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Commodities Gold

Gold Soars as Geopolitics and Fed Uncertainty Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

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  • May 5, 2025
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Gold prices rallied more than 1% on Monday, fueled by safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions rise and with investors expecting the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Geopolitical tensions, such as a Houthi missile strike close to Ben Gurion airport and rising hostilities in Gaza, and U.S. President Trump’s attack on the Fed, have led investors to take refuge in gold. Although the CME FedWatch tool shows a low likelihood of a rate cut this week, markets are anticipating a potentially more dovish attitude in the subsequent months. According to technical analysis, gold could continue moving upward, and the important resistance points are at $3,290 and $3,320, and the support points at $3,244 and $3,219. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, such as the Houthi missile attack on Ben Gurion airport and Israel’s subsequent military retaliation, continue to increase market uncertainty, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. • The Federal Reserve’s May 7 meeting is a key event for market sentiment. Although no rate cuts are anticipated, any indication of dovishness or slowing of rate hikes could continue to support gold prices. • President Trump’s continuing criticism of the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell, along with the possibility of political pressure, may lead to the Fed’s policy direction in the future, affecting gold as a safe-haven asset. • Gold has breached significant resistance levels, with the next targets being $3,290 and $3,320. Nevertheless, robust support is established at $3,244 and $3,219, which may decide whether the uptrend momentum will be sustained. As geopolitical tensions increase, especially with the Houthi attack close to Ben Gurion airport and Israeli military build-up, investors are rushing towards gold as a safe-haven asset. With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision approaching on May 7, the market is anxiously awaiting any hints of dovishness, particularly as President Trump continues to put pressure on the Fed to reduce rates. Although short-term rate cuts are not expected, the potential for a dovish stance in the next few months could continue to fuel gold price gains. Technically, gold has penetrated key resistance levels and the next possible targets are $3,290 and $3,320, and support continues to be firm at $3,244 and $3,219, positioning for potential further upward movement. Gold prices have shot up as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations for the Federal Reserve rate decision on May 7. As tensions in the Middle East continue to increase and Trump keeps criticizing the Fed, gold is a robust safe-haven asset, bolstered by technical support levels above $3,244. • Increasing tensions, such as the Houthi strike on Ben Gurion airport and Israel’s subsequent military response, are increasing market uncertainty and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. • U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing frustration with the Federal Reserve and demands for rate cuts may affect market sentiment and Fed policy actions. • The Federal Reserve will make its rate decision on May 7, with markets looking for no rate cuts but keenly awaiting any signs of dovishness in reaction to recent economic news. • Gold has surged by over 1% as investors rush to it due to geopolitical uncertainty and a risk-averse economic outlook. • Gold has broken key resistance levels at $3,265, with possible upside targets at $3,290 and $3,320. • Firm technical support for gold is at $3,244 and $3,219, which may act as a floor for prices if there is any pullback. • Even with recent softening in U.S. economic data, gold continues to be an attractive hedge, especially if the economy is threatened by stagnation or recession risks from extended high rates. Gold prices have risen as investors look for safety in the face of increasing geopolitical tensions, such as the Houthi attack on Ben Gurion airport and rising tensions in the Middle East. These events, combined with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next action on interest rates, have prompted traders to consider gold a safe investment. President Trump’s consistent vitriol against the Fed, coupled with his rate cut calls, has introduced more volatility to market sentiment, and gold has become a greater option for investors who want to safeguard their investments against possible economic turmoil. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView With the rate decision by the Federal Reserve just around the corner on May 7, the markets are anxiously watching for any indication from the Fed of impending rate cuts or a dovish policy. While no short-term rate cuts are anticipated, the general economic environment, with softening in some areas, has fueled speculation that the Fed might refrain from tightening monetary policy further. This ambiguity, coupled with the persistent geopolitical tensions, still underpins gold’s safe-haven status, with investors taking bets on its capacity to withstand possible economic setbacks or extended episodes of market turbulence. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has just cleared major resistance points, pointing towards a possible continuation of the positive trend. The price crossed the $3,265 level, hinting at further potential on the upside with near-term levels of resistance at $3,290 and $3,320. On the negative side, support is firm at $3,244, with further support at $3,219. These technical levels are important in defining gold’s near-term price direction, as a break below these support levels could indicate a change in sentiment, while further strength above them can confirm the bullish view. The latest price action is being watched carefully to determine if the upward trend will be maintained in the days before the Fed’s rate announcement. FORECAST Gold will continue to gain, fueled by both geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility over the Federal Reserve’s policies. With global risks still on the rise, investors will continue to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset. If gold holds firm above the $3,265 resistance level, it may test the next crucial levels at $3,290 and $3,320. A sustained dovish stance by the Federal Reserve, especially if they indicate no near-term rate cuts or additional monetary tightening, would also continue to support the uptrend. As long as geopolitical tensions continue

