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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Below $3,400 as Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Trade Nerves are Offset by Profit-Taking

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  • August 8, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) stayed under the $3,400 level on Friday, cutting intraday losses thanks to profit-taking and a small US Dollar rebound. An overall risk-on tone in international markets constrained safe-haven seeking, but trade tensions, sparked by US President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariff policies, and robust expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut softened the downside. Further support was provided by China’s ongoing gold buying for a ninth consecutive month, as weak US labor market indicators supported dovish Fed sentiment. Technical levels are overall bullish biased, albeit short-term gains are resisted, while investors wait for new signals from future FOMC speeches. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are pricing more than a 90% chance of a September rate cut, with at least two cuts by end-year, underpinning gold price. •  Trump’s new tariffs on Indian imports and scheduled levies on semiconductors and pharma keep safe-haven demand in the limelight. •  Upside capped at $3,422–$3,435, with robust support at $3,350 and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. •  Ongoing accumulation by China’s central bank for the ninth straight month provides a fundamental tailwind for bullion. Gold prices remained below the $3,400 level on Friday as profit-taking and a modest US Dollar recovery dented the metal, even as trade tensions and dovish Federal Reserve expectations provided support. Market sentiment favored the day on the back of Asian equity gains, damping safe-haven demand, but Trump’s new tariff moves and China’s nine months of consecutive buying of gold capped the downside. Weak US labor market data further supported expectations for a September rate cut, maintaining the overall outlook as cautiously bullish while technical resistance levels remain to cap near-term gains. Gold prices remained below $3,400 on Friday as profit-taking negated the positive impacts of trade tensions and expectations for Fed rate cuts. China’s ongoing gold purchases and soft US labor data supported, though robust technical resistance curbed further advances. •  Gold price (XAU/USD) still below $3,400 due to profit-taking and a modest recovery in the US Dollar. •  Risk-on mood from rallying Asian equities diminishes safe-haven demand. •  Trump’s new Indian import tariffs and forthcoming levies on other products maintain trade tensions. •  China’s central bank is buying gold for the ninth consecutive month in July. •  Soft US labor market data supports hopes of a September Fed rate cut. •  Technical resistance at $3,422–$3,435 and robust support at $3,350. •  General bullish tilt remains in place, but investors look for new direction from future FOMC orations. Gold prices remained firm below the $3,400 mark on Friday as markets weighed profit-taking against continued support from international economic and geopolitical realities. Risk-on sentiment in equities, especially in Asia, relaxed some safe-haven demand, while a slight US Dollar rebound placed mild pressure. But increased trade tensions—fueled by US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff action against Indian imports and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals—kept investors on guard. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continued its gold shopping binge for the ninth straight month in July, adding to demand for the metal from a strategic reserve viewpoint. XAUUSD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the macro level, soft US labor market data put more credibility to bets that the Federal Reserve will restart its rate-cutting cycle this September as markets are pricing in a high probability of several cuts by the end of the year. The US Jobless Claims report indicated an increase in unemployment applications, indicating a slowing jobs market and building the case for easier monetary policy. At the same time, political events surrounding the leadership of the Fed—like the President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran and possible successors to Chair Jerome Powell—provided an added layer of uncertainty for investors. These factors combined still dictate gold’s position as both a hedge against economic uncertainty and an overarching strategic asset for central banks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent climb through the $3,383–$3,385 zone of supply, combined with upbeat daily chart oscillators, is bearish for now, but short-term upside momentum is held back at around $3,422–$3,423 and the $3,434–$3,435 area. A convincing break above here may send the door ajar toward the $3,500 psychological level last visited in April. On the negative side, the $3,353–$3,350 region—coinciding with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—is still a critical support level, with a break below opening up $3,315 and $3,300 before revisiting the one-month low of $3,268. FORECAST If gold can hold on to its buying momentum beyond the $3,385 support area, the metal may revisit the $3,422–$3,423 resistance zone, with added strength leading towards $3,434–$3,435. A break above this area would most likely prompt bullish investors to head for the $3,500 psychological level, spurred possibly by ongoing Fed rate cut hopes, trade tensions, and central bank buying. Conversely, a breakdown below the $3,353–$3,350 support—underpinned by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart—may change sentiment in favour of sellers, highlighting $3,315 as the next bearish target. Subsequent weakness below this level may drive prices towards the $3,300 round number and eventually the one-month low at $3,268, if risk appetite firms up and the US Dollar mounts a stronger recovery.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidates at Key EMA Levels with Upside Potential in the Pipelines

