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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

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  • June 27, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Float below $3,300 as Traders Look to US PCE Data with Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty Looming

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  • May 30, 2025
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Gold prices are kept in check below the $3,300 level as tame U.S. Dollar firmness puts pressure to the downside before the highly anticipated release of the U.S. PCE Price Index. Despite the dip, downside movement appears limited amid renewed trade tensions, ongoing geopolitical risks, and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A reinstated tariff ruling and uncertainty surrounding global conflict zones have kept investor sentiment cautious, lending support to the safe-haven metal. Though technical indicators imply further downside potential, the majority of traders are in waiting mode for new impetus from U.S. inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone is watching for the next U.S. inflation data release, which has the potential to have a meaningful impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations and near-term direction for the USD and gold. • Russia-Ukraine conflict developments and Middle East ceasefire negotiations still underpin safe-haven demand for gold, offering a potential defense against further losses. • Re-imposition of Trump’s tariffs and rumors of additional trade actions could inject pressure into the markets and indirectly support gold’s appeal in risk-off conditions. • Unclear signals from Fed officials regarding the timing and probability of interest rate reductions leave markets in suspense, rendering short-term gold direction dependent on upcoming data and comments. Investors should pay close attention to the publication of the U.S. PCE Price Index since it has the potential to dramatically alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and subsequently affect gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as the lack of progress in Middle East ceasefire talks and doubts over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, continue to provide support to gold’s safe-haven allure. Furthermore, the revival of trade policy uncertainty since the reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs has added additional market volatility, which has made gold a popular hedge. In contrast, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials underscore the significance of future economic releases in informing monetary policy, leaving traders nervous and price dynamics in gold very responsive to further developments. Gold traders are monitoring the next U.S. PCE Price Index closely for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty remain in favor of gold’s safe-haven status, limiting downside even with nascent USD firmness. •  Gold stays under $3,300 due to mild U.S. Dollar strength suppressing demand. •  Markets look to the U.S. PCE Price Index, which may frame rate-cut expectations at the Fed. •  Reinstalled Trump-style tariffs introduce trade uncertainty that favors safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe keep supporting gold’s demand. •  Fed officials are still divided, sending conflicting signals on upcoming rate action. •  Technical indicators indicate bearish momentum, and there could be downside towards $3,245–$3,200. •  Resistance is at $3,325–$3,350 and the breach above might unleash fresh buying interest. Gold prices continue to weaken as market participants wait for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be released, a core inflation measure that may have implications for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The information is likely to give more guidance on whether the Fed will continue with rate cuts in the second half of the year, a consideration that has made market players conservative. Although the U.S. Dollar has been mildly firmer, prospects of a more dovish Fed position in the months ahead still underpin interest in gold as a non-yielding asset generally. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides economic statistics, growing geopolitical tensions and reviving trade policy anxieties are keeping gold in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset. The latest imposition of tariffs by a U.S. federal appeals court, along with concurrent wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have contributed to worldwide uncertainty. These together with dovish comments by several Federal Reserve officials have been adding to a watch-and-wait mood in the market that has been upholding gold as a hedge against general macroeconomic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold comes up against near-term resistance in the $3,325–$3,326 area, which has already failed to breach on higher attempts. The inability to break above the $3,300 level indicates no strong bullish strength, and short-term indicators are starting to reflect renewed selling pressure. If the price continues to have trouble below important resistance levels, a downward move to the next support zones could be expected. Yet any such sustained break above the $3,325 ceiling may initiate fresh buying interest and potentially leave the way open for a retest of upper levels. FORECAST If the future U.S. PCE figures indicate slowing inflation, this may further support Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, weakening the U.S. Dollar and driving gold prices higher. In that case, gold could see fresh buying interest, with room to test levels higher than the $3,300 mark. A continued break past the $3,325–$3,350 resistance level could prompt short-covering and propel prices towards the $3,400 area, buoyed by safe-haven demand as geopolitical and trade tensions continue to hold sway. Conversely, in the event of PCE data surprise to the upside signifying sticky inflation, it might temper hopes of near-future Fed rate cuts and enhance the U.S. Dollar, putting fresh downward pressure on gold. In such a scenario, prices might fall further, with scope to test support levels at $3,280 and potentially carry losses up to the $3,245–$3,200 region. Further dollar strength or resolve on trade and geopolitical fronts would also diminish the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to the bearish risk.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Clings Above $3,000 Despite Pullback, Poised for Weekly Gain as Strong US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions Sustain Prices

