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Gold Prices Rally Near Two-Week High as USD Weakens on US Fiscal Worries and Global Geopolitical Risks

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  • May 22, 2025
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Gold prices rallied to a near two-week high, holding above $3,300, as a weakening US dollar combined with rising fiscal worries in the US. Investor concern over growing US deficit, amid Moody’s recent downgrade of the nation’s sovereign credit rating and divisive tax bill, has dented dollar confidence. Fears of renewed US-China trade tensions and rising geopolitical threats, such as simmering Middle Eastern conflicts, have further fueled demand for gold as a haven asset. Technical indicators further indicate a positive outlook for gold, with the price breaking key resistance levels and ready to test higher targets in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Investors will watch closely what happens with the US tax-cut and spending bill, which could dramatically add to the national debt and affect market sentiment. •  Bets on additional Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 in response to weakening growth and softening inflation continue to be a key driver of the US dollar and gold prices. • Disputes over export controls and technology restrictions linger, potentially raising geopolitical risks, and underpinning gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and major-power rivalries between countries such as Russia are also fueling uncertainty, underscoring gold’s use as a defensive asset. Investors are watching closely as the evolving US fiscal situation plays out, with the approval of a large tax-cut and spending measure risking expansion of the national debt and dampening market sentiment. While that is on its way out, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2025 as the economy slows and inflation eases continue to weigh on the US dollar, supporting gold’s allure. Increased tensions in US-China trade relations, specifically on tech exports, provide another source of geopolitical uncertainty, supporting safe-haven purchases. Furthermore, continued unrest in the Middle East and tensions among world powers maintain uncertainty, adding to gold’s role as a sanctuary in uncertain times. Markets continue to be preoccupied with US fiscal woes and possible Fed rate reductions, which are depressing the dollar and bolstering gold prices. Increased US-China trade tensions and continued geopolitical unrest continue to fuel safe-haven demand for the metal. • Gold prices went higher for the fourth straight day to set a near two-week peak of more than $3,300. • The US dollar is weak because of increasing fiscal fears and anticipations of Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. • Moody’s reduction of the US sovereign credit rating and concerns regarding the widening US deficit overhang market sentiment. •  The Republican-sponsored tax-cut and spending package may add trillions to the US debt, yet another reason for concern. •  Resurgent US-China trade tensions, particularly on the export of advanced technology, are amplifying geopolitical risks. •  Middle Eastern conflicts and tense international relations remain strong fundamentals for the demand for gold. •  Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, as prices break resistance levels and head towards $3,365 and further to $3,400. Gold prices have continued to climb as a background of increasing economic and geopolitical risks. Concerns among investors regarding the fiscal health of the United States are still at the forefront, particularly in the wake of Moody’s recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The threat of the passage of a large tax-cut and spending measure, which will add trillions to the national debt, has further spooked markets. Further, the US dollar has lost strength on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in 2025 as economic growth slows and inflation eases. This pairing has made gold a more attractive safe-haven asset. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, escalating US-China tensions over the export of technologies have fueled geopolitical risks, underpinning a risk-averse market mood. Middle Eastern conflicts, such as ongoing military interventions and humanitarian issues, provide another source of uncertainty, prompting investors to find shelter in gold. As several sources of risk coalesce, gold remains in favor with buyers in search of stability in a context of economic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has shown robust bullish strength, powering past major resistance levels of $3,250-$3,255 and holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of its latest bear move. Daily chart oscillators are becoming increasingly positive, implying upward trend momentum and that the direction of least resistance still is to the upside. This technical resilience is indicative of further advances toward the $3,365 area and even toward the $3,400 level, as long as the price remains above key support levels around $3,300. But any meaningful break below support might attract selling pressure, pushing lower levels of $3,250 and $3,200. FORECAST Gold prices are set to maintain their ascending direction as long as they remain above major support levels of $3,300. Favorable momentum and robust safe-haven demand fueled by continuing geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries would propel prices to the next resistance level of $3,365. A break below this level would see gold challenging the psychologically important $3,400 level, boosted by continuing US dollar weakness and hopes of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the flip side, inability to find support near the $3,300 level could pave the way for a corrective pullback. Sellers could engage near $3,255 if gold drops below $3,285. Yet a clear break below this support level may result in additional technical selling, pushing prices to the $3,200 level. Such a situation could occur if risk appetite upgrades considerably or if US economic reports lower expectations for monetary easing.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges in US Dollar Weakness and RBA Rate Reduction in Spite of Economic Uncertainties

