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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls on Modest USD Strength, but Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Provide Support

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  • August 4, 2025
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Gold prices started the week lower, pulling back from recent highs as the US Dollar recovered some ground against a modest rise in Treasury yields. But the negative for the precious metal seems to be in short supply given rising market hopes for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, political tension over the Fed’s independence, and rising geopolitical tensions following the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia. All this continues to support gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, and the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish even with short-term ups and downs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing speculation of a rate cut continues to limit USD strength and underpins gold prices. • Deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia increases safe-haven demand in the face of increasing global uncertainty. • Deterioration in weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers and revisions signal a slowing economy, supporting gold. • Look for support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,370–$3,400 for possible breakout or pullback signals. Gold prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week as reduced Treasury yield pressures allowed the US Dollar to recover some ground. This slight fall aside, the forward-looking precious metal continues to be supported by increasing anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has moderated wider USD advances. Further, geopolitical uncertainties—specifically the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia—are also lending additional support to gold’s safe-haven status. Traders are now looking to future US economic data and risk sentiment for guidance on the next move for XAU/USD. Gold price inches lower on modest USD strength but is underpinned by expectations of Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical tensions. Market attention now turns to release of US economic data and overall risk appetite for further guidance. • Gold price retreated from more than one-week high at $3,369 on fresh USD buying. • Modest recovery in US Treasury yields underpinned the US Dollar, driving gold prices lower. • September Fed rate cut hopes remain to cap non-yielding gold’s downside. • Soft US jobs data, including below-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls, fueled rate cut expectations. • Political tension surrounding the independence of the Fed is suppressing aggressive USD rebound. • Geopolitical concerns escalated after the US sent nuclear submarines to the vicinity of Russia. • Technical support remains at $3,300, and a breach above $3,370 may lead to $3,400+. Gold still draws the interest of investors amidst a complicated combination of economic and geopolitical events. Although the metal started the week weaker, its long-term attraction is firm because market belief is increasingly building that the Federal Reserve is moving towards the start of a rate-cutting cycle, perhaps in September. The latest US jobs report, which recorded a significant slowdown in job recruitment and a rise in unemployment, has added to the perception that the US economy is slowing. This supports the case for softer interest rates, which have traditionally helped gold since it does not pay interest and tends to thrive in low-rate conditions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, political uncertainty is growing. The impromptu removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics by President Trump and the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor have spooked the market with fears over the independence of the Fed. The incidents raise the wariness of investors and improve the attraction of safe-haven instruments such as gold. Geopolitical tensions also continue to mount, with the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia in response to aggressive rhetoric, adding further to concerns of international instability. These considerations together create a solid fundamental underpin for gold over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the resistance level of $3,335 recently and also above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Oscillators are becoming positively more bullish, indicating ongoing dip-buying interest near support levels. Primary support now resides in the vicinity of $3,340–$3,338, with additional buying anticipated near $3,320 if that does come under test. On the positive side, a continued move through the new high of $3,369–$3,370 would seal the bullish trend and leave the way open toward the psychological $3,400 level, potentially retesting the all-time high around $3,500 if support persists. FORECAST If positive sentiment prevails, fueled by a hoped-for September Fed rate cut and increased geopolitical tensions, gold might reattack the $3,370 resistance level. A breach above this region may trigger a retest of the $3,400 psychological level. Continued buying and positive risk-off sentiment might even propel the metal to the $3,434–$3,435 obstacle, and ultimately, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 is still in play if uncertainty in the world continues. Conversely, if the US Dollar continues to appreciate further based on more robust-than-expected economic data or a more aggressive Fed stance, gold could experience selling pressure. Support begins around the $3,340–$3,338 area, which lines up with the 100-period SMA. A firm break below this zone could set further losses in motion towards $3,320, and sustained losses might take the price towards the make-or-break $3,300 level. A violation of this mark could turn momentum in the bears’ direction.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Prediction: XAG/USD Remains Close to $38 with US-EU Trade Deal and Fed Rate Hesitancy