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

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  • February 21, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Maintains Price Above 1.4300: Market Awaits Fed Powell Testimonies Despite Escalation of Tariffs

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  • February 11, 2025
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USD/CAD is currently trading above 1.4300, consolidating as investors await Fed Jerome Powell’s testifying for future interest rate policies. The Fed kept its key rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, with no cuts expected in 2025. In the meantime, the 25% tariffs of Trump on steel and aluminum create pressure on the Canadian economy, making the outlook for the CAD bearish. Market participants also keep an eye on US CPI data for further direction. Technical indicators remain sideways, while resistance is present at 1.4380 and the pair may rise as high as 1.4500. Support below 1.4270 could push prices lower. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors await Powell’s speech to know whether the Fed is going to extend its interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in 2025 or not. • 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum may weigh heavily on the Canadian economy, bringing a bearish trend for CAD/USD. • Tocky Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be out. This will impact market sentiment and further provide cues about inflationary trends affecting Fed policy. • The upside would be further possible only if the USD/CAD breaks above 1.4380. If it drops below 1.4270, a deeper correction can be witnessed. Wednesday’s Fed testimony by Chair Jerome Powell and the subsequent silent of interest rate policy keep the USD/CAD under the spotlight, with investors watching carefully for further clues. Since the Fed has held rates at 4.25%-4.50%, it is of immense interest to see if cuts are delayed until the end of 2025. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum at 25% are going to devastate Canada and will continue to reinforce a bearish view of the CAD. The US CPI data is going to be an important driver for expectations around inflation and monetary policy. Tactically, key resistance is seen at 1.4380. A clear break above here should send prices higher, while any move below 1.4270 should put support at risk and ideally could see a stronger fall. The USD/CAD pair still trades above the 1.4300 line as investors keep an eye out for Fed Chair Powell’s testimonial for key interest rate policies. The announcement of 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum is weighing against the Canadian Dollar, while positive US CPI later in the session will have enough influence on sentiment. Key level to watch up: 1.4380. Key level to watch downside: 1.4270 • The pair remains steady pending key economic events. • Traders look for signals on how long the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.50%. • The Canadian economy faces pressure as the U.S. imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum. • The inflation report on Wednesday could influence future Fed policy decisions. • Investors remain uncertain, leading to a tight trading range of 1.4270-1.4380. • A breakout above this level could push USD/CAD toward 1.4500. • A break below might push the price lower to 1.4195 and then to 1.4120. The USD/CAD is still trading flat above 1.4300, as traders are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to testify before Congress. Market participants are looking for clues on how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with many analysts expecting no rate cuts in 2025. Concerns over Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to weigh on the Canadian economy, as Canada is the largest exporter of aluminum to the United States. Such levies may mean higher inflation rates in the US, and by extension, that the Fed must continue its existing monetary policy much longer. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA USD/CAD is trading between 1.4270 and 1.4380; 1.4380 serves as a pivotal resistance point for the pair. A breakout above this could take the pair towards 1.4500, whereas a push below 1.4270 could lead to more losses toward 1.4195 and 1.4120. Another event that markets are eagerly awaiting is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled on Wednesday; this will have considerable ramifications in shifting market sentiment and increasing demand for USD. With various economic and political factors present, the outcome of the USD/CAD seems uncertain, but Powell’s testimonial and then the CPI to be released shall be the primary drivers for a future price shift. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS In the USD/CAD, consolidation is seen over a tight band of 1.4270-1.4380 due to the scheduled economic events; the 50-period Exponential Moving Average has been seen resisting the upside trend at around 1.4365. Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 40.00-60.00 area, showing a neutral to sideways trend. A break above 1.4380 would be likely to push the pair to the round-level resistance of 1.4500, and then to the January 30 high of 1.4600. A break below 1.4270 could be seen as a trigger for further losses down to the December 10 high of 1.4195 and then to the December 11 low of 1.4120. Traders will watch for the volumes to build and confirmation signs before making a directional bet. FORECAST Should USD/CAD break out of the resistance line at 1.4380, further gains could occur for the currency, and that’s towards round number resistance 1.4500. An increased breakout through the latter would lead the currency pair to move further to January 30 highs at 1.4600 with the boost in positive economic numbers from the US or more hawkish speeches by Fed Chairman Powell. Additionally, sustained inflationary concerns in the U.S., potentially fueled by Trump’s 25% tariffs, could lead to higher USD demand, reinforcing the pair’s upward trajectory. If the Fed delays rate cuts throughout 2025, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, keeping USD/CAD in an uptrend. On the downside, if USD/CAD goes below the February 5 low of 1.4270, it might reflect increased bearish pressure that could drag the pair toward the December 10 high of 1.4195. Further below this level, it would open the door for a possible dip toward the December 11 low of 1.4120. Any signs of a softer U.S. Release of CPI data or dovish comment from Powell will weaken USD; hence the

