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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Suffers as Fed is Cautious and Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Can China’s Stimulus Rescue the Kiwi?

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  • March 21, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues to suffer from downward pressure for a third consecutive session as slight US Dollar strength takes its toll on the Kiwi. The Federal Reserve’s position of offering no more than two rate cuts this year, together with continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, has contributed to safe-haven flows towards the Greenback. Though these forces temper the NZD’s outlook, positives surrounding China’s latest stimulus efforts provide some respite to the antipodean currency. Still, without high-profile US economic data releases, traders might still be cautious, waiting for more definitive signals before establishing a reversal in the NZD/USD trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar continues to be supported as markets absorb the Fed’s expectation of just two rate reductions by year-end. • Safe-haven demand for the Greenback continues to be fueled by ongoing Middle East conflicts and Russia-Ukraine war, putting pressure on NZD. • Hopes for China’s recent stimulus efforts may provide near-term support to the Kiwi and other antipodean currencies. • Weak US economic data may result in defensive trading, with investors waiting for a clear trend reversal in NZD/USD. The NZD/USD currency pair is under pressure against a mildly firm US Dollar, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach towards interest rate reductions and persistent geopolitical tensions. The safe-haven demand for the Greenback is supported by ambiguity over global wars, especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, hope over China’s newly proposed stimulus packages provides a possible safety net for the New Zealand Dollar, capping further losses. Without major US economic data, market players will resort to a wait-and-see strategy, awaiting clearer signs before affirming a directional change in the NZD/USD trend. NZD/USD continues to struggle for the third consecutive day against the backdrop of modest USD appreciation and increasing geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, China’s stimulus optimism might serve to confine losses for the Kiwi to a smaller extent. Traders now look for clearer signs before affirming any significant trend change. • NZD/USD is down for the third day in a row, showing ongoing Kiwi weakness in the face of moderate US Dollar firmness. • The Greenback takes support from the Fed estimating only two 25 bps interest rate reductions by the end of the year, enhancing safe-haven demand. • Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks regarding slowed inflation gains and retaliation tariff fears further buoy the Greenback. • Middle East geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain key drivers of demand for the safe-haven USD. • Recent stimulus in China provides some resilience to the New Zealand Dollar, preventing deep declines. • Traders’ restraint due to absence of key US economic data releases keeps them in wait-and-watch mode for more robust cues to take aggressive positions. • Sentiment in markets remains contradictory, with USD strength potential limited by fears of tariff-induced US economic slowdown. The NZD/USD currency pair remains under pressure as general economic and geopolitical considerations shape market sentiment. The US Dollar is supported by the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance towards interest rate reductions, with policymakers only forecasting two cuts this year. Further, comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on potential delays in meeting inflation targets due to global tariff retaliation have contributed to the Greenback’s strength. Meanwhile, continued geopolitical tensions, including Middle East tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, have increased the need for secure assets such as the US Dollar. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, some of the New Zealand Dollar’s positive momentum is coming from China’s newly announced economic stimulus policies. As a key trading partner for New Zealand, China’s economic outlook plays a crucial role in shaping the Kiwi’s performance. The stimulus efforts are expected to boost economic activity, indirectly benefiting export-driven economies like New Zealand. While these global dynamics continue to unfold, traders are closely monitoring market developments, waiting for stronger signals to determine the long-term direction of the currency pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is appearing to suffer from chronic weakness as it is not able to maintain above crucial levels of support, and new selling pressure is seen near the mid-0.5700s. The pair’s failure to hold a bounce back from the 0.5720–0.5725 area indicates that downward momentum is still intact. The markets are eagerly observing for a firm break below this area of support, which might pave the way for more downside. However, any attempt to recover is threatened by the prospects of sellers cropping up in the 0.5780–0.5800 area, unless there’s a very good bullish stimulus shifting sentiment. FORECAST Any shift in the sentiment towards the riskier assets or a decline in the strength of the US Dollar as a result of the dovish inputs from the Fed or disappointing economic reports might result in NZD/USD recovering. A continued advance past the 0.5780–0.5800 resistance level might indicate fresh buying interest and carry the pair toward the next resistance around 0.5840. Improved Chinese economic news or better-than-anticipated New Zealand data might serve as a further catalyst for further pair upside action. On the negative side, sustained US Dollar strength, ongoing geopolitical tensions, or poor market confidence may continue to keep the NZD under strain. A fall below the 0.5720 support level may initiate further losses, setting the stage for a drop towards the 0.5670–0.5650 area. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair may even test lower levels not witnessed in recent months, supporting the bearish outlook unless backed by new fundamental triggers.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Jumps Higher than 0.5750 as China’s Economic Data Increases Market Optimism and Weakening USD

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  • March 17, 2025
