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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Taps $39.13 in Safe-Haven Demand and Tariff Deterrence

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  • July 15, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) persists above $38.00 following increased safe-haven demand under heightening geopolitical tensions and inflation fears. The price is set to test the 14-year high at $39.13, underpinned by investor caution after the warning of “very severe” tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Russia and NATO’s increased military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments suggesting possible inflation surges caused by tariff pressures have cooled rate-cut expectations. Persistent trade tensions in the world, new US tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, are still feeding through to market sentiment to support silver’s bull run. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver will likely test the $39.13 level once more, a figure hit on Monday, with ongoing safe-haven demand. • Trump’s threat of “very severe” tariffs against Russia and added NATO military support for Ukraine might instigate additional investor risk aversion. • Jerome Powell’s warning about inflation risks associated with tariffs, potentially delaying interest rate reductions, will affect silver, a non-yielding asset. • New tariffs from the U.S. on Mexican imports and pending talks with the EU might instill global uncertainty, adding to silver’s appeal. Silver (XAG/USD) remains firmly above the $38.00 level, buoyed by revived safe-haven buying as geopolitical and trade tensions rise. Markets are focused on events following a warning from former President Donald Trump to impose severe tariffs on Russia and an affirmation of heightened military support to Ukraine through NATO. These considerations, combined with sustained inflation fears underscored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are fueling a risk-averse mood in financial markets. With expectations for later interest rate cuts and increased global uncertainty, silver is well-placed to test the recent 14-year peak of $39.13. Silver maintains its position above $38.00 as safe-haven buying picks up on geopolitical tensions and inflation worries. Bullish players focus on the possibility of moving toward the 14-year peak of $39.13, aided by postponed Fed rate cut hopes and fresh tariff threats. •  Silver trading at $38.10, sitting above crucial support during safe-haven inflows. •   Price considers a possible retest of the 14-year high of $39.13 seen on Monday. •  Trump warns “very severe” tariffs against Russia, spurring geopolitical risk sentiment. •  NATO verifies stepped-up arms shipments to Ukraine, raising market wariness. •  Fed Chair Powell cautions about summer spikes in inflation resulting from tariffs, keeping rate cut hopes at bay. •   Trump condemns Fed policy, demanding interest rates below 1%. •   New U.S. tariffs on Mexican tomatoes illustrate escalating global trade uncertainty. The silver market continues in robust fundamental support as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Former President Donald Trump’s threat to slap “very severe” tariffs on Russia has increased global unease, particularly as the Ukraine war intensifies. His joint press release with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on billions of dollars’ worth of defense deals, such as the sale of Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, marks an increased commitment from Western partners and contributes to the overall geopolitical risk environment. These events have seen investors take refuge in precious metals such as silver. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from international tensions, domestic economic policy is shaping sentiment in the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that inflation could rise during the summer from tariff pressures have fueled fears of delayed monetary loosening. Trump’s further criticism of the Fed, calling for interest rates to be reduced to 1% or less, has added to doubts about central bank autonomy. Trade tensions continue unabated with the U.S. government announcing a 17% tariff on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico after talks collapsed. This mix of political, economic, and trade-driven events is serving to sustain investor demand for silver as a secure asset in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) is in bullish configuration as it consolidates above the crucial support level of $38.00. Strong buying demand is indicated in this area through price action, while momentum indicators such as the RSI remain in positive value, suggesting scope for further appreciation. If bulls manage to maintain momentum, silver may try once again to break out above the recent 14-year high of $39.13. A convincing close above this level might trigger the door to a move towards the psychological mark of $40.00, and any corrective slide is expected to find support somewhere in the vicinity of $37.50 or the 20-day moving average. FORECAST Silver is set to continue its short-term uptrend, buoyed by safe-haven demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions. If the bullish sentiment persists, the price may retest the new 14-year high of $39.13 and eventually break above it. A continued move above this resistance level can initiate fresh buying interest, pushing silver to the $40.00 psychological mark. Other driving factors include prolonged worldwide uncertainty, slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts, and a rising tide of trade disagreements. On the bearish side, silver could be pressured if geopolitical tensions decrease or the Federal Reserve catches markets off guard with a dovish monetary policy tilt. A breach below the $38.00 support level could lead to a correction, with the next major support coming at $37.50 and $36.80. Further, any rumors of de-escalation in trade tensions or a firming U.S. dollar can mute silver’s attractiveness, causing short-term corrections. Nevertheless, the overall bias is likely to continue being cautiously bullish unless these bearish triggers become more severe.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Increases and Geopolitical Trade Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 1, 2025
