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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Falls Close to 0.5700 as China’s Deflationary Pressures Hit Kiwi Sentiment

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  • March 10, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair fell close to the 0.5700 level in Monday’s Asian session, weighed down by worsening deflationary pressures in China. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February fell 0.7% year-over-year, the steepest decline since January 2024, fueling concerns over soft domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy—New Zealand’s major trading partner. This has taken a heavy toll on the Kiwi. Yet, pair downside momentum can be curtailed by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts in light of weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls. The market waits now for Tuesday’s US CPI release for further cues on Fed policy and overall market direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s sharper-than-expected decline in CPI signals weak domestic demand, adding pressure on the Kiwi from the strong trade links with China. • Markets await Tuesday’s US CPI data, which may impact Federal Reserve rate expectations and set the tone for NZD/USD action. • Soft US jobs data stokes rate cut speculation, which may cap USD strength and underpin a small NZD/USD rally. • International risk sentiment and geopolitics could affect safe-haven demand for USD, influencing near-term volatility in NZD/USD trading. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to be under pressure, trading close to the 0.5700 level in the wake of increasing deflationary pressures in China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. China’s CPI fall in February indicates poor consumer demand and puts additional bearish pressure on the Kiwi. Downside in the pair, however, may be capped as weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls data has reinforced expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors now look to Tuesday’s US CPI report, which will be instrumental in determining market sentiment and the short-term direction of the NZD/USD pair. NZD/USD hovers around 0.5700, weighed down by China’s worsening deflation and poor domestic demand. Downside is capped by weaker US jobs data, which enhances Fed rate cut hopes. All eyes now on Tuesday’s US CPI data for new direction. • NZD/USD quotes at 0.5700, weighed down by China’s emerging deflationary pressures. • China’s CPI dropped 0.7% in February, the largest fall since January 2024, indicating soft domestic demand. • New Zealand Dollar falls, as China is one of its key trading partners and economic slowdown dents Kiwi mood. • Soft US Nonfarm Payrolls data boosts expectations of several Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. • Fed policy direction continues to be prudent, with officials emphasizing caution and the requirement for data-driven decision-making. • US CPI releases on Tuesday are likely to be a major driver of the next direction in NZD/USD. • Market sentiment and global risk flows will continue to drive short-term currency pair movement. China’s increasing deflationary pressures have created new doubts about the strength of the world economy, particularly for nations such as New Zealand that enjoy strong trade relations with China. The steep drop in China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is an indicator of weak domestic consumption and weak household demand. As one of New Zealand’s largest export markets, any Chinese economic slowdown would tend to influence the Kiwi economy indirectly. Market players are becoming more cautious, observing how China’s domestic challenges may impact overall economic activity and global trade flows. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Alternatively, the United States also has its own share of uncertainties, especially after the recent Nonfarm Payrolls reading indicated a moderation in job growth. This has promoted increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. While policymakers have indicated a data-dependent policy, future economic indicators—particularly the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)—will have a crucial influence on forming expectations. These global macroeconomic trends are expected to drive investor sentiment and near-term policy choices in major economies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD continues to come under bear pressure, trading near major support areas at the 0.5700 level. The pair has not been able to sustain buying momentum, reflecting that sellers still have the upper hand. A persistent break below this support level could pave the way for additional declines, but a bounce back above near-term resistance levels may reflect a potential change in mood. Traders will carefully observe price behavior around these major levels for reversal or breakout signals, particularly before high-impact economic releases such as the US CPI report. FORECAST If the coming economic data, specifically the US CPI, indicates softer inflation, this would reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and possibly weaken the US Dollar. This situation might present some upside potential for NZD/USD to recover to higher resistance levels. Moreover, any indication of policy stimulus or stabilization in China may enhance market sentiment for the Kiwi and present additional scope for recovery. Conversely, in the event that US inflation numbers turn higher than anticipated, this can temper expectations of premature rate reductions by the Fed, strengthening the US Dollar and putting additional pressure on NZD/USD. Additionally, ongoing deflationary indications and subdued Chinese domestic demand might further drain the New Zealand Dollar. In that scenario, the duo can find it difficult to stay above major support levels and might experience further falls in the near future.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Bats Below 0.5750 Amid Market Jitters and Significant Economic Events

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  • March 7, 2025