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  • May 29, 2025
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Silver price (XAG/USD) is currently consolidating near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $33.00, exhibiting a neutral short-run momentum as it puts an end to a recent two-day sell-off. Technical tools such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above 50 point toward a potential change in momentum to the upside. Nearby support is at the nine-day EMA around $33.10 and the 50-day EMA at $32.69, while important resistance is at the rectangle top at about $33.60. A firm break above this resistance could see silver test higher levels, such as the seven-month high around $34.59. However, inability to support could see further downside test to $31.80 and recent lows around $31.65. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe silver to retain these significant support levels to continue short- and medium-term bullish momentum. • A break above this significant resistance has the potential to lead to a more robust bullish surge towards the seven-month high of $34.59. • The 14-day RSI rising above 50 indicates possible bullish bias—be on the lookout for confirmation of rising momentum. • A decline below support levels might pave the way for silver to return to the rectangle’s lower edge around $31.80 and then the six-week low of $31.65. Silver price stands at a crossroads, being close to the nine-day EMA around $33.10, which is short-term support in conjunction with the 50-day EMA around $32.69. The 14-day RSI breaking above the 50 level suggests increasing bullish power, but the price is still locked inside a rectangular consolidation range. Traders need to carefully observe a strong break above the $33.60 resistance, which may set the stage to challenge the seven-month high at around $34.59. On the other hand, a lack of maintaining current support levels may bring about fresh downside pressure, possibly sending silver again into the $31.80 to $31.65 area. Silver is stabilizing around the pivotal nine-day EMA level of $33.10, with the RSI indicating possible bullish momentum. Breaking above $33.60 may send the prices towards the seven-month high of $34.59, while selling down below support could test the levels of $31.80. •  Silver is also hovering around the nine-day EMA at about $33.10 and is a near-term support. • The 14-day RSI also crossed above 50 and indicates a potential change towards bullish momentum. • The secondary level of support to keep an eye on is the 50-day EMA around $32.69. • The rectangle’s top boundary at about $33.60 is where resistance is anticipated, an important breakout area. • Breaking above $33.60 would have silver challenging the seven-month high at $34.59. • If unable to hold support levels, silver may be pressured down to the lower end of the consolidation range at $31.80. • Additional downside risk would be out to the six-week low of $31.65 if bear pressure increases. Silver remains in the limelight as a worthy asset in the wake of continued global economic instability. Investors tend to seek refuge in silver as a safe haven and inflation hedge, fueling constant demand in industrial and investment markets. Its dual status as a precious metal and industrial commodity guarantees it an influential position within global markets. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Looking forward, silver’s prognosis is guardedly optimistic as market players consider economic rebound, inflation direction, and political developments. Although supply and demand fundamentals will remain crucial in shaping the metal’s direction, silver’s inherent worth and extensive application in multiple sectors indicate that it will be a central focus to monitor over the upcoming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver is now consolidating at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which signifies a short-term period of indecision in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently crossed over the middle zone of 50, signifying that bullish energy could possibly gain strength. Important support levels near the nine-day and 50-day EMAs will serve as valuable floors for price action, and resistance near the high end of the existing consolidation zone will be key in deciding what the next direction will be. Traders will be watching closely for a breakout or breakdown from this range to indicate more intense trends in the future. FORECAST If silver is able to breach the critical resistance level at $33.60, it would be a sign of re-emerging buying interest and the beginning of more powerful higher trend. This kind of breakout would propel prices higher, potentially to recent highs of $34.59. The positive momentum within technical gauges such as the RSI indicates potential further gains, provided global economic trends allow precious metals to be sought as safe-haven investments. Conversely, however, if silver is unable to maintain key support levels at the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, it could come under growing selling pressure. A fall below those supports would see a test of the bottom of the consolidation range at around $31.80, and potentially lower to the recent six-week low of $31.65. Deterioration in momentum indicators might strengthen this fall, signaling a change in market sentiment to one of caution or risk aversion.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Falls to $32 as Ceasefire Hopes and US Downgrade Weigh

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  • May 20, 2025