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Struggles Below 0.6300: Market Uncertainty and Technical Signals Shape the Outlook

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  • February 11, 2025
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The AUD/USD pair continues trading in a tight range below the 0.6300 mark, unable to gain upward momentum amid expectations for an RBA rate cut and escalating US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, bolstered by fears that potential Trump tariffs could be inflationary and keep the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, weighs on the Australian Dollar. The advance, however, faces technical issues, with the prices finding support above the 50-day SMA and oscillators turning positive. However, a decisive break above 0.6300 would confirm a bullish reversal, targeting 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. On the contrary, a break and failure to sustain support at 0.6235 might trigger further decline to 0.6140, 0.6085, and eventually to the psychological level of 0.6000, hence sustaining the downtrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will then gain a lot of buying pressure above 0.6300 and drive up towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455, as the bullish breakout takes place. • The on-going prospects of an RBA rate cut next week still weigh down the Aussie even when technical levels were widely signaling a recovery. • Geopolitical uncertainty and increased trade war tensions between the U.S. and China are the primary headwinds for AUD, stopping it from moving higher. • A stronger US Dollar, coupled with potential Trump tariffs and inflation concerns, will keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, thus further capping upside in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD continues trading in a tight range below 0.6300 as a variety of factors continue to affect the movement. Expectations for a RBA rate cut, as well as US-China trade tensions, are weighing on the Australian Dollar, thus capping its upside potential. Meanwhile, a stronger USD, which is driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on inflation, is keeping the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance intact. From a technical perspective, a decisive break above 0.6300 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the pair towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. But if support at 0.6235 fails to hold, then the AUD/USD may be seen further lower towards 0.6140, 0.6085, and the psychological 0.6000 level, thus continuing the bearish trend. The AUD/USD pair is struggling below 0.6300, driven down by RBA rate cut bets, US-China trade tensions, and a stronger USD. A break above 0.6300 will reportedly indicate recovery to 0.6365 and 0.6400, while a failure to hold 0.6235 support will push it down to 0.6140 and 0.6000. • The pair remains stuck in a tight trading range and struggles to pick up pace due to its uncertain economic and geopolitical background. • It is expected to continue hammering and attracting down the Australian Dollar amid speculations of an upcoming RBA rate cut. • The Aussie is under stress as trade tensions continue to hot up between the US and China, not allowing it to break out into key resistance levels. • Better still, the USD has firmed further due to the expectation that potential Trump tariffs may boost inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. • Additional gains above 0.6300 are required to confirm upward momentum; if so, targets are at 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. •  Further weakness towards 0.6140 and then down to 0.6085 and then 0.6000 is possible if AUD/USD does not hold onto any strength above 0.6235. • The 50-day SMA and improving oscillators suggest a possible bullish reversal, but confirmation is needed above 0.6300. The AUD/USD pair remains trapped below the 0.6300 mark, struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors. RBA rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Australian Dollar, as investors anticipate a potential policy easing next week. Furthermore, rising US-China trade tensions remain a significant headwind and keep the Aussie under pressure. In addition, a stronger US Dollar, due to the belief that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could push inflation and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, limits further upside for AUD/USD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a very tight range, with resistance near 0.6300 as investors weigh the impact of RBA rate cut speculation and US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, adds further pressure on the Aussie, limiting any meaningful upside. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50-day SMA. This means it has a chance of breaking out on the upside if it clears 0.6300. The targets for this are at 0.6365 and 0.6400. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is an indication that momentum may be changing. The oscillators on the daily chart are showing positive traction. The pair might see a bullish breakout if it sustains above the 0.6300 resistance level. A successful breach of this key level might send the pair toward 0.6365, 0.6400, and the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Failure to break higher may invite renewed selling pressure, with 0.6235 acting as immediate support. A drop below this level will speed up the downtrend to 0.6140, 0.6085 and the psychological mark of 0.6000. Traders should be focusing on these important levels for the confirmation of a major price movement. FORECAST AUD/USD pair might break out positively if it succeeds in staying above the resistance point of 0.6300. A decisive break below this important level would confirm a bullish reversal, with possible targets at 0.6365 and 0.6400, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Technical indicators, including oscillators gaining positive momentum, suggest that buying pressure could increase if the pair remains above its 50-day SMA. Any positive risk-aversion environment or easing US-China trade tension would further increase the Aussie price and push the pair to much higher levels. AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.6300, it can attract fresh sellings, pulling the pair south. The short-term support now lies at 0.6235. Break below this, and the downtrend could proceed towards 0.6140 and 0.6085. A stronger US Dollar, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and potential Trump tariffs, may continue to cap the Aussie’s gains. Additionally, growing concerns over an RBA rate cut could