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NZD/USD continues to lose steam below 0.5750 amid market jitters in advance of China’s trade balance release and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement. The pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading at around 0.5730 in the Asian session. Meanwhile, international trade events, such as Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian imports from threatened tariffs and Canada’s slowdown in retaliatory tariffs, are still influencing market sentiment. The US labor market remains strong, with initial unemployment claims falling and NFP to increase to 160K in February. Besides that, China’s promise of more stimulus and a dovish move from the People’s Bank of China have assisted somewhat in support of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). But fears surrounding US policy uncertainty and possible Fed rate actions deter the strength of the US Dollar, placing the NZD/USD currency pair in a subdued trading band. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s trade balance report is followed closely by traders, which has the potential to affect NZD sentiment considering that China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. • The anticipated increase in US job additions to 160K has the potential to affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and influence the strength of USD against NZD. • Market sentiment is affected by Trump’s tariff exemptions and Canada’s postponed retaliatory tariffs, influencing risk appetite and currency fluctuations in the forex market. • Promises of additional stimulus and possible rate reductions by the People’s Bank of China would help support the NZD, offsetting overall market uncertainties. NZD/USD continues to be pressured as investors wait for major economic releases, including the release of China’s trade balance and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market mood is influenced by continued global trade news, such as Trump’s tariff exemptions on Mexico and Canada and Canada’s postponement of retaliatory tariffs. In the meantime, hopes of more stimulus from the government of China and the dovishness of the People’s Bank of China lend some strength to the New Zealand Dollar. But US policy uncertainty fears and the prospect of the Federal Reserve responding to slowing economy and inflation keep the US Dollar down, keeping the NZD/USD currency pair in a cautious range. NZD/USD is trading with caution below 0.5750 as the market looks to China’s trade data and the US NFP report. Global trade events and China’s stimulus plans drive sentiment, with uncertainty over Fed policy holding back the USD. • The pair is under selling pressure ahead of major economic data releases, as market caution prevails. • Investors are extremely careful watching China’s trade data, which has the potential to affect NZD due to China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. • The employment market is likely to improve, with payroll additions climbing to 160K, having a bearing on USD strength and Fed policy expectations. • Exemptions of Mexican and Canadian imports from potential tariffs under the USMCA affect global trade sentiment and risk appetite. • Canada delays its second round of tariffs on US goods until April 2, lowering near-term trade tensions. • Pledges of further economic stimulus by Chinese officials help support NZD with concern over global economic growth. • Expectations in the market move towards possible action by the Fed to curb economic slowdown, influencing movement in USD in the forex market. The market scene is still influenced by global economic events and policy measures, shaping investor perception and currency movement. Ahead of the release of China’s trade balance figures, market players are watching closely for its possible implications on international trade and economic expansion. With China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, any change in the dynamics of trade may have spillover effects on the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the United States’ performance in its labor market is also being eyed, with the next Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due to provide some clues about trends in the employment market and the overall stability of the economy. These events reflect the interlinkages between economies around the world and why such economic indicators need to be closely tracked. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Finally, policy announcements from major economies also have a big impact on market sentiment. The United States’ recent waiver of Mexican and Canadian products from threatened tariffs under the USMCA lightens trade tensions, while Canada’s hesitation on retaliatory tariffs adds to a stable trade atmosphere. In the meantime, China’s agreement to further stimulus measures indicates an activist approach toward maintaining economic growth, supporting confidence in its market policies. While central banks and governments deal with these economic woes, their actions will keep driving financial markets, business plans, and global trade relationships. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is in a cautious range, unable to build steam above significant resistance levels. The pair recently put an end to its losing streak near 0.5730 but has resistance at the 0.5750 level. A continued break above this level may pave the way for additional upside, while support on the downside is seen around 0.5700. Moving averages reflect a bearish to neutral bias, with sellers in control unless there is a breakout. Furthermore, momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD reflect a lack of strong bullish conviction, leaving the pair susceptible to additional consolidation in the near term. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience a rise, particularly if China’s trade balance figures are better than expected or if additional stimulus is introduced. A robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report would also enhance risk appetite, thereby indirectly favoring commodity-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. Technically, a move above the 0.5750 resistance level may pave the way for additional gains, with the next stop being around 0.5780–0.5800. A softer US Dollar, fueled by speculation of Federal Reserve policy changes, would further enhance the pair’s bullish momentum. To the downside, NZD/USD is exposed to bearish forces in case of disappointing Chinese economic statistics, which would trigger concerns of decelerating worldwide trade. An upbeat US NFP reading would further solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias, firming up the US Dollar and exerting bearish pressure on NZD/USD. If the pair cannot

