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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish Outlook Prevails Below 1.2450 Amid Key Economic Data Releases

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  • January 30, 2025
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GBP/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, trading modestly higher near 1.2445 in early European hours on Thursday. Despite a slight decline in the US Dollar offering temporary support, the pair holds below the key 100-day EMA, maintaining a negative outlook. The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, suggesting potential consolidation. Key support levels lie at 1.2400-1.2390, with further downside targets at 1.2307 and 1.2160. On the upside, resistance is at 1.2570, followed by 1.2645 and 1.2778. Traders are now focusing on the US Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales to be released soon for further direction in markets . KEY LOOKOUTS • A key point below the 100-day EMA continues to maintain downside pressure below this barrier down to 1.2400 and lower 1.2307 and then 1.2160 support. • There is strong major resistance at 1.2570 with potential higher resistance to be seen within 1.2645 near the 100-day EMA and 1.2778 at the last December 10 high. • US Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales could determine the course of short term market action today for GBP/USD. • The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, indicating possible sideways movement before a decisive breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions. The GBP/USD pair continues to trade under bearish pressure, struggling below the 100-day EMA and maintaining a downside bias as long as it remains under 1.2450. Key support levels to watch include the 1.2400-1.2390 region, with further declines potentially extending to 1.2307 and 1.2160 if selling pressure persists. On the positive side, resistance at 1.2570 is the first major barrier, followed by 1.2645 and 1.2778. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales, which could provide fresh directional cues. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI remains near the midline, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a decisive move in either direction. GBP/USD stays bearish below 1.2450, and it finds strong support at 1.2400-1.2390 with a possible slide to 1.2307. It will find resistance at 1.2570 to limit upside potential. The Q4 GDP in the US is going to determine the market’s direction. • As long as it is below the 100-day EMA, GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure. • The first support zone is at 1.2400-1.2390, with further downside risks targeting 1.2307 and 1.2160 if selling momentum increases. • The initial resistance is at 1.2570, followed by stronger hurdles at 1.2645 (100-day EMA) and 1.2778 (December 10 high). • Traders are watching Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales reports, which could impact market sentiment and price direction. • The RSI indicator suggests possible consolidation before a decisive breakout, with no strong momentum in either direction for now. • A mild decline in the US Dollar has helped GBP/USD post modest gains, but the overall trend remains bearish. • If GBP/USD drops below 1.2400, it may trigger further selling pressure, potentially dragging the pair toward 1.2307 and 1.2160. The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend as long as it trades below the 100-day EMA, keeping downside risks in play. The pair currently hovers around 1.2445 in early European trading hours and has struggled to gain any momentum despite a mild decline in the US Dollar. The key support zone lies at 1.2400-1.2390, and a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, driving prices toward 1.2307 and possibly 1.2160. On the flip side, resistance at 1.2570 remains a crucial barrier, with additional hurdles at 1.2645 and 1.2778, which could cap any bullish attempts. The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, suggesting a phase of consolidation before the next major move. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming US Q4 GDP data, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales reports, which could influence GBP/USD price action. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading might boost the US Dollar, reinforcing the bearish outlook for GBP/USD. However, if the data disappoints, the pair could see a temporary recovery, challenging key resistance levels. Traders should also be on the lookout for global risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations since they could enhance volatility in the pair. On balance, these factors present a bearish view in the short run, but only a breakout above primary resistance areas will negate a bearish outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD stays in a bearish trend as long as it stays below the 100-day EMA, which serves as a significant resistance level at the present time. The tandem has support right off the bat at 1.2400-1.2390, coalescing into the psychological level and the Jan 29 low. A firm breakout under this area could trigger further drops to 1.2307 and 1.2160. To the upside, resistance stands at 1.2570, with next target at the 100-day EMA at 1.2645 and the Dec 10 high at 1.2778. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the midline, indicating a potential consolidation phase before a breakout. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands suggest that the pair is trading near the lower boundary, signaling that any break below key support levels could accelerate bearish momentum. FORECAST Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, GBP/USD has key resistance levels that could limit downside movements and trigger a recovery. The first upside barrier is at 1.2570, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. In case the pair breaks above this level, the next resistance would be at 1.2645, the 100-day EMA, which has historically been a strong resistance zone. A break above this level could be sustained and fuel bullish momentum toward 1.2778, the highest level reached on December 10. If it is much weaker than expected in terms of either GDP growth or the labor market in the United States, this could weaken the US Dollar further to support a higher move in GBP/USD. The bearish outlook remains dominant as long as GBP/USD trades below the key 100-day EMA, with immediate support at the 1.2400-1.2390 region. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZDUSD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Stagnating Below 0.5900

