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USD/CHF Remains Near 0.7950 as Swiss Franc Strengthens with Rate Pause Speculation and Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 10, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair remains steady near 0.7950 in Thursday’s European session after bouncing back from two consecutive losses. Further improvement, however, seems to be restricted with the Swiss Franc strengthening on dwindling hopes for more rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The latest increase in Switzerland’s CPI returned inflation into the SNB’s 0–2% target band, allowing analysts to forecast a rate hold until 2026. In the meantime, safe-haven appetite for the CHF is increasing as well, driven by increasing global trade tensions following former President Trump’s suggested tariffs. On the other hand, the US Dollar is pressured by dovish Federal Reserve cues and intensifying economic uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets generally foresee the Swiss National Bank maintaining interest rates unchanged at 0% in September, with no additional cuts expected as inflation comes back into play. • Escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly in the wake of Trump’s tariff suggestions, are driving demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. • Policy guidance from the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, as reflected in the latest FOMC Minutes, weighing on the US Dollar. • US Initial Jobless Claims will be watched closely by traders for additional cues on the status of the labor market and possible Fed responses. USD/CHF pair trades around 0.7950, holding onto recent gains but resisting pressures in the face of rising demand for the Swiss Franc. The currency enjoys support through renewed optimism over Switzerland’s inflation outlook as June’s CPI numbers reversed an earlier drop and returned inflation into the SNB’s target zone. Consequently, the Swiss National Bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0%, lowering the odds of additional rate reductions. In contrast, overall risk sentiment supports safe-haven flows into the Franc, especially given heightened geopolitical threats and renewed tariff threats from former President Trump that fuel worries over global growth. The US Dollar, however, is pressured by uncertainty as to what the next move will be from the Fed, as captured in the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes. USD/CHF stays firm at around 0.7950 but has limited upside due to the strengthening Swiss Franc. Rebounding Swiss inflation and safe-haven demand underpin the CHF, while uncertainty from Fed policy burdens the US Dollar. • USD/CHF is around 0.7950, rebounding from recent falls but showing little upside enthusiasm. • Swiss CPI increased 0.1% YoY in June, reversing last month’s fall and remaining within the SNB’s 0–2% target range. • SNB set to maintain rates at 0% in September with no additional cuts anticipated until 2026. • CHF safe-haven demand grows as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue. • Trump imposes fresh tariffs, 50% on Brazil and 30% on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka. • FOMC Minutes indicate uncertainty regarding the Fed’s policy direction and inflation expectations. • US Dollar Index (DXY) declines, trading at around 97.30, weighed down by Fed uncertainty and increasing trade risks. The USD/CHF currency pair is making waves as global economic and geopolitical considerations influence market sentiment. The Swiss Franc is experiencing renewed strength as a result of better local inflation numbers, with the June CPI increasing 0.1% year-on-year. The move has pushed inflation back into the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target band, leading analysts to believe that the monetary policy adjustments will be on hold for an extended period. Consequently, hopes of additional interest rate cuts have eased, further boosting confidence in the Swiss economy and currency. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, overall uncertainty keeps investor appetite for traditional safe-havens such as the Swiss Franc strong. Newly proposed tariffs by former President Donald Trump on some countries have revived concerns of a worldwide trade deceleration. This has further weighed on the US Dollar, particularly with the policy stance of the Federal Reserve still uncertain. The most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes show disagreement among policymakers over inflation concerns and upcoming rate decisions, which keeps the market wary of the USD’s short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating around the 0.7950 mark following a brief recovery from fresh lows. The pair has key resistance around the 0.7980–0.8000 mark, where selling can come in if the upward momentum loses its strength. Support comes in at initial levels around the 0.7900 area, followed by more robust support near 0.7870. Momentum indicators such as RSI indicate neutral directions, and range-bound movement in the near term unless there is a clear breakout or breakdown. FORECAST Should bullish sentiment resume, USD/CHF may try to break above the 0.7980–0.8000 resistance area. A breakout above this level may set the stage for a retest of the 0.8050 level, particularly if future US economic data surprises higher or if risk sentiment swings towards the US Dollar. Any comments from Fed officials that could be seen as hawkish or better-than-expected labor market data could also feed the upside. On the negative side, a breakdown below 0.7950 may result in a further downfall towards the 0.7900 psychological level. A break below this support may invoke some more selling, which may drive the pair down to 0.7870 or even 0.7830. Deteriorating US data, rising safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, or rising geopolitical tensions may drive the bearish pressure towards the pair.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthened as Chronic Inflation Threats and Global Tariff Disputes Persist

