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Commodities Gold

Gold Spikes Over $3,350 as Trump Ramps Up EU Trade War and US Fiscal Risks Become Deeper

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  • May 24, 2025
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This week, gold prices spurted above $3,350, spurred by increased safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to ramp up trade war tensions with the European Union by threatening 50% tariffs on imports. Investor worries over fiscal stability in the U.S. added to the rally following the House’s passage of a $4 trillion debt-burdened budget. In spite of some relaxation of geopolitical tensions with developments on the Ukraine and Iran negotiations, risk aversion was still high, driving XAU/USD up by almost 5% on the week. A weakening US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and dovish Fed commentary also helped drive the bullish trend in gold markets. KEY LOOKOUTS • As the Fed’s go-to inflation indicator, the report will have a large bearing on interest rate expectations and gold prices. A less-than-expected print could make the case for cutting rates even stronger, boosting gold. • Market participants will scrutinize the wording and tone for hints on the policy direction of the central bank and the course of rates into the growing fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties. • Important economic data that will provide insight into the condition of the U.S. economy; poor data could push gold as a safe-haven asset. • If XAU/USD breaks above the $3,400 level of resistance, a test of the record high around $3,500 may come next, fueled by robust bullish momentum and a weak risk environment. Gold traders will in the coming days keep a keen eye on important U.S. economic indicators, such as the Core PCE Price Index, which might influence perceptions of future Federal Reserve policy action. The upcoming release of the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes might also indicate the central bank’s position amid increasing fiscal stability and inflation fears. Moreover, the Durable Goods Orders and the second GDP estimate will be under scrutiny as they provide additional insights into the U.S. economy’s strength. Technically, a clear break above the resistance of $3,400 can trigger a rally to the all-time high of $3,500, particularly with risk sentiment being weak. Gold dealers are looking ahead to future U.S. information, such as Core PCE inflation and revisions to GDP, for hints at Fed policy. A move above $3,400 has the potential to spark a push toward the all-time high of $3,500 while risk aversion continues and the dollar remains weak. •  Gold advanced above $3,350, up almost 5% for the week as geopolitical and economic uncertainty increased. • Trump ramped up trade tensions with threats of 50% tariffs on EU imports, fueling safe-haven demand. • U.S. House approved a $4 trillion debt-laden budget, fueling worries about fiscal stability and pushing gold higher. • The U.S. Dollar weakened, with DXY down more than 0.66%, serving as a tailwind for gold prices. • Treasury yields decreased, making gold a more attractive non-yielding asset. • Soft U.S. housing data and cautious comments from the Fed fueled investor jitters. • The major resistance is at $3,400, with a possible rise to $3,500 if positive momentum is sustained. Gold is attracting strong investor buying amid global uncertainties that are rising, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump aggressively escalated trade tensions with the European Union. His warning to place tariffs of 50% on EU imports revived fears of a wider trade conflict that is leading to a flight towards safe-haven assets such as gold. This action was combined with scathing criticism from U.S. authorities regarding the stalemate in negotiations with Europe, further weakening investor confidence. Furthermore, geopolitical events, such as continuous negotiations on Ukraine and Iran, have brought brief relief but have not considerably assuaged the risk-averse sentiment of markets. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, local fiscal worries within the United States are exerting additional pressure. The House of Representatives just voted to pass a $4 trillion budget that notably raises the national debt ceiling, and this is raising eyebrows among investors regarding long-term economic stability. Such concerns are added to by declining confidence in U.S. assets and overall caution by the Federal Reserve, as noted by major policymakers. Despite these coinciding factors, gold remains a safe-haven store of value in an otherwise volatile world. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in a very strong uptrend, with bullish momentum bolstered by a positive macro environment. Price has made steadily higher highs and higher lows, reflecting ongoing support from buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is increasing but remains below overbought territory, implying potential for additional upside. Pivotal resistance levels to observe are the psychological $3,400 level, followed by May 7 high of $3,438, and the all-time high of $3,500. On the downside, near-term support is at $3,300, with stronger support at $3,204 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,199. FORECAST Gold prices will continue to get supported in the near term because of ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions. If the U.S. Dollar weakens further and Federal Reserve sends a dovish signal in the face of weakening inflation data or weakening economic trends, then gold may continue its rally. A move above the $3,400 level could set the stage for the way to the May high of $3,438, with the possibility to challenge the all-time high of $3,500. Sustained safe-haven appetite, particularly in the wake of trade tensions and fiscal worries, may maintain bullish strength. To the downside, any indications of de-escalating tensions between the U.S. and EU or better-than-anticipated U.S. economic data may temper gold’s bull run. Should the Federal Reserve take on a more hawkish stance or when yields start climbing once more, gold may be pressured. A fall below the $3,300 support mark could prompt further falls toward the $3,204 region, then the 50-day SMA around $3,199. Increased demand for risk assets and a recovery in the U.S. Dollar would also prevent gold from moving higher in the near term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Staggers Despite Growing Appetite for Risk and Strengthening USD, but Bets on Fed Rate Cut Provide Comfort

