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Commodities Gold

Gold Under Pressure as Dollar Strength and Yields Climb Before Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

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  • August 22, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to come under pressure for the second day in a row, down due to a climbing US Dollar and higher Treasury yields before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly awaited speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The gold bullion is floating in the vicinity of $3,325, still within its tight $3,320–$3,350 trading range, while investors wait for policy signals from Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech before his term expires in 2026. With Fed officials adopting a generally cautious and hawkish stance, markets have trimmed hopes of a September rate reduction, keeping bullion underpinned despite persistent geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia-Ukraine that still underpin safe-haven demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets look for cues on the Fed’s stance, with investors interested in assessing if Powell supports a data-dependent strategy or suggests easing. • Strong dollar and steep yields are the largest headwinds for Gold, limiting its upside potential. • Markets have reduced the probability of a September rate cut to about 70%, from near-certainty last week, making coming labor and inflation reports pivotal. • Russia-Ukraine uncertainty keeps on offering safe-haven support, capping deeper losses in Gold irrespective of bearish pressure. Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive session as a firmer US Dollar and higher Treasury yields sour the mood ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The valuable metal is stuck in the $3,320–$3,350 bandwidth, with investors holding back ahead of Powell’s comments, as they might alter expectations around future monetary policy action. The Fed is not likely to provide a September rate cut signal, but the market continues to be responsive to inflation and employment data, which will determine the next move from the central bank. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks associated with Russia-Ukraine tensions also continue to provide some safe-haven support, thus avoiding a steeper fall in bullion prices. Gold remains under pressure at $3,325 as a strong US Dollar and higher Treasury yields dictate in anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Markets look for policy signals from his words, while geopolitical risks provide some safe-haven support to bullion. • Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at around $3,325, down for a second consecutive day. • Bullion continues to be the main headwinds with strong US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. • Investors are looking forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at Jackson Hole, his final appearance before his 2026 term expires. • The markets now assign a 70% probability to a 25 bps rate decrease in September from almost certainty last week. • Recent hawkish comments by Fed officials have cooled expectations of aggressive easing. • Technical charts indicate Gold trading above crucial support at $3,330, with resistance set at $3,350. • Geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue to support safe-haven demand. Gold is muted as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. His words are likely to influence market mood on the Fed’s policy course, particularly in the face of conflicting economic messages in the US. While consumer spending is holding up, the labor market is slowing and inflation remains above target. Powell is expected to reassure markets by highlighting the Fed’s data-dependent approach over rushing to make changes right now, a diplomatic stance that has kept markets nervous. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Outside of the Fed, the larger geopolitical tensions backdrop remains shaping market mood. Continuing uncertainty on Russia-Ukraine peace discussions and the US move to take a step back from direct mediation remind of persistent threats that keep safe-haven Gold demand in check. With political pressure mounting on the Fed and global risks yet to be solved, investors remain on edge, looking for direction from policymakers while holding exposure to safe assets such as bullion. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is probing a critical support area around $3,330 that also represents the upper edge of a downtrend channel on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at around 44, just below the neutral 50 level, indicating waning momentum and a modestly bearish inclination. The MACD continues to trade below the zero line as well as the signal line, further supporting a lack of bullish enthusiasm. A decisive fall below $3,330 would provide a route for the downtrend to continue towards $3,310 and $3,300, whereas a bounce above $3,350 on the back of the 100-period SMA would make the argument for the bounce back towards $3,370 and possibly $3,400 more appealing. FORECAST If Gold can hold above the $3,330 support and gain traction, a bounce back to the $3,350 resistance level is imminent. A consistent push higher, supported by positive signals from Powell’s address or new geopolitical risks, could set the stage for testing $3,370 again. If the buying pressure intensifies, the next target on the upside would be in the vicinity of $3,400, providing the bulls with a stronger technical grip to rise further. On the other hand, a decisive fall through the $3,330 level will leave the metal vulnerable to further losses, with immediate support at $3,310 and then at $3,300. A continued fall below these levels would increase bear pressure, which could lead to a change in market sentiment and open the way for a larger retracement. Under such circumstances, Gold’s safe-haven demand could come under pressure unless fresh support comes from renewed geopolitical tensions or softer US data.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Back from Two-Month Highs Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty over Fed Policy