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Key Technical Levels and Market Sentiment Analysis

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  • February 11, 2025
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The NZD/USD pair is consolidating around the 0.5650 level, with immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI is still below the 50 level, which indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. A break below 0.5650 may push the pair toward the lower boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5550, with further support at 0.5516. Conversely, in the event that the pair breaks below 0.5654, it could be on its way to rallying and trying to reach its nine-week high at 0.5794 and psychological resistance at 0.5800. The technical structure calls for the fight between the bulls and the bears, with the next direction dependent on some key support and resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breach of this level could now heighten the pressure on the bears, and NZD/USD now drops toward 0.5550 then critical support at 0.5516. • The pair, above this level, could intensify short-term bullish momentum towards the 0.5794 high and psychological resistance at 0.5800. • The 14-day RSI remains below 50, meaning the buying momentum is weak, and the odds are in favor of a lower movement unless sentiment improves. • The pair is within a well-defined range. A breakout in either direction can determine the next significant trend for NZD/USD. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading through a critical area and finds immediate support near 0.5650 with resistance to the nine-day EMA at 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 will increase the bears’ pressure, send the pair to the 0.5550 region and down towards 0.5516, low since October 2022. On the upside, overcoming the hurdle at 0.5654 will boost the bulls for further moves till 0.5794 and then on to the psychological level of 0.5800. Signs. The 14-day RSI remains below 50, showing weak buying pressure, while the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern, which would be an indecisive market awaiting a breakout to determine which way the next major move is. The NZD/USD pair hovers around 0.5650, facing immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 could trigger a decline toward 0.5550, while a move above 0.5654 may strengthen bullish momentum toward 0.5794. The 14-day RSI below 50 suggests a bearish bias as the pair consolidates within a rectangular pattern. • A clear break below this level is likely to send NZD/USD to 0.5550 and potentially beyond that to the lowest level since October 2022, 0.5516. • On a break above this level, bullish short-term momentum is likely to gain strength, taking the cable toward 0.5794 and later to the psychological point of 0.5800. • Relative Strength Index is still below the 50 mark, confirming low selling pressure and thus high selling bias. • The pair breaks within a range, and a breakout in either direction could determine the next major trend for NZD/USD • If bullish momentum drives on, the next target is 0.5794, then 0.5800 and the top of the rectangle at 0.5810 • Aggressive move below the lower threshold of 0.5650 could lead to increased selling, strengthening bearish sentiment and increasing losses toward the lower support zones. • Both buyers and sellers are in limbo, with the price direction dependent on the breakout from this consolidation stage. The NZD/USD pair is at a crucial juncture, testing immediate support at 0.5650 while facing resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI has yet to cross above the 50 level, keeping the selling pressure bias with weak buying pressure. If it breaks below 0.5650, the pair might continue south toward 0.5550, then lock into a critical support area at 0.5516, which also happens to be its nadir since October 2022. Alternatively, a successful breakout above 0.5654 could propel the market into the hands of buyers and unlock the way to 0.5794, then on to the psychological resistance at 0.5800. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The range-bound situation between the two remains within a rectangle, hinting that long-term direction for market participants remains ambiguous. An exit from the rectangle will probably be the onset of the new trend, upward would indicate more renewed strength while downward would point towards further downsides. Trades must keep watch at the main levels as it can break strongly in either side, which could signal the direction for the coming movement of NZD/USD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD maintains a rectangular kind of consolidation showing indecision. The immediate resistance is the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.5654; the support region is at the 0.5650 levels. The relative strength index over 14 periods is below the 50 points, indicating there is weak purchasing pressure and strong selling pressure. A drop below 0.5650 could add pace to a fall toward 0.5550 and 0.5516, but a move above 0.5654 may push the upside toward 0.5794 and the psychological resistance at 0.5800. Given the price action is being confined to a limited range, the breakout will be a decisive move in determining the next trend direction. FORECAST NZD/USD managed to break above the nine-day EMA at 0.5654 and could have enough bullish momentum to rally towards 0.5794, which is the nine-week high that NZD/USD recently made. A strong move above this level could send the pair towards the psychological resistance at 0.5800 and then to the upper boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5810. A bullish breakout of this consolidation pattern could spur a trend reversal that attracts higher buyers and strengthens the uptrend even more. However, for consistent upside drive, the pair would require healthy fundamental support, such as positive economic data from New Zealand or a weakening U.S. dollar. On the opposite side of the fence, if NZD/USD fails to hold above the base level support at 0.5650, then bearish pressure could potentially strengthen and push it towards 0.5550. A deeper drop from here would push the pair into further losses, with the next significant stop at 0.5516 – the lowest level since October 2022. A bearish breakdown of the current rectangular pattern can trigger a selling pressure increase if global