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  • May 1, 2025
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Gold prices are now down for a third day in a row, having plunged to a two-week low, as a stronger US Dollar and better risk appetite—fuelled by a reduction in US-China tensions and positive trade rhetoric—tarnish the demand for the safe-haven metal. But the drawback looks limited as disappointing US macroeconomic data, such as a surprise GDP decline and lower inflation readings, drive expectations for dovish Federal Reserve rate cuts. These expectations, in turn, limit USD appreciation and give gold a cushion. Investors now look to important US economic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for more definitive guidance on the Fed’s policy course and gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Focus in the market is on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may have a major impact on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and gold’s direction. •  Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Lower GDP and softening inflation add to expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, which may cap USD strength and prop up gold prices. •  Geopolitical Updates: Any strengthening of geopolitical tensions, especially including Russia or US-China relations, might reactivate safe-haven demand for gold. •  Technical Levels under Scrutiny: A confirmed breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support level could trigger further downtrends towards $3,200 and $3,160, while attempts to recover are repelled at $3,260–$3,265 and $3,300. Multiple important factors that can influence the metal’s short-term direction are being closely observed by gold traders. All attention is now focused on forthcoming US economic data, especially the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may impact hopes surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Softer inflation and a shock GDP contraction earlier have already fueled market expectations for deep rate cuts, potentially curbing additional gains for the USD and underpinning gold. Geopolitical threats, particularly escalating tensions between Russia and events in US-China relations, also continue to be in the spotlight as possible drivers of safe-haven flows. Technically, a persistent breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support area could pave the way for further losses, while resistance around $3,265 and $3,300 could limit attempts at recovery. Gold’s short-term prospects are contingent upon pivotal US data releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls release, and shifting Fed rate cut expectations. Geopolitical uncertainty and USD strength will also be influential, with technical support at $3,229 continuing to be paramount for direction of price. • Gold prices are under pressure, near a two-week low due to firmer USD and risk-friendly sentiment. •  US-China trade optimism and easing tensions are lifting investor sentiment, lowering demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  US Dollar strength is suppressing gold, underpinned by positive sentiment and hawkish comments. •  Soft US macro data—such as a surprise contraction in GDP and weaker inflation—are fueling hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. •  Markets now expect as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through year-end, which could top USD gains and underpin gold. •  Geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe, could give a safety bid and cap gold’s downside. •  Key technical levels to monitor are support at $3,229 and resistance at $3,265–$3,300, which will determine short-term price action. Gold still wanders through a geopolitical and macroeconomic maze, where market sentiment is influenced by a mix of economic instability and changing international dynamics. The recent relaxation of US-China tensions and upbeat trade talks have heightened investor optimism, limiting the attractiveness of conventional safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, improved US Dollar performance with supportive comments about international trade agreements has dampened demand for gold. This notwithstanding, gold is being underpinned by increasing fear about the US economy’s health, as demonstrated by a surprising GDP contraction and decelerating private sector hiring. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Inflationary pressure also seems to be abating, with the most recent information indicating a deceleration in both headline and core inflation. These events have reinforced market expectations of further aggressive interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve over the next few months. As market players adjust strategies to meet new economic data and central bank cues, gold still has some underlying support. At the same time, lingering geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to Russia and Eastern Europe, continue to introduce uncertainty that can maintain interest in the precious metal as a long-term hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently fell below the crucial support range of $3,265–$3,260, prompting a cascade of selling pressure and driving prices to a two-week low of $3,221. Although momentum indicators have begun to lose bullish momentum, a clear break below the next significant support at $3,229–$3,228 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would affirm a bearish continuation towards the $3,200 level and potentially the $3,160 zone. On the upside, any recovery attempts may face resistance near the $3,260–$3,265 zone, followed by stronger barriers around the $3,300 mark and the $3,348–$3,350 supply region, where renewed selling interest could emerge. FORECAST If upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls report, reinforces expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold could find renewed support and begin to recover. A softer labor market or softer inflation numbers can heighten pressure on the Fed to cut policy, softening the US Dollar and making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Gold prices in such a case can recover towards the $3,300 mark and even retest higher resistance levels if risk-off sentiment returns owing to geopolitical tensions or global economic issues. On the other hand, in case the US economic data surprise positively—indicating resilience in the labor market or more sticky inflation—market expectations of Fed rate cuts diminish, a stronger USD results, and gold comes under additional downward pressure. Continued absence of safe-haven demand on account of bettering risk sentiment, particularly following positive global trade updates, could also be responsible for further losses. If gold falls below the $3,229 support level decisively, it may lead to a deeper correction towards $3,200 and even the $3,160 region in