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The pair NZD/USD moved higher than the 0.5750 level, picking up strength for a second day in a row after the publication of strong economic data from China. Retail Sales in China increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, and Industrial Production grew by 5.9%, both showing enhanced economic activity and improving market optimism in the Asia-Pacific economy. Since China is still one of New Zealand’s most important trading partners, these encouraging signs supported the Kiwi. Further optimism was provided by China’s recently launched consumption stimulus plan. The US Dollar, on the other hand, lost strength as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted sharply, further supporting NZD/USD’s bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Greater-than-anticipated Retail Sales and Industrial Production in China increase NZD sentiment, supporting optimism in Asia-Pacific market dynamics. • A precipitous decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index presses the US Dollar, providing support to NZD/USD advances. • China’s special action plan to promote consumption, wages, and real estate sentiment favors regional currencies, including NZD over USD. • Weakness in New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index is a domestic signal, and if global sentiment reverses, this could restrict NZD’s rally. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to strengthen with the support of positive Chinese economic data and a soft US Dollar. China’s Retail Sales increased by 4.0% and Industrial Production grew 5.9% in January-February, which indicates good economic momentum and raises investor sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region. The New Zealand Dollar also gained from China’s new stimulus package that was created to boost domestic consumption, pay, as well as stabilize markets. On the other hand, the US Dollar remained on the back foot after a steep fall in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index to its weakest level since November 2022. In spite of a decline in New Zealand’s services sector, the favorable external environment remains in support of NZD/USD’s rise. NZD/USD climbs above 0.5750, led by robust Chinese economic data and a softer US Dollar. The pair’s upside is also supported by China’s new consumption stimulus plan. Even with domestic service sector softness, the pair continues to rally. • NZD/USD climbed above 0.5750, marking the second straight day of gains on improved sentiment. • China’s Retail Sales grew 4.0% YoY in January-February, from 3.7% in December, supporting regional currencies such as the NZD. • Chinese Industrial Production grew 5.9% YoY, better than expected, and indicating economic prowess. • China rolled out a special consumption stimulus plan, comprising wage increases and efforts to enhance household expenditure and stabilize core markets. • PSI in New Zealand fell to 49.1, indicating services sector contraction that may drag on domestic economic prospects. • US Dollar declined strongly, after a fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022. • The attention now shifts to US Retail Sales data that may drive the next direction for NZD/USD. China’s recent economic statistics have sent a wave of optimism into the market, particularly favoring the New Zealand Dollar. The increase in Retail Sales and Industrial Production between the months of January-February indicates firmer consumer spending and industrial performance, which supports China’s economic growth. Since China is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners, any good news in its economy will prove favorable to the New Zealand Dollar. In addition, China’s declaration of a special action plan to spur domestic consumption—via wage rises, support for household spending, and market stabilization efforts—has also boosted sentiment throughout the region. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, the US Dollar is under pressure from declining consumer confidence in the United States. The steep drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects increasing worry about the outlook for the US economy, and this is having an impact on investor sentiment. Although New Zealand’s own service sector has reported signs of slowing, overall market sentiment remains biased towards the Kiwi, owing primarily to superior external drivers. With global markets waiting closely for subsequent economic releases, the overall economic climate remains in the driver’s seat in dictating currency fluctuations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is displaying the signs of ongoing bullish strength following the break through the 0.5750 resistance level. The pair remains firm around 0.5760, reflecting buyer demand at higher prices. If the pair holds above this range, it may challenge the next resistance zone of 0.5785–0.5800. On the negative side, support is close to 0.5720, and then a stronger support area around 0.5680. A break below these could mean a loss of momentum. On the whole, the current price action indicates a positive sentiment with the pair remaining in a short-term bullish bias. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience further gains in the short term. Positive economic news from China and the stimulus packages to stimulate consumption are expected to continue supporting the New Zealand Dollar. A break above the 0.5760 level may pave the way towards the next resistance levels at 0.5785 and 0.5800. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair may even try to reach the 0.5820 level, particularly if future US economic data continues to be weak. On the other hand, any change in market mood or disappointing economic news from the rest of the world may initiate a pullback in NZD/USD. In case the pair is unable to stay above 0.5750, it might initially be supported around 0.5720. Breaking below this point might initiate a more serious correction towards 0.5680 or even 0.5650. Moreover, if New Zealand’s economic indicators in the domestic market continue to reflect weakness, it may cap the upside and risk a move down.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Falls Close to 0.5700 as China’s Deflationary Pressures Hit Kiwi Sentiment

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  • March 10, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair fell close to the 0.5700 level in Monday’s Asian session, weighed down by worsening deflationary pressures in China. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February fell 0.7% year-over-year, the steepest decline since January 2024, fueling concerns over soft domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy—New Zealand’s major trading partner. This has taken a heavy toll on the Kiwi. Yet, pair downside momentum can be curtailed by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts in light of weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls. The market waits now for Tuesday’s US CPI release for further cues on Fed policy and overall market direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s sharper-than-expected decline in CPI signals weak domestic demand, adding pressure on the Kiwi from the strong trade links with China. • Markets await Tuesday’s US CPI data, which may impact Federal Reserve rate expectations and set the tone for NZD/USD action. • Soft US jobs data stokes rate cut speculation, which may cap USD strength and underpin a small NZD/USD rally. • International risk sentiment and geopolitics could affect safe-haven demand for USD, influencing near-term volatility in NZD/USD trading. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to be under pressure, trading close to the 0.5700 level in the wake of increasing deflationary pressures in China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. China’s CPI fall in February indicates poor consumer demand and puts additional bearish pressure on the Kiwi. Downside in the pair, however, may be capped as weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls data has reinforced expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors now look to Tuesday’s US CPI report, which will be instrumental in determining market sentiment and the short-term direction of the NZD/USD pair. NZD/USD hovers around 0.5700, weighed down by China’s worsening deflation and poor domestic demand. Downside is capped by weaker US jobs data, which enhances Fed rate cut hopes. All eyes now on Tuesday’s US CPI data for new direction. • NZD/USD quotes at 0.5700, weighed down by China’s emerging deflationary pressures. • China’s CPI dropped 0.7% in February, the largest fall since January 2024, indicating soft domestic demand. • New Zealand Dollar falls, as China is one of its key trading partners and economic slowdown dents Kiwi mood. • Soft US Nonfarm Payrolls data boosts expectations of several Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. • Fed policy direction continues to be prudent, with officials emphasizing caution and the requirement for data-driven decision-making. • US CPI releases on Tuesday are likely to be a major driver of the next direction in NZD/USD. • Market sentiment and global risk flows will continue to drive short-term currency pair movement. China’s increasing deflationary pressures have created new doubts about the strength of the world economy, particularly for nations such as New Zealand that enjoy strong trade relations with China. The steep drop in China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is an indicator of weak domestic consumption and weak household demand. As one of New Zealand’s largest export markets, any Chinese economic slowdown would tend to influence the Kiwi economy indirectly. Market players are becoming more cautious, observing how China’s domestic challenges may impact overall economic activity and global trade flows. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Alternatively, the United States also has its own share of uncertainties, especially after the recent Nonfarm Payrolls reading indicated a moderation in job growth. This has promoted increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. While policymakers have indicated a data-dependent policy, future economic indicators—particularly the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)—will have a crucial influence on forming expectations. These global macroeconomic trends are expected to drive investor sentiment and near-term policy choices in major economies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD continues to come under bear pressure, trading near major support areas at the 0.5700 level. The pair has not been able to sustain buying momentum, reflecting that sellers still have the upper hand. A persistent break below this support level could pave the way for additional declines, but a bounce back above near-term resistance levels may reflect a potential change in mood. Traders will carefully observe price behavior around these major levels for reversal or breakout signals, particularly before high-impact economic releases such as the US CPI report. FORECAST If the coming economic data, specifically the US CPI, indicates softer inflation, this would reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and possibly weaken the US Dollar. This situation might present some upside potential for NZD/USD to recover to higher resistance levels. Moreover, any indication of policy stimulus or stabilization in China may enhance market sentiment for the Kiwi and present additional scope for recovery. Conversely, in the event that US inflation numbers turn higher than anticipated, this can temper expectations of premature rate reductions by the Fed, strengthening the US Dollar and putting additional pressure on NZD/USD. Additionally, ongoing deflationary indications and subdued Chinese domestic demand might further drain the New Zealand Dollar. In that scenario, the duo can find it difficult to stay above major support levels and might experience further falls in the near future.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Bats Below 0.5750 Amid Market Jitters and Significant Economic Events

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  • March 7, 2025
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NZD/USD continues to lose steam below 0.5750 amid market jitters in advance of China’s trade balance release and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement. The pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading at around 0.5730 in the Asian session. Meanwhile, international trade events, such as Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian imports from threatened tariffs and Canada’s slowdown in retaliatory tariffs, are still influencing market sentiment. The US labor market remains strong, with initial unemployment claims falling and NFP to increase to 160K in February. Besides that, China’s promise of more stimulus and a dovish move from the People’s Bank of China have assisted somewhat in support of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). But fears surrounding US policy uncertainty and possible Fed rate actions deter the strength of the US Dollar, placing the NZD/USD currency pair in a subdued trading band. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s trade balance report is followed closely by traders, which has the potential to affect NZD sentiment considering that China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. • The anticipated increase in US job additions to 160K has the potential to affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and influence the strength of USD against NZD. • Market sentiment is affected by Trump’s tariff exemptions and Canada’s postponed retaliatory tariffs, influencing risk appetite and currency fluctuations in the forex market. • Promises of additional stimulus and possible rate reductions by the People’s Bank of China would help support the NZD, offsetting overall market uncertainties. NZD/USD continues to be pressured as investors wait for major economic releases, including the release of China’s trade balance and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market mood is influenced by continued global trade news, such as Trump’s tariff exemptions on Mexico and Canada and Canada’s postponement of retaliatory tariffs. In the meantime, hopes of more stimulus from the government of China and the dovishness of the People’s Bank of China lend some strength to the New Zealand Dollar. But US policy uncertainty fears and the prospect of the Federal Reserve responding to slowing economy and inflation keep the US Dollar down, keeping the NZD/USD currency pair in a cautious range. NZD/USD is trading with caution below 0.5750 as the market looks to China’s trade data and the US NFP report. Global trade events and China’s stimulus plans drive sentiment, with uncertainty over Fed policy holding back the USD. • The pair is under selling pressure ahead of major economic data releases, as market caution prevails. • Investors are extremely careful watching China’s trade data, which has the potential to affect NZD due to China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. • The