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  • May 21, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied against the US Dollar (USD) in spite of increasing hopes of increased rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The US Dollar weakened in the wake of the US economic outlook uncertainty, falling business and consumer sentiments, and a recent credit rating downgrade of the US by Moody’s. The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA was considered a preemptive measure to bolster economic confidence, and Australian political change and favorable employment figures also supported the AUD. Technicals indicate further strength for AUD/USD, as key resistance and support levels are monitored closely by traders. In contrast, global trade tensions and China’s mixed economic signals remain to drive market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Monitor additional Fed commentary and releases of economic data, as doubts about decelerating growth and trade policy issues are maintaining pressure on the US Dollar. • Monitor near-term RBA comments and actions, as Governor Bullock’s remarks suggest additional rate cuts may be forthcoming pending economic developments. • Keep an eye on the AUD/USD pair at the major technical levels — support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6426 and resistance near the six-month peak of 0.6515 — that would determine short- to medium-term direction. • US-China trade news and Chinese economic indicators, particularly retail sales and industrial production, are still key to risk sentiment and the outlook for the AUD. Market players must pay close attention to statements by Federal Reserve officials as well as coming US economic reports since fears of decelerating growth and trade policy ambiguity continue to drag on the US Dollar. Future Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy actions, particularly any suggestions of additional rate reductions, will also be pivotal for the Australian Dollar’s direction. From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair’s movement around support at the nine-day EMA near 0.6426 and resistance at the six-month high of 0.6515 will likely dictate short- to medium-term momentum. Additionally, ongoing developments in US-China trade relations and China’s economic performance remain key factors influencing risk sentiment and the broader currency market outlook. Monitor Fed cues and US economic indicators as they keep pushing the US Dollar. Future RBA rate decisions and technical levels of 0.6426 and 0.6515 will dictate AUD/USD direction. US-China trade news and China’s economic indicators continue to be significant for market mood in the meantime. • The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied despite ongoing predictions of additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. •   The US Dollar (USD) lost ground as fears of slower US economic growth and falling business and consumer confidence took its toll. •  Moody’s reduced the US credit rating, putting further pressure on the USD as federal debt forecasts rose. •  The RBA lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points, calling it a preemptive action to enhance economic optimism. •  Australian political turmoil and robust employment rates sustained the AUD’s strength. •  Technical analysis indicates AUD/USD is trading above major moving averages, with resistance at 0.6515 and support at 0.6426. •  Persistent US-China trade tensions and China’s mixed economic reports continue to dictate risk sentiment and currency trends. The Australian Dollar has remained resilient against a tough global economic environment, appreciating as worries mount about the economic prospects of the US. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to weakening consumer and business sentiment, driven in part by uncertainty around US trade policy and persistent geopolitical tensions. Moody’s recent credit rating downgrade of the US also reduced optimism regarding the US Dollar, as climbing federal debt and budget deficits create long-term concerns. At the same time, China’s rebuke of US trade restrictions and its uneven economic readings contribute to the multifaceted global trade landscape, shaping investor outlook. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Australia, the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank was presented as a preemptive move to enhance confidence and respond to prevailing economic conditions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that the bank stands prepared to make additional action if necessary to control inflation and drive growth. Political developments in Australia, as well as better-than-anticipated jobs data, have also seen a positive domestic environment contribute to a strengthened Australian Dollar despite broader worldwide uncertainty and changing trade tensions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is indicating sustained bullish momentum as it continues to trade above significant moving averages, and this suggests that there is bullish sentiment among the traders. The pair is receiving support close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and this is serving as a short-term support, whereas resistance points around near-term highs are being monitored closely for possible breakouts. Momentum gauges, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are still higher above neutral ground, indicating that buyers are in control right now. But a firm break below these support points may indicate a change in momentum and higher risks of decline in the near term. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may continue to strengthen if the US Dollar continues to be under pressure due to ongoing economic issues and dovish Federal Reserve hints. US-China trade negotiation positives or more-than-anticipated economic news from Australia, like jobs or inflation data, might support investor sentiment in the AUD. Moreover, if the RBA telegraphs a rate cut halt or suggests stabilizing monetary policy, it might support the currency’s bullish momentum and drive the AUD/USD currency pair towards recent resistance levels. On the negative side, heightened concerns on the global economic outlook or rising geopolitical tensions might deter the Australian Dollar, considering its risk sensitivity. If the RBA hints at more forceful rate reductions amid softer local growth or weakening inflation data, the AUD might lose ground. In addition, any weakening of US-China trade relations or Chinese economic data that is less than expected would temper demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD, and cause a pullback to major support levels.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Dips to Two-Week Low as Dollar Weakness and Safe-Haven Flows Drive Swiss Franc Higher

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  • May 21, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair has continued its losing streak for the third day in a row, dropping to a two-week low at the 0.8220 level due to ongoing US Dollar weakness and an increase in safe-haven buying of the Swiss Franc. The greenback pressure to the downside is fueled by rising US fiscal worries following an unexpected sovereign credit rating downgrade, in addition to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year as inflation is easing and growth is slowing. Moreover, renewed US-China tensions over chip export controls have weighed on market sentiment, supporting demand for safe-haven assets such as the CHF. In the absence of significant US data releases, eyes now shift to speeches by FOMC members and geopolitical events to drive the near-term path of the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants will carefully listen to statements from Federal Reserve officials for new indications of the timing and magnitude of prospective rate reductions. • Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding chip export ban tensions and retaliatory threats, may support safe-haven flows and benefit the Swiss Franc. • No significant data is scheduled for midweek, but future releases on growth, inflation, or employment might affect USD sentiment and determine the way the pair goes. • Any additional decline in global risk appetite or return of market volatility might make the CHF stronger and continue to apply pressure to USD/CHF. USD/CHF pair is still at risk of further declines on a mix of bearish sentiment around the US Dollar and persistent demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc. Market focus will be placed on near-term speeches from influential FOMC members, which may provide new insights into the Fed’s monetary policy direction, particularly in light of increasing interest rate cut expectations. In addition, increased US-China trade tensions related to chip export restrictions are likely to hurt investor sentiment, potentially triggering additional safe-haven flows into the CHF. With few economic data points on the calendar, broad risk appetite and geopolitics will be instrumental in dictating the near-term direction of the pair. USD/CHF pair continues to face pressure as continuous USD weakness and increasing safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc act on the pair. Attention now turns to FOMC speeches and US-China trade tensions, which may further impact short-term market mood. •  USD/CHF falls to two-week low, trading near 0.8220 level in face of continuous selling pressure on US Dollar. •  US fiscal woes and a recent sovereign credit rating downgrade remain overhanging the greenback. •  Bets on a rate cut by the Fed become increasingly strong with evidence of slowing inflation and a weak US economic outlook. •  Safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc is intensifying, further pinning back the USD/CHF pair. •  US-China trade tensions intensify over chip export controls, damaging world risk sentiment and underpinning CHF strength. •  Deficiency of significant US economic data turns attention in the market towards FOMC members’ speeches for policy direction. •  Technical and fundamental bias is still bearish, and there is potential for additional decline in the near future. The USD/CHF currency pair is presently subject to a mix of international and local drivers that are beneficial for the Swiss Franc. Continued unease about the fiscal