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USD/CHF Remains Near 0.7950 as Swiss Franc Strengthens with Rate Pause Speculation and Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 10, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair remains steady near 0.7950 in Thursday’s European session after bouncing back from two consecutive losses. Further improvement, however, seems to be restricted with the Swiss Franc strengthening on dwindling hopes for more rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The latest increase in Switzerland’s CPI returned inflation into the SNB’s 0–2% target band, allowing analysts to forecast a rate hold until 2026. In the meantime, safe-haven appetite for the CHF is increasing as well, driven by increasing global trade tensions following former President Trump’s suggested tariffs. On the other hand, the US Dollar is pressured by dovish Federal Reserve cues and intensifying economic uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets generally foresee the Swiss National Bank maintaining interest rates unchanged at 0% in September, with no additional cuts expected as inflation comes back into play. • Escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly in the wake of Trump’s tariff suggestions, are driving demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. • Policy guidance from the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, as reflected in the latest FOMC Minutes, weighing on the US Dollar. • US Initial Jobless Claims will be watched closely by traders for additional cues on the status of the labor market and possible Fed responses. USD/CHF pair trades around 0.7950, holding onto recent gains but resisting pressures in the face of rising demand for the Swiss Franc. The currency enjoys support through renewed optimism over Switzerland’s inflation outlook as June’s CPI numbers reversed an earlier drop and returned inflation into the SNB’s target zone. Consequently, the Swiss National Bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0%, lowering the odds of additional rate reductions. In contrast, overall risk sentiment supports safe-haven flows into the Franc, especially given heightened geopolitical threats and renewed tariff threats from former President Trump that fuel worries over global growth. The US Dollar, however, is pressured by uncertainty as to what the next move will be from the Fed, as captured in the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes. USD/CHF stays firm at around 0.7950 but has limited upside due to the strengthening Swiss Franc. Rebounding Swiss inflation and safe-haven demand underpin the CHF, while uncertainty from Fed policy burdens the US Dollar. • USD/CHF is around 0.7950, rebounding from recent falls but showing little upside enthusiasm. • Swiss CPI increased 0.1% YoY in June, reversing last month’s fall and remaining within the SNB’s 0–2% target range. • SNB set to maintain rates at 0% in September with no additional cuts anticipated until 2026. • CHF safe-haven demand grows as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue. • Trump imposes fresh tariffs, 50% on Brazil and 30% on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka. • FOMC Minutes indicate uncertainty regarding the Fed’s policy direction and inflation expectations. • US Dollar Index (DXY) declines, trading at around 97.30, weighed down by Fed uncertainty and increasing trade risks. The USD/CHF currency pair is making waves as global economic and geopolitical considerations influence market sentiment. The Swiss Franc is experiencing renewed strength as a result of better local inflation numbers, with the June CPI increasing 0.1% year-on-year. The move has pushed inflation back into the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target band, leading analysts to believe that the monetary policy adjustments will be on hold for an extended period. Consequently, hopes of additional interest rate cuts have eased, further boosting confidence in the Swiss economy and currency. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, overall uncertainty keeps investor appetite for traditional safe-havens such as the Swiss Franc strong. Newly proposed tariffs by former President Donald Trump on some countries have revived concerns of a worldwide trade deceleration. This has further weighed on the US Dollar, particularly with the policy stance of the Federal Reserve still uncertain. The most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes show disagreement among policymakers over inflation concerns and upcoming rate decisions, which keeps the market wary of the USD’s short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating around the 0.7950 mark following a brief recovery from fresh lows. The pair has key resistance around the 0.7980–0.8000 mark, where selling can come in if the upward momentum loses its strength. Support comes in at initial levels around the 0.7900 area, followed by more robust support near 0.7870. Momentum indicators such as RSI indicate neutral directions, and range-bound movement in the near term unless there is a clear breakout or breakdown. FORECAST Should bullish sentiment resume, USD/CHF may try to break above the 0.7980–0.8000 resistance area. A breakout above this level may set the stage for a retest of the 0.8050 level, particularly if future US economic data surprises higher or if risk sentiment swings towards the US Dollar. Any comments from Fed officials that could be seen as hawkish or better-than-expected labor market data could also feed the upside. On the negative side, a breakdown below 0.7950 may result in a further downfall towards the 0.7900 psychological level. A break below this support may invoke some more selling, which may drive the pair down to 0.7870 or even 0.7830. Deteriorating US data, rising safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, or rising geopolitical tensions may drive the bearish pressure towards the pair.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3700 as Markets Wait for Critical US PCE Inflation Report