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rallies in the Face of Intensifying Trade War: Safe-Haven Demand and Market Uncertainty Push Prices Up

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  • March 4, 2025
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Gold jumped more than 1% as intensifying trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China drove demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from these nations, leading to retaliatory actions, including a 25% tariff from Canada and up to 15% levies from China on U.S. agricultural goods. The trade war uncertainty, combined with weakening U.S. Treasury yields at a five-month low, has bolstered the appeal of gold. Technicals are pointing towards more bullish pressure, with the main resistance at $2,917 and possible support at $2,866. Market players are also watching Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, which have climbed to 85.6%, further shaping the path of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • The back-and-forth tariffs among the U.S., Canada, and China are also sparking uncertainty and leading investors towards safe-haven investments such as gold. • The U.S. 10-year yield registered a five-month low at 4.11%, making gold even more appealing as a bet against economic unrest and inflation. • With 85.6% chances of a Fed interest rate cut within six months, falling interest rates would further continue gold’s momentum. • Gold is resisting at $2,917 while support at $2,866 is critical to break in order to avoid another fall in the market. Gold is gaining further traction as rising trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China push investors towards safe-haven. The move by the U.S. to impose retaliatory tariffs, such as Canada’s 25% tariff on American imports and China’s 15% tariffs on agricultural products, has increased market uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a five-month low of 4.11%, enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic turmoil further. As Federal Reserve rate cut hopes surged to 85.6% by June, decreasing interest rates could be supportive of gold prices further. From a technical standpoint, gold has resistance at $2,917, and support at $2,866 has to remain firm to avoid further downward pressure. Gold holds up as rising tensions in trade pressure safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury yields decline to a five-month low. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also stand at 85.6% and back bullish sentiment further, as central resistance at $2,917 and support at $2,866 will indicate the next move. • Tariffs imposed by the U.S., Canada, and China continue to fuel the uncertainty in markets and raise the safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold rose more than 1% and trades at about $2,910 on concerns of trade war and weakening U.S. Treasury yields. • The U.S. 10-year yield reached a five-month low at 4.11%, contributing to gold’s appeal as an alternative asset. • Market odds for a Fed rate cut within six months are up to 85.6%, further supporting gold’s bullishness. • Gold is encountering resistance at $2,917, with the record high of $2,956 the next big level to respect. • Support at $2,866 is vital to stave off more losses, with further support available at $2,842 in case selling rises. • Congested price bars signal uncertainty on the part of investors, while safe-haven demand is due to keep gold propped up against further backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gold continues to be in focus for investors amid rising trade tensions between the U.S., China, and Canada. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to charge tariffs on Chinese and Canadian imports has sparked reprisals with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on American goods and China imposing 15% tariffs on major agriculture products. This back-and-forth trade war has spurred economic volatility, causing safe-haven asset demand to increase, such as gold. With global markets responding to the latest disagreements, investors are keeping an eye on further policy actions and economic reactions from the involved countries. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Also, concerns regarding the general economic outlook still shape investor mood. The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure to reduce interest rates, with market expectations for a rate cut by June reaching 85.6%. Geopolitical news, such as the U.S. temporarily suspending military aid to Ukraine, also contributes to the uncertainty. As inflation worries linger and economic growth continues to slow, the position of gold as a hedge against uncertainty will continue to be strong, rendering it an attractive asset for conservative investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to exhibit good momentum, building on its recent gains as market uncertainty persists. The price is currently consolidating in a tight band, demonstrating indecision from investors following last week’s volatility. The intraday Pivot Point of $2,879 is acting as the main support, with resistance at $2,917 being the next level to monitor for further upward movement. If the bullish momentum continues, a possible test of the all-time high of $2,956 is still on the cards. On the bearish side, $2,866 is a very important support level, corresponding to earlier lows. A fall below this level may result in additional selling pressure towards $2,842. Investors need to keep a close eye on these levels, as any breakout would determine the direction of the next trend. FORECAST The bullish momentum in gold is still intact as global uncertainties push investors towards safe-haven assets. If trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China continue to escalate, gold prices may witness a further rally. A breakout above the crucial resistance at $2,917 could drive prices towards the all-time high of $2,956. Moreover, growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June can also add to gold’s upside, as lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar weaker and hence gold more desirable. If inflation fears continue along with slowing growth, gold could stay in favor, and upward pressure on prices would persist. Conversely, any easing of trade tensions or diplomatic breakthroughs can dampen gold’s safe-haven appeal. A rising U.S. dollar, potentially driven by more positive economic readings or lowered expectations for interest-rate cuts, would also serve as a potential damper for gold prices. In the event that selling builds momentum, falling through the significant support at $2,866 might lead to more losses to $2,842. More profound correction can