condition of the U.S., particularly in the wake of recent sovereign credit rating downgrade for the country, has dented investor confidence in the U.S. Dollar. Further added to this is increased speculation that the Federal Reserve can consider interest rate reductions later this year with signs of inflation softening and economic growth slowing down. These trends have helped bring about a consistent weakening of the value of the Dollar, underpinning demand for traditionally safer assets such as the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides local economic issues in the U.S., geopolitical tensions are also at large contributing to guiding market behavior. The renewed trade tension between the U.S. and China—initiated by export controls regarding cutting-edge chip technology—has generated new worries over global trade stability. The sharp response by China to U.S. actions has disturbed markets and spurred a flight to safety, which normally favors such currencies as the Swiss Franc. With little key economic data on the horizon in the near term, market players are keeping a close eye on central bank commentary and geopolitical developments to gauge the next set of moves in global currency markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF pair is trending downwards, indicating persistent bearish pressure. The pair is below crucial moving averages, which suggests a dominant short-term bearish bias. Momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to be bearish, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Failure of the pair to maintain above the prevailing support zone may bring about the doorway for further losses. Yet any hoped-for reversal is expected to find resistance close to recent swing highs, where the sellers are likely to return to market. FORECAST USD/CHF pair may emerge if the market mood turns in favor of the US Dollar. This may happen if future speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers take a more hawkish tone, underestimating the probabilities of imminent rate cuts. Second, and perhaps more importantly, any resolution or relief in US-China trade tensions may dampen safe-haven demand, in turn weakening the Swiss Franc and favoring a bounce in the pair. Friendly surprises in major US economic indicators like higher-than-anticipated GDP or inflation figures may also give the USD a much-needed boost in the near future. On the negative side, the USD/CHF cross is still exposed to lower levels as the bearish forces continue. Renewed worries about the US fiscal situation coupled with growing market optimism regarding future Fed rate reductions are most likely to continue exerting downward pressure on the Dollar. Furthermore, if geopolitical tensions between the US and China heighten, Swiss Franc safe-haven flows can continue to strengthen. Under these conditions, the USD/CHF pair might continue its recent losses and challenge lower levels of support as safety demands from investors surpass risk appetite.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Finds Strength As Firm Domestic Jobs Data and Lessening Global Trade Tensions Boost AUD vs. USD

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  • May 15, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining strength versus the US Dollar (USD) as better-than-anticipated domestic jobs data and lessening global trade tensions provide support. In April, Australia created 89,000 jobs—well above the predicted 20,000—while unemployment remained at 4.1%. This strong labor market performance, combined with the easing of US-China trade tensions and the removal of tariffs, has strengthened risk appetite among investors, underpinned demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie. Despite softening market expectations for interest rate reductions by both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6440 and could retest key levels of resistance if good momentum persists. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets currently anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower the cash rate to approximately 3.1% by the end of the year, with a 25-basis-point reduction most likely at the next policy meeting. Any variation from this might affect AUD performance. • Traders will watch closely for the next US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases for April, which might change sentiment around the US Dollar and affect AUD/USD movement. • The initial US-China tariff rollback deal is improving risk sentiment; further advances—or setbacks—have a real chance of influencing the Australian Dollar in a substantial way. • AUD/USD is reaching pivotal resistance at 0.6515. A sustained break above this level would serve to induce further advancement towards the seven-month high of 0.6687. Australian Dollar’s direction will depend on a number of crucial factors. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy decision is in sharp focus, as markets are pricing a 25-basis-point rate cut, although better domestic data might alter the bank’s tone. On the international front, de-escalating US-China trade tensions remain supportive of risk appetite, but any reversal has the potential to easily spoil AUD gains. Meanwhile, future US economic data such as Retail Sales and PPI levels may influence Federal Reserve rate expectations and put downward pressure on the US Dollar. Technically, AUD/USD is capped by resistance at around 0.6515; a firm breakout above this level may lead to further gains to 0.6687. Australian Dollar’s tone is still underpinned by robust job statistics and declining global trade tensions. Market attention now turns to the next RBA policy meeting and major US economic data. A break above 0.6515 would suggest further strength in AUD/USD. • Australia created 89,000 jobs in April, much more than the predicted 20,000, as the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. • AUD/USD pair retraced around 0.6440 amid solid employment data and risk-on appetite. • Global trade tensions relaxed with the US and China agreeing to reverse tariffs, boosting investor sentiment. • US Dollar Index (DXY) lost strength, trading at 100.90 levels as investors wait for Retail Sales and PPI data. • Wage Price Index in Australia increased 3.4% YoY in Q1 2025, above forecast, indicating wage growth recovery. • Markets now anticipate the RBA to reduce rates to 3.1% by the end of the year, although robust data could impact future actions. • Major resistance for AUD/USD is at 0.6515, with possible upside to 0.6687 if bullish momentum prevails. Australian Dollar is being supported by robust domestic economic indicators and strengthening global trade conditions. April’s employment report was marked by a staggering increase of 89,000 jobs, well surpassing forecasts and highlighting the strength of Australia’s labor market. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, following sustained stability in the employment sector. There were also positive developments in wage growth, with the Wage Price Index increasing 3.4% over the past year in the first quarter of 2025, rebounding from deceleration in earlier quarters. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Globally, alleviating US-China trade tensions have helped instill a better mood in the market, stimulating appetite for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar. An initial agreement to ease tariffs on both sides has abated fears of extended economic tensions, lifting world trade sentiment. At the same time, changing expectations regarding US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts are influencing investor mood, with markets waiting eagerly for further direction from future economic statistics and central bank announcements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is displaying bullish momentum, trading well above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately 0.6429. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still well above the neutral 50 threshold, which suggests persistent buying interest. Should the pair hold above near-term support levels, it may gather energy for a possible push towards past highs. Failure to stay above critical moving averages will, however, undermine the short-term outlook and invite more consolidation. FORECAST Australian Dollar stands to gain from continued strengthening of Australia’s economic fundamentals and relaxing global trade tensions. If domestic statistics continue to impress and risk appetite is high, the AUD/USD exchange rate is likely to test higher prices, possibly retesting levels encountered in late 2024. Continued improvement in wage growth and a firming labor market could further add to investor confidence, promoting a more vigorous rally in the near term. Even with upbeat sentiment, the Australian Dollar is exposed to threats from possible changes in global economic trends and monetary policy. Deterioration in US-China relations or weaker-than-anticipated economic news out of Australia or its key trading partners would dampen sentiment. Moreover, if the Reserve Bank of Australia hints at a more conservative rate-cut policy or US economic signals provoke a relief rally in the US Dollar, the AUD/USD pair may face downward pressure, testing major supports.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Plunges Below $3,300 Due to Trade Tensions and Resilient US Dollar

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  • April 26, 2025
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Gold prices plummeted below the $3,300 level as escalated trade tensions between the US and China, combined with a strong US Dollar, weighed down market sentiment. In spite of declining US Treasury yields and weaker DXY movements, bullion could not sustain its latest gains, falling more than 1.60% to about $3,294. Uncertainty increased after President Trump declined to roll back tariffs on China unless more concessions were made, going back on previous optimism. Simultaneously, weaker US consumer sentiment and a jittery economic outlook prior to important data releases — such as GDP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Nonfarm Payrolls — kept traders on their toes. Technically, Gold is still in an uptrend but stands at risk of further corrections if major support levels are breached. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold may test near-term support at $3,250; a breakdown can lead the way to $3,167 and the 50-day SMA of $3,041. • Traders will be keenly observing the US JOLTS report, Q1 GDP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and April’s Nonfarm Payrolls for new market guidance. • While the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in the next meeting, traders are factoring in 86 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year. • Market mood remains extremely sensitive to any fresh updates in the US-China trade negotiations, particularly after Trump’s recent tariff comments. Traders would need to watch Gold closely near the $3,250 support level, and a breakdown below it may trigger further declines toward $3,167 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,041. Focus will also be on significant US economic releases next week, such as the JOLTS report, Q1 GDP numbers, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and April’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which can have a substantial impact on market sentiment. On the monetary policy side, although the Federal Reserve is generally expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, markets continue to price in approximately 86 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025. Furthermore, US-China trade negotiations will continue to be a key driver for risk sentiment, after President Trump’s insistence on keeping tariffs in place without additional Chinese concessions. Gold traders closely monitor the $3,250 support level, with further losses likely if broken. Major US data such as GDP, ISM PMI, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be major drivers of market action next week. Trade tensions and Fed rate expectations will continue to be heavy-handed influences as well. •  Gold continues under pressure due to changing market sentiment amid US-China trade tensions. •   President Trump’s resolve on keeping tariffs without Chinese concessions has unnerved markets. •   US Dollar strength remains a drag on investor demand for Gold. •   Markets are gearing up for a hectic week as major US economic data releases, including Q1 GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls, are coming up. •  US consumer sentiment declined in April, reaching one of the lowest points in the post-1970s period. •   Even with declining US Treasury yields, Gold did not see substantial safe-haven demand. •   Federal Reserve policy expectations continue to be in the spotlight, with markets factoring in possible rate cuts later this year. Gold continues to be under pressure as market sentiment oscillates between optimism and caution, largely influenced by the continuing trade tensions between the United States and China. Hopes for de-escalation were smothered after President Trump indicated that tariffs on Chinese imports would not come down without additional concessions, backtracking on previous positive signals from Beijing. That change in tone has kept traders cautious and added to an overall risk-averse market backdrop as the markets approach a hectic week of economic data. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Over the next several days, investors will be paying attention to major US releases such as the JOLTS job openings, initial Q1 GDP reading, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and April’s Nonfarm Payrolls. These releases will be looked to as offering essential information on the condition of the US economy and guiding expectations around future Federal Reserve policy actions. Concurrently, general global market uncertainty and US-China developments will be influencing overall risk appetite as well. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The wider gold uptrend holds, yet the failure to maintain gains over the $3,300 mark indicates diminishing bullish momentum. The waning strength is mirrored in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where the evidence points toward declining control by the buyers on the short-term side. With further selling pressure, the next significant support level is at $3,250, and then lower levels towards $3,167 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of $3,041. On the positive side, a bounce above $3,300 may attract new buying interest, with near-term resistance at $3,386, and additional barriers at $3,400 and $3,450. FORECAST Gold is able to regain strength and retake the $3,300 level, it may pave the way for a new rally. The first strong resistance level to watch is $3,386, last month’s high set on April 22. A decisive penetration of this figure might tempt bulls to drive the prices to the psychological level at $3,400. Thereafter, potential targets are at $3,450 and $3,500 eventually, where firmer selling interest may become more active again. Renewed risk-off tone, soft US economic reports, or a pullback in the US Dollar would drive this upside action. Conversely, inability to sustain above $3,300 would leave Gold open to more weakness. Initial support is at $3,250, a price that if violated, may unleash a more extensive correction to $3,167. A breakout below this may even challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,041. Further US Dollar strength, supportive US economic statistics, or improving geopolitical tensions might put pressure on Gold and exert downward pressure on prices in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from Record Levels as US Trade Negotiations Ease Market Nerves

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  • April 17, 2025
