish picture and result in a more significant fall, with 0.5781 and 0.5485 as levels to observe for additional downside potential. NZD/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength, with the price remaining above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5929, indicating the potential for further increase. The most important resistance level to monitor is 0.6038, a six-month high, which would be tested if the upward trend persists. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50 also adds to the optimistic view, and a push towards the seven-month high around 0.6350 is a possibility. Nonetheless, a breach down below the nine-day EMA would indicate a loss of the bullish momentum, leaving way open for further declines with support levels at 0.5781 and 0.5485 in the picture. NZD/USD is displaying short-term bullish momentum, underpinned by the nine-day EMA at 0.5929 and by an RSI in excess of 50, with resistance at 0.6038 in the sights. A break below the EMA may induce a move lower toward support levels at 0.5781 and 0.5485. •  NZD/USD is displaying short-term bullish momentum, retaining support above the nine-day EMA at 0.5929. • The main resistance level is 0.6038, the six-month high, which may be challenged if the up trend persists. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is greater than 50, indicating a positive bias and possibility of further upward movement. • A break above 0.6038 may trigger a run-up to the seven-month high around 0.6350. • The first support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.5929, which is essential to sustain the bullish momentum. • A fall below the nine-day EMA may undermine the short-term bullish outlook and lead to further declines. • Further weakening may drive the pair towards the 50-day EMA of 0.5781 and, if persisted, towards the 0.5485 support level. NZD/USD currency exchange rate is currently displaying a positive trend, with strength as it maintains levels around the 0.5960 point. This is fueled by general market conditions that support the New Zealand Dollar in the near future. As the pair keeps displaying a positive run, it offers potential for the achievement of future gains, particularly with traders watching key price points that could trigger more advancement. The outlook for the pair is also good, and most are focusing on potential areas of resistance to determine how well it can keep going upwards. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the future, the NZD/USD pair will continue to attract attention if it can support itself and maintain its momentum at the moment. Short-term price fluctuations are natural in the market, but generally, the tone is upbeat thanks to robust fundamentals and investor confidence. As the duo advances, focus will be on its capacity to maintain recent gains and possibly test higher levels, which would further cement the bullish expectation for the currency in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is demonstrating short-term bullish momentum, with the price remaining above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5929, reflecting positive price action in the near term. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, also in support of the bullish bias and indicating that the pair may extend its rally. A breakout above the important resistance level at 0.6038 would confirm the continuation of the rally to higher levels, while holding on above the EMA supports the positive sentiment. But any fall below the nine-day EMA might indicate a possible change in trend, and support levels need to be watched closely for further guidance. FORECAST NZD/USD is showing good short-term bullish momentum now, and if it continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it might challenge the critical resistance level at 0.6038. A successful break above this resistance would pave the way for the pair to potentially reach the seven-month high near 0.6350, last seen in October 2024. The prevailing positive market sentiment, supported by the RSI staying above 50, indicates that the pair may continue to gain ground in the near term, challenging higher resistance levels as it maintains upward momentum. On the negative side, a breach below the nine-day EMA at 0.5929 may indicate weakening of the present bullish trend. If the pair cannot maintain above this support level, it may experience further downward pressure to the 50-day EMA at 0.5781. In a more bearish setup, if bears continue to reign, the pair may test deeper support levels near 0.5485, which has not been touched since March 2020. So, a breakdown below the EMA would have alarms ringing about further depreciation, and traders

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Remains Close to Five-Month Highs Due to US Trade Policy Uncertainty and RBNZ Easing Hopes