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  • March 22, 2025
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Gold prices fell for the second day in a row on Friday, dropping to about $3,019 as investors took profits and the US Dollar gained strength. Gold is still poised for weekly gains, however, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the market. The strong position of Federal Reserve officials, with no hurry to lower interest rates in the face of economic uncertainty and the effect of President Trump’s trade policy, has also added strength to the Greenback. Rising tensions in Gaza have meanwhile contributed to market anxiety, sustaining gold’s safe-haven appeal despite momentum indicators pointing towards a possible short-term correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Short-term pullbacks notwithstanding, gold’s resilience in remaining above the psychological $3,000 level reflects underlying bullishness and further potential for the price to go higher if investors buy back. • The strengthening US Dollar and the dovish stance of Fed officials, who don’t see an immediate need to reduce interest rates, still depress gold prices short term. • Gaza violence and increasing geopolitical tensions may provide support to gold as a safe-haven asset, keeping investors in suspense. • The nearest support is at $3,020, then the key $3,000 and $2,954 levels. On the upside, a move above $3,050 may lead the way to the $3,100 Gold traders are keenly observing key factors that may determine price action in the next few days. In spite of recent profit-taking and the strength of the US Dollar, gold’s resilience to remain above the pivotal $3,000 level indicates sustained investor appetite. The Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to interest rate reductions and increasing US Treasury yields are pinning down bullion, but geopolitical tensions—most notably the renewed hostilities in Gaza—are sustaining gold’s safe-haven demand. Market participants will also be watching key technical levels, support around $3,020 and resistance at $3,050, which might dictate the direction of XAU/USD in the next session. Gold continues to hold up above the $3,000 level despite temporary profit-taking and a firmer US Dollar. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s hawkish tone remain at play and continue to affect market sentiment, with investors ready to watch out for key technical breakouts. • Gold prices fall for the second day in a row but stay above the $3,000 mark. • Gold is poised to record weekly gains despite the retreat, driven by market uncertainty. • US Dollar gains as investors react to Fed’s conservative approach to rate cuts. • Fed officials signal no hurry to loosen policy, citing economic uncertainty and Trump’s tariffs. • Geopolitical tensions increase as Israel renews attacks in Gaza, fueling safe-haven demand. • Technical perspective indicates short-term support at $3,020 and major resistance at $3,050. • Momentum indicators indicate a possible short-term pullback, but long-term trend is bullish. Gold prices have remained resilient this week, holding firm despite a temporary dip towards the close of the trading sessions. The market still struggles with a stronger US Dollar, fueled by cautious indications from Federal Reserve officials who have reaffirmed their policy of keeping interest rates unchanged in the face of economic uncertainties. With no imminent intention to loosen monetary policy, investors are closely watching how trade policies, particularly the effects of newly imposed tariffs, will influence the overall economic outlook in the next few months. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Grappling with market tensions are mounting geopolitical threats, especially in the Middle East. The recent restart of hostilities in Gaza after a two-month ceasefire has ratcheted up global uncertainty. Such events usually heighten demand for safe-haven assets such as gold since investors want insulation from possible worldwide instability. Despite short-term threats, long-term economic and geopolitical issues continue to underpin the role of gold in diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold still shows a widely bullish trend in spite of recent declines. The metal has managed to hold above the important psychological level of $3,000, reflecting strong underlying support. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) do, however, indicate a short-term loss of bullish momentum, with the index having fallen for the second day in a row. If selling pressure intensifies, gold may test lower support zones at $3,020 and major resistance at $3,050 , while a rebound above recent resistance could reignite upward momentum. Traders are closely watching these key levels to determine the next directional move. FORECAST Gold prices could see a fresh rally in the coming sessions. A sustained move above recent resistance levels may open the path toward higher targets, potentially revisiting the $3,050 zone and beyond. Sustained geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global trade policies, and any economic softening would further enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold. And on the Federal Reserve front, any change in tone to a dovish position could be the trigger for fresh bullion buying interest. Conversely, if profit-taking persists and the US Dollar stays firm, gold could experience more downside pressure. A breakdown below the $3,000 psychological level would instigate a more serious correction, sending prices down to the next support levels. Increasing US Treasury yields and ongoing hawkish messages by Fed officials could also hamper sentiment, inducing transitory losses in gold’s positive trend. Unless key support levels are broken decisively, however, the overall outlook should still remain positive in the medium term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dives to Three-Week Low in Face of Steeper USD and Fed Policy