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Gold prices pulled back from a new all-time high of $3,358, pulling back below the $3,300 level, as hopes for the United States’ success in trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico eased global market nerves somewhat. Nevertheless, the downside for gold is still limited, as persistent US-China trade tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand. The US Dollar also gained modest strength after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and indications of diplomatic progress in trade talks. Although investors took some profits, the overall gold outlook remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns and robust technical momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Although the recent correction from its all-time high of $3,358, gold’s overall trend is still bullish, underpinned by solid technical indicators such as the 14-day RSI remaining above 70 and EMAs pointing upwards. • The current dignity-driven confrontation between the US and China continues to offer a support level for gold prices, sustaining safe-haven demand in the face of global economic uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index recovered from close to a three-year low after trade talks with Japan and Mexico indicated advances, alleviating short-term concerns over global dislocation and weighing on gold. • Gold has firm resistance at the $3,400 level, while the 20-day EMA near $3,135.50 will serve as crucial support in case the correction further intensifies. Gold prices pulled back from a record high of $3,358 as progress in U.S. trade talks with Japan and Mexico slightly calmed global market jitters, prompting some investors to book profits. However, the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions continue to support the precious metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, limiting further downside. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar made a small comeback, assisted by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and declining trade uncertainty, which also dented gold’s near-term momentum. Even with the correction, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, underpinned by robust technicals and ongoing global economic risks. Gold prices eased from a new all-time high of $3,358 as the advance in U.S. trade talks with Japan and Mexico calmed global economic uncertainty. Yet, current U.S.-China tensions are still boosting safe-haven demand, keeping the overall bullish stance for gold in place. • Gold prices corrected from a new all-time high of $3,358, falling back below $3,300 on profit-booking. •  Unsolved US-China trade tensions continue to provide underlying support for gold as a safe-haven asset. •  The U.S. Dollar recovered modestly from a near three-year low, limiting gold’s upside in the near term. •  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments indicated optimism about U.S. economic stability, which strengthened the dollar. •  Technical indicators are still bullish, with the 14-day RSI still above 70 and all key EMAs pointing upwards. •  $3,135.50 as solid support (20-day EMA) and $3,400 as key resistance. Gold prices softened as hopes increased about the advancement of U.S. trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico. Encouraging news from U.S. President Trump on the continuation of talks eased global market uncertainty, leading some investors to divert attention away from safe-haven commodities such as gold. The alleviation of trade tensions has for the moment dulled fears about possible disruptions in the global economy. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView But even with this advance, the unresolved China-U.S. trade row remains a lurking presence in the background, keeping market sentiment in check. The prospect of a standoff more about political ego than commerce, however, poses a guarantee that gold continues to be a critical buffer in times of uncertainty for investors. The market continues to be waiting for further developments as global economic risks are yet to run their course. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in the robust bullish trajectory despite recent correcting from an all-time high at $3,358. Prices are still trending well above principal moving averages, with all the short-to-medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) rising – indicating prolonged demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still cruising above the level of 70, which implies that bull pressure is still firmly in place though some profit-booking at these high levels comes naturally. If the price continues its decline, the 20-day EMA at $3,135.50 is likely to serve as a strong support level, and on the upside, the $3,400 level is an important resistance barrier for any potential break. FORECAST Gold’s medium-term perspective is bullish, driven by ongoing global economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand, particularly as U.S.-China trade tensions persist. If positive momentum is regained, prices may retest the $3,300 level and target the psychological resistance of $3,400. Ongoing uncertainty regarding global trade relations, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies can continue to drive further rallies in gold prices. On the negative side, any serious breakthrough in U.S. trade negotiations — particularly if the U.S. and China resume talks — would soothe global market jitters, taking some heat off gold. As long as profit-taking continues and the U.S. Dollar gains strength, prices of gold may drift toward the 20-day EMA level of $3,135.50, the next support point of note. A break through this would invite further corrections towards the $3,100 level.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Falls Below 1.4100 Pre-US CPI Data Due to Weak Dollar and Pressure in Oil Market

