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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Bounces Back from One-Week Low Pre-FOMC Decision, Still Capped Below 0.6000

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  • July 29, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair experiences a small bounce from one-week low in Tuesday’s Asian trading session, moving towards the 0.5975 area as the US Dollar gets some relief from its recent surge. Hopes for an extension of the US-China trade truce contribute some strength to the Kiwi. But gains are still restricted with investors showing caution ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday. With speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep higher interest rates to battle inflationary pressures, market players are still cautious about taking aggressive positions, keeping the NZD/USD pair under the 0.6000 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets are waiting for a clearer picture of the Fed’s interest rate policy, which will have significant USD volatility and influence NZD/USD direction. • Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence Index will provide a peek into labor market health and consumer confidence and could affect the USD. • Expectations of an extension of the trade truce underpin risk appetite and the Kiwi, but any trade talks breakdown will put downward pressure on NZD/USD. • While the rebound occurs, NZD/USD is still capped against the psychological 0.6000 level, which indicates a dearth of strong bullish sentiment in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. NZD/USD pair makes a mild recovery from a one-week low, bolstered by a temporary respite in the US Dollar’s recent advance and fresh hopes of a prolonged US-China trade ceasefire. In spite of this rally, the pair is still locked in tight below the crucial 0.6000 level as traders remain risk-averse in the run-up to the next FOMC interest rate announcement. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will stand firm on a hawkish line because of inflation fears still cap the upside for the Kiwi. With major US economic data such as JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence later today, players are more likely to stay on the sidelines until there is clearer direction of US monetary policy. NZD/USD rebounds from a one-week low but is unable to rise above the 0.6000 level due to cautious market sentiment. Traders hold out for the FOMC decision and important US data for more decisive direction. Hopes of a US-China trade truce provide only limited support for the Kiwi. • NZD/USD recovers marginally from a one-week low, reaching the 0.5975 area during Tuesday’s Asian session. • The US Dollar takes a breather after a steep rally, giving relief to the Kiwi in the short term. • Expectations of a prolonged decline in US-China trade tensions underpin risk appetite and the antipodean currency. • The pair stays below the 0.6000 level, reflecting scant bullish interest. • Market attention turns to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, with speculation leaning towards a dovish tone. • US economic data releases such as JOLTS and Consumer Confidence may be affecting near-term action. • Defensive trading is the order of the day, with investors waiting for greater clarity on US interest rate policy and inflation expectations. The NZD/USD currency pair experienced some calmness in the Asian session on Tuesday, as the US Dollar rested after its recent rally. Market mood was also somewhat boosted by renewed hopes of an extension of the US-China trade ceasefire, which tends to favor risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. With geopolitical tensions seeming to dissipate a tad, traders saw an excuse to refrain from over-selling the Kiwi, and hence the pair staged a small bounce. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nonetheless, investor focus continues to be strongly set on the coming US Federal Reserve policy reveal, which is likely to dictate the broad market tone. With inflation remaining the primary issue, the Fed is expected to have a tight interest rate stance. As long as policy intent remains unclear, market participants are likely to be tepid, holding back from making any firm directional punts. In the meantime, Tuesday’s US economic data releases, such as job openings and consumer confidence, are also set to influence near-term sentiment toward the NZD/USD exchange rate. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is still under pressure as it trades below the psychological 0.6000 level, which indicates prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. The latest rebound from a one-week low has not yet validated a reversal trend, as the pair still struggles to break above strong resistance near 0.6000. A bounce above this level could pave the way for a short-term upturn towards the 0.6030–0.6050 region. On the negative side, near-term support is near the 0.5950 level, and a fall below it could expose the pair to additional weakness towards the 0.5920 area. Momentum indicators are neutral to slightly bearish, indicating limited interest in buying for the time being. FORECAST If the Federal Reserve takes a more dovish tone in its next policy announcement or hints at a possible rate hike pause, the US Dollar would weaken and allow the NZD/USD pair to appreciate. A breakout above the 0.6000 psychological level would also serve as a catalyst for fresh purchasing interest, which could propel the pair towards the 0.6030–0.6050 resistance area. Favorable news on US-China trade relations or positive economic news from New Zealand could also provide the added boost to this upside move. On the other hand, if the Fed remains hawkish and signals keeping interest rates high for a longer duration, the US Dollar might strengthen further, subjecting NZD/USD to fresh pressure. A breach of the 0.5950 support might trigger further losses, with the next significant support around 0.5920. Poor Chinese economic data or a worsening global risk environment could also add to downside threats for the Kiwi.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Surges Past 0.6000 on Trade Hopes Despite RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