employment market is likely to improve, with payroll additions climbing to 160K, having a bearing on USD strength and Fed policy expectations. • Exemptions of Mexican and Canadian imports from potential tariffs under the USMCA affect global trade sentiment and risk appetite. • Canada delays its second round of tariffs on US goods until April 2, lowering near-term trade tensions. • Pledges of further economic stimulus by Chinese officials help support NZD with concern over global economic growth. • Expectations in the market move towards possible action by the Fed to curb economic slowdown, influencing movement in USD in the forex market. The market scene is still influenced by global economic events and policy measures, shaping investor perception and currency movement. Ahead of the release of China’s trade balance figures, market players are watching closely for its possible implications on international trade and economic expansion. With China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, any change in the dynamics of trade may have spillover effects on the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the United States’ performance in its labor market is also being eyed, with the next Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due to provide some clues about trends in the employment market and the overall stability of the economy. These events reflect the interlinkages between economies around the world and why such economic indicators need to be closely tracked. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Finally, policy announcements from major economies also have a big impact on market sentiment. The United States’ recent waiver of Mexican and Canadian products from threatened tariffs under the USMCA lightens trade tensions, while Canada’s hesitation on retaliatory tariffs adds to a stable trade atmosphere. In the meantime, China’s agreement to further stimulus measures indicates an activist approach toward maintaining economic growth, supporting confidence in its market policies. While central banks and governments deal with these economic woes, their actions will keep driving financial markets, business plans, and global trade relationships. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is in a cautious range, unable to build steam above significant resistance levels. The pair recently put an end to its losing streak near 0.5730 but has resistance at the 0.5750 level. A continued break above this level may pave the way for additional upside, while support on the downside is seen around 0.5700. Moving averages reflect a bearish to neutral bias, with sellers in control unless there is a breakout. Furthermore, momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD reflect a lack of strong bullish conviction, leaving the pair susceptible to additional consolidation in the near term. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience a rise, particularly if China’s trade balance figures are better than expected or if additional stimulus is introduced. A robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report would also enhance risk appetite, thereby indirectly favoring commodity-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. Technically, a move above the 0.5750 resistance level may pave the way for additional gains, with the next stop being around 0.5780–0.5800. A softer US Dollar, fueled by speculation of Federal Reserve policy changes, would further enhance the pair’s bullish momentum. To the downside, NZD/USD is exposed to bearish forces in case of disappointing Chinese economic statistics, which would trigger concerns of decelerating worldwide trade. An upbeat US NFP reading would further solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias, firming up the US Dollar and exerting bearish pressure on NZD/USD. If the pair cannot

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Sustains Strength With China’s Optimistic Services PMI and RBNZ Leadership Change

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  • March 5, 2025
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NZD/USD sustains strength at about 0.5650 as China’s Services PMI picked up optimistically despite a substantial leadership change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The more-than-anticipated increase in China’s Services PMI to 51.4 indicates healthy economic momentum that can affect the New Zealand Dollar on account of good trade relationships. At the same time, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation introduces uncertainty, as Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby takes over on an acting basis until March 31. On the US side, the Greenback comes under pressure as markets respond to newly imposed tariffs by President Trump and rumors of a policy flip. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at around 105.70 amidst increasing fears regarding economic growth and trade policies. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s Services PMI rise to 51.4 indicates economic strength, which could strengthen the New Zealand Dollar as a result of robust trade relations. • Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is uncertain, where Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will hold position temporarily until March 31, waiting for an interim replacement. • President Trump’s tariff increase on Canada, Mexico, and China is under scrutiny, and there are rumors that he might reverse policies in face of economic uncertainty. • US Dollar Index (DXY) near 105.70 captures market anxiety regarding trade tensions and possible changes in Trump’s tariff policy. NZD/USD is holding firm at 0.5650 following a higher-than-expected China Services PMI and major events at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). China’s PMI increased to 51.4, supporting economic durability and possibly underpinning the New Zealand Dollar because of close trading relationships. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is an added uncertainty, with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby holding the fort until a temporary appointment is made. On the American side, President Trump’s latest tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China are under fire, with talk of him revisiting his policy in light of economic worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady at 105.70, a measure of market jitters over trade tensions and policy changes. NZD/USD remains stable around 0.5650 amid a positive China Services PMI and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation. On the other hand, US tariff concerns drag on the US Dollar. • The pair remains stable around 0.5650 amid positive Chinese economic data and leadership changes at the RBNZ. • The index increased to 51.4 in February, above forecast, and points to economic resilience, which could be supportive of the New Zealand Dollar. • Governor Adrian Orr resigns, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby on an acting basis until March 31. • President Trump’s tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China raise market fears, with talk of policy change reversal. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is traded around 105.70, under pressure from below as trade tensions and fears of economic slowdown weigh. • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggests that Trump is considering revising his tariff position within less than 48 hours of imposition. • Economic statistics and trade policy from China, New Zealand, and the US continue to drive market movement and currency performance. NZD/USD stays stable as events on the global economic and political front continue. China’s Services PMI unexpectedly climbed to 51.4, indicating a stronger economy, which is important to New Zealand given their robust trade relationship. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also changing leadership, as Governor Adrian Orr has resigned. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby has taken over as acting governor until March 31, and this brings with it an element of transition within the nation’s financial leadership. Though these elements have contributed to confidence in the market, there are still doubts on how new leadership will influence monetary policies in the future. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Internationally, the US is increasingly plagued by concerns with its recent tariffs. President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has raised questions over possible economic impacts. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the administration could revisit the tariffs, but reports say Trump is keen to keep them in place. This constant uncertainty over trade policies may affect global markets and investor sentiment as companies and governments weigh the long-term effects of these actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading flat at the 0.5650 level, reflecting consolidation following recent market action. The duo encounters instant resistance around the 0.5680 handle, with a break higher perhaps paving the way for more upside momentum. On the flip side, the area of 0.5620 has been a recent support level that has held firm. The 50-day moving average is in a neutral trend, and RSI hovers in a balanced zone, indicating indecision in the market. If the buying momentum picks up, the pair would challenge higher levels of resistance, while a breakdown below significant support levels would initiate further downward movement. FORECAST NZD/USD may steady higher above the 0.5680 resistance level and potentially as far as 0.5720 in the near term. A convincing breakout above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment and drive the pair to 0.5750. Supporting factors for this upward movement would be sustained economic strength in China, favorable sentiment regarding New Zealand’s trade prospects, and weakness in the US Dollar if market worries about trade tariffs increase. Moreover, any dovish communication from the Federal Reserve or de-escalation of US trade tensions would further propel upside movement. To the downside, as selling pressure builds, NZD/USD may test support around 0.5620, and a breakdown below this may see a further fall to 0.5580. A stronger US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand or expectations of hawkish monetary policy, may speed up this decline. On top of that, any negative Chinese economic news or doubt about Reserve Bank of New Zealand leadership succession might act as a drag on the New Zealand Dollar. Under deteriorating global risk sentiment, the pair might experience further losses, with 0.5550 being a key support level to monitor.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Outlook: Bullish Trend Remains Above 0.5700 Despite RBNZ Policy Change

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  • February 19, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair bounced back above 0.5700 after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s speech and has continued with its bullish trend despite the central bank reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points. The currency pair is still within an uptrend channel, with the 14-day RSI remaining above the 50 mark, which supports the positive outlook. Immediate support lies at the nine- and 14-day EMAs of 0.5695 and 0.5685, respectively, while resistance is seen at the 0.5790 level, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. A break below 0.5650 could weaken the bullish bias, potentially pushing the pair toward its lowest level since October 2022 at 0.5516. KEY LOOKOUTS • NZD/USD encounters resistance at the top of the ascending channel at 0.5790, with a breakout likely taking the price to the two-month high of 0.5794. • Nine- and 14-day EMAs are nearest supports, and a breakdown below 0.5650 deters the bullish trend and augments downward pressure. • RBNZ’s 50 bps rate reduction and forecasts of more easing can steer NZD/USD’s path, altering investor sentiment and expectations of monetary policy. • The 14-day RSI is still above the 50 level, indicating ongoing bullish momentum, but a fall below this level could signal a possible trend reversal. The NZD/USD currency pair is still trading with a bullish bias, remaining above the critical 0.5700 level despite pressure from the RBNZ’s surprise rate cut. Governor Adrian Orr’s comments indicated further easing in the next few months, which could affect market sentiment and future price action. The pair is still in an uptrend channel, with the 14-day RSI upholding the positive direction. But a firm break below 0.5650 may change the bias to negative, leaving the pair vulnerable to more downside risks. Traders will keenly observe future economic data and central bank statements for additional directional signals. NZD/USD is bullish above 0.5700 on the back of an uptrending channel and RSI above 50. Break below 0.5650 may undermine momentum, turning the sentiment bearish. Market players look to RBNZ policy outlook and pivotal resistance at 0.5790 for the next cue.  • The pair is bullish despite RBNZ’s 50 bps interest rate cut, underpinned by technical indicators. • A surge above this level may drive NZD/USD to its new two-month high at 0.5794. • The nine-day EMA of 0.5695 and the 14-day EMA of 0.5685 are key support levels. • A fall below the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5650 could see additional downward pressure. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index indicates ongoing bullish momentum unless it falls below this important threshold. • Governor Orr’s perspective on future rate reductions affects market sentiment and the pair’s long-term direction. • Traders need to watch for upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary for additional directional signals. The New Zealand dollar is still in the spotlight as traders respond to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent policy move. Governor Adrian Orr’s address brought attention to the central bank’s strategy for economic stability, with a focus on the requirement for prudent rate changes. The RBNZ lowering of the Official Cash Rate is its move to bolster growth under uncertainty globally. As inflation dynamics and jobs data become central in guiding policy, investors watch closely as these elements drive the country’s economic trajectory. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA External forces such as trade conditions and global market dynamics aside from monetary policy also determine the New Zealand dollar’s performance. As global commodity demand changes and geopolitics plays out, the currency is also sensitive to wider economic movements. The overall market forces are also brought about by changes in investor mood, especially reacting to U.S. Federal Reserve policy and general global financial health. With continued progress in local and global economies, investors stay alert to the next set of data releases and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues trading in an rising channel, reflective of consistent short-term upward motion. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to maintain a position higher than the 50 mark, confirming the bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the currency pair stands above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), further supporting strong support at the current short-term. Resistance is seen around the 0.5790 level, which is along the channel’s top line, and the major support levels are at 0.5695 and 0.5685. A strong break above resistance would drive the pair further up, and a break below support would suggest a change in market direction. FORECAST NZD/USD can continue to rise if the bullish momentum continues, with the next major resistance at 0.5790. A break above this level might propel the pair towards the latest two-month high of 0.5794, further sustaining the upbeat sentiment. The pair’s rally may be aided by positive economic news, risk taking in international markets, or any indication of less hawkish monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the buyers continue to have control, more gains towards the 0.5850 zone can be envisioned in the short term. To the downside, unless NZD/USD can hold above significant levels of support, a breakdown below 0.5650 would set the pair up for more declines. Changes in sentiment prompted by softer economic data or greater risk aversion would put downward pressure on the pair. NZD/USD would then probe lower support near 0.5516, its lowest print since October 2022. Any hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve or firmer demand for the U.S. dollar would drive the bearish move forward, and additional losses can be expected in the next few weeks.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises to Two-Month High: Weaker US Dollar and Optimism in Markets Fuel Gains

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  • February 17, 2025
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NZD/USD is on its third day of rise, hitting a two-month high of about 0.5750 as the US Dollar stays weak. The Greenback continues to face pressure following weak US Retail Sales data and a delay in Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, which have weakened investor mood. Meanwhile, hope for Trump’s strategy to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis contributes to the risk-on atmosphere, further backing the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and the anticipation of a major rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may limit further increases. Technically, last week’s break above 0.5700 reinforces the bullish scenario, and any short-term corrections offer a chance to buy on the cheap before the key RBNZ meeting. KEY LOOKOUTS        • The US Dollar is still under pressure from dismal Retail Sales and a hold-up in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, solidifying NZD/USD advances. • Optimism over Trump’s suggested solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosts market mood, giving strength to the Kiwi against the Greenback. • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive tone is counter to hopes of a large rate cut by the RBNZ, which could limit NZD/USD’s rally. • Last week’s break above the 0.5700 level adds to bullish momentum, setting NZD/USD up for further gains unless market conditions turn unexpectedly. NZD/USD gains momentum, rising to a two-month high with the US Dollar weakening in the face of soft Retail Sales and the hold-up of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The pair gets support from upbeat market mood following the hopes over Trump’s efforts in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, the widening gap between the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s planned rate reductions might cap additional gains. Technically, the break higher last week above 0.5700 supports a bullish view, and any near-term pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity prior to the important RBNZ meeting. NZD/USD rises to a two-month peak on back of persistent USD weakness and improved market mood. Yet Fed-RBNZ policy divergence could restrict further upside scope. • The pair maintains its upward momentum to around 0.5750 in the wake of persistent USD weakness. • Frustrating US retail sales and delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain to keep Greenback under the pump. • Positive sentiment with respect to how Trump is containing the Russia-Ukraine war bolsters NZD/USD’s strength. • The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve in comparison to hoped-for major cut by the RBNZ later can limit NZD/USD’s gains. • Last week’s break higher past the level of 0.5700 maintains the upside story for NZD/USD. • Any near-term correction would be a buying opportunity before the key RBNZ meeting. • The RBNZ meeting and additional US economic data releases will determine NZD/USD’s next direction. NZD/USD continues its bullish trend after breaching the key 0.5700 resistance level, reaffirming a strong bull trend. The breakout indicates additional upside potential, with the next target at 0.5800. The duo is still comfortably above major moving averages, indicating persistent buying pressure. Moreover, the recent price action also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the bullishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought levels, which may indicate a short-term pullback, but overall, the uptrend is intact as long as the price is above the 0.5700 support level. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA A corrective pullback should find support around 0.5700, a level that was resistance in the past and can now act as a solid floor for buyers. Below this, further support can be found around 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a break above 0.5750 should see further buying, driving the pair to 0.5800 and beyond. However, traders should exercise caution as the upcoming RBNZ meeting could introduce volatility, potentially influencing the Kiwi’s trajectory. Overall, the technical outlook favors the bulls, but market participants should watch for any fundamental shifts that could alter the trend. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has strengthened its bullish outlook after breaking above the key 0.5700 resistance level last week. This breakout indicates strong buying momentum, with the next potential upside target around 0.5800. The duo is trading above significant moving averages, maintaining a bullish inclination, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around overbought levels, which may result in a short-term correction. But any correction will find support at 0.5700, which has become a critical support level. Further appreciation will be seen if buyers continue to drive the prices higher, but care is to be exercised before the RBNZ meeting, which may create volatility. FORECAST NZD/USD’s recent break above the 0.5700 resistance line is a bullish indication of firm buying pressure, and there could be more to go if such momentum is maintained. A strong continuation above 0.5750 could open the door to testing the psychological level of 0.5800, which will serve as the next hurdle. If the bullish trend continues, the pair may even push higher to 0.5850, particularly if the US Dollar stays soft in the wake of softer economic information or a dovish Fed prognosis. Favorable risk attitudes and optimism over developments in geopolitics would also play in favor of the Kiwi, further augmenting its strength against the Greenback in the near term. In spite of the bullish inclination, NZD/USD is still susceptible to possible pullbacks, particularly if the next RBNZ meeting indicates aggressive rate cuts, which would soften the Kiwi. A breakdown below the 0.5700 support level may initiate a more significant correction, with the next significant support at 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. If selling pressure increases, the pair may fall towards 0.5600, where buyers might try to stem further losses. Furthermore, any US Dollar rebound, as a result of hawkish Fed statements or more robust than anticipated economic numbers, may cap NZD/USD’s upside and reverse momentum in favor of the bears.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Key Technical Levels and Market Sentiment Analysis

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  • February 11, 2025
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The NZD/USD pair is consolidating around the 0.5650 level, with immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI is still below the 50 level, which indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. A break below 0.5650 may push the pair toward the lower boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5550, with further support at 0.5516. Conversely, in the event that the pair breaks below 0.5654, it could be on its way to rallying and trying to reach its nine-week high at 0.5794 and psychological resistance at 0.5800. The technical structure calls for the fight between the bulls and the bears, with the next direction dependent on some key support and resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breach of this level could now heighten the pressure on the bears, and NZD/USD now drops toward 0.5550 then critical support at 0.5516. • The pair, above this level, could intensify short-term bullish momentum towards the 0.5794 high and psychological resistance at 0.5800. • The 14-day RSI remains below 50, meaning the buying momentum is weak, and the odds are in favor of a lower movement unless sentiment improves. • The pair is within a well-defined range. A breakout in either direction can determine the next significant trend for NZD/USD. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading through a critical area and finds immediate support near 0.5650 with resistance to the nine-day EMA at 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 will increase the bears’ pressure, send the pair to the 0.5550 region and down towards 0.5516, low since October 2022. On the upside, overcoming the hurdle at 0.5654 will boost the bulls for further moves till 0.5794 and then on to the psychological level of 0.5800. Signs. The 14-day RSI remains below 50, showing weak buying pressure, while the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern, which would be an indecisive market awaiting a breakout to determine which way the next major move is. The NZD/USD pair hovers around 0.5650, facing immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 could trigger a decline toward 0.5550, while a move above 0.5654 may strengthen bullish momentum toward 0.5794. The 14-day RSI below 50 suggests a bearish bias as the pair consolidates within a rectangular pattern. • A clear break below this level is likely to send NZD/USD to 0.5550 and potentially beyond that to the lowest level since October 2022, 0.5516. • On a break above this level, bullish short-term momentum is likely to gain strength, taking the cable toward 0.5794 and later to the psychological point of 0.5800. • Relative Strength Index is still below the 50 mark, confirming low selling pressure and thus high selling bias. • The pair breaks within a range, and a breakout in either direction could determine the next major trend for NZD/USD • If bullish momentum drives on, the next target is 0.5794, then 0.5800 and the top of the rectangle at 0.5810 • Aggressive move below the lower threshold of 0.5650 could lead to increased selling, strengthening bearish sentiment and increasing losses toward the lower support zones. • Both buyers and sellers are in limbo, with the price direction dependent on the breakout from this consolidation stage. The NZD/USD pair is at a crucial juncture, testing immediate support at 0.5650 while facing resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI has yet to cross above the 50 level, keeping the selling pressure bias with weak buying pressure. If it breaks below 0.5650, the pair might continue south toward 0.5550, then lock into a critical support area at 0.5516, which also happens to be its nadir since October 2022. Alternatively, a successful breakout above 0.5654 could propel the market into the hands of buyers and unlock the way to 0.5794, then on to the psychological resistance at 0.5800. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The range-bound situation between the two remains within a rectangle, hinting that long-term direction for market participants remains ambiguous. An exit from the rectangle will probably be the onset of the new trend, upward would indicate more renewed strength while downward would point towards further downsides. Trades must keep watch at the main levels as it can break strongly in either side, which could signal the direction for the coming movement of NZD/USD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD maintains a rectangular kind of consolidation showing indecision. The immediate resistance is the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.5654; the support region is at the 0.5650 levels. The relative strength index over 14 periods is below the 50 points, indicating there is weak purchasing pressure and strong selling pressure. A drop below 0.5650 could add pace to a fall toward 0.5550 and 0.5516, but a move above 0.5654 may push the upside toward 0.5794 and the psychological resistance at 0.5800. Given the price action is being confined to a limited range, the breakout will be a decisive move in determining the next trend direction. FORECAST NZD/USD managed to break above the nine-day EMA at 0.5654 and could have enough bullish momentum to rally towards 0.5794, which is the nine-week high that NZD/USD recently made. A strong move above this level could send the pair towards the psychological resistance at 0.5800 and then to the upper boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5810. A bullish breakout of this consolidation pattern could spur a trend reversal that attracts higher buyers and strengthens the uptrend even more. However, for consistent upside drive, the pair would require healthy fundamental support, such as positive economic data from New Zealand or a weakening U.S. dollar. On the opposite side of the fence, if NZD/USD fails to hold above the base level support at 0.5650, then bearish pressure could potentially strengthen and push it towards 0.5550. A deeper drop from here would push the pair into further losses, with the next significant stop at 0.5516 – the lowest level since October 2022. A bearish breakdown of the current rectangular pattern can trigger a selling pressure increase if global