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Prices for silver have fallen to the $32 an ounce level amid increased hopes of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, damping safe-haven demand. This was in spite of the fact that the metal’s losses were partly supported by Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which indicates fears about the rise in debt and fiscal issues. Also, softer US inflation data and poor retail sales lifted expectations for rate reductions by the Federal Reserve this year, introducing additional complexity to silver’s short-term outlook as investors balance geopolitical events against economic indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe how developments or reversals in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations impact silver’s safe-haven demand and price action. • Watch for continued US credit rating developments and additional downgrades that may influence investor sentiment and precious metals. • Watch for upcoming Fed speeches and data releases that may reinforce or change market expectations for 2025 interest rate reductions. • Follow inflation reports, retail sales, and other economic releases that may add credibility or undermine silver’s attractiveness as a hedge against economic instability. Investors should closely monitor several factors that could shape silver’s price trajectory in the coming weeks. Progress in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations remains a critical driver, as any breakthrough could reduce safe-haven demand and weigh on prices. Meanwhile, further developments regarding the US sovereign credit rating, especially potential additional downgrades, may impact market confidence and support precious metals. Federal Reserve policy cues will also be instrumental, with future speeches and economic reports releases affecting rate cut expectations during 2025. US inflation and retail sales data will still remain important in dictating silver’s attractiveness in the face of general economic uncertainty. Important points to observe are developments in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, which will alleviate safe-haven demand for silver. Further, news regarding the US credit rating and Federal Reserve policy directions will drive investor attitude and direction. Economic releases on inflation and retail sales will also affect silver’s future. • Prices of silver are declining towards $32 due to hopes over possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. •  Geopolitical tensions subside, weakening safe-haven demand for silver. •  Moody’s recent reduction of the US sovereign credit rating is only partially mitigating silver’s decline. • Weaker US inflation data supports Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 expectations. •  Disappointing US retail sales dampen economic growth expectations, potentially supporting silver. • Markets are expecting two Fed rate cuts this year, which are likely to start in September. • Future Fed speeches and economic releases will be pivotal for silver’s short-term direction. Silver prices have eased recently in the face of increasing expectations of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. This is alleviating geopolitics tensions, which have historically fueled demand for safe-haven metals such as silver. Meanwhile, there are still worries over the US economy, with recent statistics pointing to slowing growth and easing inflation, which causes investors to closely monitor economic policy shifts. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Additionally, driving the market is Moody’s downgrading of the US credit rating, which indicates long-term fiscal problems. Although this action has brought some hesitation, investors are also eyeing coming indicators from the Federal Reserve and overall economic patterns. Collectively, these factors form a complicated backdrop to silver, as global events and economic conditions continue to influence its allure. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) has been trending below major support levels at $32.50, indicating bearish pressures in the short term. The price of the metal is heading towards the $32.00 psychological support, which traders will be keeping an eye on for possible buying interest or a breakdown. Moving averages are treading downwards, and momentum indicators are indicating diminishing buying pressures. But any undoing of geopolitical tensions or change in economic statistics can precipitate technical rebounds, and thus the $32 level becomes a key pivot point in the near future. FORECAST Prices for silver could rebound in case geopolitical tensions erupt again, especially if ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine falter or break down. Fresh uncertainty tends to lift demand for safe-haven assets such as silver. Also, if future US economic data are disappointing or inflation proves sticky, investors would look to silver as a haven against economic uncertainty. Any signal from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts are going to be postponed or less aggressive than anticipated would also favor silver prices. Downside-wise, movements towards a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine could continue to mitigate safe-haven demand, further pressuring silver prices. Enhanced global economic conditions or better-than-anticipated US data may diminish the metal’s popularity as a non-yielding asset. Additionally, stabilization or enhancement of the US credit rating may revive investor trust in conventional markets and put pressure on precious metals. Finally, a more rapid pace of Federal Reserve rate increases or postponed cuts will most likely make silver less desirable, resulting in continued falls.

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