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  • July 23, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair surges above the 0.6000 threshold, currently trading around 0.6025 during early European sessions on Wednesday, buoyed by positive market mood fueled by hopes of trade deals. Increased hopes of more US-China agreement, complemented by a surprise lowering of Japanese import tariffs announced by former President Trump, have lifted risk appetite, favoring the New Zealand Dollar. But risks are still on the downside as softer-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation figures have strengthened bets for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates in August, with markets currently pricing an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are pricing an 85% probability of a 25bps cut; confirmation could have significant bearing on the NZD. • Any news from Stockholm high-level meetings and tariff extension updates will be closely observed for their risk sentiment influence. • The initial July Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings in the US may impact USD strength and direction of NZD/USD. • Since it is an important trading partner, any indication of economic pressure or trade tension in China will have a direct bearing on the Kiwi. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to extend its rally, trading at around 0.6025 against the background of a boost in risk appetite fueled by improved trade sentiments following revived optimism over US-China talks. Traders are upbeat with evidence of progress on the US-China trade talks, such as completion of details of previous agreements and an unexpected reduction in tariffs on Japanese imports by Trump. This favorable setting has buoyed the New Zealand Dollar, a risk-sensitive currency. Nevertheless, caution remains as investors expect a probable rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in August after underestimating inflation data, and this would cap further gains in the pair. NZD/USD is traded around 0.6025, supported by positive risk mood following renewed US-China trade optimism. Yet, RBNZ rate cut expectations in August after soft inflation numbers might cap further gain. • NZD/USD advances to close to 0.6025, 0.40% higher in initial European trading. • Trade optimism prods the Kiwi as US and China wrap up deal details. • Trump announces lower tariff on Japanese imports, boosting risk appetite. • Potential US-China talks next week in Stockholm can sway direction. • New Zealand CPI data were lower than expected for Q2. • The markets anticipate an 85% probability of a 25bps RBNZ rate cut in August. • US PMI figures on Thursday will be watched closely for USD movement. The New Zealand Dollar is gaining strength from an upsurge of friendly trade sentiment, especially around developments between China and the United States. Recent comments from a Chinese embassy official reaffirmed that both countries have completed the details of implementing an earlier agreed upon deal between former President Trump and President Xi. This boosted market sentiment, particularly for risk-sensitive currencies such as the NZD. Complementing the optimistic tone, Trump also declared the slashing of tariffs on Japanese imports, dispelling fears of an aggressive trade policy and further enhancing global investor confidence. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView But even with the supportive trade environment, economic fundamentals in New Zealand are becoming worrying. Consumer prices in New Zealand increased lower than anticipated during the second quarter, sparking hope that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can decide on a rate cut in its next policy meeting. With the majority of the market already discounting a 25 basis point cut in August, sentiment on the Kiwi is still cautious. In the meantime, the market is following closely behind the next batch of US-China negotiations and US economic releases for further information on the global outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has recaptured the psychological level of 0.6000 and is stabilizing around 0.6025, showing short-term bullish momentum. If the couple holds above support at 0.6000, it could try to test the subsequent resistance area of 0.6050–0.6070. A decisive break above this level would usher the route towards 0.6100. At the bottom, the key support at 0.5980, and a violation thereof could leave the pair exposed to more losses towards 0.5950, indicating fresh bearish pressure. FORECAST If favorable trade trends persist—especially improvements in coming US-China talks and additional relief from tariffs—the NZD/USD pair could continue its upward movement. A prolonged risk-on market, facilitated by healthy global market sentiment and supportive US economic news, can drive the pair to resistance levels of about 0.6070 and even 0.6100. Any unexpected hawkish bias from the RBNZ or stabilization of New Zealand’s inflation trends could also be a factor for further gains. On the flip side, if future US economic data, including the PMI reading, are stronger than anticipated, the US Dollar can regain power and push the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, any renewed trade tensions or break in the US-China talks will reverse prevailing optimism and drive the Kiwi downwards. A confirmed RBNZ rate cut in August, particularly if combined with dovish forward guidance, might further pressure the pair, with potential falls towards 0.5950 or lower.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: Kiwi Fails to Hold Above 0.6000 After RBNZ Decision, Bearish Pressure Increases

