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Gold Steadies Near $3,750 as Fed Rate-Cut Wagers, Geopolitical Concerns and Tariff Fears Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

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  • September 26, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) remains flat just below $3,750 as dovish Federal Reserve bets, revived geopolitical concerns, and Trump’s just-announced tariffs fuel safe-haven demand. Although positive US GDP, durable goods, and jobless claims reports show economic strength, they also leave Fed rate-cut pace uncertain, curbing aggressive bearish wagers. Markets now look for the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, for clearer indications on rate expectations, which may propel both the US Dollar and Gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • More than 85% chances of a 25 bps cut in October and 60% in December are priced in by markets, supporting Gold. • Trump’s latest tariffs on drugs, trucks, and cabinets are stoking worries of economic repercussions, spurring safe-haven demand. • Growing tensions across the world increase Gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against risk. • The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation will play a central role in dictating expectations of how quickly it cuts rates and guiding Gold’s short-term trend. Gold prices are flat at around $3,750 as investors weigh dovish Federal Reserve forecasts against robust US economic indicators and increasing geopolitical tensions. While markets are betting on probable rate cuts in October and December, positive GDP growth, durable goods orders, and weaker jobless claims signal resiliency in the US economy, leaving uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s easing tempo. Meanwhile, increased worries over Trump’s tariffs and international tensions are providing safe-haven support to the yellow metal. Investors now have their eyes set on the next US PCE Price Index, which will give them new indications on inflation and the Fed’s policy stance. Gold remains close to $3,750 as Fed rate-cut hopes and safe-haven demand due to tariff and geopolitical concerns counterbalance robust US economic data. Investors now look forward to the US PCE Price Index for more decisive indications of inflation and the Fed policy trajectory. • Gold trades flat close to $3,750, turning around an earlier fall on a supportive context. • Markets price in 85% probability of a Fed rate cut in October and more than 60% probability for December. • Robust US GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2 indicates economic vigor. • Durable Goods Orders rose 2.9% in August, beating estimates. • Trump imposed new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, heavy-duty trucks, and kitchen cabinets beginning October 1. • Unabating geopolitical tensions continue to fuel safe-haven demand for Gold. • Traders look to the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, for near-term policy signals. Gold is stable near $3,750 as investors balance dovish Federal Reserve hopes against better-than-expected US economic data. While markets are still hopeful of October and December rate cuts, the improved GDP revision, solid durable goods orders, and falling jobless claims have introduced uncertainty into the speed of policy easing. Even this, however, fails to prevent worries over the economic implications of Trump’s latest tariff initiative, together with ongoing geopolitical tensions, from continuing to underpin safe-haven demand for the precious metal. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView The Federal Reserve’s dovish tone is also keeping traders on their toes, policymakers indicating that they have to balance inflation risks with a slowing job market. Market players now anticipate the publication of the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is set to shape expectations of the timing and magnitude of future rate reductions. In the meantime, Gold is supported by a good macro backdrop as investors hunt for stability in a climate of economic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is bound by immediate support near the declining trendline at the $3,753–3,754 area, which has so far capped upside action this week. A break higher here might lead to a retest of the all-time high close at $3,790, with additional gains potentially touching $3,800 or even higher. On the negative side, firm support can be observed at $3,720–3,715, then the critical $3,700 psychological level; a decisive fall below may initiate technical selling and drive prices to the $3,650 and $3,610–$3,600 support levels. FORECAST If Gold is able to hold a break above the $3,753–3,754 resistance level, it would build on momentum towards re-testing the all-time high around $3,790. A convincing break above the $3,800 level would most likely serve as a new bullish trigger, setting the stage for a continuation of the overall uptrend. In this context, the buyers would target areas around $3,820–$3,850 driven by solid safe-haven buying and dovish expectations from the Fed. Conversely, inability to stay above the $3,720–3,715 support area might leave Gold at risk of further losses. A decisive break below the $3,700 psychological level could initiate technical selling, prolonging the correction to $3,650 in the first instance. If the bearish momentum continues to intensify, the next significant support will be around $3,610–$3,600, where potential buyers may try to re-enter.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rises to All-Time Highs Over $3,600 on Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Safe-Haven Buying Panic