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  • April 18, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues near its five-month highs, trading around 0.5970, as investors pay close attention to US trade policy developments, especially given New Zealand’s substantial export relations with China. In spite of a recent surge, the New Zealand Dollar is rangebound due to anticipation of additional monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which is expected to reduce rates in May. US trade tensions and the fear of the economic effects of tariffs on China have seen a weakening US Dollar, driving the NZD higher. At the same time, US economic indicators revealed a drop in initial jobless claims, but an increase in continuing claims, further affecting market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any change in US trade policy, particularly with regards to tariffs on China, could have a major impact on the NZD/USD pair. With New Zealand having a strong export relationship with China, any increase or decrease in trade tensions will be closely monitored. • Hopes of further monetary easing from the RBNZ, potentially in the form of a May rate cut, may bear down on the New Zealand Dollar. Traders will monitor any official commentary or economic releases that signal the central bank’s next action. • Ongoing economic metrics, specifically labor market indicators such as jobless claims, will give indications of the strength of the US economy. A softer-than-anticipated US economy might add extra pressure on the US Dollar and give extra room for NZD upside. • In light of prevailing market volatilities, any shift in global risk sentiment, for example, fears surrounding the economic impacts of US tariffs or geopolitical pressures, may impact investor demand for riskier currencies such as the NZD. NZD/USD pair remains close to five-month highs at about 0.5970 as investors continue to watch events regarding US trade policy and their potential implications on New Zealand’s economy. The attention of the market is centered around US-China trade tensions, considering that New Zealand has a huge export relationship with China. The New Zealand Dollar is also under pressure due to anticipation of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and an anticipated rate cut in May. The US Dollar has been on the back foot with worries regarding the economic impact of tariffs and recent US labor market statistics, indicating a reduction in initial jobless claims but an upsurge in continuing claims, contributing to the uncertainty. As volume has been sparse to date given the Good Friday holiday, NZD/USD will likely realize higher levels should the US Dollar soften further but there is a great deal hanging on the further progression of trade policy and the unfolding of economic fundamentals in the days ahead. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to trade close to its five-month highs around 0.5970 as concerns over US trade policy rise and anticipation of further monetary relaxation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand grows. The New Zealand Dollar is bolstered by a weaker US Dollar as trade tensions and economic indicators continue to affect market sentiment. • The NZD/USD currency pair is trading close to its five-month high, at 0.5970, following seven consecutive days of increases. • Market participants are keenly observing US trade policy news, especially with regards to China, since New Zealand’s economy is greatly dependent on exports to China. • US-China trade tensions may impact the NZD/USD pair, particularly following US President Trump’s statement regarding the possibility of not imposing additional higher tariffs on China. •  Recent US economic statistics, such as a fall in initial jobless claims and a rise in continuing claims, are influencing market sentiment and supporting a weaker USD. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to further ease monetary policy, with markets already pricing in a rate cut in May, which may pressure the NZD. • The US Dollar has weakened on fears over the economic consequences of tariffs, offering a chance for the NZD to firm up. • Volumes in trading are bound to be light because of the Good Friday holiday, which might result in lesser market volatility in the short term. NZD/USD currency pair is trading around its five-month highs as of now, indicating a spell of relative stability in spite of continued global uncertainty. Investors are especially interested in the evolution of US trade policy, with keen interest in the possible effects of trade relations between the US and China, in light of New Zealand’s high export connections with its biggest trading partner. While the New Zealand Dollar has been able to remain robust, much of its movement is influenced by external forces, including changes in US economic strategy and general market sentiment. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, sentiment around the monetary policy moves by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is shaping the outlook for the New Zealand Dollar. With inflation remaining within the target band for the central bank, there is speculation that more easing measures might be in store. This interplay, together with a normally subdued trading session on account of the Good Friday holiday, indicates that while there is conservative optimism surrounding the NZD, its future directions will be greatly dependent on both global trade evolution and domestic economic choices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD pair is testing resistance around the five-month high of 0.5979, and it looks promising to see further potential for upside if the price can continue above this point. The pair has been exhibiting steady upward motion during the last week, with gains for seven straight days, which may be a sign of a bullish trend. Yet, as the pair lingers around crucial resistance, the traders will keenly observe for a breakout or a pullback. Support levels at 0.5900 may serve as a cushion on a reversal, while any change in market mood, especially in relation to US trade policy or the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy direction, may drive the pair in the short term. FORECAST NZD/USD pair may experience additional upside if the US