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Steady at $31.50 as Rising Trade War Uncertainty Takes Grip

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  • March 4, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) remains steady at $31.50, supported by safe-haven buying as world trade tensions grow. The White House announced President Trump signed the order increasing the tariffs on imports from China to 20%, and Canada replied with retaliatory 25% tariffs on imports from the United States. China has also pledged countermeasures, further pushing market uncertainty. Mixed U.S. economic reports, such as a modest fall in ISM Manufacturing PMI but a better-than-expected S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, contribute to the market’s conservative sentiment. Investors are now eyeing future U.S. employment reports, which may affect the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing U.S.-China trade tensions and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs may fuel safe-haven demand, affecting silver prices in the short term. • Investors look for U.S. employment figures, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, to gauge possible Fed interest rate actions. • Indecisive U.S. manufacturing reports create economic uncertainty, making future releases pivotal in influencing silver price directions and investor attitude. • China’s commitment to countermeasures against U.S. tariffs will introduce volatility, keeping silver an attractive hedge against economic uncertainty. Silver prices are underpinned above $31.50 as rising tensions in trade among the U.S., China, and Canada spur safe-haven buying. The move by President Trump to hike tariffs on imports from China to 20% has prompted countermeasures, with Canada saying it will slap a 25% tariff on U.S. products and China promising countermeasures. In the meantime, conflicting U.S. factory data contributes to market uncertainty, keeping investors on guard before the important employment reports, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls. These economic releases will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which will have an impact on silver’s direction in the next sessions. Silver prices hold firm above $31.50 as mounting trade tensions drive safe-haven demand. Tariffs on China by the U.S. and Canadian retaliatory actions introduce uncertainty, while future U.S. jobs reports may determine the Federal Reserve’s policy and silver’s price action. • Silver holds firm above $31.50 as investors flee to safe havens amidst growing global trade tensions. • Trump’s 20% levy on Chinese imports has induced China to pledge countermeasures, introducing market uncertainty. • Canada intends to place a 25% tariff on imports from the U.S. totaling C$30 billion should U.S. tariffs be imposed. • Heightening trade tensions contribute to volatility, and thus silver is becoming an appealing hedge against economic turbulence. • Though ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened, S&P Global’s final February PMI topped forecasts, heightening uncertainty. • ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls are awaited for hints at potential Fed interest rate action. • Silver’s path will be contingent on developments in trade tensions and important economic indicators impacting investor sentiment. Silver remains strong in demand as global trade tensions intensify, further solidifying its position as a safe-haven asset of choice. With the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods and Canada announcing retaliatory actions, investors are looking to silver more than ever as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The constant trade wars are not only affecting diplomatic relations but also creating supply chain and global economic stability fears. Silver is thus still a safe haven for investors looking for stability in times of uncertainty. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Outside of trade policy, economic statistics and geopolitical uncertainty have a significant influence on sentiment in the market. The U.S. employment figures are under close watch by investors, as the direction of labor market trends tends to inform overall economic decisions. China’s willingness to pursue countermeasures to U.S. tariffs provides another source of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, silver’s function as a store of value is increasingly prominent, further solidifying its status as a preferred asset during times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) is holding steady above $31.50, with good support at this price as buyers remain in control. The price is holding above important moving averages, a sign of continued bullish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still close to neutral levels, indicating scope for additional gains without underlying overbought levels. Also, silver is probing a resistance area near $31.70, and a strong breakout above this level can pave the way for additional advances. But if it fails to maintain current support levels, it can lead to a consolidation period before the next direction. Price action is closely monitored by traders for confirmation of the next direction. FORECAST Silver prices may extend the upside further if global trade tensions continue to mount, forcing investors into safe-haven assets. A convincing breakout above the $31.70 resistance level can lead to further advances, which can even challenge the $32.00 mark in the near term. If coming U.S. economic reports, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, point to economic weakness, hopes of a more dovish Federal Reserve will further lend support to silver prices. Further, any other retaliatory Chinese or Canadian trade action will increase uncertainty, lending more bullish value to silver. Downside risk will come if trade tensions lessen or economic data hints at a strong U.S. labor market, causing selling in silver due to improving risk appetite. A dip below the key support at $31.50 may initiate a correction, potentially driving prices towards the $31.20 or even $31.00 levels. Moreover, a firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields may pressure silver, as investors redirect attention towards interest-bearing assets. In the short term, silver’s direction will be influenced by geopolitical events and economic indicators that influence market sentiment.

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