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  • June 27, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair holds a strong position above the level of 1.3700 in Friday’s Asian trading session, quote near 1.3735 as the Pound is supported by market sentiment over a weakening US Dollar. The Greenback is still under selling pressure in light of speculation surrounding the future autonomy of the Federal Reserve, particularly following the suggestion of former President Donald Trump of making a premature choice for the next Fed Chair, building anticipation of more rapid-than-expected US rate cuts. Also, less than impressive US GDP numbers, highlighting a deeper-than-projected 0.5% decline in Q1, have further hampered the USD. While the Pound is supported, dovish Bank of England signals can cap the upside for GBP/USD, as investors look ahead to the coming US PCE inflation data for clearer guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • An important guide for future Fed policy; better-than-expected data could underpin the USD, with poor data underpinning rate cut chances. • Trump’s words on selecting the next Fed Chair could impact USD sentiment and investor confidence in the independence of the Fed. • The deeper-than-anticipated 0.5% Q1 GDP drop reinforces worries regarding the strength of the US economy, pushing down the Greenback. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on a weakening labor market and possible rate reductions could cap gains in the Pound. GBP/USD currency pair is trading on a higher ground above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by a weakening US Dollar due to increasing fears about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and increasing prospects of premature rate cuts. Remarks made by former President Donald Trump regarding choosing the next Fed Chair shortly have created heightened speculation regarding the Fed’s policy direction, further bearing down on the Greenback. At the same time, a deeper-than-anticipated US GDP contraction has provided further pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the potential upside for the Pound can be limited by the dovish stance of the Bank of England as evidence of a decelerating UK labor market instills prudence in investors. The spotlight now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, which may inject some fresh signals into the direction of the pair. GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3700 as the weaker US Dollar, fueled by Fed uncertainty and weak economic data, dominates. Market attention now turns to the US PCE inflation figure, which may dictate expectations of future Fed policy actions. • GBP/USD at 1.3735, remaining positive territory in Friday morning Asian trading. • US Dollar loses ground amidst fears of the Fed’s autonomy and leadership change. • Trump’s comments on selecting a new Fed Chair stoke market speculation regarding prior rate reductions. • US GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, which was worse than forecast -0.2%, further depressing the USD. • BoE leaves interest rates steady at 4.25%, but dovish remarks suggest future reductions. • UK labor market is weakening, adding to caution over the Pound’s upside. • Friday’s US PCE inflation reading may propel the next major movement in GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is drawing increasing attention as overall market mood continues to support the Pound versus the US Dollar. Increased doubts regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy have been at the forefront after previous President Donald Trump expressed that he might name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell earlier than anticipated. This has put uncertainty on the market, with investors keenly observing how this could impact future monetary policy direction. To this view was added the recent US GDP data that recorded a sharper-than-projected decline, which is causing worry over the overall state of the US economy. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView For their part, policymakers at the Bank of England have taken a very dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey last week spoke about evidence of a softening labor market and hinted at the possibility of the trend of declining interest rates persisting. While the central bank left rates unchanged at its last meeting, there was internal dissent with three of the nine members voting to cut the rate. These contradictory signals on both sides of the Atlantic are maintaining investors wary, with most waiting for Friday’s US PCE inflation data release for more explicit policy guidance ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a bullish tone as it trades well above the 1.3700 psychological support level, hinting at continuous buying demand. The duo is comfortably supported by an ascending short-term trendline, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in the top half of their scale, reflecting strength in the rise. A break above the near-term resistance around 1.3750 could pave the way for further upside towards the 1.3800 area. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3700 could indicate waning momentum and bring in the next support zone around 1.3650. FORECAST If the US PCE inflation data later this week turns out to be softer-than-anticipated, it would add strength to market expectations of premature Federal Reserve rate cuts and further weaken the US Dollar. This would be likely to find support for sustained GB/USD upside, particularly if UK economy sentiment is relatively robust. A firm push past the 1.3750 resistance level may take the pair towards 1.3800 and beyond, as bulls gain strength on the back of softer US economic data and political turmoil around the Fed’s next leadership. Conversely, if the US PCE data surprises positively, it will stymie rate cut hopes, and could lend near-term support to the US Dollar. This could result in a pullback in GBP/USD, particularly if dovish comments from the Bank of England remain a drag on the Pound. A fall below the 1.3700 support level could reveal more downside to 1.3650 or even 1.3600, especially if risk appetite turns defensive or better US data brings renewed confidence in the Greenback.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Reaches Weekly Highs on USD Strength, But Increases Might Be Limited in the Face of Important Economic Releases and FOMC Minutes

