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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies as RBA Cautious and US PCE Inflation Data on the Horizon

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  • September 26, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) remained unchanged versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday following two consecutive days of declines, as markets waited for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. AUD was pressured by stronger-than-anticipated US economic data release and risk aversion due to President Trump’s announcement of possible 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports. Slowing growth in Australia was seen in weaker initial S&P Global PMIs, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated cautious optimism, mentioning slightly eased labor market conditions and emphasizing preparedness to adapt to shifting economic conditions. Technically, AUD/USD is quietly trading below the important moving averages, with support around 0.6483 and resistance at 0.6550. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants are keeping a close eye on the Personal Consumption Expenditures, as it may affect Fed policy and USD strength. • Any Reserve Bank of Australia comment regarding rate shifts or economic outlook may affect AUD sentiment. • Jobless claims, PMI numbers, and GDP growth will keep influencing USD strength and intraday AUD/USD movements. • Threatened 100% tariffs on US pharmaceutical imports and worldwide risk appetite may impact AUD demand. The Australian Dollar continues to be pressured by the US Dollar as the market balances a combination of global and local considerations. Even as the AUD recovered from recent losses, risk aversion due to President Trump’s plans for 100% tariffs on drug imports and weakening Australian economic data, such as lower S&P Global PMIs, dragged sentiment down. The market then waits for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Fed, which may drive US monetary policy and the direction of the Dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been cautious, citing marginally eased labor market conditions and highlighting preparedness to react to shifting economic patterns. Australian Dollar steadies versus the US Dollar following RBA caution and softening domestic growth. Marketers are looking for the US PCE Price Index, as geopolitical tensions and risk aversion continue to drive AUD sentiment. • AUD/USD steadies from two days of decline, trading at about 0.6530. • US economic indicators, such as GDP and unemployment claims, favored the US Dollar. • Market participants expect the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s inflation metric of choice. • President Trump’s proposal to impose 100% tariffs on imported medicines stimulated risk aversion. • Australia’s initial S&P Global PMIs show slowing manufacturing and services growth. • RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized loosened labor market conditions and preparedness to react to economic shifts. • Technical levels: support at 0.6483 and 0.6414; resistance at 0.6550 and 0.6581. The Australian Dollar has remained resilient against the US Dollar in the face of headwinds presented by global and domestic events. Risk aversion picked up after US President Trump revealed plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, fueling concerns over trade tensions. Meanwhile, decelerating economic growth in Australia, captured in downbeat preliminary S&P Global PMIs in manufacturing and services, has lent credence to risk-aversion sentiment among investors and traders. AUD/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView Market players are particularly focused on future US economic information, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has taken a cautious approach, noting marginally softened labor market conditions and reinforcing preparedness to address shifting economic conditions. Generally, the AUD is charting a highly uncertain environment constructed from both internal economic indicators and global events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is below significant short-term indicators, indicating a defensive market leaning. The pair is still below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating declining short-term momentum, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 shows bearish pressure continues. A support level is visible at the monthly low of 0.6483, with a lower floor near 0.6414, while resistance levels are indicated by the 50-day EMA at 0.6550 and nine-day EMA at 0.6581. A breakout above these resistance levels could indicate a possible recovery, while a break below support would continue the downtrend. FORECAST AUD/USD might experience further selling pressure as long as risk aversion prevails and US economic news continues to favor the further strengthening of the US Dollar. A fall below the initial support of 0.6483 would propel the pair towards the three-month low of 0.6414, marking a possible extension of the bearish trend. On the other hand, in case of weaker-than-expected future US PCE inflation readings or hints of a dovish Fed policy, the Aussie can rally again. In that case, a break above the 50-day EMA level of 0.6550 and the nine-day EMA level of 0.6581 can set the way for higher levels, with the 11-month high of 0.6707 emerging as a potential medium-term target.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falls as US Dollar Gains Before Central ISM Manufacturing PMI

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  • September 2, 2025