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Steady around 0.5700, Traders Keep an Eye on US NFP and Fed Policy Cues

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  • February 7, 2025
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NZD/USD stays firm around 0.5700 as market players remain cautious of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release which is expected to have an influence on the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar keeps up its rebound momentum with support coming from a jump in Treasury yields, pushing the Dollar Index DXY toward 107.70. Market sentiment is fragile due to rising risk aversion with all these uncertainties about global trade. But ongoing discussions about tariffs by US and China could offer some comfort. Further, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to slash 50 basis points in February and put further pressure on Kiwi Dollar. KEY LOOKOUTS US Nonfarm Payrolls, which would shape monetary policy at the Fed, would impact the NZD/USD pairs volatility. • The Greenback’s rebounding, with a boost from the Treasury yields and economic data, may put upward pressure on NZD/USD if risk aversion increases. • Markets are pricing in 92% of a 50 basis-point rate cut in February, which can weigh on the New Zealand Dollar. • Risk sentiment may shape the movement of NZD/USD as US and Chinese leaders discuss potential rollbacks of tariffs. NZD/USD remains in a cautious range as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The US Dollar continues to recover, bolstered by rising Treasury yields and stronger economic data, pressuring the Kiwi Dollar. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains fragile with trade uncertainties continuing, though the discussions between the US and China regarding potential rollbacks of tariffs might bring some comfort. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to cut its rates by 50 basis points in February, adding more downside risks to NZD/USD as the market has priced in a high probability of further easing. NZD/USD remains range-bound ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data that may impact the Federal Reserve policy. The greenback has managed to regain ground, buoyed by Treasury yields, and has been exerting pressure on the Kiwi Dollar. Expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in February by the RBNZ are also affecting NZD/USD. • A US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to impact the Fed’s monetary policy and trigger market volatility. • Greenback trades are regaining strength on the back of rising treasury yields with DXY approaching 107.70. • Markets are expecting that in February, there will be a 50-point rate cut; it will give pressure on New Zealand Dollar. • Increased risk aversion due to trade and economic insecurity is impacting upside momentum for NZD/USD pairs. • The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.22% and 4.44%, supporting the US Dollar against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. • Market sentiment and the movement of NZD/USD may be influenced by the discussions between US and Chinese leaders regarding the possible rollbacks of tariffs. • NZD/USD is still relatively subdued following the weak performance of the previous session, failing to gain bullish momentum due to a cautious market outlook. NZD/USD stands at the levels around 0.5700 and is currently flat as participants take a wait-and-see approach before US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) arrives and is known to impact Federal Reserve monetary policy prospects. Meanwhile, the Dollar index continues rallying due to upward momentum in the Treasury yields; it has also pushed the Dollar Index towards levels around 107.70. Risk sentiment remains fragile as the world continues to be uncertain about global trade, especially on the US-China front, though potential tariff rollbacks may help alleviate some of the pain. Moreover, the latest US Initial Jobless Claims were higher than anticipated, which added another layer of uncertainty to the market. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Another reason the Kiwi Dollar is in a tough situation is that it is expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ, will announce a 50 basis point rate cut in February, taking interest rates to 3.75%. With market expectations at a 92% probability of additional monetary easing, NZD/USD may suffer from increased pressure on the downside. The weak price action exhibited by the pair is due to investors waiting for key economic data that will steer short-term price action. US Treasury yields continue to climb, adding further strength to the US Dollar, which restricts NZD/USD’s recovery from the previous session’s losses. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading near 0.5680, unable to make a sustainable rally as it was capped by the resistance area of 0.5700. The pair remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), suggesting a bearish trend. A break below the immediate support at 0.5660 could be extended further lower toward 0.5620. A decisive move above 0.5700 may push the pair further to the next resistance at 0.5745. The RSI is near the neutral 50 level, showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Traders will carefully monitor the US NFP releases for breakouts or further drops in NZD/USD. FORECAST NZD/USD will drop further if NFP data strengthen the case of a hawkish Federal Reserve which pushes the Dollar higher. Higher Treasury yields after a strong job report will add to the views of prolonged periods of higher interest rates, with NZD/USD falling towards key support 0.5660. If the bearish momentum is maintained, the next target could be 0.5620, with further declines towards the psychological level of 0.5600 in an extended selloff. Expectations of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February could keep the Kiwi Dollar under pressure in the near term. On the positive side, if US economic data disappoints and weakens the US Dollar, NZD/USD might recover above 0.5700. A softer NFP report might fuel speculation of an earlier-than-expected policy shift by the Federal Reserve, which would reduce the strength of the Dollar. The pair could test resistance at 0.5745, and further gains may extend toward 0.5780. Any positive news in US-China trade relations, such as the rollbacks of tariffs, will enhance risk sentiment and

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