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  • May 28, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair has continued to recover for a third straight day, rising to a new weekly high at the 1.3840 level due to slight US Dollar appreciation after robust US economic reports. Yet, still lingering over the US fiscal horizon and increasing hopes of Fed rate reductions in 2025 might cap further gains. On top of this, traders are being cautious before the FOMC meeting minutes and major economic announcements, such as US GDP, PCE statistics, and Canada’s monthly GDP. Though higher crude oil prices and firmer Canadian inflation statistics might underpin the Loonie, a conclusive trend might only be seen with continued follow-through buying. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Traders will be keeping a close eye on the minutes for insight into the Fed’s interest rate outlook, which may determine USD sentiment and near-term price action. •  The coming Prelim Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index releases will be pivotal in influencing expectations for future Fed policy action and shaping USD demand. •  Canada’s monthly GDP and variations in crude oil—Canada’s major export—will be crucial in deciding CAD strength. •  Continuous worries over the US fiscal health can keep the USD under pressure, keeping gains in the USD/CAD pair in check even with positive information. USD/CAD pair trades at weekly highs, market players are closely eyeing a number of crucial factors that can decide its next direction. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes is eagerly awaited, as investors want to know the Fed’s rate-cut path. Along with that, the next US economic data releases—specifically the preliminary Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index—will be crucial in deciding the momentum of the USD. On the Canadian front, more-than-anticipated core inflation and the next monthly print of GDP, along with crude oil price fluctuations, may provide the Loonie with support. Also, ongoing worries regarding the US fiscal horizon could still limit the greenback’s appreciation, contributing to the pair’s short-term ambiguity. Traders are looking to the FOMC meeting minutes and leading US data such as Q1 GDP and PCE for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. On the Canadian front, firmer inflation and coming GDP prints, as well as oil price action, may underpin the Loonie. US fiscal issues may also cap additional USD gain. • USD/CAD is trading around 1.3840, a third consecutive day of rising gains and a new weekly high. • Positive US economic data has propped up the USD, alleviating recession concerns and boosting the DXY. • FOMC meeting minutes are expected for some clarity on the Fed’s rate-cutting outlook in 2025. • US fiscal issues and dovish Fed expectations could cap further gains for the USD. • Prelim US Q1 GDP and PCE Index figures may have a strong bearing on the direction of the USD this week. • Warmer Canadian core inflation has taken away some possibility of a June BoC rate cut, supporting CAD strength. • Crude oil price action and Canadian monthly GDP will be major drivers for the Loonie. The USD/CAD pair is still in the spotlight this week as a number of significant economic events on both sides of the border continue to happen. The US Dollar is finding support from some recent encouraging economic data, which has helped to alleviate some recession fears and lift sentiment in the markets. While investor attention is firmly focused on the upcoming release of FOMC meeting minutes, which should give more definitive direction on future interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, persistent worries about the US fiscal picture are causing volatility and may affect the overall demand for the USD in the near future. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Canada, better-than-anticipated core inflation readings have caused the market expectations for potential interest rate reductions by the Bank of Canada to change. This, along with higher crude oil prices, has supported the Canadian Dollar beneath. In the coming week, the release of Canada’s monthly GDP report will be under keen observation for additional evidence of economic strength. Along with the important US releases of Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index, these are the elements most likely to determine the market mood towards the USD/CAD currency pair for the rest of the week. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has continued its recovery from the recent low around the 1.3685 area, with the pair now sitting near the 1.3840 resistance area. This area represents a significant barrier, and a breakout above it can be a signal of bullish continuation in the short term. Still, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are nearing overbought levels on the daily chart, which means buyers might get tired if the pair is unable to break higher convincingly. On the bearish side, near-term support is around the 1.3780 level, followed by the 1.3725-1.3700 area, which would serve as a cushion if the pair is subject to selling pressure. FORECAST If the bullish trend remains and USD/CAD decisively breaks above the 1.3840 resistance zone, then the pair may target the next levels on the upside at 1.3880 and possibly 1.3915. More robust US economic data and a hawkish interpretation of FOMC meeting minutes will fuel additional support for the USD to drive the pair further up. Moreover, any backtracking in crude oil prices or softer-than-anticipated Canadian GDP figures might soften the Canadian Dollar, providing more space for further upsides. Alternatively, a failure to sustain above the 1.3840 threshold might spark a short-term correction, with near-term support around the 1.3780 region. A more severe pullback can also challenge the 1.3725–1.3700 support level, particularly if US data is disappointing or if the FOMC minutes suggest a more dovish policy. Some strong Canadian economic data or a continuation of the oil price increase can also reinforce the Loonie and push the pair down towards a revisit of the recent low around 1.3685.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Clings to Muted Levels Below 1.3950 as Complacent US Inflation and Trade Sentiment Command Market Mood