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Australian Dollar dropped against the US Dollar on Tuesday, ending its recent winning streak as the Greenback drew comfort before the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. In spite of more robust Australian July inflation, which cut the prospect of imminent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts, the AUD was pressured by renewed US Dollar demand amid ongoing US inflationary pressures. Market observers now look to important US labor market releases, in conjunction with the Fed’s September policy meeting, where expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut remain over 89%, determining near-term AUD/USD direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • More than 89% chance of 25-bps Fed rate cut in September is being priced in by markets, leaving US Dollar action extremely sensitive to data. • Superior July CPI has dampened near-term prospects for RBA rate cut, providing some medium-term support to the Aussie. • Looming ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment, Nonfarm Payrolls, and wage growth releases will be pivotal in influencing Fed policy direction. • Blended Chinese PMI readings may impact AUD performance, considering Australia’s high trade exposure to China. Australian Dollar declined against the US Dollar with markets becoming apprehensive before the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, with traders eagerly waiting for the influx of US labor market data in order to consider the Federal Reserve’s next step. Although July’s higher inflation tempered near-term Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut hopes, the Aussie struggled to sustain gains as renewed US Dollar support was driven by ongoing United States inflationary pressures. In the meantime, market sentiment continues to center on the Fed’s September policy meeting, where the prospect of a 25-basis-point rate cut has risen over 89%, with AUD/USD continuing to trade within a tight but volatile range. Australian Dollar eased against the US Dollar as traders awaited the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and key labor market data. Stronger Australian inflation supported the AUD, but renewed US Dollar strength and Fed policy uncertainty kept the pair under pressure. • The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) after a five-day winning streak. • US Dollar recovered strength prior to ISM Manufacturing PMI release, driven by inflation fears. • Markets now price more than 89% chance of September Fed 25-basis-point rate cut. • Australia’s July CPI increased 2.8% YoY, exceeding expectations and reducing near-term RBA rate cut chances. • Australia’s Building Permits declined 8.2% during July, and Private Sector Credit increased 0.7%, displaying mixed economic indicators. • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August, but the official PMI remained below 50, underlining continued pressure. • Technical perspective indicates AUD/USD trading around 0.6550, resistance at 0.6568 and support around 0.6520–0.6500. The Australian Dollar dropped as the US Dollar consolidated ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, with market players also looking to future labour market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and wage growth rates. Higher July inflation in Australia of 2.8% year-on-year has reduced the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the rate in the short term, providing the Aussie with some fundamental support. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment is still dominated by US Federal Reserve expectations, where investors increasingly view more than an over 89% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Domestically, the economic signals in Australia were mixed, with building permits falling drastically but private sector credit posting its strongest growth since April. China’s economic data revealed marginal improvement in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI but continued weakness in the official Manufacturing PMI, which signified that headwinds continue to prevail. The fact that China is Australia’s biggest trading partner means that what happens in China continues to be vital for the outlook of the AUD. Meanwhile, political and policy risks in the US, such as discussions over Fed autonomy, remain to influence international market sentiment and direct the AUD/USD pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6550, holding strong above the rising trendline and the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), both of which underpin a short-term bullish bias. The duo is confronted with instant resistance at 0.6568, its five-week high of mid-August, with more room on the upside to the nine-month high of 0.6625. On the downside, robust support would be seen around 0.6520–0.6500, coinciding with the nine-day and 50-day EMAs; a fall below this area could change the trend towards the three-month low of 0.6414, pointing to a bearish trend. FORECAST If the AUD/USD pair holds above the 0.6520–0.6500 support range, increasing bullish momentum could see the pair advance higher towards the immediate resistance level of 0.6568. A break above this level would then set the stage for a test of the nine-month high of 0.6625, particularly if US economic data falls short and reinforces bets on a September Fed rate cut. Further support from China’s economy would also add to the Australian Dollar’s upside. Conversely, if the pair cannot hold above its pivotal support levels, bear risks may return, pulling AUD/USD down to 0.6500 and lower to 0.6414, its three-month low. Fresh US Dollar strength, driven by more robust economic reports or a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance, could put downward pressure on the Aussie further. Poorer-than-expected Chinese economic activity could also weigh on Australia’s trade picture, boosting downward pressure on the currency.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Slumps Close to 0.6300 in Face of Growing Risk Aversion and US Tariff Fears

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  • March 21, 2025