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  • July 9, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rise against the US Dollar (USD), fueled by chronic inflation threats highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and escalating global trade tensions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the ongoing influence of high labor costs and poor productivity on inflation, which is a signal of possible rate-cut delays. In the meantime, global sentiment is still risk-averse in the face of escalating US tariffs by President Trump, which involve steep tariffs on copper, drugs, and products of several countries. The AUD remains strong despite a stable US Dollar, riding on its strong trade relations with China and hope for China’s reforms. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is currently on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after it left rates unchanged at 3.85% despite speculation of a reduction. Risks to inflation may delay the easing. • The market is paying close attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes in anticipation of direction on the US Fed’s interest rate path and its implication for movement of USD. • US President Trump’s suggested 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, as well as sweeping levies against several nations, are contributing to worldwide trade tensions and affecting risk sentiment. • China’s PPI and CPI readings and widening offshore access to Chinese bond markets could have a major impact on AUD trends given Australia’s penetration of China economically. Australian Dollar is holding strong against the US Dollar, underpinned by ongoing inflation fears and guarded optimism over China’s economy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments on ongoing inflation on the back of higher labor costs and poor productivity have pushed back expectations of a near-future rate cut, despite market expectations of easing in August. While, in the meantime, growing trade tensions sparked by US President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy have unsettled global markets, AUD still stands to gain from its intimate trade correlation with China, particularly with China’s determination to open up its capital markets as well as rev up economic growth. Australian Dollar remains strong in the face of ongoing inflation risks highlighted by the RBA and rising global trade tensions. High fundamentals with China and hopes for economic reforms keep AUD fundamentals strong. Markets now look to FOMC Minutes for further guidance. • AUD/USD rallies for a second consecutive session, buoyed by Australian inflation concerns. •  RBA maintains interest rates at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a 25 bps reduction, due to persisting inflation risks. •  Governor Michele Bullock says that high labor costs and poor productivity may sustain inflation at elevated levels. •  China’s CPI increases by 0.1% YoY, some good news for Australia’s export-oriented economy. •  Trump imposes new tariffs, including a 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, escalating global trade tensions. • US Dollar holds firm, with attention turning to the next FOMC Minutes for guidance on policy. • Technicals are bullish, with AUD/USD eyeing resistance around 0.6535 and maybe even 0.6590. The Australian Dollar is strengthening after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hints at ongoing inflation threats through high unit labor costs and reducing productivity. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed that the full effects of past interest rate reductions are yet to be realized, and thereby advised caution before making any further monetary policy moves. Though market players and key Australian banks had been expecting a rate cut, the central bank’s resolve to remain tight shows it is serious about fighting inflation. This move mirrors the RBA’s focus on long-term price stability and its resolve to watch more data before policy changes. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In international news, increased trade tensions initiated by US President Donald Trump’s confrontational tariff policy are driving economic uncertainty. New taxes on a broad array of imports—ranging from copper and pharmaceuticals to imports from several countries—are likely to remake world supply chains and affect trade flows. Under these circumstances, Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China is even more important, particularly as China introduces reforms to increase investment access and compensate for export interruption. These economic and geopolitical changes are molding currency markets, with the Australian Dollar remaining robust in the midst of the global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a bullish inclination while trading around the 0.6530 level and holding tight in an upward sloping channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the midpoint 50, signaling fair bullish momentum. Though, the pair is now testing resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535. A clean break above this point could open the door towards the recent peak of 0.6590 and even beyond to higher levels around the top of the channel at 0.6680. Support on the downside is around 0.6510, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6475. FORECAST If the Australian Dollar can take out and hold above the short-term resistance level at 0.6535 (nine-day EMA), it would gain more bullish momentum. A successful breach above this level may take the AUD/USD pair towards the recent high of 0.6590, and potentially challenge the upper edge of the rising channel around 0.6680. Positive news from China’s economic sector or additional hawkish indications from the RBA would further push the Aussie Dollar higher. Conversely, a failure to clear 0.6535 could see a short-term pullback. The first support is at the lower border of the ascending channel at 0.6510, then the 50-day EMA at 0.6475. A firm break below these could turn sentiment bearish, bringing the pair towards the two-month low of 0.6372. Increased tensions in global trade or a slightly firmer-than-expected US Dollar due to the FOMC Minutes could hasten this decline.