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  • May 14, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair continues to hold low below the 1.3950 level, pressured by a softer US Dollar in the wake of lower-than-anticipated US CPI releases that has rekindled speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts towards the end of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to about 100.15, as geopolitical trade tensions introduce another degree of uncertainty, with Canada nudging to eliminate Trump-era tariffs before any talks with the US. On the other hand, declining oil prices, fueled by increasing US crude inventories, are exerting gentle pressure on the Canadian Dollar. Traders now wait for critical US economic data and statements from Fed Chair Powell for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Thursday’s release of April’s PPI, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims will be keenly observed for evidence of inflationary trends and consumer demand, shaping USD sentiment. • Market players will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech closely for any clues on the upcoming interest rate path, especially with growing expectations of possible rate cuts. • Continued attempts by Canada to phase out Trump-era tariffs have the potential to influence future trade negotiations and influence CAD strength based on progress and US reactions. • As a large oil producer, Canada’s currency is still exposed to crude oil price moves; recent inventory numbers indicating growing US stockpiles potentially continue to put pressure on WTI prices and negatively affect the CAD. Markets are presently centered on some major events that may dictate the USD/CAD direction in the short term. High-impact US releases, such as April’s Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims, will provide new insights into the condition of the US economy and inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week is also under the limelight, with investors looking for clarity on the central bank’s policy stance as expectations of rate cuts grow. Geopolitically, Canada’s efforts to scrap Trump-era tariffs bring an element of uncertainty, which could impact future trade flows and the Canadian Dollar. Crude oil prices are also a key driver, with increasing US inventories bearing down on WTI and Markets are looking to important US economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments for direction on future rate action in the face of growing rate cut expectations. Trade tensions between the US and Canada, as well as declining oil prices, put additional pressure on the Canadian Dollar and USD/CAD forecast. •  USD/CAD is unchanged around 1.3950, trading below the 200-day EMA with ongoing pressure on the US Dollar. • Downside US CPI numbers have boosted the chances of rate cuts from the Fed, weakening the USD and taking the DXY down to near 100.15. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today is eagerly awaited for any policy cues on the future interest rate trajectory. • Thursday’s US releases – PPI, Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims – may cause short-term USD/CAD volatility. • Canada’s efforts to end Trump-era tariffs have revived trade worries, further complicating the CAD. • WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $62.93, burdened by an unexpected build in US crude stocks, weakening the oil-correlated CAD. • Cautious sentiment in the market, with economic indicators and geopolitical tensions set to decide the next direction of the pair. USD/CAD currency pair is now driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical forces that are directing investor sentiment. Recent United States inflation numbers have rekindled debates surrounding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, with markets speculating that interest rate cuts may be back on the agenda this year. This change in expectations is affecting confidence in the US Dollar, making the tone for currency markets to be cautious. In the meantime, focus is also shifting to future US economic data releases and a planned speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, both of which are likely to provide more insight into the direction of Fed policy. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitically, trade relations between the United States and Canada are again in the spotlight. Canada has said that the priority in any renewed negotiations with the US would be to have tariffs imposed under the Trump administration repealed. The latest comes at a time when world trade patterns remain fragile, and any improvement or reversal in the talks could weigh on the larger Canadian economic picture. In addition, price volatility in oil continues to exert a backburner influence on the Canadian Dollar, as the nation is such a major exporter of crude. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is having difficulty getting traction as it remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an important indicator which is commonly regarded as a long-term trend indicator. The fact that the pair has failed to breach above this level implies sustained bearish pressure, and buyers have hesitated in the 1.3950 resistance area. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also point towards a neutral to mildly bearish bias, reflecting limited upside power. Unless the pair closes decisively above the 200-day EMA, the ongoing range-bound action is likely to continue, with levels around 1.3880 gaining prominence in case of fresh selling. FORECAST If future US economic statistics surprise to the upside—like higher-than-anticipated retail sales or producer price inflation—it may reactivate demand for the US Dollar, providing support to USD/CAD. A dovish-sounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also propel expectations of postponed rate cuts, perhaps sending the pair above the 1.3950 resistance. In this situation, a prolonged breach above the 200-day EMA may initiate further upside towards the psychological 1.4000 level and above, particularly if crude oil prices continue to be soft, softening the Canadian Dollar. On the other hand, in case of disappointing US data or if Powell hints at a dovish policy approach, interest rate cut hopes might gain strength, increasing pressure on the US Dollar once again. This may lead to a fall in USD/CAD, particularly if oil prices come back and buoy the Canadian Dollar. A fall below significant support levels near 1.3880 may cause the pair

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Resists Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Hike Bets; USD/JPY Fails Below 140