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  • July 28, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) moves carefully in the vicinity of the $38.00 level with enhanced market mood from a settled US-EU trade deal diminishing safe-haven demand. The deal, which places 15% duties on Brussels imports, has increased investor risk appetite, evidenced by climbing S&P 500 futures. In the meantime, market players are looking for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision with expectations that interest rates will be held steady. With the Fed’s extended higher rate policy bearing down on non-yielding assets such as silver, pressure is put on the white metal, particularly as bullish momentum ebbs away, as can be seen in technical readings. KEY LOOKOUTS • The ratified trade deal, featuring 15% tariffs on EU imports, has increased market risk appetite, dampening demand for safe-haven assets such as silver. • Wednesday’s Fed meeting has everyone watching, anticipating steady rates. Any unexpected hawkish cues may continue to pressure silver. • Support is at the June 18 high of $37.32, with resistance near the June 23 high of $39.53. • The RSI declining below 60.00 and silver’s retreat from recent highs indicate fading bullish strength in the near term. Silver (XAG/USD) stays in wary bearishness around the $38.00 threshold as better risk appetite globally, fueled by the completed US-EU trade agreement, diminishes demand for conventional safe-haven assets. The deal, which calls for a 15% import tariff from Brussels, has boosted market confidence, seen in the surge of S&P 500 futures. Meanwhile, the market is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement, where interest rates are expected to be left unchanged. But the Fed’s policy of keeping higher rates for a longer period continues to burden non-yielding assets such as silver, again clouding the bullish picture. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading cautiously at around $38.00 as the US-EU trade agreement improves risk appetite and undermines safe-haven demand. Attention now turns to the Fed’s next policy decision, with stable rates likely to continue exerting pressure on silver prices. • Silver is trading around $38.00, coming under pressure on the downside as global risk appetite improves. • US-EU trade agreement finalized, with the US slapping 15% tariffs on EU imports, enhancing investor sentiment. •Demand for safe-haven assets shrinks as equity markets respond favorably to the trade agreement. •Fed likely to maintain rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% during the next policy meeting. •Increased interest rates pressurize silver, a non-yielding rate-sensitive asset. •Technical support at $37.32, with resistance around June 23 high of $39.53. • RSI below 60.00 indicates declining momentum, causing alarm for continuation to the upside. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a conservative tone at the $38.00 level, following the news of a US-EU trade deal. The agreement, which involves a 15% tariff on EU imports to the US, has reduced geopolitical tensions and put investor sentiment in a positive mood. Consequently, safe-haven assets such as silver have declined in demand, while equities and riskier assets have become more aggressive. General optimism over the trade agreement has moved attention from metals to growth-driven investments. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market focus now moves to the coming Federal Reserve policy announcement, where the central bank will hold onto the current interest rate bracket. With inflation easing and economic growth solid, the Fed has less need to make rates adjustments in the immediate future. Nonetheless, the extension of higher borrowing rates renders non-yielding assets such as silver unappealing to investors. Silver prices, in the short term, could continue to suffer from general economic optimism and normal monetary policy, unless new geopolitical threats or economic shock trigger safe-haven demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) has retreated back to the $38.00 handle after hitting recent peaks at around $39.53. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is set as a major support level, suggesting a potential cushion for additional downside. In the meantime, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the 60.00 mark, which shows declining bullish momentum and hints at a potential reversal to consolidation or slight correction. To the negative, the June 18 high of $37.32 can act as an immediate floor, and the June 23 high of $39.53 still stands as a key resistance hurdle to any new bullish efforts. FORECAST If investor sentiment returns to being cautious following unforeseen geopolitical events or softer economic reports, silver may return to its safe-haven status. A clear break above $38.50 might set the stage for retesting the recent high of approximately $39.53. Sustained buying interest above this resistance could push further gains towards the round psychological $40.00 level, provided the Federal Reserve indicates some dovish lean or deceleration in economic momentum. On the negative side, ongoing optimism about the US-EU free trade agreement and calm interest rate expectations of the Fed may continue to put pressure on silver. A fall below the near-term support of $38.00 could see additional declines to June 18’s high of $37.32. If this level also fails to hold, negative sentiment may accelerate, moving silver prices towards the $36.50 zone in the short run.

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