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Currencies

USD/CAD jumps to six-day high: Impact of Trump’s tariffs and BoC rate cuts on currency pair

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  • February 3, 2025
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The USD/CAD has surged to almost 1.4700 after US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, which is due to take effect on Tuesday. The move has been made while increasing tariffs generally, including the 25% duty on Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese exports, thus increasing tensions in trade. This, in conjunction with the rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, has driven strength in the pair. The rate cut by the Bank of Canada recently and plans for asset purchases contrast with the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged, boosting the USD even further. Meanwhile, as retaliation in this trade war from Canada, Mexico, and China looms over, the USD/CAD pair keeps going up for its sixth consecutive trading session. KEY LOOKOUTS • Locking in a 25% tariff on imports from Canada will increase trade tensions and the exchange rate volatility. • The interest rate differential between the Fed and BoC has been the best driver of the current USD/CAD price action, with the Fed holding on to its steady rates. • Canada, Mexico, and China have vowed to retaliate against the US tariffs, which could create broader market uncertainty and influence USD/CAD. • A rising DXY, reflecting USD strength against major currencies, will continue to support the upward momentum of USD/CAD. The USD/CAD pair continues to gain momentum, recently reaching near 1.4700, driven by a combination of factors. The key catalyst has been US President Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, which is set to take effect on Tuesday, contributing to escalating trade tensions. In addition, the ongoing interest rate divergence between the US Federal Reserve, which has kept rates steady, and the Bank of Canada, which recently cut its rate, is supporting the strength of the USD. This, coupled with retaliation threats from Canada, Mexico, and China, and a rising US Dollar Index, is likely to have the USD/CAD pair continuing its upward trend, creating volatility in the forex market. The USD/CAD pair has rallied to around 1.4700 on the back of Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian imports and interest rate differentials between the Fed and BoC. Threats of trade retaliation and a rising US Dollar Index add further strength to the pair. • The USD/CAD pair has gained more than 1% and rallied to near 1.4700, as recent tariff announcements have driven the pair. • The United States has applied a 25% tariff to Canadian imports effective on Tuesday and further escalates the trade tension. • Energy exports from Canada will attract a 10% tariff, thus putting pressure on the CAD. • The United States has also applied 25% tariffs to Mexican goods and 10% to Chinese exports, thus creating global trade uncertainty. • The interest rate gap between the Fed (steady rates) and the BoC (rate cut to 3%) boosts USD strength. • Canada, Mexico, and China have promised retaliation, which could further influence USD/CAD movements. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise, supporting the overall strength of the USD against other currencies. Trade tensions along with interest rate differentials have really driven this pair upwards; trading near 1.4700. The most significant catalyst is the 25% tariff put upon Canadian imports by the U.S. It comes into play this Tuesday and is in response to other tariffs levied upon Mexican goods and Chinese exports, deepening trade tensions. Canadian exports of energy will also suffer from the effect of a 10% tariff, adding further pressure on the CAD. Rising trade tensions have raised the level of concern and further intensified this weakening of the CAD and support for USD strength. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The other main driver behind the recent USD/CAD strength has been the divergence of interest rates in the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. Although the Fed is steady, the BoC lowered its key rate 25 basis points to 3% just last week. Therefore, interest-rate differential works as a more bullish factor, where the return of the USD is higher compared to the CAD. More to this, a US Dollar Index, DXY, which is also on an uptrend enhances the strength of the USD versus the other strong currencies, meaning more momentum on the USD/CAD pair, which is to experience retaliatory moves from Canada, Mexico, and China, therefore, this pair is still on the path to volatility. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The latest run of the USD/CAD pair to 1.4700 is one huge breakout, because the pair remains above its significant resistance points. This is further complemented by a series of higher highs and higher lows, giving a strong sign of the bull. A hovering RSI overbought territory sees a potential short-term reversal, though the trend still remains intact. The moving averages, mainly the 50-day and 200-day average, are trending bullishly by crossing over, showing strength in the current uptrend. So long as the pair maintains above the support levels around 1.4600, the least resistance path is northward toward 1.4800, but external factors such as trade developments or changes in markets sentiment can quickly lead to reversal even at unexpected times. FORECAST The USD/CAD pair is likely to continue rising as the interest rate divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada continues. While the Fed has been steady, the BoC has recently taken a dovish approach with rate cuts, making the USD more attractive than the CAD. Furthermore, continuing US tariffs on Canadian goods in addition to ongoing trade tensions, and a hardening US Dollar Index (DXY), would likely push the pair to fresh highs. However, if USD/CAD sustains above 1.4600 support, the next serious resistance could come around 1.4800, with room for further runs if geopolitical tensions escalate. On the flip side, if the trade tensions were to ease significantly or if the monetary policy unexpectedly changed, it could pull the USD/CAD back. Since the RSI is in an overbought condition, this could be an opportunity for short-term

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD drops as global growth concerns along with Trump’s tariff shakes markets