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Consolidates Amid Trade War Fears and BoJ Rate Hike Speculations

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  • February 11, 2025
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The USD/JPY currency pair remains in a consolidative phase around the 152.00 mark due to conflicting factors that are currently influencing market sentiment. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have reignited global trade war fears, thereby boosting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. On the flip side, expectations of a delay by the Federal Reserve in terms of rate cuts amidst inflationary pressures are buoying the US Dollar. On the other hand, increasing speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further are bolstering the Yen but are offset by concerns of instability in Japan’s economy due to Donald Trump’s policies. From a technical standpoint, the pair faces resistance at 152.50, with a downside bias suggesting potential declines toward the 151.00-150.90 zone if selling pressure intensifies. However, a breakout above 152.50 could pave the way for further gains toward 153.00 and beyond. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data for clearer direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will likely disrupt global trade, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of JPY and raising concerns about the stability of Japan’s economy. • As inflation remains above the 2% target, growing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may strengthen the Yen. • The Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts, which is largely dependent on Powell’s testimony and US inflation figures, will be crucial in determining the next move of USD/JPY. The USD/JPY pair is at a critical juncture as multiple factors shape its trajectory. Recent US tariffs under Donald Trump have only added fuel to concerns of a global trade war, making the Japanese Yen a safe haven currency while sowing uncertainty over the stability of Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, speculations about additional interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan continue to be positive for the Yen as inflation remains higher than the 2 percent target of the central bank. Meanwhile, any signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell or upcoming data that could either accelerate or restrain monetary policy should propel the course in the USD currency. It looks like resistance and support of key levels appear below at around 152.50. Thus a sustained pull from the inside bar zone may turn out towards significant further deterioration at 151.00 – 150.90. Of late, markets continue to keep themselves busy focusing keenly over future economic events of the economic states. USD/JPY still trades in the range, though, with fresh tariffs by Trump fueling fear of a full-blown trade war that strengthens the Yen. Uncertainty in Fed rate cut also helps support the USD. BoJ’s potential rate hike further impacts the sentiment. 152.50 resistance and 151.00-150.90 support form the pair’s next direction of movement. Further direction would now be sought on Powell’s testimony and US inflation data. • The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by President Trump increases global trade tensions, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • Inflation above the 2% target would further encourage the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates, supporting the JPY. • Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data, which will help decide the central bank’s next monetary policy move. • The US Dollar is buoyed by growing hopes that the Fed will postpone the rate cuts, as economic and labor market conditions are surprisingly robust. • USD/JPY has hit a significant resistance zone at 152.50 where the 100- and 200-day SMAs are located. • If the pair falls below this crucial support zone, it will create further selling momentum to the psychological 150.00 mark. • Traders remain vigilant in the days ahead as geopolitics, inflation figures, and the decisions of the central banks influence the USD/JPY direction. USD/JPY is still trading in a consolidation mode due to the uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the decisions of the central banks. Recent 25% tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on imports of steel and aluminum have resurfaced fears of a trade war, making the safe haven Japanese Yen an attractive bet for traders. However, the possibility of retaliatory measures and disruption in trade agreements against Japan’s economy has kept further JPY gains at bay. Meanwhile, expectations of more rate hikes by the BoJ continue to be supportive of the Yen, with policymakers indicating that the increase might reach 1% by the second half of the fiscal year. USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA It will be hard for the BoJ to avoid hiking the rate further, given that inflation in Japan is consistently above the central bank’s 2% target. On the other hand, the US Dollar remains strong as market players anticipate the Federal Reserve may delay lowering interest rates due to concerns of sustained inflation. Investors will be on the lookout for the congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US consumer inflation figures released shortly, which would shed light on the central bank’s intentions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is consolidating near the 152.00 level, facing strong resistance at 152.50, where the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) converge. A decisive break above this key level could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards the 153.00 psychological mark, with the next resistance around 153.75. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 151.30 level, followed by the 151.00-150.90 zone, which has acted as a strong base in recent sessions. A sustained move below this range could accelerate the bearish momentum, exposing the pair to further declines toward the 150.55 intermediate support and the crucial 150.00 psychological level. Besides that, oscillators on the daily chart are in negative territory but have not entered the oversold zone, and thus selling pressure might continue unless a strong bullish catalyst appears. FORECAST The USD/JPY currency pair might be on the path for a bullish breakout if it succeeds in sustaining its move above the