NZDUSD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Stagnating Below 0.5900 The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday faces mounting downward pressure as it breaks its three-day winning streak and traded to around the 0.5890 level in the European session Wednesday. The NZD/USD pair sits in a descending channel, with further bearish bias looking possible unless strong reversal is seen. Pair shows weakness, especially below key 0.5900, and short-term momentum remains bearish. Bearish Momentum: NZD/USD in a Descending Channel From the daily NZD/USD chart, a bearish outlook seems to be of concern for the bullish traders because the chart seems to be moving in a downward trend within a well-defined descending channel. A bearish sentiment usually prevails when the market is entering a kind of downtrend, as the pair cannot keep its course upwards but falls backwards. In the case of NZD/USD, this kind of pattern grows clearer because, day by day, it remains trading below both nine-day and 14-day EMAs. Currently, the nine-day EMA sits below the 14-day EMA, which is an important short-term indicator of price momentum and displays persistent weakness in the market. This means that bearish control is most likely to continue until a strong catalyst forces a directional shift in sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) – the measure of the speed and change of price movements – is also sitting below the neutral 50 level. When the RSI is constantly under 50, it usually means the market tends to have a bearish look, which commensurate with current trends for NZD/USD. Resistance Levels: Immediate Hurdles for NZD/USD Resistance levels for NZD/USD, however, are found in the immediate upside. The first level of key resistance is currently sitting at 0.5907, at the nine-day EMA. This represents the zone that sellers will be keenly watching for as a potential turning point. A break back above the nine-day EMA would be a marked shift in sentiment, though as of now, the pair sits below this resistance, which continues to support the bearish view. Above the nine-day EMA, the next level of resistance is at the 14-day EMA, which stands at 0.5926. This is a more important resistance level since it coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel. From the breakout above the 14-day EMA and the upper boundary of the channel, the bearish momentum could be weakening, allowing the pair to further advance toward higher levels, even reaching the psychological level 0.6000. Given the current bearish momentum, however, such a breakout seems less likely over the short run unless something fundamental in market sentiment were to shift. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles Levels of Support : 0.5850 and the Lower Boundary of the Channel On the downside, the NZD/USD pair is facing potential support around the 0.5850 level, which represents a psychological level for the pair. If the price continues to slide lower, this support zone will be critical in determining whether the bearish trend will extend further. If the price breaks below 0.5850, the next level of support is likely to be the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is found around the 0.5930 region. The zone is of high importance situated around 0.5850 as it is a throwback support zone – a term used to describe a price zone where the market had previously shown support or resistance. If the NZD/USD pair can remain above the 0.5850 zone, it might be a good place for a reversal or at least a consolidation. On the other hand, if the price breaks decisively below that level, it would endorse the bearish view and push the pair down even further. Downside Risk: Testing the Two-Year Low at 0.5772 If the NZD/USD fails to maintain strength above 0.5850 and breaks below the lower boundary of its falling channel, critical support will be found at the two-year low at 0.5772. It reached the level last in November 2023, and this will be a signal for another decline in the value of the Kiwi versus the US Dollar, should the pair continue to the mentioned level. Such a move towards this level would squeeze the bearish sentiment and thus attract more selling pressure with further declines. Traders will be keenly watching how the price reacts to the lower boundary of the channel and the 0.5850 support. A break below these levels could potentially accelerate the decline and bring the pair closer to the two-year low of 0.5772. On the other hand, a failure to break below these levels might indicate a temporary consolidation, but the overall market sentiment would remain cautious and bearish. What Could Reverse the Bearish Trend? While the current outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, it’s essential to consider potential catalysts that could reverse the trend. For instance, if there were a significant shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets or a sudden change in global economic conditions, it could provide support for the New Zealand Dollar. Positive economic data from New Zealand or a change in the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance could also impact the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, if the pair breaks above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, it could signal that the bears are losing control, allowing for a move higher. This scenario however, looks unlikely to come to pass without a significant fundamental trigger, as the current market sentiment is on further weakness for the Kiwi. What to Expect for NZD/USD Short-term view: The outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, but the price was unable to stay above the key level of 0.5900. The pattern of the descending channel suggests further downside, with the support areas around 0.5850 and the lower boundary of the channel being areas to watch. A break below these levels would further solidify a strong bearish case, with a view toward reaching the two-year low of 0.5772. On the positive side, two important barriers that one needs to watch are resistance levels at the nine-day EMA (0.5907) and at the

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