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Gold Pulls Back from All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Rate Verdict: Will Powell Trigger the Next Rally?

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  • September 17, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back from all-time highs around $3,703 as market participants wait with bated breath for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, set to offer a 25 basis point reduction. As of writing, the metal trades at about $3,675, pushed lower by a minor US Dollar rebound but underpinned by muted Treasury yields and robust safe-haven buying. Although profit-taking has pulled recent advances, the overall bullish trend is intact, with the Fed’s policy expectation and Powell’s comment guiding whether Gold resumes its advance towards fresh highs or gets into a sharper correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone expects a 25 bps cut, but even suggestions of more or quicker easing could have a big influence on Gold’s direction. • The tone of Fed Chair regarding inflation, labor market conditions, and future policy direction will be essential for determining market sentiment. • Levels of immediate support are $3,650–$3,645, and resistance levels are $3,675–$3,700, with $3,703 as the primary breakout level. • Geopolitical uncertainties and economic uncertainty remain the drivers of Gold’s bullish thesis in spite of interim corrections. Prices of Gold are settling back from their new all-time highs at around $3,703, with market players waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for the next directional signal. The precious metal is at around $3,675, down fractionally on the day as investors take profits and the US Dollar demonstrates mild firmness. Market expectations are strongly biased towards a 25 basis point rate reduction, but focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s direction and the revised economic projections for hints on the speed of future easing. Even as the recent pullback from Gold exists, its broader bullish trend continues to be underpinned by safe-haven demand, tame Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Gold drops from record highs of about $3,703 as traders wait for the Fed’s rate move, with markets penciled in for a 25 bps cut. XAU/USD is trading at $3,675, with Powell’s direction set to guide the next major move in prices. The pullback notwithstanding, safe-haven demand still remains bullish for the overall outlook. • Gold pulls back from record highs of about $3,703 as traders hold on for the Fed’s policy move. • XAU/USD is trading at about $3,675, down close to 0.35% on the day. • The markets are forecasting a 25 bps Fed rate cut, bringing the funds rate down to 4.00%-4.25%. • Powell’s press conference and new economic projections will be driving market sentiment. • Support in the immediate vicinity is $3,650–$3,645 and resistance of $3,675–$3,700. • Safe-haven buying, muted yields, and geopolitical tensions support Gold’s overall uptrend. • A dovish Fed may initiate new highs, while caution would risk a more significant correction. Gold is giving a breather to its record-breaking rally, as investors now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The precious metal’s price has been boosted by hopes of looser US monetary policy, ongoing global uncertainties, and healthy safe-haven demand. Investors are keeping a close eye on how the Fed will weigh slowing job growth and sticky inflation since its policy framework will be instrumental in determining the market direction for the remainder of the year. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from monetary policy, Gold is underpinned by broader macroeconomic and political variables. The continued geopolitical tensions, worry about world growth, and increased uncertainty of US politics continue to uphold its status as a safe-haven asset. With major banks expecting several rate cuts through the end of the year, the overall background still supports Gold, and thus the Fed’s guidance is a key event for market players in focus. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is steadying around $3,675 after pulling back from the all-time high of $3,703. Initial support is found at $3,650–$3,645, corresponding to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while the resistance is at $3,675–$3,700. A move below support would risk exposing the $3,620 area, while a rebound might force a retest of the all-time high, with possible extension to $3,750. The RSI at 51 indicates neutral momentum after cooling from overbought, while the MACD reflects declining bullish strength, indicating the Fed’s move is likely to be the catalyst for the next big move. FORECAST If the Fed communicates a dovish tone with the broadly anticipated 25 bps rate cut, Gold may get back into gear and test the record high of $3,703. A firm breakdown above this level may set the path towards $3,750 and beyond, backed by safe-haven demand, muted yields, and forecasts of additional policy accommodation. Increased geopolitical risk or indications that the US economy is weakening can further drive buying interest. Conversely, if Powell’s advice is conservative or reduces expectations on the extent of future cuts, Gold could attract selling pressure again. Breaking below the $3,650 support area could reveal lower levels around $3,620 and the psychological $3,600 level. A sharper US Dollar recovery or a reduction in geopolitical tensions could also deter bullion, bringing in a longer-term corrective phase before any new rally attempt.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Hovers Near Record Levels as US Federal Reserve Rate Cut Spec Bets Lose Strength US Dollar