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Sustains Strength With China’s Optimistic Services PMI and RBNZ Leadership Change

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  • March 5, 2025
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NZD/USD sustains strength at about 0.5650 as China’s Services PMI picked up optimistically despite a substantial leadership change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The more-than-anticipated increase in China’s Services PMI to 51.4 indicates healthy economic momentum that can affect the New Zealand Dollar on account of good trade relationships. At the same time, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation introduces uncertainty, as Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby takes over on an acting basis until March 31. On the US side, the Greenback comes under pressure as markets respond to newly imposed tariffs by President Trump and rumors of a policy flip. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at around 105.70 amidst increasing fears regarding economic growth and trade policies. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s Services PMI rise to 51.4 indicates economic strength, which could strengthen the New Zealand Dollar as a result of robust trade relations. • Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is uncertain, where Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will hold position temporarily until March 31, waiting for an interim replacement. • President Trump’s tariff increase on Canada, Mexico, and China is under scrutiny, and there are rumors that he might reverse policies in face of economic uncertainty. • US Dollar Index (DXY) near 105.70 captures market anxiety regarding trade tensions and possible changes in Trump’s tariff policy. NZD/USD is holding firm at 0.5650 following a higher-than-expected China Services PMI and major events at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). China’s PMI increased to 51.4, supporting economic durability and possibly underpinning the New Zealand Dollar because of close trading relationships. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is an added uncertainty, with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby holding the fort until a temporary appointment is made. On the American side, President Trump’s latest tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China are under fire, with talk of him revisiting his policy in light of economic worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady at 105.70, a measure of market jitters over trade tensions and policy changes. NZD/USD remains stable around 0.5650 amid a positive China Services PMI and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation. On the other hand, US tariff concerns drag on the US Dollar. • The pair remains stable around 0.5650 amid positive Chinese economic data and leadership changes at the RBNZ. • The index increased to 51.4 in February, above forecast, and points to economic resilience, which could be supportive of the New Zealand Dollar. • Governor Adrian Orr resigns, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby on an acting basis until March 31. • President Trump’s tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China raise market fears, with talk of policy change reversal. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is traded around 105.70, under pressure from below as trade tensions and fears of economic slowdown weigh. • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggests that Trump is considering revising his tariff position within less than 48 hours of imposition. • Economic statistics and trade policy from China, New Zealand, and the US continue to drive market movement and currency performance. NZD/USD stays stable as events on the global economic and political front continue. China’s Services PMI unexpectedly climbed to 51.4, indicating a stronger economy, which is important to New Zealand given their robust trade relationship. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also changing leadership, as Governor Adrian Orr has resigned. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby has taken over as acting governor until March 31, and this brings with it an element of transition within the nation’s financial leadership. Though these elements have contributed to confidence in the market, there are still doubts on how new leadership will influence monetary policies in the future. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Internationally, the US is increasingly plagued by concerns with its recent tariffs. President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has raised questions over possible economic impacts. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the administration could revisit the tariffs, but reports say Trump is keen to keep them in place. This constant uncertainty over trade policies may affect global markets and investor sentiment as companies and governments weigh the long-term effects of these actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading flat at the 0.5650 level, reflecting consolidation following recent market action. The duo encounters instant resistance around the 0.5680 handle, with a break higher perhaps paving the way for more upside momentum. On the flip side, the area of 0.5620 has been a recent support level that has held firm. The 50-day moving average is in a neutral trend, and RSI hovers in a balanced zone, indicating indecision in the market. If the buying momentum picks up, the pair would challenge higher levels of resistance, while a breakdown below significant support levels would initiate further downward movement. FORECAST NZD/USD may steady higher above the 0.5680 resistance level and potentially as far as 0.5720 in the near term. A convincing breakout above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment and drive the pair to 0.5750. Supporting factors for this upward movement would be sustained economic strength in China, favorable sentiment regarding New Zealand’s trade prospects, and weakness in the US Dollar if market worries about trade tariffs increase. Moreover, any dovish communication from the Federal Reserve or de-escalation of US trade tensions would further propel upside movement. To the downside, as selling pressure builds, NZD/USD may test support around 0.5620, and a breakdown below this may see a further fall to 0.5580. A stronger US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand or expectations of hawkish monetary policy, may speed up this decline. On top of that, any negative Chinese economic news or doubt about Reserve Bank of New Zealand leadership succession might act as a drag on the New Zealand Dollar. Under deteriorating global risk sentiment, the pair might experience further losses, with 0.5550 being a key support level to monitor.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Outlook: Bullish Trend Remains Above 0.5700 Despite RBNZ Policy Change

