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USD/CAD Dives to 1.3640 as Trump’s Tariff Action Invites Dollar Weakness Pre-FOMC and Canadian Employment Report

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  • July 8, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair plummeted to the vicinity of 1.3640 in Tuesday’s European session following a new series of 25% tariffs on imports from 14 nations led by prominent trade allies Japan and South Korea by former U.S. President Donald Trump. This action rekindled global trade tensions and put pressure on the US Dollar, wiping out some of its earlier gains. Market watchers now turn their attention to the next FOMC meeting minutes for cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate position and look forward to Canada’s labor market figures this Friday, which may affect the Bank of Canada’s future policy trajectory under signs of weakening employment conditions. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Tariffs of 25% on imports from 14 nations, such as Japan and South Korea, have sparked revived trade tensions, pressuring the US Dollar. •  The DXY sells weaker at 97.35 as the Greenback weakens as fears mount over the effect of tariffs on US importers and consumers. •  The market looks to Wednesday’s publication of the FOMC meeting minutes for hints at the Fed’s interest rate perspective following its June policy pause. •  Market attention is on Friday’s Canadian employment report, which could see rising Canadian unemployment weigh on the BoC’s next rate decision. USD/CAD currency pair fell close to 1.3640 on Tuesday after market sentiment grew cautious due to Donald Trump’s revelation of new 25% tariffs on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea. The revived trade tensions have triggered a sell-off of the US Dollar, unwinding some of Monday’s gains. While investors are still absorbing the potential economic implications of the tariffs, attention now turns to the upcoming release of FOMC meeting minutes for clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy intentions and Friday’s Canadian employment report, which will help direct expectations about future Bank of Canada action. USD/CAD fell to about 1.3640 following Trump’s imposition of additional tariffs on major trade partners, such as Japan. The US Dollar fell as trade tensions grew, with markets looking forward to FOMC minutes and Canadian employment data for policy signals. • USD/CAD fell to 1.3640 in Tuesday’s European session with renewed trade anxiety. • Donald Trump laid down 25% tariffs on imports from 14 nations, including Japan and South Korea. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) dipped to nearly 97.35 as the Greenback weakened. • Trade tensions returned, with worries over their effects on US consumers and inflation. • FOMC minutes due on Wednesday are awaited by investors to see what interest rate direction the Fed will take. • Friday’s Canadian labor data will indicate increasing unemployment, which could affect BoC policy. • Market sentiment is still guarded, with focus divided between US monetary indicators and Canadian economic news. The news from former U.S. President Donald Trump that there are to be new tariffs of 25% on 14 countries, including top trading partners Japan and South Korea, has reawakened global trade tensions. The surprise action has raised investors’ worries about the wider implications for global trade and inflation. With Washington and Tokyo negotiating constantly, the hasty tariff imposition makes people wonder about the stability of trade ties and possible countermeasures. It also focuses attention on how such policy shifts may affect economic growth and consumer prices in the United States. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, markets are keeping a close eye on the imminent release of key economic indicators that may dictate monetary policy decisions by both the U.S. and Canada. The FOMC minutes release will provide clues on why the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates steady for the fourth straight meeting. In Canada, the June labor market report is eagerly anticipated, and expectations are for unemployment to rise slightly. Such events will be important in framing market sentiment and central bank policies in the upcoming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD pair has fallen back towards the 1.3640 mark, a very important short-term support level. A continued dip below this level would open up the next support around 1.3600, with a bounce potentially getting stopped at the 1.3700 psychological level. Momentum oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate a faltering bullish inclination, which could lead to consolidation or further bearish pressure. Traders will be monitoring price activity on these important levels, particularly ahead of macroeconomic announcements slated to fuel volatility. FORECAST In the short term, USD/CAD can continue to dip further if trade tensions intensify or if the next Canadian labor market report surprises upwards. A better-than-expected employment report has a high likelihood of sending the Canadian Dollar higher, maybe even causing the pair to dip below the 1.3600 support. Also, any indication from the FOMC minutes that the Federal Reserve will take a more dovish approach in its future decisions can weaken the US Dollar further, creating even more bearishness for the pair. On the positive side, if Canadian employment data turn out weaker or FOMC minutes hint at a more aggressive tone than expected, USD/CAD may get a bid and bounce up to the 1.3700 level of resistance. Ongoing uncertainty in international trade and a possible reversal in investor sentiment in favor of safe-haven assets can also offer some support for the US Dollar, capping downside potential in the near term. Overall, the currency pair is likely to continue being volatile as markets respond to economic indicators and geopolitical events.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rally Stalls at Record as Tariff Worries and Weaker U.S. Data Compel Pause