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Commodities Gold

Gold prices surged past $2,900: Trump’s tariffs and global uncertainty fuel safe-haven demand

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  • February 11, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its bullish momentum, breaching the $2,900 mark to hit a fresh all-time high amidst growing safe-haven demand. The surge is driven by US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on commodities, escalating global trade war concerns, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Other positives include the prospect of increasing inflation with the pro-protectionist policies of President Trump, thus making gold more attractive as an economic uncertainty hedge. A weak US Dollar bounce and an overbought market have resulted in some intraday profit-taking before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. Even though the precious metal experienced some minor pullbacks, the bigger picture is bullish, and strong support is at key technical levels above $2,800, which supports additional upside. KEY LOOKOUTS • Global uncertainty rises with threats of US retaliation and reciprocal tariffs on commodities • Increasing skirmishes, in the Middle East for one, only heighten fears in markets that drive even greater demand for gold as an inflation hedge against volatility • Fed rate policy and future course under inflation concern and a surprising strong labor market. • Despite minor pullbacks, gold’s strong support above $2,800 and bullish trends suggest further upside potential in the coming sessions. Gold’s bullish momentum remains intact as it continues to trade above the $2,900 mark, driven by escalating trade war fears following Trump’s new tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors are turning to the safe-haven metal amid uncertainties surrounding global economic policies and Middle East conflicts. A stronger US Dollar and profit-taking have caused slight pullbacks, but gold’s strong technical support near $2,800 suggests limited downside risks. The market now awaits Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate stance and influence gold’s next move. Gold price continues to hold strong above $2,900 on the back of Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which increase safe-haven demand. Even minor pullbacks are capped by strong support near $2,800. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony may shape gold’s next move. • Gold price surges to a record high as safe-haven demand increases. • New US tariffs on commodities raise the specter of a global trade war, making gold more attractive. • Uncertainties, especially in the Middle East, push investors towards gold as a hedge. • Expectations of inflation because of Trump’s protectionist stance might influence the rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. • A modest recovery in the USD results in some profit-taking in the prices of gold. • Gold is well-supported above $2,800 and is limited in downside risks despite minor corrections. • Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which may affect the future course of gold. Gold’s price keeps on its bullish trend, going past the $2,900 mark and reaching a new all-time high as investors seek safety amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on commodities, along with his plans for reciprocal duties on other countries, have fueled fears of a global trade war, significantly boosting demand for gold. Furthermore, increased political tensions, especially in the Middle East, have also contributed to gold’s safe-haven status. However, some intraday profit-taking occurred due to a minor US Dollar recovery. Yet, the bullish sentiment remains firm, with technical support levels around $2,800 capping the downside. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Looking ahead, market participants are watching the Federal Reserve’s policy stance very closely as Trump’s protectionist policies are likely to drive inflation higher, and this might have an impact on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. A hawkish stance from the central bank would strengthen the US Dollar and cap gold’s gains, while a dovish approach would further support the yellow metal’s rally. Investors are also waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, which may give a clue about the Fed’s view on inflation and interest rates. While short-term fluctuations are possible, the broader technical setup suggests that gold is still on an uptrend, and strong demand is likely to keep prices elevated in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a strong uptrend, comfortably above the $2,900 level, and with key support around the $2,800 level. Any pullback towards $2,886-$2,882 should attract fresh buying interest, which will reinforce the bullish outlook. A decisive break below this zone may push prices towards the $2,855-$2,852 region, but downside risks are limited because of strong demand. On the flip side, yesterday’s resistance came in near $2,943-$2,950; a next leg higher probably targets the $3,000 mark, but it is reflected in the daily chart – the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI). The next leg higher might mean some consolidation or short-term correction. Traders will look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the US Dollar’s movement for further directional cues. FORECAST The medium-term bullishness in gold will likely continue for the near term, with price action testing new higher resistance levels. If this buying pressure remains strong, then the next target to the upside would be in the $2,943-$2,950 area, with the psychological $3,000 barrier being a major obstacle before breaking above to start a new rally and take the long-term uptrend much further. Geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and safe-haven demand will continue to fuel gold prices. The positive view on the yellow metal will continue. But, the price may see some pullbacks because of profit-taking and the US Dollar’s strengthening. If the price falls below $2,900, the initial support is seen around $2,886-$2,882, and the downside risks will extend toward the $2,855-$2,852 zone. Another more aggressive push in correction would push prices closer to the $2,834 level, but that level is expected to attract buyers, thus limiting further declines. Market sentiment will be highly driven by the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell’s testimony as any hints of a prolonged rise in higher interest rates would force short-term downward pressure on gold.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats: Uncertainty Looms Over Global Trade