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  • April 22, 2025
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The Japanese Yen strengthened against the US Dollar on Tuesday, fueled by safe-haven demand due to ongoing global trade tensions and increasingly expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike later in 2025. The USD/JPY pair tried to bounce off levels below 140, the bullish bias on the Yen intact as geopolitical uncertainty and differential monetary policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed continue to place pressure on the Dollar. Market sentiment was further rattled by concerns over the Fed’s independence following fresh criticism from former President Donald Trump, keeping USD gains limited. Investors now await key US economic data and global PMI releases for clearer market direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again in 2025 is expected to keep the Japanese Yen supported in the near term. • Uncertainty regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, stoked by political pressure and rate cut speculation in the markets, continues to influence the US Dollar. • Investors are monitoring progress in the latest US-Japan tariff negotiations, particularly comments by influential officials and possible implications for currency flows. • The Richmond Manufacturing Index and world flash PMIs should deliver new insights into economic well-being, driving near-term USD/JPY price action. Japanese Yen remains in focus as investors weigh safe-haven demand against shifting central bank policies and global trade tensions. Despite a modest intraday pullback, the Yen’s strength is underpinned by rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in 2025, marking a significant divergence from the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate-cutting path. While this, in turn, is being affected by political uncertainty in the U.S. — fueled by renewed skepticism about the independence of the Fed and continuing trade negotiations — the recovery of the Dollar remains curbed. The market now expects major U.S. economic releases and world PMI reading, which should provide clearer guidance for the USD/JPY pair in upcoming sessions. Japanese Yen remains strong as safe-haven demand and expectations of BoJ rate hikes provide support against a softer US Dollar. Uncertainty surrounding US-Japan trade talks and skepticism regarding the Fed’s policy framework remain weighing factors on sentiment. Investors now look to leading economic indicators for new direction on USD/JPY action. • The Yen remains in demand with global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty capping its losses versus the US Dollar. • Speculation in the markets for a Bank of Japan rate increase in 2025 is contributing to the bullishness in the Yen. • The pair rebounded more than 40 pips from around the pivotal 140.00 psychological level but failed to maintain firmness amidst bearish sentiment in the USD. • New political attacks on the Federal Reserve, such as threats against its autonomy, have maintained the Dollar on defensive levels close to multi-year lows. •  Japanese and American official quotes underpin the subtlety in current tariff negotiations, holding back investors. •  USD/JPY encounters strong resistance at 141.65-141.60 and has the vital support zones at 140.45 and 140.00. •  Upcoming events such as Richmond Manufacturing Index and global flash PMIs are to determine USD/JPY’s next decisive movement. Japanese Yen continues to find support in its safe-haven demand, with continuing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks holding investor sentiment in check. Market observers continue to be focused on the status of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, especially after Japanese officials noted the intricacy involved in securing an agreement given touchy topics such as tariffs on autos and agriculture. As the talks proceed, the Yen will probably continue to be a favored destination for investors seeking stability amid uncertain times. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Substantiating the Yen’s support is also the increasing market perception that the Bank of Japan might hike interest rates in 2025, a significant reversal after years of extremely accommodative monetary policy. Conversely, the U.S. Dollar is under siege as political uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and conflicting economic signals create doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. This policy difference between the United States and Japan remains to influence currency market dynamics and reflects the cautious sentiment among traders. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair indicates signs of stabilization following a bounce back from the sub-140.00 psychological level, which has now become a significant support point. The 140.45 area, where the pair had recently established a multi-month low, is likely to provide initial downside cushioning. But the general bearish tone is still in place as far as the pair remains below the 141.60–141.65 resistance area — an important horizontal level that had served as support. A break above this region on a sustained basis may initiate a short-covering rally, paving the way for additional advances to the 142.00 and 142.35 resistance areas. To its detriment, a break below 140.45 could leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, potentially testing the yearly swing low around the 139.60–139.55 area. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above the 140.45 support level and accumulates sufficient bullish strength, it may try to retest the immediate resistance in the 141.60–141.65 area. A decisive break and sustained strength above this area can pave the way for a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the psychological 142.00 mark. Additional bullish extension may drive the pair to test the next major hurdle around the 142.35–142.40 area, where sellers are likely to reappear. Conversely, however, if the USD/JPY pair is unable to hold its ground above the 140.45 level, bear pressure may strengthen, pulling the pair back towards the important 140.00 psychological level. A clean break beneath this support level would most probably speed up the downside move, targeting the 2024 yearly swing low at the 139.60–139.55 region. A break below this level may warn of a deeper bear trend and possibly trigger further selling in the near term.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.0950 as Fed Decision Approaches Amid Strength in Dollar and Eurozone Trends