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Stabilises, To Consolidate Between 0.5540 and 0.5760 – UOB Group

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  • April 10, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stabilised against the US Dollar (USD), FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of UOB Group report. After a brief fall to 0.5485, the NZD rallied sharply, ending stronger at 0.5650—a strong intraday gain. This move, particularly the break above the strong resistance level of 0.5650, suggests that the recent downtrend in NZD might have ended. Short term, the NZD/USD pair will test 0.5695, with consolidation expected in the wider range of 0.5540 to 0.5760. KEY LOOKOUTS •  NZD/USD may probe the 0.5695 level in the near term, as long as it remains above minor support at 0.5620 and key support at 0.5580. •  Although upside momentum is increasing, the major resistance level at 0.5760 is unlikely to be tested in the near term. •  The steep reversal and break above 0.5650 signal that recent NZD weakness has most probably stabilised and the outlook has turned from bearish to neutral. •  In the next 1–3 weeks, NZD/USD should consolidate between the 0.5540–0.5760 levels as market sentiment comes back into equilibrium. NZD/USD has turned as recent price action indicates that New Zealand Dollar weakness has stabilized. After dipping to 0.5485, the pair snapped back strongly and cleared the major resistance level at 0.5650, marking the end of the bear trend. The NZD is now expected by UOB Group analysts to range in a clear area of 0.5540 to 0.5760 in the short term. A 0.5695 test is on the cards if the currency remains above 0.5580, though a break through key resistance at 0.5760 is not expected in the short term. The New Zealand Dollar has probably settled versus the US Dollar, with NZD/USD likely to trade in the 0.5540-0.5760 range. A near-term 0.5695 test is on the cards if support at 0.5580 is maintained, though a break above 0.5760 is still not expected just yet. • The recent NZD/USD rebound indicates the earlier weakness is most likely stabilised. • NZD rose from the low point of 0.5485 to close strongly higher at 0.5650, rising 2.07% in a day. • The pair broke above strong resistance point of 0.5650, which is indicative of a change in short-term momentum. • NZD/USD can test 0.5695 if it holds above 0.5580. • Important support points to observe are at 0.5580 and 0.5620. • NZD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 over the next few days and weeks. • In spite of recent strength, the key resistance at 0.5760 is unlikely to be broken in the near future. The New Zealand Dollar seems to have returned to stability following a volatile period, indicating a more stable phase in its performance. This is a welcome relief for traders and market observers who have tracked the currency’s recent fluctuations. Analysts at UOB Group believe that the current market sentiment regarding NZD has moved from bearish to neutral, with indications favoring a consolidation phase instead of sustained volatility. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView This change in tone implies that the wider market will now turn attention to other drivers such as economic data releases, global risk appetite, and central bank commentary. The removal of pressure on the NZD creates room for investors to reconsider their strategy and projections without the initial pressure of wild volatility. On balance, the environment is more neutral, and the currency is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has made a strong recovery after it temporarily touched 0.5485, crossing above the significant resistance level at 0.5650. Such a breakout points to a possible change in momentum, meaning that the recent downtrend is likely over. The pair would now consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760, with weak support at 0.5580 and 0.5620. A short-term test of 0.5695 is conceivable if the levels of support are maintained, but the key resistance of 0.5760 will not be tested unless greater bullish momentum arises. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue to push higher moderately, particularly if it can find support just above 0.5580. The pair would move towards the next target of 0.5695 with the help of better market sentiment and technical support. With sustained buying interest, the higher end of the prevailing consolidation range at 0.5760 could be in view, although it should serve as a robust resistance in the short term. On the flip side, if NZD/USD fails to hold above 0.5580, it might unleash fresh selling pressure. Breaking below this level can drive the pair towards 0.5540, the lower boundary of the anticipated consolidation zone. Although the prior low of 0.5485 holds firm for the time being, any persistent weakness can re-open the way towards the crucial support level at 0.5450, which was recently a key level to monitor.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Suffers as Fed is Cautious and Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Can China’s Stimulus Rescue the Kiwi?