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  • February 10, 2025
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EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 after an initial dip, but market uncertainty remains as investors react to US President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. The Euro faces additional pressure from potential trade tensions with the US and concerns over the ECB’s ability to support inflation. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell can drive monetary policy expectations. On the technical side, EUR/USD seems to have difficulty around resistance at 1.0500. More importantly, a strong support line remains at 1.0177 that could make or break the pair’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rekindled fears of the trade war on steel and aluminum imports at 25% tariffs have impacted the global markets and the stability of the Euro. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence EUR/USD movements and market sentiment. • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony may provide crucial insights into the US central bank’s interest rate stance, affecting the USD’s strength. • EUR/USD faces strong resistance near 1.0500, while key support at 1.0177 remains critical for determining the pair’s next directional move. EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300, but uncertainty lingers as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fuel trade war fears. Investors remain cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, both of which could influence monetary policy expectations. The Euro faces additional pressure from trade tensions with the US and weak inflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 shaping its next directional move. EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 despite uncertainty from Trump’s tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. Investors await ECB Lagarde’s speech and Fed Powell’s testimony for monetary policy cues. The pair faces resistance at 1.0500, while key support lies at 1.0177. • The pair recovers above 1.0300 despite initial weakness driven by renewed US tariff fears. • Proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raise concerns over global trade tensions and impact market sentiment. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and economic outlook. • The Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony before Congress may provide crucial signals on future interest rate decisions. • The US Dollar Index wobbles around 108.20, maintaining strength on global trade war fears. •The Euro faces additional strain from potential reciprocal tariffs and weaker-than-expected inflation levels. • EUR/USD struggles near 1.0500 resistance, while key support at 1.0177 remains crucial for the pair’s next move. EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session following a weak open as renewed fears over US President Trump’s 25% proposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum reignite the specter of a global trade war and weigh on the market sentiment that increases demand for safe-haven assets. The investors are closely following ECB President Christine Lagarde speech at the European Parliament and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, which could affect the expectations over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays strong near 108.20 due to still uncertain global markets. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Trade tensions, softer inflation than expected in the Eurozone, and the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the ECB are weighing on EUR/USD. The Euro remains vulnerable as economic contraction risks persist, and analysts warn that the US tariff measures could further hurt the European economy. Technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 playing a crucial role in determining the next directional move. Traders will also look to US CPI data, which will be released later this week, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and the US Dollar’s strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around 1.0300, and resistance is located near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, while support is found at 1.0177. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40-60 range, showing a neutral trend with no clear directional momentum. A break above 1.0500 could trigger further gains, while a decline below 1.0177 may push the pair towards 1.0100. Market participants are watching upcoming economic events for clues on future movements, with the pair likely to stay range-bound unless a strong catalyst emerges. FORECAST EUR/USD has the potential to rise if it manages to break above the 50-day EMA at 1.0436, with the next resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500. A decisive push above this region would lead to further strides towards 1.0600, lifted by enhancing Eurozone economic performance data or more dovish US Federal Reserve statements. Another boost comes in case ECB President Christine Lagarde exudes confidence in the current stability of the Eurozone’s economy or gives hints of more tempered rate cuts that might make the Euro regain its strength. A weaker US Dollar, due to either lower-than-expected US inflation data or dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will add further fuel to the upside in EUR/USD. Downside risks include a failure for EUR/USD to hold above 1.0300, where it could face immediate support at 1.0177 (January 13 low) and further declines toward the critical 1.0100 level. A break below 1.0100 could see a test of parity (1.0000) as renewed global trade war fears, following Trump’s tariff threats or worsening Eurozone economic conditions, weigh on the pair. Deeper losses for EUR/USD could be seen if the ECB turns dovish and cuts rates aggressively in response to weak inflation or if the US Dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed comments. Further, geopolitical uncertainty or adverse economic surprise from the Eurozone might hasten the bearish thrust.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Soar to New All-Time Highs as Trade War Jitters, Inflation Loom