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  • March 19, 2025
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The EUR/USD crossed below the level of 1.0950 during Wednesday morning’s Asian trading, staying at around 1.0935 as market participants take a guarded approach ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate determination. The U.S. Dollar received mild lift from more solid industrial production, contributing to traders’ expectation amid the Fed’s revised rate guidance and economic report. Although the central bank is expected to leave interest rates on hold, the press conference and dot-plot that accompany it could provide key policy guidance. Separately, a large spending budget passed by Germany’s parliament could support the Euro, indicating increased investment activity in the Eurozone’s largest economy. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch for the Fed’s rate move and economic forecasts, which will determine the tone of USD movement going forward. • Robust US industrial production figures support the Dollar; additional strength could put pressure on EUR/USD below significant support levels. • Bundestag approval of a significant spending increase could underpin the Euro and restore investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. • Traders are cautious ahead of Fed commentary; increased volatility anticipated after the decision, affecting short-term EUR/USD direction. As the EUR/USD currency pair declines below 1.0950 in anticipation of the highly expected Federal Reserve interest rate decision, market players are keenly observing major events that may influence the near-term direction. The US Dollar has strengthened after positive industrial production figures, increasing hopes for a more aggressive Fed policy. Investors will closely monitor the Fed’s revised economic forecasts and the dot-plot, which may provide key information on the rate path ahead. In the meantime, Germany’s approval of a huge spending budget brings a possible Euro boost, signaling fresh fiscal support for the Eurozone’s biggest economy. Overall, sentiment is still wary, with volatility set to spike after the Fed announcement. EUR/USD falls below 1.0950 as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to make its interest rate decision and revise its economic forecasts. The stronger US Dollar and Germany’s recently approved budget plan are significant drivers of the pair’s movement. Volatility is likely to increase after the Fed announcement. • EUR/USD falls to about 1.0935 during Wednesday’s Asian session, falling below the 1.0950 mark. • Investors stay on guard in anticipation of the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement and economic forecasts later today. • The Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot-plot and press conference can give hints of future policy directions. • US Dollar appreciates slight strength as underpinned by better-than-expected US industrial production data for February (+0.7% MoM). • Germany’s parliament sanctioned a big spending spree, a sign of possible economic recovery in the Eurozone’s biggest economy. • Market sentiment remains divided, with investors in wait-and-watch mode following the Fed announcement. • Greater volatility anticipated in EUR/USD in the wake of the Fed verdict and reports on inflation projections. The foreign exchange market is in wait-and-watch mode with international investors awaiting the coming interest rate verdict of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Though the central bank is mostly expected to leave interest rates as they are, everyone is looking forward to the press conference and new economic projections for clues on the course of future monetary policy. The latest release of robust industrial production numbers in the U.S. has contributed to the expectation, signaling strength in the economy and adding to further interest in the central bank’s inflation and growth outlook. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, European developments have ushered in a tide of optimism, as Germany’s parliament passed a big-ticket spending plan designed to spur investment. The action is likely to underpin economic recovery efforts in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and potentially bolster market confidence in the region’s growth prospects. With traders waiting on the sidelines for key policy signals, the overall market tone is set by the interplay between U.S. economic vigor and Europe’s revived fiscal efforts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is picking up signs of mild weakness following its fall below the 1.0950 level, reflecting cautious market sentiment pre-Fed decision. The pair is now trading close to 1.0935, with near-term support at the 1.0900 psychological level. A break through this region may pave the way for further bear pressure. On the higher side, resistance is expected to be encountered in the 1.0975–1.1000 area, where sellers are likely to re-enter. Overall, the price action indicates a consolidation period, with investors waiting for a clear direction of breakout after major economic indicators from the U.S. Federal Reserve. FORECAST If the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its policy statement and economic forecasts neutral or dovish, it may cap further gains in the U.S. Dollar. In this context, the Euro could find footing, particularly with Germany’s freshly approved budget plan set to fuel economic sentiment in the Eurozone. Better fiscal prospects in Europe could provide a supportive environment for the EUR/USD pair to move higher if global risk appetite also improves. Conversely, if the Fed hints at a more aggressive policy—i.e., the likelihood of rate hikes or a less aggressive sequence of easing—then the U.S. Dollar will likely pick up even more steam. This will potentially put downward pressure on the Euro, sending EUR/USD lower over the short run. Also, if future Eurozone data does not indicate a robust recovery in spite of Germany’s budget stimulus, market faith in the Euro will further deteriorate, exacerbating the downside risk.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Remains Resilient Amid Trade Tensions and Political Uncertainty in Canada

