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GBP/USD Breaks Above 1.3550 As Fed Cut Speculation Increases and BoE Rate Expectations Change

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  • September 9, 2025
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GBP/USD rose higher than 1.3550 in early European morning on Tuesday, hitting a high since mid-August, as softer US jobs data sustained hopes of more Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders are looking forward to the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision, which may unveil massive downward revisions in employment data and place additional pressure on the US Dollar. While this, the Pound Sterling gained strength after HSBC and Deutsche Bank adjusted their expectations, delaying Bank of England rate cuts, which indicated UK rates could stay higher for the foreseeable future. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets look for confirmation of potential revisions downwards of as much as 800,000 jobs, possibly redrawing Fed policy expectations. • Traders are pricing in an 89.4% probability of a 25 bps reduction and a 10.6% likelihood of a jumbo 50 bps reduction at the September meeting. • HSBC and Deutsche Bank extend their rate cut expectations, indicating UK rates might remain higher for longer. • The pair trades around 1.3560, its highest since Aug 15, with further upside relying on US labor market data and central bank cues. GBP/USD continued its rise above 1.3550 during early European trading on Tuesday, buoyed by a weakening US Dollar as markets expect more profound Federal Reserve rate reductions in the aftermath of weak US labor market reports. Investors now wait for the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision, which may show a steep downward revision of jobs and further dampen the USD. In contrast, Sterling’s strength is supported by expectations of a delayed rate cut by the Bank of England, with HSBC and Deutsche Bank taking their forecasts further out in line with this, indicating UK monetary policy may stay tighter for longer. GBP/USD is trading around 1.3560, its strongest level since mid-August, as US Dollar bears are weighed down by Fed rate cut bets. US NFP Benchmark Revision is due out later, while delayed BoE rate cut hopes are supporting Sterling. • GBP/USD rises above 1.3550, its highest since August 15. • Disappointing US labor data puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to provide rate cuts. • There is a 89.4% probability of a 25 bps cut and a 10.6% probability of a 50 bps cut in September. • Tuesday’s US NFP Benchmark Revision could reveal a reduction of as much as 800,000 jobs. • Increasing US unemployment points to weakening labor market conditions. • HSBC now forecasts the Bank of England to keep rates on hold until April 2026, reversing previous cut projections. • Deutsche Bank extends its call for the next BoE rate cut to December from November. The GBP/USD currency pair is in focus as it trades close to multi-week highs supported by differing monetary policy expectations at the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Weaker US labor market indicators have spurred rumors that the Fed will have to be more forceful in loosening monetary policy, with eyes on the forthcoming Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision that might show large job losses. Such a revision would add to fears that the US economy is decelerating more than initially anticipated, placing greater emphasis on demands for deeper rate cuts. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView On the UK side, the interest rate outlook has changed after significant banks updated their estimates. HSBC now predicts the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged through 2026, away from previous estimates of quarterly reductions, while Deutsche Bank has delayed its next rate cut prediction to December. These delays are an indication of optimism that the BoE will keep inflation control as a priority for longer, as against expected Fed easing on the quick side. This policy divergence is tightening demand for the Sterling and influencing investor sentiment on the GBP/USD pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is holding up around the 1.3550 support level, reflecting strong bullish momentum after it recovered levels not seen since mid-August. A persistent break above 1.3560 would set the stage for a further move to challenge the 1.3600 psychological level, and any retreat will find initial support around 1.3520. The overall setup indicates that buyers are in the driving seat as long as the pair hovers above its short-term support levels, with the next directional move likely to be driven by coming US labor releases. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision reaffirms large-scale job losses and markets become increasingly bullish about aggressive Fed rate cuts, GBP/USD may be able to push higher above 1.3560. A definitive break above this area could set the stage for 1.3600 and beyond, as the Pound remains supported by hopes that the Bank of England will postpone monetary easing. Buyer sentiment towards Sterling may keep the currency pair on a bullish path in the short term. Conversely, if the revision in labor markets proves to be less harsh than thought or if Fed officials resist hugely bet-on rate cuts, the US Dollar may regain its footing, restraining GBP/USD’s appreciation. In that scenario, the pair could experience pressure towards the 1.3520–1.3500 support area. Any meaningful break below these levels would restore market risk sentiment against the Dollar and set up the possibility of larger corrective falls.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Remains Flat at 1.3440 with Markets Focusing on US Tariff Action and BoE Rate Projections