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  • February 22, 2025
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Gold rose for eight weeks running, reaching an all-time peak of $2,954 amidst uncertainty caused by widened U.S. tariffs imposed on lumber and soft commodities that further fueled market jitters. Whereas safe-haven buying drove bullion up against the backdrop of Trump’s strong trade rhetoric, conflicting U.S. economic readings—characterized by a positive Manufacturing PMI but a collapsed Services PMI, declining existing home sales, and softening consumer sentiment—kept investors tentative. Technical indicators indicate while gold’s upward bias is still intact, the possibility of retracement exists if there is a breach of major support levels around $2,900, all against the backdrop of expected monetary easing in 2025 by the Fed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s widening tariffs on lumber and soft commodities power market anxieties, driving safe-haven purchases, but pose downside risks in the context of global trade tensions. • While production improves, falling services PMI, decreasing home sales, and weaker consumer sentiment signal increasing caution. • Gold’s strength falters; an RSI exit from overbought levels and support at $2,900 could trigger a corrective pullback. • Central bank buying rose by more than 54% YoY, supporting bullishness in the face of trade uncertainty, while the Fed’s expected easing in 2025 is a long-term tailwind. Investors closely follow the deepening trade policy uncertainty as Trump’s soft commodities and lumber tariffs continue to stimulate market anxiety and safe-haven purchases. Meanwhile, diverging U.S. economic indicators come with rising manufacturing activity paired against contracting services PMI, softer home sales, and a cooling consumer mood to provide even greater caution. Technical indicators indicate that gold’s rally could be running out of steam, as the RSI leaves overbought levels and support at $2,900 is key. In addition, central bank buying jumped more than 54% YoY, and hopes for a 50 basis point Fed easing in 2025 provide additional bullish backing. Investors are paying close attention to Trump’s wider tariffs, which have sent gold prices to near historic highs due to safe-haven demand. Cautiousness may be appropriate based on mixed U.S. data and weakening technical momentum, with important support at $2,900. • Gold reached a new high of $2,954 following eight weeks of continuous increases. • Trump’s imposition of wider tariffs on lumber and soft commodities created market uncertainty. • American economic news recorded a higher Manufacturing PMI but a downgrading Services PMI. • Sinking current home sales and consumer attitudes deepened investors’ hesitations. • Indications in the technical arena show the market potentially reeling, with prime support around $2,900. • Central bank purchases surged more than 54% YoY, sustaining bull-like expectations. • Fed funds futures project that the next rate reduction will be a 50 basis point drop sometime in 2025. Gold has risen for eight straight weeks to a record $2,954 as policy uncertainty in global trade has been building. The announcement by President Trump to target tariffs on lumber and soft goods added to uncertainty in the markets, with investors turning to gold as a haven asset. Geopolitical anxiety underpinning the trend further involves ongoing diplomatic talks to calm the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has kept markets around the globe in a watchful mood. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Conversely, US economic data has a mixed report. Although there has been some resilience in manufacturing activity, softer services sector performance and weakening consumer sentiment indicate underlying economic issues. Moreover, the rise in central bank gold purchases indicates expanding optimism in the metal as a store of value. Investors continue to monitor further policy action, especially with hopes for a possible loosening by the Federal Reserve during 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis shows that although gold still has an upward bias, momentum seems to be waning since the Relative Strength Index leaves overbought conditions. Critical support is set near $2,900, and a violation of this level can open the doors for a drop towards prior swing lows. Alternatively, if the price succeeds in breaking through resistance near $2,950, it might reflect further upwards progress towards the $3,000 level. FORECAST If gold can break through important resistance levels—particularly around the psychological level of $2,950—then further bullish pressure could push prices to the $3,000 level. Positive global trade trends and ongoing central bank demand for gold could further support investor attitudes, leading to a prolonged rally and cementing the metal’s position as a safe haven. On the other hand, if gold fails to break through these resistance points or if newly released economic data indicates improved risk sentiment, a retracement back to the support level of $2,900 will be seen. A change in market fundamentals, perhaps an enhanced understanding of trade policies or good economic recovery indicators, would result in profit-taking and cause prices to pull back temporarily.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Reaches More Than Two-Month High Versus USD on BoJ Rate Hike Speculation and Global Risk Aversion