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  • March 10, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair remains strong around the 1.4350 level, indicating an upside bias in the face of rising trade tensions and increasing political uncertainty in Canada. The Canadian Dollar is under pressure after China imposed a 100% tariff on major Canadian exports, escalating a wider trade war. In addition, speculation regarding an early federal election in Canada contributes to market uncertainty. While the US Dollar is being burdened with the fear of a possible economic downturn, increasing US Treasury yields provide some respite. With shifting global trade dynamics and unfolding political events, USD/CAD remains in focus for market players. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s imposition of 100% tariff on Canadian exports can be a big burden for CAD, which could keep USD/CAD in bearish grip in the near future. • Increased speculation regarding an early federal election by PM Mark Carney could enhance volatility and investor risk aversion against the Canadian Dollar. • Albeit economic slowdown fears, increasing US Treasury yields could potentially cap downside pressure on the USD in the next few sessions. • Investors will be keenly observing how fresh US and China tariffs redefine North American trade flows and impact USD/CAD sentiment. The USD/CAD currency pair is charting a complicated course defined by increased trade tensions and political uncertainty. The Canadian Dollar is still on the back foot after China levied a 100% tariff on major Canadian exports, further heating up the ongoing trade war. Speculation surrounding an early federal election in Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney further obscures the economic outlook. Simultaneously, the US Dollar is under pressure from fears of a possible slump in the US economy, although increasing Treasury yields are providing some support. As the world markets process these events, the USD/CAD pair remains steady around 1.4350, retaining its bullish bias. USD/CAD remains firm around 1.4350 as rising trade tensions and political instability in Canada counteract CAD weakness, while US economic worries limit Dollar strength. • USD/CAD is trading near 1.4350 with a bullish bias as global trade uncertainties and political instability in Canada keep the USD/CAD steady. • China slaps Canadian rapeseed oil, peas, and other goods with a 100% tariff, which fuels trade tensions. • Canadian Dollar is hampered by trade tensions against China and the US affecting investor morale. • Speculation intensifies over Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s possible call for an early election in April or May 2025. • US Dollar softens slightly amid concerns of a US economy slowdown, capping bullish pressure. • Increasing US Treasury yields provide some support to the USD, albeit overall bearish pressure. • Markets remain vigilant in anticipation of the new tariffs effective on March 20, keeping a close eye on geopolitical and economic news. Trade tensions still hold center stage in the economic environment, particularly after China imposed a 100% tariff on a number of Canadian products such as rapeseed oil, peas, and pork. The action follows Canada’s previous tariff moves and has put more pressure on an already strained trade relationship. The move has put Canada’s trade prospects into question, with companies and investors responding to the possibility of affecting exports and the overall economy. These are among a wider global shift that is driven by protectionism, with nations reviewing their trade approach. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView With added uncertainty, political events in Canada have received more attention. There is speculation that Prime Minister Mark Carney will call an early federal election, potentially late April or early May, ahead of the scheduled October 2025 date. Such political maneuvers would carry high stakes for policy direction and investor sentiment. Conversely, there are also fears emerging about the prospects of the US economy’s growth, even though the economic fundamentals remain under close observation. Against this backdrop, market participants are closely monitoring both trade policies and political actions that may influence the economic environment over the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  USD/CAD is showing a robust consolidation trend around the 1.4350–1.4360 level, which reflects a possible accumulation phase. The pair has sustained its bullish setup following recent advances, indicating that buyers remain dominant. Major support is seen at 1.4300, whereas near-term resistance is placed close to the 1.4400 level. A follow-through above this resistance may invite further upside strength, whereas a fall below support may herald a short-term setback. Overall, the pair’s consistent placement close to current highs indicates underlying interest in buying amidst current market uncertainties. FORECAST If trade tensions increasingly become more bearish on the Canadian Dollar, USD/CAD may further extend its climb in the future sessions. Breaking above the resistance level of 1.4400 can bring renewed bullish force, and this may push the pair to test higher levels. Moreover, even the slightest news of political turmoil in Canada, such as an announcement of holding an early election, can support further USD strength against the CAD. Rising US Treasury yields would also offer a basis for sustained upper bias in the pair. Conversely, if diplomatic talks between Canada and her trading partners signal ebbing tensions, the Canadian Dollar may gain stature, piling pressure on USD/CAD downwards. Further, if future US economic numbers indicate a more severe-than-anticipated slowdown, this may detract from investor morale in the US Dollar. A fall below the 1.4300 support level may initiate a corrective move towards lower levels, particularly if global sentiment turns risk-on or oil prices rise, which generally benefits the CAD.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Firm in Face of German Debt Reforms and ECB Rate Decision: Market Analysis and Key Drivers