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Gold prices are moving higher, reaching a three-day high of around $3,333 on increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased geopolitical trade uncertainties. The US Dollar dipped to its lowest point since February 2022, as the downwardly pressured economic data, fears of a widening fiscal deficit, and Trump’s hawkish trade approach before the July 9 tariff expiration day weighed. Safe-haven interest in gold is also underpinned by political tensions and volatility around key US macroeconomic events during the week, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and highly expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are factoring in a 74% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, with scope for easing as early as July, which continues to sustain gold prices. •  The USD has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 on the back of growing fiscal worries and dovish expectations of monetary policy. •  Trump’s latest tariff threat on several nations may ignite safe-haven buying and push gold even higher. •  Major releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be keenly observed for new direction in USD and gold price movements. Gold prices are still rising as investors react to increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global trade tensions. The weakening US Dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, reflects market concerns over the Fed’s potential policy easing and the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold are uncertainties surrounding former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, with the July 9 deadline looming. Traders also look toward critical US economic reports this week—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Nonfarm Payrolls report—that may continue to impact gold’s near-term trend. Gold prices rise with Fed rate cut expectations and trade uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand. A softer US Dollar and threatened tariffs by Trump further bolster the bullish case. Traders now look to critical US data, including the NFP report, for additional guidance. • Gold prices increase for the second day in a row, hitting approximately $3,333 on the back of firm safe-haven demand. • Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut before September increase gold and push the US Dollar down. • The USD declines to its lowest level since February 2022 as a result of fiscal worries and poor economic data. • Trump’s fresh trade warnings prior to the July 9 deadline contribute to global uncertainty and underpin gold. • US Treasury Secretary hints at potential tariff increases from 11% to 50%, reinforcing market conservativeness. • Market participants are looking for important US macroeconomic releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and NFP. • Technical resistance is around $3,350–$3,370 and major support is at $3,245–$3,200. Gold remains a focus for investors as world markets respond to a combination of economic and political events. Increasing bets the Federal Reserve will follow quickly with rate cuts in coming weeks have reduced the US Dollar, boosting the allure of gold as a non-yielding haven asset. In the meantime, recent indicators of shrinking consumer spending and worries about a growing federal deficit are putting further pressure on the central bank to step in, supporting the market’s dovish bias. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a significant part in favoring gold. Former President Donald Trump has intensified his trade rhetoric, threatening higher tariffs on nations that don’t seal agreements before the July 9 deadline. Those threats and the prospect of rising trade tensions have contributed to investor wariness. As markets expect major US economic releases this week, gold is preferred by traders who want stability in the face of economic and policy-related uncertainties. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is depicting a consistent bullish inclination while it is trading close to a three-day high level of $3,333. The nearest resistance can be seen in the $3,324–$3,325 range, a breakout above which might pave the way for additional upsides towards the $3,350 and $3,370 levels. Long-term strength above these levels can push the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, initial support comes at $3,300, followed by stronger support around $3,276 and $3,245. A fall below these levels may switch momentum back in the favor of the bears and reveal the $3,210–$3,200 zone. FORECAST Gold could pierce near-term resistance at the $3,325 level and target the next significant barrier at $3,350. A clear breach above this level could set the stage for the $3,370 area, and eventually, the psychological $3,400 threshold. Sustained dollar weakness, added assurance on Fed rate cut expectations, and growing worldwide trade tensions would more than likely drive further rises in gold prices. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,300 support level may invite a bearish pullback, revealing the $3,276 and $3,245 levels. A break below these supports might speed up the fall towards the $3,210–$3,200 range. Further downside risk might emerge if future US macroeconomic indicators surprise to the upside, alleviating pressure on the Fed and bolstering the US Dollar, hence diminishing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dips on Trade Optimism but Resists Bets on Fed Cut and Geopolitical Threats

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  • May 26, 2025
