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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Prices Fall Amid Increasing US Inventories and Trade Tariff Fears

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  • February 20, 2025
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WTI Crude Oil prices fell from a one-week high on Thursday, dropping to the $71.70 region as increasing US crude inventories and fears of possible trade tariffs by former President Donald Trump dampened market sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported US crude stocks at 3.34 million barrels higher, exacerbating concerns over a supply surplus. Moreover, concerns over diminishing fuel demand from the Eurozone and China weighed on oil prices further. Yet, supply cuts in Russia from a Ukrainian drone attack and a weaker US Dollar helped cushion, preventing losses deeper. Traders now look to official US crude inventory data for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reported 3.34 million barrel build in US crude stocks sparks oversupply concerns, weighing on WTI prices below $72. • Concerns that proposed trade tariffs may curb global economic growth and lower fuel demand contribute to the bearish tone in the oil market. • A Ukrainian drone attack has lowered oil volumes through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by 30%-40%, possibly capping deeper losses for crude prices. • Even if the Fed becomes more hawkish, a weak USD may contribute some support to oil prices and impact near-term market direction. WTI Crude Oil prices are again under pressure as rising US crude stockpiles and trade tariff uncertainty weigh on sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) also indicated a 3.34 million barrel build in US crude stocks, fueling concerns of an oversupplied market. Uncertainty surrounding possible trade tariffs from former President Donald Trump also contributes to concerns over declining global fuel demand, especially from the Eurozone and China. But support comes from some quarter with supply disturbances in Russia, occasioned by a Ukrainian drone attack cutting oil deliveries from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by 30%-40%. A softer US Dollar, irrespective of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position, may also help to blunt losses. Now, market players wait for US crude inventory figures to gauge further price action. WTI Crude Oil prices fall with rising US crude inventories and trade tariff worries dampening sentiment. Russian supply disruptions and weaker USD provide some respite. • Crude oil prices fall back from a one-week high, down to the $71.70 region on renewed selling pressure. • The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced a 3.34 million barrel increase in US crude inventories, which fueled concerns about oversupply. • Prospective trade tariffs by previous President Donald Trump contribute to anxiety around slower economic expansion globally, weighing on fuel consumption. • Economic uncertainty in the Eurozone and China and slowing Eurozone exacerbate concerns surrounding lower crude oil consumption in primary markets. • A Ukrainian aerial drone attack lowers Caspian Pipeline Consortium crude flows by 30%-40%, serving to cap additional decline. • Even with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, a weaker USD offers some respite to oil prices. • Official US crude inventory data is awaited by traders for more information on supply-demand balance and upcoming price direction. WTI Crude Oil prices are under pressure on the back of a combination of increasing US crude inventories and global economic woes. The most recent information from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a 3.34 million barrel gain in US crude inventories, triggering concerns over an oversupply situation. Secondly, uncertainty about possible trade tariffs, especially those associated with erstwhile President Donald Trump, has been driving fears over decelerating economic growth and lower fuel demand. Weak leading indicators from large economies such as the Eurozone and China also contribute to the risk-averse market mood, prompting traders to be cautious about short-term price stability. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the supply side, geopolitical tensions remain a factor in market dynamics. A recent Ukrainian drone strike on Russian oil facilities has resulted in a 30%-40% cut in oil supplies from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, pointing to possible supply disruptions. Though such incidents may cap the extent of steep price falls, market players still look towards overarching economic considerations and inventory levels for more definitive direction. Furthermore, the weakening US Dollar, notwithstanding the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, may offer some indirect boost to crude oil consumption. As investors weigh the dynamics of supply and demand, focus is on future inventory releases and economic data that may influence market mood in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil prices are resisted at the $73.00 level, a top that halted the recent rally. The retreat from this one-week high indicates selling pressure, with immediate support at the $71.50-$71.70 region. A move below here may bring with it further losses towards the psychological $70.00 level. On the upside, continued buying above $73.00 may drive prices towards the subsequent resistance at $74.50-$75.