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  • July 21, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) trades within a narrow range of 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets are cautious in anticipation of new US tariff actions and important UK economic figures. Market participants have reduced hopes for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in September after above-consensus UK inflation and labor market data. In contrast, the US Dollar continues to hold solid near recent highs as wagers on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September dissipate after June’s CPI numbers revealed inflationary pressures from import tariffs. GBP/USD is overall range-bound bearish since it is trading below crucial moving averages. KEY LOOKOUTS • Global trade sentiment and USD movements can be influenced by potential updates on US tariff announcements, particularly for the EU. • Expectations are lower in markets for a BoE rate cut in September with a firmer UK CPI and solid labor data; any change in tone would influence GBP. • Attention will center on the July S&P Global PMI and June Retail Sales, which might yield new indications on UK economic health and inform BoE policy. • Traders are reconsidering Fed policy expectations as the likelihood of a September rate reduction has fallen, tightening the US Dollar and affecting GBP/USD momentum. Pound Sterling is trading firm at 1.3440 against the US Dollar as market players wait for greater clarity on US tariff policy and major UK economic data. Latest data which depicted higher-than-anticipated inflation and a robust labor market in the UK have prompted major financial institutions to reduce expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in September. In the meantime, the US Dollar is resolute, buoyed by diminishing hopes for a September Fed rate cut following the June CPI report that showed fresh inflationary pressures associated with new import tariffs. Both currencies are affected by disparate monetary policy expectations as well as geopolitics, leaving the GBP/USD pair to stay locked in a tight range, mirroring investor risk aversion. The Pound Sterling hovers steadily at 1.3440 as markets look forward to US tariff news and major UK data. Robust UK inflation and employment numbers have cut BoE rate cut chances, while the US Dollar remains firm on dwindling Fed cut expectations. • GBP/USD hovers at 1.3440 as market sentiment is cautious in anticipation of new US tariff updates. •  UK inflation and labor data beat expectations, prompting analysts to dial back Bank of England rate cut forecasts for September. • Major banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs now anticipate fewer BoE cuts in 2024. • US Dollar remains supported, with DXY hovering near its four-week high due to stronger CPI data. •  Traders reduce Fed rate cut expectations, the probability of a September cut dropping to 58.5% from close to 70%. • GBP/USD technicals are still bearish, and they move below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. •  Look ahead to UK PMI and Retail Sales, which may affect near-term GBP direction. The Pound Sterling is stable as market attention turns to future news on global trade and central bank policies. With the US government setting new tariffs in preparation for the August 1 deadline, the global market mood is still cautious. Investors are closely watching how heightened trade tensions between the US and the European Union might affect international commerce and currency flows. At the same time, recent trade deals with Vietnam, the UK, and other countries have given relief, but fear is still high as Washington contemplates putting baseline tariffs of 15% to 20% on imports from the EU. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the UK side, economic resilience is transforming market expectations. More robust-than-anticipated inflation readings and a less dramatic labor market fall have compelled major financial institutions to update downward their interest rate reduction forecasts. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs analysts have reduced their expectations of a September BoE rate cut as they become increasingly optimistic regarding the UK economy’s future prospects. This week, investor focus will be on important domestic data releases, such as S&P Global PMI and Retail Sales, which are expected to provide further guidance on the direction of the UK economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair still shows a bearish inclination as it trades below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are currently placed around 1.3470 and 1.3510, respectively. The failure of the pair to close above these levels indicates continuing selling pressure. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is floating slightly above the 40 level, indicating weakening momentum; a fall below this level may set off fresh bearish action. Support is close to the May 12 low of 1.3140, and resistance is at the July 11 high of around 1.3585. FORECAST UK’s PMI or Retail Sales this week may boost confidence in the British economy and provide sterling with support. Moreover, if the US indicates easing trade tensions or if Fed officials become increasingly dovish due to global economic threats, the US Dollar can soften, giving a boost to GBP/USD to recover. A break above 1.3510 on a sustained basis can change sentiment and pave the way towards retesting July’s high at 1.3585. Pound Sterling may be subject to downward pressure if US tariff tensions intensify or if the next UK economic data falls short of market forecasts. A strong US Dollar, fueled by lower Federal Reserve rate cut chances, could also put pressure on GBP/USD. If bearish pressure gains strength, the pair may slide toward the important support level of 1.3140, particularly in the event of weakening global risk appetite or if the Bank of England indicates a more dovish policy than expected.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Under Pressure: Further Declines Possible Amid Weakening Upward Momentum