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  • March 6, 2025
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EUR/USD stays firm at the 1.0800 level as investors await the highly expected interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% on the cards. Market mood is influenced by Germany’s mooted 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which may affect inflation and economic growth. In the meantime, US President Trump’s temporary easing of car tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated fears of a trade war, with the result that the US Dollar has weakened. Soft US private jobs data have also raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June. Now, investors wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks and future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases to guide the markets further. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank is likely to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, impacting EUR/USD price action and investor sentiment. • Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and extended borrowing capacity may affect inflation expectations and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reduced trade tensions, but possible tariffs on German cars continue to be a major risk. • Soft US private hiring data have fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Fed, which makes the release of Friday’s NFP a highly market-moving event. EUR/USD continues to be a hot topic for traders as significant economic and policy events are played out. The ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% has the potential to influence future monetary policy, while Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In addition, President Trump of the US has temporarily softened auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which has softened trade tensions but leaves uncertainty over possible tariffs on German automobiles. Furthermore, disappointing US private employment data have also spurred hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and thus, coming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release will be a pivotal driver in establishing the direction of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0800 as the market looks to the ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate reduction and Christine Lagarde’s comments. Germany’s infrastructure fund and US trade policy contribute to the uncertainty, while soft US jobs data drives speculation of a June Fed rate cut. • The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, influencing EUR/USD action. • A planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and eased borrowing ceilings could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico softens trade tensions, but there is still uncertainty regarding possible tariffs on German cars. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day in a row, trading around 104.00, its lowest since four months ago. • Soft private sector employment growth has increased hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate reduction, impacting USD strength. • The pair is still robust above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI > 60, which means bullish momentum. • Market participants are monitoring the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report closely for more cues on the direction of Fed monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair remains steady as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid Germany’s proposed 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which aims to boost economic growth and could influence inflation in the Eurozone. Traders are eagerly waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision remarks for signals about future policy guidance and the overall economic landscape. Meanwhile, market sentiments are still under pressure due to fears of possible US tariffs on European products, especially German cars. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade actions and economic indicators continue to be major drivers of the forex market. US President Donald Trump’s temporary easing of automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated trade tensions, but uncertainty persists with possible tariffs on European goods. Separately, soft US private jobs data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Investors now await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for additional insight into the health of the US labor market. Any meaningful changes in economic statistics or monetary policy decisions made by the Fed or ECB can influence currency trends in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is well placed around the 1.0800 mark, demonstrating bullish sentiment on the charts. The pair has convincingly broken above the December 6 high of 1.0630, further strengthening an uptrend. It is still trading in excess of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0640, marking long-term robustness. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, a sign of extended buying pressure. On the down side, January 27’s high of 1.0533 is the critical support area, and the subsequent resistance point for Euro bulls is the November 6 high of 1.0937. In general, the technical perspective remains bullish for additional gains unless substantial bearish drivers arise. FORECAST EUR/USD might enjoy additional strength if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a prudent stance even with the anticipated rate reduction. If ECB President Christine Lagarde provides cues of a diminished rate-cut pace in the future or hints at optimism regarding Eurozone economic rebound, the Euro can pick up momentum. Also, Germany’s planned infrastructure fund would help boost investor sentiment about the region’s growth prospects. A softer US Dollar, based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, might also sustain EUR/USD’s rally. In case the pair convincingly crosses above the 1.0937 resistance mark, it would test higher levels in the future sessions. EUR/USD risks facing downward pressures if the ECB turns more dovish, reflecting further aggressive rate cuts. Any weakness in the Eurozone economics, notably in

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