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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Steady Before US Jobs Data Amid Easing US-China Trade Tensions

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  • June 6, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices are steady at $62.20 as the market prepares for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, an important indicator that can sway the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Investors are also taking hope from signals of bettering US-China trade relations, after a constructive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. A reduction in trade tensions, particularly with China as the globe’s biggest oil importer, underpins oil prices by increasing optimism on steady global demand. Traders are upbeat but wary, with the next big price catalyst likely to be the upcoming US jobs report. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look to May’s jobs data, which can set the stage for future Fed interest rate action. • Weakness in labor demand could fuel rumors of rate cuts, boosting commodity prices such as oil. • A positive telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi helps ease tensions, enhancing global oil demand prospects. • WTI crude consolidates around $62.20, as markets exercise caution prior to high-impact data and geopolitical events. WTI oil prices are trading in a stable range of $62.20 as investors have opted for a wait-and-watch game before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The jobs report is likely to provide new clues to the Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and any evidence of softening labor demand could be supporting expectations of dovish policy. In the meantime, oil is underpinned by increasing optimism about US-China trade relations, after a cordial conversation between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Since China is the world’s biggest oil importer, relaxing trade tensions are viewed as a bullish crudes’ demand factor, which assists in stabilizing market sentiment. WTI crude maintains its position close to $62.20 as markets wait for the US NFP reading for indications on Fed policy. Hope of strengthening US-China trade relations is also supporting oil prices. Traders are on guard but optimistic about stability in demand. • WTI crude trades flat at $62.20 during European sessions. • US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May is due at 12:30 GMT. • The NFP release is crucial for shaping expectations on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. •  Weaker labor data may increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, supporting oil prices. • US-China trade tensions show signs of easing after a positive call between Trump and Xi. •  Beijing confirms diplomatic engagement, reflecting efforts to stabilize relations. • Improving US-China ties favor global oil demand, offering fundamental support to WTI. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is flat as markets concentrate on two key worldwide news: the soon-to-be-released US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and indications of enhanced US-China ties. Investors pay particular attention to the NFP report since it will determine the direction that the Federal Reserve takes in subsequent interest rate decisions. A weakening labor market might encourage the Fed to explore more dovish monetary policy, which would normally favor commodity markets such as oil. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Diplomatic developments between the United States and China also support sentiment in the oil market. Recently, a phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, which has been characterized as positive by both parties, generated optimism regarding easing trade tensions. As China is the world’s biggest oil importer, any betteirment in bilateral relations with the US would be viewed as a good sign for the world’s energy demand and market stability. Such geopolitical optimism is contributing to sustaining prices of oil. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is consolidating around the $62.20 mark, showing a period of indecision while traders wait for a breakout catalyst. The price is trading near the important moving averages, indicating a short-term neutral bias. A break above the immediate resistance could set the stage for more advances, and a break below the near support levels could indicate renewed bear pressure. The momentum indicators are fairly flat, which supports the contention that a discerning directional trigger—such as the imminent US NFP data—is required for the next meaningful price move. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates weakening labor market conditions, it may raise market expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. This may have the effect of weakening the US Dollar, which would have the resultant effect of supporting crude oil prices indirectly. Moreover, if the improving sentiment in US-China trade relations persists, then it may improve global economic sentiment and translate into higher expectations for oil demand, thus enabling WTI to potentially move upward past key resistance levels in the near term. Conversely, however, if the NFP report shocks with better-than-anticipated job growth, it can reinforce the argument for the Fed to keep or even tighten policy, pressuring oil prices. In addition, any unforeseen deterioration in US-China trade relations or fresh geopolitical tensions can deflate risk appetite and cut demand projections, raising the potential for a pullback in WTI crude below existing support levels.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Prices Edge Up as US-China Trade Deal Fuels Optimism, But Caution Reigns Amid Economic Uncertainty