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to neutral levels, and there is no strong momentum dominance, while moving averages indicate a subdued outlook where the 50-day MA provides dynamic resistance. Traders will be keeping a close eye on price action at major support and resistance levels to gauge the next direction. FORECAST WTI Crude Oil prices in the short term could be under pressure from increasing US crude inventories and worries about declining global demand. The recent API report of a 3.34 million barrel rise in crude stocks indicates an oversupplied market, which would cap any meaningful price bounce. Moreover, concerns over possible trade tariffs and economic instability in big economies such as the Eurozone and China could also bear down on demand. If the next official US crude stocks figures continue to show increases in inventories, prices would likely see more falls, potentially through breaking important psychological support levels. Conversely, possible upside action in crude oil prices cannot be discounted, especially if geopolitical concerns intensify. Supply cuts from Russia as a result of the Ukrainian drone strike have already cut Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil supplies by 30%-40%, which should lend some support. Also, a softening US Dollar, even with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish attitude, could enhance crude purchasing power, which would result in a moderate recovery. If demand picks up in China

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Oil Struggles Amid Supply Concerns and Market Volatility

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  • February 7, 2025
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WTI crude oil remains under pressure, heading for a third consecutive weekly decline amid rising US crude stockpiles, weaker demand signals, and Trump’s push for increased domestic oil production. While Saudi Aramco’s price hike, driven by growing demand from China and India, offers some support, geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions continue to influence market volatility. Technical analysis indicates that WTI faces important resistance around $71.50 and remains sensitive upside if it breaks above $72.50, while persistent downside risks exist if the market falls below $69.50. On balance, prices of oil remain more responsive than ever to dynamics of supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic trends, hence inherently uncertain in the short run. KEY LOOKOUTS • US President Donald Trump’s commitment to boost domestic oil output increases price pressures, prompting worries over supply surplus and market stability. • A sharp 8.664 million-barrel jump in US crude inventories signaled weakening demand, beating expectations and adding bearish pressure on WTI prices. • In response to soaring demand from China and India, Saudi Aramco hiked prices, negating supply disruption caused by the US sanctions on Russian oil. • The retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US oil and LNG inject market uncertainty but the upcoming talks between Trump and Xi may still bring hope to ease trade tensions. WTI crude oil prices are having a hard time finding stability, and they fell for the third week in a row amid supply and demand concerns. US President Donald Trump’s promise to increase domestic oil production is putting further pressure on prices, which creates fear of an oversupplied market. Also, a major 8.664 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories indicates weak demand, and that is increasing bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco’s price hike, driven by a rising demand from China and India as well as supply disruptions out of Russia, provides some support. Trade tensions between the US and China further complicate the outlook, though potential tariff rollback discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping may ease market uncertainty. WTI crude is on its way to its third consecutive weekly decrease as a sharp increase in crude inventories hints at weakened U.S. demand, though at least Saudi Arabia’s price bump, bolstered by soaring Asian demand from India and China, is trying to prop up. • WTI Crude remains one step away to its third-consecutive weekly slide, despite making a slight rest in the selloff trajectory. • US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to boost domestic oil production, putting pressure on prices and heightening fears of a supply surplus. • A stunning 8.664 million-barrel build in US crude inventories—well above estimates—points to softer demand and bears down on oil prices. • Stronger demand from China and India, along with supply disruptions from Russia, forced Saudi Aramco to increase its oil prices, which was somewhat supportive for the market. • China retaliated against US oil, LNG, and coal with retaliatory tariffs even as the two leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping, continue negotiating a trade deal. • The renewed US push to eliminate Iranian oil exports could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market, creating potential supply risks. • Oil prices remain under pressure due to high supply levels, weak demand signals, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies. WTI crude oil prices are under pressure, heading for a third consecutive weekly decline despite a temporary pause in their four-day losing streak. Market sentiment remains bearish as US President Donald Trump reaffirms his commitment to increasing domestic oil production, aiming to push prices lower. This already paints a picture where a supply surplus looms in the horizon, an added weight on crude prices. To compound matters, US crude stockpiles surged by 8.664 million barrels, way above market expectations, hinting at weakening demand and attributing to the downtrend in oil prices. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Saudi Aramco, on the other hand, was raising oil prices. Increasing demand from China and India and the supply disruptions in Russia due to US sanctions gave some support to the market. Trade tensions between the US and China continued adding volatility, and Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on US oil and LNG. But hopes for relieving tensions continue as both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to engage in talks over possible rollbacks of tariffs. Moreover, the renewed US drive to eliminate Iranian oil exports introduces supply risks that may result in further escalation of fluctuations in the oil market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil currently encounters significant resistance near the $71.50 level, struggling to hold on to an upward momentum in the wake of a four-day losing spree. The 50-day moving average is hovering around $72.00, which is a key resistance zone, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below the 50 mark, which means that the bullish momentum is weak. On the downside, immediate support is seen near $69.50, and a break below this level may accelerate declines toward the $68.00 psychological mark. MACD indicator indicates bearish continuation of the trend, as the signal line remains below the histogram. WTI, in order to have a possible reversal, has to break above $72.50 decisively, which might then open a way for the retest of the resistance zone at $75.00. FORECAST WTI crude oil is prone to rebounding if the mentioned above resistance zones are broken. A break above $71.50 can be sustained and attract buying interest toward the resistance zone of $72.50, where the 50-day moving average is aligned. In case the momentum picks up, a rally toward $75.00 is possible, especially if geopolitical risks escalate, such as Middle East tensions or supply disruptions. Any positive news on US-China trade relations, such as rollbacks in tariffs, will help boost global demand sentiment and provide further upside momentum. A weaker US dollar may also provide support to crude prices as it makes oil cheaper for foreign buyers. On the negative side, WTI is still susceptible to further declines if supply pressures continue

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Stuck at $72 on US-China Trade War and Iran Supply Risks

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  • February 5, 2025
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WTI crude oil trades near $72 per barrel as it struggles on US-China trade tensions and the rising supply risks from Iran. The market has apparently downplayed the impact of the trade war even after China announced new tariffs on US imports of crude oil and LNG. However, oil prices remain under pressure after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks persist as US President Donald Trump reinstates his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to cut its oil exports to zero. With OPEC+ maintaining its gradual production increase plans, oil prices may experience further volatility in the coming sessions. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI crude remains close to $72. US-China tensions and growing US crude oil stockpiles add pressure. • China sets fresh tariffs on imports of US crude, LNG, and other supplies, injecting volatility into the already uncertain global demand for oil. • The maximum pressure campaign waged by Trump on Iran to try to drive exports to zero further tightens supply and feeds geo-political tension. • OPEC+ reiterates its gradual increase in production policy, taking away the EIA from its monitoring sources, thereby changing the dynamics of future oil supply expectations. WTI crude oil stays on the back foot at $72 per barrel as market players digest the impact of US-China trade tensions, the increase in US crude inventories, and the geopolitical risks in Iran. The new tariffs China imposed on US imports of crude and LNG introduce uncertainty to global demand. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles are building for the third consecutive week according to the American Petroleum Institute. In other news, US President Donald Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign targets zeroing Iran’s oil exports, a development that would fuel geopolitical tensions, which can be a potential risk to supply dynamics. Furthermore, OPEC+ reaffirms its gradual increase strategy of production and removes the US Energy Information Administration from the monitoring sources in its move further into the future shaping of oil price trends. WTI crude oil remains near $72 as US-China trade tensions, rising US crude inventories, and Iran-related supply risks weigh on market sentiment. China’s new tariffs on US crude add uncertainty, while Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran fuels geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, OPEC+ sticks to its gradual production increase strategy, influencing future oil prices. • Crude oil could not take momentum with cautious market sentiment on geopolitics and economy. • New tariffs on Chinese imports of U.S. crude and LNG continue to put more pressure on oil demand globally • Renewed “maximum pressure” campaign to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero from Donald Trump further escalate geopolitical risks. • API: +5.025 million bbl increase in U.S. crude stock which will heighten concerns about the potential for an oversupply buildup. • Oil traders seem to downplay the immediate impact of new tariffs on demand. • OPEC+ confirms its plan to increase oil output gradually and removes the EIA from its monitoring sources. • WTI prices are unstable due to supply and demand factors. WTI crude oil prices remain near $72 per barrel as global markets react to a mix of trade tensions, supply risks, and inventory build-ups. This week, China issued newly imposed tariffs on US crude and imports of LNG, raising concerns over weak demand, but the market seems to play down at least its short-term impact. Meanwhile, American Petroleum Institute (API) report shows a significant increase of 5.025 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, its third straight weekly rise and nurturing fears of oversupply. A weak rebound after posting a 3% decline just the previous days still leaves oil prices in state of flux today as traders play out these dual dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Adding in geopolitics’ role, meanwhile, US President Donald Trump rolled back his pressure campaign to ensure Iran’s exports go to zero. This would knock off about 1.5 million barrels daily from global supplies, adding further uncertainty to the oil markets. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ has reaffirmed its plan for a gradual resumption of increasing oil production alongside removing the United States Energy Information Administration from their list of monitored sources. Together with the mixed geopolitical developments going on and uncertain market sentiment, WTI crude prices may not be spared additional volatility in trading sessions ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is still under bearish pressure as it fails to stay above the $72 level. The price has been trading below key moving averages, which indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are showing signs of a bearish crossover, which means further downside risk. RSI is still close to the oversold zone, which would mean that there is a possibility of having consolidation or a minor bounce before it embarks on another leg down. The support areas are near $71.50 and $70.00, whereas resistance is located around $73.50 and $75.00. A stronger break through support will add to pressure selling, whereas breaking above resistance may lead to a short-term recovery. FORECAST WTI crude oil may rebound if market sentiment changes due to geopolitical supply risks or an improved global demand outlook. A strong push above the $73.50 resistance level may trigger fresh buying momentum, with the next key targets around $75.00 and $76.50. Any unexpected production cuts from OPEC+ or escalating tensions in the Middle East could further support prices. Additionally, if the US and China take steps to ease trade tensions or undertake economic stimulus measures, oil demand expectations may improve with a rise to their advantage in increasing WTI prices. Confirmation of a recovery trend can be elicited from technical indicators like RSI and MACD turning into bullish. On the downside, WTI crude oil has susceptibility to further declines especially as global demand deteriorates due to sustained US-China trade tensions. A sustained break below the $71.50 support level could result in a deeper correction, with key downside targets at $70.00 and $68.50. The

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude at $73 with Supply Fears and Tariffs Threat from Donald Trump

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  • January 31, 2025
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Prices for crude West Texas Intermediate soared to about $73.00 as worries of increased supply loomed, as former President Donald Trump has warned of his intentions to enforce a 25% tariff against both Canadian and Mexican oil exported into the country due to these two countries being main sources for smuggling fentanyl, though a definite decision yet is not established. The uncertainty of the proposed tariffs, coupled with existing geopolitics, such as Russia sanctions, restrictions on Venezuelan oil, and pressure on Iran, has added volatility to the oil market. Furthermore, on February 3, traders have been on high alert as the OPEC+ meeting will discuss production policies as well as Trump’s drive for lower oil prices. Market expectations are that OPEC+ will continue to do what it is doing, and any increase in production may begin in April. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets await clarity on Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican oil, which could significantly impact U.S. crude imports and global price • Traders expect discussions on production strategies, with potential adjustments as Trump pressures Saudi Arabia and the group to lower oil prices. • Sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, as well as U.S. efforts to refill the strategic petroleum reserve, could further elevate oil price volatility. • China, the world’s largest oil importer, will respond to potential U.S. tariffs and its economic policies to influence global crude demand. WTI crude oil prices are now experiencing increased volatility amid traders’ keen interest on important events, including another potential 25% tariff by Trump on Canadian and Mexican oil, which could interrupt imports of U.S. crude oil. The next OPEC+ meeting scheduled on February 3 is likely to discuss production strategies as pressures mount on Saudi Arabia to reduce prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, add further supply concerns, while U.S. efforts to refill the strategic petroleum reserve may boost demand. Meanwhile, China’s response to potential U.S. tariffs and its economic policies remain a critical factor in global oil market stability. WTI crude oil prices remain volatile as markets await Trump’s decision on a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican oil, potentially disrupting U.S. imports. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on February 3 and geopolitical tensions, including sanctions on Russia and Venezuela, add further uncertainty to global oil markets. • Uncertainty looms as markets await Trump’s final decision on imposing tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil, which could disrupt U.S. crude imports. • WTI crude prices have risen to around $73.00 as supply disruptions and geopolitical risks weigh on the market. • Traders expect the oil production strategy to be discussed, with Saudi Arabia being forced to lower crude prices. • Sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, and tensions in key oil-producing regions, continue to fuel oil market volatility. • Reserve replenishment efforts may boost oil demand and influence global price trends. • China, being the world’s biggest importer, will be affected by its economic policies and the possible U.S. tariffs on its imports. • Traders are still wary as oil price movements are driven by political decisions, supply chain disruptions, and upcoming OPEC+ strategies. WTI crude oil prices have risen to almost $73.00, driven by supply concerns following Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian and Mexican oil exports. The former US president threatened the imposition of a 25 percent tariff to counter the shipment of fentanyl and threw uncertainty on the global markets for oil. Such a move may be destabilizing to imports of crude from abroad since these are supplied mostly by Canada and Mexico. On top of all these, geopolitics remains rife with uncertainties like US sanctions against Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. Investors are also paying close attention to U.S. efforts to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which may weigh further on demand and price stability. WTI Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Another point of focus is OPEC+ scheduled to meet on February 3, when it is expected to deliberate on strategies for production with Trump applying pressure on Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices. While market expectation is that OPEC+ may continue with current supply policy, any increase in production is bound to start April. Moreover, China’s actions on potential tariffs from the US and its fiscal policies will set the tone on global crude demand. With multifarious uncertainties that surround supply and demand as well as geopolitical action, traders stay cautious and will expect further turbulence in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS At press time, WTI crude oil has staged a short-term rebound from two days of decline and is trading around $73.00. It has been able to sustain above the previously mentioned spot support near the key level of $71.50 at the 50-day moving average line and could continue to be bullish if this support holds. The next resistance zone is seen near $74.20, but stronger resistance is pegged around $75.50. The RSI stands at levels close to 55, indicating a moderate degree of bullish momentum but still not in an overbought region. A final breakout above $74.20 can take this market higher to the resistance area at $76.00 while a fall below $71.50 opens it up for a drop toward $70.00 with increased bearish pressure in the short term. Market sentiment is subject to political risks and OPEC + decisions set to release next week. FORECAST If the tensions and supply concerns are maintained, WTI crude oil prices might continue the trend upward. If the price manages to break out above the strong resistance at $74.20, further upward moves are possible toward $75.50 and then to $76.00 in the near term. The more bullish oil prices would remain if OPEC+ continues with or even reduces its production levels. Moreover, any indication of the imposition of 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican oil by Trump will also lead to supply curtailment into the U.S., thus fueling prices higher. Geopolitical tensions such as the ongoing U.S. sanctions against Russia, Venezuela, and Iran can also lead to a risk premium

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