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  • June 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair is exhibiting symptoms of further weakness as recent price movements indicate a bearish bias. Following the breach below the critical 1.3500 support line and a dip to a low of 1.3458, the Pound is exposed to the US Dollar. Though oversold conditions may restrict near-term downside to a retest of 1.3460, UOB Group analysts warn that a clear breach below 1.3420 would set the stage for further losses. Resistance zones lie at 1.3525 and 1.3555, with the overall bearish bias intact unless GBP/USD rises above the formidable resistance at 1.3580. KEY LOOKOUTS • Support at 1.3460 is immediate, with a stronger level at 1.3420; a break through here could initiate further downside. • Resistance on the upside is capped by 1.3525 and 1.3555, with strong resistance at 1.3580. • Tentative pickup in downward momentum implies sustained bearish bias, notwithstanding present oversold levels. • Continuation of trading below 1.3500 confirms diminishing upward momentum, raising risk of further declines to 1.3420 and lower. GBP/USD currency pair continues to experience selling pressure as recent price action reflects a change towards a bearish trend. Following the breaking of key 1.3500 support level, the pair fell to 1.3458 before slightly rebounding. Although oversold conditions suggest limited near-term downside, analysts caution that a prolonged break below 1.3420 would bring about further decline. On the positive side, resistance points at 1.3525, 1.3555, and the more important barrier at 1.3580 could cap any resulting bounce, preserving the overall bearish bias for the moment. GBP/USD continues to be pressured after falling through the 1.3500 support point, hitting lows around 1.3458. Though oversold markets can inhibit near-term losses, a break below 1.3420 might prompt losses to extend. Most important resistance levels are still 1.3525 and 1.3580. • GBP/USD fell below the pivotal 1.3500 level, its low at 1.3458. • Pair’s current market sentiment is negative. • Levels to watch for support are 1.3460 and 1.3420. • Levels of resistance are located at 1.3525, 1.3555, and 1.3580. • Oversold markets might put a cap on immediate decline, but the bearish momentum continues. • Economic announcements, central bank policy, and world sentiment remain in charge of directing the market. • A drop below 1.3420 would prompt further declines, and a breakout above 1.3580 would reduce selling pressure. The recent activity on GBP/USD mirrors market sentiment shaped by economic releases, central bank actions, and world financial conditions. The Pound Sterling has been responding to changes in investors’ confidence, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations, particularly in terms of interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Market participants also continue to watch macroeconomic data like inflation, employment, and GDP growth that continue to influence the direction of both currencies. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market mood is also influenced by wider risk drivers such as global trade patterns, geopolitics, and appetite for risk assets on the part of investors. Shifts in these drivers can trigger shifts in currency flows, with traders rebalancing in response. As ever, forthcoming economic data releases and the words of central bankers will be keenly in the spotlight, providing additional insight into the likely direction of GBP/USD over the next several weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD’s decline from recent levels below 1.3500 indicates weakening bullish strength and the onset of a bearish bias. The pair touched 1.3458 briefly, suggesting that sellers are starting to take charge. Although oversold short-term conditions mean some rebound or consolidation might occur, the larger context indicates further downside threats if the pair breaks through the level of major support at 1.3420. Levels of resistance at 1.3525, 1.3555, and particularly 1.3580 are likely to mark any meaningful rally unless robust bullish catalysts are realized. FORECAST If GBP/USD succeeds in regaining the upward trend, a recovery to the resistance levels of 1.3525 and 1.3555 would be observed. A break above these levels may pave the way for another surge towards the stronger resistance at 1.3580. But any rally is set to remain capped until there is a dramatic shift in sentiment or positive economic news in favor of the Pound. On the flip side, the pair is susceptible as long as it holds below the major resistance levels. A short-term retest of the 1.3460 support and a clean break below 1.3420 may speed up selling pressure, potentially leading to a steeper fall. If bearish momentum gains further traction, the next major support would be found further down, which increases the risk of a prolonged downtrend.

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