Gold Steadies Near $3,750 as Fed Rate-Cut Wagers, Geopolitical Concerns and Tariff Fears Fuel Safe-Haven Demand
Gold (XAU/USD) remains flat just below $3,750 as dovish Federal Reserve bets, revived geopolitical concerns, and Trump’s just-announced tariffs fuel safe-haven demand. Although positive US GDP, durable goods, and jobless claims reports show economic strength, they also leave Fed rate-cut pace uncertain, curbing aggressive bearish wagers. Markets now look for the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, for clearer indications on rate expectations, which may propel both the US Dollar and Gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • More than 85% chances of a 25 bps cut in October and 60% in December are priced in by markets, supporting Gold. • Trump’s latest tariffs on drugs, trucks, and cabinets are stoking worries of economic repercussions, spurring safe-haven demand. • Growing tensions across the world increase Gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against risk. • The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation will play a central role in dictating expectations of how quickly it cuts rates and guiding Gold’s short-term trend. Gold prices are flat at around $3,750 as investors weigh dovish Federal Reserve forecasts against robust US economic indicators and increasing geopolitical tensions. While markets are betting on probable rate cuts in October and December, positive GDP growth, durable goods orders, and weaker jobless claims signal resiliency in the US economy, leaving uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s easing tempo. Meanwhile, increased worries over Trump’s tariffs and international tensions are providing safe-haven support to the yellow metal. Investors now have their eyes set on the next US PCE Price Index, which will give them new indications on inflation and the Fed’s policy stance. Gold remains close to $3,750 as Fed rate-cut hopes and safe-haven demand due to tariff and geopolitical concerns counterbalance robust US economic data. Investors now look forward to the US PCE Price Index for more decisive indications of inflation and the Fed policy trajectory. • Gold trades flat close to $3,750, turning around an earlier fall on a supportive context. • Markets price in 85% probability of a Fed rate cut in October and more than 60% probability for December. • Robust US GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2 indicates economic vigor. • Durable Goods Orders rose 2.9% in August, beating estimates. • Trump imposed new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, heavy-duty trucks, and kitchen cabinets beginning October 1. • Unabating geopolitical tensions continue to fuel safe-haven demand for Gold. • Traders look to the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, for near-term policy signals. Gold is stable near $3,750 as investors balance dovish Federal Reserve hopes against better-than-expected US economic data. While markets are still hopeful of October and December rate cuts, the improved GDP revision, solid durable goods orders, and falling jobless claims have introduced uncertainty into the speed of policy easing. Even this, however, fails to prevent worries over the economic implications of Trump’s latest tariff initiative, together with ongoing geopolitical tensions, from continuing to underpin safe-haven demand for the precious metal. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView The Federal Reserve’s dovish tone is also keeping traders on their toes, policymakers indicating that they have to balance inflation risks with a slowing job market. Market players now anticipate the publication of the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is set to shape expectations of the timing and magnitude of future rate reductions. In the meantime, Gold is supported by a good macro backdrop as investors hunt for stability in a climate of economic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is bound by immediate support near the declining trendline at the $3,753–3,754 area, which has so far capped upside action this week. A break higher here might lead to a retest of the all-time high close at $3,790, with additional gains potentially touching $3,800 or even higher. On the negative side, firm support can be observed at $3,720–3,715, then the critical $3,700 psychological level; a decisive fall below may initiate technical selling and drive prices to the $3,650 and $3,610–$3,600 support levels. FORECAST If Gold is able to hold a break above the $3,753–3,754 resistance level, it would build on momentum towards re-testing the all-time high around $3,790. A convincing break above the $3,800 level would most likely serve as a new bullish trigger, setting the stage for a continuation of the overall uptrend. In this context, the buyers would target areas around $3,820–$3,850 driven by solid safe-haven buying and dovish expectations from the Fed. Conversely, inability to stay above the $3,720–3,715 support area might leave Gold at risk of further losses. A decisive break below the $3,700 psychological level could initiate technical selling, prolonging the correction to $3,650 in the first instance. If the bearish momentum continues to intensify, the next significant support will be around $3,610–$3,600, where potential buyers may try to re-enter.