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  • June 16, 2025
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Gold prices fell back slightly after hitting almost a two-month high during the Asian session, as a upbeat risk appetite in equity markets took its toll on the safe-haven commodity. In spite of the decline, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran, still provide support for gold. Also, market participants are holding back in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to give new guidance on interest-rate reductions with evidence of easing U.S. inflation. As a moderate gain in the U.S. dollar places a limit on further advancement, overall gold’s downside is circumscribed, technicals indicating that any slide will offer new buying opportunities. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate prognosis, and this may have a strong impact on the U.S. dollar as well as gold prices. • The Israeli-Iran conflict persists in offering safe-haven support to gold amidst general market uncertainty. • Any major movement in the USD, particularly around its recent lows, could have a direct bearing on direction of gold prices. • Major resistance is at the $3,452-$3,500 level, and support around $3,400 and $3,360 levels of the uptrend channel. Gold prices have softened slightly after hitting a two-month high, weighed down by the positive sentiment in Asian equities. Nevertheless, the metal still finds support in heightening Middle Eastern tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors are also eyeing closely the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may give new signals about future interest rate cuts as there were signs of slowing U.S. inflation. Although the U.S. dollar’s modest recovery has limited some of gold’s advances, the downside is still constrained as traders remain jittery in anticipation of major economic and geopolitical events. Gold prices drop back from two-month high as Asian stocks climb, but safe-haven buying continues amidst tensions in the Middle East. FOMC meeting awaited for direction on prospective U.S. interest rate cuts, capping the downside for gold. • Gold prices decline slightly after reaching a two-month high in Asian trading. • Encouraging risk appetite in the equity markets suppresses the safe-haven demand for gold. • Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to underpin gold prices. • Traders tread carefully in anticipation of next week’s FOMC policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to leave the rates unchanged but is likely to indicate future cuts as inflation weakens. • The U.S. dollar gets a modest boost, capping gold’s near-term upside. • Key levels are resistance at $3,452-$3,500 and support at $3,400-$3,360. Gold prices are seeing mild pressure after they hit their highest level in almost two months. The positive mood in the Asian equity markets has somewhat reduced the allure of the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel remains a driving force for investor demand for safer assets. The military skirmishes between the two countries have intensified, with both sides firing at each other, contributing to global market anxiety and sustaining gold in general support. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, attention is turning to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold but investors are seeking clues over potential future cuts after inflation slowed and the economy was shown to have pockets of weakness. The Fed’s guidance will be influential in setting up expectations for the rest of the year, and any dovish sentiments can further impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the $3,400 threshold recently, indicating bullish vigor underpinned by the development of a rising trend channel on short-term charts. Bulls are still in control according to positive oscillators on the daily chart, and resistance is found at the $3,452-$3,453 levels. A distinct breakout above this level could potentially lead to a retest of the all-time high around the $3,500 psychological level. On the other hand, any pullback would likely find firm support around $3,400, and a sustained fall below $3,360 would invalidate the bullish setup, and it could switch the near-term bias towards sellers. FORECAST Should gold be able to break over the recent high in the $3,452-$3,453 region, it would potentially set the stage for a challenge of the psychological $3,500 mark. A convincing move above this obstacle might invite new buying interest and drive prices still higher, potentially continuing the current bullish trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions or a dovish Federal Reserve comment could serve as catalysts for sustained upside momentum. On the negative side, nearest support is seen at the $3,400 level, and subsequent weakness could push gold down towards the $3,360 zone, which is the lower end of the current uptrend channel. A move below this level with some conviction would change market sentiment and attract more selling pressure, potentially creating a more severe correction in the near term.

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