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  • September 8, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to new all-time highs over $3,600 per ounce on safe-haven buying panic and growing speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Soft US labor market numbers, topped by a big miss in Nonfarm Payrolls and an increase in unemployment, confirmed expectations of a 25 bps cut, with some speculators even looking at a bigger move. A declining US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and international geopolitical and political doubts continued to fuel the rally, maintaining Gold’s bullish momentum as the markets now anticipate the next US PPI and CPI releases for confirmation of the Fed’s next policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets price in a full 25 bps September Fed cut, with mounting speculation of a bigger 50 bps move. • This week’s PPI and CPI releases will be important in building expectations for the policy inclination of the Fed. • Geopolitical tensions, Japanese and French political unrest, and trade risks across the globe continue to enhance the attraction of Gold. • Support at the moment is close to $3,550–$3,500, while targets on the upside extend towards $3,650 and $3,700. Gold extends record-breaking surge, trading above $3,630 as safe-haven buying and strong Federal Reserve rate cut expectations keep the trend in motion. Poor US labor market statistics, such as a big miss in Nonfarm Payrolls and increasing unemployment, added to the expectation of a September rate cut, and declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar provided additional support. Geopolitical concerns and political uncertainties in France and Japan have strengthened the safe-haven strength of Gold, with buyers firmly in command as the market looks at major US inflation data later this week to see if the Fed chooses to make a standard 25 bps cut or weigh a bigger move. Gold jumps to new record highs near $3,630 on rising safe-haven demand and bets on Fed interest rate cuts, fueled by weak US labor, a weaker Dollar, and declining Treasury yields. Traders look to near-term PPI and CPI reports for policy direction. • Gold rises further above $3,630, posting new record highs. • Markets price almost a sure 25 bps September rate reduction with only a 10% chance of 50 bps. • August NFP created only 22K jobs versus 75K anticipated; unemployment level rose to 4.3%. • PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday are more important for determining Fed’s move. • Benchmark 10-year yield falls closer to 4.05%, favoring Gold’s bullish side. • Political instability in Japan and France together with trade risks perk up safe-haven demand. • Firm support at $3,550–$3,500 with upside targets at $3,650 and $3,700. Gold has risen to new all-time highs above $3,600 per ounce as a mix of safe-haven buying and increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September pushed the yellow metal to the highest level ever. The rally took hold after softer-than-anticipated US jobs numbers revealed a mere 22,000 jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate reaching its worst level since 2021. This supported expectations of a rate cut, which markets now perceive as nearly certain, as policymakers turn their attention to stabilizing the labor market and boosting growth. A weaker US Dollar and falling Treasury yields have added to the metal’s attractiveness, making Gold one of the year’s best-performing assets. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Aside from economic releases, outside factors are also driving investor appetite for Gold. Central banks globally are still diversifying their reserves out of the US Dollar, and geopolitical risks and political instability in nations such as Japan and France are strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets. Trade policy risk in the United States provides investors with an additional note of caution, as they are increasingly looking toward Gold as a store of value. With inflation readings coming out later this week, attention now turns to how these points will influence the Federal Reserve’s next move, keeping Gold in the forefront as investors look for stability in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is solidly bullish as it trades way above its short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating high underlying momentum. The breach of the $3,500 consolidation range has laid the way to higher grounds, and the initial upside targets are at $3,650 and $3,700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought levels, which implies the threat of near-term pullbacks, but the trend continues as long as prices stay above the support zone of $3,550–$3,500. The Average Directional Index (ADX) greater than 30 also indicates the strength of the current rally, where the buyers are in command. FORECAST Gold’s momentum continues strong as investors price in nearly certain Fed rate cut in September, and growing speculation on a bigger 50 bps move if inflation data remains weak. Weak US Dollar, declining Treasury yields, and continued geopolitical tensions offer further support, with the bias still upward. If safe-haven demand continues, Gold may test new psychological levels at $3,650 and perhaps $3,700 in the coming term. Despite the dominant bullish trend, threats of a corrective pullback persist as technical measures signal overbought readings. Any better-than-anticipated US PPI or CPI reading this week could reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, triggering profit-taking in Gold. Supportively, $3,550 is instant support, and a deeper retracement to $3,500 is possible if market sentiment changes.