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  • May 12, 2025
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WTI Crude Oil prices are close to a two-week high, just below the $61.00 level, as investors wait for more information on the recently signed US-China trade deal. Though optimism surrounding the agreement serves to offset worry about demand, and especially in relief of easing US recession concerns, the lack of specificity regarding reductions in tariffs maintains bullish momentum in check. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish attitude and OPEC+ output increase decisions maintain price advances in check, as the market weighs potential oversupply risk against hopes for tightened US supplies and the geopolitical nuances. Traders are now waiting for future US inflation reports and comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will keenly watch for additional details on the trade agreement, particularly on any possible tariff reductions, as this may give vital guidance to Crude Oil prices. •  Releaser of US inflation data this week, as well as the usual remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, might have a strong influence on the US Dollar and by extension Crude Oil prices. •  Persistent oversupply fears, especially with OPEC+ accelerating production hikes, might put any upward move in Crude Oil prices in its place. •  Ongoing geopolitical risks, combined with hopes of more constricted US oil supplies, can serve as counterforces to prop up Crude Oil prices in the context of wider market restraint. WTI Crude Oil prices are near a two-week high, and major factors are influencing the direction of the market. Traders are eagerly looking for more information on the US-China trade agreement, especially on tariff cuts, which can impact demand and price action. Furthermore, later today’s US inflation figures and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are likely to influence the US Dollar, which will create further volatility in Crude Oil markets. Oversupply concerns, driven by OPEC+’s recent decision to boost production, remain to hold back price advances, while geopolitical tensions and US oil supply tightening are offering some support. The confluence of these factors implies that traders need to exercise caution, waiting for stronger signals before making any decisive directional wagers on Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil prices are close to a two-week peak, underpinned by optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, but caution is exercised as traders wait for more information on tariff cuts. Market forces are also driven by US inflation numbers, Fed speak, OPEC+ production decisions, and prevailing geopolitical concerns, which produce a careful but even trading atmosphere. •   US-China trade deal optimism alleviates global demand fears, providing support to Crude Oil prices, but the absence of tariff reduction details keeps traders on guard. •  Future US inflation data and possible remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may impact the US Dollar and, in turn, Crude Oil prices. •  OPEC+’s move to accelerate the increase in oil output may raise the risk of oversupply, capping sharp price increases in the oil market. •   Ongoing geopolitical concerns continue to underpin Crude Oil prices, with concerns over global stability still a dominant force in the market. •   Assumptions of reduced US oil supplies offer some short-term support for WTI Crude Oil prices, even in the face of wider economic fears. •  WTI Crude Oil is encountering resistance at $61.00, with significant support levels at $55.00, which will dictate the next direction in prices. •   Traders are being cautious, waiting for clearer signals from economic data and geopolitical events before placing large directional wagers on oil prices. WTI Crude Oil prices are going through a phase of cautious optimism as traders watch closely the events surrounding the US-China trade deal. Recent reports of a two-country agreement also alleviated anxiety over global demand, boosting the oil market. Yet, in the absence of concrete details concerning tariff cuts, many traders avoided going all in on a positive outlook, in turn keeping emotions in check. Even with optimistic news, nervousness persists while the market still waits for terms of the arrangement to be detailed. WTI Crude Oil DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from the trade tensions, more general economic considerations are shaping the oil market. The back-and-forth about US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach are essential in driving the direction of oil prices. Global production levels and geopolitical threats, however, are still influencing the supply and demand dynamic. While traders keep an eye on these events, the oil market is also likely to see a period of cautious watching, with important economic information and political developments poised to give the next big hints. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil prices are now consolidating around a two-week high, with resistance slightly below the $61.00 level. The recent surge upwards has ignited cautious hopes, but the fact that it lacks strong momentum indicates that the traders are not keen to drive prices further upwards without greater clarity regarding the major economic and geopolitical variables. The price dynamics in this zone point towards a potential consolidation phase, during which oil can trade in a tighter zone before breaking higher or retracting. Support levels are closely monitored at the $55.00 price level, and any notable break outside of these levels could point to a stronger trend in one direction or the other. FORECAST As the details of the US-China trade deal move in favor of more favorable terms, especially tariffs, this can create expectations for higher demand that would drive up WTI Crude Oil prices. Furthermore, a positive response to US inflation data or any comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that are dovish would add further fuel to the bullish argument. Under this scenario, oil prices would cross the $61.00 resistance level and set a target price of $63.00 or more based on optimism for world growth and diminishing US oil supplies. Conversely, in case the trade agreement continues to lack clarity, or if economic indicators show sagging demand, WTI Crude Oil may have a hard time continuing its recent uptrend. A stronger Dollar, buoyed by aggressive Fed policies

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