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has reached a more than two-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as escalating speculation of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes pushes Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to record-high levels. This narrowing differential rate enhances the Yen’s attractiveness, again fueled by worldwide risk aversion after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs. Even with the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bias, the USD cannot find footing, with investors watching for key support levels around the 150.00 psychological level for USD/JPY. If the bearish pressure persists, the pair may dip further, with resistance around 151.00-152.65 potentially capping any attempts at an upside. Market players now look to US economic data and Fed rhetoric for guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher bets on more BoJ rate hikes drive Japanese government bond yields up, bolstering the Yen and reducing the rate spread. • Investor morale deteriorates as US President Donald Trump hints at fresh tariffs, triggering global risk aversion and increasing demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 psychological level, with a possible downside extension to 149.00 should bearish momentum continue. • Even with a hawkish Fed, the US Dollar fails to make headway, with future economic data and FOMC speeches likely to guide market direction. The Japanese Yen maintains its bullish run on increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and spiking Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate gap bolsters the Yen, and the global risk aversion, which is fueled by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs, adds to safe-haven demand. The US Dollar is still unable to attract buyers, despite the hawkish tone set by the Federal Reserve, and keeps USD/JPY trading below the 150.00 psychological level. Traders now look for major support levels, Fed policy indications, and future US economic data to drive the pair. The Japanese Yen rises as increased BoJ rate hike hopes and jumping JGB yields lift demand. Risk aversion is driven by Trump’s tariff threats, also helping the Yen. The US Dollar, however, lags in spite of the Fed’s hawkishness, leaving USD/JPY close to the pivotal 150.00 mark.  • Increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes drive Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to their highest level in more than a decade. • The Japanese Yen jumps to a two-month high versus the US Dollar as the declining rate differential enhances its attractiveness. • US President Donald Trump’s proposals for fresh tariffs induce global risk aversion, and demand for the safe-haven Yen rises. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 level, with additional downside potential towards 149.00 if bearish momentum persists. • In spite of the Federal Reserve’s conservative sentiment and inflationary worries, the US Dollar has a hard time gaining momentum versus the rising Yen. • Japan’s Trade Minister is set to discuss tariff exclusions with the US, something that may have implications on trade and currency trends. • Market participants look for significant US economic indicators, such as jobless claims and Fed speeches, to provide additional guidance on the USD/JPY currency pair. The Japanese Yen is still firming as hopes rise that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. Increased Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are a sign of the central bank moving away from its extremely loose monetary stance, and this makes the Yen more appealing to investors. Further, the latest economic news, such as Japan’s better-than-expected Q4 GDP, back up the argument that the Japanese economy is healthy enough to digest a rise in interest rates. Such a move in monetary policy is regarded as being a pivotal decision for Japan while it faces the challenges of economic recovery and taming inflation. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, geopolitics and trade tensions contribute to the attractiveness of the Yen as a safe-haven currency. US President Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding new tariffs have disturbed world markets, and investors have turned to more secure assets such as the Yen for stability. Japan’s Trade Minister is also scheduled to discuss possible exemptions from the tariffs, underlining the current trade tensions. In contrast, while taking into consideration the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance with regards to next rate decisions, the US Dollar has not significantly appreciated, as market players still await forthcoming economic data and policy updates from the two nations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair flirts with key 150.00 psychological benchmark, with speculative traders closely looking at key supports and resistances. A clean break below 150.00 would further boost bearish momentum, driving the pair to the 149.60-149.55 area and then down to 149.