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Climbs Above $3,300 as Trade Tensions and Tariff Deadlines Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 31, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) has rallied above the $3,300 level after it reached a one-month low, fueled by fresh safe-haven demand with heightened global trade tensions on the back of the August 1 tariff deadline. The rally follows as the US Dollar weakens from recent highs and markets respond to President Trump’s tough tariff moves on nations such as India and Brazil. At the same time, uncertainty over trade deals, especially with China, and dovish hints from the Federal Reserve have left market sentiment weak. In spite of the Fed not raising rates, declining bond yields and robust institutional appetite, as captured in World Gold Council data, have also aided gold’s rebound. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets wait for final US tariff announcements, which can greatly influence risk sentiment and safe-haven investment into gold. • Investors watch the Core PCE Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims for new clues on inflation and the policy direction of the Fed. • XAU/USD continues to be stuck between $3,250 and $3,450, and a break above $3,350 or break below $3,250 will most likely determine the next trend. • Ongoing institutional buying, particularly through gold ETFs and central bank reserves, will be important in maintaining bullish momentum. Gold is trading around $3,306 after recovering from a one-month low, buoyed by fresh safe-haven demand as global trade tensions increase ahead of the August 1 deadline for US tariffs. President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies against India, Brazil, and other countries have spooked markets, while a softer US dollar and falling Treasury yields are also helping gold’s rebound. Investors are now waiting closely for major US inflation data and Fed remarks for additional guidance. Gold continues to be stuck in a range from $3,250 to $3,450, even with recent volatility, with institutional buying and central bank demand still offering underlying support. Gold is recovered above $3,300 as safe-haven demand rises and trade tensions escalate. Markets are waiting for August 1 tariff announcements and important US inflation numbers for additional guidance. The metal is stable between $3,250 and $3,450. • Gold recovers to $3,306 after falling to a one-month low of $3,268 due to renewed safe-haven demand. • US deadline for tariffs approaches August 1, with markets anticipating last-minute announcements from President Trump. • Aggressive trade actions are a 25% tariff on Indian imports and higher duties on Brazilian products. • Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% with no evident timeline for possible cuts as pressures build regarding inflation. • Bond yields fall, reducing the pressure on gold even as the Fed is taking a hawkish stance. •  Gold demand increased 3% YoY as ETF inflows and central bank buying drove H1 2025 performance. •  XAU/USD is range-stuck in between $3,250 and $3,450 with no clear momentum for breaking out. Gold is gaining increasing popularity with investors as tensions regarding the trade and geopolitics rise internationally. The focus has remained with the impending August 1 tariff deadline, with President Trump to reveal last-minute actions against nations such as India, Brazil, and others. This action has increased uncertainty in the market and restored demand for safe-haven investments in gold. Furthermore, the US has completed trade agreements with a number of countries, including South Korea, Japan, and the European Union, but talks with China are ongoing, contributing to the general sense of uncertainty. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, macroeconomic numbers and central bank rhetoric are adding to the allure of gold. The Federal Reserve has recently left interest rates unchanged and signaled vigilance on future policy action, citing ongoing risks from inflation. Investors are also keeping a close eye on several imminent US economic releases, including the PCE Price Index and jobless claims, which are likely to affect sentiment. Gold’s function as an inflation and uncertainty hedge remains popular among retail and institutional investors alike, as evidenced by the robust flows into gold ETFs and ongoing central bank demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a clearly established sideways channel between $3,250 and $3,450, suggesting market indecision. The $3,250 level is solid support after having witnessed substantial buying interest in the past, and nearest resistance is at $3,350, which coincides with the 20-day Simple Moving Average as well as the middle Bollinger Band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, reflecting neutral to mildly bearish momentum, and the very low Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 11.28 indicates weak trend. Unless there’s a clear breakout above resistance or breakdown below support, gold is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. FORECAST If the trade tensions further intensify and the US Dollar drops on negative economic data, Gold may break above the resistance level of $3,350. A clear break above this region may set the stage for the higher zone around $3,450, and if the momentum picks up, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 may be possible. Increased gold ETF inflows, increasing geopolitical tensions, and dovish changes in Fed sentiment may also contribute to a sustained upside. On the flip side, if future US economic data makes the case for extended higher interest rates or trade-related threats dissipate through diplomatic agreements, Gold can lose safe-haven demand. Breaking below the $3,250 support will set off additional losses towards $3,150, which can serve as the next support cushion for buyers. Further, picking up Treasury yields and an uptick in the US Dollar will push gold prices down in the near future.

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