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  • July 9, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair is in pressure, hovering close to a two-week low following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision to leave interest rates unchanged, as had been largely anticipated. While there was an initial post-RBNZ jump, the Kiwi could not hold ground amid a firmer US Dollar, bolstered by fading Fed rate cut hopes and persisting trade tensions. Technically, the decline of the pair through important moving averages and bearish signals indicates downside potential. A breakdown of the support at 0.5970 may then expose greater losses to 0.5900, with the recovery meeting resistance around 0.6025 and 0.6060. KEY LOOKOUTS • A solid breakout below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level may signal further losses to 0.5900 and the June low of 0.5880. • A stronger US Dollar supported by lower Fed rate cut speculation and safe-haven demand during trade uncertainties continues to suppress the Kiwi. • Any near-term recovery attempts could be met with resistance at 0.6025 (50% Fibo) and 0.6060 (38.2% Fibo), with an important breakout level at 0.6120. • The market response to the RBNZ’s rate hold remains subdued; upcoming Kiwi direction could depend on global risk appetite and US economic signals. NZD/USD currency pair is trading under pressure at a two-week low, unable to sustain its short-lived post-RBNZ gains after the central bank opted to leave interest rates steady. A robust US Dollar, driven by weakening hopes of Fed rate cuts and ongoing trade tensions, remains overwhelmingly bearish on the Kiwi. Technically, a breakdown through the 100-period SMA and bearish momentum indicators point towards additional downside risk. Unless the pair takes out important resistance areas above 0.6025, it is at risk of further losses, particularly if it breaks decisively below the 0.5970 support area. NZD/USD is trading close to a two-week low after an inability to hold gains of the RBNZ rate decision. Bearish technical conditions and a stronger USD suggest further decline below the 0.6000 level. Important support is at 0.5970, with resistance capped at 0.6025. • Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s closely anticipated hold on rates provided minimal support to the Kiwi. • NZD/USD touched 0.6015 briefly but reversed sharply, indicating weak bullish conviction. • Lower Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven flows into the USD are squeezing the NZD. • The pair declined below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. • A persistent break below this Fibonacci level may lead the way to 0.5935 and 0.5880. • Any rebound could short out at this level, followed by the 0.6060 and 0.6100 areas. • Market direction is dictated by global trade uncertainties and US policy worries. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to be burdened by wider macroeconomic forces, led by the continued strength of the US Dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left interest rates unchanged, as predicted, but the move did not give a confidence boost to investors in the Kiwi. The focus has instead turned to international events, particularly in the US, where trade policy issues and inflation expectations are directing currency flows. Since the US is holding its ground regarding tariffs and economic protectionism, the risk appetite of the market has been curbed, curtailing demand for risk-correlative assets such as the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts is also lending credence to the US Dollar’s support. Investors currently look for the Fed to hold off on any easing, keeping US yields sexy and firming up demand for the greenback. Furthermore, fear about global growth due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding trade talks continues to be the main theme in markets. This wider environment provides a challenging environment for the NZD to rally, despite calm local policy from the RBNZ. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has crossed below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which indicates bearish momentum change. Oscillators on both the hourly and daily charts are moving in negative directions, signifying building lower pressure. The pair is now trading below the important psychological level of 0.6000, and a resistance break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of around 0.5970 could signal a deeper bearish extension. Immediate support is at the 0.6025 level, with deeper levels of resistance at 0.6060 and 0.6100. Unless the pair recovers these levels, the technical bias is tilted in favor of sellers. FORECAST Should NZD/USD hold above the support area of 0.5970 and consolidate, a short-term recovery can be anticipated. The initial challenge for the bulls would be at the 0.6025 level, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall. A successful breach above this may direct the pair towards the 0.6060 area and possibly retest the 0.6100 level. Sustained buying momentum past this point may unlock the way towards the recent high at 0.6120, which can serve as a key resistance level for any such sustained bullish trend. Conversely, a failure to stay above 0.5970 may ignite new selling pressure, and the pair may be exposed to further losses. The next level of support comes in at 0.5935, and below that there is the psychologically relevant 0.5900 level. A breach below this might send NZD/USD towards the June monthly swing low of 0.5880. Based on prevailing market mood and technical indications, the downside looks more likely unless solid bullish momentum re-emerges.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Retreats Below 0.6000 Amid Mixed NZ Data and Pre-FOMC Caution

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  • May 7, 2025