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  • February 10, 2025
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Prices of gold (XAU/USD) have maintained their bull run and even reached new all-time highs near the $2,896-$2,897 level as haven demand increases amidst heightened trade war jitters and inflationary pressure. US President Donald Trump declared new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, in addition to threatened retaliatory measures, which raised uncertainty and have prompted investors to rush to the safe haven. Meanwhile, upbeat US jobs data and persistent inflation worries are expected to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, providing further support to gold prices. Despite modest US Dollar strength and overbought technical conditions, the fundamental backdrop suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and key inflation data for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum escalate US-China tensions, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold amid economic uncertainty. • Rising inflation fears, fueled by protectionist policies, strengthen gold’s appeal as a hedge against price increases despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. • The Fed’s decision on interest rates remains key, as resilient labor market data and inflation trends could impact gold’s bullish momentum. • Gold faces resistance near $2,900, while overbought RSI signals possible consolidation; key support levels to watch are $2,855 and $2,834. Gold prices continue to rally amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Investors seek refuge in the safe-haven metal as economic uncertainty looms, while inflationary pressures further boost gold’s appeal. Despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, resilient US labor market data and persistent inflation could limit room for further rate cuts, supporting gold’s bullish outlook. However, technical indicators signal overbought conditions, suggesting potential consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level, with key support at $2,855 and $2,834 to watch for potential pullbacks. Gold prices surge to record highs amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. While the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance supports gold, overbought technical conditions hint at possible consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level. • XAU/USD reaches a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region amid strong safe-haven demand. • Trump’s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports escalate US-China tensions, boosting gold’s appeal. • Protectionist policies may reactivate inflation, reinforcing the reasons to hold gold as a hedge against rising prices. • Strong labor market and inflationary worries might prevent the Fed from reducing interest rates, further supporting gold’s bullish outlook. • A slight USD advance might cap the rally in gold, but the fundamental setup is supportive. • Gold is resisted around the $2,900 area, with overbought RSI conditions pointing to consolidation. • Immediate support lies at $2,855 and $2,834, with a further decline targeting the $2,815-$2,800 range. Gold prices continue their upward trajectory, reaching a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region as investors seek refuge in the safe-haven asset amid rising economic uncertainty. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has intensified fears of a trade war, prompting increased demand for gold. Additionally, concerns over inflationary pressures due to protectionist policies have further strengthened gold’s status as a hedge against rising prices. Meanwhile, the US labor market remains resilient, with a lower-than-expected unemployment rate, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy. Despite modest US Dollar strength, gold maintains its bullish momentum, signaling strong investor confidence in the metal. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a potential short-term consolidation or pullback. The key resistance level stands at $2,900, and a sustained break above this could push prices toward $2,920-$2,930. On the downside, initial support lies at $2,855-$2,854, with stronger buying interest expected around $2,834. If bearish pressure intensifies, the next critical support zone is near $2,815-$2,800. Moving averages indicate continued strength, reinforcing the long-term uptrend, while traders closely watch upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve signals for further price direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate the possibility of short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before further gains. The immediate resistance lies at the psychological $2,900 level, and a sustained breakout above this could push prices toward the $2,920-$2,930 range. On the downside, initial support is seen at $2,855-$2,854, with further key levels at $2,834 and $2,815. If gold breaks below these levels, a deeper retracement toward the $2,800 mark could follow. Moving averages continue to move up, specifically 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Traders would watch the short-term momentum indicators and price action for a breakout confirmation in either direction, given that short-term direction could shift based on upcoming US inflation numbers and signals coming from the Fed. FORECAST The current trend in the gold prices continues to remain uptrended; safe haven, as well as inflation, would continue to sustain the uptrend. The bullish momentum suggests that gold could break above the psychological $2,900 mark, with the next potential target around $2,920-$2,930. If trade tensions between the US and China escalate further or inflation fears intensify, gold may see additional upside, attracting more investors seeking a hedge against economic instability. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates will also play a crucial role in sustaining the bullish momentum. Should the Fed signal a more dovish approach due to persistent economic risks, gold could gain further, testing new record highs in the coming weeks. Despite gold’s strong rally, short-term pullbacks remain a possibility due to overbought technical conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is approaching an overextended zone, suggesting the potential for a temporary correction. If profit-taking sets in, initial support is expected near the $2,855-$2,854 region, followed by stronger support at $2,834. A deeper retracement could bring the price down to $2,815 or even the $2,800 psychological level, where fresh buying interest

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