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Gold prices began the week on a weaker footing, dragged by weakening safe-haven demand as US-EU trade optimism picked up following President Trump’s postponement of planned tariffs. Still, the negative seems contained as fears about the US fiscal situation, continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and increasing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations continue to underpin the yellow metal. Although the recent decline, technicals and overall fundamentals indicate any drop is likely to be considered a buying opportunity, with major support at $3,325 and major resistance at $3,400–$3,500 levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors will be looking closely at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for hints regarding the timing and magnitude of expected interest rate reductions, which can play a huge role in determining the price of gold. • All-important data releases such as Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday), Preliminary GDP (Thursday), and the PCE Price Index (Friday) will give more indication of the health of the US economy and influence market sentiment. • Rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and whatever fresh sanctions or reactions from major powers, will continue to be key drivers of safe-haven appetite for gold. • The $3,325–$3,324 trendline is support, with a break lower potentially challenging $3,300 and $3,283. On the upside, breaking above $3,366 could set the stage for $3,400, $3,430, and perhaps the all-time high at $3,500. Gold prices continue in the spotlight as markets await economic indicators and geopolitical events. This week, the spotlight will be on the release of the FOMC minutes and significant US data such as Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and the PCE Price Index, which have the potential to influence expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, ongoing worries about the US fiscal deficit and rising geopolitical tensions—specifically in Ukraine and the Middle East—are set to maintain safe-haven demand. From a technical perspective, gold is clinging to support around $3,325, and a move above $3,366 could set the stage for a break towards the $3,400–$3,500 zone, maintaining bullish strength. Gold prices are supported by prospects of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions despite pressure from weakening safe-haven demand. Gold prices will be watched for new directions this week by traders as they await key US data and FOMC minutes. A break above $3,366 can propel towards the $3,400–$3,500 zone. • Gold prices softened slightly as optimism in trade alleviated safe-haven demand after President Trump postponed EU tariffs. • Support is in place as Fed rate cut expectations continue to rise on weak US inflation and slowing growth. • Geopolitical uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to support gold demand. • US fiscal worries escalate as Trump’s budget bill threatens to exacerbate the budget deficit, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge. • The US Dollar falls, reaching a new monthly low, supporting gold prices by making foreign purchases less expensive. • FOMC minutes and economic data from the US such as GDP and PCE Index are major events this week that will determine the direction of gold. • Technicals indicate support at $3,325–$3,324, and resistance at $3,366; a breakout can reach the $3,400–$3,500 levels. Gold prices began the week on weaker footing as declining trade tensions between the US and the European Union lessened the urgent demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump’s announcement to postpone the imposition of a 50% tariff on the EU boosted optimism across global markets, leading investors to take on a more risk-on stance. Yet, that optimism is moderated by ongoing fears of the US fiscal situation, after the passing of a huge budget bill that has the potential to greatly expand the federal deficit in the years ahead. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks remain the support for gold’s attractiveness. The Ukraine war, combined with elevated Middle East tensions, keeps investors on edge and underpins demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates later this year—fuelled by disappointing inflation readings and a slowing growth picture—contribute to the bullish tone around the metal. With global uncertainty persisting, gold continues to be a popular hedge against economic turmoil and political shocks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still underpinned by a wider bullish pattern, and recent price action continues to look resilient above important trendline levels. In spite of a minor pullback, the metal continues to be traded in an uptrend channel, reflecting continued buying interest on dips. Momentum indicators on the hourly and daily charts continue to reflect a positive bias, which indicates that any downside is going to be contained. So long as gold remains above near-term supports, the current trend benefits buyers with scope for continuation higher if bull sentiment advances. FORECAST Prices of gold can continue higher in the next sessions with support from dovish expectations over monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. With markets already factoring in several rate reductions this year because of dampening inflation and a slow economic environment, falling interest rates may further erode the strength of the US Dollar and make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions as well as fears regarding US fiscal health are set to maintain strong investor appetite for safe-haven assets. If bullishness prevails, gold may revisit key psychological points, with room to test old highs. On the bearish side, gold may come under pressure if trade sentiment continues to improve or if near-term US macroeconomic data surprises to the upside, reducing the need for rate cuts. Any indications of resilience in inflation or better-than-forecast economic data would lead to a more hawkish stance by the Fed, favoring the US Dollar and making gold less appealing. Although overall fundamentals remain generally favorable, any short-term change could come from a fleeting shift in risk appetite or profit-taking if support levels are broken.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Safe-Haven Demand Grows and Trade War Fears Bite: Key Drivers Behind XAU/USD Trends

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  • March 5, 2025
