Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Persists Near $37.00 as Bearish Sentiment Remains Strong
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices dropped to around $66.35 during early Asian trading on Monday after the latest significant OPEC+ production boost of 547,000 barrels per day in September. The move has also fueled concerns over a supply glut, especially after consecutive monthly increases since April. In addition, soft U.S. employment figures have fueled economic slowdown fears, putting pressure on oil prices lower. In spite of some relief from the threat of secondary sanctions on Russian crude, attention then shifts to upcoming data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Breakdown below the rising channel and 200-period SMA on the H4 chart validates bearish pressure. • Attempts to recover may meet strong resistance at $37.35 and $37.60, both at the 200-SMA and channel support breakpoint. • Support is at $36.20; a break below can open the door to $36.00 and then on to $35.50–$35.00. • Technical indicators hint that rallies may be short-lived unless silver convincingly reclaims $37.60. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to be under bearish pressure as it flatlines around $37.00, unable to capitalize on Friday’s modest recovery. The recent breakdown of the white metal below a two-month-old rising channel and 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart has reinforced the bearish bias. Even in the wake of softer US job numbers last week, the waning USD weakness is contributing to the bearish bias. Technical charts on both daily and intraday time frames indicate limited upside, with any bounce expected to run into selling pressure around the $37.35–$37.60 range. Unless the bulls recover this important resistance level, silver is still exposed to more losses down to $36.20, $36.00, and even the $35.00 psychological level. Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $37.00, unable to follow through on Friday’s bounce with a renewed USD rally. Technicals incline towards a bearish bias, with resistance between $37.35–$37.60 in all likelihood to limit gains. A fall below $36.20 has the potential to further hasten the decline to $35.00. • Silver trades flat at $37.00 with declining bullish momentum and fresh USD strength. • Price hovers near four-week low, indicating ongoing bearishness. • Break below the rising channel and 200-period SMA on H4 chart reaffirms bearish technical pattern. • Downside bias is supported by negative oscillators on 4-hour and daily charts. • Initial resistance is at $37.35, followed by key hurdle near $37.60. • Support is initially found at $36.20, with additional downward risks towards $36.00, $35.50, and $35.00. • Attempts to recover are likely short-lived unless silver convincingly breaks back above $37.60. Silver (XAG/USD) starts the week on a guarded tone, sitting steady at the $37.00 level. Market sentiment is low as market participants process last week’s U.S. employment data, which initially burdened the U.S. Dollar but not enough to impart sustainable push for precious metals. Given the overall macroeconomic situation remaining in doubt, investors seem unwilling to take on aggressive bets in silver. Lack of new catalysts is joining the sideways action, with market players waiting for clearer signs before placing directional wagers. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Behind the scenes, broader themes of global economic wellbeing, inflation direction, and central bank policy still shape the silver market. With industrial and investment demand as a commodity, silver is still sensitive to changes in global risk appetite and demand direction. Short-term sparks from geopolitical tensions and economic releases may generate excitement, but medium-term performance will probably rest on how these wider themes continue to play out in the weeks ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) broke a crucial rising channel support that has remained intact for almost two months, indicating a change in momentum to the downside. Such a breakdown also comes along with a fall below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, further supporting the bearish view. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts are also declining, indicating ongoing selling interest. Any attempts at rebounding are bound to be met with resistance at the $37.35 mark, with an even more solid barrier at $37.60—both of which must be overcome in order to dissuade the bearish tilt and set the stage for a possible short-covering rally. FORECAST If Silver (XAG/USD) can somehow stay above the $37.00 mark and gain some bullish traction, the initial hurdle is the $37.35 zone, denoted by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A persistent break above this level would produce a modest rebound, advancing prices to the $37.60 area, the former channel support. A breakout above this key resistance would clear the way for a short-covering advance to $38.00, and then to the $38.30–$38.35 zone. Conversely, inability to hold above $37.00 will draw in fresh selling interest. A clean fall below the immediate support level of $36.20 would reemphasize the bearish tilt and might take silver to the psychological $36.00 mark. Further weakness beyond this level could spur the fall, leaving the metal vulnerable to further declines to the $35.50 area, with the $35.00 level serving as an important downside objective in the near term.