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  • September 16, 2025
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Gold prices hover around record levels after reaching the $3,690 level, as increasing hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut continue to spur weakness in the US Dollar and shore up the non-yielding metal. Though overbought conditions have driven marginal profit-taking in advance of pivotal central bank announcements this week, such as Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ decisions, downside for Gold is still limited. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to support safe-haven demand, maintaining the overall Gold outlook bullish in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets overwhelmingly anticipate a 25 bps rate cut, with Powell’s cues for subsequent policy actions to influence Gold’s next path. • Policy statements from the BoC, BoE, and BoJ towards the end of this week can introduce volatility in Gold prices. • Overbought RSI readings above 70 indicate modest upside momentum at the $3,700 level, instilling caution for new entries. • Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to offer safe-haven support to Gold. Gold continues in a bullish consolidation close to record levels as investors wait for pivotal central bank announcements this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates by 25 bps, but the focus lies on Powell’s comments on the speed of future easing, which will have a significant bearing on the US Dollar and the path of Gold. While technicals indicate overbought levels that can constrain near-term gains above the $3,700 level, safe-haven demand fueled by recurring geopolitical tensions still buffers the downside, maintaining a positive tone for the precious metal. Gold hovers at all-time highs near $3,690 as Fed rate-cut speculation damps the US Dollar. Overbought levels restrain near-term upside, though geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand remain supportive of the bullish trend. • Gold approached a new record high at around $3,690 in the Asian session on Tuesday. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the US Dollar, supporting Gold’s allure. • Markets expect a 25 bps reduction with an eye on Powell’s hint on additional easing ahead. • Overbought RSI values greater than 70 indicate slim room for near-term upside profits. • Decision from major central banks from BoC, BoE, and BoJ this week could contribute to volatility. • Geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine fighting and Middle East unrest offer safe-haven support. • Firm support levels appear at $3,645 and $3,610, while $3,700 is the major resistance barrier. Gold is trading close to record highs as investors continue to be interested in the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. As markets are mostly pricing in a 25 bps cut, all eyes now turn towards the Fed’s revised economic projections and Powell’s comments, which will likely influence expectations for the pace of easing over the next few months. The dovish bias has been putting significant downward pressure on the US Dollar, lifting demand for the non-yielding precious metal. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the Fed, investors are keeping a close eye on other central bank announcements this week, such as decisions by the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. In addition, increased geopolitical tensions—covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict to renewed Middle East upheaval—are creating further safe-haven demand for Gold. This mix of supportive fundamentals and geopolitical tensions continues to have investor sentiment firmly bullish. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent breakout above a bullish flag pattern is an indicator of strong upside momentum, though the daily RSI remaining above 70 is an indicator of overbought conditions and caution is needed. The $3,700 level has now emerged as a critical psychological resistance, while near-term support is in the form of $3,645, followed by $3,610. A break and hold above $3,700 could lead to further increases, but a break below $3,600 could see a more severe corrective move towards the $3,500 area. FORECAST In the event that the Fed reaffirms a dovish policy and hints at several rate cuts in the near future, Gold can penetrate the $3,700 psychological level and continue its rally. Ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, combined with geopolitical tensions-driven safe-haven demand, may drive more upside momentum and maintain buyers firmly in charge. Conversely, if the Fed provides a dovish outlook or cues a slower pace of easing, Gold can come under profit-taking pressure. A retreat below $3,645 can put the $3,610–$3,600 zone in jeopardy, and a further fall can even put the $3,500 level in the spotlight, particularly if risk appetite picks up in overseas markets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rebounds Ahead of Trump-Zelensky Meeting as Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost Safe-Haven Demand