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The AUD/USD has fallen towards the 0.6300 level as risk aversion increases following increased concerns regarding US tariff policy, increasing the demand for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. The Australian Dollar is still on the back foot due to soft domestic jobs data, which is making traders revalue the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy perspective. As US bond yields fall as investors flock to Treasuries for safety, Fed Chair Jerome Powell conceded the difficulty in assessing the wider inflationary effects of tariffs even as he minimized their near-term impact. Cautious market sentiment prevails as economic uncertainties and changing central bank expectations remain at the helm of currency fluctuations. KEY LOOKOUTS • Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar could continue to weigh on AUD/USD amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. • Market players closely monitor RBA’s policy, with lower jobs data fuelling speculation over possible rate reductions in the months ahead. • Future US releases of data, particularly inflation and employment, will be pivotal to influencing Fed policy expectations and USD direction. • Any intensification of US tariff news or overall risk sentiment would further fuel volatility and influence AUD/USD direction. The AUD/USD is still closely watched as several factors have been guiding its path. Increasing US Dollar demand amid surging risks aversion and US tariff policy concerns continues to press the key Australia Dollar. Meanwhile, weak Australian labor market statistics have prompted traders to re-evaluate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy tone, raising speculation of future rate cuts. Market players are also eyeing future US economic data, which might further affect Federal Reserve expectations and currency fluctuations. Changes in global sentiment or intensification of tensions relating to trade might contribute to volatility in the pair. AUD/USD remains around 0.6300 due to safe-haven demand pushing the US Dollar higher in light of increasing US tariff tensions. Downbeat Australian jobs data adds to the pressure, stoking speculation regarding future RBA rate cuts. Markets now look for major US economic indicators for guidance. • AUD/USD is trading around 0.6300, pressured by increasing risk aversion and increased US Dollar demand. • Safe-haven flows support USD, fueled by US tariff policy concerns and worldwide economic uncertainty. • US bond yields fall as investors turn to Treasuries for safety amid market and geopolitical uncertainty. • Fed Chair Powell minimizes inflation effect of tariffs, but admits difficulty in measuring broader economic impacts. • US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K, narrowly missing forecasts and contributing to risk-averse market sentiment. • Australian Dollar weakens after disappointing jobs data raise the alarm over the health of the labor market. • RBA policy outlook questioned, with markets speculating over future rate cuts despite the central bank’s conservatism. The Australian Dollar is facing pressure as global market sentiment shifts towards caution with increasing worries over US trade policies. Investors are now betting on the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency as anxiety rises about future economic shocks resulting from new tariffs from the US. This greater risk-aversion is fuelling currency market direction, and market participants watch closely for events in geopolitics and policy communications by large economies. Financial markets are more in defensive mood today, propelling demand towards defensive assets and impacting currency prices internationally. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To this conservative mood comes the additional news of weaker-than-forecast employment figures from Australia. The unemployment rate having held steady, the fall in overall employment created renewed doubts about the vigor of the nation’s labor market. Consequently, market players are reviewing again the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path and more speculation about additional scope for cutting interest rates. Yet, the central bank has been cautious in tone, hinting at a cautious and data-driven policy in the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is still under sustained bearish pressure, trading around the important psychological support level of 0.6300. The pair still trades below important moving averages, showing a consistent downtrend. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicate a bearish bias, but not yet oversold, with scope for further decline. Any decisive break below 0.6300 could take the pair deeper into support levels, while any recovery attempt could be resisted around the 0.6350–0.6380 area. Traders are likely to observe these levels closely for possible breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST If sentiment in the market picks up and risk appetite comes back, AUD/USD may recover modestly. A recovery in global equities or a relief on US tariff concerns might dampen the safe-haven bid for the US Dollar, providing some relief to the Australian Dollar. Any surprise upside in Australian economic data or a more dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could also induce a short-term rebound. In this case, the duo might try to retest resistance levels of 0.6350 and possibly 0.6380 if bullish sentiment gathers pace. On the bearish side, ongoing risk aversion and lingering worries about global trade tensions might keep AUD/USD under selling pressure. A strong US Dollar, supported by safe-haven flows and robust US economic data, might push the pair below the pivotal 0.6300 level. If this support is convincingly violated, subsequent falls toward 0.6250 or even 0.6200 cannot be discounted. Further, any subsequent indications of weakness in the labor market of Australia or dovish rhetoric from the RBA would bolster the bearish outlook for the Australian Dollar in the near term.

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