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  • March 21, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues to suffer from downward pressure for a third consecutive session as slight US Dollar strength takes its toll on the Kiwi. The Federal Reserve’s position of offering no more than two rate cuts this year, together with continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, has contributed to safe-haven flows towards the Greenback. Though these forces temper the NZD’s outlook, positives surrounding China’s latest stimulus efforts provide some respite to the antipodean currency. Still, without high-profile US economic data releases, traders might still be cautious, waiting for more definitive signals before establishing a reversal in the NZD/USD trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar continues to be supported as markets absorb the Fed’s expectation of just two rate reductions by year-end. • Safe-haven demand for the Greenback continues to be fueled by ongoing Middle East conflicts and Russia-Ukraine war, putting pressure on NZD. • Hopes for China’s recent stimulus efforts may provide near-term support to the Kiwi and other antipodean currencies. • Weak US economic data may result in defensive trading, with investors waiting for a clear trend reversal in NZD/USD. The NZD/USD currency pair is under pressure against a mildly firm US Dollar, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach towards interest rate reductions and persistent geopolitical tensions. The safe-haven demand for the Greenback is supported by ambiguity over global wars, especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, hope over China’s newly proposed stimulus packages provides a possible safety net for the New Zealand Dollar, capping further losses. Without major US economic data, market players will resort to a wait-and-see strategy, awaiting clearer signs before affirming a directional change in the NZD/USD trend. NZD/USD continues to struggle for the third consecutive day against the backdrop of modest USD appreciation and increasing geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, China’s stimulus optimism might serve to confine losses for the Kiwi to a smaller extent. Traders now look for clearer signs before affirming any significant trend change. • NZD/USD is down for the third day in a row, showing ongoing Kiwi weakness in the face of moderate US Dollar firmness. • The Greenback takes support from the Fed estimating only two 25 bps interest rate reductions by the end of the year, enhancing safe-haven demand. • Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks regarding slowed inflation gains and retaliation tariff fears further buoy the Greenback. • Middle East geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain key drivers of demand for the safe-haven USD. • Recent stimulus in China provides some resilience to the New Zealand Dollar, preventing deep declines. • Traders’ restraint due to absence of key US economic data releases keeps them in wait-and-watch mode for more robust cues to take aggressive positions. • Sentiment in markets remains contradictory, with USD strength potential limited by fears of tariff-induced US economic slowdown. The NZD/USD currency pair remains under pressure as general economic and geopolitical considerations shape market sentiment. The US Dollar is supported by the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance towards interest rate reductions, with policymakers only forecasting two cuts this year. Further, comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on potential delays in meeting inflation targets due to global tariff retaliation have contributed to the Greenback’s strength. Meanwhile, continued geopolitical tensions, including Middle East tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, have increased the need for secure assets such as the US Dollar. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, some of the New Zealand Dollar’s positive momentum is coming from China’s newly announced economic stimulus policies. As a key trading partner for New Zealand, China’s economic outlook plays a crucial role in shaping the Kiwi’s performance. The stimulus efforts are expected to boost economic activity, indirectly benefiting export-driven economies like New Zealand. While these global dynamics continue to unfold, traders are closely monitoring market developments, waiting for stronger signals to determine the long-term direction of the currency pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is appearing to suffer from chronic weakness as it is not able to maintain above crucial levels of support, and new selling pressure is seen near the mid-0.5700s. The pair’s failure to hold a bounce back from the 0.5720–0.5725 area indicates that downward momentum is still intact. The markets are eagerly observing for a firm break below this area of support, which might pave the way for more downside. However, any attempt to recover is threatened by the prospects of sellers cropping up in the 0.5780–0.5800 area, unless there’s a very good bullish stimulus shifting sentiment. FORECAST Any shift in the sentiment towards the riskier assets or a decline in the strength of the US Dollar as a result of the dovish inputs from the Fed or disappointing economic reports might result in NZD/USD recovering. A continued advance past the 0.5780–0.5800 resistance level might indicate fresh buying interest and carry the pair toward the next resistance around 0.5840. Improved Chinese economic news or better-than-anticipated New Zealand data might serve as a further catalyst for further pair upside action. On the negative side, sustained US Dollar strength, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or poor market confidence may continue to keep the NZD under strain. A fall below the 0.5720 support level may initiate further losses, setting the stage for a drop towards the 0.5670–0.5650 area. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair may even test lower levels not witnessed in recent months, supporting the bearish outlook unless backed by new fundamental triggers.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises to Two-Month High: Weaker US Dollar and Optimism in Markets Fuel Gains

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  • February 17, 2025