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  • February 19, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair bounced back above 0.5700 after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s speech and has continued with its bullish trend despite the central bank reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points. The currency pair is still within an uptrend channel, with the 14-day RSI remaining above the 50 mark, which supports the positive outlook. Immediate support lies at the nine- and 14-day EMAs of 0.5695 and 0.5685, respectively, while resistance is seen at the 0.5790 level, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. A break below 0.5650 could weaken the bullish bias, potentially pushing the pair toward its lowest level since October 2022 at 0.5516. KEY LOOKOUTS • NZD/USD encounters resistance at the top of the ascending channel at 0.5790, with a breakout likely taking the price to the two-month high of 0.5794. • Nine- and 14-day EMAs are nearest supports, and a breakdown below 0.5650 deters the bullish trend and augments downward pressure. • RBNZ’s 50 bps rate reduction and forecasts of more easing can steer NZD/USD’s path, altering investor sentiment and expectations of monetary policy. • The 14-day RSI is still above the 50 level, indicating ongoing bullish momentum, but a fall below this level could signal a possible trend reversal. The NZD/USD currency pair is still trading with a bullish bias, remaining above the critical 0.5700 level despite pressure from the RBNZ’s surprise rate cut. Governor Adrian Orr’s comments indicated further easing in the next few months, which could affect market sentiment and future price action. The pair is still in an uptrend channel, with the 14-day RSI upholding the positive direction. But a firm break below 0.5650 may change the bias to negative, leaving the pair vulnerable to more downside risks. Traders will keenly observe future economic data and central bank statements for additional directional signals. NZD/USD is bullish above 0.5700 on the back of an uptrending channel and RSI above 50. Break below 0.5650 may undermine momentum, turning the sentiment bearish. Market players look to RBNZ policy outlook and pivotal resistance at 0.5790 for the next cue.  • The pair is bullish despite RBNZ’s 50 bps interest rate cut, underpinned by technical indicators. • A surge above this level may drive NZD/USD to its new two-month high at 0.5794. • The nine-day EMA of 0.5695 and the 14-day EMA of 0.5685 are key support levels. • A fall below the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5650 could see additional downward pressure. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index indicates ongoing bullish momentum unless it falls below this important threshold. • Governor Orr’s perspective on future rate reductions affects market sentiment and the pair’s long-term direction. • Traders need to watch for upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary for additional directional signals. The New Zealand dollar is still in the spotlight as traders respond to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent policy move. Governor Adrian Orr’s address brought attention to the central bank’s strategy for economic stability, with a focus on the requirement for prudent rate changes. The RBNZ lowering of the Official Cash Rate is its move to bolster growth under uncertainty globally. As inflation dynamics and jobs data become central in guiding policy, investors watch closely as these elements drive the country’s economic trajectory. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA External forces such as trade conditions and global market dynamics aside from monetary policy also determine the New Zealand dollar’s performance. As global commodity demand changes and geopolitics plays out, the currency is also sensitive to wider economic movements. The overall market forces are also brought about by changes in investor mood, especially reacting to U.S. Federal Reserve policy and general global financial health. With continued progress in local and global economies, investors stay alert to the next set of data releases and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues trading in an rising channel, reflective of consistent short-term upward motion. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to maintain a position higher than the 50 mark, confirming the bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the currency pair stands above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), further supporting strong support at the current short-term. Resistance is seen around the 0.5790 level, which is along the channel’s top line, and the major support levels are at 0.5695 and 0.5685. A strong break above resistance would drive the pair further up, and a break below support would suggest a change in market direction. FORECAST NZD/USD can continue to rise if the bullish momentum continues, with the next major resistance at 0.5790. A break above this level might propel the pair towards the latest two-month high of 0.5794, further sustaining the upbeat sentiment. The pair’s rally may be aided by positive economic news, risk taking in international markets, or any indication of less hawkish monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the buyers continue to have control, more gains towards the 0.5850 zone can be envisioned in the short term. To the downside, unless NZD/USD can hold above significant levels of support, a breakdown below 0.5650 would set the pair up for more declines. Changes in sentiment prompted by softer economic data or greater risk aversion would put downward pressure on the pair. NZD/USD would then probe lower support near 0.5516, its lowest print since October 2022. Any hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve or firmer demand for the U.S. dollar would drive the bearish move forward, and additional losses can be expected in the next few weeks.

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