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NZD/USD pair slipped back below the key 0.6000 level after briefly touching a two-week high during the Asian session, pressured by mixed New Zealand labor market data and a modest rebound in the US Dollar. Though US-China trade talk news and stable unemployment levels initially buoyed the Kiwi, weak wage growth and minimal job increases rekindled expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. In addition, risk-off sentiment in front of the Federal Reserve’s coming policy decision and Chair Powell’s comments has speculators holding off on new directional wagers, leaving the pair on the back foot. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players wait for the result of the Fed’s two-day conclave, with attention on the policy statement and the signals on future rate cuts by Chair Jerome Powell. • Weaker wage growth and muted employment increases continue to underpin bets that the RBNZ may cut rates to 2.75% by the end of the year, bearing down on NZD sentiment. • Hopes of resumed US-China trade negotiations in Switzerland could provide some support to risk-sensitive currencies such as the NZD, subject to developments. • A slight US Dollar recovery puts further pressure on the pair to the downside, and any sustained US Dollar strength would limit NZD/USD gains in the near term. NZD/USD pair continues to be exposed to further weakness as investors wait for important macroeconomic events and policy announcements. The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s words will be carefully monitored for rate path guidance, which will have a substantial bearing on USD demand. Meanwhile, ongoing bets on rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand—despite soft wage growth and lackluster employment numbers—are set to cap any meaningful upside for the Kiwi. In addition, some short-term relief may be provided by developments in US-China trade talks, but overall sentiment is still cautious and keeps the NZD/USD pair under selling pressure. NZD/USD pair is under downward pressure as markets look to the Fed’s policy decision and direction from Chair Powell. Combined New Zealand jobs data and expectations for a rate cut by the RBNZ continue to keep the Kiwi weighed down, with US-China trade talks providing minimal support. • NZD/USD retreated below 0.6000 after momentarily reaching a two-week high at around 0.6025 in the Asian session. •  Confusing New Zealand jobs data provided early support but couldn’t hold pace because of slow wage growth and limited employment gains. •  RBNZ rate cut bets are still intact, with markets pricing in a potential fall to 2.75% by the end of the year. •   US Dollar strength puts pressure on the pair with a modest bounce before pivotal Fed events. •   FOMC rate decision and Powell testimony are in high focus for new guidance on US monetary policy and rate expectations. •  Optimism on US-China trade talks provided a fleeting lift to market mood but not enough to sustain a rally. •  Market players are hesitant, staying out of large positions until after the Fed announcement and the related policy guidance. NZD/USD currency pair is currently driven by a combination of economic data and overall market mood. New Zealand’s recent labor market data displayed stability in unemployment rates, yet weak wage growth and minimal employment generation have contributed to concerns about the economic pace of the nation. These pressures have supported expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would potentially weigh further interest rate reductions in the months ahead to ensure domestic growth. The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report also noted dangers related to global trade uncertainty, which remains a drag on the economic forecast. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, market focus is on the approaching Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are anxiously awaiting any indication from the Fed on the direction of future US monetary policy. Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be crucial in determining expectations for interest rate movements. Concurrently with this, progress in US-China trade relations, notably the scheduled talks in Switzerland, is also under close observation. These global developments will have an important bearing on investor attitude and currency market direction in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD could not hold above the 0.6000 psychological level, showing high resistance around the 0.6020–0.6025 region. The pair’s rejection around this region may indicate a temporary halt in the recent upsurge. Major support comes in around 0.5960, and then firm demand around 0.5925. A near-term close back above 0.6000 would be required to renew short-term bullish sentiment, or a break below support levels may risk further losses. Momentum indicators also soften, underpinning the defensive near-term outlook. FORECAST Should risk appetite strengthen and market sentiment improve—especially on the back of favorable US-China trade talks news or a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve—NZD/USD may try and recapture the 0.6000 level. A continued break through this level could lead to further advances towards the 0.6025 resistance area, and if pace is maintained, the pair may aim at the 0.6060–0.6080 band. Also, any RBNZ surprise indicating a more dovish approach towards rate reductions could also provide upside support to the Kiwi. To the contrary, in the event of the Fed pursuing a hawkish stance or transmitting rate delay hints, the US Dollar would surge higher, depressing NZD/USD further. A violation below near-term support at 0.5960 would open up the pair for further declines down to 0.5925, with prospects for extended decline down towards 0.5900. Additionally, sustained weakening in New Zealand’s economic markers or a weakness in global trade sentiment would contribute to the bearish pressure in the near term.

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