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  • January 23, 2025
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The EUR/USD pair has moved cautiously closer to the 1.0400 level after market sentiments soured up following the global economic ramifications of a plan by the US President, Donald Trump to put selective tariffs on Europe, China, Canada and Mexico. Investor weighing the prospective slowdown in the global economy, also international trade in the context of the latter’s imposition. ECB President Christine Lagarde called on Europe to be ready for targeted responses and called for strategic anticipation. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are due to make their monetary policy decisions, which will introduce a lot of volatility in the market. The Euro, struggling to gain above key resistance levels, has stabilized its near-term outlook, but the overall bearish trend continues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Evaluate how selective tariff increases on Europe, China, Canada, and Mexico might change the world’s economic growth and trade patterns. • Keep an eye out for interest rate changes as the ECB and Fed make their first monetary policy decisions of 2025. • Track Eurozone and US flash PMI data to measure business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. • The next major move of the pair could be determined by key support at 1.0175 and resistance at 1.0500. The EUR/USD pair continues to come under pressure as traders try to navigate a complex landscape shaped by selective tariff hikes by U.S. President Donald Trump and upcoming central bank decisions. Plans for a 25% tariffs by Trump on Canada and Mexico, coupled with 10% tariffs on China and possible levies on Europe, have created jitters about global economic growth, which helps appreciate the US Dollar. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde has called for Europe to get itself ready for these strategic responses, emphasizing that it needs to anticipate how their economy will be affected by it. Adding to the volatility, investors are closely watching Eurozone and US flash PMI data, as well as the monetary policy announcements from the ECB and Federal Reserve next week, which could greatly influence market sentiment and EUR/USD’s trajectory. The EUR/USD pair is under pressure near 1.0400 as Trump’s selective tariffs fuel global economic concerns, boosting the US Dollar. Investors now await ECB and Fed policy decisions for further direction. • Planned tariff hikes on Canada, Mexico, China, and Europe threaten global economic growth, supporting US Dollar strength. • Christine Lagarde emphasizes Europe must be ready to respond strategically to Trump’s tariff policies. • Investors eye January’s flash PMI data to assess manufacturing and services sector health. • ECB and Fed’s first 2025 monetary policy meetings next week could introduce market volatility. • Key support at 1.0175 and resistance at 1.0500 remain critical for traders. • The DXY bounces to 108.40 as the market becomes cautious while trade tensions persist. • Fed likely to hold the rates at current levels, while ECB is going to cut by 25-bps, marking a difference in strategy. EUR/USD: Global markets and the EUR/USD, in particular, are trading cautiously ahead of the 1.0400 mark in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s selective tariff hikes and their possible implications on growth in the global economy. Trump’s plans involve a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, a 10% tariff on China, and prospective levies on Europe, where he accuses the bloc of unfair trade practices. This has further increased the US Dollar as investors look for safety in case of trade disruption and slower economic growth. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde keeps saying that the appropriate mindset for Europe should be to remain prepared and strategically responsive, as Trump’s tariffs could be both targeted and have serious consequences. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView Prepared By ELLYANA More market movement can be expected today as traders await the Eurozone and the US flash PMI data in January, revealing new information about business activity in their manufacturing and services sectors. Meanwhile, the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the ECB next week are highly anticipated. The Fed is likely to hold its current rate range, but the ECB might introduce a 25-bps rate cut, which would signal divergent policy paths. Technically, EUR/USD fails to regain the 1.0500 resistance level, while the key support at 1.0175 remains a critical level for traders to watch. These trends are likely to determine the pair’s direction in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD remains under pressure and is trading near the 1.0400 level and fails to sustain above the immediate resistance at 1.0460. The pair looks to stabilize in the near term as it is holding above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at 1.0360. The immediate short-term perspective, however, remains bearish. The 200-day EMA slopes downward close to 1.0700, meaning downside pressure continues to persist. Support at the January 13 low of 1.0175 acts as a significant level for stopping the downtrend. Resistance at 1.0500 on the upside continues to act as a major barrier for bulls. Momentum indicators such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a divergence since RSI continues forming higher lows when the pair establishes a lower low as this might be an indicator of a shift in momentum if resistance is broken. FORECAST The upside for EUR/USD is some room for recovery as technicals and potentially improving economic data could underpin. The fact that the pair holds above its 20-day EMA implies resiliency short-term. The flash PMI data for January could be a light in the tunnel, where expectations are to see a slow contraction in business activity in the Eurozone. However, to see a strong recovery, breaking above the resistance at 1.0460 and the psychological barrier of 1.0500 will be the key. Any dovish signals from the Federal Reserve while making its monetary policy decision next week will only add to the Euro’s case. A declining 200-day EMA around 1.0700. Continued pressure from weaker Eurozone growth prospects, continued trade tensions, and central bank divergence leave the Euro exposed. Upward momentum will likely require stronger Eurozone

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