Sentiment Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have fallen to a three-week low, closer to the $2,850 level, after a steeper US Dollar and anticipation of the Federal Reserve extending its hawkish policy pushed it lower. While there has been a risk-off market mood as well as lower US Treasury bond yields, the precious metal persists in its bearish trend for the second session in a row. Investors are waiting with bated breath for the coming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation gauge that may shape the Fed’s interest rate view and dictate gold’s short-term direction. Technicals also paint a bearish picture, with more room for decline if support levels are broken. KEY LOOKOUTS • A generally firmer USD continues to weigh on gold prices as investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the face of ongoing inflation fears. • The release of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is likely to impact Fed interest rate decisions and may determine the direction of gold in the near future. • Gold has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which could mean an extended decline if major support levels near $2,800 hold firm. • Investors are wary of global economic risks, such as possible inflationary pressures from Trump’s planned tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and European Union imports. Gold prices continue to decline, hitting a three-week low of about $2,850 as a firmer US Dollar and the anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve dampen the market. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation indicator that may affect the Fed’s interest rate policy and, in turn, gold’s direction. Gold is still under selling pressure despite a risk-off mood and declining US Treasury yields. Technical indicators are signaling further weakness if major support levels, especially around $2,800, are broken. Moreover, market anxiety regarding possible inflationary impacts from Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and the European Union contributes to uncertainty in gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices declined to a three-week low around $2,850 due to a stronger USD and the anticipation of a hawkish Fed. Market participants are waiting for US PCE inflation data that could have implications for interest rates and gold’s direction. Technical indicators indicate more downside if support levels are breached. • XAU/USD declines around $2,850 as a stronger US Dollar weighs down on the market. • The US Dollar remains on the mend with expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. • Market participants look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for guidance on the Fed’s next step. • Policymakers focus on taming inflation, dampening expectations of rate cuts. • Gold falls below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating further losses if major support around $2,800 breaks. • In spite of market uncertainties, gold finds it difficult to attract safe-haven demand. • Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU can affect inflation and guide gold’s direction. Gold prices continue to be pressured due to a firming US Dollar and anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve depressing market sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is a key inflation indicator, is in the spotlight as market participants seek guidance on future interest rate action. As inflation fears continue, Fed policymakers have signaled a prudent stance towards cutting interest rates, supporting the Dollar’s strength. Moreover, recent evidence of steady US economic growth also makes the argument for maintaining interest rates high, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical and trade-related concerns contribute to the uncertainty. Investors are intently watching proposed tariffs by former US President Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, which can be inflationary in nature. These trade measures can influence global economic stability, shaping market sentiment for safe-haven assets. In the meanwhile, falling US Treasury bond yields and general risk-off market conditions have not gone far in favor of gold since traders are staying guarded before critical economic data and policy indications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has fallen beneath significant support points, suggesting potential extension of its corrective decline. The price has fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line of the rally from December through February, portending growing bearish momentum. Daily chart oscillators are establishing negative momentum, supporting the chance for further falls. If the sellers force the price down below the $2,855 level, the next major support is close to the $2,834 area, and then the 38.2% Fibonacci of $2,815-$2,810. A clear fall below the psychological $2,800 level could seal a bearish reversal. Conversely, a bounce above $2,867 might encounter resistance around the $2,885-$2,900 area, with continuous buying potentially revealing the all-time high of $2,956. FORECAST Gold may strengthen if future US economic releases, especially the PCE Price Index, indicate decelerating inflation, leading to hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve. A lower inflation reading can raise the chances of interest rate reductions, weakening the US Dollar and strengthening demand for gold as a safe-haven. Should gold recover the $2,867 resistance level, it may probe the $2,885-$2,900 zone, while a sustained breakout may propel it towards the $2,915 level. Stronger follow-through buying could take prices even closer to the lifetime high of $2,956 as buying interest picks up. Against the downside, gold will continue to be at risk if inflation does not recede and Fed officials continue to hint at a hawkish bias, underpinning the resilience of the US Dollar. A failure at levels above $2,855 would unleash a further bout of selling pressure that would push the price towards $2,834 support. A firm break beneath the $2,815-$2,810 zone would invite a slide toward the important psychological level of $2,800. If fear prevails, further losses look likely, that could push the price below $2,780, indicating an extended correction off recent highs.

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