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  • August 18, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded sharply from a two-week low on Monday, gaining support from retreating US Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The safe-haven metal also attracted buying interest as US President Donald Trump was meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some of the most important European leaders to talk of a possible peace deal with Russia. But a weak appreciation in the US Dollar and a general risk-on mood in the global markets might cap the upside momentum, with traders keeping a close eye on future FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for new policy signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is more and more expecting a rate reduction in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating at least two reductions by the end of the year. • Bilateral negotiations and then European discussions of a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement are watched by investors for geopolitical signals. • Falling Treasury yields underpin gold, but a modest USD recovery could limit gains. • Traders look to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for transparency on the Fed’s short-term policy direction. Gold prices made a sharp rebound from a two-week trough on Monday, underpinned by declining US Treasury yields and increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in September. The yellow metal’s safe-haven demand was additionally fueled by expectations of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders to talk about a possible peace agreement with Russia. But a modest recovery for the US Dollar and a broadly positive risk appetite in world markets may cap additional gains for gold, with traders waiting for the next FOMC Minutes and speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium for more definitive policy cues. Gold recovered from a two-week low as US bond yields ease and bets on Fed rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal. Geopolitical events, such as Trump-Zelensky discussions, and future Fed signals will be main motivators for its next direction. • Gold (XAU/USD) recovered more than $30 from a two-week low on Monday. • Falling US Treasury yields and September bets on Fed rate cuts boosted the metal. • CME FedWatch Tool indicates two or more cuts by end-year probability. • Trump-Zelensky summit and European leaders’ negotiations on a peace agreement provided geopolitical boost. • Modest US Dollar strength and risk-on market tone put a lid on additional advance. • Traders look for policy guidance from FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. • Technicals indicate resistance around $3,355-$3,374 and support around $3,324-$3,323. Gold picked up steam at the beginning of the week, tapping strength from declining US Treasury bond yields and increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve will reopen the rate-cutting taps in September. The change in monetary policy expectations has rekindled appetite for the non-yielding precious metal, which is appealing to investors looking for stability. In addition, the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, followed by further discussions with European leaders on a possible Russia-Ukraine peace accord, has boosted safe-haven demand for gold in the face of heightened geopolitical interest. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, recent US economic data have shaped market sentiment. Although retail sales were growing steadily, inflation expectations crept up, indicating persisting price pressures. Consumer confidence, though, softened appreciably, reflecting caution in households regarding the economic environment. It is against this that investors are keenly observing the publication of FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for direction on the speed of monetary loosening that will determine gold’s near-term demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has strongly bounced back from the $3,324–3,323 support level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July rally. The above 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart recovery indicates fresh bullish strength, with the oscillators also shifting into positive territory. A continued advance above the $3,355 level, which is equivalent to the 50% retracement, may set the stage for more gains toward $3,372–3,374 and potentially the $3,400 psychological level. To the negative, near-term support lies in the $3,346 area, with a violation unleashing the $3,300 round number and further losses toward $3,283–3,282. FORECAST If gold is able to hold its recovery above important resistance levels, the momentum may stretch to the $3,372–3,374 range based on Fed rate cut hopes and safe-haven buying in a climate of geopolitical uncertainty. Another push may enable the metal to retake the $3,400 level and even test the monthly high around $3,408–3,410 levels, particularly if bond yields continue to decline and the US Dollar loses ground. Conversely, not breaking above near-term support at $3,346 or a break below $3,324–3,323 support would re-ignite selling pressure. This would expose gold to retesting of the $3,300 psychological barrier, with further losses potentially pushing it down toward $3,283–3,282 and even the end-June swing low around $3,268 should risk appetite firm up and the US Dollar regain momentum.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls Below $3,400 as Tariff Tensions and Fed Uncertainty Halt Rally

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  • August 6, 2025