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, reflecting persistent selling pressure without yet showing signs of being oversold. On the upside, the 150.90-151.00 area now serves as a first resistance level, with any break above likely to initiate a short-covering rally to 151.40. Additional gains may encounter selling interest near the 152.00 level, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.65 is an important pivot point for short-term traders. FORECAST If the USD/JPY pair can hold above the 150.90-151.00 resistance area, it may cause a short-term rebound. Breaking above the level could prompt buyers to take the pair towards the next important barrier at 151.40. Above this, additional upside may be challenged in the vicinity of the 152.00 psychological level, where selling pressure would be expected. But if bullish momentum persists, the level of 152.65, coinciding with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), will be an important level to monitor. A firm break above this would potentially set the stage for additional gains, drawing buyers into higher resistance areas. On the negative side, persistent bear momentum would lead USD/JPY to break below the pivotal 150.00 psychological support. A clean break below this level might boost the selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the subsequent support area of 149.60-149.55. If this level is also breached, the downtrend might continue towards the 149.00 level, followed

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Currencies

USD/CHF Weakened Due to Trade Tensions and Minor USD Decline: Major Market Developments

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  • February 20, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair has weakened to the 0.9025 level, ending a three-day winning streak due to fresh US Dollar (USD) selling and increasing global trade tensions. New tariff threats from the previous US President Donald Trump have created fear of a trade war, driving demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). In addition, a drop in US Treasury bond yields and a risk-averse market sentiment have added to the pressure on the USD. Expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook may, however, offer some relief to the USD, potentially capping further losses in the pair. Market participants now look forward to future US economic releases such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, for new trading hints.  KEY LOOKOUTS • New trade war fears induced by fresh threats from Donald Trump support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and clobber USD/CHF. • Rebounding selling in the US Dollar, combined with falling Treasury yields, bears on USD/CHF even as a hawkish Federal Reserve tone lends some support. • Market participants look to important US economic data releases, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which have the potential to impact USD/CHF price action. • Federal Reserve commentary could shed light on future monetary policy, potentially influencing market sentiment and fueling USD/CHF volatility. USD/CHF is under pressure as increased US Dollar (USD) weakness and rising trade tensions cool investor appetite. Fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump have fueled fears of an impending trade war, propelling demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). Further, a drop in US Treasury bond yields has eclipsed the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed), capping USD’s revival. But the next releases of US economic data, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and speeches by influential FOMC members may bring new information about monetary policy and drive USD/CHF price action in the next sessions. The USD/CHF currency pair loses ground as increased USD selling and growing trade tensions spur demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc. Falling US Treasury yields dominate the Fed’s hawkish tone, while future US economic releases and FOMC speeches could direct additional price action. • The pair falls to the 0.9025 region, ending a three-day winning streak in the wake of increased USD selling and escalating trade tensions. • New tariff news drives international trade war fears, which support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). • Weakening US Treasury bond yields and overall risk aversion hold down the US Dollar, which restricts its rally. • In spite of dovish FOMC minutes, hopes of a prolonged rate pause can lend some support to the USD. • Watch US Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for indications of economic health and potential market effect. • Remarks by Federal Reserve officials may influence expectations of monetary policy and guide USD price action. • A drop below 0.9025 can expose the pair to more weakness, with the next important support in the 0.8970-0.8965 zone. The USD/CHF currency pair continues to be affected by the developments in world trade and investors’ mood, especially following recent tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump. The threat of new tariffs created fears of an impending trade war, leading to investors’ appetite for safe assets such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). This change of market sentiment reflects wider economic uncertainty, as the policies of trade continue to weigh on global financial stability. Furthermore, the conservative tone in equity markets suggests investors are taking prudent stock of risks, with a special emphasis on safe-haven currencies in light of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, the movement of the US Dollar is influenced by a combination of economic signals and policy expectations. Although the Federal Reserve has been hawkish, recent market developments indicate that investors are keenly interested in future releases of economic data. Important reports such as the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are likely to reveal more about the health of the US economy. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials’ speeches can provide greater insight into monetary policy in the future, shaping market expectations and impacting overall investor sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF currency pair has been resisted at the 0.9055 level, where selling pressure was witnessed, resulting in a pullback towards the 0.9025 region. The pair’s failure to hold gains indicates a possible change in momentum, with traders closely monitoring major support levels around 0.8970-0.8965. A breakdown of this level could set the stage for additional decline, while a rebound from here might signal consolidation or fresh buying interest. To the upside, continued action over 0.9055 could enhance bullish pressure, driving the pair to the next resistance around 0.9100. Momentum oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages will play a key role in establishing the next directional impulse. FORECAST If the USD strengthens on hawkish Federal Reserve cues or better-than-anticipated US economic news, the USD/CHF currency pair may try to bounce back. A breakout above the 0.9055 resistance level may encourage more buying interest, and the pair may head towards the 0.9100 psychological level. Any relief in global risk appetite or relaxation in trade tensions also may take away demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc, supporting the USD. Investors will also be monitoring future FOMC speeches for interest rate direction clues, which would support the dollar and push the pair higher. To the downside, ongoing global trade tensions and risk aversion may keep the Swiss Franc underpinned, capping any USD/CHF recovery. If the pair cannot hold above the 0.9025 area, it may see losses extend to the 0.8970-0.8965 support area. A clean breakdown below this level could initiate further selling pressure, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper losses. Weaker

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Prices Fall Amid Increasing US Inventories and Trade Tariff Fears

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  • February 20, 2025
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WTI Crude Oil prices fell from a one-week high on Thursday, dropping to the $71.70 region as increasing US crude inventories and fears of possible trade tariffs by former President Donald Trump dampened market sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported US crude stocks at 3.34 million barrels higher, exacerbating concerns over a supply surplus. Moreover, concerns over diminishing fuel demand from the Eurozone and China weighed on oil prices further. Yet, supply cuts in Russia from a Ukrainian drone attack and a weaker US Dollar helped cushion, preventing losses deeper. Traders now look to official US crude inventory data for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reported 3.34 million barrel build in US crude stocks sparks oversupply concerns, weighing on WTI prices below $72. • Concerns that proposed trade tariffs may curb global economic growth and lower fuel demand contribute to the bearish tone in the oil market. • A Ukrainian drone attack has lowered oil volumes through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by 30%-40%, possibly capping deeper losses for crude prices. • Even if the Fed becomes more hawkish, a weak USD may contribute some support to oil prices and impact near-term market direction. WTI Crude Oil prices are again under pressure as rising US crude stockpiles and trade tariff uncertainty weigh on sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) also indicated a 3.34 million barrel build in US crude stocks, fueling concerns of an oversupplied market. Uncertainty surrounding possible trade tariffs from former President Donald Trump also contributes to concerns over declining global fuel demand, especially from the Eurozone and China. But support comes from some quarter with supply disturbances in Russia, occasioned by a Ukrainian drone attack cutting oil deliveries from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by 30%-40%. A softer US Dollar, irrespective of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position, may also help to blunt losses. Now, market players wait for US crude inventory figures to gauge further price action. WTI Crude Oil prices fall with rising US crude inventories and trade tariff worries dampening sentiment. Russian supply disruptions and weaker USD provide some respite. • Crude oil prices fall back from a one-week high, down to the $71.70 region on renewed selling pressure. • The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced a 3.34 million barrel increase in US crude inventories, which