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NZD/USD is on its third day of rise, hitting a two-month high of about 0.5750 as the US Dollar stays weak. The Greenback continues to face pressure following weak US Retail Sales data and a delay in Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, which have weakened investor mood. Meanwhile, hope for Trump’s strategy to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis contributes to the risk-on atmosphere, further backing the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and the anticipation of a major rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may limit further increases. Technically, last week’s break above 0.5700 reinforces the bullish scenario, and any short-term corrections offer a chance to buy on the cheap before the key RBNZ meeting. KEY LOOKOUTS        • The US Dollar is still under pressure from dismal Retail Sales and a hold-up in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, solidifying NZD/USD advances. • Optimism over Trump’s suggested solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosts market mood, giving strength to the Kiwi against the Greenback. • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive tone is counter to hopes of a large rate cut by the RBNZ, which could limit NZD/USD’s rally. • Last week’s break above the 0.5700 level adds to bullish momentum, setting NZD/USD up for further gains unless market conditions turn unexpectedly. NZD/USD gains momentum, rising to a two-month high with the US Dollar weakening in the face of soft Retail Sales and the hold-up of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The pair gets support from upbeat market mood following the hopes over Trump’s efforts in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, the widening gap between the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s planned rate reductions might cap additional gains. Technically, the break higher last week above 0.5700 supports a bullish view, and any near-term pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity prior to the important RBNZ meeting. NZD/USD rises to a two-month peak on back of persistent USD weakness and improved market mood. Yet Fed-RBNZ policy divergence could restrict further upside scope. • The pair maintains its upward momentum to around 0.5750 in the wake of persistent USD weakness. • Frustrating US retail sales and delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain to keep Greenback under the pump. • Positive sentiment with respect to how Trump is containing the Russia-Ukraine war bolsters NZD/USD’s strength. • The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve in comparison to hoped-for major cut by the RBNZ later can limit NZD/USD’s gains. • Last week’s break higher past the level of 0.5700 maintains the upside story for NZD/USD. • Any near-term correction would be a buying opportunity before the key RBNZ meeting. • The RBNZ meeting and additional US economic data releases will determine NZD/USD’s next direction. NZD/USD continues its bullish trend after breaching the key 0.5700 resistance level, reaffirming a strong bull trend. The breakout indicates additional upside potential, with the next target at 0.5800. The duo is still comfortably above major moving averages, indicating persistent buying pressure. Moreover, the recent price action also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the bullishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought levels, which may indicate a short-term pullback, but overall, the uptrend is intact as long as the price is above the 0.5700 support level. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA A corrective pullback should find support around 0.5700, a level that was resistance in the past and can now act as a solid floor for buyers. Below this, further support can be found around 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a break above 0.5750 should see further buying, driving the pair to 0.5800 and beyond. However, traders should exercise caution as the upcoming RBNZ meeting could introduce volatility, potentially influencing the Kiwi’s trajectory. Overall, the technical outlook favors the bulls, but market participants should watch for any fundamental shifts that could alter the trend. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has strengthened its bullish outlook after breaking above the key 0.5700 resistance level last week. This breakout indicates strong buying momentum, with the next potential upside target around 0.5800. The duo is trading above significant moving averages, maintaining a bullish inclination, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around overbought levels, which may result in a short-term correction. But any correction will find support at 0.5700, which has become a critical support level. Further appreciation will be seen if buyers continue to drive the prices higher, but care is to be exercised before the RBNZ meeting, which may create volatility. FORECAST NZD/USD’s recent break above the 0.5700 resistance line is a bullish indication of firm buying pressure, and there could be more to go if such momentum is maintained. A strong continuation above 0.5750 could open the door to testing the psychological level of 0.5800, which will serve as the next hurdle. If the bullish trend continues, the pair may even push higher to 0.5850, particularly if the US Dollar stays soft in the wake of softer economic information or a dovish Fed prognosis. Favorable risk attitudes and optimism over developments in geopolitics would also play in favor of the Kiwi, further augmenting its strength against the Greenback in the near term. In spite of the bullish inclination, NZD/USD is still susceptible to possible pullbacks, particularly if the next RBNZ meeting indicates aggressive rate cuts, which would soften the Kiwi. A breakdown below the 0.5700 support level may initiate a more significant correction, with the next significant support at 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. If selling pressure increases, the pair may fall towards 0.5600, where buyers might try to stem further losses. Furthermore, any US Dollar rebound, as a result of hawkish Fed statements or more robust than anticipated economic numbers, may cap NZD/USD’s upside and reverse momentum in favor of the bears.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Key Technical Levels and Market Sentiment Analysis

