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USD/CHF Remains Near 0.7950 as Swiss Franc Strengthens with Rate Pause Speculation and Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 10, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair remains steady near 0.7950 in Thursday’s European session after bouncing back from two consecutive losses. Further improvement, however, seems to be restricted with the Swiss Franc strengthening on dwindling hopes for more rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The latest increase in Switzerland’s CPI returned inflation into the SNB’s 0–2% target band, allowing analysts to forecast a rate hold until 2026. In the meantime, safe-haven appetite for the CHF is increasing as well, driven by increasing global trade tensions following former President Trump’s suggested tariffs. On the other hand, the US Dollar is pressured by dovish Federal Reserve cues and intensifying economic uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets generally foresee the Swiss National Bank maintaining interest rates unchanged at 0% in September, with no additional cuts expected as inflation comes back into play. • Escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly in the wake of Trump’s tariff suggestions, are driving demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. • Policy guidance from the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, as reflected in the latest FOMC Minutes, weighing on the US Dollar. • US Initial Jobless Claims will be watched closely by traders for additional cues on the status of the labor market and possible Fed responses. USD/CHF pair trades around 0.7950, holding onto recent gains but resisting pressures in the face of rising demand for the Swiss Franc. The currency enjoys support through renewed optimism over Switzerland’s inflation outlook as June’s CPI numbers reversed an earlier drop and returned inflation into the SNB’s target zone. Consequently, the Swiss National Bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0%, lowering the odds of additional rate reductions. In contrast, overall risk sentiment supports safe-haven flows into the Franc, especially given heightened geopolitical threats and renewed tariff threats from former President Trump that fuel worries over global growth. The US Dollar, however, is pressured by uncertainty as to what the next move will be from the Fed, as captured in the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes. USD/CHF stays firm at around 0.7950 but has limited upside due to the strengthening Swiss Franc. Rebounding Swiss inflation and safe-haven demand underpin the CHF, while uncertainty from Fed policy burdens the US Dollar. • USD/CHF is around 0.7950, rebounding from recent falls but showing little upside enthusiasm. • Swiss CPI increased 0.1% YoY in June, reversing last month’s fall and remaining within the SNB’s 0–2% target range. • SNB set to maintain rates at 0% in September with no additional cuts anticipated until 2026. • CHF safe-haven demand grows as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue. • Trump imposes fresh tariffs, 50% on Brazil and 30% on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka. • FOMC Minutes indicate uncertainty regarding the Fed’s policy direction and inflation expectations. • US Dollar Index (DXY) declines, trading at around 97.30, weighed down by Fed uncertainty and increasing trade risks. The USD/CHF currency pair is making waves as global economic and geopolitical considerations influence market sentiment. The Swiss Franc is experiencing renewed strength as a result of better local inflation numbers, with the June CPI increasing 0.1% year-on-year. The move has pushed inflation back into the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target band, leading analysts to believe that the monetary policy adjustments will be on hold for an extended period. Consequently, hopes of additional interest rate cuts have eased, further boosting confidence in the Swiss economy and currency. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, overall uncertainty keeps investor appetite for traditional safe-havens such as the Swiss Franc strong. Newly proposed tariffs by former President Donald Trump on some countries have revived concerns of a worldwide trade deceleration. This has further weighed on the US Dollar, particularly with the policy stance of the Federal Reserve still uncertain. The most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes show disagreement among policymakers over inflation concerns and upcoming rate decisions, which keeps the market wary of the USD’s short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating around the 0.7950 mark following a brief recovery from fresh lows. The pair has key resistance around the 0.7980–0.8000 mark, where selling can come in if the upward momentum loses its strength. Support comes in at initial levels around the 0.7900 area, followed by more robust support near 0.7870. Momentum indicators such as RSI indicate neutral directions, and range-bound movement in the near term unless there is a clear breakout or breakdown. FORECAST Should bullish sentiment resume, USD/CHF may try to break above the 0.7980–0.8000 resistance area. A breakout above this level may set the stage for a retest of the 0.8050 level, particularly if future US economic data surprises higher or if risk sentiment swings towards the US Dollar. Any comments from Fed officials that could be seen as hawkish or better-than-expected labor market data could also feed the upside. On the negative side, a breakdown below 0.7950 may result in a further downfall towards the 0.7900 psychological level. A break below this support may invoke some more selling, which may drive the pair down to 0.7870 or even 0.7830. Deteriorating US data, rising safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, or rising geopolitical tensions may drive the bearish pressure towards the pair.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Remains Steady Around 0.8850 as Dollar Recovers and Swiss Franc Drops on Better Risk Mood