fueled concerns about oversupply. • Prospective trade tariffs by previous President Donald Trump contribute to anxiety around slower economic expansion globally, weighing on fuel consumption. • Economic uncertainty in the Eurozone and China and slowing Eurozone exacerbate concerns surrounding lower crude oil consumption in primary markets. • A Ukrainian aerial drone attack lowers Caspian Pipeline Consortium crude flows by 30%-40%, serving to cap additional decline. • Even with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, a weaker USD offers some respite to oil prices. • Official US crude inventory data is awaited by traders for more information on supply-demand balance and upcoming price direction. WTI Crude Oil prices are under pressure on the back of a combination of increasing US crude inventories and global economic woes. The most recent information from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a 3.34 million barrel gain in US crude inventories, triggering concerns over an oversupply situation. Secondly, uncertainty about possible trade tariffs, especially those associated with erstwhile President Donald Trump, has been driving fears over decelerating economic growth and lower fuel demand. Weak leading indicators from large economies such as the Eurozone and China also contribute to the risk-averse market mood, prompting traders to be cautious about short-term price stability. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the supply side, geopolitical tensions remain a factor in market dynamics. A recent Ukrainian drone strike on Russian oil facilities has resulted in a 30%-40% cut in oil supplies from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, pointing to possible supply disruptions. Though such incidents may cap the extent of steep price falls, market players still look towards overarching economic considerations and inventory levels for more definitive direction. Furthermore, the weakening US Dollar, notwithstanding the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, may offer some indirect boost to crude oil consumption. As investors weigh the dynamics of supply and demand, focus is on future inventory releases and economic data that may influence market mood in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil prices are resisted at the $73.00 level, a top that halted the recent rally. The retreat from this one-week high indicates selling pressure, with immediate support at the $71.50-$71.70 region. A move below here may bring with it further losses towards the psychological $70.00 level. On the upside, continued buying above $73.00 may drive prices towards the subsequent resistance at $74.50-$75.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to neutral levels, and there is no strong momentum dominance, while moving averages indicate a subdued outlook where the 50-day MA provides dynamic resistance. Traders will be keeping a close eye on price action at major support and resistance levels to gauge the next direction. FORECAST WTI Crude Oil prices in the short term could be under pressure from increasing US crude inventories and worries about declining global demand. The recent API report of a 3.34 million barrel rise in crude stocks indicates an oversupplied market, which would cap any meaningful price bounce. Moreover, concerns over possible trade tariffs and economic instability in big economies such as the Eurozone and China could also bear down on demand. If the next official US crude stocks figures continue to show increases in inventories, prices would likely see more falls, potentially through breaking important psychological support levels. Conversely, possible upside action in crude oil prices cannot be discounted, especially if geopolitical concerns intensify. Supply cuts from Russia as a result of the Ukrainian drone strike have already cut Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil supplies by 30%-40%, which should lend some support. Also, a softening US Dollar, even with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish attitude, could enhance crude purchasing power, which would result in a moderate recovery. If demand picks up in China

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Commodities Gold

Gold Records All-Time High as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle World Markets

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  • February 19, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) shot up to a new all-time high above $2,945 on Wednesday, extending its upward trend for the third straight day. The bull run was propelled by increased geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump re-emphasized his vow to implement 25% tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and drug imports. Naysays regarding US-Russia tensions, combined with market volatility pre-Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes report, contributed to the allure of gold as an insurance asset. Technicals present a possible challenge in the neighborhood of $2,951 and $2,966, though any dovish undertones the Fed may carry could further move gold towards psychological $3,000. There is still possible reversal, nonetheless, if sentiment responds to the economic data or Fed policy tilt. KEY LOOKOUTS • The threat of 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and drugs inspires market uncertainty and pushes gold to all-time highs. • Federal Reserve January meeting minutes may guide gold’s performance, with speculators looking for clues on next interest rate actions. • Gold is resisted at $2,951 and $2,966, with potential to push further to $3,000 in case of continuous bullish momentum. • Safe-haven demand is boosted by US-Russia tensions and Trump’s hardline on Ukraine, supporting gold prices in the face of worldwide uncertainty. Gold’s record-setting sprint to a new all-time high of over $2,945 shows the market’s responsiveness to economic and geopolitical events. With Trump’s return to tit-for-tat tariffs shaking markets and uncertainty hanging over US-Russia relations, investors are hedging against volatility with gold. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC Minutes release provides further anticipation, as any sign of policy changes could influence market mood. Although gold’s upward trend is still intact, resistance levels around $2,951 and $2,966 may hinder further advances unless a dovish Fed or rising tensions provide further impetus for the rally. Gold rockets above $2,945 on Trump tariff plans and geopolitics. Market direction is now expected from the Fed’s FOMC Minutes. • XAU/USD rockets above $2,945, its third day of advance amidst global uncertainty. • The U.S. President reaffirms 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, heightening market fears. • Trump’s aggressive stance on Ukraine and US-Russia relations further contributes to investor uncertainty, supporting gold’s safe-haven status. • Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting may affect gold’s direction based on signals about interest rate policy. • Gold has strong resistance at $2,951 and $2,966 levels, with possibilities of a run to $3,000. • The 10-year benchmark yield is just shy of 4.56%, affecting the direction of gold as market players determine risk mood. • Koza Altin’s plan to make 40+ tons of gold in five years reflects the industry’s solid demand and prospects for growth. Gold’s rise to an all-time new high is a sign of increasing investor worries on geopolitical tensions and economic policies. The recent gold price boost follows U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirming his decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. The decision has augmented concerns over trade disruption, and investors are resorting to the safety of gold as a safe-haven instrument. Furthermore, Trump’s tough statements on Ukraine have contributed to the uncertainty in the market, particularly after the initial negotiations between U.S. and Russian leaders failed to defuse tensions. In this context, investors and traders continue to pour into gold as a safe-haven asset against economic turmoil.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Beyond geopolitics, market participants are also closely watching the Federal Reserve, as its upcoming FOMC Minutes release could shape future economic policies. While several Fed officials have signaled that interest rates remain at reasonable levels, inflationary concerns persist. Gold’s ongoing strength reflects the broader uncertainty in financial markets, where investors remain cautious about global economic trends. Furthermore, gold demand continues to be strong, with Turkish miner Koza Altin detailing plans to boost production over the next few years. With fears over trade, politics, and monetary policy escalating, gold is still favored as a hedge asset for stability and long-term protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s move through $2,910 has bolstered bullish sentiment, taking prices to a new all-time high above $2,945. The next important resistance points are at $2,951 and $2,966, with a likely push to the psychological $3,000 if purchasing pressure remains. But in case gold meets with rejection near these levels, a retreat to near-term support at $2,921 could happen, and further weakness might follow at $2,906. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating conditions of overbuying, implying a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The next FOMC Minutes release may serve as a pivotal catalyst, deciding whether gold continues its upward move or experiences a short-term retracement. FORECAST Gold’s historic rally above $2,945 has fueled speculation about whether the trend will persist or experience a pullback. If geopolitical tensions rise further, especially with Trump’s belligerent approach to tariffs and Ukraine, gold may experience further upside. Safe-haven demand continues to be robust as investors hedge against economic uncertainty, and any dovish tone by the Federal Reserve in its FOMC Minutes would further push gold towards the psychological $3,000 level. Moreover, ongoing inflation worries and robust central bank purchases across the globe could continue to lend support to gold’s bullishness in the coming days. To the downside, gold is exposed to a near-term correction in case market sentiment changes. The next FOMC Minutes may provide a more sobering interest rate outlook that might dampen gold’s demand. Should the trend in rising bond yields hold, investors will rotate out of gold to move into more attractive-yielding instruments. Lastly, profit-taking at record levels may even cause gold to pull back temporarily, particularly if gold is unable to gain traction above key resistance points. A stronger dollar or positive economic indicators may also weigh on gold, causing possible retracements in the upcoming sessions.

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