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  • February 11, 2025
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The NZD/USD pair is consolidating around the 0.5650 level, with immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI is still below the 50 level, which indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. A break below 0.5650 may push the pair toward the lower boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5550, with further support at 0.5516. Conversely, in the event that the pair breaks below 0.5654, it could be on its way to rallying and trying to reach its nine-week high at 0.5794 and psychological resistance at 0.5800. The technical structure calls for the fight between the bulls and the bears, with the next direction dependent on some key support and resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breach of this level could now heighten the pressure on the bears, and NZD/USD now drops toward 0.5550 then critical support at 0.5516. • The pair, above this level, could intensify short-term bullish momentum towards the 0.5794 high and psychological resistance at 0.5800. • The 14-day RSI remains below 50, meaning the buying momentum is weak, and the odds are in favor of a lower movement unless sentiment improves. • The pair is within a well-defined range. A breakout in either direction can determine the next significant trend for NZD/USD. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading through a critical area and finds immediate support near 0.5650 with resistance to the nine-day EMA at 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 will increase the bears’ pressure, send the pair to the 0.5550 region and down towards 0.5516, low since October 2022. On the upside, overcoming the hurdle at 0.5654 will boost the bulls for further moves till 0.5794 and then on to the psychological level of 0.5800. Signs. The 14-day RSI remains below 50, showing weak buying pressure, while the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern, which would be an indecisive market awaiting a breakout to determine which way the next major move is. The NZD/USD pair hovers around 0.5650, facing immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 could trigger a decline toward 0.5550, while a move above 0.5654 may strengthen bullish momentum toward 0.5794. The 14-day RSI below 50 suggests a bearish bias as the pair consolidates within a rectangular pattern. • A clear break below this level is likely to send NZD/USD to 0.5550 and potentially beyond that to the lowest level since October 2022, 0.5516. • On a break above this level, bullish short-term momentum is likely to gain strength, taking the cable toward 0.5794 and later to the psychological point of 0.5800. • Relative Strength Index is still below the 50 mark, confirming low selling pressure and thus high selling bias. • The pair breaks within a range, and a breakout in either direction could determine the next major trend for NZD/USD • If bullish momentum drives on, the next target is 0.5794, then 0.5800 and the top of the rectangle at 0.5810 • Aggressive move below the lower threshold of 0.5650 could lead to increased selling, strengthening bearish sentiment and increasing losses toward the lower support zones. • Both buyers and sellers are in limbo, with the price direction dependent on the breakout from this consolidation stage. The NZD/USD pair is at a crucial juncture, testing immediate support at 0.5650 while facing resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI has yet to cross above the 50 level, keeping the selling pressure bias with weak buying pressure. If it breaks below 0.5650, the pair might continue south toward 0.5550, then lock into a critical support area at 0.5516, which also happens to be its nadir since October 2022. Alternatively, a successful breakout above 0.5654 could propel the market into the hands of buyers and unlock the way to 0.5794, then on to the psychological resistance at 0.5800. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The range-bound situation between the two remains within a rectangle, hinting that long-term direction for market participants remains ambiguous. An exit from the rectangle will probably be the onset of the new trend, upward would indicate more renewed strength while downward would point towards further downsides. Trades must keep watch at the main levels as it can break strongly in either side, which could signal the direction for the coming movement of NZD/USD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD maintains a rectangular kind of consolidation showing indecision. The immediate resistance is the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.5654; the support region is at the 0.5650 levels. The relative strength index over 14 periods is below the 50 points, indicating there is weak purchasing pressure and strong selling pressure. A drop below 0.5650 could add pace to a fall toward 0.5550 and 0.5516, but a move above 0.5654 may push the upside toward 0.5794 and the psychological resistance at 0.5800. Given the price action is being confined to a limited range, the breakout will be a decisive move in determining the next trend direction. FORECAST NZD/USD managed to break above the nine-day EMA at 0.5654 and could have enough bullish momentum to rally towards 0.5794, which is the nine-week high that NZD/USD recently made. A strong move above this level could send the pair towards the psychological resistance at 0.5800 and then to the upper boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5810. A bullish breakout of this consolidation pattern could spur a trend reversal that attracts higher buyers and strengthens the uptrend even more. However, for consistent upside drive, the pair would require healthy fundamental support, such as positive economic data from New Zealand or a weakening U.S. dollar. On the opposite side of the fence, if NZD/USD fails to hold above the base level support at 0.5650, then bearish pressure could potentially strengthen and push it towards 0.5550. A deeper drop from here would push the pair into further losses, with the next significant stop at 0.5516 – the lowest level since October 2022. A bearish breakdown of the current rectangular pattern can trigger a selling pressure increase if global

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Steady around 0.5700, Traders Keep an Eye on US NFP and Fed Policy Cues