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Gold retreated below the $3,400 level on Wednesday, breaking a four-day rally as investors became wary with increasing U.S. Treasury yields, fresh tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump, and Fed policy uncertainty. The gold metal ran into resistance at the psychological level, with pace slowing down even as geopolitics continued to remain tense and hopes were raised of a September rate cut. Weak U.S. economic indicators, such as ISM Services, and lingering inflation risks further dulled market sentiment, while rumors surrounding Fed leadership transition fuelled the defensive mood in money markets. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are closely observing for signs on a possible rate cut next month amidst conflicting economic data and political stress on the Fed. •  Trump’s new tariff threats—against pharma, semiconductors, India, and Russia—may trigger renewed trade tensions and affect safe-haven demand for gold. •  Gold is still struggling with the pivotal $3,400 level, with momentum indicators reflecting indecision and potential downside risks. •  The next nomination to fill departing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s seat could affect the policy tone at the Fed and cause market fluctuations. Gold prices dipped slightly below the $3,400 level on Wednesday, ending a four-day uptrend as investors reevaluated the Federal Reserve’s policy path and responded to revived global trade tensions. The metal also encountered solid resistance near the psychological threshold, with advances capped by a firm U.S. Dollar and Treasury yield rebound before a crucial debt auction. Political risks increased after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned and Trump’s hawkish tariff talk against various industries and nations. Expectations for a September rate cut remain intact, but the mix of economic uncertainty, inflation fear, and geopolitical events continues to instill a defensive trading tone for gold. Gold took a breather, dipping below $3,400 levels as investors balanced Fed policy risks and fresh tariff threats from President Trump. Higher Treasury yields and conflicting U.S. economic data further contributed to market caution, limiting gold’s upside. • Gold fell below $3,400 after rallying for four days, with strong resistance at the psychological level. • U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield reversing from a three-month low. • Trump ramped up tariff threats, versus pharma, semiconductors, India, and Russia, heightening geopolitics risk. •  ISM Services PMI declined to 50.1, marking stagnation in services and persisting labor market softness. •  Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stepped down, heightening uncertainty regarding the Fed’s course prior to the September policy meeting. •  Markets anticipate an 87% probability of a September rate cut, capturing anticipations of looser policy. • Technicals indicate indecision, with gold consolidating close to support at the 50-day SMA and resistance in the region of $3,390–$3,400. Gold prices continued to face pressure as investors became cautious amidst a jumbled array of political, economic, and monetary events. Former President Donald Trump rekindled global trade worries by using forceful tariff threats on imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and nations such as India and Russia. These remarks injected new layers of geopolitical uncertainty, and investors sat on their hands. In the meantime, U.S. economic data have provided mixed signals with the ISM Services PMI flattening in July and increasing input costs suggesting chronic inflation, further clouding the question of the strength of the U.S. economy. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from economic considerations, political events at the Federal Reserve have also commanded investor interest. The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has left a key vacancy at a time of heightened market anxiety about imminent interest rate choices. Gossip regarding her replacement—plus Trump’s potential role in shaping the direction of the central bank—has served to further enhance the market’s conservative mood. With nothing significant on the horizon in terms of data releases, eyes now shift to future comments from Federal Reserve officials for possible hints at policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is now consolidating just above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,346, having been unable to hold the breakout above the resistance zone of $3,390–$3,400. The metal briefly broke below the lower trendline of an ascending triangle pattern last week but bounced back above the 100-day SMA near $3,282. Momentum indicators are still mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuating around the neutral 52 level, indicating a lack of strong directional polarity. The MACD is displaying initial signs of a recovery with a small bullish crossover, pointing to ebbing bearish pressure. A conclusive close above $3,400 may initiate a rally towards $3,450 or even retest all-time highs of around $3,500. FORECAST If gold can overcome the critical $3,390–$3,400 resistance level with solid volume, it may spark renewed buying pressure. A breakout success would tend to draw new buying interest, clearing the way toward $3,450. Continued advances above that may revisit the all-time high at about $3,500, particularly if geopolitical tensions continue and market expectations for a September Fed rate cut grow further. On the negative side, if support at the 50-day SMA around $3,346 fails, gold could be vulnerable to further losses. Such a breach will set the stage for the retesting of the 100-day SMA around $3,282, which was a strong support level in the last week’s selloff. If bearish pressure grows stronger and prices sink below that, the subsequent targets would be close to $3,200 and $3,150, particularly if U.S. economic indicators surprise to the higher side or political uncertainty surrounding the Fed diminishes.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stays Below Multi-Week High as Trade Tensions Counter Fed Rate Uncertainty