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  • April 10, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair remains trading lower, falling below the 1.4100 level as the US Dollar continues to be under pressure prior to the eagerly awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Anticipation of a modest dip in both headline and core inflation has cooled USD demand, with markets rethinking the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut. The Canadian Dollar also has its own headwinds as weakening oil prices—brought about by rising US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about demand—bear down on the commodity-sensitive currency. Despite weakness in the USD, these countervailing forces are expected to cap the pair’s downside. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A softer-than-anticipated inflation figure may spur rumors of future Fed rate reductions, which could be a further drag on the US Dollar. •  As a significant Canadian export, falling crude prices due to worldwide demand worries and US-China trade tensions might cap CAD advances. •  Reaction to last week’s FOMC Meeting Minutes will continue to be pivotal, particularly about balancing inflation taming and economic slowdown. •  Any intensification of trade tensions might trigger risk-off sentiment, impacting oil prices and general currency market flows. The USD/CAD pair is down pressure below the 1.4100 level as investors wait for the US CPI inflation reading, which has the potential to influence expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. A lower inflation print would likely raise speculation on rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar further. But the Canadian Dollar is also coming under headwinds with declining oil prices amidst renewed concerns about demand triggered by rising US-China trade tensions. These counterforces—USD weakness against CAD vulnerability on sliding crude—are poised to create a tug-of-war in the pair’s direction, sustaining volatility in the near term. USD/CAD trades below 1.4100 as investors await key US CPI data, with expectations of a slight cooldown in inflation. While the US Dollar remains subdued, falling oil prices amid US-China trade tensions weigh on the Canadian Dollar, limiting further downside. • USD/CAD trades below 1.4100 for the second consecutive day amid US Dollar weakness. • March US CPI data are due, with inflation projected to slow to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. • Core CPI is predicted at 3%, down slightly from the last 3.1% reading. • FOMC minutes reveal concern over increasing inflation and decelerating growth, implying dovish Fed policy. • Market pricing indicates a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut next meeting, representing uncertainty. • WTI crude oil is close to $60.20, weighed down by demand concerns driven by US-China trade tensions. • Canadian Dollar is still susceptible to declining oil prices, topping gains against weakening USD. The USD/CAD currency pair is in the limelight as the market waits for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. This report is viewed closely because it gives information about inflation patterns within the United States, which greatly influence Federal Reserve actions. Mild cooling of inflation relative to the last month will be expected and may shape investors’ sentiments of future monetary policy actions. Concurrently, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes indicate that policymakers are closely walking a tightrope between inflation fears and risks of a decelerating economic growth. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In addition, external pressures like global trade tensions are fueling market uncertainty. Fresh tensions between the US and China have renewed concerns about global demand, especially in the energy markets. Since oil is a crucial component of the Canadian economy, these events are being closely watched. The movement of crude oil prices and their reaction to overall economic signals will remain a key consideration for the Canadian Dollar. With both the US and Canadian economies having unique issues, market players are watchful in anticipation of any major economic releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD continues to exhibit signs of weakness as it continues below the psychological level of 1.4100. The currency pair has dipped below short-term support levels, reflecting a bearish near-term bias. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate poor upside potential since they are resting close to neutral levels, and moving averages are beginning to tilt downwards, enhancing selling pressure. Should the pair be unable to hold its ground at or above 1.4100, however, it would begin to weaken to the next level of support around 1.4050, while a solid break higher at 1.4100 could set up the retesting of 1.4150 resistance. FORECAST In the event the US CPI for tomorrow surprises higher on the back of more solid-than-expected inflation, then the US Dollar will be pushed upwards by reinforcing the Fed’s hold-back from further interest rate cutting. A resurgence of USD strength could assist USD/CAD in rising back above the 1.4100 level, with possible levels of resistance at 1.4150 and 1.4200. Also, any indications of stability or rebound in oil prices would assist the Canadian Dollar, but if oil demand prospects are brightened by softening global tensions, the pair’s higher limit could be curtailed. Conversely, a weaker inflation print might revive hopes of Fed rate cuts, pulling the US Dollar down and further lowering USD/CAD. A fall below the current support at 1.4050 might result in a more pronounced pullback towards 1.4000 or even 1.3960. If oil prices remain low based on ongoing demand issues or lingering US-China trade tensions, the Canadian Dollar might depreciate even more, halting the descent of USD/CAD even if there is stress on the US Dollar.

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