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  • March 24, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair remains steady around the 0.8850 level, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar on the back of increasing Treasury yields and a dovish Federal Reserve policy. In spite of ongoing fears of a slowdown in the US economy, the greenback is showing resilience in anticipation of the important S&P Global PMI release. At the same time, the Swiss Franc is under pressure downwards with improving global risk appetite and recent policy relaxation by the Swiss National Bank, which cut its key interest rate to 0.25%. Geopolitical events and changing trade policies also affect market forces, keeping investors’ eyes on the horizon for forthcoming economic indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders closely observe the initial US PMI figures for March, which would provide new information on the health of the US economy and have an impact on the direction of the USD. • Increasing yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds are driving the Dollar’s rebound — increased movements in yields will dictate short-term USD/CHF momentum. • Since the SNB rate cut to 0.25%, markets are closely looking at signs or signals regarding future direction of monetary policy and inflation in Switzerland. • Relief on easing geopolitical tensions and changes to US trade policy are lowering demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc — ongoing change in risk appetite could lead to further CHF weakness. The release of the US S&P Global PMI data for March later today will be key in determining the health of the US economy and influencing market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. On top of this, increasing US Treasury yields remain supportive of the US Dollar, with any further movement set to affect the pair. Conversely, the recent 0.25% rate cut by the Swiss National Bank has put pressure on the Swiss Franc, with markets anticipating any policy guidance. In the meanwhile, a better global risk environment and deviously softening geopolitical tensions are suppressing demand for defensive currencies such as the CHF, possibly setting the stage for further USD/CHF gains. Traders look to the US S&P Global PMI, which may give new direction to USD/CHF. Higher US Treasury yields continue to underpin the Dollar, while the Swiss Franc is pressured after the SNB rate cut and better global risk appetite. • USD/CHF is trading around 0.8850, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. • US Dollar strengthens as market mood improves in spite of fears of an impending economic slowdown. • US S&P Global PMI for March is eagerly awaited and could shape further USD action. • Fed continues to have a hawkish stance, with Chair Powell reiterating strong labor markets and ongoing inflation threats. • Swiss Franc loses ground as risk appetite increases, diminishing demand for traditional safe-haven currencies. • Swiss National Bank lowered rates to 0.25%, a new low since September 2022, citing low inflation. • Geopolitical tensions reduce, and changing US trade policies further dampen CHF strength. The USD/CHF currency pair remains influenced by overall economic and geopolitical trends. The US Dollar remains robust as market optimism increases based on encouraging Federal Reserve signals and growing optimism over the US economy. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a solid labor market and consistent movement toward inflation goals, which has bolstered investor confidence. Meanwhile, the next US economic data, especially the S&P Global PMI, will provide additional information on economic conditions and influence market expectations. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the Swiss Franc is under pressure as a result of better global risk appetite and recent policy moves by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB interest rate cut indicates its attempt to boost domestic economic activity in the face of low inflation. Also, softening geopolitical tensions and changing trade strategies are decreasing the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Franc. As the world economic outlook improves, the demand for currencies such as the USD can be expected to increase further, influencing the trend of USD/CHF in the near future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF remains bullish-biased as the pair consolidates above important support levels, reflecting consistent buying interest. The current upward momentum indicates that buyers are still in charge, with the pair holding firm around the 0.8850 region. If the price is able to hold above this support, then it could potentially set the stage for further bullish movement in the near future. Traders would need to look out for levels of resistance coming up ahead as well as observe any indication of reversal or consolidation that would change short-term sentiment in the markets. FORECAST  USD/CHF may witness additional gains, particularly if future US economic releases like the PMI reports are stronger than anticipated. Higher US Treasury yields and persistent Federal Reserve hawkishness might also continue to buoy the US Dollar in the near future. Increased investor optimism and lower Swiss Franc safe-haven demand might also contribute to the upward pressure, moving the pair towards higher resistance levels in the near future. On the other hand, if any disappointing economic data from the US or rising fears of any slowdown are indicated, the Dollar can be pushed down and force a pullback in USD/CHF. Moreover, in case the overall risk sentiment falters in the face of some unforeseen geopolitical events, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc can increase. A more robust CHF, in conjunction with uncertainty in the markets or a dovish change in Fed expectations, might result in a short-term correction or downward pressure on the pair.

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