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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Taps $39.13 in Safe-Haven Demand and Tariff Deterrence

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  • July 15, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) persists above $38.00 following increased safe-haven demand under heightening geopolitical tensions and inflation fears. The price is set to test the 14-year high at $39.13, underpinned by investor caution after the warning of “very severe” tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Russia and NATO’s increased military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments suggesting possible inflation surges caused by tariff pressures have cooled rate-cut expectations. Persistent trade tensions in the world, new US tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, are still feeding through to market sentiment to support silver’s bull run. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver will likely test the $39.13 level once more, a figure hit on Monday, with ongoing safe-haven demand. • Trump’s threat of “very severe” tariffs against Russia and added NATO military support for Ukraine might instigate additional investor risk aversion. • Jerome Powell’s warning about inflation risks associated with tariffs, potentially delaying interest rate reductions, will affect silver, a non-yielding asset. • New tariffs from the U.S. on Mexican imports and pending talks with the EU might instill global uncertainty, adding to silver’s appeal. Silver (XAG/USD) remains firmly above the $38.00 level, buoyed by revived safe-haven buying as geopolitical and trade tensions rise. Markets are focused on events following a warning from former President Donald Trump to impose severe tariffs on Russia and an affirmation of heightened military support to Ukraine through NATO. These considerations, combined with sustained inflation fears underscored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are fueling a risk-averse mood in financial markets. With expectations for later interest rate cuts and increased global uncertainty, silver is well-placed to test the recent 14-year peak of $39.13. Silver maintains its position above $38.00 as safe-haven buying picks up on geopolitical tensions and inflation worries. Bullish players focus on the possibility of moving toward the 14-year peak of $39.13, aided by postponed Fed rate cut hopes and fresh tariff threats. •  Silver trading at $38.10, sitting above crucial support during safe-haven inflows. •   Price considers a possible retest of the 14-year high of $39.13 seen on Monday. •  Trump warns “very severe” tariffs against Russia, spurring geopolitical risk sentiment. •  NATO verifies stepped-up arms shipments to Ukraine, raising market wariness. •  Fed Chair Powell cautions about summer spikes in inflation resulting from tariffs, keeping rate cut hopes at bay. •   Trump condemns Fed policy, demanding interest rates below 1%. •   New U.S. tariffs on Mexican tomatoes illustrate escalating global trade uncertainty. The silver market continues in robust fundamental support as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Former President Donald Trump’s threat to slap “very severe” tariffs on Russia has increased global unease, particularly as the Ukraine war intensifies. His joint press release with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on billions of dollars’ worth of defense deals, such as the sale of Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, marks an increased commitment from Western partners and contributes to the overall geopolitical risk environment. These events have seen investors take refuge in precious metals such as silver. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from international tensions, domestic economic policy is shaping sentiment in the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that inflation could rise during the summer from tariff pressures have fueled fears of delayed monetary loosening. Trump’s further criticism of the Fed, calling for interest rates to be reduced to 1% or less, has added to doubts about central bank autonomy. Trade tensions continue unabated with the U.S. government announcing a 17% tariff on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico after talks collapsed. This mix of political, economic, and trade-driven events is serving to sustain investor demand for silver as a secure asset in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) is in bullish configuration as it consolidates above the crucial support level of $38.00. Strong buying demand is indicated in this area through price action, while momentum indicators such as the RSI remain in positive value, suggesting scope for further appreciation. If bulls manage to maintain momentum, silver may try once again to break out above the recent 14-year high of $39.13. A convincing close above this level might trigger the door to a move towards the psychological mark of $40.00, and any corrective slide is expected to find support somewhere in the vicinity of $37.50 or the 20-day moving average. FORECAST Silver is set to continue its short-term uptrend, buoyed by safe-haven demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions. If the bullish sentiment persists, the price may retest the new 14-year high of $39.13 and eventually break above it. A continued move above this resistance level can initiate fresh buying interest, pushing silver to the $40.00 psychological mark. Other driving factors include prolonged worldwide uncertainty, slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts, and a rising tide of trade disagreements. On the bearish side, silver could be pressured if geopolitical tensions decrease or the Federal Reserve catches markets off guard with a dovish monetary policy tilt. A breach below the $38.00 support level could lead to a correction, with the next major support coming at $37.50 and $36.80. Further, any rumors of de-escalation in trade tensions or a firming U.S. dollar can mute silver’s attractiveness, causing short-term corrections. Nevertheless, the overall bias is likely to continue being cautiously bullish unless these bearish triggers become more severe.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Rises to $33 on M&A Spur and Geopolitical Tension Amid Trade Hopes