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  • February 7, 2025
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NZD/USD stays firm around 0.5700 as market players remain cautious of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release which is expected to have an influence on the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar keeps up its rebound momentum with support coming from a jump in Treasury yields, pushing the Dollar Index DXY toward 107.70. Market sentiment is fragile due to rising risk aversion with all these uncertainties about global trade. But ongoing discussions about tariffs by US and China could offer some comfort. Further, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to slash 50 basis points in February and put further pressure on Kiwi Dollar. KEY LOOKOUTS US Nonfarm Payrolls, which would shape monetary policy at the Fed, would impact the NZD/USD pairs volatility. • The Greenback’s rebounding, with a boost from the Treasury yields and economic data, may put upward pressure on NZD/USD if risk aversion increases. • Markets are pricing in 92% of a 50 basis-point rate cut in February, which can weigh on the New Zealand Dollar. • Risk sentiment may shape the movement of NZD/USD as US and Chinese leaders discuss potential rollbacks of tariffs. NZD/USD remains in a cautious range as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The US Dollar continues to recover, bolstered by rising Treasury yields and stronger economic data, pressuring the Kiwi Dollar. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains fragile with trade uncertainties continuing, though the discussions between the US and China regarding potential rollbacks of tariffs might bring some comfort. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to cut its rates by 50 basis points in February, adding more downside risks to NZD/USD as the market has priced in a high probability of further easing. NZD/USD remains range-bound ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data that may impact the Federal Reserve policy. The greenback has managed to regain ground, buoyed by Treasury yields, and has been exerting pressure on the Kiwi Dollar. Expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in February by the RBNZ are also affecting NZD/USD. • A US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to impact the Fed’s monetary policy and trigger market volatility. • Greenback trades are regaining strength on the back of rising treasury yields with DXY approaching 107.70. • Markets are expecting that in February, there will be a 50-point rate cut; it will give pressure on New Zealand Dollar. • Increased risk aversion due to trade and economic insecurity is impacting upside momentum for NZD/USD pairs. • The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.22% and 4.44%, supporting the US Dollar against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. • Market sentiment and the movement of NZD/USD may be influenced by the discussions between US and Chinese leaders regarding the possible rollbacks of tariffs. • NZD/USD is still relatively subdued following the weak performance of the previous session, failing to gain bullish momentum due to a cautious market outlook. NZD/USD stands at the levels around 0.5700 and is currently flat as participants take a wait-and-see approach before US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) arrives and is known to impact Federal Reserve monetary policy prospects. Meanwhile, the Dollar index continues rallying due to upward momentum in the Treasury yields; it has also pushed the Dollar Index towards levels around 107.70. Risk sentiment remains fragile as the world continues to be uncertain about global trade, especially on the US-China front, though potential tariff rollbacks may help alleviate some of the pain. Moreover, the latest US Initial Jobless Claims were higher than anticipated, which added another layer of uncertainty to the market. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Another reason the Kiwi Dollar is in a tough situation is that it is expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ, will announce a 50 basis point rate cut in February, taking interest rates to 3.75%. With market expectations at a 92% probability of additional monetary easing, NZD/USD may suffer from increased pressure on the downside. The weak price action exhibited by the pair is due to investors waiting for key economic data that will steer short-term price action. US Treasury yields continue to climb, adding further strength to the US Dollar, which restricts NZD/USD’s recovery from the previous session’s losses. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading near 0.5680, unable to make a sustainable rally as it was capped by the resistance area of 0.5700. The pair remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), suggesting a bearish trend. A break below the immediate support at 0.5660 could be extended further lower toward 0.5620. A decisive move above 0.5700 may push the pair further to the next resistance at 0.5745. The RSI is near the neutral 50 level, showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Traders will carefully monitor the US NFP releases for breakouts or further drops in NZD/USD. FORECAST NZD/USD will drop further if NFP data strengthen the case of a hawkish Federal Reserve which pushes the Dollar higher. Higher Treasury yields after a strong job report will add to the views of prolonged periods of higher interest rates, with NZD/USD falling towards key support 0.5660. If the bearish momentum is maintained, the next target could be 0.5620, with further declines towards the psychological level of 0.5600 in an extended selloff. Expectations of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February could keep the Kiwi Dollar under pressure in the near term. On the positive side, if US economic data disappoints and weakens the US Dollar, NZD/USD might recover above 0.5700. A softer NFP report might fuel speculation of an earlier-than-expected policy shift by the Federal Reserve, which would reduce the strength of the Dollar. The pair could test resistance at 0.5745, and further gains may extend toward 0.5780. Any positive news in US-China trade relations, such as the rollbacks of tariffs, will enhance risk sentiment and

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