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  • July 14, 2025
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Gold price stays range-bound below a multi-week high as opposing market forces make traders wary. While lowering expectations of an instant Fed rate cut bolster the US Dollar and negate the non-yielding metal, increasing global trade tensions—particularly new US tariff threats against the EU and Mexico—enforce safe-haven buying. Investors are waiting for next US inflation data for more insight into the direction of Fed’s policy, which will determine the next big move of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • New tariff threats by President Trump on the EU and Mexico boost global risk aversion, fueling demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. • Fading chances of an imminent Fed rate cut favor the US Dollar, limiting gold’s short-term upside potential. • Traders are looking ahead to significant US inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week, which may define speculation surrounding the Fed’s policy direction and determine gold’s next direction. • The downside in gold seems supported around $3,300, while bulls look to retake the $3,400 level, supported by a bullish technical pattern. Gold price is stabilizing below a multi-week high in a tug-of-war between stronger US Dollar and rising global trade tensions. The fading prospects of an imminent Fed rate cut have boosted the greenback, which is holding back the non-yielding bullion. But new US threats of trade against the European Union and Mexico soured market mood, underpinning gold’s safe-haven allure. With investors looking for decisive US inflation data and additional Fed commentary, gold is stuck in a defensive holding position, with limited downside risk and scope for renewed upside momentum. Gold price trades defensively below recent highs with lower bets on Fed rate cuts underpinning the US Dollar. But increasing trade tensions maintain demand for the safe-haven metal. Investors are awaiting US inflation data for firmer guidance. • Gold price consolidates below a multi-week high, weighed down by improved US Dollar performance. • Lower probability of an imminent Fed rate cut aids the greenback and caps gold’s upside. • US President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on the EU and Mexico increase global trade tensions and spike safe-haven demand. • Market sentiment remains weak, with investors on edge amid contradictory economic signals. • Near-term US CPI and PPI data are important for determining expectations about the Fed’s next move. • Technical support perceived around $3,300, with bulls looking for a possible move towards $3,400. • FOMC minutes indicate concerns about inflation, supporting speculation of delayed monetary easing. Gold continues to be in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset in a complicated mix of global economic and political developments. The most recent driver has been renewed tensions in trade, ignited by the threat of 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union and Mexico by US President Donald Trump. These declarations have shaken investor confidence, supplemented by an already risk-averse market climate. Consequently, demand for gold—historically regarded as a hedge against uncertainty—has been sustained despite headwinds from other economic influences. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, market participants are carefully watching signs from the US Federal Reserve on its monetary policy direction. Although there are still some officials worried about ongoing inflation, the general tone is one of no rush to cut rates immediately. This has supported the US Dollar and created uncertainty around the direction of gold. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for important US inflation readings this week, which are most likely to shape future Fed actions and set the general tone in the wider markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price recently crossed above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart and broke through the important $3,358–$3,360 resistance area, indicating bullish momentum. Bullish oscillators on both hourly and daily horizons indicate that the metal may resume its uptrend, with the next target at around the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, near-term support is at about the $3,300 mark, followed by the $3,283–$3,282 range. A prolonged break below those levels may leave the metal vulnerable to a more significant pullback towards the July swing low around $3,248. FORECAST If safe-haven demand continues to build with rising trade tensions and global uncertainty, gold is set to retake higher ground. A sustained break above the $3,360 level could set the stage for a test of the psychological $3,400 level. Additional bullish pressure could be fueled by weak US inflation data or dovish Fed commentary, sending gold to fresh multi-week highs in the near term. Conversely, if future US economic indicators surprise on the upside and corroborate the argument against near-term rate cuts, the US Dollar can continue to appreciate further, putting downward pressure on gold prices. A fall below the critical $3,300 support level could initiate more selling pressure, sending the metal lower to the $3,283–$3,282 area. A clear cut-through of this level may expose gold to additional risk of decline, potentially stretching down to the $3,248–$3,247 support level.

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