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  • May 12, 2025
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Silver prices rose to almost $33.00 an ounce, backed by a key takeover in the mining industry and rising geopolitical tensions. Canadian company Pan American Silver’s $2.1 billion acquisition of MAG Silver Corp, which provides access to a valuable shareholding in Mexico’s high-grade Juanicipio mine, lifted investor mood. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions—such as India’s threat to Pakistan and Broken cease-fire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia—underpinned demand for safe havens. But the upside for silver could be capped as soothing concerns regarding U.S.-China trade tensions ease demand for defensive assets after both nations reported increased progress in talks. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Investors will keep an eye on events surrounding the $2.1 billion Pan American Silver–MAG Silver Corp transaction, especially its effect on production capacity and market concentration. •  Ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan and events in Ukraine may sustain safe-haven demand for silver if tensions escalate further. •  Any trade breakthrough or setback in negotiations between Washington and Beijing may influence investor sentiment and impact demand for risk-averse assets such as silver. •  Market participants will pay close attention to Fed commentary on labor market and inflation conditions, particularly any indication of interest rate cuts or rises, which have a direct impact on silver’s attractiveness. Silver prices are climbing higher, approaching the $33.00 level, on bullish sentiment after Pan American Silver’s $2.1 billion buyout of MAG Silver Corp—providing it with a strategic interest in Mexico’s high-grade Juanicipio mine. This M&A news has brought confidence to the market, while increasing geopolitical tensions, such as India’s warning to Pakistan and faltering Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, continue to underpin safe-haven demand. However, silver’s rally may face headwinds amid easing fears around U.S.-China trade relations, as both nations report constructive dialogue. Additionally, cautious signals from the Federal Reserve—highlighting persistent inflation and labor market concerns—may limit the metal’s upside as traders reassess the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. Silver prices have moved up to the vicinity of $33.00 on the back of Pan American Silver’s takeover of MAG Silver worth $2.1 billion and escalating geopolitical tensions. Yet, gains can be limited with growing optimism about U.S.-China trade talks and the Federal Reserve cautioning on rate reductions. •  Silver (XAG/USD) moved to close to $33.00, continuing to extend its rallies for a third consecutive session. •  Pan American Silver said it was paying $2.1 billion to acquire MAG Silver Corp, as investor mood picked up. •  The transaction provides Pan American with access to MAG’s interest in the Mexican Juanicipio Silver mine of 44%. •  Geopolitical risks, such as India’s threat to Pakistan and Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations, underpinned safe-haven demand. •  Safe-haven demand should ease as trade talks between U.S. and China appear to make progress. •  The Federal Reserve is being prudent, citing inflation and labor market risk and excluding preemptive rate cutting. •   Silver’s upside can even be hampered by a change in the overall global economic sentiment. Silver prices are being well supported by recent corporate and geopolitical news. News that Pan American Silver was going to spend $2.1 billion to buy out MAG Silver Corp increased investor confidence in the industry. This transaction not only increases Pan American’s portfolio but also provides it with access to MAG’s 44% interest in the high-grade Juanicipio mine in Mexico, which points to long-term production potential. Such strategic acquisitions tend to represent wider optimism within the industry and support silver’s position in the global commodities universe. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, constant geopolitical tensions remain to keep silver in the limelight. India’s warning to Pakistan over recent ceasefire violations, combined with the absence of progress in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, has raised market perceptions of global turmoil. These events reinforce silver’s historical position as a sanctuary for value in periods of uncertainty. Although broader economic debate—such as U.S.-China trade negotiations—could sway sentiment, silver remains supported by industrial applicability as well as its historical use in periods of war. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) continues with bullish strength as prices are rallying for the third straight session. The metal has been trading merely below the psychologically important level of $33.00, hinting at underlying buying pressure. The level around $31.50 acts as a critical level of support that witnessed past consolidation. A break above $33.00 can lead to more upside towards multi-year highs, or a failure to do so may lead to a short-term correction. Momentum oscillators such as RSI are still high but not yet overbought, suggesting potential for additional upside if positive sentiment continues. FORECAST Silver can continue to move higher if favorable fundamentals and sentiment continue. The recent M&A deal between Pan American Silver and MAG Silver has strengthened confidence in the industry, pointing to future growth and improved supply chains. Geopolitical tensions, especially in South Asia and Eastern Europe, continue to contribute to silver’s status as a safe-haven asset. Also, if inflationary pressures continue to be high and central banks become more cautious in cutting interest rates, silver may receive increased demand from investors as well as industrial consumers. But silver’s rally might encounter resistance in the short term on account of bettering global trade sentiment and macroeconomic conditions. Relaxing tensions between China and the U.S., and improving trade negotiation news, may diminish the pressure for defensive spending such as on silver. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s stern approach to inflation and labor market stability means aggressive monetary easing is not likely, which might curb silver’s potential. If hopes for global growth strengthen further, then investors may move to riskier assets, and thus, there could be a pullback in silver prices.

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