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Prices of gold keep rising as demand for safe haven increases in the wake of rising trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports have taken a toll on markets, leading investors to turn to the precious metal as a safe haven. The US also suspended military aid to Ukraine, further boosting gold’s attractiveness. But there are challenges to non-yielding assets such as gold by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. Market players await further guidance from key US economic indicators such as the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change. Technically, gold is still in an uptrend channel, maintaining above important psychological support at $2,900, with scope for more on the upside towards its all-time peak of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • Raising US tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China add to market volatility, fueling safe-haven buying and underpinning gold prices amid economic uncertainty. • Increasing US Treasury yields are exerting bear pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, possibly capping further gains despite firm safe-haven demand. • The US suspension of military aid to Ukraine stokes geopolitical tensions, making gold more attractive as investors seek refuge from global uncertainty. • Future US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports will hold key to gauging economic growth, potentially impacting gold’s short-term price action. Prices of gold continue to be at the center as investors try to navigate a contradictory blend of trade tensions, growing US Treasury yields, and geopolitics. Implementation of US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has added to geopolitical tensions, contributing to gold’s bullishness. Yet increasing Treasury yields are a threat to non-yielding assets such as gold, and this may limit gains. Traders now look forward to some major US economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, which may further guide XAU/USD in the near term. Gold prices jump as growing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties trigger safe-haven demand. Increasing US Treasury yields, however, pose a hurdle to further growth. Market guidance comes from forthcoming key US economic data. • Gold prices jump as investors search for refuge due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. • Fresh US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spur market volatility, contributing to gold’s rising momentum. • US suspension of military aid to Ukraine contributes to worldwide uncertainty, making gold more attractive. • Higher yields squeeze non-yielding assets such as gold, constraining further price appreciation. • A stronger US Dollar suppresses gold, producing mixed market sentiment. • Market participants monitor the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports closely for information about economic growth. • Gold maintains major support at $2,900, with the resistance at its all-time high of $2,956. Gold prices continue to gain steam as investors move towards safe-haven assets following rising global uncertainties. The latest imposition of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China has increased market uncertainty, and with it, there are fears of a possible trade war. This has led investors to find safe haven in gold, which is conventionally considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has further added to global tensions, supporting gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset during uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from trade and geopolitical issues, market participants are also paying close attention to important US economic indicators. Indices like the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change are likely to offer insights into the resilience of the US economy, impacting investor attitudes. Although worries about weakening economic growth continue, the effect of tariffs on international trade and consumer expenditure is a significant area of concern. Against this backdrop, gold remains in the limelight as a safe-haven asset, a sign of investors’ conservative approach to an increasingly complex financial environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is still in an uptrend channel, signaling a long-term bullish trend. The metal is still trading above the important psychological support level of $2,900, which coincides with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, supporting bullish momentum. Should the price hold above this level, it might target primary resistance at $2,956, its all-time high. But a breakdown below immediate support can soften short-term momentum, potentially resulting in a pullback to lower trendline support. In general, technical indicators indicate that the bullish bias is still intact unless a serious breakdown happens. FORECAST Gold prices should continue to enjoy a bullish picture in the near term as demand for safe haven continues to rule investor sentiment. The rising tensions in trade, especially the US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, may further push gold’s attraction. Moreover, geopolitical risks such as the US suspending aid to Ukraine are contributing to risk globally, for which gold seems to be the attractive asset. If economic concerns continue to deepen and market fears intensify, gold may receive an upward push towards its all-time high of $2,956. Solid buying interest at critical support levels and continuous momentum above the $2,900 level might consolidate the bullish trend. To the downside, increasing US Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar might press on gold prices, capping further advances. Increased bond yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which can lead to profit-taking. Also, if the next US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, show the economy is resilient, gold may come under pressure. A break below the $2,900 psychological support level can lead to further losses, with the next significant support at $2,850. But until investor sentiment takes a dramatic turn, any bearish movement could still be capped.

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